Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Best NBA prop picks Dec. 17: Fade Aldama and Allen, look for Reid to cash 3s at plus money

I’ve got a trio of NBA prop picks from Wednesday night’s doubleheader, featuring two predictions from the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves game.

Today’s NBA props narrative: The plus-money price on Naz Reid’s 3s prop is worth a look as the big man continues to score in bunches. On the flip side of tonight’s Memphis/Minnesota matchup, Santi Aldama will likely struggle to score against a potent defence.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 17, featuring Jarrett Allen.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & start betting on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Dec. 17

Best bet: Reid over 2.5 threes (+105)

Reid is on fire from 3-point range right now, and he’s facing a team that should help him keep that rolling.

The Grizzlies allow the fifth-most made 3s (14.5/game) and the sixth-most attempted 3s (39.5/game) in the NBA.

Reid is 5-1 vs. this prop in December.

On the season, Reid is shooting 39.1% from deep on a career-high 6.2 attempts per game.

That’s not quite as much volume as I’d typically want to see for this prop, but Reid’s volume has been trending up.

-> See full props for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves!

First 12 games: 5.2 attempts, 32.3 3PT%, 3-9 vs. this prop

Last 14 games: 7.1 attempts, 43.4 3PT%, 9-6 vs. this prop

In a favourable matchup, these plus-money odds definitely have my attention.

Key stat: Reid is 4-1 vs. this 3s prop in his past five matchups against the Grizzlies, shooting 19-for-33 (57.6%) from deep in those games.

Best NBA picks

Aldama under 15.5 points (-118): This line seems a bit lofty for Aldama, who’s averaging 13.1 points this season.

That’s a career-high mark for the fifth-year power forward, and it doesn’t rise to the number that’s being asked of him tonight.

-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s NBA doubleheader!

Against a team with a top-10 defensive rating, I wouldn’t expect Aldama to have an above-average performance. Especially given how he usually fares in this matchup.

The Timberwolves have held Aldama to 8.4 PPG on 37.0% shooting in their past five matchups against him (since January 2024). This under cashed all five times.

This season, Aldama has gone under this point total in 18 of 26 games.

NBA player prop predictions

Allen under 8.5 rebounds (+100): On paper, the Chicago Bulls are a team Allen should dominate on the boards.

After all, they play fast and allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

But Allen’s minutes workload and rebounding output are at their lowest since his rookie season nine years ago. And I can’t trust him to hit the nine-rebound mark.

-> Bet on Cavaliers vs. Bulls in Chicago!

Allen is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 25.9 minutes, which are his lowest marks since 2017-18.

This under is 12-4 in Allen’s 16 games this season.

He only had three rebounds in his lone matchup vs. the Bulls (Nov. 8).

Allen is one game removed from a six-game absence due to a finger injury, so it’s also possible that his minutes will be capped against the run-and-gun Bulls.

NBA prop picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 17, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Rams vs. Seahawks Week 16 Thursday Night Football picks: Bet on high usage for Puka Nacua in low-scoring TNF battle

Get set for a banger of a matchup on Thursday Night Football, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams.

The pregame narrative: Whoever wins on Thursday will have the inside track on the NFC’s No. 1 seed, so the stakes speak for themselves. L.A. won the first head-to-head matchup thanks to four interceptions from Sam Darnold, but now the Seahawks can return the favour at home.

Check out my Rams vs. Seahawks picks for Dec. 17, featuring a prop bet on Puka Nacua.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Rams vs. Seahawks picks

Best Bet: Nacua over 7.5 receptions (-124)

It feels pretty square to bet an over on Nacua’s prop market, but it feels like the sky is the limit for him right now.

For the second time in three seasons, Nacua has crested the 100-catch mark. He would’ve easily gotten there last year had he played more than 11 games.

Nacua is as reliable and sure-handed as any receiver in the NFL today. He leads WRs in first downs (66) and has a 79.1% catch rate (96th percentile, per RotoWire).

Nacua has 7+ catches in 10 of 13 games and is averaging 9.9 targets.

-> Think Puka Nacua will ball out vs. Seattle? Bet now!

The trick here is that Seattle has one of the very best defences in the NFL, ranking No. 2 in scoring and No. 1 in net pass yards per attempt.

But I expect Nacua to be heavily involved, no matter what. I prefer his receptions total over his yards because the Seahawks are typically adept at eliminating chunk plays.

Last time he faced Seattle, Nacua caught seven of eight targets for 75 yards. That illustrates my point about heavy involvement but a lower ceiling in terms of total yards.

With Davante Adams (hamstring) missing practice on Monday and Tuesday, there’s a real chance for Nacua to see even more targets than usual.

Nacua has gone crazy the past two weeks, combining for 16 catches (22 targets), 348 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams have to continue getting this guy the ball, and I believe they will.

Key stat: Nacua is averaging 7.8 receptions per game.

Embed: #122233

-> Place your NFL wagers now at NorthStar Bets

TNF O/U prediction

Under 42.5 points (-110): These are two great teams with elite defences. On a short week in some gusty conditions, I don’t envision a shootout.

Seattle and L.A. rank second and third, respectively, in EPA per play on defence, according to RBSDM.com.

Both teams are allowing fewer than 19.0 points per game.

According to The Weather Network’s hourly report, wind gusts between 26 and 32 km/hour are expected from 8-10 p.m. in Seattle on Thursday.

-> Go to full Rams vs. Seahawks TNF betting markets

Darnold’s four interceptions in the first matchup between these teams helped keep scoring down, but that’s far from the only low-scoring duel they’ve had recently.

In their past six meetings, unders are 5-1. And the average total in those games was 42.0 points.

Rams vs. Seahawks picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET Dec. 17, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

College Football Playoff schedule and odds: NCAAF matchups, betting lines for first round

The 12-team College Football Playoff is back for a second year with first-round matchups on college campuses.

The latest: On Friday and Saturday night, the road to a CFP national championship kicks off with a four-pack of games from Norman, Oklahoma, to Eugene, Oregon. With two Group of Five schools in the mix, this weekend’s matchups feature a pair of hefty spreads.

Check out the College Football Playoff schedule and our odds for the first-round matchups on Dec. 19-20.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to place your bets on college football

College Football Playoff schedule and odds

No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners

Embed: #122215

Oklahoma joined the SEC last season and is already 2-0 vs. Alabama as a conference foe. That includes a 23-21 win on the road in Tuscaloosa last month.

Alabama is the only three-loss team in the CFP field, and somehow the Tide are road favourites in Norman.

One key storyline to watch is the health of starting running back Jam Miller, who missed four games for Bama this season (including the SEC championship game). Miller, recovering from a leg injury, is expected to return after not appearing on the Dec. 16 injury report.

-> Full markets for every college football bowl game

CFP schedule and betting lines: Dec. 20

No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies

Embed: #122218

Texas A&M lost its bid for a perfect season — and an SEC title — with a road loss against the rival Texas Longhorns three weeks ago. But that meant more time to rest and recover for a matchup against the Hurricanes, who also sat idle for conference championship weekend.

With no rest advantages to speak of, who holds the edge? According to Game On Paper, Texas A&M is slightly ahead thanks to its No. 6 rating in net EPA per play (Miami ranks 13th).

The key battle will be between Carson Beck’s pass offence (fifth in success rate) and the Aggies’ pass defence (third in success rate).

No. 11 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels

Embed: #122216

This is a rare rematch between non-conference programs. Tulane went into Ole Miss on Sept. 20 and got thumped (45-10) as an 11.5-point underdog. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss dominated with 307 passing yards, two passing TDs and 112 yards on the ground.

Three months after beating Tulane by 35, why is Ole Miss only favoured by half that margin? Probably because of the dramatic departure of head coach Lane Kiffin, who left for LSU. Both Ole Miss coordinators are staying put through the playoff, though, so it’s not a total upheaval.

College Football Playoffs: Ducks favoured heavily over Dukes

No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks

Embed: #122217

Just four years into their Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) existence, the Dukes are 12-1 with a CFP berth. Not too shabby. But nothing is expected of them as the lone playoff team without a ranked win.

Oregon has been a top-10 team all year. Its lone blemish came more than two months ago in a 10-point loss vs. now-No. 1 Indiana. The loaded Ducks have three tailbacks averaging six-plus yards per rush and three receivers averaging 15-plus yards per catch.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Best NBA prop picks Dec. 17: Fade Aldama and Allen, look for Reid to cash 3s at plus money

I’ve got a trio of NBA prop picks from Wednesday night’s doubleheader, featuring two predictions from the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves game.

Today’s NBA props narrative: The plus-money price on Naz Reid’s 3s prop is worth a look as the big man continues to score in bunches. On the flip side of tonight’s Memphis/Minnesota matchup, Santi Aldama will likely struggle to score against a potent defence.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 17, featuring Jarrett Allen.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & start betting on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Dec. 17

Best bet: Reid over 2.5 threes (+123)

Reid is on fire from 3-point range right now, and he’s facing a team that should help him keep that rolling.

The Grizzlies allow the fifth-most made 3s (14.5/game) and the sixth-most attempted 3s (39.5/game) in the NBA.

Reid is 5-1 vs. this prop in December.

On the season, Reid is shooting 39.1% from deep on a career-high 6.2 attempts per game.

That’s not quite as much volume as I’d typically want to see for this prop, but Reid’s volume has been trending up.

-> See full props for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves!

First 12 games: 5.2 attempts, 32.3 3PT%, 3-9 vs. this prop

Last 14 games: 7.1 attempts, 43.4 3PT%, 9-6 vs. this prop

In a favourable matchup, these plus-money odds definitely have my attention.

Key stat: Reid is 4-1 vs. this 3s prop in his past five matchups against the Grizzlies, shooting 19-for-33 (57.6%) from deep in those games.

Embed: #122231

Best NBA picks

Aldama under 14.5 points (-107): This line seems a bit lofty for Aldama, who’s averaging 13.1 points this season.

That’s a career-high mark for the fifth-year power forward, and it doesn’t rise to the number that’s being asked of him tonight.

-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s NBA doubleheader!

Against a team with a top-10 defensive rating, I wouldn’t expect Aldama to have an above-average performance. Especially given how he usually fares in this matchup.

The Timberwolves have held Aldama to 8.4 PPG on 37.0% shooting in their past five matchups against him (since January 2024). This under cashed all five times.

This season, Aldama has gone under this point total in 18 of 26 games.

NBA player prop predictions

Allen under 9.5 rebounds (-129): On paper, the Chicago Bulls are a team Allen should dominate on the boards.

After all, they play fast and allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

But Allen’s minutes workload and rebounding output are at their lowest since his rookie season nine years ago. And I can’t trust him to hit the 10-rebound mark.

-> Bet on Cavaliers vs. Bulls in Chicago!

Allen is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 25.9 minutes, which are his lowest marks since 2017-18.

This under is 12-4 in Allen’s 16 games this season.

He only had three rebounds in his lone matchup vs. the Bulls (Nov. 8).

Allen is one game removed from a six-game absence due to a finger injury, so it’s also possible that his minutes will be capped against the run-and-gun Bulls.

NBA prop picks made at 12 p.m. ET on Dec. 17, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

NFL Week 16 upset picks: Panthers, Bears are live underdogs in home divisional matchups

For NFL Week 16 upset picks, I’m targeting a pair of home underdogs in divisional matchups.

The pregame narrative: On Saturday night, the Chicago Bears should get revenge on the Green Bay Packers, who had the league’s worst injury luck in Week 15. Sticking with the NFC, look for the Carolina Panthers to pounce on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home.

Check out my top NFL Week 16 upset picks for Dec. 20-21.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start wagering on the NFL

NFL Week 16 upset picks

Best bet: Bears moneyline (+106)

I understand that this isn’t a particularly bold underdog pick. But we’re still on the proper side of plus money, and the case for the Bears looks compelling to me.

After playing (and winning) at home on Sunday, Chicago will stay home on a short week.

Green Bay suffered a seismic loss over the weekend in Denver, as edge rusher Micah Parsons is believed to have sustained a season-ending knee injury. Green Bay also had its best available safety (Evan Williams), offensive lineman (Zach Tom) and receiver (Christian Watson) leave the game due to injury.

Since Week 3, Chicago is 5-0 at home with a +64 point differential.

When these teams matched up two weeks ago in Green Bay, they were tied with under five minutes to play before the Packers scored the go-ahead touchdown.

Watson was huge in that game, posting 89 receiving yards and two scores. I’m skeptical that he’ll play in the rematch, though his status won’t be determined until later in the week.

-> Bet on the NFL’s Week 16 slate at NorthStar Bets!

Either way, massive losses are stacking up on the Packers’ roster (none more so than Parsons). Against a talented Bears team, that certainly matters.

Losing in Green Bay is the Bears’ only blemish since Week 8. Chicago is healthier and should be better rested for this one.

Key stat: Chicago is 5-3 straight up as an underdog. According to Team Rankings, that’s the second-most underdog wins in the NFL.

Embed: #122220

NFL underdog prediction

Panthers moneyline (+123): The last time the Panthers played at home, they pulled off one of the most stunning upsets of the season, winning by three points over the now-NFC-leading Los Angeles Rams.

Carolina is 6-5 SU as an underdog, sporting wins over the Rams, Packers (on the road) and Cowboys along the way.

-> Wager on NFL Week 16 at NorthStar Bets

The Panthers and Buccaneers play twice in the final three weeks to decide the NFC South title. The stakes are high, and Tampa is expected to come out on top (evidenced by the Bucs’ -360 division odds).

That doesn’t mean a slumping Tampa team will go into Charlotte and get a win, though.

Tampa Bay just blew a two-score, fourth-quarter lead — at home — against the dreadful Falcons.

Since Week 10, the Bucs are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS.

For what it’s worth, Carolina went 2-0 vs. Atlanta with a +33 point differential this year.

The Panthers lost at home to Tampa last year, but the game was decided on a field goal in overtime (and Carolina covered a +6.5 spread).

NFL upset picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on Dec. 15, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets Dec. 15: Ingram, Quickley should drive offence against fast-paced Miami

The Toronto Raptors face the Miami Heat for the first time this season in hopes of turning their fortunes around.

The latest: Toronto has dropped six of its past seven games to slide into the mediocre middle of the Eastern Conference’s playoff picture. But Miami has dropped five of six, so one team is destined to snap out of a slump on Monday night.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat prop bets for the Dec. 15 game at Kaseya Center, featuring predictions on Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NBA today!

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets

Best bet: Ingram over 23.5 points (-118)

After years of being a methodical, muck-it-up NBA team, the Heat are playing at by far the quickest pace in the NBA. As long as they keep that up, I expect Ingram to have the necessary opportunities to cash this bet.

For context, Miami ranked 27th in possessions per 48 minutes last year, averaging 97.08. This season, the Heat are No. 1 at 105.30 possessions.

As you’d expect, more possessions have led to more scoring. Miami is allowing 118.2 points per game this year (22nd), compared to 110.0 PPG last year (seventh).

In his first healthy season for the Raptors, Ingram has embraced the role of their go-to shooter. He’s averaging team highs in points (21.5), field goal attempts (17.0) and free throw attempts (4.9).

That scoring average falls a tick below what is being asked of him tonight, but I’m hoping a high-possession game takes care of that.

-> Full Raptors vs. Heat prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Especially with RJ Barrett (knee) still sidelined. Barrett is one of three Raptors averaging north of 19.0 points this season, so his absence really matters.

In nine games without Barrett, Ingram is averaging 23.1 PPG. And he hit the 30-point threshold in back-to-back games entering tonight.

Key stat: Miami allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (24.66), per Fantasy Pros.

-> Wager on Monday’s 5-game NBA slate

Raptors picks and predictions

Quickley over 6.5 assists (+105): Some Quickley-to-Ingram buckets would be ideal, contributing to both of my predictions. At plus money, IQ is worth a look in this matchup.

At 6.2 assists per game, Quickley is the leader of a team that treats playmaking as a by-committee task.

Barrett (3.8 APG) is a contributing member of that group when healthy, and Quickley has upped his game a bit in Barrett’s absence.

Without Barrett (8 games): 6.6 APG, 12.0 potential assists/game, 4-4 vs. this prop

With Barrett (17 games): 6.0 APG, 9.9 potential assists/game, 7-10 vs. this prop

-> Bet on Quickley & Ingram tonight!

Note that potential assists are any passes that lead directly to shots. So Quickley is averaging about two additional assist opportunities sans Barrett.

Miami allows an NBA-high 9.6 APG to opposing point guards, which is another reason to buy in on Monday.

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets made at 10:25 a.m. ET on Dec. 15, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets Dec. 15: Ingram, Quickley should drive offence against fast-paced Miami

The Toronto Raptors face the Miami Heat for the first time this season in hopes of turning their fortunes around.

The latest: Toronto has dropped six of its past seven games to slide into the mediocre middle of the Eastern Conference’s playoff picture. But Miami has dropped five of six, so one team is destined to snap out of a slump on Monday night.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat prop bets for the Dec. 15 game at Kaseya Center, featuring predictions on Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NBA today!

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets

Best bet: Ingram over 22.5 points (-118)

After years of being a methodical, muck-it-up NBA team, the Heat are playing at by far the quickest pace in the NBA. As long as they keep that up, I expect Ingram to have the necessary opportunities to cash this bet.

For context, Miami ranked 27th in possessions per 48 minutes last year, averaging 97.08. This season, the Heat are No. 1 at 105.30 possessions.

As you’d expect, more possessions have led to more scoring. Miami is allowing 118.2 points per game this year (22nd), compared to 110.0 PPG last year (seventh).

In his first healthy season for the Raptors, Ingram has embraced the role of their go-to shooter. He’s averaging team highs in points (21.5), field goal attempts (17.0) and free throw attempts (4.9).

That scoring average falls a tick below what is being asked of him tonight, but I’m hoping a high-possession game takes care of that.

-> Full Raptors vs. Heat prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Especially with RJ Barrett (knee) still sidelined. Barrett is one of three Raptors averaging north of 19.0 points this season, so his absence really matters.

In nine games without Barrett, Ingram is averaging 23.1 PPG. And he hit the 30-point threshold in back-to-back games entering tonight.

Key stat: Miami allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (24.66), per Fantasy Pros.

Embed: #122219

-> Wager on Monday’s 5-game NBA slate

Raptors picks and predictions

Quickley over 6.5 assists (+100): Some Quickley-to-Ingram buckets would be ideal, contributing to both of my predictions. At even money, IQ is worth a look in this matchup.

At 6.2 assists per game, Quickley is the leader of a team that treats playmaking as a by-committee task.

Barrett (3.8 APG) is a contributing member of that group when healthy, and Quickley has upped his game a bit in Barrett’s absence.

Without Barrett (8 games): 6.6 APG, 12.0 potential assists/game, 4-4 vs. this prop

With Barrett (17 games): 6.0 APG, 9.9 potential assists/game, 7-10 vs. this prop

-> Bet on Quickley & Ingram tonight!

Note that potential assists are any passes that lead directly to shots. So Quickley is averaging about two additional assist opportunities sans Barrett.

Miami allows an NBA-high 9.6 APG to opposing point guards, which is another reason to buy in on Monday.

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets made at 9:25 a.m. ET on Dec. 15, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

NFL Week 16 odds and betting lines: Packers face Bears on Saturday night, Patriots are road ‘dogs in Baltimore

With three weeks to go in the NFL season, there are now four primetime nights of action on the upcoming schedule.

The latest: Week 16’s Thursday Night Football matchup is a massive one that could potentially decide the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Some of the NFL’s best teams (Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers) play on Saturday, Sunday and Monday night as well.

Check out the latest NFL Week 16 odds below.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start wagering on the NFL

NFL Week 16 odds: Betting insights

Thursday’s all-NFC West matchup sells itself. The Rams and Seahawks, the only 10-win NFC teams entering Week 15, are playing to be in the driver’s seat for the conference’s top seed. Los Angeles won the first matchup, 21-19, thanks to four interceptions from Sam Darnold.

Whether or not you believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars as Super Bowl contenders, they don’t seem to be going anywhere. Jacksonville enters the weekend riding a five-game ATS win streak and controls its own destiny in the AFC South. The Jags have scored 25+ points in seven consecutive games.

In search of an 11th-straight win, the New England Patriots blew a 21-point lead — at home — last week vs. the Buffalo Bills. The Pats are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road this season and should face a tough test against a Baltimore Ravens squad that just shut out the Bengals.

-> Week 16 betting odds

Thursday Night Football and Saturday’s doubleheader

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Embed: #122195

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

Embed: #122197

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Embed: #122196

NFL Week 16 schedule: Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

Embed: #122205

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Embed: #122204

New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints

Embed: #122203

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Embed: #122202

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

Embed: #122201

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

Embed: #122199

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

Embed: #122198

NFL 4 p.m. slate

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos

Embed: #122212

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals

Embed: #122211

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans

Embed: #122210

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions

Embed: #122209

SNF & MNF Week 16 games

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

Embed: #122207

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Embed: #122208

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Vikings vs. Cowboys Week 15 TD picks: Addison, Williams will have opportunities to score

With a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Dallas Cowboys host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: With an over/under of 48 points, this SNF matchup has the fourth-highest projected total of the week. That has plenty to do with the Cowboys’ No. 3-ranked scoring offence. I’m backing Javonte Williams to score for the home team as my top TD pick.

Check out my Vikings vs. Cowboys TD picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 14, featuring Jordan Addison.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Vikings vs. Cowboys TD picks

Best bet: Williams to score (-152)

Williams, who was released by the Denver Broncos in the spring and immediately scooped by the Cowboys, has had an excellent debut season for Dallas.

He’s already a 1,000-yard rusher through 13 games, setting career-highs in:

TDs (11)
Rushing success rate (54.9%)
Yards per rush (4.8)
Rush attempts per game (16.5)

-> Bet on Williams to score on Sunday Night Football

Dallas has trimmed down Williams’ receiving work to career-low levels, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, he’s feasting as a runner.

And it’s clear the Cowboys trust him near the end zone, which certainly matters for this pick.

In 12 of 13 games this year, Williams has at least one touch (i.e., a carry or a reception) inside the five-yard line. Overall, he has 20 touches inside the five (No. 2 in the NFL behind Derrick Henry).

Last week in Detroit, Williams had two red zone targets to go with two carries inside the five-yard line. He cashed in with a one-yard TD run.

Dating back to Week 4, Williams has at least four carries and/or targets in the red zone in 10 straight matchups. That’s some serious volume.

Key stat: Williams is 8-5 vs. this prop and has a touchdown in back-to-back games.

Sunday Night Football anytime TD prediction

Addison to score (+180): Though I’m not a fan of what J.J. McCarthy has been up to at the helm of the Vikings’ offence, I can’t ignore how brutal the Cowboys’ pass defence has been.

Dallas has allowed the most yards (2,224) and touchdowns (22) to opposing receivers this season.

Opposing quarterbacks have a 103.5 passer rating vs. Dallas, according to RotoWire, which is the highest in the NFL.

-> See full Vikings vs. Cowboys SNF betting markets

This is the ideal matchup for a talented wideout, and Addison fits the bill.

Despite missing three games at the start of the year, Addison still leads Vikings receivers in red zone targets (12). And he’s been targeted inside the 10-yard line in back-to-back weeks.

Combining this prop price, the matchup and Addison’s red zone usage, I think he’s absolutely worth taking a flier on.

Vikings vs. Cowboys TD picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on Dec. 14, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Best NBA prop picks Dec. 14: Bet on Doncic, Murphy to be active on offence

Luka Doncic headlines Sunday’s NBA prop bets as he continues to be one of the league’s highest-volume shooters.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Doncic chucks 3-pointers with the best of them, and I’m backing the over on his 3s prop for tonight. Elsewhere, look for Trey Murphy and Jalen Johnson to fill the stat sheet.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 14.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & start betting on the NBA!

NBA prop picks: Dec. 14

Best bet: Doncic over 3.5 threes (-163)

The over on Doncic’s point total (35.5) is a bit too rich for me tonight, but I did want to find a way to back him. With a little extra juice on his 3s prop, this seems like a good place to land.

Doncic fires almost as many 3s as anyone, and high volume is a must for a line like this.

His 10.6 attempted 3s per game ranks third in the NBA.

We should see even more triples than usual from Doncic tonight with Austin Reaves (calf) ruled out. Reaves (7.6 3PA) is the only other Laker averaging at least half as many 3-point attempts as Doncic.

-> See full props for Luka Doncic and the Lakers!

In two games without Reaves this year, Doncic is 8-for-21 (38.1%) from deep and cashed this prop both times.

Overall, Doncic is 9-9 vs. this prop in the 2025-26 season.

Shooting at a 33.7% clip from beyond the arc, Doncic isn’t the most efficient shooter by any means. But when you shoot as much as he does, there’s always a chance to clear a line like this.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season (138 games), the five-time All-NBA guard is averaging 3.8 threes on 10.3 attempts.

Key stat: In Doncic’s past five matchups vs. the Suns, he is 4-1 vs. this prop while shooting 41.8% on 11.0 attempts.

Best NBA picks

Johnson over 8.5 assists (-130): Johnson is a frontcourt player who has been doing his best impression of a point guard for quite some time now.

From Nov. 13 onward, Johnson leads the NBA in potential assists per game (18.8), which denotes all passes that lead directly to a shot.

In that span, Johnson is averaging 10.0 APG and is 8-5 vs. this line. He has 12 or more assists in three straight.

-> Full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate!

Johnson will face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, and though he only had seven assists against them last time out (Nov. 30), it’s clear there’s room for a lot more.

The Sixers allow the second-most assists to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros, as well as the ninth-most assists overall.

NBA player prop predictions

Murphy over 19.5 points (-120): The Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans both rank in the bottom three in scoring defence. And the teams combined for 273 points when they last met on Nov. 24.

So, yes, I want a piece of this one in the prop market.

-> Bet on Trey Murphy vs. the Bulls!

Murphy, who’s averaging 21.2 PPG this season, seems like a perfect candidate. He doesn’t even have to reach his scoring average to get this done.

He’s 15-9 vs. this prop this year, landing on exactly 19 points in two other instances.

When he faced the Bulls last month, Murphy shot 4-for-10 from deep and finished with 20 points.

So far in December, Murphy has 20+ points in all five games.

NBA prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Dec. 14, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!