Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Broncos vs. Commanders Week 13 TD picks: Look for Deebo Samuel, Troy Franklin to break through

Fresh off their respective bye weeks, the Denver Broncos return to action against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Denver has the No. 3 scoring defence in the NFL, and with Jayden Daniels still sidelined for the Commanders, points are expected to be at a premium. My top TD target is Denver’s Troy Franklin, thanks to his combination as a big-play threat and viable red zone target.

Check out my Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks for Nov. 30, featuring Deebo Samuel.

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Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks

Best bet: Franklin to score (+130)

Franklin is the best of both worlds as an anytime touchdown target. He gets plenty of looks in the red zone, but he’s also a home run hitter.

According to RotoWire, Franklin ranks in the 84th percentile or better in air yards per game, team air yards share, team target share and average depth of target.

Franklin has 14 red zone targets this season. The rest of Denver’s wide receiver room combined has 16.

-> Bet on Franklin to score at +143 on Sunday Night Football

With 101.0 air yards per game, Franklin typically has opportunities to score from anywhere on the field. But he’s also a priority target in the area closest to the goal line.

Over the past five games, Franklin has seven red zone targets — and four of those came inside the 10-yard line. Both of those numbers lead the Broncos.

Franklin and his teammates should be able to feast against the Commanders’ pass defence, as that unit allows the second-most yards per game to WRs (170.3). Washington has yielded 13 receiving TDs to opposing receivers in 11 games.

Key stat: Franklin has four TDs in his past five games, and he had eight-plus targets in each of those matchups.

Sunday Night Football anytime TD prediction

Samuel to score (+240): It’s tough to feel great about any of Washington’s scoring options against the vaunted Broncos defence, but Samuel is worth a swing at this price point.

Samuel has five touchdowns on the year, scoring in half of his 10 games.

He has scored in back-to-back games.

He has eight red zone opportunities (targets/carries) in his past four games.

-> Go to full Broncos vs. Commanders betting markets for SNF

The return of Terry McLaurin might seem like a net negative for Samuel’s chances to score, but I’m not seeing it that way.

McLaurin will probably draw the attention of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain, and McLaurin’s presence should improve Washington’s overall chances of moving the ball.

Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks made at 1 p.m. ET Nov. 30, 2025.

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Broncos vs. Commanders Week 13 TD picks: Look for Deebo Samuel, Troy Franklin to break through

Fresh off their respective bye weeks, the Denver Broncos return to action against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Denver has the No. 3 scoring defence in the NFL, and with Jayden Daniels still sidelined for the Commanders, points are expected to be at a premium. My top TD target is Denver’s Troy Franklin, thanks to his combination as a big-play threat and viable red zone target.

Check out my Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks for Nov. 30, featuring Deebo Samuel.

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Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks

Best bet: Franklin to score (+143)

Franklin is the best of both worlds as an anytime touchdown target. He gets plenty of looks in the red zone, but he’s also a home run hitter.

According to RotoWire, Franklin ranks in the 84th percentile or better in air yards per game, team air yards share, team target share and average depth of target.

Franklin has 14 red zone targets this season. The rest of Denver’s wide receiver room combined has 16.

-> Bet on Franklin to score at +143 on Sunday Night Football

With 101.0 air yards per game, Franklin typically has opportunities to score from anywhere on the field. But he’s also a priority target in the area closest to the goal line.

Over the past five games, Franklin has seven red zone targets — and four of those came inside the 10-yard line. Both of those numbers lead the Broncos.

Franklin and his teammates should be able to feast against the Commanders’ pass defence, as that unit allows the second-most yards per game to WRs (170.3). Washington has yielded 13 receiving TDs to opposing receivers in 11 games.

Key stat: Franklin has four TDs in his past five games, and he had eight-plus targets in each of those matchups.

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Sunday Night Football anytime TD prediction

Samuel to score (+235): It’s tough to feel great about any of Washington’s scoring options against the vaunted Broncos defence, but Samuel is worth a swing at this price point.

Samuel has five touchdowns on the year, scoring in half of his 10 games.

He has scored in back-to-back games.

He has eight red zone opportunities (targets/carries) in his past four games.

-> Go to full Broncos vs. Commanders betting markets for SNF

The return of Terry McLaurin might seem like a net negative for Samuel’s chances to score, but I’m not seeing it that way.

McLaurin will probably draw the attention of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain, and McLaurin’s presence should improve Washington’s overall chances of moving the ball.

Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET Nov. 30, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 30: Fade Clingan, look for Edey to dominate as a rebounder

Zach Edey has been a monster on the glass lately, and his rebounding prop is my favourite NBA player prediction for Sunday’s action.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Edey faces a shorthanded Sacramento Kings squad, which is about as compelling a matchup as you can ask for. Elsewhere, Donovan Clingan is worth fading against the NBA’s top defence.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 30, featuring a prediction on Devin Vassell.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 30

Best bet: Edey over 11.5 rebounds (-112)

Listed at 7-foot-3 and 305 pounds, Edey is one of the biggest players in the NBA. As you might expect, that means he has one of the highest ceilings as a rebounder on a night-to-night basis.

The recent results speak for themselves:

Nov. 22: 26 minutes, 15 rebounds
Nov. 24: 6 minutes, 1 rebound
Nov. 26: 35 minutes, 15 rebounds
Nov. 28: 32 minutes, 19 rebounds

-> Bet on Canada’s Zach Edey vs. the Kings tonight!

In the six-minute effort, Edey left early with a migraine and did not return.

But even with that game included, the second-year centre averaged more than a rebound every two minutes during this four-game span.

The fact that he played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games is also noteworthy, given that Edey began the year on the shelf recovering from ankle surgery. He didn’t debut until the Grizzlies’ 14th game (Nov. 15).

Edey, a Toronto native, played around 25 minutes in his first three games and went under this rebounding total in each of them. But he seems to be back to full go now.

And that’s bad news for the Kings, who won’t have Domantas Sabonis out there to challenge Edey tonight. Sabonis, the NBA’s three-time reigning rebounding champ, is sidelined with a knee injury.

The Kings have the lowest rebounding rate in the NBA (46.5%). Edey should be able to dominate, especially with Sabonis out.

Key stat: Sacramento is allowing the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.39), per Fantasy Pros.

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Best NBA picks

Vassell under 2.5 threes (-106): It’s not fun to fade a guy who’s in a groove, but that’s exactly what I’m doing here with Vassell.

The sixth-year wing has gone over 2.5 threes in four straight games and is shooting 40.3% from deep this season.

He has 3+ threes in seven of his past 11 games, averaging 2.8 makes on 6.2 attempts in that span (45.6 3PT%).

-> Bet on Spurs vs. Timberwolves here!

So why fade him? The matchup, mostly.

Vassell faces the Minnesota Timberwolves, who allow the sixth-fewest 3-point makes and attempts per game in the NBA.

The T-wolves also allow the sixth-lowest 3PT% on non-corner triples (33.2%), per Cleaning The Glass.

Vassell primarily shoots his 3-pointers from the non-corner area, so I don’t expect him to thrive on his standard shot diet. Among all shots he takes, 39% are non-corner 3s (compared to just 13% as corner 3s).

In the six games with Victor Wembanyama, Vassell has only attempted 5.7 threes per game. He’s been cashing them at a high rate, but that volume isn’t enough for me to expect another over in this matchup.

NBA player prop predictions

Clingan under 9.5 points (-114): This will be Clingan’s third time facing the Oklahoma City Thunder this year, and based on how the first two matchups went, taking the under here looks like the right play.

In the games on Nov. 5 and Nov. 23, Clingan shot a combined 4-for-12 and scored 15 points. He went under this total both times.

-> Bet on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate

In fairness to him, it’s a brutal matchup any time you have to face OKC. The defending champs have the best defensive rating in the NBA (103.4), and they allow the fewest points per game (106.3).

Against centres in particular, the Thunder allow the second-fewest PPG among all teams.

Clingan has hit this under in 12 of 19 games overall, and it’d make sense for that trend to continue in such a daunting matchup.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 30, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 29: Bet on Devin Booker to snap his shooting slump

A trio of backcourt players are in my sights for Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Devin Booker is in a shooting slump right now, but I can’t see that lasting much longer. Cade Cunningham, meanwhile, is keeping up gaudy numbers as both a scorer and a passer for the Detroit Pistons.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 29, featuring a prediction on Brandin Podziemski.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 29

Best bet: Cunningham over 9.5 assists (-118)

Cunningham is the Pistons’ alpha dog as a scorer. But he’s also by far their most active facilitator, too.

Cunningham averages 28.8 PPG on 22.1 shot attempts. No one else on Detroit averages 20+ PPG or even 12.0 shot attempts.

But the assists discrepancy is even more stark. Cunningham leads the way at 9.4 APG, and the next highest average is 3.7 APG (from Daniss Jenkins coming off the bench).

The 24-year-old point guard has all the keys and codes to Detroit’s offence. He’s quite capable of having a great night as a passer while also filling the net himself.

-> Bet on Cade Cunningham vs. the Heat tonight!

Just last night, Cunningham dropped 39 points on 13-of-26 shooting while adding 11 assists against the Orlando Magic.

I’m opting for an assists prop with Cunningham tonight because that feels like the right fit based on the matchup.

The Miami Heat allow the seventh-most assists per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros. And they’re allowing the 11th-most assists overall.

When Cunningham last faced the Heat in Miami, back in March, he finished with 11 assists in 36 minutes.

Key stat: In his past 12 games, Cunningham is 9-3 vs. this prop while averaging 10.0 APG.

Best NBA picks

Booker over 26.5 points (-112): Booker is in a shooting slump right now, but I hope he simply shoots his way out of it.

After scoring 25+ points in 10 of his first 14 games, Booker has fallen under that number in six straight.

During his mini-slump, Booker is averaging 19.5 PPG on 34.0% shooting.

-> Bet on Nuggets vs. Suns here!

Booker has still averaged 16.2 shot attempts during this six-game slide, so it’s not like he’s giving up on himself.

On the season, Booker also ranks 11th in the NBA in free throw attempts (7.9/game). That certainly raises his scoring floor.

Tonight, Booker’s Suns face the Denver Nuggets. He scored 31 points against them (9-for-9 from the free throw line) when he last faced them on Oct. 25.

NBA player prop predictions

Podziemski over 15.5 points (-106): The last time Steph Curry was out, 10 days ago, Podziemski made the most of a starting role. He scored 20 points and added eight rebounds in 34 minutes.

With Curry (thigh) out again tonight, Podziemski should seize the opportunity to be great.

-> Bet on Saturday’s 8-game NBA slate

The New Orleans Pelicans allow the second-most points to opposing shooting guards (26.01/game). And Podziemski was excellent against them two weekends ago:

26 minutes (off the bench)
19 points
8-of-13 shooting
3-for-7 from 3-point range

Over his past five games without Curry, dating back to last spring, Podziemski has averaged 16.6 PPG in 32.1 minutes of action.

The 2023 first-round pick should shoulder enough of the scoring load to get this done.

NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Nov. 29, 2025.

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Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks Nov. 29: Knueppel should score in bunches, Barnes is worth fading as a rebounder

Kon Knueppel is one of many rookies already making a splash in the NBA, and he’s my featured prop target for Saturday’s Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets game.

The latest: Knueppel starred for Charlotte when his team faced Toronto earlier this month, and I expect more of the same in the rematch. On the Raptors’ side, Scottie Barnes is worth fading on the glass.

Check out these Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks for the game on Nov. 29 at Spectrum Center.

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Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks

Best bet: Knueppel over 16.5 points (-106)

Let’s be clear about one thing first: Knueppel didn’t come out of nowhere. As the fourth-overall pick this past summer, he was drafted to be great.

That didn’t mean it would work out so well and so quickly, though. But it has, and I’m looking to ride the wave.

The ex-Duke small forward leads NBA rookies in points per game (18.3).

Among 50 players attempting at least 6.5 threes per game, Knueppel ranks 10th in 3PT% (40.6).

He has 20+ points in nine of 19 games and has already hit the 30-point threshold twice.

-> Full Raptors vs. Hornets props at NorthStar Bets

Knueppel has had back-to-back quiet outings, but he was on a serious roll before that. From Nov. 2-23, he scored 16+ points in 10 of 11 games and shot 50.9% from the floor.

In his lone game vs. the Raptors in that stretch, Knueppel scored a team-high 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting.

Given that Knueppel’s scoring average is above this mark — and he’s already performed well against Toronto — this over should absolutely be in play.

Key stat: Knueppel is 11-8 vs. this prop so far in his rookie season.

-> Wager on Saturday’s 8-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Barnes under 8.5 rebounds (-143): I haven’t been actively seeking out fade opportunities with Scottie Barnes, but this one is worth jumping on.

The Hornets have been among the very best rebounding teams in the entire league. They rank second in rebounding rate (53.5%), and they allow the third-fewest rebounds to opponents.

-> Bet on Knueppel and Barnes here!

When these teams met on Nov. 17, Barnes finished with six rebounds in 33 minutes.

Six players in that game out-rebounded him, including four Hornets players.

Barnes averages 7.9 RPG and has gone over this line in 10 of 19 games. So, although he seems like a toss-up to hit the over in an average matchup, this is the right time for a fade.

Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET on Nov. 29, 2025.

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Mavericks vs. Clippers SGP predictions Nov. 29: P.J. Washington, Dallas should put up a fight on the road

A pair of Western Conference bottom-feeders meet at Intuit Dome on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: As December approaches, either the Dallas Mavericks or the Los Angeles Clippers will pick up their sixth win of the season. There are 13 teams with at least double that many wins already. L.A. won a high-scoring battle in overtime when these teams met two weeks ago.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Clippers SGP predictions for Nov. 29, featuring P.J. Washington and Ivica Zubac.

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Clippers vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Washington 2+ threes | Mavericks +10.5 | Zubac 10+ rebounds (+265)

Washington 2+ threes (-137): Washington didn’t face the Clippers in their first head-to-head matchup of the season, but he’ll be a welcomed part of the Dallas offence tonight.

The power forward has flashed his scoring upside recently, averaging 18.3 PPG in seven games since returning from a shoulder injury.

And the most notable part? He’s shooting 45.0% from 3-point range in that span.

-> Bet on NBA futures at NorthStar Bets

Washington is 4-3 vs. this prop in those past seven games while averaging 2.6 makes. With enough volume, he should be counted on for a pair of triples.

The Clippers should be the right matchup for him, as they allow the fourth-most 3s (14.9/game) at the second-highest clip (39.1%).

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NBA SGP legs

Mavericks +10.5 (-200): Both of these teams are off to dreadful starts, and I cannot back either of them with a boatload of points.

The Clippers are 7.5-point home favourites on Saturday night … after losing outright as home favourites on Friday vs. the Grizzlies.

That sent L.A. to a 5-14 ATS record this season, matching its straight-up win/loss record.

Dallas is a slightly more respectable 8-12 ATS and has covered a +10.5 spread in 16 of 20 games this year.

That includes a six-point overtime loss to the Clippers earlier this month.

-> Back LeBron and Zubac on Tuesday night

Zubac 10+ rebounds (-250): If Anthony Davis were available tonight, this prop wouldn’t have so much juice.

But AD is out, and in an SGP format, I’m willing to pay this price to back Zubac at a very attainable rebounding milestone.

After averaging a career-high 12.6 RPG last season, Zubac is at 11.5 RPG through 19 games this year.

He’s 13-3 vs. this milestone in his past 16 games, with 9+ rebounds in all but one of those games.

Since the start of last season, Zubac is 5-0 vs. this milestone against Dallas. He averaged 12.8 RPG in those matchups.

Mavericks vs. Clippers predictions made at 2:10 p.m. on Nov. 29, 2025.

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Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks Nov. 29: Knueppel should score in bunches, Barnes is worth fading as a rebounder

Kon Knueppel is one of many rookies already making a splash in the NBA, and he’s my featured prop target for Saturday’s Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets game.

The latest: Knueppel starred for Charlotte when his team faced Toronto earlier this month, and I expect more of the same in the rematch. On the Raptors’ side, Scottie Barnes is worth fading on the glass at a plus-money price.

Check out these Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks for the game on Nov. 29 at Spectrum Center.

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Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks

Best bet: Knueppel over 16.5 points (-122)

Let’s be clear about one thing first: Knueppel didn’t come out of nowhere. As the fourth-overall pick this past summer, he was drafted to be great.

That didn’t mean it would work out so well and so quickly, though. But it has, and I’m looking to ride the wave.

The ex-Duke small forward leads NBA rookies in points per game (18.3).

Among 50 players attempting at least 6.5 threes per game, Knueppel ranks 10th in 3PT% (40.6).

He has 20+ points in nine of 19 games and has already hit the 30-point threshold twice.

-> Full Raptors vs. Hornets props at NorthStar Bets

Knueppel has had back-to-back quiet outings, but he was on a serious roll before that. From Nov. 2-23, he scored 16+ points in 10 of 11 games and shot 50.9% from the floor.

In his lone game vs. the Raptors in that stretch, Knueppel scored a team-high 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting.

Given that Knueppel’s scoring average is above this mark — and he’s already performed well against Toronto — this over should absolutely be in play.

Key stat: Knueppel is 11-8 vs. this prop so far in his rookie season.

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-> Wager on Saturday’s 8-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Barnes under 7.5 rebounds (+108): I haven’t been actively seeking out fade opportunities with Scottie Barnes, but this one is worth jumping on.

The Hornets have been among the very best rebounding teams in the entire league. They rank second in rebounding rate (53.5%), and they allow the third-fewest rebounds to opponents.

-> Bet on Knueppel and Barnes here!

When these teams met on Nov. 17, Barnes finished with six rebounds in 33 minutes.

Six players in that game out-rebounded him, including four Hornets players.

Barnes averages 7.9 RPG and has gone over this line in 10 of 19 games. So, although he seems a bit more likely to hit the over in an average matchup, this is the right time for a fade.

Raptors vs. Hornets prop picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET on Nov. 29, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 29: Bet on Devin Booker to snap his shooting slump

A trio of backcourt players are in my sights for Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Devin Booker is in a shooting slump right now, but I can’t see that lasting much longer. Cade Cunningham, meanwhile, is keeping up gaudy numbers as both a scorer and a passer for the Detroit Pistons.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 29, featuring a prediction on Brandin Podziemski.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 29

Best bet: Cunningham over 9.5 assists (-127)

Cunningham is the Pistons’ alpha dog as a scorer. But he’s also by far their most active facilitator, too.

Cunningham averages 28.8 PPG on 22.1 shot attempts. No one else on Detroit averages 20+ PPG or even 12.0 shot attempts.

But the assists discrepancy is even more stark. Cunningham leads the way at 9.4 APG, and the next highest average is 3.7 APG (from Daniss Jenkins coming off the bench).

The 24-year-old point guard has all the keys and codes to Detroit’s offence. He’s quite capable of having a great night as a passer while also filling the net himself.

-> Bet on Cade Cunningham vs. the Heat tonight!

Just last night, Cunningham dropped 39 points on 13-of-26 shooting while adding 11 assists against the Orlando Magic.

I’m opting for an assists prop with Cunningham tonight because that feels like the right fit based on the matchup.

The Miami Heat allow the seventh-most assists per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros. And they’re allowing the 11th-most assists overall.

When Cunningham last faced the Heat in Miami, back in March, he finished with 11 assists in 36 minutes.

Key stat: In his past 12 games, Cunningham is 9-3 vs. this prop while averaging 10.0 APG.

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Best NBA picks

Booker over 24.5 points (-127): Booker is in a shooting slump right now, but I hope he simply shoots his way out of it.

After scoring 25+ points in 10 of his first 14 games, Booker has fallen under this number in six straight.

During his mini-slump, Booker is averaging 19.5 PPG on 34.0% shooting.

-> Bet on Nuggets vs. Suns here!

Booker has still averaged 16.2 shot attempts during this six-game slide, so it’s not like he’s giving up on himself.

On the season, Booker also ranks 11th in the NBA in free throw attempts (7.9/game). That certainly raises his scoring floor.

Tonight, Booker’s Suns face the Denver Nuggets. He scored 31 points against them (9-for-9 from the free throw line) when he last faced them on Oct. 25.

NBA player prop predictions

Podziemski over 14.5 points (-113): The last time Steph Curry was out, 10 days ago, Podziemski made the most of a starting role. He scored 20 points and added eight rebounds in 34 minutes.

With Curry (thigh) out again tonight, Podziemski should seize the opportunity to be great.

-> Bet on Saturday’s 8-game NBA slate

The New Orleans Pelicans allow the second-most points to opposing shooting guards (26.01/game). And Podziemski was excellent against them two weekends ago:

26 minutes (off the bench)
19 points
8-of-13 shooting
3-for-7 from 3-point range

Over his past five games without Curry, dating back to last spring, Podziemski has averaged 16.6 PPG in 32.1 minutes of action.

The 2023 first-round pick should shoulder enough of the scoring load to get this done.

NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Nov. 29, 2025.

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College football Week 14 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar

It’s rivalry week in NCAA Division I football, and I’m targeting some of the biggest matchups on Friday and Saturday.

The pregame narrative: In another instalment of The Game, the Ohio State Buckeyes are two-score road favourites against the Michigan Wolverines in a matchup that U of M has dominated recently. And in the Iron Bowl, look for Alabama’s Ty Simpson to put up big numbers against Auburn.

Check out our best college football Week 14 picks, featuring a prediction for the Georgia Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets matchup.

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College football picks Week 14

Best bet: Joey Aguilar over 273.5 passing yards (-118)

Aguilar was held to rather tame passing totals in the past two weeks, but he was still dominant in those games:

Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State: 17 for 23, 204 yards, 1 TD

Nov. 22 at Florida: 17 for 22, 204 yards, 1 TD

The No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers won both of those games by 20+ points, so they didn’t need Aguilar to go nuclear.

But I’m encouraged by the efficiency, and I expect the Vols to roll with a more aggressive game script on Saturday.

-> Back Aguilar to put on a show vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt

Tennessee is very likely out of the College Football Playoff picture, but there are still in-state bragging rights and bowl invitations on the line with No. 14 Vanderbilt in town.

The Commodores’ pass defence has been brutal, ranking 122nd in yards per game (264.4) and 128th in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.

Each of Vandy’s past three opposing quarterbacks cruised past this number.

Aguilar has gone over 330 yards four times in conference play, so he’s absolutely capable of running up a big yardage total when the time is right. He should have a field day in Knoxville.

Key stat: Aguilar leads the SEC in passing yards per game (285.9)

Ohio State vs. Michigan ATS pick

Michigan +10 (-134): On paper, the top-ranked Buckeyes are miles ahead. But rivalry showdowns as big as this one are far more nuanced than that.

In a matchup known simply as The Game, the Wolverines are on a post-COVID run of inexplicable dominance.

4-0 SU and ATS vs. Ohio State
3 wins as an underdog of 7+ points

-> Bet on The Game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 15 Michigan

Somehow, with putrid quarterback play from Davis Warren (9 for 16, 62 yards, two interceptions), Michigan pulled out a 13-10 win in Columbus last year. Now the Wolverines are at home with Bryce Underwood, an inexperienced but far more dynamic quarterback.

Michigan’s resume isn’t littered with great wins, but its only losses came on the road against top-20 opponents (No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 17 USC). The Wolverines rank 10th in D-I in EPA per play.

Ohio State ranks first in EPA per play, mind you, and has won nine straight games by 18+ points.

The Buckeyes could have both of their top receivers back, but neither Jeremiah Smith nor Carnell Tate appears to be at full strength after missing last week.

I can’t earnestly call for Michigan to pull off the five-peat. But the Wolverines can at least keep it close at home.

NCAAF picks and props

Georgia/Georgia Tech over 59.5 points (-110): Last year’s Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate was a banger, with Georgia eking out a 44-42 overtime win as a 17-point favourite.

This year’s matchup also tilts in the direction of Georgia (-14), but I’m not fixated on a side. I just think we’re going to see a lot of points.

Overs are 5-2 in Georgia Tech’s past seven games.

Both offences rank in the top 15 in EPA per play and success rate.

Both defences rank outside the top 75 in EPA per play (and Georgia Tech is 107th in defensive success rate).

The Yellow Jackets are averaging 35.3 PPG thanks to the dual-threat ability of Haynes King. He had over 400 yards and five total TDs in this matchup last year and can turn this into a shootout.

Simpson over 1.5 passing TDs (-118): Simpson has failed to cash this bet in three straight games, but Alabama is still a pass-heavy enough team that I like his chances this week.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on this weekend’s college football action!

The redshirt junior leads the SEC in completions and pass attempts.

He has a 22:4 TD-to-INT ratio in 11 games.

He’s also 8-3 vs. this passing TDs prop this season.

The Auburn Tigers’ defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per rush, and the Crimson Tide have struggled mightily to run the ball anyway. Look for Simpson to lead at least a couple of scoring drives that end with passing TDs.

College football picks made at 2:55 p.m. on Nov. 27, 2025.

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College football Week 14 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar

It’s rivalry week in NCAA Division I football, and I’m targeting some of the biggest matchups on Friday and Saturday.

The pregame narrative: In another instalment of The Game, the Ohio State Buckeyes are two-score road favourites against the Michigan Wolverines in a matchup that U of M has dominated recently. And in the Iron Bowl, look for Alabama’s Ty Simpson to put up big numbers against Auburn.

Check out our best college football Week 14 picks, featuring a prediction for the Georgia Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets matchup.

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College football picks Week 14

Best bet: Joey Aguilar over 278.5 passing yards (-120)

Aguilar was held to rather tame passing totals in the past two weeks, but he was still dominant in those games:

Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State: 17 for 23, 204 yards, 1 TD

Nov. 22 at Florida: 17 for 22, 204 yards, 1 TD

The No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers won both of those games by 20+ points, so they didn’t need Aguilar to go nuclear.

But I’m encouraged by the efficiency, and I expect the Vols to roll with a more aggressive game script on Saturday.

-> Back Aguilar to put on a show vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt

Tennessee is very likely out of the College Football Playoff picture, but there are still in-state bragging rights and bowl invitations on the line with No. 14 Vanderbilt in town.

The Commodores’ pass defence has been brutal, ranking 122nd in yards per game (264.4) and 128th in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.

Each of Vandy’s past three opposing quarterbacks cruised past this number.

Aguilar has gone over 330 yards four times in conference play, so he’s absolutely capable of running up a big yardage total when the time is right. He should have a field day in Knoxville.

Key stat: Aguilar leads the SEC in passing yards per game (285.9)

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Ohio State vs. Michigan ATS pick

Michigan +10 (-108): On paper, the top-ranked Buckeyes are miles ahead. But rivalry showdowns as big as this one are far more nuanced than that.

In a matchup known simply as The Game, the Wolverines are on a post-COVID run of inexplicable dominance.

4-0 SU and ATS vs. Ohio State
3 wins as an underdog of 7+ points

-> Bet on The Game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 15 Michigan

Somehow, with putrid quarterback play from Davis Warren (9 for 16, 62 yards, two interceptions), Michigan pulled out a 13-10 win in Columbus last year. Now the Wolverines are at home with Bryce Underwood, an inexperienced but far more dynamic quarterback.

Michigan’s resume isn’t littered with great wins, but its only losses came on the road against top-20 opponents (No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 17 USC). The Wolverines rank 10th in D-I in EPA per play.

Ohio State ranks first in EPA per play, mind you, and has won nine straight games by 18+ points.

The Buckeyes could have both of their top receivers back, but neither Jeremiah Smith nor Carnell Tate appears to be at full strength after missing last week.

I can’t earnestly call for Michigan to pull off the five-peat. But the Wolverines can at least keep it close at home.

NCAAF picks and props

Georgia/Georgia Tech over 59.5 points (-112): Last year’s Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate was a banger, with Georgia eking out a 44-42 overtime win as a 17-point favourite.

This year’s matchup also tilts in the direction of Georgia (-14), but I’m not fixated on a side. I just think we’re going to see a lot of points.

Overs are 5-2 in Georgia Tech’s past seven games.

Both offences rank in the top 15 in EPA per play and success rate.

Both defences rank outside the top 75 in EPA per play (and Georgia Tech is 107th in defensive success rate).

The Yellow Jackets are averaging 35.3 PPG thanks to the dual-threat ability of Haynes King. He had over 400 yards and five total TDs in this matchup last year and can turn this into a shootout.

Simpson over 1.5 passing TDs (-136): Simpson has failed to cash this bet in three straight games, but Alabama is still a pass-heavy enough team that I like his chances this week.

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The redshirt junior leads the SEC in completions and pass attempts.

He has a 22:4 TD-to-INT ratio in 11 games.

He’s also 8-3 vs. this passing TDs prop this season.

The Auburn Tigers’ defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per rush, and the Crimson Tide have struggled mightily to run the ball anyway. Look for Simpson to lead at least a couple of scoring drives that end with passing TDs.

College football picks made at 1:05 p.m. on Nov. 27, 2025.

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