Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Army vs. Navy picks and predictions Dec. 13: Look for Black Knights’ Cale Hellums to find success on offence

The 126th edition of the Army-Navy game is set for Saturday afternoon at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium.

The pregame narrative: Navy (9-2, 7-1 American) is on the cusp of back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in its history. The Midshipmen beat the Black Knights as road underdogs last year, but Army had won and covered in three of four seasons before that.

Check out our best Army vs. Navy picks for the annual rivalry showdown on Dec. 13, featuring a prediction on Army quarterback Cale Hellums.

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Army vs. Navy picks

Best bet: Hellums over 65.5 passing yards (-118)

Hellums is QB1 on Army’s depth chart, but he looks more like an RB1 in the box score.

The sophomore has only attempted 69 passes all season, versus a whopping 271 rushes.

That’s why we’re looking at a double-digit yardage total for Hellums’ passing prop. And I want in on the over.

-> Back Army’s Cale Hellums to go over his passing yards prop vs. Navy

My main reason for backing the over is that Hellums has been more active as a passer in recent weeks compared to the start of the season:

First 6 games: 12-for-27 passing, 149 yards, 5.5 yards/attempt

Past 5 games: 23-for-42 passing, 355 yards, 8.5 yards/attempt

Hellums has attempted nine or more passes in four of his past five games. That’s generally a minuscule number for quarterbacks, but when the yardage line is this low, that might be all we need.

Navy’s defence has been burned by opposing quarterbacks quite a bit this season, which also plays into this prediction.

According to Game On Paper, the Midshipmen rank 131st in the country in EPA per pass on defence, as well as 114th in passing success rate.

Army is a road dog on Saturday afternoon in a game that is expected to be dry and above-freezing. If the Black Knights have to chase a bit, let’s hope Hellums can air it out.

Key stat: In his past five games, Hellums is averaging 71.0 passing yards.

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Over/under prediction

Over 38.5 points (-108): All three NCAA Division I service academies lean heavily on their run games (including Air Force, ironically). That style of play makes it easier to grind the clock, limit possessions and keep scoring low.

Even so, I think the offences in Saturday’s rivalry tilt can outgun the defences and push this game past its 38.5-point projected total.

-> Ready for one of college football’s most storied rivalries? Bet now on the Army-Navy game!

In terms of offensive EPA per play, Navy and Army rank eighth and 17th, respectively, in the country.

Defensively, these schools both rank outside the top 95 in EPA per play.

Last season, they combined for 391 rushing yards in Navy’s 31-13 win.

Overs are 8-3-0 (72.7%) in Navy games this year, which is the fourth-highest hit rate in D-I.

At this number, Navy has cashed the over in 10 of 11 games on the season.

Army, meanwhile, has cleared this point total in seven of 11.

Army vs. Navy football picks made at 3:55 p.m. on Dec. 11, 2025.

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Best NFL Week 15 prop bets: Fade Philip Rivers in NFL return, bet on Cam Ward to produce

Philip Rivers is on the cusp of an improbable return to the NFL, and he’s one of three Sunday targets for Week 15.

The pregame narrative: It’d be a titanic ask by the Indianapolis Colts to have Rivers step in and handle the Seattle Seahawks’ defence, but that seems to be where they’re at. Elsewhere, Cam Ward has a very manageable yardage total on the road for the Tennessee Titans.

Check out my top NFL Week 15 prop bets, featuring a prediction on New York Giants receiver Wan’Dale Robinson.

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NFL Week 15 prop bets

Best bet: Ward over 191.5 passing yards (-115)

In some ways, Ward had a truly miserable stat line last week in Cleveland. He finished 14-of-28 passing for just 117 yards.

There were some positives, though, including a pair of touchdown passes and just one sack taken (which is notable whenever Myles Garrett is lurking). And his Titans got the win.

Ward is back on the road this Sunday, and I like his chances of being more effective through the air. The forecast and the matchup are in his favour.

-> Bet on Ward vs. the 49ers!

According to The Weather Network, Sunday afternoon should be partly cloudy and about 15 °C in Santa Clara, California. Wind is expected to be low, as is the chance of precipitation.

As for the matchup, here are some notable rankings for the 49ers’ pass defence:

25th in yards allowed
25th in net yards/attempt
25th in dropback success rate
27th in EPA/dropback

Ward, the No. 1 overall pick in this past year’s draft, is 7-6 vs. this modest yardage total.

He’s averaging 33.8 pass attempts per game and should be in lots of obvious passing situations against the 49ers, who are 13-point favourites.

I’m not expecting greatness here, but something in the realm of 200 yards should be attainable under the circumstances.

Key stat: Ward is 6-3 vs. this yardage prop in his past nine games, going 3-1 in matchups on the road.

Embed: #122086

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Best NFL picks

Rivers under 146.5 passing yards (-113): As difficult as it is to believe, 44-year-old Rivers fled the glue factory and is back in an NFL locker room for the first time since 2020.

Rivers signed with a desperate Indianapolis Colts squad this week. Though he hasn’t been confirmed as their starter, things appear to be trending that way.

But he didn’t exactly luck out matchup-wise, as the Colts (+14) are set to face the Seahawks’ vaunted defence.

Seattle ranks No. 2 in points allowed, interceptions (15) and net yards per pass (5.0).

-> Don’t miss out — bet on NFL Week 15!

Even if Rivers starts, there’s no guarantee he’ll play the whole game — or that he can convert in obvious passing situations.

The Seahawks have allowed just 158.5 passing yards per game over the past six weeks.

Robinson over 5.5 catches (+110): Robinson has one of the highest target shares in the NFL, and now he’s facing arguably the league’s worst pass defence.

Washington has allowed a 102.6 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, per RotoWire. That ranks in the third percentile.

Additionally, the Commanders’ defence ranks 32nd in EPA per dropback and 30th in dropback success rate, according to RBSDM.com.

Robinson has a 96th-percentile target share (28.0%). He’s seen eight or more targets in six of his past seven games.

The 5-foot-8 slot receiver primarily sees underneath targets that have a higher percentage of being caught. Last week, he caught seven of eight targets … for a paltry 34 yards.

Robinson is 8-5 vs. this milestone prop, which includes catching six passes for 55 yards against the Commanders in Week 1.

NFL prop bets made at 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 11: Bet on Derik Queen, Neemias Queta to produce in the paint

From Thursday’s four-pack of NBA matchups, I’m targeting a pair of plays in the Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans game.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Derik Queen continues to shine for the Pelicans in his rookie season and draws a matchup that is worth targeting. On the other side, Toumani Camara has some intrigue as a passer.

Check out my top NBA prop picks, including a prediction on Boston Celtics centre Neemias Queta.

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NBA prop picks: Dec. 11

Best bet: Queen over 15.5 points (-125)

New Orleans (3-22) probably shouldn’t have handed out an unprotected first-rounder to move up for Queen. Then again, Queen looks pretty awesome so far.

The 6-foot-9, 250-pound centre has worked his way into the Pelicans’ starting lineup and is finding success as a traditional big.

According to Cleaning The Glass, Queen attempts 93% of his shots from inside the arc. Of that, 42% of shot attempts come from the midrange (86th percentile among bigs).

Portland allows a 47.5% field goal rate from the midrange. That’s the fifth-highest FG% from that distance among all teams.

-> See full props for Derik Queen!

Queen has already diced up the Blazers once before, back on Nov. 12. He was still coming off the bench then, but he scored 26 points (12-of-18 shooting) in 37 minutes.

He joined the starting lineup a few games later and is averaging 15.0 PPG since then. Last time out, he put up a season-high 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting.

Portland won’t have 7-footer Donovan Clingan under the net tonight to get in Queen’s way. I expect a clear runway for the rookie to fill the net.

Key stat: Portland is allowing the sixth-most points to opposing centres (24.58/game), per Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

Camara over 2.5 assists (-112): Jrue Holiday is the Blazers’ main facilitator when he’s in the lineup, but he’ll miss his 13th-straight game tonight. In his absence, Deni Avdija has been the team’s assist leader.

But there’s room for others to contribute, too, and Camara is one of those guys.

Since Holiday’s first absence on Nov. 16, Camara is averaging 2.6 APG in 12 games. He’s generating 5.4 potential assists per game, which denotes passes that lead directly to shots.

Camara is 7-5 vs. this prop without Holiday.

-> Full betting markets for tonight’s 4 NBA games!

The Pelicans allow the third-most assists per game (29.0), so there should be enough to go around for Avdija, Camara and others.

When the Blazers faced the Pelicans last month — a game Holiday played in — Camara had five assists in 38 minutes.

NBA player prop predictions

Queta over 8.5 rebounds (-134): I only first heard of Queta a few weeks ago, but he’s a guy I’m sure Celtics fans know very well.

The fifth-year centre is getting starter’s minutes for the first time, and he’s making the most of it. Through 22 games, he’s averaging 10.1 points and 8.2 rebounds in just over 24 minutes.

-> Bet on Neemias Queta vs. the Bucks!

Queta falls below this line more often than not. But I think there’s upside for the 7-footer in a matchup against the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee allows the 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (14.4).

Overall, the Bucks are allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game (45.0).

Queta grabbed 11 boards against the Raptors last time out, and he posted an 18-rebound performance in the past two weeks.

He’ll be the tallest player on the court tonight, and his ceiling is high.

NBA prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.

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Nuggets vs. Kings SGP predictions Dec. 11: Look for Jokic, Westbrook to shine in +475 ticket

For the fourth and final time this season, the Denver Nuggets face the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: Denver has dominated this head-to-head matchup in recent meetings, but Sacramento pulled off a stunning road upset when they last met on Nov. 22. Still, the Nuggets are 10-point favourites on Thursday night as they look to build on a 10-game road winning streak.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Dec. 11, featuring Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook.

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Nuggets vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Westbrook 10+ assists | Jokic 12+ rebounds | Nuggets -7.5 (+475)

Westbrook 10+ assists (-108): With De’Aaron Fox gone and Domantas Sabonis (knee) spending a lot of time on the sidelines, the Kings have had to look elsewhere for their primary passer.

Enter Westbrook, who is averaging a team-high 7.3 assists this year. That’s obviously well below the total I’m asking of him tonight, but things have been trending up.

In his past 12 games without Sabonis, Westbrook is averaging 8.7 APG (5-7 vs. this line).

He’s 3-2 vs. this milestone in his past five games, posting 14 assists in two of those matchups. And in that five-game span, Westbrook is averaging 16.2 potential assists per game (sixth in the NBA).

-> Build your Nuggets vs. Kings SGP at NorthStar Bets

Westbrook is a two-time scoring champ, but his 11.9 field goal attempts per game are nowhere near the 20+ shots he averaged in his heyday.

He’s also a three-time assists leader, as recently as the 2020-21 season, and can clearly still turn it on when needed.

Westbrook finished with 11 assists apiece in his past two games against the Nuggets.

NBA SGP legs

Jokic 12+ rebounds (-152): As much as Sabonis’ absence creates more assist opportunities for Westbrook, I’d say it’s even more notable for what Jokic can do on the glass.

The three-time MVP won’t have to deal with the three-time reigning rebounds champ, which should make things a bit easier.

At 12.3 rebounds per game, Jokic is actually in line to be the NBA’s rebounding leader this season. And he’s 13-10 vs. this prop so far.

Jokic is on pace to average more than 12.0 boards for a third consecutive year.

-> Back Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook on Thursday

Even if Sabonis was playing, I’d still like Jokic at this number.

The superstar centre is 7-1 vs. this milestone in his past eight meetings vs. the Kings, averaging 14.0 RPG in that span.

Nuggets -7.5 (-175): The Nuggets lost outright as 11-point home favourites when they last played the Kings. But Denver was playing on a back-to-back, and I’m chalking that up as a fluke.

Prior to that loss, the Nuggets had won seven in a row in this head-to-head matchup — including a 14-point win in Sacramento on Nov. 11.

Denver, which has a one-day rest advantage tonight, is 3-0 ATS in Sacramento since the start of last season. Looking just at this year, the Nuggets are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS on the road.

Without their top two scorers (Sabonis, Zach LaVine), the Kings should struggle against a very strong Denver squad.

Nuggets vs. Kings SGP made at 11:39 a.m. ET Dec. 11, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 11: Bet on Derik Queen, Neemias Queta to produce in the paint

From Thursday’s four-pack of NBA matchups, I’m targeting a pair of plays in the Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans game.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Derik Queen continues to shine for the Pelicans in his rookie season and draws a matchup that is worth targeting. On the other side, Toumani Camara has some intrigue as a passer with a plus-money price.

Check out my top NBA prop picks, including a prediction on Boston Celtics centre Neemias Queta.

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NBA prop picks: Dec. 11

Best bet: Queen over 15.5 points (-104)

New Orleans (3-22) probably shouldn’t have handed out an unprotected first-rounder to move up for Queen. Then again, Queen looks pretty awesome so far.

The 6-foot-9, 250-pound centre has worked his way into the Pelicans’ starting lineup and is finding success as a traditional big.

According to Cleaning The Glass, Queen attempts 93% of his shots from inside the arc. Of that, 42% of shot attempts come from the midrange (86th percentile among bigs).

Portland allows a 47.5% field goal rate from the midrange. That’s the fifth-highest FG% from that distance among all teams.

-> See full props for Derik Queen!

Queen has already diced up the Blazers once before, back on Nov. 12. He was still coming off the bench then, but he scored 26 points (12-of-18 shooting) in 37 minutes.

He joined the starting lineup a few games later and is averaging 15.0 PPG since then. Last time out, he put up a season-high 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting.

Portland won’t have 7-footer Donovan Clingan under the net tonight to get in Queen’s way. I expect a clear runway for the rookie to fill the net.

Key stat: Portland is allowing the sixth-most points to opposing centres (24.58/game), per Fantasy Pros.

Embed: #122077

Best NBA picks

Camara over 2.5 assists (+102): Jrue Holiday is the Blazers’ main facilitator when he’s in the lineup, but he’ll miss his 13th-straight game tonight. In his absence, Deni Avdija has been the team’s assist leader.

But there’s room for others to contribute, too, and Camara is one of those guys.

Since Holiday’s first absence on Nov. 16, Camara is averaging 2.6 APG in 12 games. He’s generating 5.4 potential assists per game, which denotes passes that lead directly to shots.

Camara is 7-5 vs. this prop without Holiday.

-> Full betting markets for tonight’s 4 NBA games!

The Pelicans allow the third-most assists per game (29.0), so there should be enough to go around for Avdija, Camara and others.

When the Blazers faced the Pelicans last month — a game Holiday played in — Camara had five assists in 38 minutes.

NBA player prop predictions

Queta over 8.5 rebounds (-125): I only first heard of Queta a few weeks ago, but he’s a guy I’m sure Celtics fans know very well.

The fifth-year centre is getting starter’s minutes for the first time, and he’s making the most of it. Through 22 games, he’s averaging 10.1 points and 8.2 rebounds in just over 24 minutes.

-> Bet on Neemias Queta vs. the Bucks!

Queta falls below this line more often than not. But I think there’s upside for the 7-footer in a matchup against the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee allows the 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (14.4).

Overall, the Bucks are allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game (45.0).

Queta grabbed 11 boards against the Raptors last time out, and he posted an 18-rebound performance in the past two weeks.

He’ll be the tallest player on the court tonight, and his ceiling is high.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF Week 15 SGP predictions: Bet on Mike Evans in his return for Tampa Bay

Mike Evans is expected to return for Thursday Night Football this week, and he’s featured in my +340 same-game parlay.

The pregame narrative: Evans, who hasn’t played since Week 7, is a top target whenever he’s on the field for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With an opportunity to stay ahead in the NFC South, Tampa is a home favourite on Thursday against the Atlanta Falcons.

Check out my Falcons vs. Buccaneers SGP predictions for Dec. 11, featuring Bijan Robinson and Rachaad White.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions

SGP: White over 16.5 rush yards | Robinson 30+ rec. yards | Evans 4+ catches (+340)

White over 16.5 rushing yards (-108): Tampa’s RB1 is Bucky Irving, and rightfully so. But White has a carved-out role, and this yardage total should be within his reach.

During Irving’s injury absence from Weeks 5-12, White rushed for 35+ yards every game. He ceded RB1 duties back to Irving in Week 13 and had a very quiet week, but things ticked up again last Sunday.

In Week 14 vs. the Saints, White had 11 carries for 53 yards. That was more efficient than Irving, who turned 15 carries into 55 yards.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay on TNF

White and Irving had identical snap counts last week, with 36 offensive plays apiece. And those 11 carries were a season-high for White in the six games he’s played alongside Irving.

Do I think White will overtake Irving for RB1 duties? Absolutely not. But it’s clear the Bucs are interested in using both tailbacks.

Sean Tucker completes Tampa’s RB trio, but his usage is a distant third. He only had 21 offensive snaps over the past two weeks combined.

White isn’t a flashy name, but he’s utilized enough for me to want the over on his yardage prop.

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Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Robinson 30+ receiving yards (-186): The Bucs bottled up Robinson in the run game in Week 1, holding him to 24 yards on 12 carries.

But he really made them pay as a receiver.

Robinson caught six passes for a season-high 100 yards and a touchdown — galloping for a 50-yard score in the first quarter.

-> Build your own SGP featuring Robinson and Evans here!

The third-year back is in the Jahmyr Gibbs tier when it comes to explosiveness in the open field. Hopefully the Falcons lean into that again on Thursday night.

Robinson is 9-4 vs. this receiving yards prop, averaging 46.3 yards per game with a career-high 10.8 yards per reception.

Evans 4+ catches (-195): It’s crunch time for Tampa Bay, a team that needs to keep winning in order to extend its division title streak to five years. Enter, Evans.

Though his 1,000-yard streak is destined to end at 11 seasons, the 6-foot-5 Evans should walk back into the X receiver role for Tampa and get his fair share of looks.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 15 betting markets

Evans hasn’t played a full game since Week 3. In the first three games of the year, he went 3-0 vs. this milestone while seeing a total of 28 targets.

Dating back to 2021, Evans has four or more catches in six of seven games vs. Atlanta. He caught five passes for 51 yards in the season opener this year.

Evans appeared in practice all of last week and all of this week. He hasn’t been rushed back, so I don’t expect the Bucs to slow-roll his usage.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions made at 3:10 p.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2025.

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Spurs vs. Lakers NBA Cup SGP Dec. 10: Look for Reaves, Fox to help run up the score in quarterfinals action

In the final NBA Cup matchup of the quarterfinals, the Los Angeles Lakers host the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama will miss his 12th consecutive game for the Spurs, whose defence has unsurprisingly taken a big hit in his absence. With him on the court in a matchup on Nov. 5, the Lakers beat the Spurs at home, 118-116.

Check out my +325 Spurs vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Dec. 10, featuring prop bets on De’Aaron Fox and Austin Reaves.

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Spurs vs. Lakers SGP

Parlay: Reaves over 23.5 points | Fox over 23.5 points | Over 232.5 (+325)

Reaves over 23.5 points (-112): When Luka Doncic is out, Reaves has the chance to go nuclear. But even when both players are manning the backcourt, this is a total Reaves tends to crest.

Across all games this season, Reaves is averaging 28.4 points and is 15-5 vs. this points prop.

With Doncic on the floor, Reaves is averaging 24.5 PPG and is 10-5 vs. this prop.

Doncic runs the show on offence, but Reaves is still putting up 15-plus shots most nights when they’re out there together.

-> Build your own Spurs vs. Lakers SGP at NorthStar Bets

Also, Reaves is shooting 87.4% from the free-throw line, where he’s averaging a career-high 9.6 attempts per game.

There’s clearly a concerted effort to get to the line, given that he averaged just 3.6 free-throw attempts in his first four seasons.

Add in the fact that Reaves is attempting a career-high 7.7 threes per game, and we’re looking at a player who’s consistently putting up high-quality shots.

Embed: #122056

NBA SGP legs

Fox over 23.5 points (+100): When Wembanyama is out, Fox has a chance to put up a big point total. He’s proven it many times over in recent weeks, and I like this price to bet on him doing it again.

Fox has scored 25+ points in nine of 11 games without Wemby this season.

In that span, Fox has posted 48.2/39.4/83.5 shooting splits. He’s averaging a healthy volume of shots from 3-point land (6.5 attempts/game) and the free-throw line (7.2).

-> Wager on Reaves & Fox to get buckets!

Fox is set to play the Lakers for the first time as a Spur, but he did face them four times last winter while with the Sacramento Kings. In those games, Fox went 4-0 vs. this point total and posted 28.5 PPG.

Over 232.5 points (-200): I’m picking two players to clear their points props, so backing the over for the game makes sense, right?

This trimmed-down total looks good to me, given how often these teams tend to clear it.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Spurs and Lakers have cashed this over in six of eight head-to-head matchups.

Without Wemby, the two-time reigning blocks champ and heavy Defensive Player of the Year favourite before his injury, it makes sense that the Spurs have had some defensive lapses.

They were sixth in defensive rating before his injury, and they’re 21st in the games since then. The average point total in San Antonio’s past six games is 249.5 points.

-> Check out full NBA Cup betting markets for tonight

Then you have the Lakers, who’ve been the most overs-friendly team in the NBA (16-7-0, 69.6%), per Team Rankings.

Neither team tends to play at a lightning-quick pace, but expect tons of scoring in this one.

Spurs vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:55 a.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2025.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 15 Thursday Night Football picks: Bet on Tampa Bay to bounce back, Sean Tucker to cash +450 prop bet

NFL Week 15 kicks off with an NFC South battle on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Both the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are struggling right now, but the Bucs could be getting some reinforcements on offence. Tampa beat Atlanta on the road in Week 1 and currently leads the division by the smallest of margins.

Check out my Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks for Dec. 11, featuring a +400 prop bet on Sean Tucker.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks

Best Bet: Tucker to score (+450)

The Buccaneers have three healthy running backs right now, and all of them are getting touches.

Tucker is second or third fiddle, depending on the week, but I’m not concerned about volume. This is a quality-over-quantity thing.

Tucker is the Bucs’ go-to tailback near the goal line. He was the only Tampa RB with a carry inside the 10-yard line last week, and he converted that into a one-yard TD run.

From Week 6 onward, Tucker has eight carries inside the 10-yard line. Tampa’s other two running backs, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, have combined for six carries inside the 10-yard line in that span.

-> Think Sean Tucker will score vs. the Falcons? Bet now!

I have no disillusions about whose backfield this is. Irving is the lead dog, and he can score from anywhere.

But if the Bucs are looking to punch it in from close range, Tucker is the bruiser who should get the call.

Over his past eight games, the 5-foot-10, 210-pound RB has four rushing touchdowns from inside the 10.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who’s nursing an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, is unlikely to want to scramble toward the end zone. He has only one rush attempt inside the 10-yard line this season.

Tucker is viewed by many as an RB3, but he’s a fringe RB1 at the goal line. At this price, I’ll happily buy into that label.

Atlanta’s defence ranks 26th in rushing success rate, per RBSDM.com.

Key stat: Tucker has four TDs in five games since Tampa’s bye, with eight red zone touches in that span.

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TNF ATS prediction

Buccaneers -4 (-110): Tampa is on a five-game ATS losing streak, and if that’s enough to make you steer clear of this pick, I get it.

But for those sticking around, here’s why I’m backing the Bucs:

Atlanta is 1-7 SU (2-5-1 ATS) in its past eight games, so it’s not like the visiting squad is thriving these days, either.

Drake London (knee) was a non-participant in Atlanta’s practice estimate on Monday. On a short week, the team’s top wideout is at risk of missing a fourth consecutive game.

Mike Evans (collarbone) was listed as limited in Monday’s practice estimate for Tampa Bay. He participated in a limited fashion all of last week and could return for the first time since Week 7.

Though the Bucs didn’t cover this number in their first matchup of the year vs. the Falcons, they did earn a 23-20 win as 1-point road favourites.

-> Go to full Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF betting markets

Atlanta has been on the move in 10 consecutive weeks, while Tampa Bay is about to play its third consecutive home game. I’m hoping there’s some form of a rest advantage working in the Bucs’ favour.

The Bucs bottled up Bijan Robinson on the ground in Week 1 (12 carries, 24 yards). If London is out again, they should be able to successfully key on Atlanta’s top offensive weapon again.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET Dec. 9, 2025.

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Heat vs. Magic NBA Cup SGP Dec. 9: Bet on Jaquez to thrive, Miami to cover alt spread

The opening matchup in Tuesday’s NBA Cup doubleheader is an all-Florida battle between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: This will be the third meeting in Orlando between these teams already, and the Magic won the first two. Tonight’s game is a pick’em with Franz Wagner (ankle) ruled out for the home team.

Check out my +390 Heat vs. Magic SGP predictions for Dec. 9, featuring prop bets on Jaime Jaquez and Paolo Banchero.

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Heat vs. Magic SGP

Parlay: Jaquez over 10.5 points | Banchero over 20.5 points | Heat +4.5 (+425)

Jaquez over 10.5 points (-106): After receiving Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year votes two seasons ago, Jaquez took a step back as a scorer in 2024-25.

But the third-year forward has taken two steps forward so far this season.

Jaquez has cut down on his 3-point shooting to focus on inside shots that suit him better. He’s posting career-high numbers in shot attempts, free throw attempts and FG%.

-> Build your own Heat vs. Magic SGP at NorthStar Bets

This would be a lot of juice to bet as a straight wager, but it still seems fairly playable based on what should be expected of him. Jaquez is averaging 15.8 PPG, after all.

The former UCLA Bruin is 17-6 vs. this scoring prop, cashing it in both previous matchups vs. the Magic (29 combined points in those games).

NBA SGP legs

Banchero over 20.5 points (-108): Wagner, who leads the Magic in shot attempts and points, suffered an ankle sprain last time out and is expected to miss multiple weeks.

Naturally, some players will have to step up and shoulder a greater offensive workload. Banchero is a prime candidate to do that.

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In 17 career games without Wagner, Banchero has averaged 22.9 points on 19.3 shots. He is 14-3 vs. this milestone.

Despite playing alongside Wagner in all 14 of his games this year, Banchero is averaging 20.4 PPG and is 8-6 vs. this milestone.

Clearing a 20-point milestone is already well within Banchero’s reach, and now he’ll have the opportunity to achieve that without Orlando’s most active shooter. Count me in.

Heat +4.5 (-200): Miami is 0-2 vs. Orlando this season, but those two losses came by a combined five points.

The Heat are now 4-0 ATS in their past four matchups against the Magic, and I think this is a number Miami should absolutely cover tonight.

Orlando is on a four-game ATS losing skid and is just 11-13 ATS on the season. Miami, meanwhile, is 14-10 ATS.

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Miami and Orlando are both 14-10 straight up, and they’re both top-10 in net rating. In a matchup that even, I feel good about picking a side to bank some points with.

And part of my calculus for picking the Heat is the fact that Wagner will sit tonight. Miami should at least be able to keep this one close, as it did in its two previous head-to-head matchups.

Heat vs. Magic predictions made at 11:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 9, 2025.

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Knicks vs. Raptors NBA Cup predictions Dec. 9: Fade Brunson but back New York to cover in quarterfinals

The NBA Cup returns to Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Raptors host the New York Knicks in the quarterfinals.

The latest: Toronto is 1-5 straight up in its past six games and 1-8 ATS in its past seven. After getting blown out by New York on the road recently, the Raptors are unsurprisingly home underdogs at Scotiabank Arena.

Check out these Knicks vs. Raptors predictions for the game on Dec. 9, featuring a prop bet on Jalen Brunson.

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Knicks vs. Raptors predictions

Best bet: Knicks -4.5 (-134)

The Raptors are coming back to Earth after taking off on a rocket ship to open the season.

Over the past two weeks, Toronto has been on a seven-game ATS losing streak.

The team is 2-5 SU in that span with a -8.5 net rating (26th in the NBA). At home, the Raps have lost three in a row.

Toronto has failed to cover a +4.5 spread in four of its past six games — and it was favoured in two of those.

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In the same two-week span that the Raptors have been slumping, the Knicks have been surging.

Since Nov. 25, New York is 6-1 SU and ATS. The team also has the No. 1 net rating in that time (+15.2).

Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) is questionable to play tonight after missing Sunday’s game. But he did practice on Monday, which is a positive sign that he’ll be able to return.

New York dusted Toronto, 116-94, at Madison Square Garden when they squared off at the end of November. Since December 2023, the Knicks are 8-1 ATS (9-0 SU) vs. the Raptors.

The Knicks covered this spread vs. the Magic on Sunday with KAT, and I think they’ll do it again whether or not the big man plays.

Key stat: Toronto has the NBA’s worst true shooting percentage and the sixth-worst turnover rate in the past two weeks.

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Additional NBA prop predictions

Brunson under 2.5 threes (+105): Brunson doesn’t have to have a big night from beyond the arc for the Knicks to win by margin.

After all, he went 1-for-6 from 3-point land in New York’s 22-point win over Toronto less than two weeks ago.

-> Fade Jalen Brunson from 3-point range vs. the Raptors

Brunson has gone under this 3s total in five of his past seven games. He’s shooting 34.0% from deep in that span, which isn’t atrocious, but he’s also only attempting 6.7 threes per night.

Toronto is allowing the third-lowest 3PT% in the NBA (33.3), as well as the seventh-fewest makes.

In his past four games against the Raptors, Brunson is 4-for-22 from deep. This under cashed in all four of those matchups.

Knicks vs. Raptors prop picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on Dec. 9, 2025.

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