Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

NFL divisional round matchups, schedule and betting odds: Bills are slight road favourites vs. top-seeded Broncos

NFL divisional schedule

The top-seeded Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos will both be in action on Saturday as part of a four-pack of NFL divisional round games.

The latest: Seattle comes off its bye to face the thinning San Francisco 49ers for a third time. Denver, meanwhile, looks like it could be laying a point or two against the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos enjoyed an 8-1 record at Mile High this season.

Check out the NFL divisional schedule and our odds for the second-round matchups on Jan. 17-18, 2026.

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NFL divisional schedule and odds

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos: Saturday, Jan. 17 (4:30 p.m. ET)

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  • The Broncos opened as very modest underdogs, which is an exceedingly rare spot for a team coming off a bye. According to The Action Network, Denver would be just the fourth underdog in the playoffs coming off a bye, and each of the previous three teams won straight up.
  • Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen took a beating against the Jaguars’ physical defence. He went to the medical tent early on for a head injury assessment and later appeared to injure his knee on a touchdown run.

    He’ll play as long as Hell doesn’t freeze over, but this matchup is a daunting one. Denver leads the NFL in sacks (4.0/game) and QB knockdown rate (13.5%).
  • Unders have gone 4-2 in Buffalo’s past six road games, and the under cashed in Buffalo’s 31-7 win over Denver in the wild-card round last year.

-> See player prop markets for the second round of the NFL playoffs

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Saturday, Jan. 17 (8:00 p.m. ET)

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  • Interestingly, both Seattle and San Francisco won and covered as road favourites against each other during the regular season. Both of those spreads were inside of 4 points, though, so this -7.5 line stands out.
  • George Kittle suffered a torn Achilles tendon and will be out for six-plus months. That’s a devastating blow for the 49ers, who will hope to see wideout Ricky Pearsall back in action. Pearsall has missed three of San Francisco’s past four games.
  • Saturday’s game has a projected total of 45.5 points. Both regular-season matchups between the Seahawks and Niners hit the under, with just 46 combined points being scored.

-> At NorthStar Bets: Full betting markets for the NFL playoffs

Sunday’s NFL divisional round matchups

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots: Sunday, Jan. 18 (3:00 p.m ET)

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  • New England’s defence was superb in their 16-3 wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers, holding L.A. to a measly 3.5 yards per play. The Chargers also went a combined 2-for-13 on third and fourth down while taking six sacks.
  • Houston’s No. 1 defence was even better against Pittsburgh. The Steelers had just 175 total yards and went 2-for-13 on third down with a pick-six and a fumble-six.
  • C.J. Stroud got bailed out by that unit, after throwing an interception and losing two fumbles in an ugly game.
  • Though the Pats’ offence had some bumps in the road, they unlocked something with Drake Maye as a runner. He scampered for a season-high 66 yards on 10 carries while also throwing for 268 yards and one TD.
  • New England is now 8-3-1 ATS as a favourite. Houston has won 10 straight and is 4-3 ATS as an underdog.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on the NFL divisional round now!

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears: Sunday, Jan. 18 (6:30 p.m. ET)

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  • Well, the Bears did it again, erasing a fourth-quarter deficit for a seventh time this season to keep their season alive. Twice in the past month, they’ve overcome double-digit margins in the fourth against the Packers.
  • If you’re buying into Chicago’s highly unlikely surge, you can do so while banking some points on Sunday. The Bears, who have a 7-1-1 ATS record in their past eight, are home underdogs against a Rams team that has looked a bit shaky on the road.
  • Los Angeles needed a last-minute touchdown to push past the Carolina Panthers in the wild-card round — despite laying 10.5 points. In their past five road games, the Rams are 2-3 ATS and SU.

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Lakers vs. Kings SGP predictions Jan. 12: Bet on Luka Doncic to lead rested L.A. to victory

Lakers vs. Kings SGP

After a stunning upset win last night, the Sacramento Kings are back at it on Monday against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: Tonight marks the seventh time in nine games in which the Kings are underdogs by at least 7.5 points. The Lakers have won and covered in six straight against the Kings since the start of the 2024-25 season.

Check out my Lakers vs. Kings SGP predictions for Jan. 12, featuring prop picks on Luka Doncic and Russell Westbrook.

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Lakers vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Lakers -6.5 | Doncic 8+ assists | Westbrook 2+ threes (+310)

Lakers -6.5 (-190): I just shredded the Kings yesterday for how atrocious they’d been during a seven-game losing streak. Naturally, they turned around and beat the Rockets at home as 14.5-point underdogs.

I refuse to be reactionary off that one game, though, and I’ll take a rested Lakers squad on a trimmed-down spread tonight.

  • Prior to Sunday’s surprise win, Sacramento had lost seven in a row (1-6 ATS) with an average point differential of -22.9 points.
  • Six of the seven losses during that skid came by 14+ points.

-> Build your Lakers vs. Kings SGP at NorthStar Bets

Los Angeles is coming off back-to-back days off and has covered a -6.5 spread in both prior meetings with Sacramento this season.

These teams last met on Dec. 28, and the rest situation was the same: two days off for L.A., no rest for Sacramento.

The Lakers won that game by 24 points.

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NBA SGP legs

Doncic 8+ assists (-230): The juice indicates that this is a pretty safe play, and the numbers back it up.

  • Doncic has cashed this bet in six straight games, as well as 19 of 29 on the season.
  • He’s averaging 8.8 APG despite also pacing the league in scoring (33.3 PPG).

Doncic’s backcourt buddy, Austin Reaves, has missed extended time this year. And Reaves’ absence has forced Doncic to be a bit more active as a passer than he might otherwise be.

-> Back Lakers’ superstar Luka Doncic vs. Kings

Without Reaves this year, Doncic’s scoring average is a bit down (30.8 PPG), and he’s hit this assists milestone in nine of 12 games.

Westbrook 2+ threes (-136): No one would accuse Westbrook of being an efficient scorer, but he’s still getting enough shots up for this line to be enticing.

Westbrook’s overall shot volume is nowhere near what it was back in the mid-2010s when he was competing for scoring titles. But he’s been surprisingly active from 3-point land.

On the season, the 37-year-old is putting up 5.5 attempted 3s per night — the third-highest mark of his career.

He’s 20-19 vs. this prop and has hit 5-of-11 threes across a pair of matchups vs. the Lakers.

Westbrook is on a 3-point shooting binge right now, averaging 7.2 attempts over his past 11 games.

He’s 6-5 vs. this milestone in that span and made at least one triple in each of those games. I think this is a decent time to buy in.

Lakers vs. Kings SGP made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 12, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 12: Michael Porter Jr. should shine for Nets, fade Miles Bridges vs. Clippers

NBA prop picks Jan. 12

It’s been a banner year for Michael Porter Jr., who draws my attention in the NBA prop market for Monday night.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Porter was given the keys to the Brooklyn Nets’ offence after being traded there this offseason, and he’s been excellent all year. His points prop is at a very playable line tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 12, featuring Payton Pritchard and Miles Bridges.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 12

Best bet: Porter over 25.5 points (-117)

If the Nets truly want to embrace a tank this season, they’ll probably want to get rid of Porter.

The ex-Nugget is doing his part and then some for the 11-win Nets, posting career-high averages in points (25.9), rebounds (7.4) and assists (3.4).

It’s really been an across-the-board improvement for Porter. He’s averaging about six more field goal attempts, three-and-a-half more 3s and two-and-a-half more free throws than during his Denver tenure.

-> Bet on MPJ tonight in Nets vs. Mavericks!

The 27-year-old rested last night, which is typical for him to do on one end of a back-to-back. He should be good to go on Monday, and this number looks like a smash to me.

  • In 13 games since Dec. 1, Porter is averaging 27.8 PPG. He’s 10-3 vs. this points prop in that span.
  • From December onward, Porter has been dominant beyond the arc, shooting 43.3% on a hearty 10.3 attempts per game.

MPJ’s Nets are visiting the Mavericks, who are missing a ton of size with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively out. P.J. Washington is doubtful, too.

On Dec. 12, Porter went 6-for-10 from deep in Dallas as part of a 34-point performance.

Key stat: Porter has gone over 25.5 points in five of his past six games.

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Best NBA picks

Pritchard under 6.5 assists (+100): I’m struggling to understand why this line is so high, but I’ll gladly take the under at even money.

  • Pritchard is averaging 5.2 assists, and this under is 29-9 on the season.
  • He hit the under in both matchups vs. the Indiana Pacers last month, posting exactly five assists apiece in those games.

-> Full betting markets for Monday’s NBA slate

The Pacers are arguably the worst team in the NBA this season, but they haven’t been total pushovers on defence. Indiana ranks 20th in defensive rating and is allowing the seventh-fewest assists per game.

With Jaylen Brown listed as doubtful for the Boston Celtics, I’d expect Pritchard to be tasked with a heightened role as a scorer, not as a facilitator.

NBA player prop predictions

Bridges under 18.5 points (-105): The Charlotte Hornets have four players who average between 19.0 and 20.0 points, and sometimes it’s difficult to predict who’s going to get buckets on any given night.

Bridges looks like a reasonable fade candidate tonight in Los Angeles, where he’ll face a Clippers squad that allows the third-fewest points to opposing power forwards (per Fantasy Pros).

Yes, Bridges did sneak over this line with a 19-point effort when he faced the Clips at home in November, but that came with an uncharacteristically high volume of free throws. He shot 9-for-10 at the line.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Since the start of December, Bridges has averaged just 3.1 free throw attempts per game. This under is 11-7 in that span, with Bridges putting up 16.8 PPG.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 12, 2026.

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Rockets vs. Kings SGP predictions Jan. 11: Fade Russell Westbrook as Houston looks to bounce back

Rockets vs. Kings SGP

In the final NBA game of the night, the Houston Rockets look to bounce back against the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: Houston is in a bit of a rough patch, but no one is as down as Sacramento right now. My +380 same-game parlay is calling for a dominant win by the Rockets, along with a fade of one of the Kings’ top players.

Check out my Rockets vs. Kings SGP predictions for Jan. 11, featuring Russell Westbrook and Maxime Raynaud.

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Rockets vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Rockets -9.5 | Raynaud over 10.5 points | Westbrook under 15.5 points (+380)

Rockets -9.5 (-200): Houston kicked off this road trip with back-to-back losses in Portland as a favourite, which isn’t great. That marks three straight road games in which the Rockets have lost outright as favourites.

But this a “hold my beer” moment for the Kings, whose recent slide is unparalleled.

  • Sacramento is on a seven-game losing streak (1-6 ATS) in which its average point differential is -22.9 points.
  • Six of the seven losses have come by 14+ points.

-> Build your Rockets vs. Kings SGP at NorthStar Bets

Sacramento won’t have Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis or Dennis Schroder. And the Kings’ healthy players have been ice cold on offence (dead-last in effective FG% in their past 15 games).

Houston has had some recent stumbles, but this is still a playoff-calibre team with guys like Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr.

This should be a get-right game for the Rockets before they head back home.

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NBA SGP legs

Raynaud over 10.5 points (-103): On Dec. 3, the Rockets dismantled the Kings, 121-95. Raynaud was one of the very few bright spots for Sacramento.

The rookie big man scored 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting off the bench. He’s been in the Kings’ starting lineup ever since.

From that game onward, Raynaud has averaged 13.6 PPG on 58.7% shooting. He’s 12-5 vs. this prop, cashing it in both matchups vs. Houston.

-> Back Houston rookie Maxime Raynaud vs. Rockets

At 7-foot-1, Raynaud will be the tallest player on the court Sunday. And with Alperen Sengun (ankle) questionable to play, he could really capitalize on a mismatch in the paint.

Westbrook under 15.5 points (-167): Westbrook is in a shooting slump that completely overlaps with the Kings’ recent woes. I’m going to ride that wave.

The 18-year veteran is averaging 13.9 PPG over his past seven games, shooting an unsightly 37.0% from the field in that span. He’s gone under this prop in five of seven games.

Houston has the fifth-ranked defensive rating in the NBA (112.2) and plays at the third-slowest pace. Teams really don’t score much against the Rockets.

At 14.5 PPG for the season, Westbrook is going under this point total more often than not. The under is 22-16 this season.

Rockets vs. Kings SGP made at 1:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 11, 2026.

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Texans vs. Steelers wild-card prop picks: Fade Stroud in Pittsburgh, look for Gainwell to stay involved

Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks

NFL wild-card weekend wraps up with a special edition of Monday Night Football, featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs with a Week 18 win and will now serve as a home underdog vs. Houston. C.J. Stroud is 0-2 in road playoff games and has markedly worse numbers in outdoor conditions.

Check out my Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks for Jan. 12, featuring prop bets on Stroud and Kenneth Gainwell.

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Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks

Best Bet: Stroud under 230.5 passing yards (-118)

This could be my last chance this season to bet against Stroud in an outdoor road game. I don’t want to miss out.

Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, has now logged three full NFL seasons. His home/road splits are a sight to behold:

  • Home (23 games): 258.9 pass yards/game, 101.2 passer rating, 37 TDs, 11 INTs
  • Road (23 games): 214.0 pass yards/game, 85.5 passer rating, 25 TDs, 14 INTs

And let’s not forget about his splits when playing under a retractable roof compared to a standard outdoor venue:

  • Retractable roof (28 games): 258.4 pass yards/game, 100.3 passer rating, 42 TDs, 13 INTs
  • Outdoors (15 games): 199.6 pass yards/game, 83.9 passer rating, 17 TDs, 7 INTs

-> Fade Stroud in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football

With a total set at just 38 points, Monday’s matchup between the Texans and Steelers is expected to be a defence-first rock fight.

Houston’s defence is arguably the best in the NFL, so it’s unlikely that Stroud will need to put up huge numbers to keep his squad in the fight. The weather in Pittsburgh is expected to be a bit windy with temperatures below freezing.

It won’t be treacherous at Acrisure Stadium, but Stroud has proven many times over that he’s not as comfortable in outdoor road venues.

The Steelers’ pass defence was at its best over the latter half of the season and should show up in this wild-card battle.

Key stat: From Week 9 onward, the Steelers allowed just 213.3 net passing yards per game.

MNF prop prediction

Gainwell over 30.5 receiving yards (-118): There were 10 NFLers with 12.0 or more sacks this season, and two of them are on the Texans’ defensive front.

That’s a terrifying fact for the largely immobile Aaron Rodgers, who I’m sure wants to avoid a face-to-face meeting with Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson at all costs.

With DK Metcalf back in the mix after a two-game suspension, Pittsburgh’s offence has a true field-stretcher to keep Houston’s ferocious defence honest. That should open things up underneath for Gainwell, who’s been feasting in recent weeks.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Monday Night Football!

Over his past eight games, Gainwell is averaging 45.4 yards on 5.5 catches per game. He has 25+ yards in all but one of those matchups.

The Texans’ defence ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed and No. 4 in net pass yards per attempt. I think we’ll see a lot of Rodgers-to-Gainwell checkdowns, which have become the norm in Pittsburgh.

Texans vs. Steelers wild-card prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET Jan. 11, 2026.

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Texans vs. Steelers wild-card prop picks: Fade Stroud in Pittsburgh, look for Gainwell to stay involved

Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks

NFL wild-card weekend wraps up with a special edition of Monday Night Football, featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs with a Week 18 win and will now serve as a home underdog vs. Houston. C.J. Stroud is 0-2 in road playoff games and has markedly worse numbers in outdoor conditions.

Check out my Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks for Jan. 12, featuring prop bets on Stroud and Kenneth Gainwell.

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Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks

Best Bet: Stroud under 222.5 passing yards (-113)

This could be my last chance this season to bet against Stroud in an outdoor road game. I don’t want to miss out.

Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, has now logged three full NFL seasons. His home/road splits are a sight to behold:

  • Home (23 games): 258.9 pass yards/game, 101.2 passer rating, 37 TDs, 11 INTs
  • Road (23 games): 214.0 pass yards/game, 85.5 passer rating, 25 TDs, 14 INTs

And let’s not forget about his splits when playing under a retractable roof compared to a standard outdoor venue:

  • Retractable roof (28 games): 258.4 pass yards/game, 100.3 passer rating, 42 TDs, 13 INTs
  • Outdoors (15 games): 199.6 pass yards/game, 83.9 passer rating, 17 TDs, 7 INTs

-> Fade Stroud in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football

With a total set at just 38 points, Monday’s matchup between the Texans and Steelers is expected to be a defence-first rock fight.

Houston’s defence is arguably the best in the NFL, so it’s unlikely that Stroud will need to put up huge numbers to keep his squad in the fight. The weather in Pittsburgh is expected to be a bit windy with temperatures below freezing.

It won’t be treacherous at Acrisure Stadium, but Stroud has proven many times over that he’s not as comfortable in outdoor road venues.

The Steelers’ pass defence was at its best over the latter half of the season and should show up in this wild-card battle.

Key stat: From Week 9 onward, the Steelers allowed just 213.3 net passing yards per game.

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MNF prop prediction

Gainwell over 31.5 receiving yards (-117): There were 10 NFLers with 12.0 or more sacks this season, and two of them are on the Texans’ defensive front.

That’s a terrifying fact for the largely immobile Aaron Rodgers, who I’m sure wants to avoid a face-to-face meeting with Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson at all costs.

With DK Metcalf back in the mix after a two-game suspension, Pittsburgh’s offence has a true field-stretcher to keep Houston’s ferocious defence honest. That should open things up underneath for Gainwell, who’s been feasting in recent weeks.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Monday Night Football!

Over his past eight games, Gainwell is averaging 45.4 yards on 5.5 catches per game. He has 25+ yards in all but one of those matchups.

The Texans’ defence ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed and No. 4 in net pass yards per attempt. I think we’ll see a lot of Rodgers-to-Gainwell checkdowns, which have become the norm in Pittsburgh.

Texans vs. Steelers wild-card prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET Jan. 11, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 11: Bet on CJ McCollum in Atlanta Hawks debut

NBA prop picks Jan. 11

CJ McCollum is set to make his Atlanta Hawks debut on Sunday night, and I’ve got my eye on him in the prop market.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: McCollum’s Hawks are on the road to face the Golden State Warriors, and the over on his assists prop should be in play. Elsewhere, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Alex Sarr are a pair of big men worth backing, too.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 11.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 11

Best bet: McCollum over 2.5 assists (-150)

With Trae Young out of the picture, the Hawks don’t have a bona fide point guard in their rotation.

Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are both capable of running things, but I expect McCollum to join a by-committee approach in Atlanta.

  • Though he was listed as a shooting guard for the Washington Wizards before the trade, McCollum is coming off three-and-a-half seasons running point in New Orleans.
  • He’s averaging 3.6 assists this season and 4.8 APG since the start of the 2021-22 campaign.

Without having seen McCollum suit up for Atlanta before, it’s impossible to know exactly how they’ll deploy him. But I think this is a line he’ll clear on most nights for his new team, and I’m not sure how long the line will stick around.

-> Bet on McCollum in his Atlanta Hawks debut!

McCollum’s presence should take pressure off Johnson, who leads the Hawks in points, rebounds and assists.

I just don’t see a world in which McCollum fades below 2.5 assists per night on a team without an established point guard.

McCollum might come off the bench for Atlanta. That’s not necessarily a worse outcome for this prop, though, as it would clear the way for him to not compete with Daniels for assists.

McCollum is 15-2 vs. this prop since the start of December, and he’s 28-7 against it on the season. Get in while you can, I say.

Key stat: Since the start of the 2023-24 season, McCollum is 4-0 vs. this assists prop when facing the Golden State Warriors (tonight’s opponents).

Best NBA picks

Sarr 2+ blocks (120): Victor Wembanyama is averaging an NBA-high 2.9 blocks per game, but he’s missed enough action to not currently qualify as the leader.

That leaves Sarr (2.3 BPG) at the top of the heap.

And with that number in mind, this is a solid price to back Washington’s 7-footer to swat a couple of shots on Sunday.

  • Sarr is 7-3 vs. this prop in his past 10 games, averaging 3.0 BPG in that span.
  • On the season, he has 2+ blocks in 19 of 28 games.
  • Sarr will face the Phoenix Suns tonight, and he tallied two blocks in a matchup against them on Dec. 29.

-> Full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate

Being among the tallest players on the court in every game helps Sarr block shots, but he deserves credit for his effort level, too.

The Frenchman contests 10.4 shots per game, according to NBA.com, which is the fifth-most in the league.

NBA player prop predictions

Giannis over 29.5 points (-110): It’s been just under two weeks since Nikola Jokic went down with an injury, and the Denver Nuggets are missing him dearly.

In six games sans-Jokic, the Nuggets are 3-3 with the league’s 10th-worst net rating (-5.3). Before that, the Nuggets were 22-10 with a +7.2 net rating.

Jokic is out again, along with fellow centre Jonas Valanciunas. Giannis should be able to attack the Nuggets in the paint with ease.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Giannis is 14-10 vs. this prop on the season, cashing it in four of his past five games. Even if there was more resistance coming from Denver’s frontcourt, it might not matter.

In his past five matchups against the Nuggets, Giannis has averaged 31.4 PPG.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 11, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 11: Bet on CJ McCollum in Atlanta Hawks debut

NBA prop picks Jan. 11

CJ McCollum is set to make his Atlanta Hawks debut on Sunday night, and I’ve got my eye on him in the prop market.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: McCollum’s Hawks are on the road to face the Golden State Warriors, and the over on his assists prop should be in play. Elsewhere, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Alex Sarr are a pair of big men worth backing, too.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 11.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 11

Best bet: McCollum over 2.5 assists (-148)

With Trae Young out of the picture, the Hawks don’t have a bona fide point guard in their rotation.

Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are both capable of running things, but I expect McCollum to join a by-committee approach in Atlanta.

  • Though he was listed as a shooting guard for the Washington Wizards before the trade, McCollum is coming off three-and-a-half seasons running point in New Orleans.
  • He’s averaging 3.6 assists this season and 4.8 APG since the start of the 2021-22 campaign.

Without having seen McCollum suit up for Atlanta before, it’s impossible to know exactly how they’ll deploy him. But I think this is a line he’ll clear on most nights for his new team, and I’m not sure how long the line will stick around.

-> Bet on McCollum in his Atlanta Hawks debut!

McCollum’s presence should take pressure off Johnson, who leads the Hawks in points, rebounds and assists.

I just don’t see a world in which McCollum fades below 2.5 assists per night on a team without an established point guard.

McCollum might come off the bench for Atlanta. That’s not necessarily a worse outcome for this prop, though, as it would clear the way for him to not compete with Daniels for assists.

McCollum is 15-2 vs. this prop since the start of December, and he’s 28-7 against it on the season. Get in while you can, I say.

Key stat: Since the start of the 2023-24 season, McCollum is 4-0 vs. this assists prop when facing the Golden State Warriors (tonight’s opponents).

Embed: #122729

Best NBA picks

Sarr 2+ blocks (137): Victor Wembanyama is averaging an NBA-high 2.9 blocks per game, but he’s missed enough action to not currently qualify as the leader.

That leaves Sarr (2.3 BPG) at the top of the heap.

And with that number in mind, this is a solid price to back Washington’s 7-footer to swat a couple of shots on Sunday.

  • Sarr is 7-3 vs. this prop in his past 10 games, averaging 3.0 BPG in that span.
  • On the season, he has 2+ blocks in 19 of 28 games.
  • Sarr will face the Phoenix Suns tonight, and he tallied two blocks in a matchup against them on Dec. 29.

-> Full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate

Being among the tallest players on the court in every game helps Sarr block shots, but he deserves credit for his effort level, too.

The Frenchman contests 10.4 shots per game, according to NBA.com, which is the fifth-most in the league.

NBA player prop predictions

Giannis over 29.5 points (-105): It’s been just under two weeks since Nikola Jokic went down with an injury, and the Denver Nuggets are missing him dearly.

In six games sans-Jokic, the Nuggets are 3-3 with the league’s 10th-worst net rating (-5.3). Before that, the Nuggets were 22-10 with a +7.2 net rating.

Jokic is out again, along with fellow centre Jonas Valanciunas. Giannis should be able to attack the Nuggets in the paint with ease.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Giannis is 14-10 vs. this prop on the season, cashing it in four of his past five games. Even if there was more resistance coming from Denver’s frontcourt, it might not matter.

In his past five matchups against the Nuggets, Giannis has averaged 31.4 PPG.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 11, 2026.

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Chargers vs. Patriots wild-card game SGP picks: Playoff prop predictions on Drake Maye, Keenan Allen

Chargers vs. Patriots picks

In a wild-card edition of Sunday Night Football, the New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium.

The pregame narrative: New England stacked 14 wins this year and is laying 3.5 points at home. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs after quick exits in two of the previous three postseasons.

Check out my Chargers vs. Patriots picks, featuring predictions on Drake Maye and Keenan Allen in a +310 SGP.

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Chargers vs. Patriots picks

SGP: Patriots -2.5 | Maye 250+ pass/rush yards | Allen 30+ rec. yards (+310)

Patriots -2.5 (-152): The main criticism of the Patriots’ breakout season was that they faced a supremely weak schedule. And that’s a pretty fair point.

But are we just going to gloss over the fact that they dominated that schedule? I certainly won’t.

  • New England had a +170 point differential, which was 32 points better than anyone else in the AFC (and 142 points ahead of L.A.).
  • The Pats went 7-3-1 ATS as favourites and posted an NFL-high +14.8 average point differential in those games.
  • They covered a -2.5 spread in 10 of their final 12 games. The outliers were a one-point win over Atlanta and a four-point loss to Buffalo (after building a 21-0 lead).

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Sunday night’s weather shouldn’t be much of a factor, but I still like the idea of fading the Chargers in an outdoor game that’s a long way from home. L.A. is 3-5-0 ATS on the road this season.

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Chargers vs. Patriots prop prediction

Maye 250+ passing/rushing yards (-190): Matthew Stafford is probably going to win NFL MVP, but Maye has a stellar case of his own.

Maye led the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, completion percentage over expectation, EPA per play and more.

He didn’t put up the gaudiest overall numbers, but his efficiency and sharp decision-making led to 258.5 passing yards per game.

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Maye isn’t a running quarterback, per se, but his mobility is an asset when he chooses to take off. He rushed for more than 20 yards in five of his final six games this season.

For a guy who averaged 284.9 passing/rushing yards on the season and went 14-3 vs. this line, I think this is a great add to the parlay.

SGP prediction: Keenan Allen pick

Allen 30+ receiving yards (-141): Allen’s age-33 season was his quietest, but he’s still a good bet to cash this yardage milestone most of the time. I’ll gladly buy in at this price.

  • The 13-year vet played all 17 games this season and averaged 45.7 yards. He went 13-4 vs. this prop.
  • Allen led the Chargers in total targets (122) and receptions per game (4.8).

-> Bet on Maye and Allen on SNF

Los Angeles didn’t have a true alpha receiver this year, evidenced by the fact that four pass-catchers finished between 650 and 800 yards.

When Herbert spreads the love, Allen is bound to get his share.

Chargers vs. Patriots picks made at 12:25 p.m. on Jan. 9, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 9: Fade Jalen Williams at plus money, look for Collin Gillespie to stay hot

NBA prop picks Jan. 9

Collin Gillespie has been on a shooting spree lately for the Phoenix Suns, and he’s one of my top targets for Friday’s NBA prop market.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Another late-night performer I’m eyeing is Deni Avdija, who’s coming off his best scoring output of the season. Avdija will face the Houston Rockets for the second time in three nights.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 9, featuring a prediction on Jalen Williams.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 9

Best bet: Avdija over 26.5 points (-109)

Avdija just torched the Rockets at home two nights ago, dropping a season-high 41 points on 13-of-24 shooting. He also sank 13 of his 15 free throws.

After the game, Houston’s Tari Eason was asked what made Avdija so tough to defend. His pointed, one-word answer: “Zebras.”

Aside from Luka Doncic, no one has attempted more free throws on a per-game basis this year than Avdija (9.9), and he gets a particularly favourable whistle at Moda Center.

  • Home: 11.0 FTA, 28.1 PPG
  • Road: 9.0 FTA, 24.7 PPG

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Avdija and the Blazers host the Rockets again tonight. It’s a tough matchup, but he did just pass it with flying colours on Wednesday.

Over his past 20 games, Avdija has really leaned in on drawing fouls. In that span, he’s up to 11.8 free throws per game, which has contributed to a 27.5 PPG scoring average.

Jrue Holiday’s injury thrust Avdija into the main facilitating role for Portland, but he’s still the top scorer, too.

Avdija knows how to get to the bucket — or at least to the free throw line — and I expect him to attack Houston again tonight.

Key stat: Avdija has 19+ field goal attempts and 10+ free throw attempts in all four games this month. He’s 4-0 vs. this points prop in those matchups.

Best NBA picks

Gillespie over 2.5 threes (136): Gillespie had a one-year crossover with the Nova Knicks in college, and I like his chances of going toe-to-toe with them tonight.

The third-year point guard out of Villanova has been exceptional from deep this season, shooting 41.9% on 7.0 attempts.

He only averaged 2.7 attempted 3s last year, but the huge jump in volume didn’t affect his efficiency.

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Gillespie is 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine games, connecting for 3.6 threes per night. There’s some extra juice with this one, but it’s well worth it based on how he’s shooting right now.

Overall, Gillespie is 22-15 vs. this prop.

NBA player prop predictions

Williams under 6.5 assists (+102): The Oklahoma City Thunder are on a bumpy road right now, going 7-6 in their past 13 games. The defending champs just needed overtime to beat the Utah Jazz … at home.

If you’re looking to fade OKC, this is my favourite way to do it tonight. Williams sits at 5.5 APG on the season and has gone under this prop line in 12 of 19 games.

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That includes a two-assist effort against the Memphis Grizzlies, who he’ll face tonight.

Williams is averaging just 8.8 potential assists per game, which denotes all passes that lead directly to a shot. That’s not enough opportunities for me to want the over here.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 9, 2026.

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