Jackson Kerbl

Maple Leafs props vs. Hurricanes Jan. 9: Bet on Tavares, fade Rielly and Jarvis on Thursday night

Maple Leafs props

Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference square off on Thursday as the Carolina Hurricanes host the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The pregame narrative: John Tavares has had success against Carolina in ample experience. I’m backing him to score a point while fading Seth Jarvis and Morgan Rielly in points and shots props, respectively.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Hurricanes for Jan. 9.

Maple Leafs props vs. Hurricanes

Embed: #105821

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Best bet: Tavares to score 1+ points (-130)

This isn’t the ideal matchup for offensive output on either side.

TeamGoals allowed/gamePenalty kill %
Maple Leafs2.74 (9th)83.2% (7th)
Hurricanes2.80 (11th)84.9% (1st)

The last time these teams met, back in March, Carolina earned a 2-1 victory in insipid fashion.

Tavares has been on quite the run in his contract year with Toronto. He’s on a point-per-game pace, with 17 points in his last 12 games.

The 34-year-old plays on a line with two sharpshooters, William Nylander and Bobby McMann, who’ve combined for 35 goals this season.

Tavares is also featured on the No. 1 power play, which has cashed in on more than 20.0% of its chances.

Key stat: In 48 career games versus Carolina, Tavares has 29 goals and 27 assists.

Quick picks

Rielly under 1.5 shots (-117): Rielly has hit a bit of a lull offensively for the Buds.

  • Over his past 16 games, Rielly has just 21 shots and a 4.8% shooting percentage.
  • Compare that to his first 16 games of the season, when Rielly put up 29 shots with a 13.8% shooting percentage.

Rielly has cashed this bet in eight of the last 11 games, with just 12 shots total over that stretch.

This is a great spot for that trend to continue. Carolina allows the second-fewest shots in the NHL (25.2/game).

Jarvis under 0.5 points (+132): Jarvis is currently on a hot streak, but I believe that’ll come to an end tonight.

The fourth-year winger has never fared well against Toronto in his young career — posting just two points in seven games with a -4 rating.

The Leafs come into Raleigh on a five-game heater in which they’ve allowed more than two goals just once (a 6-4 win against Boston on Jan. 4).

Jarvis, known for his offence, isn’t the strongest defensive player. Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour might be more inclined to give his third or fourth-line guys more ice time to shut down the Leafs’ uber-talented forwards.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 01/09/2025.

Ohio State vs. Texas Cotton Bowl SGP predictions: Bet on Buckeyes to win CFP semifinal

Ohio State vs. Texas predictions

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns square off in the second semifinal of the College Football Playoff on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Ohio State is the odds-on favourite to win the national championship, and I’m backing them to get one step closer against Texas. I also have plays on star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Matthew Golden in this +295 Cotton Bowl SGP.

Check out my Ohio State vs. Texas same-game parlay predictions for the semifinal CFP matchup on Jan. 10.

Ohio State vs. Texas predictions

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Embed: #105699

Parlay: Ohio State moneyline + Golden over 59.5 receiving yards + Smith over 74.5 receiving yards (+295)

Ohio State moneyline (-245): It’s clear that Ohio State is the class of college football, and has been since its shocking 13-10 defeat to the Michigan Wolverines on Nov. 30.

The page has been turned, and they have been dominating strong competition since then, outscoring No. 7 Tennessee and No. 1 Oregon by a combined 45 points in the CFP.

The Buckeyes have game-changers on both sides of the ball and the numbers back it up.

  • No. 11 in scoring offence
  • No. 1 in scoring defence
  • No. 1 in total defence

This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Longhorns will get the home crowd bump but that’s not steering me away from, in all aspects, the superior team.

Other parlay picks

Golden over 59.5 receiving yards (-134): Matthew Golden had himself a day against Arizona State last week.

He had seven catches for 149 yards and a touchdown in the double-overtime thriller, ending the Sun Devils season.

The Houston Cougar transfer has cleared this mark in six of his last nine games after a slow start to the 2024 season. He’s carved out a very respectable 936 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 16.7 yards per reception.

This is Golden’s biggest game of his young career, and the Longhorns will need him to shine if they have National Championship aspirations in mind.

If the Buckeyes jump out to an early lead, Golden should see increased looks from Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Smith over 74.5 receiving yards (-190): Jeremiah Smith might be the most electric player in college football, and we still get two more years of him at Ohio State.

The 6-foot-3, 215-pound freshman had 1,224 yards and 14 touchdowns on the year. Both of which led the Big Ten Conference.

Smith has gone over 100 receiving yards three times in the last five games and five times this season. He’s proven to be quarterback Will Howard’s No. 1 option when a big play is needed.

The star wide receiver caught seven passes for 187 yards last week, and this one may have been the most impressive.

Barring an Ohio State blowout, Smith should be a large part of the Buckeye’s offensive plan.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 01/08/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 8: Back Ovechkin, fade MacKinnon and Bedard on Wednesday night

NHL prop picks

There are just four games on Wednesday’s NHL slate, but I have three props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: The Chicago Blackhawks have been an offensive mess this season. I’m fading Connor Bedard to find the scoresheet and Nathan MacKinnon’s shot prop. Elsewhere, I’m picking Alex Ovechkin to score a goal against the Vancouver Canucks.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 8.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Ovechkin to score 1+ goal (+125)

It’s been wonderful to have The Great 8 back on the ice after missing 16 games with a fractured fibula he sustained in November.

Everyone knows he’s chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record, but I don’t think people realized how quickly it might come after last year’s lack of production.

  • Last season: 31 goals in 79 games (0.39 goals/gm)
  • This season: 19 goals in 24 games (0.79 goals/gm)

Since returning from injury, Ovi has four goals in six games and hasn’t been shy shooting, with 30 shots on goal over that stretch.

Ovechkin’s turnaround couldn’t come at a more opportune time as he trails Gretzky by just 22 goals.

I like him to get at least one goal closer in a plus matchup tonight against the Canucks.

  • Vancouver is 25th in goals allowed/game (3.21)
  • 15th in penalty kill percentage (80.2%)
  • 25th in penalty minutes/game (9.5)

The Canucks also rank 24th in high-danger save percentage (78.8%), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Meanwhile, the Capitals haven’t struggled to find the back of the net, even in Ovechkin’s absence. Washington scores the most goals/game in the NHL (3.7) and owns a top-10 power play (23.9%).

Key stat: Ovechkin has five goals in his last three games against Vancouver.

Quick picks

Bedard under 0.5 points (+115): It really is a shame the way Bedard is positioned early in his career.

A potential once-in-a-generation talent who has little possibility of thriving with the team he’s playing on. Chicago sits in the basement in nearly every major offensive category.

  • T30th in goals (2.53)
  • 29th in shots (25.6)
  • 24th in shooting percentage (9.9%)
  • 31st in faceoff percentage (43.9%)

The former first-overall selection has shown promise of late. He’s currently holding a seven-game point streak, however, I have reason to believe that ends tonight.

After a sluggish start, Colorado has found its stride in the past two months, winning 18 of 26 contests. The main difference maker is its goaltending.

Since Dec. 14, the Avalanche have only allowed more than two goals in a game once. Mackenzie Blackwood has been their knight in shining armour since coming over from the San Jose Sharks, posting a 7-1-1 record with a 1.69 GAA.

MacKinnon under 3.5 shots (+125): It’s no secret Mackinnon’s goal production has dipped severely after his 51-goal output last season.

The Halifax native has just 14 goals this year in 41 games (0.34 goals/game). This is the lowest average since the 2016-17 season (0.19 goals/game).

He leads the league in points (66) and assists (52), and Colorado is winning, so I don’t think finding the back of the net is high on his priority list.

MacKinnon has cashed this wager in six of his last eight games.

I don’t anticipate a close game in this one so there shouldn’t be any sense of desperation for MacKinnon or the Avalanche to be pressing for pucks on net.

Picks made at 12:16 p.m. ET on 01/08/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 8: Back Ovechkin, fade MacKinnon and Bedard on Wednesday night

NHL prop picks

There are just four games on Wednesday’s NHL slate, but I have three props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: The Chicago Blackhawks have been an offensive mess this season. I’m fading Connor Bedard to find the scoresheet and Nathan MacKinnon’s shot prop. Elsewhere, I’m picking Alex Ovechkin to score a goal against the Vancouver Canucks.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 8.

NHL prop picks

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Embed: #105612

Best bet: Ovechkin to score 1+ goal (+114)

It’s been wonderful to have The Great 8 back on the ice after missing 16 games with a fractured fibula he sustained in November.

Everyone knows he’s chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record, but I don’t think people realized how quickly it might come after last year’s lack of production.

  • Last season: 31 goals in 79 games (0.39 goals/gm)
  • This season: 19 goals in 24 games (0.79 goals/gm)

Since returning from injury, Ovi has four goals in six games and hasn’t been shy shooting, with 30 shots on goal over that stretch.

Ovechkin’s turnaround couldn’t come at a more opportune time as he trails Gretzky by just 22 goals.

I like him to get at least one goal closer in a plus matchup tonight against the Canucks.

  • Vancouver is 25th in goals allowed/game (3.21)
  • 15th in penalty kill percentage (80.2%)
  • 25th in penalty minutes/game (9.5)

The Canucks also rank 24th in high-danger save percentage (78.8%), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Meanwhile, the Capitals haven’t struggled to find the back of the net, even in Ovechkin’s absence. Washington scores the most goals/game in the NHL (3.7) and owns a top-10 power play (23.9%).

Key stat: Ovechkin has five goals in his last three games against Vancouver.

Quick picks

Bedard under 0.5 points (+133): It really is a shame the way Bedard is positioned early in his career.

A potential once-in-a-generation talent who has little possibility of thriving with the team he’s playing on. Chicago sits in the basement in nearly every major offensive category.

  • T30th in goals (2.53)
  • 29th in shots (25.6)
  • 24th in shooting percentage (9.9%)
  • 31st in faceoff percentage (43.9%)

The former first-overall selection has shown promise of late. He’s currently holding a seven-game point streak, however, I have reason to believe that ends tonight.

After a sluggish start, Colorado has found its stride in the past two months, winning 18 of 26 contests. The main difference maker is its goaltending.

Since Dec. 14, the Avalanche have only allowed more than two goals in a game once. Mackenzie Blackwood has been their knight in shining armour since coming over from the San Jose Sharks, posting a 7-1-1 record with a 1.69 GAA.

MacKinnon under 3.5 shots (+110): It’s no secret Mackinnon’s goal production has dipped severely after his 51-goal output last season.

The Halifax native has just 14 goals this year in 41 games (0.34 goals/game). This is the lowest average since the 2016-17 season (0.19 goals/game).

He leads the league in points (66) and assists (52), and Colorado is winning, so I don’t think finding the back of the net is high on his priority list.

MacKinnon has cashed this wager in six of his last eight games.

I don’t anticipate a close game in this one so there shouldn’t be any sense of desperation for MacKinnon or the Avalanche to be pressing for pucks on net.

Picks made at 11:29 a.m. ET on 01/08/2025.

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Panthers vs. Avalanche picks and odds Jan. 6: Bet on Florida to win and the over

Panthers vs. Avalanche picks

The Colorado Avalanche host the Florida Panthers in a primetime Monday night matchup.

The pregame narrative: Two teams with championship aspirations square off, and I’m backing the defending champs to win as road underdogs, along with the over.

Check out my Panthers vs. Avalanche picks for Jan. 6.

Panthers vs. Avalanche picks

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Best bet: Over 6.5 goals (+100)

I’m anticipating a good old fashioned barn-burner tonight in Denver.

Both squads have raised the Stanley Cup in the past three years. Unsurprisingly, they both have high-powered offences and superstars all over the ice.

One aspect that hasn’t been up to par has been the goaltending.

Sergei Bobrovsky is the highest-paid goalie in the NHL ($10 million AAV), but he owns the 32nd-ranked save percentage among qualified starters (.899).

Florida has gone to backup Spencer Knight more consistently, but he’s yet to fare any better. The fourth-year netminder has posted a 2.80 GAA this season and a measly .891 SV%.

Colorado’s goaltending has been a mess all season, but I’ll get more into that later.

Defence gets thrown out the window when these teams face off. Since January 2023, these teams have combined for at least eight goals in four of five matchups.

Key stat: The average game total in the past five meetings between Florida and Colorado is 8.8 goals. That includes a 7-4 win for Colorado on Nov. 23.

Quick pick

Panthers moneyline (+105): It’s always enticing to back the defending champions at plus money, and I see no reason to stay away tonight.

Florida, surprisingly, has performed better on the road this season versus at home. The same is true for Colorado.

  • Panthers
    Home: 12-8-1, +4 goal differential
    Road: 12-6-1, +7 goal differential
  • Avalanche
    Home: 11-8-1, -3 goal differential
    Road: 13-7-0, +10 goal differential

The Panthers also have the special teams advantage. Both teams are solid on the power play, but Colorado’s penalty kill ranks tied for 23rd (76.9%), while Florida’s ranks 14th (80.8%).

Now let’s get back to the Avalanche’s goaltending situation:

  • 24th in GAA (3.23)
  • 26th in SV% (.892)
  • 5+ goals allowed in 12/40 games

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Avalanche also have the lowest high-danger SV% in the NHL (76.04%).

Florida has won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, and I like that trend to continue tonight.

Picks made at 12:31 p.m. ET on 01/06/2025.

Panthers vs. Avalanche picks and odds Jan. 6: Bet on Florida to win, Drouin to score

Panthers picks

The Colorado Avalanche host the Florida Panthers in a primetime Monday night matchup.

The pregame narrative: Two teams with championship aspirations square off, and I’m backing the defending champs to win as road underdogs. I’m also taking the over and looking for Jonathan Drouin to score a point.

Check out my Panthers vs. Avalanche picks for Jan. 6.

Panthers vs. Avalanche picks

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Embed: #105289

Best bet: Over 6 goals (-112)

I’m anticipating a good old fashioned barn-burner tonight in Denver.

Both squads have raised the Stanley Cup in the past three years. Unsurprisingly, they both have high-powered offences and superstars all over the ice.

One aspect that hasn’t been up to par has been the goaltending.

Sergei Bobrovsky is the highest-paid goalie in the NHL ($10 million AAV), but he owns the 32nd-ranked save percentage among qualified starters (.899).

Florida has gone to backup Spencer Knight more consistently, but he’s yet to fare any better. The fourth-year netminder has posted a 2.80 GAA this season and a measly .891 SV%.

Colorado’s goaltending has been a mess all season, but I’ll get more into that later.

Defence gets thrown out the window when these teams face off. Since January 2023, these teams have combined for at least eight goals in four of five matchups.

Key stat: The average game total in the past five meetings between Florida and Colorado is 8.8 goals. That includes a 7-4 win for Colorado on Nov. 23.

Quick picks

Panthers moneyline (+105): It’s always enticing to back the defending champions at plus money, and I see no reason to stay away tonight.

Florida, surprisingly, has performed better on the road this season versus at home. The same is true for Colorado.

  • Panthers
    Home: 12-8-1, +4 goal differential
    Road: 12-6-1, +7 goal differential
  • Avalanche
    Home: 11-8-1, -3 goal differential
    Road: 13-7-0, +10 goal differential

The Panthers also have the special teams advantage. Both teams are solid on the power play, but Colorado’s penalty kill ranks tied for 23rd (76.9%), while Florida’s ranks 14th (80.8%).

Now let’s get back to the Avalanche’s goaltending situation:

  • 24th in GAA (3.23)
  • 26th in SV% (.892)
  • 5+ goals allowed in 12/40 games

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Avalanche also have the lowest high-danger SV% in the NHL (76.04%).

Florida has won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, and I like that trend to continue tonight.

Drouin to score 1+ points (-152): Drouin has already missed extended periods twice this season but has produced when healthy.

Since returning from his most recent injury, Drouin has scored one goal and added three assists in three games. In eight games this season, he’s been a point-per-game player (three goals, five assists).

Drouin averages over 20 minutes of ice time per game and plays on a loaded top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

The 2013 third-overall pick also plays on the top power play, which ranks 10th in the NHL (23.6%).

The Avalanche forward has six points in his last seven games against the Panthers.

Picks made at 11:22 a.m. ET on 01/06/2025.

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NHL prop picks Jan. 3: Back Sam Reinhart, Connor McDavid to produce on Friday night

NHL prop picks

There are five games on Friday’s NHL slate, and I have two props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: Sam Reinhart and the Florida Panthers have a plus matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I also have a play on Connor McDavid to record a power-play point.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 3.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Reinhart to score (+130)

Since the start of last season, Reinhart has paced the NHL in shooting percentage.

He posted a 24.5% shooting percentage in 2023-24 and is hovering around the same mark this season (23.4 SH%).

Reinhart is goal-less over his past four games, but this is a prime matchup to get off the schneid.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the most defensively-inept teams in the league:

  • 32nd in goals allowed (3.67/game).
  • 29th in shots allowed (31.4/game)
  • 29th in save percentage (.890)

Reinhart averages over 20 minutes of ice time, playing on Florida’s top line and No. 1 power-play unit. The Panthers’ power play is strong, scoring at a 24.8% clip (seventh in the NHL).

He’ll have as many opportunities as anyone to cash in on this grade-A matchup.

Key stat: Pittsburgh allows the most high-danger goals against per 60 minutes (1.77), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

McDavid over 0.5 power-play points (-118): I will happily take The Chosen One to record a power-play point at a price like this.

This is a stellar matchup for the Edmonton Oilers, who face a struggling Anaheim Ducks squad:

  • 31st in shots allowed (31.9/game)
  • 26th in penalty kill percentage (75.0%)
  • 17th in goals allowed (3.05/game)

McDavid was been on a heater in December, posting 23 points in 13 games. Eight of those points came on the man-advantage.

The Oilers rank in the top 10 in both goals per game (ninth) and shots per game (second). Anaheim takes just over four penalties per game. With that in mind, McDavid should have ample chances to capitalize on the power play.

McDavid has 53 career points against the Ducks in 29 matchups.

Picks made at 12:07 p.m. ET 01/03/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 3: Back Sam Reinhart, Connor McDavid to produce on Friday night

NHL prop picks

There are five games on Friday’s NHL slate, and I have two props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: Sam Reinhart and the Florida Panthers have a plus matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I also have a play on Connor McDavid to record a power-play point.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 3.

NHL prop picks

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Embed: #105022

Best bet: Reinhart to score (+114)

Since the start of last season, Reinhart has paced the NHL in shooting percentage.

He posted a 24.5% shooting percentage in 2023-24 and is hovering around the same mark this season (23.4 SH%).

Reinhart is goal-less over his past four games, but this is a prime matchup to get off the schneid.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the most defensively-inept teams in the league:

  • 32nd in goals allowed (3.67/game).
  • 29th in shots allowed (31.4/game)
  • 29th in save percentage (.890)

Reinhart averages over 20 minutes of ice time, playing on Florida’s top line and No. 1 power-play unit. The Panthers’ power play is strong, scoring at a 24.8% clip (seventh in the NHL).

He’ll have as many opportunities as anyone to cash in on this grade-A matchup.

Key stat: Pittsburgh allows the most high-danger goals against per 60 minutes (1.77), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

McDavid over 0.5 power-play points (+100): I will happily take The Chosen One to record a power-play point at even money.

This is a stellar matchup for the Edmonton Oilers, who face a struggling Anaheim Ducks squad:

  • 31st in shots allowed (31.9/game)
  • 26th in penalty kill percentage (75.0%)
  • 17th in goals allowed (3.05/game)

McDavid was been on a heater in December, posting 23 points in 13 games. Eight of those points came on the man-advantage.

The Oilers rank in the top 10 in both goals per game (ninth) and shots per game (second). Anaheim takes just over four penalties per game. With that in mind, McDavid should have ample chances to capitalize on the power play.

McDavid has 53 career points against the Ducks in 29 matchups.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. ET 01/03/2025.

Cavaliers vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Dec. 31: Back LeBron against hometown team in +850 wager

Cavaliers vs. Lakers predictions

The Los Angeles Lakers host the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA’s New Year’s Eve nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland is the favourite, but I’ll buy extra points with it in the second game of a back-to-back. I’m also backing LeBron James, Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell in this +850 behemoth SGP.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 31.

Cavaliers vs. Lakers predictions

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Embed: #104775

Parlay: Cavaliers +3.5 + James over 23.5 points + Mobley over 16.5 points + Mitchell over 5.5 assists (+850)

Cavaliers +3.5 (-305): Cleveland owns the NBA’s best ATS record at 23-9-0 and is 4-2-0 ATS with no days rest.

With that being said, the Lakers have been playing some impressive ball lately, and something about LeBron facing his former team scares me a bit.

I expect the first-place Cavs to keep this one close still. They have covered in 11 of their last 12 games and seven straight heading into the New Year’s Eve matchup.

Cleveland also smoked the Lakers in their latest matchup 134-110 on Oct. 30. They are seeking an eighth straight win and 12th road win on the season.

SGP legs

James over 23.5 points (-117): LeBron just celebrated his 40th birthday yesterday, so you know what that means — a nice birthday bump for Benjamin Buckets.

Between the birthday and playing his former and hometown team, I think the narrative aspect alone makes this intriguing. But let’s get deeper into it.

LeBron has been on a tear in December, averaging just south of 26 PPG in nearly 35 minutes per game. His field goal attempts have increased over that stretch from his season average (18.1) to 20.8.

He’s cleared this mark in three straight games and six of his last nine.

Over his illustrious career, LeBron has fared well against the Cavaliers. In 23 games, he’s averaged 28.3 points.

I anticipate these trends to continue tonight with a lot riding on this game.

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Mobley over 16.5 points (-129): Mobley had an off night yesterday against the Golden State Warriors but I won’t let that steer me away.

Cleveland had an 18-point lead heading into the fourth quarter where Golden State never really made it close. Mobley also ran into some early foul trouble, limiting him to just 24 minutes of action.

In his fourth season in the NBA, Mobley continues to get better each year. Now averaging north of 18 PPG on the season after an incredible run over the past five weeks.

  • In his last 13 games, the Cavs power forward is averaging 19.4 points.
  • He’s 58% shooting from the floor and an incredible 47% from deep during that stretch.

Mobley has cleared this mark in nine of those games. He also set a new career-high with 41 points on Dec. 7 against the Hornets.

If he stays out of foul trouble and the game doesn’t get out of hand, I expect him to easily clear this line.

Mitchell over 5.5 assists (+125): Mitchell has been known to be a scorer and less of a playmaker throughout his career in the NBA.

This season Mitchell has learned he can’t do it all himself, and it’s working. His Cavaliers are in first place in the league with a 28-4 record.

The Cavs own the league’s second-highest assists ratio (20.6) and tied for fifth in assists/game (28.8).

The five-time all-star is averaging 5.9 assists in his last 11 games, clearing this line in seven.

Los Angeles allows the fourth-most assists per game to opposing shooting guards, according to Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:33 a.m. ET 12/31/2024

Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres Dec. 20: Back Matthews, Marner to produce on Friday

Maple Leafs props

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres headline Friday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo’s defence and goaltending aren’t the strongest, so I’m taking the Leafs’ tog guns, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, to find the scoresheet.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres for the game on Dec. 20.

Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres

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Best bet: Matthews to score (+100)

Matthews has been on a bit of a dry spell but all signs point to him snapping that tonight in Buffalo.

The Sabres’ goaltending room has a collective 3.41 goals against average, which ranks 26th in the NHL.

There was a lot of hype around this team in the off-season between the young talent and bringing back the winningest head coach in franchise history, Lindy Ruff.

So far, the first 32 games haven’t gone to plan as Buffalo ranks near the bottom in every defensive category:

  • T26th in goals allowed/game: 3.41
  • 22nd in shots allowed/game: 29.4
  • 22nd in penalty kill: 77.4%
  • 29th in penalty minutes/game: 10.7

Toronto’s captain is experiencing the lowest shooting percentage of his career (10.4), but that should imrpove after tonight.

The Sabres allow the second-most high-danger goals against per 60 (1.79) and have the second-lowest high-danger save percentage (75.42%), per Natural Stat Trick.

Buffalo’s defence gives up numerous quality chances per game and it doesn’t have the goaltending to make the big saves when needed.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner sees over 20 minutes of ice time a night and plays on the top line with a couple of studs in Marner and William Nylander.

Key stat: Matthews has 19 goals in 27 career games against the Sabres.

Quick pick

Marner over 0.5 power-play points (+155): Marner has been an assists demon this season.

He’s fourth in the league with 32, only trailing Jack Eichel, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon.

Twelve of those assists have come on the man advantage, which bodes well for this play. 

As mentioned above, the Sabres own the 22nd-ranked penalty kill and take the fourth-most penalty minutes per game (10.7).

Marner leads all Maple Leafs in power-play points (16) and averages the second most power-play time on ice (3:16).

The former London Knight has produced seven goals and 25 assists in 26 games versus Buffalo in his career.

Picks made at 12:49 p.m. on 12/20/2024.