Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 24: Donovan Mitchell should go off in Toronto

Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks

For the third time already this fall, the Toronto Raptors face the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The latest: Monday night’s matchup in Toronto is a back-to-back for both teams, and it’s a chance for the Raps to win their eighth straight game. Toronto is a modest home underdog despite winning twice as a road dog in Cleveland earlier this season.

Check out these Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks for the game on Nov. 24, featuring Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram.

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Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks

Best bet: Mitchell over 29.5 points (-112)

Mitchell had what you might call an unethical 30-piece against the Raptors when he last faced them on Nov. 13:

  • 31 points
  • 7-of-18 shooting
  • 15-of-17 free throws

When you shoot below 40.0% from the floor — including 2-for-9 from deep — you’re not supposed to put up that many points. But Mitchell found a way.

In five games since, the star shooting guard has had far more ethically-sourced production: 31.4 PPG on 54.8% shooting, with 6.0 free throw attempts per game.

-> Full Cavaliers vs. Raptors props at NorthStar Bets

You can’t expect 17 free throws from Mitchell again tonight, but the good news is that he tends to be a high-volume shooter anyway.

In November, he’s averaging 21.5 field goal attempts (fifth in the NBA).

And with 50.4/39.0/86.8 shooting split this month, he should keep on firing.

Playing on zero rest shouldn’t be a concern for Mitchell, given that he scored 29 and 35 points in two other back-to-backs this season.

Key stat: Mitchell is 10-6 vs. this points prop and is averaging 30.8 PPG so far.

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-> Wager on Monday’s 10-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Ingram under 1.5 threes (-117): Ingram definitely knows how to score, and he’s been a valuable asset for the Raptors to this point. But 3-point shooting really isn’t his game.

  • In his first year with the Raptors, Ingram is shooting 29.6% from deep. That ranks third-worst among 100 players who average at least 4.0 attempted 3s and have played at least 10 games.
  • Ingram is 0-for-9 from 3-point range across two games vs. Cleveland this year.
  • Overall, Ingram has just 21 made 3s in 17 games. This under is 10-7.

-> Bet on Ingram and Mitchell here!

Given his beyond-the-arc goose egg against the Cavs so far, I wouldn’t expect a ton of 3s from Ingram tonight. And that would make sense on the Cleveland side, too.

The Cavaliers allow the second-fewest attempted 3s in the NBA (34.6).

Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 24: Donovan Clingan, Jamal Murray have compelling matchups

NBA prop picks Nov. 24

I’m backing Jamal Murray and a pair of bigs on Monday night in the NBA prop market.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Murray hasn’t had a ton of huge scoring outputs this season, but his perimeter shooting has ticked up lately, and he has an exploitable matchup tonight. Elsewhere, Alperen Sengun and Donovan Clingan should take advantage of key absences in their games.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 24.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 24

Best bet: Clingan over 9.5 rebounds (-130)

The Giannis-sized absence in tonight’s Blazers/Bucks game should be particularly notable when Clingan is around the ball.

If both players were healthy, there’d surely be a ton of low-post battles for rebounds between the big men. But with Giannis sitting out due to a groin strain, I expect that battle to be rather one-sided.

Yes, the Bucks have other bigs, led by the 6-foot-11 Myles Turner and the 6-foot-10 Bobby Portis. But neither of those players is known for grabbing a boatload of boards.

Turner and Portis average 6.4 rebounds and 5.8 rebounds, respectively. They’ve played 17 games apiece and have just one 10-rebound performance between the two of them.

-> Bet on Donovan Clingan vs. the Bucks tonight!

Clingan, at 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, will have the size advantage over everyone tonight. Giannis would’ve had the athleticism advantage, but we don’t have to worry about that.

Just last week, Clingan exploded for 21 rebounds against the Chicago Bulls. He’s now 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven games while averaging 11.4 RPG.

Giannis has missed four games so far, and at least one opposing player has 10+ rebounds in three of those four games. Clingan should be next up.

Key stat: Clingan has a 57.7% success rate on contested rebounds, which ranks ninth out of 379 players (min. five games played), per NBA.com.

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Best NBA picks

Sengun over 24.5 points (-114): The Phoenix Suns seem like a good matchup for Kevin Durant, given his affinity for midrange shots. With Durant (personal) out tonight, Sengun seems like the logical player to pick up the slack.

  • According to Cleaning The Glass, the Suns allow the 10th-most midrange shots and the 12th-highest FG% from the midrange.
  • Sengun attempts 46% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 96th percentile among centres.

-> Bet on Monday’s 10-game NBA slate

Durant leads the Rockets in shot attempts (17.1/game), and Sengun sits closely behind him (16.6/game). So it makes sense to expect Sengun’s shot volume to climb on Monday.

The Turkish centre had a relatively quiet showing last time out against Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets, but he’d cashed this bet in three straight games before that.

NBA player prop predictions

Murray over 23.5 points (-108): Murray is only 4-11 vs. this points prop this season, which makes this seem like a tough sell. But he’s been oh-so-close a bunch of times.

The Kitchener, Ontario native has finished with 22 or 23 points in six of the 11 unders. With the right matchup, this point total is one he can absolutely exceed.

-> Back Kitchener’s Jamal Murray against Memphis on Monday!

Murray will get such a matchup tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, who allow the fourth-most points to opposing point guards (28.84), per Fantasy Pros.

The last time Murray played at Memphis, which was November of last season, he shot 5-for-10 from 3-point range en route to scoring 27 points.

The ninth-year vet is heating up from deep again, posting a 40.7 3PT% over his past eight games.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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Panthers vs. 49ers Week 12 Monday Night Football picks: Bet on Christian McCaffrey in reunion with former team

Panthers vs. 49ers picks

Decorated running back Christian McCaffrey will face his former team for the first time on Monday night, as the San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers.

The pregame narrative: McCaffrey was dealt to the Niners amid the 2022 season and has remained an elite offensive weapon when healthy. He’s had a clean bill of health this year and is expected to put up big numbers in prime time against the Panthers.

Check out my Panthers vs. 49ers picks for Nov. 24, featuring a prop bet on McCaffrey.

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Panthers vs. 49ers picks

Best Bet: McCaffrey over 42.5 receiving yards (-117)

The durability of McCaffrey this season has been a pleasant surprise for NFL fans, and it’s not like there’s been a tradeoff in his production.

McCaffrey, a two-time All-Pro, is pacing the NFL in touches (267) and scrimmage yards (1,439). And he hasn’t missed a game for the 7-4 Niners.

When looking at McCaffrey’s offensive output, what really stands out is his work as a receiver. He’s been exceptionally steady in terms of opportunities and productivity:

  • 6+ targets in all 11 games
  • 40+ yards in all 11 games
  • 6.7 catches/game
  • 66.5 yards/game

He’s coming off his worst receiving performance of the season, mind you, but it’s all relative. Last week, he caught five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown.

McCaffrey has more than twice as many receptions as anyone else on the Niners, which is due in part to his ability to stay healthy. But he’s not just catching screen passes and falling down.

The nine-year vet has averaged a career-best 9.9 yards per reception. He sees 21.1 air yards per game, which may not seem like much, but it’s the highest total among NFL running backs (per Rotowire).

Carolina allows the sixth-most targets per game to opposing RBs (6.36), so McCaffrey should continue to see heavy usage.

Key stat: McCaffrey is 4-0 vs. this receiving prop in home games, going over 65 yards in each of those matchups.

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-> Back McCaffrey against his former team at NorthStar Bets

MNF over/under prediction

Over 49.5 points (-109): Neither of these defences impresses me, and with the 49ers looking as healthy as they have all year on offence, I expect plenty of points.

  • Overs are 6-1-1 in San Francisco’s past eight games.
  • Each of the Niners’ past three games has finished with at least 58 total points.
  • Carolina matched a season-high point total last week in a 30-27 win in Atlanta.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Monday Night Football!

Since Week 4, the Panthers and 49ers have ranked 28th and 29th, respectively, in EPA per play on defence (according to RBSMD.com). The Niners have also allowed the third-worst success rate in that span (51.1%).

I’m not going to sing Bryce Young’s praises, but he’s been solid over his past five games: 94.1 passer rating, 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 65.0% completion rate.

If Young can move the ball a bit and put up a few scores, I think a healthy Brock Purdy and the 49ers will be able to handle the rest.

Panthers vs. 49ers picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET Nov. 22, 2025.

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Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 12 SGP predictions: Jalen Hurts should help Philly earn a divisional win

Eagles vs. Cowboys predictions

In a rematch of their season-opening matchup, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Philly won a pair of rock fights in back-to-back weeks and owns a very comfortable lead in the woeful NFC East. Dallas, meanwhile, looks to build on a 2-1-1 home record to get back into the playoff hunt.

Check out my Eagles vs. Cowboys SGP predictions for Nov. 23, featuring Jalen Hurts and George Pickens.

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Eagles vs. Cowboys predictions

SGP: Eagles -2.5 | Hurts 30+ rush yards | Pickens 50+ rec. yards (+330)

Eagles -2.5 (-136): Philadelphia has played plenty of ugly football this season. In its past two games —both in prime time — the combined point total was a mere 42 points.

But the Eagles won and covered in both of those matchups against two playoff-expectant teams (Lions, Packers). Now they’ll face a Cowboys squad that’s a less balanced and talented bunch.

  • Dallas is 4-5-1 SU, and all five of its losses have come by at least four points.
  • Since the start of the 2023 season, Philly has covered a -2.5 spread in four of five games vs. Dallas.

Philadelphia’s issues have been on offence, not defence. And the Cowboys’ 31st-ranked scoring defence (29.3 PPG) should help with that.

The Eagles are 7-3 ATS this year and have covered a -2.5 spread in all eight outright victories.

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NFL parlay predictions

Hurts 30+ rushing yards (-121): Philadelphia’s offence has been unpredictable in a myriad of ways, and that includes Hurts’ production in the ground game.

In each of his previous four seasons, Hurts finished with 600+ rushing yards and 10+ TDs. Altogether, he averaged 44.8 yards/game.

This season, though, he’s on pace for 450 yards at an average of 26.5 YPG.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 12 betting markets

Hurts’ most active game as a runner came in Week 1 against Dallas, when he carried 14 times for 62 yards and two TDs. That’s not totally surprising when you look at his track record in this matchup:

  • 7 starts vs. Dallas
  • 45.0 rush yards/game
  • 5 rushing TDs

Hurts has cashed this yardage milestone in six of seven career starts vs. the Cowboys.

Coming off another high-volume week (10 carries, 31 yards, 1 TD vs. Detroit), look for Hurts to use his legs.

Pickens 50+ receiving yards (-225): Pickens failed to hit this yardage milestone in Dallas’ season opener against Philadelphia. But that was also the wideout’s first game with his new team, and I like to think circumstances have changed since then.

  • In Week 1, Pickens had 30 receiving yards vs. Philly on three catches (four targets). He has only seen fewer than six targets in one game since.
  • From Week 2 onward, Pickens has averaged 8.8 targets, 6.1 receptions and 97.6 yards.
  • Pickens has 50+ receiving yards in nine straight games.

-> Bet on Jalen Hurts, George Pickens on Sunday afternoon

Philly’s defence is no joke, but the consistent opportunity that Pickens sees as the Cowboys’ WR2 should make this a layup.

The ex-Steeler ranks in the 80th percentile or better in target share on routes run, team target share, team air yards share and air yards per game, according to Rotowire.

Eagles vs. Cowboys predictions made at 2:30 p.m. ET 11/22/2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 22: Jalen Johnson, DeMar DeRozan should both come up big on Saturday

NBA prop picks Nov. 22

Jalen Johnson has been exactly what the Atlanta Hawks have needed this month, and I’m backing him to continue balling out on Saturday night.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Johnson and the Hawks are on the road vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 26th in defensive rating. Later on, look for DeMar DeRozan to have a significant role for the Sacramento Kings.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 22, featuring a fade on Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard Jaylen Wells.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 22

Best bet: Wells under 1.5 threes (-118)

Wells, a second-year shooting guard, has attempted 5.2 threes per game this year. That’s the most among Grizzlies players.

But just because you shoot ’em, it doesn’t mean they’re going to go in. And Wells’ miserable efficiency so far is a big reason why I like this under.

-> Bet on Saturday’s 7-game NBA slate

  • Wells has shot 24-for-83 (28.9%) from deep so far.
  • Among players who’ve appeared in at least five games and are averaging at least 5.0 attempted 3s, Wells’ 3PT% ranks 89th out of 95.

Wells went over this 3s total in back-to-back games to start the season … but he’s hit the under in 10 of 14 games since.

And though he could burn me with an inefficient, high-volume shooting spree beyond the arc, things aren’t trending that way. He’s averaging 4.4 attempts this month, so there’s been some regression from his October volume (6.5 3PA).

Also, Wells’ matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a perfect one to fade the shooting guard in.

The Mavs have allowed the fewest 3s per game in the NBA this season (11.4) on the fifth-lowest 3PT% (32.8).

Key stat: Dallas allows the fifth-fewest 3s to opposing SGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 17.5 points (-118): The Denver Nuggets are one of the NBA’s best defensive teams — and best teams overall — but this is still a number DeRozan should be able to clear.

Back on Remembrance Day, the ex-Raptor scored 18 points on a team-high 15 shots for the Kings. And that was while playing alongside Domantas Sabonis, who went 8-for-12 from the floor.

-> Bet on ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan vs. the Nuggets tonight!

Sabonis (knee) is out right now, which should clear the runway for DeRozan to take at least as many shots as last time.

In five games this calendar year, DeRozan is 5-0 vs. this points prop when facing the Nuggets. He’s averaging 23.6 PPG on 21.2 field goal attempts.

DeRozan is also 11-5 vs. this prop so far this season.

NBA player prop predictions

Johnson over 22.5 points (-130): Johnson has really taken ownership of the Hawks’ offence in the absence of Trae Young, and things are going quite well.

Young has missed each of Atlanta’s 11 games from Halloween onward, and the team is 7-4 in that span. Johnson has averaged 23.0 PPG in that time on 58.1/.45.9/78.8 shooting splits.

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

Johnson’s past five games have been particularly stellar:

  • 26.2 PPG
  • 61.3 FG%
  • 59.1 3PT%
  • 38+ minutes in 4 of 5

Oh, and he’s averaging 11.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists in those five games, too.

Johnson’s do-it-all profile justifies his huge minutes totals, and Atlanta should continue leaning on him to drive the offence.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 22, 2025.

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Pistons vs. Bucks SGP predictions Nov. 22: Back Detroit behind strong performance from Jalen Duren

Pistons vs. Bucks predictions

The Detroit Pistons are the hottest team in the NBA, and they’ll look to continue rolling on Saturday night against the shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin) is out for the Bucks, who are 8-point home underdogs against a Detroit team that has won 11 straight games. The Pistons are 9-2 ATS during their win streak.

Check out my Pistons vs. Bucks SGP predictions for Nov. 22, featuring Jalen Duren and Ryan Rollins.

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Pistons vs. Bucks predictions

Parlay: Duren over 17.5 points | Rollins 20+ points | Pistons -4.5 (+375)

Duren over 17.5 points (-121): Duren’s scoring numbers have exploded this season, as he’s up to 20.6 PPG through 13 games.

In 78 games last year, he averaged 11.8 PPG.

How has the fourth-year centre nearly doubled his scoring average? Yes, he’s taking more field goal attempts, but the real answer is at the free throw line.

  • So far this season, Duren is averaging 7.3 free throw attempts and has a 77.9 FT%.
  • In his first three years combined, he averaged 2.8 attempts and posted a 69.1 FT%.

-> Build your Pistons vs. Bucks SGP at NorthStar Bets

The Bucks allow the fourth-most free throws per game. So if Duren is looking to draw contact, I expect that he will.

In November, Duren is averaging 24.3 PPG and is 7-1 vs. this point total.

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NBA SGP legs

Rollins 20+ points (-152): Like Duren, Rollins is a fourth-year pro who’s having an impact at the game’s highest level.

But unlike Duren, Rollins was a late second-round pick from an unheralded basketball program who was a rather anonymous player prior to this season.

But it’s time to learn the name.

The former Toledo guard is shooting 44.3% from deep so far this year while starting in 15 of 16 games for the Bucks. He only had 19 starts through his first three seasons in the NBA.

-> Back Jalen Duren and Ryan Rollins on Saturday night

Rollins matched a season-high with 32 points last time out in his second game playing without Giannis. In the first game without Giannis, Rollins had 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting.

Giannis is out again tonight, and Rollins should see a significant shot volume as a result. He’s 4-1 vs. this scoring milestone in his past five games.

Pistons -4.5 (-182): Giannis’ absence is a notable part of why I like the visiting Pistons with some points on Saturday.

But even with Giannis, the Bucks haven’t been anything more than a middling team. The Pistons, on the other hand, have been excellent.

  • Detroit sits atop the Eastern Conference and has the fourth-highest net rating in the NBA (+6.7).
  • Entering Saturday, the Pistons are on an 11-game win streak. They’ve covered this number in 10 of those games.

Milwaukee (8-8) ranks 19th in net rating (-1.4) and is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games.

Pistons vs. Bucks predictions made at 11:32 a.m. ET Nov. 22, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 22: Jalen Johnson, DeMar DeRozan should both come up big on Saturday

NBA prop picks Nov. 22

Jalen Johnson has been exactly what the Atlanta Hawks have needed this month, and I’m backing him to continue balling out on Saturday night.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Johnson and the Hawks are on the road vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 26th in defensive rating. Later on, look for DeMar DeRozan to have a significant role for the Sacramento Kings.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 22, featuring a fade on Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard Jaylen Wells.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 22

Best bet: Wells under 1.5 threes (+102)

My only guess for why this is priced at plus-money is that Wells has chucked quite a few 3-pointers this season.

The second-year shooting guard has attempted 5.2 threes per game, which is the most among Grizzlies players.

But just because you shoot ’em, it doesn’t mean they’re going to go in. And Wells’ miserable efficiency so far is a big reason why I like this under.

-> Bet on Saturday’s 7-game NBA slate

  • Wells has shot 24-for-83 (28.9%) from deep so far.
  • Among players who’ve appeared in at least five games and are averaging at least 5.0 attempted 3s, Wells’ 3PT% ranks 89th out of 95.

Wells went over this 3s total in back-to-back games to start the season … but he’s hit the under in 10 of 14 games since.

And though he could burn me with an inefficient, high-volume shooting spree beyond the arc, things aren’t trending that way. He’s averaging 4.4 attempts this month, so there’s been some regression from his October volume (6.5 3PA).

Also, Wells’ matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a perfect one to fade the shooting guard in.

The Mavs have allowed the fewest 3s per game in the NBA this season (11.4) on the fifth-lowest 3PT% (32.8).

Key stat: Dallas allows the fifth-fewest 3s to opposing SGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

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Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 17.5 points (-124): The Denver Nuggets are one of the NBA’s best defensive teams — and best teams overall — but this is still a number DeRozan should be able to clear.

Back on Remembrance Day, the ex-Raptor scored 18 points on a team-high 15 shots for the Kings. And that was while playing alongside Domantas Sabonis, who went 8-for-12 from the floor.

-> Bet on ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan vs. the Nuggets tonight!

Sabonis (knee) is out right now, which should clear the runway for DeRozan to take at least as many shots as last time.

In five games this calendar year, DeRozan is 5-0 vs. this points prop when facing the Nuggets. He’s averaging 23.6 PPG on 21.2 field goal attempts.

DeRozan is also 11-5 vs. this prop so far this season.

NBA player prop predictions

Johnson over 23.5 points (-115): Johnson has really taken ownership of the Hawks’ offence in the absence of Trae Young, and things are going quite well.

Young has missed each of Atlanta’s 11 games from Halloween onward, and the team is 7-4 in that span. Johnson has averaged 23.0 PPG in that time on 58.1/.45.9/78.8 shooting splits.

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

Johnson’s past five games have been particularly stellar:

  • 26.2 PPG
  • 61.3 FG%
  • 59.1 3PT%
  • 38+ minutes in 4 of 5

Oh, and he’s averaging 11.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists in those five games, too.

Johnson’s do-it-all profile justifies his huge minutes totals, and Atlanta should continue leaning on him to drive the offence.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 22, 2025.

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Buccaneers vs. Rams Week 12 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on Nacua, fade Egbuka with Godwin likely returning

Buccaneers vs. Rams picks

I’m backing one star receiver and fading another in my Sunday Night Football predictions this week.

The pregame narrative: Puka Nacua has been a machine for the Los Angeles Rams, and I don’t expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to slow him down. As for Tampa’s offence, the expectant return of Chris Godwin is part of what makes Emeka Egbuka worth fading.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Rams picks for the primetime matchup on Nov. 23.

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Buccaneers vs. Rams picks

Best Bet: Nacua over 87.5 receiving yards (-118)

Nacua put on a show last week against one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL, and that makes me feel great about him cashing this prop.

No, the third-year receiver didn’t clear an 87.5-yard mark against the Seattle Seahawks, whose defence ranks third in net yards per pass attempt. But he did dominate for the Rams from a volume standpoint.

  • Matthew Stafford completed just 15 passes for 130 yards last week vs. Seattle. Nacua had seven receptions for 75 yards.
  • No one else on the Rams had more than two catches or 23 yards.

-> Bet on Puka Nacua and more Buccaneers vs. Rams prop markets

After sustaining an injury in Week 6, Nacua’s usage has definitely declined. But he was so far above the rest of the Rams’ offensive weapons last week — in a daunting matchup — that I think we could see him return to something that more closely resembles his early-season output.

L.A. force-fed Nacua in Weeks 1-5 and the results were superb:

  • 12.4 targets/game
  • 10.4 catches/game
  • 117.6 yards/game

Nacua has zero drops this year and has been targeted on a league-high 36.1% of his routes, per Rotowire.

It’s not all swing passes and short slants, though. He’s also averaging 84.3 air yards per game (86th percentile).

The Bucs have allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game this season. This should be a good spot for Nacua and L.A.’s air attack to thrive.

Key stat: Excluding the game he left early due to injury, Nacua has 90+ receiving yards in five of eight matchups this season.

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SNF ATS prediction

Egbuka under 67.5 receiving yards (-118): Egbuka’s excellent rookie season has him in odds-on position to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

After a few boom weeks earlier in the season, though, his overall production has slowed down.

  • First five games: 25 catches, 445 yards, 5 TDs
  • Past five games: 20 catches, 272 yards, 1 TD

Egbuka has gone under 71.5 receiving yards in four of his past five games, averaging 54.4 yards in that span.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

The likely return of Godwin, who hasn’t played since Week 5, isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Egbuka. But it does add another receiving target to the mix that the rookie hasn’t had to compete against in recent weeks.

What I’m more focused on is the Rams’ defence, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and No. 2 in EPA per play (according to RBSDM.com).

Egbuka has gone udner this yardage total in five of six road games, and this matchup isn’t exactly a friendly one for him.

Buccaneers vs. Rams picks made at 2:23 p.m. ET Nov. 21, 2025.

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Buccaneers vs. Rams Week 12 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on Nacua, fade Egbuka with Godwin likely returning

Buccaneers vs. Rams picks

I’m backing one star receiver and fading another in my Sunday Night Football predictions this week.

The pregame narrative: Puka Nacua has been a machine for the Los Angeles Rams, and I don’t expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to slow him down. As for Tampa’s offence, the expectant return of Chris Godwin is part of what makes Emeka Egbuka worth fading.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Rams picks for the primetime matchup on Nov. 23.

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Buccaneers vs. Rams picks

Best Bet: Nacua 90+ receiving yards (-120)

Nacua put on a show last week against one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL, and that makes me feel great about him cashing this prop.

No, the third-year receiver didn’t hit the 90-yard mark against the Seattle Seahawks, whose defence ranks third in net yards per pass attempt. But he did dominate for the Rams from a volume standpoint.

  • Matthew Stafford completed just 15 passes for 130 yards last week vs. Seattle. Nacua had seven receptions for 75 yards.
  • No one else on the Rams had more than two catches or 23 yards.

-> Bet on Puka Nacua and more Buccaneers vs. Rams prop markets

After sustaining an injury in Week 6, Nacua’s usage has definitely declined. But he was so far above the rest of the Rams’ offensive weapons last week — in a daunting matchup — that I think we could see him return to something that more closely resembles his early-season output.

L.A. force-fed Nacua in Weeks 1-5 and the results were superb:

  • 12.4 targets/game
  • 10.4 catches/game
  • 117.6 yards/game

Nacua has zero drops this year and has been targeted on a league-high 36.1% of his routes, per Rotowire.

It’s not all swing passes and short slants, though. He’s also averaging 84.3 air yards per game (86th percentile).

The Bucs have allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game this season. This should be a good spot for Nacua and L.A.’s air attack to thrive.

Key stat: Excluding the game he left early due to injury, Nacua has 90+ receiving yards in five of eight matchups this season.

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SNF ATS prediction

Egbuka under 71.5 receiving yards (-113): Egbuka’s excellent rookie season has him in odds-on position to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

After a few boom weeks earlier in the season, though, his overall production has slowed down.

  • First five games: 25 catches, 445 yards, 5 TDs
  • Past five games: 20 catches, 272 yards, 1 TD

Egbuka has gone under 71.5 receiving yards in four of his past five games, averaging 54.4 yards in that span.

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The likely return of Godwin, who hasn’t played since Week 5, isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Egbuka. But it does add another receiving target to the mix that the rookie hasn’t had to compete against in recent weeks.

What I’m more focused on is the Rams’ defence, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and No. 2 in EPA per play (according to RBSDM.com).

Egbuka has gone udner this yardage total in five of six road games, and this matchup isn’t exactly a friendly one for him.

Buccaneers vs. Rams picks made at 2:23 p.m. ET Nov. 21, 2025.

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Wizards vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 21: Look for RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl to star in Toronto

Wizards vs. Raptors prop picks

With a sixth consecutive win in their sights, the Toronto Raptors host the lowly Washington Wizards on Friday night.

The latest: It’s still fairly early, but Washington (1-13) is winning the race to the bottom in the NBA right now. And given the Wizards’ NBA-worst net rating (-15.7), it’s no surprise to see the Raptors has heavy home favourites in this matchup.

Check out these Wizards vs. Raptors prop picks for the game on Nov. 21, featuring Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett.

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Wizards vs. Raptors prop picks

Best bet: Poeltl over 13.5 points (-110)

There are a lot of mouths to feed on this Raptors team, and Poeltl isn’t particularly high on the pecking order.

But he’s been a bit more active as a scorer lately, and this matchup is as good as it gets.

  • In his past four games, Poeltl has averaged 18.5 points and is 3-1 vs. this points prop. He’d been 1-6 against it in his first seven games.
  • The Wizards allow the second-most PPG to opposing centres (25.89), per Fantasy Pros.

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In an age where basketball can feel position-less, Poeltl is a throwback centre who lives around the rim in the offensive halfcourt.

Aside from a handful of short midrange looks, his attempts come exclusively from within an arm’s length of basket. He doesn’t attempt any 3s.

Washington allows the fifth-most shots around the rim on a rate basis (34.4%), according to Cleaning The Glass. And the Wizards allow the most points per game overall (128.9).

At seven feet and 245 pounds, Poeltl will have a size advantage all night tonight.

The Wizards are dealing with some frontcourt injury issues that leave 22-year-old Tristan Vukcevic (6-foot-10, 223 pounds) and 19-year-old Will Riley (6-foot-8, 190 pounds) as their biggest bodies down low.

Key stat: Last year, Poeltl went 2-1 vs. this prop when facing the Wizards, averaging 18.0 PPG across those games.

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Additional NBA prop predictions

Barrett over 28.5 points/rebounds/assists (-118): I’m looking for one more way to try to capitalize on the Wizards’ league-worst scoring defence, and this seems like a good spot to land.

Barrett is averaging 19.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists, which equates to 28.0 PRA. So he’ll only need to be a tick above average to cash this bet.

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Here’s how opposing small forwards have fared vs. the Wizards this year:

  • 2nd-most PPG
  • 3rd-most RPG
  • 4th-most APG

It’s a smash matchup that Barrett has excelled in before.

Since joining the Raptors, he’s 3-0 vs. this prop when facing the Wizards at home — averaging 34.7 PRA in those games.

Wizards vs. Raptors prop bets made at 12:28 p.m. ET on Nov. 21, 2025.

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