It’s December, and that means conference championship week has arrived in college football.
The pregame narrative: Some of the biggest matchups lie ahead on Friday and Saturday with College Football Playoff implications galore. The No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers and No. 11 BYU Cougars could both play their way into the 12-team CFP bracket.
Check out our best college football conference championship picks, featuring prop predictions on Julian Sayin, Nate Frazier and Bear Bachmeier.
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College football conference championship picks
Best bet: Sayin over 231.5 passing yards (-118)
Despite the lack of CFP stakes in Saturday night’s Big Ten championship, there’s plenty up for grabs when the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes clash with the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers.
For one thing, the winner will claim the top seed in the ensuing 12-team playoff field.
And on an individual level, this game should decide whether Sayin or Fernando Mendoza wins the Heisman Trophy.
-> Back Sayin to put on a show vs. No. 2 Indiana
I’m not sure if Sayin will wind up winning the Heisman, but I expect him to be at least put up decent numbers at a neutral, indoor venue.
- With Sayin at the helm, Ohio State ranks No. 1 in NCAA Division I in EPA per pass, net EPA per play and passing success rate, per Game On Paper.
- Indiana allows the fourth-fewest rush yards per game (compared to the 19th-fewest pass yards per game).
Ohio State has an embarrassment of riches in its wide receiver room, as usual. Carnell Tate will be a first-round pick this year, and Jeremiah Smith is basically a lock to follow suit in 2027.
As far inherited arsenals go, Sayin was born on third base. But to his credit, he hasn’t screwed it up. The Alabama transfer leads D-I in passer rating and completion rate.
The Buckeyes are only 4-point favourites, and Indiana’s defence has been better against the run. This should be a great opportunity for Sayin to ball out.
Key stat: Sayin is averaging 255.4 passing yards per game, and he’s 4-2 vs. this passing prop in his past six games.
ACC championship prediction
Virginia -3.5 (-115): It’s wild that unranked Duke (7-5, 6-2 ACC) has stumbled its way into the ACC conference championship game. I expect the Blue Devils to go quietly against the clearly superior No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers.
- Three weeks ago, Virginia went on the road against Duke as a 5-point underdog and dominated in a 34-17 win. The Cavaliers out-gained the Blue Devils by 255 yards and had twice as many first downs (22-11).
- Virginia ranks 45th in D-I in net EPA per play, led by a defence that ranks 21st in yards per game.
- Duke ranks 84th in D-I in net EPA per play and is 111th in total defence.
-> Bet on the ACC championship between Duke and No. 17 Virginia
How could I possibly back the Blue Devils in this matchup?
Keep in mind that Virginia also has the better ATS record at 8-4-0 (Duke’s ATS record is 5-6-1).
What this really comes down to, though, is the dominance that Virginia displayed on the road against Duke less than a month ago.
On a neutral field, with a CFP spot up for grabs, expect another comfortable win for the Hoos.
NCAAF picks and props
Nate Frazier over 61.5 rushing yards (-120): Chauncey Bowens is good to go for the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs, which will clog things up a bit in the backfield.
But I think Frazier has done enough to remain the lead Dawg.
When UGA last faced the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide, Frazier lost a fumble — his second in four weeks — and was benched in favour of Bowens. But Frazier hasn’t fumbled since, and he seems to have regained the trust of head coach Kirby Smart.
- Over his past six games, Frazier has averaged 88.7 rushing yards on 14.2 carries. He has 12+ rush attempts in each of those games.
- From Weeks 7-12, Frazier out-touched Bowens on the ground, 67-38. Frazier was also more efficient than Bowens in that span (5.9 yards/rush, compared to 4.8 yards/rush for Bowens).
Georgia quarterback Gunnar Stockton was abysmal when he last faced Alabama, completing 13 of 20 passes for 130 yards. I certainly don’t expect him to dominate as a passer.
The Bulldogs should lean on their two-headed rushing attack, with Frazier at the helm.
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Bachmeier over 183.5 passing yards (-121): BYU’s freshman quarterback often hasn’t been required to do much this season, as Big 12 rushing leader LJ Martin has largely carried the load on offence.
But Martin was bottled up by the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders when these teams matched up last month (10 carries, 35 yards).
Bachmeier was inefficient in that blowout loss, but he did clear this yardage total with 188 yards on 38 attempts. The Cougars are two-score underdogs in the rematch, and that should mean plenty of obvious passing situations.
On the season, Bachmeier is 6-6 vs. this yardage prop while averaging 216.1 yards.
And he’s finishing strong, going 4-1 vs. this prop down the stretch.
College football picks made at 1:45 p.m. on Dec. 5, 2025.
