Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Bills vs. Texans TNF Week 12 SGP predictions: Fade Josh Allen against Houston’s top-ranked defence

Bills vs. Texans predictions

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills kick off NFL Week 12 action with a Thursday Night Football date in Houston.

The pregame narrative: The Texans, who likely won’t have C.J. Stroud available, are 6-point home underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo has lost two of four games this year as a road favourite.

Check out my Bills vs. Texans SGP predictions for Nov. 20, featuring Allen and Woody Marks.

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Bills vs. Texans predictions

SGP: Allen under 224.5 pass yards | Marks over 60.5 rush yards | Under 47.5 points (+320)

Allen under 224.5 passing yards (-118): Coming off Allen’s epic performance last week, I get that it might be difficult to sell anyone on taking an under with him. But let’s show some respect to the Texans’ defence.

  • Houston ranks No. 1 in yards and points allowed this season.
  • The Texans have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and are tied for the third-most interceptions (10 in 10 games).
  • According to RBSDM.com, Houston’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per dropback and No. 2 in success rate.

-> Bet on Buffalo vs. Houston on TNF

Yes, Allen had six total TDs last week and has now thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games. But now he’s facing the toughest defence in the league — and on the road, no less.

Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of four road games this year.

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Marks over 60.5 rushing yards (-118): Marks squandered a juicy matchup last week against the Tennessee Titans, but he’s got an even juicier matchup on Thursday.

The Bills’ run defence is among the very worst in the NFL:

  • 32nd in rushing TDs (17)
  • 31st in yards per game (153.0)
  • 31st in yards per rush (5.4)
  • 30th in EPA per rush

-> Build your own SGP featuring Allen and Marks here!

Do I love that Marks only produced 44 rushing yards last week on 18 carries? No, but I am encouraged by that workload, which was a season-high.

Meanwhile, Texans backup Nick Chubb had a season-low three rush attempts.

Marks now has 32 carries in the two games started by Davis Mills, who’s expected to be under centre again Thursday. If Marks is back in that 15-carry range, he should cash this bet.

Under 47.5 points (-200): The venue for Thursday’s game matters, as the Bills haven’t been nearly as potent on the road.

Check out their home/road splits so far:

  • Home (six games): 32.5 PPG, 399.0 yards/game
  • Road (four games): 24.3 PPG, 370.0 yards/game

Another way to illustrate the chasm is through Josh Allen’s passer rating, which is 115.9 at home and 88.3 on the road.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 12 betting markets

Remember, the Texans’ defence is No. 1 in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. And the fact that this game is in Houston means points should be at an even greater premium for the Bills.

Unders are 3-1-1 in Houston’s home games this year. The average total in those matchups has been 40.8 points.

Bills vs. Texans predictions made at 2:25 p.m. ET 11/19/2025.

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Bills vs. Texans TNF Week 12 SGP predictions: Fade Josh Allen against Houston’s top-ranked defence

Bills vs. Texans predictions

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills kick off NFL Week 12 action with a Thursday Night Football date in Houston.

The pregame narrative: The Texans, who likely won’t have C.J. Stroud available, are 6-point home underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo has lost two of four games this year as a road favourite.

Check out my Bills vs. Texans SGP predictions for Nov. 20, featuring Allen and Woody Marks.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Bills vs. Texans predictions

SGP: Allen under 223.5 pass yards | Marks 60+ rush yards | Under 47.5 points (+320)

Allen under 223.5 passing yards (-114): Coming off Allen’s epic performance last week, I get that it might be difficult to sell anyone on taking an under with him. But let’s show some respect to the Texans’ defence.

  • Houston ranks No. 1 in yards and points allowed this season.
  • The Texans have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and are tied for the third-most interceptions (10 in 10 games).
  • According to RBSDM.com, Houston’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per dropback and No. 2 in success rate.

-> Bet on Buffalo vs. Houston on TNF

Yes, Allen had six total TDs last week and has now thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games. But now he’s facing the toughest defence in the league — and on the road, no less.

Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of four road games this year.

Embed: #121237

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Marks 60+ rushing yards (-134): Marks squandered a juicy matchup last week against the Tennessee Titans, but he’s got an even juicier matchup on Thursday.

The Bills’ run defence is among the very worst in the NFL:

  • 32nd in rushing TDs (17)
  • 31st in yards per game (153.0)
  • 31st in yards per rush (5.4)
  • 30th in EPA per rush

-> Build your own SGP featuring Allen and Marks here!

Do I love that Marks only produced 44 rushing yards last week on 18 carries? No, but I am encouraged by that workload, which was a season-high.

Meanwhile, Texans backup Nick Chubb had a season-low three rush attempts.

Marks now has 32 carries in the two games started by Davis Mills, who’s expected to be under centre again Thursday. If Marks is back in that 15-carry range, he should cash this bet.

Under 47.5 points (-186): The venue for Thursday’s game matters, as the Bills haven’t been nearly as potent on the road.

Check out their home/road splits so far:

  • Home (six games): 32.5 PPG, 399.0 yards/game
  • Road (four games): 24.3 PPG, 370.0 yards/game

Another way to illustrate the chasm is through Josh Allen’s passer rating, which is 115.9 at home and 88.3 on the road.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 12 betting markets

Remember, the Texans’ defence is No. 1 in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. And the fact that this game is in Houston means points should be at an even greater premium for the Bills.

Unders are 3-1-1 in Houston’s home games this year. The average total in those matchups has been 40.8 points.

Bills vs. Texans predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 11/19/2025.

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Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets Nov. 19: Quickley, Ingram look to stay hot in Philadelphia

Raptors vs. 76ers prop picks

With an 8-1 record in their past nine games, the Toronto Raptors roll into Philadelphia looking to stay hot.

The latest: Toronto’s only loss from Halloween onward came on the road against the 76ers (a 130-120 defeat on Nov. 8). Wednesday’s rematch is a pick’em in Philly with both Joel Embiid and Paul George expected to be out.

Check out these Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets for the game on Nov. 19, featuring Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley and Andre Drummond.

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Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets

Best bet: Ingram over 20.5 points (-118)

Many questioned the Raptors for trading away a first round pick in a package to acquire Ingram last year, given that he was hurt and Toronto didn’t seem like a squad heading to the playoffs anytime soon.

Ingram is healthy now, though, and he’s helped the Raptors make some impressive headway in the up-for-grabs Eastern Conference.

Through 14 games, Ingram is averaging 20.9 points on 48.6% shooting (88.1% free throw percentage).

Keep in mind that his 3-point shooting so far (27.9%) has been the worst of his 10-year career. So there’s room for improvement in the scoring department.

-> Full Raptors vs. Sixers props at NorthStar Bets

Between Ingram, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, the Raptors have four players who can go for 20+ points on any given night. In fact, all four of them scored between 18 and 22 points when the Raptors faced the Sixers less than two weeks ago.

I like this scoring prop for Ingram because his shot volume is quite steady and the results have followed.

  • Ingram has 15+ shot attempts in 11 of 14 games.
  • He has 20+ points in nine of 14 games.
  • Among wings, Ingram ranks in the 97th percentile for long midrange shot attempts (23%), per Cleaning The Glass. The Sixers allow the third-most shot attempts from long midrange in the NBA (10.3%).

Key stat: Philadelphia allows the ninth-most points per game to opposing small forwards (24.18), per Fantasy Pros.

-> Wager on Wednesday’s packed nine-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Quickley over 2.5 threes (-143): As a team, the Raptors don’t take a ton of 3s. But Quickley is the leader of the pack, and he should be encouraged to fire away right now.

  • Toronto ranks 25th in the NBA in attempted 3s per game. Quickley averages a team-high 6.3 attempted 3s.
  • This month, Quickley is 25-for-56 (44.6%) from deep in eight games. That equates to 3.1 makes on 7.0 attempts.
  • The point guard is 5-3 vs. this line, and he had a pair of triples in all three unders.

In Philly a week and a half ago, Quickley went 5-for-9 from deep. That marked his season-high total for both makes and attempts, so hopefully there’s similar volume available to him tonight.

-> Bet on Quickley and Ingram here!

Drummond over 24.5 points/rebounds (-118): Embiid hasn’t played since the last Raptors/Sixers clash, and he’s listed as doubtful for tonight.

Assuming the two-time scoring champ is out again, Drummond should have a clear runway to putting up big numbers.

  • Drummond has started in four straight games with Embiid out and is 3-1 vs. this prop.
  • In that span, Drummond has averaged 14.3 points and 13.5 rebounds.

Coming off the bench against the Raptors on Nov. 8, Drummond had four points and eight rebounds in just 16 minutes. Not bad at all.

He has played 33+ minutes in each of his starts, and with that amount of run, expect the 6-foot-11 centre to fill up the stat sheet.

Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets made at 9:28 a.m. ET on Nov. 19, 2025.

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Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets Nov. 19: Quickley, Ingram look to stay hot in Philadelphia

Raptors vs. 76ers prop picks

With an 8-1 record in their past nine games, the Toronto Raptors roll into Philadelphia looking to stay hot.

The latest: Toronto’s only loss from Halloween onward came on the road against the 76ers (a 130-120 defeat on Nov. 8). Wednesday’s rematch is a pick’em in Philly with both Joel Embiid and Paul George expected to be out.

Check out these Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets for the game on Nov. 19, featuring Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley and Andre Drummond.

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Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets

Best bet: Ingram 20+ points (-134)

Many questioned the Raptors for trading away a first round pick in a package to acquire Ingram last year, given that he was hurt and Toronto didn’t seem like a squad heading to the playoffs anytime soon.

Ingram is healthy now, though, and he’s helped the Raptors make some impressive headway in the up-for-grabs Eastern Conference.

Through 14 games, Ingram is averaging 20.9 points on 48.6% shooting (88.1% free throw percentage).

Keep in mind that his 3-point shooting so far (27.9%) has been the worst of his 10-year career. So there’s room for improvement in the scoring department.

-> Full Raptors vs. Sixers props at NorthStar Bets

Between Ingram, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, the Raptors have four players who can go for 20+ points on any given night. In fact, all four of them scored between 18 and 22 points when the Raptors faced the Sixers less than two weeks ago.

I like this scoring milestone for Ingram because his shot volume is quite steady and the results have followed.

  • Ingram has 15+ shot attempts in 11 of 14 games.
  • He is 9-5 vs. this 20-point milestone.
  • Among wings, Ingram ranks in the 97th percentile for long midrange shot attempts (23%), per Cleaning The Glass. The Sixers allow the third-most shot attempts from long midrange in the NBA (10.3%).

Key stat: Philadelphia allows the ninth-most points per game to opposing small forwards (24.18), per Fantasy Pros.

Embed: #121213

-> Wager on Wednesday’s packed nine-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Quickley over 2.5 threes (-117): As a team, the Raptors don’t take a ton of 3s. But Quickley is the leader of the pack, and he should be encouraged to fire away right now.

  • Toronto ranks 25th in the NBA in attempted 3s per game. Quickley averages a team-high 6.3 attempted 3s.
  • This month, Quickley is 25-for-56 (44.6%) from deep in eight games. That equates to 3.1 makes on 7.0 attempts.
  • The point guard is 5-3 vs. this line, and he had a pair of triples in all three unders.

In Philly a week and a half ago, Quickley went 5-for-9 from deep. That marked his season-high total for both makes and attempts, so hopefully there’s similar volume available to him tonight.

-> Bet on Quickley and Ingram here!

Drummond to record a double-double (-137): Embiid hasn’t played since the last Raptors/Sixers clash, and he’s listed as doubtful for tonight.

Assuming the two-time scoring champ is out again, Drummond should have a clear runway to collecting a double-double.

  • Drummond has started in four straight games with Embiid out and is 4-0 vs. this prop.
  • In that span, Drummond has averaged 14.3 points and 13.5 rebounds.

Coming off the bench against the Raptors on Nov. 8, Drummond had four points and eight rebounds in just 16 minutes. Not bad at all.

He has played 33+ minutes in each of his starts, and with that amount of run, a double-double will absolutely be in play for the 6-foot-11 centre.

Raptors vs. 76ers prop bets made at 9:28 a.m. ET on Nov. 19, 2025.

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Cowboys vs. Raiders Week 11 MNF TD picks: Dont’e Thornton Jr. is a value play at +650

Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks

A disastrous offence meets a disastrous defence on Monday Night Football, and I’ve got a +650 long shot TD scorer in my sights.

The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys’ defence has struggled to stop much of anything this year, while the Las Vegas Raiders’ offence has been just as inept at putting up points. Raiders rookie Dont’e Thornton Jr. is an intriguing flier to break through for the Raiders at home.

Check out my top Cowboys vs. Raiders MNF TD picks for Week 11, featuring Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson.

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Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks: Week 11

Best bet: Ferguson to score a TD (+137)

Before I make a case for my long shot play, let’s start with a safer option.

Ferguson didn’t find the end zone in his final two games before the Cowboys’ bye, but he’s seeing plenty of high-quality targets and has a pretty enticing price to find his way back.

-> Bet on Monday Night Football prop markets

  • Ferguson has 6+ targets and 5+ catches in seven of nine games.
  • In the red zone, Ferguson has been targeted 14 times over the past seven games. He’s 4-3 vs. this prop in that span, with six TDs overall.
  • Ferguson’s 14 red zone targets lead the Cowboys. George Pickens (11 RZ targets) is the only other player in double digits.

Ferguson had zero TDs last season on 59 catches. That’s because he wasn’t a focal point in the red zone.

The one-time Pro Bowler has more targets inside the 10-yard line in his past three games (four) than he had across 14 games last year (three).

There are three Cowboys with shorter TD odds than Ferguson, and I don’t believe that should be the case. Given his volume of red zone looks, I think he’s a value play at this price.

Key stat: Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in six of his past seven games.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL betting markets

 Sunday Night Football TD picks

Thornton to score a TD (+650): It’s easy to see why Thornton is a long shot pick to score. He only has one catch since Week 4 and one red zone target all season.

If there was ever a time to swing for the fences with him, though, it’s against this Dallas defence.

  • Dallas has allowed 16 receiving TDs to wide receivers through nine games (1.8/game), far and away the most in the NFL. The Chicago Bears are next, surrendering 14 TDs in 10 games (1.4/game).
  • Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.9 passer rating vs. the Cowboys this season, per Rotowire. For context, reigning MVP Josh Allen has a 105.6 passer rating this year.

-> Bet on Thornton to score as a +650 long shot

Thornton was No. 2 among Raiders receivers in offensive snaps in two of their past three games. But he was also a healthy scratch in the other matchup.

I don’t expect Thornton to be targeted much in the red zone, but I’m swinging for the fences with him because he’s a home run hitter.

The fourth-round draftee has an 18.5-yard average depth of target, which ranks in the 98th percentile. His 28.6% catch rate, meanwhile, is dead last in the NFL.

This is an all-or-nothing proposition, and I’m taking my chances against the best matchup imaginable.

Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions made at 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, 2025.

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Cowboys vs. Raiders Week 11 MNF TD picks: Dont’e Thornton Jr. is a value play at +750

Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks

A disastrous offence meets a disastrous defence on Monday Night Football, and I’ve got a +750 long shot TD scorer in my sights.

The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys’ defence has struggled to stop much of anything this year, while the Las Vegas Raiders’ offence has been just as inept at putting up points. Raiders rookie Dont’e Thornton Jr. is an intriguing flier to break through for the Raiders at home.

Check out my top Cowboys vs. Raiders MNF TD picks for Week 11, featuring Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson.

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Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks: Week 11

Best bet: Ferguson to score a TD (+160)

Before I make a case for my long shot play, let’s start with a safer option.

Ferguson didn’t find the end zone in his final two games before the Cowboys’ bye, but he’s seeing plenty of high-quality targets and has a pretty enticing price to find his way back.

-> Bet on Monday Night Football prop markets

  • Ferguson has 6+ targets and 5+ catches in seven of nine games.
  • In the red zone, Ferguson has been targeted 14 times over the past seven games. He’s 4-3 vs. this prop in that span, with six TDs overall.
  • Ferguson’s 14 red zone targets lead the Cowboys. George Pickens (11 RZ targets) is the only other player in double digits.

Ferguson had zero TDs last season on 59 catches. That’s because he wasn’t a focal point in the red zone.

The one-time Pro Bowler has more targets inside the 10-yard line in his past three games (four) than he had across 14 games last year (three).

There are three Cowboys with shorter TD odds than Ferguson, and I don’t believe that should be the case. Given his volume of red zone looks, I think he’s a value play at this price.

Key stat: Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in six of his past seven games.

Embed: #121105

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 Sunday Night Football TD picks

Thornton to score a TD (+750): It’s easy to see why Thornton is a long shot pick to score. He only has one catch since Week 4 and one red zone target all season.

If there was ever a time to swing for the fences with him, though, it’s against this Dallas defence.

  • Dallas has allowed 16 receiving TDs to wide receivers through nine games (1.8/game), far and away the most in the NFL. The Chicago Bears are next, surrendering 14 TDs in 10 games (1.4/game).
  • Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.9 passer rating vs. the Cowboys this season, per Rotowire. For context, reigning MVP Josh Allen has a 105.6 passer rating this year.

-> Bet on Thornton to score as a +750 long shot

Thornton was No. 2 among Raiders receivers in offensive snaps in two of their past three games. But he was also a healthy scratch in the other matchup.

I don’t expect Thornton to be targeted much in the red zone, but I’m swinging for the fences with him because he’s a home run hitter.

The fourth-round draftee has an 18.5-yard average depth of target, which ranks in the 98th percentile. His 28.6% catch rate, meanwhile, is dead last in the NFL.

This is an all-or-nothing proposition, and I’m taking my chances against the best matchup imaginable.

Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions made at 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 17: Mikal Bridges, Anthony Edwards have Grade-A matchups on Monday night

NBA prop bets

Mikal Bridges is the subject of my top NBA prop bet on Monday night, as he looks to lead the shorthanded New York Knicks from 3-point range.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Bridges is off to a great start beyond the arc and should be encouraged to keep firing in Miami. Elsewhere, Derik Queen looks worthy of a fade and Anthony Edwards has a nice opportunity to go off at home.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 17.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 17

Best bet: Bridges over 2.5 threes (-175)

Neither Jalen Brunson nor OG Anunoby will play for the Knicks tonight. That means a lot of shot opportunities should be up for grabs — especially from deep.

  • Brunson and Anunoby rank first and second among Knicks players in attempted 3s, averaging a combined 14.2 attempts per game.
  • Bridges (6.0 3PA) is right behind them, meaning he should be the Knicks’ top 3-point option tonight.

-> Wager on tonight’s eight-game NBA slate

You could argue that Bridges should be taking more 3s no matter what right now, given how well he’s faring from the outside.

The eighth-year wing is shooting 41.7%, which is on track to be the second-best 3PT% of his career.

Without Brunson or Anunoby on the floor, I feel confident that Bridges will attempt more than six 3s tonight. Facing the Miami Heat should be a plus to his volume, too.

The Heat allow the most 3-point attempts in the NBA (45.9/game). Three nights ago, Bridges was 3-for-12 from deep in this exact matchup.

Key stat: Bridges is 7-5 vs. this 3s prop this season, cashing the over in four of his past five.

Best NBA picks

Edwards over 33.5 points/rebounds (-118): The Dallas Mavericks have played two consecutive overtime games and are on the road for a back-to-back tonight in Minnesota. I’m hoping — and expecting — Edwards to take advantage against a gassed team.

Edwards is 1-for-15 from 3-point range in his past two games, but he still cashed this bet both times. He’s a steady producer on the glass, and he knows how to score from anywhere.

-> Bet on Edwards in Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

In eight games with 25+ minutes played this year, Edwards is 6-2 vs. this line. He’s averaging 35.8 points/rebounds in his past five games against Dallas.

This season, the Mavericks have allowed the third-most rebounds per game.

NBA player prop predictions

Queen over 16.5 points/assists (-125): Just 13 games into his NBA career, Queen has already been adorned with the nickname, “Baby Jokic” on Basketball Reference. That’s a ridiculously lofty title to hand him this soon.

Queen is a big man with an uncharacteristically smooth passing touch, sure. But I’m going to need to see him do more than light up the Trail Blazers before using his and Jokic’s names in the same sentence.

-> Check out Monday’s NBA prop markets

Monday’s matchup is as tough as it gets, with Queen and the Pelicans hosting the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

  • OKC allows the fewest points and third-fewest assists per game. The team also ranks No. 1 in defensive rating.
  • Against centres, OKC has allowed the third-fewest points and the fewest assists per game, according to Fantasy Pros.

Queen has a regular rotation role now, playing 24+ minutes in six straight games. But he has gone under this points/assists total in four of those six games.

NBA prop picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, 2025.

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Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Nov. 17: Bet on Denver to rout Giddey and Chicago

Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP

The Denver Nuggets are massive home favourites on Monday night against the reeling Chicago Bulls.

The pregame narrative: Chicago lost as a favourite in Utah last night to extend its losing skid to five games. Josh Giddey has been spectacular for an otherwise pedestrian Bulls team, though, and he should remain active at Ball Arena.

Check out my Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Nov. 17, including a prop prediction on Denver’s Peyton Watson.

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Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP

Parlay: Nuggets -11.5 | Watson over 8.5 points | Giddey 8+ assists (+320)

Nuggets -11.5 (-159): At home, with a rest advantage, the Nuggets are expected to maul the Bulls. And I think they will.

  • Denver is on a six-game ATS win streak and is 9-3 ATS overall this season.
  • At home, the Nuggets are 6-0 with a +19.0 average margin of victory.

-> Wager on Bulls vs. Nuggets before the 9 p.m. ET tip-off

The Bulls just kicked off their road trip with back-to-back losses as favourites. They’ve now dropped five in a row, allowing north of 120 points in each of those games.

I trimmed three points off the standard spread to give Denver a bit more leeway. But that shouldn’t be necessary for a team with the second-best net rating in the league (+13.0).

Embed: #121084

NBA SGP legs

Watson over 8.5 points (-130): This is a gritty pick for a guy who has come off the bench in 10 of 12 games and is averaging 6.5 points. But it’s not a completely random pull on my part.

  • Watson loves to attack the rim, and he should be able to get to his spot routinely tonight.
  • The Bulls allow the highest rate of shots around the rim among all teams (37.5%), per Cleaning the Glass.
  • For Watson’s part, he takes 60.0% of his shots around the rim (91st percentile among small forwards).

-> Don’t miss out — bet now on tonight’s NBA action!

I expect a blowout tonight, and with that, I think there’s a chance the 23-year-old gets more run in mop-up duty.

He scored 12 points in a season-high 34 minutes last time out (Saturday in Minnesota). That was Denver’s ninth win by a double-digit margin this season.

Giddey 8+ assists (-230): The Bulls are sliding, but Giddey isn’t slowing down.

Giddey put up 26 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists on Sunday for his third triple-double in five games this month.

-> Bet on Josh Giddey on Monday night

On the season, he’s averaging nearly a triple-double through 10 games (21.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 9.7 APG). He’s 7-3 vs. this assists milestone on the season.

Coby White made his season debut for the Bulls last night and could cut into Giddey’s assist opportunity. But I still view this milestone as a relatively safe one for the Aussie-born guard.

Giddey cashed this bet in both matchups vs. the Nuggets last year. Also, he’s currently fifth in the NBA in potential assists per game (14.9), which denotes the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.

Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP made at 12:15 p.m. ET 11/17/2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 17: Mikal Bridges, Anthony Edwards have Grade-A matchups on Monday night

NBA prop bets

Mikal Bridges is the subject of my top NBA prop bet on Monday night, as he looks to lead the shorthanded New York Knicks from 3-point range.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Bridges is off to a great start beyond the arc and should be encouraged to keep firing in Miami. Elsewhere, Derik Queen looks worthy of a fade and Anthony Edwards has a nice opportunity to go off at home.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 17.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Nov. 17

Best bet: Bridges over 2.5 threes (-132)

Neither Jalen Brunson nor OG Anunoby will play for the Knicks tonight. That means a lot of shot opportunities should be up for grabs — especially from deep.

  • Brunson and Anunoby rank first and second among Knicks players in attempted 3s, averaging a combined 14.2 attempts per game.
  • Bridges (6.0 3PA) is right behind them, meaning he should be the Knicks’ top 3-point option tonight.

-> Wager on tonight’s eight-game NBA slate

You could argue that Bridges should be taking more 3s no matter what right now, given how well he’s faring from the outside.

The eighth-year wing is shooting 41.7%, which is on track to be the second-best 3PT% of his career.

Without Brunson or Anunoby on the floor, I feel confident that Bridges will attempt more than six 3s tonight. Facing the Miami Heat should be a plus to his volume, too.

The Heat allow the most 3-point attempts in the NBA (45.9/game). Three nights ago, Bridges was 3-for-12 from deep in this exact matchup.

Key stat: Bridges is 7-5 vs. this 3s prop this season, cashing the over in four of his past five.

Embed: #121081

Best NBA picks

Edwards over 33.5 points/rebounds (-122): The Dallas Mavericks have played two consecutive overtime games and are on the road for a back-to-back tonight in Minnesota. I’m hoping — and expecting — Edwards to take advantage against a gassed team.

Edwards is 1-for-15 from 3-point range in his past two games, but he still cashed this bet both times. He’s a steady producer on the glass, and he knows how to score from anywhere.

-> Bet on Edwards in Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

In eight games with 25+ minutes played this year, Edwards is 6-2 vs. this line. He’s averaging 35.8 points/rebounds in his past five games against Dallas.

This season, the Mavericks have allowed the third-most rebounds per game.

NBA player prop predictions

Queen over 16.5 points/assists (-121): Just 13 games into his NBA career, Queen has already been adorned with the nickname, “Baby Jokic” on Basketball Reference. That’s a ridiculously lofty title to hand him this soon.

Queen is a big man with an uncharacteristically smooth passing touch, sure. But I’m going to need to see him do more than light up the Trail Blazers before using his and Jokic’s names in the same sentence.

-> Check out Monday’s NBA prop markets

Monday’s matchup is as tough as it gets, with Queen and the Pelicans hosting the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

  • OKC allows the fewest points and third-fewest assists per game. The team also ranks No. 1 in defensive rating.
  • Against centres, OKC has allowed the third-fewest points and the fewest assists per game, according to Fantasy Pros.

Queen has a regular rotation role now, playing 24+ minutes in six straight games. But he has gone under this points/assists total in four of those six games.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 17, 2025.

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Lions vs. Eagles Week 11 SNF TD picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a disgruntled A.J. Brown, have value

Lions vs. Eagles TD picks

A pair of star receivers are worth backing at plus-money odds on Sunday Night Football, as the Detroit Lions face the Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: Philly’s A.J. Brown hasn’t been shy about his frustrations this season, and he’s getting a quality matchup that should give him a good chance to score. As for Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, there’s been nothing for either him or his team to complain about.

Check out our top Lions vs. Eagles SNF TD picks.

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Lions vs. Eagles TD picks: Week 11

Best Bet: St. Brown to score a TD (+115)

It’s difficult not to bite on a price like this with St. Brown, who’s as active in the red zone as any receiver.

  • St. Brown leads the NFL in red zone receptions (13). He’s second in RZ targets (17) and TDs (7).
  • His opportunity volume overall is also elite. St. Brown has a 31.4% target share, per Rotowire, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
  • Inside the 10-yard line, St. Brown has 1+ targets in six of nine games.

-> Bet on Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. the Eagles on Sunday Night Football

Last week, St. Brown had a quiet day by his standards, catching five passes for 58 yards. But he did see three targets inside the 10-yard line, and he converted one of them into a nine-yard score.

The Eagles’ defence hasn’t allowed many passing TDs this year, but I’m buying St. Brown’s target volume more than anything.

Philly is fully healthy on defence, meaning there will be plenty of capable run stuffers on the field. St. Brown should get some quality looks, as usual.

Key stat: St. Brown is 5-3 vs. this prop with eight touchdowns in his past eight games.

 Sunday Night Football TD picks

Brown to score a TD (+120): Brown is the squeakiest wheel in the NFL right now, and I think he’ll finally get some grease on Sunday night.

Coming off his third consecutive season as a second-team All-Pro wideout, Brown has been curiously quiet on the field this year. But he’s letting everyone hear about it off the field.

In the latest chapter of an ongoing soap opera, Brown reportedly met with Eagles ownership this week to express his discontent, according to ESPN.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 11 betting markets

It’s no guarantee that Brown airing some grievances will lead to an influx of opportunities. But this week’s matchup should have Philly looking his way anyway.

Detroit has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers through nine games, which works out to 1.44 per week. That’s tied for the second-most in the NFL.

Brown has only two red zone targets since Week 4, but the Eagles have only attempted six red zone passes in that span. So it’s not like he’s routinely been passed over for other receivers.

Three of Detroit’s starting defensive backs are out, so Brown should be able to take advantage.

Lions vs. Eagles predictions made at 1:04 p.m. ET Nov. 16, 2025.

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