Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Best NBA prop picks Nov. 16: Fade Flagg, capitalize on plus matchups for Wagner and Claxton

Cooper Flagg is still the odds-on favourite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, and he doesn’t need high volume as a 3-point shooter to stay in that spot.

Today’s NBA props narrative: I’m fading Flagg’s 3s prop on Sunday evening as one of my three NBA prop bets. Elsewhere, Nic Claxton should take advantage of arguably the best possible matchup available to him.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 16, featuring Franz Wagner.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 16

Best bet: Flagg under 1.5 threes (-154)

I think Flagg will score his fair share of points tonight. I just don’t think they’ll be from outside.

Flagg and the Mavericks face the Portland Trail Blazers, who typically don’t let opponents thrive from 3-point land.

Portland allows the second-fewest 3-point attempts (33.0/game) and the third-fewest makes (11.6/game).

Where the Blazers typically get gashed is in the midrange, which happens to be where Flagg thrives.

-> Bet on tonight’s five-game NBA slate

According to Cleaning The Glass, Portland allows the third-highest FG% from all midrange shots (48.5%).

Flagg attempts 40.0% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 87th percentile in the NBA.

If Flagg was on a heater from beyond the arc, fading him at 1.5 threes might give me pause. But he’s shooting 26.9% on 4.0 attempts per game this season, so he’s better off trying to score from inside.

And based on how Portland sets up its defence, Flagg is better suited to get buckets inside the arc anyway.

Key stat: This under is 8-5 on the season, cashing in five of Flagg’s past six games.

Best NBA picks

Wagner over 1.5 threes (-175): With Paolo Banchero set to miss his second consecutive game, I’ll gladly pay some extra vig for a line this low.

Last time out (with Banchero on the sidelines), Wagner shot 3-of-9 from 3-point range.

In 21 games sans-Banchero since the start of last season, Wagner has averaged 6.7 attempted 3s and is 12-9 vs. this line.

-> Bet on Franz Wagner in Magic vs. Rockets

Desmond Bane hasn’t panned out yet as a long-range assassin for the Magic. Wagner, who’s shooting 35.5% from deep so far this season, has surprisingly been the more reliable shooter between the two of them.

Both should have an opportunity to produce against the Houston Rockets, who allow the fourth-most attempted 3s per game (39.8).

Wagner is 8-5 vs. this prop and should land on the winning side again tonight.

NBA player prop predictions

Claxton over 24.5 points/rebounds (-108): Claxton has taken a step up as a scorer this year and a step back as a rebounder. But I like his chances to excel in both statistical categories tonight.

Here’s how opposing centres have fared against the Washington Wizards so far this year, per Fantasy Pros:

4th in PPG (25.77)
1st in RPG (18.42)

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Claxton is averaging a career-best 15.0 PPG on a career-high 9.7 field goal attempts.

As a rebounder, his 6.9 RPG average is his lowest since the 2021-22 season. But the ineptitude of the Wizards should help.

Claxton is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight games, averaging a combined 24.9 points/rebounds.

NBA prop picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on Nov. 16, 2025.

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Cowboys vs. Raiders MNF Week 11 SGP predictions: Look for Dallas to win, Pickens to produce

A pair of struggling teams aim to turn their luck on Monday Night Football in Las Vegas.

The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys are on the road to face the Raiders in a battle of sub-.500 squads. Tre Tucker was quiet last week, but he should have ample opportunity to thrive against a brutal Dallas pass defence.

Check out my Cowboys vs. Raiders SGP predictions for Nov. 17, featuring Tucker and George Pickens.

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Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions

SGP: Tucker over 46.5 rec. yards | Pickens 60+ rec. yards | Cowboys ML (+380)

Tucker over 46.5 receiving yards (-177): After the Jakobi Meyers trade, Tucker ascended to the WR1 role for the Raiders.

He didn’t do much with that status last week, catching two of three targets for 28 yards. But that was against the Broncos’ superb pass defence.

Now, Tucker will face a Cowboys pass defence that is among the worst in the NFL:

30th in success rate
30th in EPA per dropback
29th in net yards/attempt

-> Bet on Dallas vs. Las Vegas on MNF

Brock Bowers is the top pass-catching option for Las Vegas, mind you, but Dallas’ defence should provide enough opportunities for both him and Tucker to produce.

Before last week’s dud vs. Denver, Tucker had averaged 53.4 yards this season.

He has been the snap leader in the Raiders WR room in every game since Week 3.

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Monday Night Football SGP picks

Pickens 60+ receiving yards (-143): With or without CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys’ lineup, Pickens has been a helpful asset throughout the season.

During Lamb’s three-game absence earlier this season, Pickens feasted for 19 catches and four TDs.

Pickens is TD-free in three games since Lamb returned, but his yardage production hasn’t waned.

-> Bet on Pickens to shine vs. the Raiders

Here’s what Pickens produced from Weeks 7-9:

75+ yards in all three games
8.0 targets/game
5.7 catches/game

Pickens is now 5-1 vs. this yardage milestone when playing with Lamb, and he’s averaging 84.9 yards/game on the season.

Cowboys moneyline (-175): I don’t have a lot of nice things to say about either of these teams, but the Raiders’ situation is particularly bleak.

Las Vegas (2-7) has a -81 point differential. Since Week 2, the Raiders’ only win came at home against the lowly Tennessee Titans.

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Dallas (3-5-1) has a -14 point differential. The Cowboys’ season could look a lot different if the defence wasn’t allowing the second-most yards and points in the NFL.

I don’t expect the Raiders’ offence to really make the Cowboys pay on Monday. Las Vegas has scored seven or fewer points in three of its past five games.

Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions made at 3:07 p.m. ET Nov. 16, 2025.

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Lions vs. Eagles Week 11 SNF TD picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a disgruntled A.J. Brown, have value

A pair of star receivers are worth backing at plus-money odds on Sunday Night Football, as the Detroit Lions face the Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: Philly’s A.J. Brown hasn’t been shy about his frustrations this season, and he’s getting a quality matchup that should give him a good chance to score. As for Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, there’s been nothing for either him or his team to complain about.

Check out our top Lions vs. Eagles SNF TD picks.

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Lions vs. Eagles TD picks: Week 11

Best Bet: St. Brown to score a TD (+128)

It’s difficult not to bite on a price like this with St. Brown, who’s as active in the red zone as any receiver.

St. Brown leads the NFL in red zone receptions (13). He’s second in RZ targets (17) and TDs (7).

His opportunity volume overall is also elite. St. Brown has a 31.4% target share, per Rotowire, which ranks in the 99th percentile.

Inside the 10-yard line, St. Brown has 1+ targets in six of nine games.

-> Bet on Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. the Eagles on Sunday Night Football

Last week, St. Brown had a quiet day by his standards, catching five passes for 58 yards. But he did see three targets inside the 10-yard line, and he converted one of them into a nine-yard score.

The Eagles’ defence hasn’t allowed many passing TDs this year, but I’m buying St. Brown’s target volume more than anything.

Philly is fully healthy on defence, meaning there will be plenty of capable run stuffers on the field. St. Brown should get some quality looks, as usual.

Key stat: St. Brown is 5-3 vs. this prop with eight touchdowns in his past eight games.

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Sunday Night Football TD picks

Brown to score a TD (+150): Brown is the squeakiest wheel in the NFL right now, and I think he’ll finally get some grease on Sunday night.

Coming off his third consecutive season as a second-team All-Pro wideout, Brown has been curiously quiet on the field this year. But he’s letting everyone hear about it off the field.

In the latest chapter of an ongoing soap opera, Brown reportedly met with Eagles ownership this week to express his discontent, according to ESPN.

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It’s no guarantee that Brown airing some grievances will lead to an influx of opportunities. But this week’s matchup should have Philly looking his way anyway.

Detroit has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers through nine games, which works out to 1.44 per week. That’s tied for the second-most in the NFL.

Brown has only two red zone targets since Week 4, but the Eagles have only attempted six red zone passes in that span. So it’s not like he’s routinely been passed over for other receivers.

Three of Detroit’s starting defensive backs are out, so Brown should be able to take advantage.

Lions vs. Eagles predictions made at 1:04 p.m. ET Nov. 16, 2025.

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Hawks vs. Suns SGP predictions Nov. 16: Back Phoenix to cover an alt spread, Brooks to keep scoring

The Phoenix Suns and Atlanta Hawks are both rolling, but only one can come out of the Mortgage Matchup Center with a win on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is on a five-game win streak, winning each of those games by at least nine points. Atlanta is a slight road favourite tonight, though, riding the hot hand of Jalen Johnson.

Check out my Hawks vs. Suns SGP predictions for Nov. 16, featuring Johnson and Dillon Brooks.

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Hawks vs. Suns SGP

Parlay: Suns +4.5 | Johnson over 37.5 PRA | Brooks 15+ points (+350)

Suns +4.5 (-175): It’s tough to bet against either of these teams right now, as they’re both 5-1 ATS in their past six games and 8-5 SU on the season.

But in an SGP format, I’m happy rolling with the Suns while banking a few extra points.

Phoenix ranks ninth in net rating (+4.5), which is slightly better than Atlanta (+3.4, 12th)

The Suns are 6-1 SU at home, covering this number each time. They’ve also covered a +4.5 spread in nine of their past 10 games overall.

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Both teams have been off for the past two days, but Phoenix should still have somewhat of a rest advantage.

The Suns have been at home since Nov. 13, while the Hawks are about to play in a fifth city in nine days.

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NBA SGP legs

Johnson over 37.5 points/rebounds/assists (-121): Johnson is making his ascent to stardom in Year 5 with the Hawks, and it’s even easier for him to do that with Trae Young on the sidelines.

Young (knee), who hasn’t played since Oct. 29, will sit out again tonight. Here’s what Johnson has accomplished in his point guard’s absence:

22.0 PPG
11.0 RPG
7.4 APG
38+ PRA in 4 of 7

-> Bet on Jalen Johnson to put on a show in Phoenix!

Johnson is a double-double threat as a rebounder every night, but he’s also leading the Hawks in assists with Young out. The 23-year-old does it all, and he’s flirting with a 60.0 FG% in the process.

According to Fantasy Pros, the Suns are allowing the fourth-most points and the second-most assists to small forwards. Johnson should go off.

Brooks 15+ points (-186): Speaking of going off, how about the start Brooks is having this season?

The Mississauga, Ontario native has been a reliable scorer in all seven games with the Suns, who he was traded to this offseason in the Kevin Durant deal.

Brooks is getting to the line at a career-best rate (7.1 free throws per 100 possessions), and he’s cashing in at a career-best 93.3% clip.

Adept free-throw shooting will raise the floor for any scorer, and in Brooks’ case, it has helped lift him to 15+ points in every game so far. He’s averaging 20.3 PPG with his new team.

Brooks also happens to be coming off his top-scoring output of the season — 32 points on 12-of-18 shooting — so I’m happy to bet on him staying hot.

Hawks vs. Suns SGP made at 11:10 a.m. ET 11/16/2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 16: Fade Flagg, capitalize on plus matchups for Wagner and Claxton

Cooper Flagg is still the odds-on favourite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, and he doesn’t need high volume as a 3-point shooter to stay in that spot.

Today’s NBA props narrative: I’m fading Flagg’s 3s prop on Sunday evening as one of my three NBA prop bets. Elsewhere, Nic Claxton should take advantage of arguably the best possible matchup available to him.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 16, featuring Franz Wagner.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 16

Best bet: Flagg under 1.5 threes (-136)

I think Flagg will score his fair share of points tonight. I just don’t think they’ll be from outside.

Flagg and the Mavericks face the Portland Trail Blazers, who typically don’t let opponents thrive from 3-point land.

Portland allows the second-fewest 3-point attempts (33.0/game) and the third-fewest makes (11.6/game).

Where the Blazers typically get gashed is in the midrange, which happens to be where Flagg thrives.

-> Bet on tonight’s five-game NBA slate

According to Cleaning The Glass, Portland allows the third-highest FG% from all midrange shots (48.5%).

Flagg attempts 40.0% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 87th percentile in the NBA.

If Flagg was on a heater from beyond the arc, fading him at 1.5 threes might give me pause. But he’s shooting 26.9% on 4.0 attempts per game this season, so he’s better off trying to score from inside.

And based on how Portland sets up its defence, Flagg is better suited to get buckets inside the arc anyway.

Key stat: This under is 8-5 on the season, cashing in five of Flagg’s past six games.

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Best NBA picks

Wagner over 1.5 threes (-130): With Paolo Banchero set to miss his second consecutive game, I’ll gladly pay some extra vig for a line this low.

Last time out (with Banchero on the sidelines), Wagner shot 3-of-9 from 3-point range.

In 21 games sans-Banchero since the start of last season, Wagner has averaged 6.7 attempted 3s and is 12-9 vs. this line.

-> Bet on Franz Wagner in Magic vs. Rockets

Desmond Bane hasn’t panned out yet as a long-range assassin for the Magic. Wagner, who’s shooting 35.5% from deep so far this season, has surprisingly been the more reliable shooter between the two of them.

Both should have an opportunity to produce against the Houston Rockets, who allow the fourth-most attempted 3s per game (39.8).

Wagner is 8-5 vs. this prop and should land on the winning side again tonight.

NBA player prop predictions

Claxton over 24.5 points/rebounds (-132): Claxton has taken a step up as a scorer this year and a step back as a rebounder. But I like his chances to excel in both statistical categories tonight.

Here’s how opposing centres have fared against the Washington Wizards so far this year, per Fantasy Pros:

4th in PPG (25.77)
1st in RPG (18.42)

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Claxton is averaging a career-best 15.0 PPG on a career-high 9.7 field goal attempts.

As a rebounder, his 6.9 RPG average is his lowest since the 2021-22 season. But the ineptitude of the Wizards should help.

Claxton is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight games, averaging a combined 24.9 points/rebounds.

NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on Nov. 16, 2025.

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Lions vs. Eagles Week 11 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on Philadelphia to cover, DeVonta Smith to come up big

Sunday Night Football features two NFC heavyweights this week, as the Detroit Lions visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: The defending Super Bowl champions are back home after winning under the lights at Lambeau Field in Week 10. This is Detroit’s fourth game as a road dog this season, and so far the Lions are 1-2 ATS in that situation.

Check out my Lions vs. Eagles picks for Nov. 16, featuring a prop bet on DeVonta Smith.

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Lions vs. Eagles picks

Best Bet: Smith over 55.5 receiving yards (-118)

While A.J. Brown has been throwing a very public pity party, Smith has somewhat quietly been turning up for the Eagles.

In last week’s prime time matchup against a stout Green Bay defence (No. 5 in yards allowed), Smith caught four of seven targets for a game-high 69 yards.

That included a 36-yard touchdown reception, which proved to be the difference in Philly’s win.

-> Bet on DeVonta Smith and more Lions vs. Eagles prop markets

Smith is viewed as the WR2 behind Brown, but … are we sure that’s the pecking order?

In one additional game played, Smith leads Brown in targets (+8), receptions (+15) and yards (+249).

Smith has as many snaps or more than Brown in three of their past four games together.

Smith has a 95th-percentile target share (27.3%) and a 93rd-percentile air yards share (37.4%), per Rotowire. Those are WR1 numbers.

With his slight build, Smith certainly doesn’t look like a WR1 in the way that Brown (6-foot-1, 226 pounds) does. But the results speak for themselves.

The Lions have four defensive backs on their injury report, and Smith is best suited to take advantage of a potentially depleted secondary.

Key stat: Smith is 5-2 vs. this yardage total in his past seven games, averaging 5.9 receptions and 84.0 yards in that span.

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SNF ATS prediction

Eagles -2.5 (-112): Detroit’s laundry list of players on the injury report concerns me against this physical Philadelphia squad.

Three-fifths of the starting offensive line, headlined by Penei Sewell, have been limited or absent from practice at least once this week.

Starting tight end Sam LaPorta failed to practice Wednesday or Thursday.

There’s a good chance that both of Detroit’s starting cornerbacks, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed, will be out Sunday.

In a matchup between two quality teams, injury report data can make a huge difference. Philadelphia had everyone at practice on Wednesday, and only one player (centre Cam Jurgens) was limited.

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The Eagles have won and covered in three straight games. They also have much better results against the four common opponents that they share with the Lions: the Packers, Commanders, Vikings and Buccaneers.

Philly is 4-0 SU and ATS agains those teams, while Detroit is 1-3 SU and ATS.

Lions vs. Eagles picks made at 4:25 p.m. ET Nov. 14, 2025.

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Lions vs. Eagles Week 11 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on Philadelphia to cover, DeVonta Smith to come up big

Sunday Night Football features two NFC heavyweights this week, as the Detroit Lions visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: The defending Super Bowl champions are back home after winning under the lights at Lambeau Field in Week 10. This is Detroit’s fourth game as a road dog this season, and so far the Lions are 1-2 ATS in that situation.

Check out my Lions vs. Eagles picks for Nov. 16, featuring a prop bet on DeVonta Smith.

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Lions vs. Eagles picks

Best Bet: Smith over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)

While A.J. Brown has been throwing a very public pity party, Smith has somewhat quietly been turning up for the Eagles.

In last week’s prime time matchup against a stout Green Bay defence (No. 5 in yards allowed), Smith caught four of seven targets for a game-high 69 yards.

That included a 36-yard touchdown reception, which proved to be the difference in Philly’s win.

-> Bet on DeVonta Smith and more Lions vs. Eagles prop markets

Smith is viewed as the WR2 behind Brown, but … are we sure that’s the pecking order?

In one additional game played, Smith leads Brown in targets (+8), receptions (+15) and yards (+249).

Smith has as many snaps or more than Brown in three of their past four games together.

Smith has a 95th-percentile target share (27.3%) and a 93rd-percentile air yards share (37.4%), per Rotowire. Those are WR1 numbers.

With his slight build, Smith certainly doesn’t look like a WR1 in the way that Brown (6-foot-1, 226 pounds) does. But the results speak for themselves.

The Lions have four defensive backs on their injury report, and Smith is best suited to take advantage of a potentially depleted secondary.

Key stat: Smith is 5-2 vs. this yardage total in his past seven games, averaging 5.9 receptions and 84.0 yards in that span.

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SNF ATS prediction

Eagles -2.5 (-113): Detroit’s laundry list of players on the injury report concerns me against this physical Philadelphia squad.

Three-fifths of the starting offensive line, headlined by Penei Sewell, have been limited or absent from practice at least once this week.

Starting tight end Sam LaPorta failed to practice Wednesday or Thursday.

There’s a good chance that both of Detroit’s starting cornerbacks, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed, will be out Sunday.

In a matchup between two quality teams, injury report data can make a huge difference. Philadelphia had everyone at practice on Wednesday, and only one player (centre Cam Jurgens) was limited.

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The Eagles have won and covered in three straight games. They also have much better results against the four common opponents that they share with the Lions: the Packers, Commanders, Vikings and Buccaneers.

Philly is 4-0 SU and ATS agains those teams, while Detroit is 1-3 SU and ATS.

Lions vs. Eagles picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET Nov. 14, 2025.

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Warriors vs. Spurs prop picks Nov. 14: Look for Wembanyama to dominate, fade Green as a scorer

For the second time in three days, the Golden State Warriors face the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center.

The latest: On Wednesday, a 46-point effort from Steph Curry lifted the Warriors to a 125-120 win in South Texas. It was the Spurs’ first home loss of the season, and they’re favoured to return to the win column tonight.

Check out my Warriors vs. Spurs picks for Friday, Nov. 14, featuring Victor Wembanyama and Draymond Green.

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Warriors vs. Spurs picks

Best bet: Green under 8.5 points (-118)

Green is in an unfair fight tonight, and I think he’s easy to fade even at a lowly number like this.

Listed as the Warriors’ starting centre right now, the 6-foot-6 Green is nearly a foot shorter than his frontcourt counterpart, Wembanyama.

Friday’s performance from Green illustrated the matchup issues:

1-of-10 shooting
6 points
4 turnovers
Fouled out

Green’s flat night included 0-for-7 shooting from 3-point range.

-> Bet on Wemby vs. Golden State!

Why did he feel compelled to continue launching from deep when that’s not his game? Probably because the most fearsome defensive presence in the league was waiting for him in the paint.

At any rate, I don’t expect Green to shoot as much in tonight’s rematch. His 10 field goal attempts and seven 3-point attempts were both his second-highest totals of the season … and that didn’t pay off.

San Antonio ranks fourth in points allowed and sixth in defensive rating. This is a tough team to get buckets against, and Green is not that guy.

This under is 3-1 in Green’s four career matchups vs. Wemby in San Antonio.

Key stat: Green has gone under 7.5 points in seven of his past nine games, averaging 6.7 PPG in that span.

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Wembanyama prop prediction

Wembanyama over 17.5 rebounds/assists (-118): One thing I like about this number is that Wembanyama can clear it on rebounds alone. He’s already done so twice this year.

The 7-foot-4 superstar, who leads the NBA in blocks and defensive rebounds per game, also has a passing touch.

He just lit up the Warriors with 10 assists in Wednesday’s matchup — to go with 15 rebounds.

-> Check out tonight’s Warriors vs. Spurs prop markets

So, yes, he soared past this rebounds/assists line last time out. Wemby is averaging 17.0 RA through 11 games.

I know Wemby can get a dozen boards in his sleep, but I wanted to loop in assists with my pick because this seems like a good matchup for him.

The Warriors are allowing the fourth-most assists to opposing centres (4.92/game), per Fantasy Pros.

In five career matchups vs. Golden State, Wembanyama is averaging 6.2 assists.

Warriors vs. Spurs picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on Nov. 14, 2025.

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NFL Week 11 TD picks and predictions: Rashee Rice, Zach Charbonnet have value to score

Rashee Rice has scored in all three games since returning from his suspension, and I’m backing him at a plus-money price to keep that streak alive in Week 11.

The pregame narrative: Rice and the Kansas City Chiefs face the vaunted Denver Broncos defence in the 4 p.m. window. KC is funnelling the ball to its top playmaker, and that should continue. Earlier on, look for Sean Tucker to take advantage of the Buffalo Bills’ suspect run defence.

Check out my top NFL Week 11 TD picks for Sunday, Nov. 16, featuring Zach Charbonnet.

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NFL Week 11 TD picks

Best bet: Tucker to score (+220)

Bucky Irving, who hasn’t suited up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers since Week 4, returned to practice in limited fashion this week. He’s expected to remain out, though, leaving Tucker and Rachaad White to man the backfield.

White remains the lead back, but only because of his pass-catching work. In terms of handoffs, things have levelled out.

From Weeks 5-7, Tucker only had 10 total carries. White had 41.

But in Tampa’s past two games, White’s carry advantage is only 23-21.

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On two fewer carries in those two recent games, Tucker has out-gained White by 22 yards. The Bucs clearly like White as a receiving option, but they shouldn’t stop handing Tucker the rock.

With that in mind, Sunday’s matchup against Buffalo is a very compelling one at this price point.

Buffalo’s defence ranks 31st in rushing yards per attempt (5.5) and rushing TDs (14).

The Bills have allowed at least one rushing TD in seven straight games, with multiple rushing TDs allowed in four of those.

Key stat: Tampa Bay didn’t have any red zone rushes last time out, but in its previous game, Tucker had three carries inside the five-yard line (and he scored on one of them).

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 11!

NFL Week 11

Charbonnet to score (+120): Charbonnet is in a very even timeshare with Kenneth Walker in Seattle. But around the goal line, Charbonnet looks like an RB1.

Since Week 4, Charbonnet has 11 carries and a target inside the 10-yard line. He converted those touches into five TDs.

In the same span, Walker has six carries and zero targets inside the 10 — turning that into zero TDs.

-> Bet on Seahawks vs. Rams prop markets

Although Walker has more carries overall and has been a more efficient runner, it’s clear that he’s not the main guy in the scoring area.

Inside the 10-yard line, Seattle has had 27 run plays and 13 pass plays this season. The Los Angeles Rams have a strong defence, but I’m investing in the opportunity I expect Charbonnet to see in goal-to-go situations.

Rice to score (+115): Get the ball into Rice’s hands and watch what he does with it.

After missing the first six weeks due to a suspension, Rice has fallen right back into a favourable spot in the Chiefs’ top-10 offence.

In three games, he has …

26 targets
5 targets inside the 10-yard line
2 carries inside the 10-yard line

With all of those looks, Rice has posted 233 scrimmage yards and four TDs. He’s 3-0 vs. this prop.

The Denver Broncos have one of the best defences in the NFL, but the Chiefs are in an offensive rhythm after a slow-ish start.

Rice has as good a chance as any KC player to score at Mile High on Sunday.

NFL TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 14, 2025.

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Texas vs. Georgia college football Week 12 SGP predictions: Back the Bulldogs to win, Arch Manning to rack up passing yards

In the biggest college football matchup of the week, the Texas Longhorns head to Sanford Stadium to battle the Georgia Bulldogs.

The pregame narrative: It’s a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which Georgia won in overtime. Now, No. 5 Georgia has the inside track on a return to Atlanta, while No. 10 Texas likely needs a win to control its College Football Playoff destiny.

Check out my Texas vs. Georgia predictions in this +320 same-game parlay, featuring Arch Manning and Zachariah Branch.

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Texas vs. Georgia predictions

Parlay: Georgia ML | Manning over 225.5 pass yards | Branch over 63.5 rec. yards (+375)

Georgia moneyline (-250): Texas has righted the ship with a four-game winning streak, which includes a pair of victories over then-top-10 opponents (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt).

But with two losses already, the margin for error to make the CFP is razor thin.

I don’t think Georgia will make things any easier, as a three-point loss to No. 4 Alabama is the only blemish on the Dawgs’ resume.

Georgia was an underdog in both matchups vs. Texas last season, and the Dawgs won them both outright.

In terms of common opponents in 2025, Georgia has the obvious edge. UGA beat Florida on the road and won its matchups against Mississippi State and Kentucky by three scores apiece.

Texas, meanwhile, lost to Florida on the road and needed overtime to win its matchups against Mississippi State and Kentucky.

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Longhorns vs. Bulldogs SGP picks

Manning over 225.5 passing yards (-118): Texas will likely have a better time trying to move the ball through the air rather than on the ground.

Given that, I think this is a very doable yardage number for Manning to clear.

In his first year at the helm for the Longhorns, the quarterback with ample NFL lineage has had some ups and downs.

-> Bet on Arch Manning vs. No. 5 Georgia

But the past six games remind you why this guy has starred in many scouts’ dreams:

12 TDs
3 INTs
8.4 yards/attempt
260+ yards in four of six games

Georgia’s run defence ranks 19th in EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. The pass defence ranks 100th in EPA per play.

In three games against ranked opponents this year, Georgia has allowed an average of 304.7 passing yards.

Branch over 63.5 receiving yards (-118): I’m loving Branch’s involvement lately, and I think he’s a strong bet to clear this yardage total in Saturday’s big game.

Branch, who was catching passes from Caleb Williams at USC two years ago, is in his first season at Georgia. He had some boom plays early on, but now his opportunity volume has swelled now that he’s settled in.

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Look at his per-game averages from earlier in the season compared to now:

Games 1-5: 5.6 targets, 3.6 catches, 46.8 yards

Games 6-9: 10.0 targets, 8.8 catches, 77.0 yards

Branch has at least eight receptions in four straight games and is the obvious alpha receiver for the Dawgs.

Like Georgia, the Texas defence is much better against the run than the pass (fourth in EPA per rush, 56th in EPA per pass).

Texas vs. Georgia predictions made at 2:22 p.m. ET on Nov. 14, 2025.

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