Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

College football bowl picks and predictions Dec. 27: NCAAF best bets on the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Gator Bowl and Texas Bowl

The final Saturday of 2025 is loaded with eight college football bowl games from morning through the night.

The pregame narrative: In the middle of the day, the No. 12 BYU Cougars face the No. 22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the slate’s biggest matchup. Later on, the Houston Cougars should have the advantage in a pseudo-home game against the LSU Tigers.

Check out our best college football bowl picks for Saturday, Dec. 27, featuring a prediction on the Gator Bowl.

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College football bowl picks

Best bet: Houston -2.5 (-110)

Missing the College Football Playoff and paying Brian Kelly $54 million to not coach the team wasn’t on the LSU Tigers’ vision board for 2025. And yet here we are.

I think this lost season will come to a quiet end in what is essentially a home game for its opponents. LSU will face the Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium in Houston (home of the NFL’s Texans).

After going 4-8 in both of their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Cougars went 9-3 this year and finished No. 21 in the CFP rankings.

-> Back Houston to cover as a Texas Bowl favourite vs. LSU

Houston went 5-2 down the stretch, and four of those five wins came as an underdog.

LSU went just 3-5 down the stretch, and each of its losses in that span came by four or more points.

Not only is LSU entering in poorer form and amid a coaching transition (with Lane Kiffin on the recruiting trail but not on the sidelines), but the Tigers will also have a far greater number of absences in this game.

Houston’s only notable opt-out, as of this writing, is centre Demetrius Hunter. He has reportedly left the team.

On LSU’s side, neither receiver Aaron Anderson (leader in receiving yards/game), edge rusher Harold Perkins Jr. (tied for team lead in interceptions), nor cornerback Mansoor Delane (LSU’s lone All-American) will play. The same goes for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who will miss a fourth straight game with an abdominal strain.

Houston has far more continuity and should finish stronger to close out the season. Laying the better part of a field goal doesn’t feel like enough in my view.

Key stat: The Cougars are 8-4 ATS this season, while the Tigers are just 4-8 ATS.

Gator Bowl prediction

Missouri -4 (-110): Given that Missouri’s starting quarterback, Bea Pribula, has departed for the transfer portal, it might seem odd that the Tigers are still favoured in the Gator Bowl.

But even with a backup under centre, Mizzou has the best offensive playmaker in this game, as well as the better team overall.

Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy led the SEC in rushing yards (1,560) and yards per rush (6.5) this season while amassing 16 TDs in 12 games.

According to Game On Paper, Missouri ranks 10th in NCAA Division I in net EPA per play. By comparison, Virginia ranks 44th.

-> Bet on the Gator Bowl between No. 19 Virginia and No. 25 Missouri

The Virginia Cavaliers would be in the CFP if they’d just beaten unranked Duke in the ACC championship game. But they couldn’t get it done, losing by a touchdown as 3.5-point favourites.

Now the Cavaliers, whose defence is a pedestrian 85th in EPA per rush, will have the unenviable task of trying to stop the All-American Hardy. I don’t see it going well.

Mizzou is 6-2 ATS as a favourite this season, per Team Rankings.

NCAAF bowl predictions: Pop-Tarts Bowl

Georgia Tech/BYU over 56 points (-110): There are no reported opt-outs for one of the best non-CFP matchups in bowl season, and that means we’ll see some truly elite offensive talent.

Leading the charge for Georgia Tech is quarterback Haynes King, who was named the ACC Player of the Year. He threw for nearly 250.0 yards per game while also rushing for over 900 yards and a conference-high 15 TDs.

On BYU’s side, running back L.J. Martin is the straw that stirs the drink. He paced the Big 12 in rush yards (1,305) and total touches (272), taking pressure off true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on college football bowl season!

Both teams are scoring over 30.0 points per game, so I know this total is attainable.

This over has cashed in four of Georgia Tech’s past five games, while BYU has hit this over in five of its past nine.

The weakest unit in this game is the Yellow Jackets’ defence, which ranks 102nd in defensive EPA per play.

I’m hoping this one turns into a track meet before the Pop-Tarts mascot takes his fateful toaster plunge.

College football bowl picks made at 1:45 p.m. on Dec. 23, 2025.

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College football bowl picks and predictions Dec. 27: NCAAF best bets on the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Gator Bowl and Texas Bowl

The final Saturday of 2025 is loaded with eight college football bowl games from morning through the night.

The pregame narrative: In the middle of the day, the No. 12 BYU Cougars face the No. 22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the slate’s biggest matchup. Later on, the Houston Cougars should have the advantage in a pseudo-home game against the LSU Tigers.

Check out our best college football bowl picks for Saturday, Dec. 27, featuring a prediction on the Gator Bowl.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on college football

College football bowl picks

Best bet: Houston -3 (-106)

Missing the College Football Playoff and paying Brian Kelly $54 million to not coach the team wasn’t on the LSU Tigers’ vision board for 2025. And yet here we are.

I think this lost season will come to a quiet end in what is essentially a home game for its opponents. LSU will face the Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium in Houston (home of the NFL’s Texans).

After going 4-8 in both of their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Cougars went 9-3 this year and finished No. 21 in the CFP rankings.

-> Back Houston to cover as a Texas Bowl favourite vs. LSU

Houston went 5-2 down the stretch, and four of those five wins came as an underdog.

LSU went just 3-5 down the stretch, and each of its losses in that span came by four or more points.

Not only is LSU entering in poorer form and amid a coaching transition (with Lane Kiffin on the recruiting trail but not on the sidelines), but the Tigers will also have a far greater number of absences in this game.

Houston’s only notable opt-out, as of this writing, is centre Demetrius Hunter. He has reportedly left the team.

On LSU’s side, neither receiver Aaron Anderson (leader in receiving yards/game), edge rusher Harold Perkins Jr. (tied for team lead in interceptions), nor cornerback Mansoor Delane (LSU’s lone All-American) will play. The same goes for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who will miss a fourth straight game with an abdominal strain.

Houston has far more continuity and should finish stronger to close out the season. Laying a field goal doesn’t feel like enough in my view.

Key stat: The Cougars are 8-4 ATS this season, while the Tigers are just 4-8 ATS.

Embed: #122370

Gator Bowl prediction

Missouri -4 (-110): Given that Missouri’s starting quarterback, Bea Pribula, has departed for the transfer portal, it might seem odd that the Tigers are still favoured in the Gator Bowl.

But even with a backup under centre, Mizzou has the best offensive playmaker in this game, as well as the better team overall.

Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy led the SEC in rushing yards (1,560) and yards per rush (6.5) this season while amassing 16 TDs in 12 games.

According to Game On Paper, Missouri ranks 10th in NCAA Division I in net EPA per play. By comparison, Virginia ranks 44th.

-> Bet on the Gator Bowl between No. 19 Virginia and No. 25 Missouri

The Virginia Cavaliers would be in the CFP if they’d just beaten unranked Duke in the ACC championship game. But they couldn’t get it done, losing by a touchdown as 3.5-point favourites.

Now the Cavaliers, whose defence is a pedestrian 85th in EPA per rush, will have the unenviable task of trying to stop the All-American Hardy. I don’t see it going well.

Mizzou is 6-2 ATS as a favourite this season, per Team Rankings.

NCAAF bowl predictions: Pop-Tarts Bowl

Georgia Tech/BYU over 56 points (-115): There are no reported opt-outs for one of the best non-CFP matchups in bowl season, and that means we’ll see some truly elite offensive talent.

Leading the charge for Georgia Tech is quarterback Haynes King, who was named the ACC Player of the Year. He threw for nearly 250.0 yards per game while also rushing for over 900 yards and a conference-high 15 TDs.

On BYU’s side, running back L.J. Martin is the straw that stirs the drink. He paced the Big 12 in rush yards (1,305) and total touches (272), taking pressure off true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on college football bowl season!

Both teams are scoring over 30.0 points per game, so I know this total is attainable.

This over has cashed in four of Georgia Tech’s past five games, while BYU has hit this over in five of its past nine.

The weakest unit in this game is the Yellow Jackets’ defence, which ranks 102nd in defensive EPA per play.

I’m hoping this one turns into a track meet before the Pop-Tarts mascot takes his fateful toaster plunge.

College football bowl picks made at 1:45 p.m. on Dec. 23, 2025.

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Raptors vs. Heat prop bets Dec. 23: Fade Scottie Barnes amid scoring slump

The Toronto Raptors look to end a recent slide on the road in South Beach against the Miami Heat.

The latest: Just last week, the Raptors beat the Heat in Miami as 5-point underdogs. Still, Toronto is just 2-6 in its past eight and has slid into the mediocre middle of the NBA’s Eastern Conference. On Tuesday night, the Raps are 5.5-point dogs.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat prop bets for Dec. 23, featuring predictions on Kel’el Ware and Scottie Barnes.

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Raptors vs. Heat prop bets Dec. 23

Best bet: Ware over 11.5 rebounds (-134)

I don’t understand the Heat’s lineup decisions for Ware, who has bounced in and out of the starting rotation throughout the season. But I think he’s earned an extended run as a starter moving forward.

The second-year centre has started in 19 of 29 games, including each of the past three. And the results were excellent:

Dec. 18: 30 min, 22 pts, 12 reb
Dec. 19: 28 min, 24 pts, 14 reb
Dec. 21: 34 min, 28 pts, 19 reb

It’s worth noting that Bam Adebayo played in all three of those games, so it’s not as if Ware is just benefiting from a fellow big man’s absence.

-> Full Raptors vs. Heat prop markets at NorthStar Bets

But speaking of absences, Ware should prosper from the fact that Jakob Poeltl (back) is out tonight for Toronto.

Poeltl is the only Raptor who’s taller than 6-foot-9 and heavier than 240 pounds, and his lack of size will leave more rebounding opportunities for Ware.

As mentioned, Ware has had some inconsistencies this year moving in and out of Miami’s starting lineup. But the last time he received an extended look as a starter, the results spoke for themselves.

From Nov. 7-24, Ware started in nine of 10 games for the Heat. He went 8-2 vs. this prop while averaging 13.9 RPG.

Key stat: Ware had 13 rebounds against the Raptors in just 19:20 off the bench on Dec. 15.

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-> Wager on Tuesday’s 14-game NBA slate

Raptors picks and predictions

Barnes under 19.5 points (-112): This under is 19-11 this season for Barnes, who’s averaging 19.1 PPG.

In other words, he’s generally a strong fade candidate at this number. And he’s slumping right now, which bolsters my case.

Barnes has gone under 19.5 points in six of his past seven games. He’s averaging 14.7 PPG and shooting 44.0% from the field in that span.

One notable aspect is Barnes’ 3-point shooting. He’s only 6-for-27 (22.2%) from deep in his past seven games.

Prior to that, he’d shot 41.5% from 3-point range over his first 23 games.

-> Check out Barnes’ full prop markets vs. the Heat!

Miami has really locked things up defensively in recent weeks, ranking fifth in the NBA in defensive rating over its past 15 games.

This isn’t a team Barnes is going to enjoy running into amid a slump.

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets made at 11:33 a.m. ET on Dec. 23, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 23: Look for Reaves and Young to shine on offence

Two nights before Christmas, the NBA is stocked with a 14-game slate.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: On Tuesday, Trae Young should have a field day against the Chicago Bulls in a matchup between two teams ranked in the top five in pace. Later on, Devin Vassell has even-money value from 3-point land against the defending champs.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 23, featuring a prediction on Austin Reaves.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 23

Best bet: Reaves over 27.5 points (-125)

Reaves has missed the Los Angeles Lakers’ past three games with a calf strain, and he’s questionable to play tonight. Obviously, that’s a situation to monitor.

But if Reaves does return tonight, he’s well worth a play at this number because his backcourt mate, Luka Doncic, is sidelined with an injury of his own.

So far, Reaves has played five games without Doncic this season. And his scoring numbers are off the charts:

40.0 PPG
52.3 FG%
41.7 3PT%
28+ points in 5 of 5

On the season, Reaves’ 27.8 PPG scoring average ranks 11th in the NBA. Doncic (34.1 PPG) is the league’s top scorer).

Only one other team has multiple players averaging 25-plus points each, but no one has a tandem that’s putting up more than 60 combined.

-> See full props for Lakers vs. Suns!

The point is, Reaves and Doncic score in bunches together … and Reaves should be even more emboldened to get buckets without the NBA’s top scorer.

On Tuesday, Reaves will face the Phoenix Suns for the second time this month. He had a quiet showing in their Dec. 1 matchup (16 points on 6-of-12 shooting), but that was a Doncic takeover game (38 points on 15-of-26 shooting).

Hopefully, Reaves is the one taking over tonight.

Key stat: Reaves is 5-0 vs. this points prop without Doncic this season.

Best NBA picks

Vassell over 2.5 threes (+100): Vassell is in a groove from beyond the arc, cashing this bet in nine of his past 14 games while shooting 44.9% from deep. This is an excellent time to buy in.

The Oklahoma City Thunder has the No. 1 defence in the NBA, so tonight’s matchup might not seem like a good one for Vassell. But OKC’s 3-point defence isn’t as daunting.

The Thunder allow the ninth-most 3s on the seventh-most attempts per game. Vassell went 4-for-9 from deep against OKC just 10 days ago.

-> Full betting markets for Tuesday’s NBA slate

Victor Wembanyama has been coming off the bench for the Spurs since returning from injury, and his 3-point volume has taken a hit during that time. He has only attempted 11 threes in four games as a reserve.

The runway is clear for Vassell to put up a bunch of 3s and cash a few of them.

NBA player prop predictions

Young over 33.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110): Tonight’s projected total for the Bulls vs. Hawks matchup is a league-high 253 points.

This should be a track meet, with Young running wild.

The Bulls and Hawks just played two nights ago in Atlanta, and the visitors came away with a 152-150 win. In only 26 minutes, Young had 35 points, nine assists and a rebound.

Back in October, Young also cashed this bet in a 128-123 loss to Chicago (21 points, 17 assists, three rebounds).

-> Bet on Trae Young in a fast-paced Bulls vs. Hawks matchup!

In five matchups against Chicago since the start of last season, Young is averaging 40.0 PRA. This is a smash play as far as I’m concerned.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 23, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 23: Look for Reaves and Young to shine on offence

Two nights before Christmas, the NBA is stocked with a 14-game slate.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: On Tuesday, Trae Young should have a field day against the Chicago Bulls in a matchup between two teams ranked in the top five in pace. Later on, Devin Vassell has plus-money value from 3-point land against the defending champs.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 23, featuring a prediction on Austin Reaves.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 23

Best bet: Reaves over 28.5 points (-106)

Reaves has missed the Los Angeles Lakers’ past three games with a calf strain, and he’s questionable to play tonight. Obviously, that’s a situation to monitor.

But if Reaves does return tonight, he’s well worth a play at this number because his backcourt mate, Luka Doncic, is sidelined with an injury of his own.

So far, Reaves has played five games without Doncic this season. And his scoring numbers are off the charts:

40.0 PPG
52.3 FG%
41.7 3PT%
28+ points in 5 of 5

On the season, Reaves’ 27.8 PPG scoring average ranks 11th in the NBA. Doncic (34.1 PPG) is the league’s top scorer).

Only one other team has multiple players averaging 25-plus points each, but no one has a tandem that’s putting up more than 60 combined.

-> See full props for Lakers vs. Suns!

The point is, Reaves and Doncic score in bunches together … and Reaves should be even more emboldened to get buckets without the NBA’s top scorer.

On Tuesday, Reaves will face the Phoenix Suns for the second time this month. He had a quiet showing in their Dec. 1 matchup (16 points on 6-of-12 shooting), but that was a Doncic takeover game (38 points on 15-of-26 shooting).

Hopefully, Reaves is the one taking over tonight.

Key stat: Reaves is 4-1 vs. this points prop without Doncic this season, landing on exactly 28 points in the outlier.

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Best NBA picks

Vassell over 2.5 threes (+125): Vassell is in a groove from beyond the arc, cashing this bet in nine of his past 14 games while shooting 44.9% from deep. This is an excellent time to buy in.

The Oklahoma City Thunder has the No. 1 defence in the NBA, so tonight’s matchup might not seem like a good one for Vassell. But OKC’s 3-point defence isn’t as daunting.

The Thunder allow the ninth-most 3s on the seventh-most attempts per game. Vassell went 4-for-9 from deep against OKC just 10 days ago.

-> Full betting markets for Tuesday’s NBA slate

Victor Wembanyama has been coming off the bench for the Spurs since returning from injury, and his 3-point volume has taken a hit during that time. He has only attempted 11 threes in four games as a reserve.

The runway is clear for Vassell to put up a bunch of 3s and cash a few of them.

NBA player prop predictions

Young over 33.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120): Tonight’s projected total for the Bulls vs. Hawks matchup is a league-high 252 points.

This should be a track meet, with Young running wild.

The Bulls and Hawks just played two nights ago in Atlanta, and the visitors came away with a 152-150 win. In only 26 minutes, Young had 35 points, nine assists and a rebound.

Back in October, Young also cashed this bet in a 128-123 loss to Chicago (21 points, 17 assists, three rebounds).

-> Bet on Trae Young in a fast-paced Bulls vs. Hawks matchup!

In five matchups against Chicago since the start of last season, Young is averaging 40.0 PRA. This is a smash play as far as I’m concerned.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 23, 2025.

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Lakers vs. Clippers SGP predictions Dec. 20: Bet on LeBron James and Luka Doncic at +320

The Battle of Los Angeles is renewed tonight when the Clippers host the Lakers at Intuit Dome.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers have been the much better team this season, compiling a 19-7 record compared to their cross-town rivals’ 6-21 mark. This matchup is practically a pick’em, though with Austin Reaves and Deandre Ayton out for the visitors.

Check out my Lakers vs. Clippers SGP predictions for Dec. 20, featuring Luka Doncic and LeBron James.

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Lakers vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Clippers +8.5 | Doncic 10+ assists | James 2+ threes (+320)

Clippers +8.5 (-435): Reaves’ absence shouldn’t be understated tonight. The guard is having the best season of his career, averaging career highs in points (27.8), rebounds (5.6), and assists (6.7).

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He’s unquestionably the No. 2 star on the team behind Doncic, having eclipsed LeBron in productivity this year.

As for Ayton, the big man is contributing a tidy 15.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game on 71% shooting.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lakers still won this game thanks to a herculean effort from Doncic, but don’t think they should run away with it.

The Clippers are fully healthy and have a solid starting five. The team’s bench has been the real issue, but that should be mitigated given the Lakers’ injury concerns.

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NBA SGP legs

Doncic 10+ assists (-107): The Clippers should be double-teaming Doncic on every possession tonight. If they do, I’m confident the Slovenian can work some magic as a passer.

Doncic is third in assists per game so far (9.1) and ranks sixth in potential assists per game (14.6), which NBA.com denotes as a pass leading directly to a shot.

He has averaged 11.8 assists in his last five games without Reaves, which dispels any idea that he’ll be purely in shoot-first mode tonight.

The Clippers allow the sixth-most assists per game to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

-> Back LeBron and Doncic on Saturday night

James 2+ threes (-129): In a perfect world, Doncic is lining them up, and James is knocking ’em down.

The King is having a dreadful 3-point shooting year, posting a career-worst 26.1% rate. But that has to change at some point, right?

It’s not like we’ve seen LeBron steadily decline. He reshaped his game in recent years to be more 3-point heavy, and shot 37.6% and 41.0% from deep in the last two seasons.

Tonight should be a good matchup for LeBron to get some mojo going.

The Clippers have the worst 3-point defence in the NBA (38.9%).

Lakers vs. Clippers predictions made at 1:50 p.m. on Dec. 20, 2025.

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College Football Playoff picks and predictions: 2025 NCAAF first-round props and best bets

The first round of the College Football Playoff is here, and I’ve got a prediction for all four matchups.

The pregame narrative: First up, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners square off in a rematch that should be a defensive struggle. Then, during Saturday’s tripleheader, look for the Oregon Ducks to bottle up James Madison’s Wayne Knight.

Check out my best 2025 College Football Playoff predictions for the Dec. 19-20 games, featuring prop picks on Jake Retzlaff and Malachi Toney.

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College Football Playoff predictions

Best bet: Retzlaff over 31.5 rushing yards (-122)

Quarterback rushing props can often be tricky enterprises at the collegiate level, given that sack yards count against a QB’s rushing total.

But Retzlaff seldom takes sacks, and he’s facing a team that doesn’t disrupt opposing QBs very effectively. So that’s not much of a concern for me.

The Ole Miss Rebels’ defence is tied for 52nd in NCAA Division I in sack rate (6.28%) and tied for 55th in sacks per game (2.1).

Retzlaff’s Tulane Green Wave have the fourth-lowest offence sack rate in D-I (2.51%).

-> Back Retzlaff and No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

Retzlaff, the BYU transfer, has really made a point of using his legs this season. Through 13 games, he has 610 yards and 16 touchdowns.

In the same amount of games with BYU last season, he had 417 yards and six TDs.

Retzlaff’s willingness to run has meant the world to a Tulane squad that lost 1,400-yard rusher Makhi Hughes to the transfer portal this past offseason. No tailback has stepped up to fill the void, leaving Retzlaff as the lead runner.

Ole Miss has one of the absolute worst run defences in the country, according to Game On Paper. The Rebs rank 132nd in defensive EPA per rush and 130th in rushing success rate.

As three-score underdogs, the Green Wave might be in a lot of obvious passing situations. But those can turn into scramble situations for Retzlaff in a blink.

Key stat: Retzlaff is 8-5 vs. this prop and is averaging 46.9 rush yards per game this season.

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Crimson Tide vs. Sooners CFP picks

Alabama/Oklahoma under 41.5 points (-114): Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables is arguably the most brilliant defensive mind in college football, and he just had three full weeks to prepare for this game. Saddle up.

This will be the second meeting between these schools in 2025, after the Sooners beat the Tide, 23-21, in Alabama on Nov. 15. The projected total for that game was 46.5, so the under cashed.

Last season, in Oklahoma, the Sooners won 24-3 while holding Alabama to 234 total yards.

-> Bet now on No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma

Unders are 6-1 when Oklahoma is at home this season — and 10-2 in the Sooners’ games overall.

Oh, and Alabama has cashed the under in nine of its past 10 games.

This should be a rock fight, with Oklahoma’s stout defence (No. 7 in scoring, No. 2 in success rate) leading the charge.

College football prop predictions

Knight under 70.5 rushing yards (-120): The Sun Belt’s rushing leader went over 70.5 yards in 11 of 13 games this season, but he’s in for a matchup unlike any other on Saturday night.

Knight’s James Madison Dukes are 21.5-point underdogs against the No. 5 Oregon Ducks, which is the largest spread of the CFP first round.

It’s also vastly different than what JMU is accustomed to after being favoured in 12 of 13 games this season.

The only time the Dukes weren’t favoured was back in Week 2 in a road date against Louisville. JMU was a 15-point dog and lost, 28-14. Knight was bottled up, accruing just 12 yards on five rushes.

Saturday’s game script should be working against Knight almost from the jump. And the Ducks are no slouches at defending the run.

Oregon ranks 17th in rush yards per attempt (3.3) and 20th in rush yards per game (112.8).

-> Don’t miss out — bet on this weekend’s college football action!

NCAAF best bets

Malachi Toney over 78.5 receiving yards (-118): When No. 10 Miami faces No. 7 Texas A&M, it’ll be a battle of two strong pass offences against two strong pass defences.

Though I can’t say for sure which strengths will win out, I trust that the Hurricanes will do what it takes to get the ball in the hands of Toney.

The freshman has been a prominent piece of Mario Cristobal’s offence from the start, going for 80-plus yards in Weeks 1 and 2.

On the season, Toney is 6-6 vs. this yardage prop while averaging 80.8 yards.

The Miami native has seen eye-popping target shares in the past two games, and I’m hoping some of that production carries forward.

In Weeks 13 and 14, Toney had 25 catches (31 targets) for 272 yards and two TDs.

College Football Playoff predictions made at 12:15 p.m. on Dec. 18, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 18: Bet the over on Stephon Castle and Anthony Black’s assist props

A pair of young point guards are highlighted in Thursday night’s NBA prop picks.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Stephon Castle has built off an award-winning rookie campaign to be the primary facilitator for the San Antonio Spurs, and he should be active in that role tonight. Elsewhere, look for Anthony Black to take advantage of an outsized role caused by injuries.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 18, featuring Jalen Duren.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 17

Best bet: Black over 4.5 assists (+110)

With Jalen Suggs (hip) ruled out for tonight, the Orlando Magic will hand starting point guard duties over to Black tonight in Denver.

At just 3.3 assists/game on the season, this line would normally look too aggressive for Black. But with starter’s minutes — and the plus-money price — I see a prop worth buying in on.

Black has 4+ assists in nine of his past 11 games, so he’s been knocking on this door rather consistently in recent weeks.

In that 11-game span, he posted 16 assists across three starts (2-1 vs. this prop).

-> See full props for Magic vs. Nuggets!

Looking just at his past five games, Black has actually been the Magic’s top facilitator — even more than Suggs.

In those games, Black leads the team with 9.2 potential assists/game. Potential assists are any passes that lead directly to a shot.

I’m not sure whether or not this will make a difference, but Black is also in a shooting slump.

He’s 20-for-65 (30.8%) over his past five games. Maybe that poor shooting will further encourage him to dish the rock.

Key stat: Black has at least four assists in five straight games, averaging 5.2 APG in that span.

Best NBA picks

Castle over 6.5 assists (-118): It may not count in his official season stats, but Castle just had 12 assists against the Knicks in the NBA Cup final. That’s the kind of ceiling we’re working with for the second-year player.

After missing nine games, Castle has been back for four and appears to be at full strength. He’s a good bet to put up a big assist total against the Wizards.

-> Full betting markets for Thursday’s massive 12-game NBA slate!

Washington allows the fourth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.28/game), per Fantasy Pros. The Wizards also allow the most assists per game overall.

Including the NBA Cup final, Castle is averaging 7.2 APG on the season and has 6+ assists in 11 of 17 games.

Look for the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year to stay active as a passer in a Grade-A matchup.

NBA player prop predictions

Duren over 28.5 points and rebounds (-125): It’ll be worth monitoring the Dallas Mavericks’ injury report throughout the day to see if Anthony Davis (calf) suits up tonight.

I’m on this prop either way, but it’ll feel safer if the three-time blocks champion sits out for a second consecutive game.

AD was on the shelf when the Mavericks faced the Detroit Pistons early last month, and Duren feasted that night: 33 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes.

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Duren is 11-12 vs. this prop this season, but the matchup tonight looks like a good one either way.

Dallas allows the third-most points and fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on Dec. 18, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 18: Bet the over on Stephon Castle and Anthony Black’s assist totals

A pair of young point guards are highlighted in Thursday night’s NBA prop picks.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Stephon Castle has built off an award-winning rookie campaign to be the primary facilitator for the San Antonio Spurs, and he should be active in that role tonight. Elsewhere, look for Anthony Black to take advantage of an outsized role caused by injuries.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 18, featuring Jalen Duren.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 17

Best bet: Black over 4.5 assists (+123)

With Jalen Suggs (hip) ruled out for tonight, the Orlando Magic will hand starting point guard duties over to Black tonight in Denver.

At just 3.3 assists/game on the season, this line would normally look too aggressive for Black. But with starter’s minutes — and the plus-money price — I see a prop worth buying in on.

Black has 4+ assists in nine of his past 11 games, so he’s been knocking on this door rather consistently in recent weeks.

In that 11-game span, he posted 16 assists across three starts (2-1 vs. this prop).

-> See full props for Magic vs. Nuggets!

Looking just at his past five games, Black has actually been the Magic’s top facilitator — even more than Suggs.

In those games, Black leads the team with 9.2 potential assists/game. Potential assists are any passes that lead directly to a shot.

I’m not sure whether or not this will make a difference, but Black is also in a shooting slump.

He’s 20-for-65 (30.8%) over his past five games. Maybe that poor shooting will further encourage him to dish the rock.

Key stat: Black has at least four assists in five straight games, averaging 5.2 APG in that span.

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Best NBA picks

Castle over 6.5 assists (-120): It may not count in his official season stats, but Castle just had 12 assists against the Knicks in the NBA Cup final. That’s the kind of ceiling we’re working with for the second-year player.

After missing nine games, Castle has been back for four and appears to be at full strength. He’s a good bet to put up a big assist total against the Wizards.

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Washington allows the fourth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.28/game), per Fantasy Pros. The Wizards also allow the most assists per game overall.

Including the NBA Cup final, Castle is averaging 7.2 APG on the season and has 6+ assists in 11 of 17 games.

Look for the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year to stay active as a passer in a Grade-A matchup.

NBA player prop predictions

Duren 30+ points and rebounds (-103): It’ll be worth monitoring the Dallas Mavericks’ injury report throughout the day to see if Anthony Davis (calf) suits up tonight.

I’m on this prop either way, but it’ll feel safer if the three-time blocks champion sits out for a second consecutive game.

AD was on the shelf when the Mavericks faced the Detroit Pistons early last month, and Duren feasted that night: 33 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes.

-> Bet on Pistons vs. Mavericks in Dallas!

Duren is 11-12 vs. this prop this season, but the matchup tonight looks like a good one either way.

Dallas allows the third-most points and fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 18, 2025.

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Rams vs. Seahawks Week 16 Thursday Night Football picks: Bet on high usage for Puka Nacua in low-scoring TNF battle

Get set for a banger of a matchup on Thursday Night Football, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams.

The pregame narrative: Whoever wins on Thursday will have the inside track on the NFC’s No. 1 seed, so the stakes speak for themselves. L.A. won the first head-to-head matchup thanks to four interceptions from Sam Darnold, but now the Seahawks can return the favour at home.

Check out my Rams vs. Seahawks picks for Dec. 17, featuring a prop bet on Puka Nacua.

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Rams vs. Seahawks picks

Best Bet: Nacua over 7.5 receptions (-143)

It feels pretty square to bet an over on Nacua’s prop market, but it feels like the sky is the limit for him right now.

For the second time in three seasons, Nacua has crested the 100-catch mark. He would’ve easily gotten there last year had he played more than 11 games.

Nacua is as reliable and sure-handed as any receiver in the NFL today. He leads WRs in first downs (66) and has a 79.1% catch rate (96th percentile, per RotoWire).

Nacua has 7+ catches in 10 of 13 games and is averaging 9.9 targets.

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The trick here is that Seattle has one of the very best defences in the NFL, ranking No. 2 in scoring and No. 1 in net pass yards per attempt.

But I expect Nacua to be heavily involved, no matter what. I prefer his receptions total over his yards because the Seahawks are typically adept at eliminating chunk plays.

Last time he faced Seattle, Nacua caught seven of eight targets for 75 yards. That illustrates my point about heavy involvement but a lower ceiling in terms of total yards.

With Davante Adams (hamstring) missing practice on Monday and Tuesday, there’s a real chance for Nacua to see even more targets than usual.

Nacua has gone crazy the past two weeks, combining for 16 catches (22 targets), 348 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams have to continue getting this guy the ball, and I believe they will.

Key stat: Nacua is averaging 7.8 receptions per game.

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TNF O/U prediction

Under 42 points (-110): These are two great teams with elite defences. On a short week in some gusty conditions, I don’t envision a shootout.

Seattle and L.A. rank second and third, respectively, in EPA per play on defence, according to RBSDM.com.

Both teams are allowing fewer than 19.0 points per game.

According to The Weather Network’s hourly report, wind gusts between 26 and 32 km/hour are expected from 8-10 p.m. in Seattle on Thursday.

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Darnold’s four interceptions in the first matchup between these teams helped keep scoring down, but that’s far from the only low-scoring duel they’ve had recently.

In their past six meetings, unders are 5-1. And the average total in those games was 42.0 points.

Rams vs. Seahawks picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET Dec. 17, 2025.

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