In the biggest college football matchup of the week, the Texas Longhorns head to Sanford Stadium to battle the Georgia Bulldogs.
The pregame narrative: It’s a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which Georgia won in overtime. Now, No. 5 Georgia has the inside track on a return to Atlanta, while No. 10 Texas likely needs a win to control its College Football Playoff destiny.
Check out my Texas vs. Georgia predictions in this +320 same-game parlay, featuring Arch Manning and Zachariah Branch.
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Texas vs. Georgia predictions
Parlay: Georgia ML | Manning over 220.5 pass yards | Branch 50+ rec. yards (+320)
Georgia moneyline (-240): Texas has righted the ship with a four-game winning streak, which includes a pair of victories over then-top-10 opponents (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt).
But with two losses already, the margin for error to make the CFP is razor thin.
I don’t think Georgia will make things any easier, as a three-point loss to No. 4 Alabama is the only blemish on the Dawgs’ resume.
Georgia was an underdog in both matchups vs. Texas last season, and the Dawgs won them both outright.
In terms of common opponents in 2025, Georgia has the obvious edge. UGA beat Florida on the road and won its matchups against Mississippi State and Kentucky by three scores apiece.
Texas, meanwhile, lost to Florida on the road and needed overtime to win its matchups against Mississippi State and Kentucky.
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Longhorns vs. Bulldogs SGP picks
Manning over 220.5 passing yards (-118): Texas will likely have a better time trying to move the ball through the air rather than on the ground.
Given that, I think this is a very doable yardage number for Manning to clear.
In his first year at the helm for the Longhorns, the quarterback with ample NFL lineage has had some ups and downs.
-> Bet on Arch Manning vs. No. 5 Georgia
But the past six games remind you why this guy has starred in many scouts’ dreams:
- 12 TDs
- 3 INTs
- 8.4 yards/attempt
- 260+ yards in four of six games
Georgia’s run defence ranks 19th in EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. The pass defence ranks 100th in EPA per play.
In three games against ranked opponents this year, Georgia has allowed an average of 304.7 passing yards.
Branch 50+ receiving yards (-240): I’m loving Branch’s involvement lately, and I think he’s a pretty safe bet to clear this yardage milestone in Saturday’s big game.
Branch, who was catching passes from Caleb Williams at USC two years ago, is in his first season at Georgia. He had some boom plays early on, but now his opportunity volume has swelled now that he’s settled in.
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Look at his per-game averages from earlier in the season compared to now:
- Games 1-5: 5.6 targets, 3.6 catches, 46.8 yards, 2-3 vs. this milestone
- Games 6-9: 10.0 targets, 8.8 catches, 77.0 yards, 4-0 vs. this milestone
Branch has at least eight receptions in four straight games and is the obvious alpha receiver for the Dawgs.
Like Georgia, the Texas defence is much better against the run than the pass (fourth in EPA per rush, 56th in EPA per pass).
Texas vs. Georgia predictions made at 1:42 p.m. ET on Nov. 14, 2025.
