Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

College Football Playoff quarterfinal picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl and more

As the calendar flips from 2025 to ’26, we’ve got four College Football Playoff matchups to look forward to.

The pregame narrative: The Miami (FL) Hurricanes and Ohio State Buckeyes kick things off with the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve, giving way to a Jan. 1 tripleheader to begin 2026. Watch out for the underdog Ole Miss Rebels in the Sugar Bowl as they rematch the Georgia Bulldogs.

Check out my best College Football Playoff picks for the Dec. 31 and New Year’s Day games, featuring prop predictions on Jake Retzlaff and Malachi Toney.

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College Football Playoff picks

Best bet: Miami/Ohio State under 42 points (-110)

I have a ton of respect for the Buckeyes’ defence, which boasts four players who could go in the first round of next year’s NFL draft.

Defensively, Ohio State ranks in the top five in NCAA Division I in yards per dropback, EPA per rush and rushing success rate, according to Game On Paper.

The Buckeyes have allowed 8.2 PPG, which is the best mark in the country. Not a single opponent has scored 17+ points.

Miami was on the road in the first round of the CFP, clawing out a 10-3 victory over No. 7 Texas A&M. Quarterback Carson Beck was atrocious, throwing for just 103 yards on 20 attempts.

-> Go to full Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl markets

The Cotton Bowl will feature two stellar defences, as the Hurricanes certainly hold their own in that regard.

Led by Rueben Bain Jr., a surefire first-round pick coming off the edge, Miami ranks fourth in opponent PPG (13.0) and 14th in yards per play.

The Hurricanes forced three turnovers in their first playoff game while holding Texas A&M to 2.5 yards per rush.

Ohio State struggled to muster up offence in a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, and I expect a similar defensive battle at Jerry World in Texas.

Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Ohio State’s past five games overall, and they’re 4-1 in Miami’s five games away from home this season.

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Orange Bowl prediction

Oregon/Texas Tech under 52.5 points (-109): For teams with alumni like Marcus Mariota, LaMichael James, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, it might feel wrong to bet the under.

But I have more faith in the defences than the offences. And it’s as simple as that.

Texas Tech and Oregon rank seventh and 16th, respectively, in defensive success rate. In offensive success rate, they rank 86th and 22nd, respectively.

Both teams are allowing fewer than 17.0 PPG this season.

Both teams rank in the top five in yards allowed per play.

Oregon’s Dante Moore could be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft if he chooses to come out. And TTU’s Behren Morton led the Big 12 in passer rating this season. So there’s strong offensive talent on both sides, too.

-> Bet now on No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

But the Ducks have finished well below this total in back-to-back games away from home. I think that’ll happen again.

On the Red Raiders’ side, unders are 7-3 in their past 10.

College football prop picks

Williams under 31.5 receiving yards (-122): After a superb freshman season, it seemed like the sky would be Williams’ limit in 2025.

It hasn’t panned out that way, though.

Williams has just four receiving TDs and 48.9 receiving yards per game this season. That’s half as many touchdowns and nearly 20.0 yards/game fewer than last year.

Williams’ 48.9 YPG is still well above this prop’s line, but he’s trending in the wrong direction.

He only has four total catches in his past four games, averaging 15.8 yards in that span.

Williams failed to garner a target in the Iron Bowl, and he was held to just one catch for five yards in Alabama’s first-round matchup against Oklahoma.

In the Crimson Tide’s first-round CFP win on Dec. 19, five receivers finished with more yards than Williams.

SEC passing leader Ty Simpson knows how to air it out, but he’s rarely looking for Williams these days.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on the upcoming College Football Playoff action!

Sugar Bowl prediction: ATS best bet

Ole Miss +7 (-120): Back in October, the Ole Miss Rebels carried a two-score lead — on the road — into the fourth quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Georgia put up 17 unanswered points from there to win by eight, but again, it did so from the comfort of home.

In a rematch on a neutral field, I like the Rebels’ chances of at least keeping this close.

Since its loss to Georgia, Ole Miss is 4-1-1 ATS (and the ATS loss was a 49-0 victory as a -50 favourite vs. The Citadel).

In their first game in the post-Lane Kiffin era, the Rebs earned a convincing 31-point victory in the first round of the CFP (as -16.5 favourites vs. Tulane).

Georgia is just 1-3 ATS in its past four games when favoured by four or more points. It’s difficult to win — and cover — against the same team twice in less than three months.

College Football Playoff picks made at 2:45 p.m. on Dec. 29, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 29: Bet on Brunson, Jokic to shine on Monday night

I’m looking for Jalen Brunson to stay active from 3-point land on Monday night as one of my three NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Brunson is 16-for-36 (44.4%) from deep in his past three games and has some plus-money intrigue against the New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, I like Nikola Jokic to put up yet another hefty assist total.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 29, featuring a prediction on Toumani Camara.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 29

Best bet: Jokic over 11.5 assists (-106)

I know this line is high, but I still think it’s worth it to back the NBA’s premier passer.

Jokic leads the league in assists per game (11.1). He’s on track for a career-high assist total after setting his career-best mark last season (10.2 APG).

Jokic is second in the NBA in potential assists per game (18.1). On a nightly basis, he’s averaging just north of 18 passes that lead directly to a shot.

In December, Jokic is 7-5 vs. this prop while averaging 11.3 APG.

The three-time MVP has 12+ assists in four straight games. He should extend that streak in a plus matchup tonight against the Miami Heat.

-> Bet on Jokic — the NBA MVP favourite!

On first glance, the Heat don’t seem like a great matchup because they rank fourth in defensive rating. But they are also playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 104.67 possessions per game.

With likely more possessions than he’s used to, Jokic should have more opportunities to pad his sky-high assist totals.

Just last month, the big man put up 16 assists as part of a triple-double against Miami in a 10-point win.

Key stat: Against the Heat, Jokic is 2-1 vs. this prop since the start of last season, with 40 total assists in that span.

Best NBA picks

Camara under 14.5 points (–125): Camara has hit the 20-point mark in back-to-back games, but that’s not a large enough sample to sway me toward the over.

On the season, the power forward is averaging 12.8 points. He’s gone under in 19 of 32 games this season.

So it’s been above a 50% hit rate this year, and I like the under in a matchup against some strong defensive bigs. The Dallas Mavericks have Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis in their frontcourt.

-> Full betting markets for Monday’s NBA slate

Davis is questionable to play, but even if he’s out, I like Flagg and Co. to hold down the fort.

Against the Davis-less Mavericks last month, Camara finished with 11 points in 41 minutes of a high-scoring overtime loss (138-133).

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, this under is 6-2 when Camara faces Dallas.

NBA player prop predictions

Brunson over 2.5 threes (-120): Brunson has really ratcheted up his 3-point shot volume in the past few games, and he has the perfect matchup to keep that rolling tonight.

In December, Brunson is attempting 8.5 threes per game. He averaged 7.5 attempts in 17 games before that.

More notably, he has 11+ attempted 3s in each of his past three matchups. And he went 3-0 vs. this milestone prop in that span.

-> Bet on Jalen Brunson in tonight’s Knicks vs. Pelicans matchup!

New Orleans allows the most 3-point attempts per game (41.7), so why should Brunson slow down now?

I’m hoping he doesn’t, and at this line, I’ll willingly take the plunge.

NBA prop picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2025.

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Magic vs. Raptors prop bets Dec. 29: Look for Anthony Black to seize opportunity in Toronto

The Toronto Raptors wrap up a home back-to-back on Monday night with the Orlando Magic in town.

The latest: Toronto toppled the Golden State Warriors in overtime last night at Scotiabank Arena to snap a five-game home losing skid. The Raptors went 3-1 straight up vs. the Magic last year despite being underdogs in all four games.

Check out my Magic vs. Raptors prop bets for Dec. 29, featuring predictions on Brandon Ingram and Anthony Black.

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Magic vs. Raptors prop bets

Best bet: Ingram under 1.5 threes (+123)

Judging by Ingram’s December output from 3-point land, I have no business making this prediction.

Ingram is shooting 38.0% from deep this month and averaging 2.3 makes. Still, I see a path to the under.

For one thing, Ingram has cashed this under slightly more than half the time this season (17-16, 51.5%).

Additionally, the Magic have a distinctly stingy 3-point defence. Opponents are attempting the fewest 3s per game against them (32.4).

-> Full Magic vs. Raptors prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Ingram is 1-for-15 from deep over his past two games, which is evidence that he can go ice cold in a hurry. And a substantial 3-point shot volume won’t necessarily save him.

I’m expecting the Magic to take away some of that volume tonight, leaving Ingram with a thinner margin for error from beyond the arc.

Also, Ingram surpassed 39 minutes last night for just the second time this season. A lack of rest could be a factor for tonight’s back-to-back.

Key stat: Ingram is just 3-for-13 from deep over his past four games against Orlando.

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Raptors picks and predictions

Black over 18.5 points (-118): When Franz Wagner (ankle) went down a few weeks ago, Black stepped into the starting lineup. He had a couple of slow games out of the gate, but now he’s off and running.

Black is 6-0 vs. this prop in his past six games.

In that six-game span, he’s averaging 24.2 PPG on 17.3 field goal attempts and shooting 48.8% from deep.

-> Wager on Monday’s 11-game NBA slate

Oh, and the third-year point guard is coming off a career game: 38 points on 14-of-24 shooting against a terrific Denver Nuggets squad.

Most folks would’ve expected Paolo Banchero to shoulder most of the scoring load for Orlando with Wagner out, but Black has been the one steering the ship.

I don’t expect his scoring line to stay this low for much longer.

Magic vs. Raptors prop bets made at 11:35 a.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 29: Bet on Brunson, Jokic to shine on Monday night

I’m looking for Jalen Brunson to stay active from 3-point land on Monday night as one of my three NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Brunson is 16-for-36 (44.4%) from deep in his past three games and has some plus-money intrigue against the New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, I like Nikola Jokic to put up yet another hefty assist total.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 29, featuring a prediction on Toumani Camara.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 29

Best bet: Jokic over 10.5 assists (-136)

I know there’s some extra juice, but this line is well worth the price for the NBA’s premier passer.

Jokic leads the league in assists per game (11.1). He’s on track for a career-high assist total after setting his career-best mark last season (10.2 APG).

Jokic is second in the NBA in potential assists per game (18.1). On a nightly basis, he’s averaging just north of 18 passes that lead directly to a shot.

In December, Jokic is 8-4 vs. this prop while averaging 11.3 APG.

The three-time MVP has 12+ assists in four straight games. He should extend that streak in a plus matchup tonight against the Miami Heat.

-> Bet on Jokic — the NBA MVP favourite!

On first glance, the Heat don’t seem like a great matchup because they rank fourth in defensive rating. But they are also playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 104.67 possessions per game.

With likely more possessions than he’s used to, Jokic should have more opportunities to pad his sky-high assist totals.

Just last month, the big man put up 16 assists as part of a triple-double against Miami in a 10-point win.

Key stat: Against the Heat, Jokic is 2-1 vs. this prop since the start of last season, with 40 total assists in that span.

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Best NBA picks

Camara under 13.5 points (-110): Camara has hit the 20-point mark in back-to-back games, but that’s not a large enough sample to sway me toward the over.

On the season, the power forward is averaging 12.8 points. He’s 16-16 vs. this points prop.

So it’s been a 50% hit rate this year, and I like the under in a matchup against some strong defensive bigs. The Dallas Mavericks have Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis in their frontcourt.

-> Full betting markets for Monday’s NBA slate

Davis is questionable to play, but even if he’s out, I like Flagg and Co. to hold down the fort.

Against the Davis-less Mavericks last month, Camara finished with 11 points in 41 minutes of a high-scoring overtime loss (138-133).

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, this under is 6-2 when Camara faces Dallas.

NBA player prop predictions

Brunson 4+ threes (+150): Brunson has really ratcheted up his 3-point shot volume in the past few games, and he has the perfect matchup to keep that rolling tonight.

In December, Brunson is attempting 8.5 threes per game. He averaged 7.5 attempts in 17 games before that.

More notably, he has 11+ attempted 3s in each of his past three matchups. And he went 3-0 vs. this milestone prop in that span.

-> Bet on Jalen Brunson in tonight’s Knicks vs. Pelicans matchup!

New Orleans allows the most 3-point attempts per game (41.7), so why should Brunson slow down now?

I’m hoping he doesn’t, and at this price, I’ll willingly take the plunge.

NBA prop picks made at 10:05 a.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2025.

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Bears vs. 49ers Week 17 Sunday Night Football picks: Fade Christian McCaffrey but back the Niners to cover at home

A pair of red-hot NFC teams with a lot on the line will meet in prime time for Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are both 11-4 and have a shot at the conference’s top seed. San Francisco, riding a five-game win streak (straight up and ATS), is a 3-point home favourite.

Check out my Bears vs. 49ers picks for Dec. 28, featuring a prop bet on Christian McCaffrey.

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Bears vs. 49ers picks

Best Bet: McCaffrey under 41.5 receiving yards (-118)

McCaffrey is having an elite season and should exceed 2,000 scrimmage yards for the third time in his career.

That’s why he’s on the shortlist of Offensive Player of the Year contenders.

The 49ers should look to get McCaffrey plenty of touches again on Sunday night — adding to his NFL-high average of 24.8 touches per game — but I don’t expect that to translate into a big night as a receiver.

The Bears have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs this year (363). On a per-game basis, that’s only 24.2 yards per game.

McCaffrey is averaging 56.5 receiving yards per game this season … but this under is 4-1 in his past five games.

-> Fade McCaffrey as a receiver on Sunday Night Football

McCaffrey went over 41.5 receiving yards in 10 straight games to start the season. But the Niners were missing either Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall (or both) in seven of those games.

Jennings has been a monster down the stretch, with seven TDs in his past seven games, and is fully healthy. Pearsall missed last week’s game but practiced all week and appears likely to suit up.

George Kittle (ankle) is questionable, and his absence could mean more targets underneath for McCaffrey.

I expect the veteran tight end to tough it out and play, but even if he doesn’t, this matchup is a bad one for McCaffrey as a receiver.

The Bears have only allowed three running backs to clear this receiving yards total all season.

Key stat: McCaffrey has averaged 31.4 receiving yards over his past five games.

SNF ATS prediction

49ers -3 (-112): Both teams are riding high entering this weekend, and it’s certainly not easy to fade a Chicago squad that’s 5-0-1 ATS since Week 11.

But I’m not all the way impressed with the Bears’ efforts on the road. And that’s a key part of my rationale for this prediction.

Yes, Chicago pulled off an impressive Black Friday win in Philadelphia four weeks ago, but the Bears’ overall results away from Soldier Field are just so-so.

Despite a 5-3 road record, Chicago has a -34 point differential in those matchups. Ben Johnson’s bunch has executed several Houdini-calibre escapes to climb to the top of the NFC North.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

I’m not expecting the Niners to be the next victim. San Francisco is 7-2-1 ATS as a favourite this season, covering in six straight games while laying points.

Each of the Niners’ past seven wins has come by at least 10 points. If you think the home team will win — and I do — expect it to be by margin.

Bears vs. 49ers picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET Dec. 27, 2025.

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Bears vs. 49ers Week 17 Sunday Night Football picks: Fade Christian McCaffrey but back the Niners to cover at home

A pair of red-hot NFC teams with a lot on the line will meet in prime time for Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are both 11-4 and have a shot at the conference’s top seed. San Francisco, riding a five-game win streak (straight up and ATS), is a 3-point home favourite.

Check out my Bears vs. 49ers picks for Dec. 28, featuring a prop bet on Christian McCaffrey.

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Bears vs. 49ers picks

Best Bet: McCaffrey under 42.5 receiving yards (-112)

McCaffrey is having an elite season and should exceed 2,000 scrimmage yards for the third time in his career.

That’s why he’s on the shortlist of Offensive Player of the Year contenders.

The 49ers should look to get McCaffrey plenty of touches again on Sunday night — adding to his NFL-high average of 24.8 touches per game — but I don’t expect that to translate into a big night as a receiver.

The Bears have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs this year (363). On a per-game basis, that’s only 24.2 yards per game.

McCaffrey is averaging 56.5 receiving yards per game this season … but this under is 4-1 in his past five games.

-> Fade McCaffrey as a receiver on Sunday Night Football

McCaffrey went over 42.5 receiving yards in 10 straight games to start the season. But the Niners were missing either Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall (or both) in seven of those games.

Jennings has been a monster down the stretch, with seven TDs in his past seven games, and is fully healthy. Pearsall missed last week’s game but practiced all week and appears likely to suit up.

George Kittle (ankle) is questionable, and his absence could mean more targets underneath for McCaffrey.

I expect the veteran tight end to tough it out and play, but even if he doesn’t, this matchup is a bad one for McCaffrey as a receiver.

The Bears have only allowed three running backs to clear this receiving yards total all season.

Key stat: McCaffrey has averaged 31.4 receiving yards over his past five games.

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SNF ATS prediction

49ers -3 (-114): Both teams are riding high entering this weekend, and it’s certainly not easy to fade a Chicago squad that’s 5-0-1 ATS since Week 11.

But I’m not all the way impressed with the Bears’ efforts on the road. And that’s a key part of my rationale for this prediction.

Yes, Chicago pulled off an impressive Black Friday win in Philadelphia four weeks ago, but the Bears’ overall results away from Soldier Field are just so-so.

Despite a 5-3 road record, Chicago has a -34 point differential in those matchups. Ben Johnson’s bunch has executed several Houdini-calibre escapes to climb to the top of the NFC North.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

I’m not expecting the Niners to be the next victim. San Francisco is 7-2-1 ATS as a favourite this season, covering in six straight games while laying points.

Each of the Niners’ past seven wins has come by at least 10 points. If you think the home team will win — and I do — expect it to be by margin.

Bears vs. 49ers picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET Dec. 27, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 27: Bet on Nikola Jokic, Andrew Nembhard to rack up assists

The NBA MVP favourite is back in action tonight after an epic Christmas Day performance, and I’m backing him to ball out again.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Nikola Jokic does it all for the Denver Nuggets. On Saturday night, his assists prop is what has my eye. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Canadian Andrew Nembhard to do his part as a passer.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 27, featuring a prediction on Derik Queen.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 27

Best bet: Nembhard over 1.5 threes (-143)

Tyrese Haliburton’s season-long injury absence is obviously a substantial negative for the Indiana Pacers.

But for those in search of a silver lining, allow me to introduce you to Nembhard’s fourth-year surge.

The Aurora, Ontario native leads the team in assists (6.5/game) and is third in points (17.4/game). In Years 1-3, he averaged 9.6 points and 4.6 assists.

Haliburton was the primary passer on last year’s Indiana squad, and he was the main 3-point shooter, too.

Though Nembhard isn’t leading the Pacers in shot volume from the outside, he has taken on far greater responsibility in that realm.

This season: 5.0 attempts/game, 36.2 3PT%

First three seasons: 2.9 attempts/game, 33.5 3PT%

-> See full props for Pacers vs. Heat!

I’m not wowed by Nembhard’s efficiency, but at 5.0 attempted 3s per game, he’s worth a look in this prop market.

Tonight, Nembhard will face a fast-paced Miami Heat team that averages 104.54 possessions per game (most in the NBA). The Heat allow the second-most attempted 3s to their opponents (41.2/game).

If Saturday’s game is free-flowing, look for Nembhard to put up enough 3s to give this over a good chance.

Key stat: Nembhard is 13-10 vs. this 3s prop, including 9-6 in his past 15 (with a 38.9 3PT% in that span).

Best NBA picks

Queen under 13.5 points (-106): Queen’s New Orleans Pelicans will host the Phoenix Suns for the second time in as many nights tonight, and I think the big man is worth fading.

This has nothing to do with the fact that it’s a back-to-back, but rather that the Suns have already bottled him up twice in his rookie season.

Last night, Queen was held to seven points on 3-for-9 shooting in a 115-108 loss.

On Nov. 10, the ex-Maryland centre shot 5-for-10 from the floor to finish with 12 points (in a 121-98 loss).

-> Full betting markets for Saturday’s NBA slate

The Suns play at the 10th-slowest pace in the NBA and allow the ninth-fewest points. I’m not saying they have Queen figured out, per se, but their style of play mixed with their results against him so far make this under a solid pick.

Queen has gone under 13.5 points in 19 of 32 games so far.

NBA player prop predictions

Jokic over 10.5 assists (-130): This price feels like a steal for arguably the best passer in the sport.

Jokic is averaging a league-high 18.2 potential assists, which denotes passes that lead directly to a shot. He’s also first in the NBA in actual assists (11.0/game).

In December, Jokic is 7-4 vs. this prop.

In a win over the Orlando Magic on Dec. 18, Jokic had 13 assists as part of a triple-double. Now, coming off his best game of the season (a 56-point triple-double on Christmas Day), he’ll face the Magic again.

-> Bet on Nikola Jokic in Nuggets vs. Magic on Saturday night!

Jokic has 10+ assists in four of five games vs. Orlando since the start of the 2023-24 season. Backing him over 10.5 assists at a playable price is great value.

NBA prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 27, 2025.

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Knicks vs. Hawks SGP predictions Dec. 27: Jalen Brunson should guide New York to comfortable road win

The New York Knicks embark on a three-game road trip to conclude 2025, starting with a Saturday night showdown against the Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: New York swept last year’s season series against Atlanta, a team that has lost five in a row. At home, the Hawks are just 5-10 SU (4-11 ATS).

Check out my Knicks vs. Hawks SGP predictions for Dec. 27, featuring prop bets on Jalen Brunson and Jalen Johnson.

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Knicks vs. Hawks predictions

Parlay: Knicks -5.5 | Brunson 3+ threes | Johnson 10+ rebounds (+410)

Knicks -5.5 (-141): Beating the teams you’re supposed to beat will carry you a long way in pro sports.

The Knicks are absolutely doing that this season, which helps explain why they’re in second place in the Eastern Conference with January nearing.

When favoured by 5.5 points or more, New York is 12-1 ATS so far this season. The last time the Knicks laid at least that many points on the road, they won by 16 (in Toronto on Dec. 9).

-> Bet on NBA futures at NorthStar Bets

New York and Atlanta haven’t squared off yet this season, but the Knicks went 3-0 SU in this matchup last year.

Two of those wins covered this margin, including a 121-105 road victory in April.

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NBA SGP legs

Brunson 3+ threes (-152): I’m not sure I’d play this as a straight wager, only because of how juiced the prop is. But it’s right in the wheelhouse for this SGP.

Brunson is coming off substantial 3-point shot volume in his past two games, going 12-for-25 from deep in that span. He cashed this bet easily both times.

In six games vs. Atlanta since the start of the 2023-24 season, Brunson is 5-1 vs. this prop. He’s averaging 4.3 makes on 8.5 attempts in those matchups.

-> Back the Jalens (Brunson and Johnson) on Saturday night

The Hawks have been a down-the-middle matchup for opposing 3-point shooters this season, but I’m loving Brunson’s recent performances against them.

And for a guy averaging 3.3 threes on 39.8% shooting this month, this looks like a smash play.

Johnson 10+ rebounds (-150): Josh Hart (ankle) won’t play for New York tonight, which makes every Atlanta rebounder’s job easier.

That includes Johnson, though he’s a good pick to hit this rebounding milestone no matter who else is under the rim.

Johnson is averaging 10.4 rebounds this season and is 18-11 vs. this prop.

He’s been particularly successful on the glass recently, going 10-2 vs. this prop in his past 12 games. The 6-foot-8 forward finished with nine rebounds in both outliers.

Johnson had 42 rebounds across three matchups vs. the Knicks last year, cashing this prop all three times.

Knicks vs. Hawks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on Dec. 27, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 27: Bet on Nikola Jokic, Andrew Nembhard to rack up assists

The NBA MVP favourite is back in action tonight after an epic Christmas Day performance, and I’m backing him to ball out again.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Nikola Jokic does it all for the Denver Nuggets. On Saturday night, his assists prop is what has my eye. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Canadian Andrew Nembhard to do his part as a passer.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 27, featuring a prediction on Derik Queen.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 27

Best bet: Nembhard over 1.5 threes (-143)

Tyrese Haliburton’s season-long injury absence is obviously a substantial negative for the Indiana Pacers.

But for those in search of a silver lining, allow me to introduce you to Nembhard’s fourth-year surge.

The Aurora, Ontario native leads the team in assists (6.5/game) and is third in points (17.4/game). In Years 1-3, he averaged 9.6 points and 4.6 assists.

Haliburton was the primary passer on last year’s Indiana squad, and he was the main 3-point shooter, too.

Though Nembhard isn’t leading the Pacers in shot volume from the outside, he has taken on far greater responsibility in that realm.

This season: 5.0 attempts/game, 36.2 3PT%

First three seasons: 2.9 attempts/game, 33.5 3PT%

-> See full props for Pacers vs. Heat!

I’m not wowed by Nembhard’s efficiency, but at 5.0 attempted 3s per game, he’s worth a look in this prop market.

Tonight, Nembhard will face a fast-paced Miami Heat team that averages 104.54 possessions per game (most in the NBA). The Heat allow the second-most attempted 3s to their opponents (41.2/game).

If Saturday’s game is free-flowing, look for Nembhard to put up enough 3s to give this over a good chance.

Key stat: Nembhard is 13-10 vs. this 3s prop, including 9-6 in his past 15 (with a 38.9 3PT% in that span).

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Best NBA picks

Queen under 14.5 points (-121): Queen’s New Orleans Pelicans will host the Phoenix Suns for the second time in as many nights tonight, and I think the big man is worth fading.

This has nothing to do with the fact that it’s a back-to-back, but rather that the Suns have already bottled him up twice in his rookie season.

Last night, Queen was held to seven points on 3-for-9 shooting in a 115-108 loss.

On Nov. 10, the ex-Maryland centre shot 5-for-10 from the floor to finish with 12 points (in a 121-98 loss).

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The Suns play at the 10th-slowest pace in the NBA and allow the ninth-fewest points. I’m not saying they have Queen figured out, per se, but their style of play mixed with their results against him so far make this under a solid pick.

Queen has gone under 14.5 points in 19 of 32 games so far.

NBA player prop predictions

Jokic over 10.5 assists (-103): This price feels like a steal for arguably the best passer in the sport.

Jokic is averaging a league-high 18.2 potential assists, which denotes passes that lead directly to a shot. He’s also first in the NBA in actual assists (11.0/game).

In December, Jokic is 7-4 vs. this prop.

In a win over the Orlando Magic on Dec. 18, Jokic had 13 assists as part of a triple-double. Now, coming off his best game of the season (a 56-point triple-double on Christmas Day), he’ll face the Magic again.

-> Bet on Nikola Jokic in Nuggets vs. Magic on Saturday night!

Jokic has 10+ assists in four of five games vs. Orlando since the start of the 2023-24 season. Backing him over 10.5 assists at near-even money is great value.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 27, 2025.

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Raptors vs. Heat prop bets Dec. 23: Fade Scottie Barnes amid scoring slump

The Toronto Raptors look to end a recent slide on the road in South Beach against the Miami Heat.

The latest: Just last week, the Raptors beat the Heat in Miami as 5-point underdogs. Still, Toronto is just 2-6 in its past eight and has slid into the mediocre middle of the NBA’s Eastern Conference. On Tuesday night, the Raps are 5.5-point dogs.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat prop bets for Dec. 23, featuring predictions on Kel’el Ware and Scottie Barnes.

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Raptors vs. Heat prop bets Dec. 23

Best bet: Ware over 12.5 rebounds (-118)

I don’t understand the Heat’s lineup decisions for Ware, who has bounced in and out of the starting rotation throughout the season. But I think he’s earned an extended run as a starter moving forward.

The second-year centre has started in 19 of 29 games, including each of the past three. And the results were excellent:

Dec. 18: 30 min, 22 pts, 12 reb
Dec. 19: 28 min, 24 pts, 14 reb
Dec. 21: 34 min, 28 pts, 19 reb

It’s worth noting that Bam Adebayo played in all three of those games, so it’s not as if Ware is just benefiting from a fellow big man’s absence.

-> Full Raptors vs. Heat prop markets at NorthStar Bets

But speaking of absences, Ware should prosper from the fact that Jakob Poeltl (back) is out tonight for Toronto.

Poeltl is the only Raptor who’s taller than 6-foot-9 and heavier than 240 pounds, and his lack of size will leave more rebounding opportunities for Ware.

As mentioned, Ware has had some inconsistencies this year moving in and out of Miami’s starting lineup. But the last time he received an extended look as a starter, the results spoke for themselves.

From Nov. 7-24, Ware started in nine of 10 games for the Heat. He went 7-3 vs. this prop while averaging 13.9 RPG.

Key stat: Ware had 13 rebounds against the Raptors in just 19:20 off the bench on Dec. 15.

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Raptors picks and predictions

Barnes under 19.5 points (-118): This under is 19-11 this season for Barnes, who’s averaging 19.1 PPG.

In other words, he’s generally a strong fade candidate at this number. And he’s slumping right now, which bolsters my case.

Barnes has gone under 19.5 points in six of his past seven games. He’s averaging 14.7 PPG and shooting 44.0% from the field in that span.

One notable aspect is Barnes’ 3-point shooting. He’s only 6-for-27 (22.2%) from deep in his past seven games.

Prior to that, he’d shot 41.5% from 3-point range over his first 23 games.

-> Check out Barnes’ full prop markets vs. the Heat!

Miami has really locked things up defensively in recent weeks, ranking fifth in the NBA in defensive rating over its past 15 games.

This isn’t a team Barnes is going to enjoy running into amid a slump.

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets made at 11:33 a.m. ET on Dec. 23, 2025.

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