NFL Week 15 kicks off with an NFC South battle on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Both the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are struggling right now, but the Bucs could be getting some reinforcements on offence. Tampa beat Atlanta on the road in Week 1 and currently leads the division by the smallest of margins.
Check out my Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks for Dec. 11, featuring a +400 prop bet on Sean Tucker.
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL
Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks
Best Bet: Tucker to score (+400)
The Buccaneers have three healthy running backs right now, and all of them are getting touches.
Tucker is second or third fiddle, depending on the week, but I’m not concerned about volume. This is a quality-over-quantity thing.
- Tucker is the Bucs’ go-to tailback near the goal line. He was the only Tampa RB with a carry inside the 10-yard line last week, and he converted that into a one-yard TD run.
- From Week 6 onward, Tucker has eight carries inside the 10-yard line. Tampa’s other two running backs, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, have combined for six carries inside the 10-yard line in that span.
-> Think Sean Tucker will score vs. the Falcons? Bet now!
I have no disillusions about whose backfield this is. Irving is the lead dog, and he can score from anywhere.
But if the Bucs are looking to punch it in from close range, Tucker is the bruiser who should get the call.
Over his past eight games, the 5-foot-10, 210-pound RB has four rushing touchdowns from inside the 10.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who’s nursing an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, is unlikely to want to scramble toward the end zone. He has only one rush attempt inside the 10-yard line this season.
Tucker is viewed by many as an RB3, but he’s a fringe RB1 at the goal line. At this price, I’ll happily buy into that label.
Atlanta’s defence ranks 26th in rushing success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Key stat: Tucker has four TDs in five games since Tampa’s bye, with eight red zone touches in that span.
-> Place your NFL wagers now at NorthStar Bets
TNF ATS prediction
Buccaneers -4 (-115): Tampa is on a five-game ATS losing streak, and if that’s enough to make you steer clear of this pick, I get it.
But for those sticking around, here’s why I’m backing the Bucs:
- Atlanta is 1-7 SU (2-5-1 ATS) in its past eight games, so it’s not like the visiting squad is thriving these days, either.
- Drake London (knee) was a non-participant in Atlanta’s practice estimate on Monday. On a short week, the team’s top wideout is at risk of missing a fourth consecutive game.
- Mike Evans (collarbone) was listed as limited in Monday’s practice estimate for Tampa Bay. He participated in a limited fashion all of last week and could return for the first time since Week 7.
- Though the Bucs didn’t cover this number in their first matchup of the year vs. the Falcons, they did earn a 23-20 win as 1-point road favourites.
-> Go to full Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF betting markets
Atlanta has been on the move in 10 consecutive weeks, while Tampa Bay is about to play its third consecutive home game. I’m hoping there’s some form of a rest advantage working in the Bucs’ favour.
The Bucs bottled up Bijan Robinson on the ground in Week 1 (12 carries, 24 yards). If London is out again, they should be able to successfully key on Atlanta’s top offensive weapon again.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET Dec. 9, 2025.
