Jackson Kerbl, Author at The Boost

Commanders vs. Buccaneers wild-card prop picks: Bet on Tampa Bay’s Irving, McMillan and fade Mayfield

I have three player props worth taking for Sunday night’s NFL wild-card round matchup.

The pregame narrative: This weekend’s highest projected total comes in a game featuring the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m backing Tampa’s Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan to have big games while fading Baker Mayfield.

Check out my Commanders vs. Buccaneers prop picks for the wild-card round.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers prop picks

Go to full NFL playoff betting markets

Best bet: Irving over 91.5 rushing yards (-120)

When you look back on Irving’s rookie season, it’s hard to believe he was a fourth-round selection.

Irving paced all rookies in rushing yards (1,122) and rushing touchdowns (eight).

As a result, it didn’t take long for Irving to pass Rachaad White as Tampa Bay’s feature running back.

Irving has averaged 107.8 rushing yards over the last five full games (not including Week 13, where he exited the game in the second quarter due to injury). He cleared the 100-yard mark in three of those contests.

The former Oregon Duck kicks off his NFL playoff career in a great spot against one of the worst rush defences in the league.

The Commanders have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards just four times this season, and when you hear the teams, you’ll understand why:

Panthers
Cowboys
Titans
Saints (without Alvin Kamara)

Key stat: Washington’s defence allows the third-most rushing yards per game (137.5).

Quick picks

Mayfield under 253.5 passing yards (-118): Mayfield is having a career year with highs in passing yards and touchdowns. With that said, I don’t believe he can keep it up in this matchup.

Washington head coach Dan Quinn has had a consistent defensive strategy for most of the season. The Commanders do a good job of limiting big plays downfield, but in return, they’re susceptible to damage in the run game.

As a result, they own the third-best passing defence (189.5 yards/game) and rank 13th in total defence (327.9 total yards/game).

The Commanders have given up over 242 yards through the air just three times this season, and each of those instances was before Week 7.

I expect Tampa to be playing from in front, which would be a plus for this play.

If the Bucs are ahead, they should pound the rock and control the ground game, keeping the ball away from Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

Mayfield’s NFL-leading 16 interceptions adds extra incentive for Tampa Bay to establish the run early and wear down Washington’s defence.

McMillan anytime touchdown scorer (+137): McMillan has been another rookie sensation for this Buccaneers offence.

The 2024 third-round pick started sluggish this season, but he has come on strong in the last five weeks. He’s racked up 316 yards over that stretch, after just 145 yards in his first eight games.

McMillan has been most impressive in the red zone. Four of his eight touchdowns have come inside the 20-yard line, and he’s caught seven of his eight red zone targets, per Fantasy Pros.

The rookie wide receiver has found the back of the end zone in five straight games, scoring seven touchdowns in that span.

Picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers wild-card prop picks: Bet on Tampa Bay’s Irving, McMillan and fade Mayfield

I have three player props worth taking for Sunday night’s NFL wild-card round matchup.

The pregame narrative: This weekend’s highest projected total comes in a game featuring the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m backing Tampa’s Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan to have big games while fading Baker Mayfield.

Check out my Commanders vs. Buccaneers prop picks for the wild-card round.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers prop picks

Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.

Embed: #106007

Best bet: Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-114)

When you look back on Irving’s rookie season, it’s hard to believe he was a fourth-round selection.

Irving paced all rookies in rushing yards (1,122) and rushing touchdowns (eight).

As a result, it didn’t take long for Irving to pass Rachaad White as Tampa Bay’s feature running back.

Irving has averaged 107.8 rushing yards over the last five full games (not including Week 13, where he exited the game in the second quarter due to injury). He cleared the 100-yard mark in three of those contests.

The former Oregon Duck kicks off his NFL playoff career in a great spot against one of the worst rush defences in the league.

The Commanders have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards just four times this season, and when you hear the teams, you’ll understand why:

Panthers
Cowboys
Titans
Saints (without Alvin Kamara)

Key stat: Washington’s defence allows the third-most rushing yards per game (137.5).

Quick picks

Mayfield under 243.5 passing yards (-115): Mayfield is having a career year with highs in passing yards and touchdowns. With that said, I don’t believe he can keep it up in this matchup.

Washington head coach Dan Quinn has had a consistent defensive strategy for most of the season. The Commanders do a good job of limiting big plays downfield, but in return, they’re susceptible to damage in the run game.

As a result, they own the third-best passing defence (189.5 yards/game) and rank 13th in total defence (327.9 total yards/game).

The Commanders have given up over 242 yards through the air just three times this season, and each of those instances was before Week 7.

I expect Tampa to be playing from in front, which would be a plus for this play.

If the Bucs are ahead, they should pound the rock and control the ground game, keeping the ball away from Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

Mayfield’s NFL-leading 16 interceptions adds extra incentive for Tampa Bay to establish the run early and wear down Washington’s defence.

McMillan anytime touchdown scorer (+160): McMillan has been another rookie sensation for this Buccaneers offence.

The 2024 third-round pick started sluggish this season, but he has come on strong in the last five weeks. He’s racked up 316 yards over that stretch, after just 145 yards in his first eight games.

McMillan has been most impressive in the red zone. Four of his eight touchdowns have come inside the 20-yard line, and he’s caught seven of his eight red zone targets, per Fantasy Pros.

The rookie wide receiver has found the back of the end zone in five straight games, scoring seven touchdowns in that span.

Picks made at 3:23 p.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Looking to get started? Click here.

Maple Leafs props vs. Canucks Jan. 11: Back Knies, Hughes, and fade DeBrusk on Saturday night

A loaded 15-game NHL slate on Saturday features the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Vancouver Canucks.

The pregame narrative: Matthew Knies has been scorching hot and I like him to pick up a point in the interconference showdown against Vancouver. Additionally, I’m backing Quinn Hughes to produce on the power play and fading Jake DeBrusk’s shots prop.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Canucks for Jan. 11.

Maple Leafs props vs. Canucks

Go to full NHL betting markets

Best bet: Knies to score 1+ points (-112)

Knies has relished his opportunity on Toronto’s first line, and I expect more production against a suspect defensive team.

His linemates tonight will be Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, who’ve combined for a whopping 90 points at the halfway mark of the season.

Knies has 27 points in 41 games and is on pace to smash his points total from last season (35).

In his last four games, he’s scored five goals and tallied three assists. He also has a staggering 50.0% shooting percentage in that span.

The 22-year-old’s confidence seems to be growing exponentially with the more playing time he gets. His 22.2 SH% on the season exceeded his career average by more than nine percentage points.

Key stat: Vancouver accrues the eighth-most penalty minutes per game (9.4) and ranks 21st in goals allowed per game (3.15).

Quick picks

DeBrusk under 1.5 shots (+125): DeBrusk hasn’t been shooting the puck a ton despite his production this season.

He paces the Canucks in goals (17) but has been on a cold stretch lately, with just three in his last 13 games.

DeBrusk’s career-high 19.5 SH% plays a factor. He’s on track to break his single-season goals record (27) and is shooting the puck at an ultra-efficient rate.

Vancouver has the second-lowest shots on goal per game (25.4), ahead of only the Chicago Blackhawks.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Canucks are fifth-worst in high-danger chances per 60 (9.88).

DeBrusk has cashed this bet in four of the last five games.

Hughes over 0.5 power-play points (+130): Hughes has been Vancouver’s best player this year, and it’s not particularly close.

1st in points (45)
1st in assists (37)
1st in time on ice (25:19)
2nd in plus-minus (+12)

Despite the Canucks’ offensive woes, their 14th-ranked power play has been sufficient — and it’s led by the reigning Norris Trophy winner.

Hughes paces all Canucks in power-play points (18) and power-play ice time (3:47/game). He has eight more power-play points than the next Canucks player.

In his past seven games, Hughes has four power-play points.

Picks made at 1:43 p.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Maple Leafs props vs. Canucks Jan. 11: Back Knies, Hughes, and fade DeBrusk on Saturday night

A loaded 15-game NHL slate on Saturday features the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Vancouver Canucks.

The pregame narrative: Matthew Knies has been scorching hot and I like him to pick up a point in the interconference showdown against Vancouver. Additionally, I’m backing Quinn Hughes to produce on the power play and fading Jake DeBrusk’s shots prop.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Canucks for Jan. 11.

Maple Leafs props vs. Canucks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #105994

Best bet: Knies to score 1+ points (-112)

Knies has relished his opportunity on Toronto’s first line, and I expect more production against a suspect defensive team.

His linemates tonight will be Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, who’ve combined for a whopping 90 points at the halfway mark of the season.

Knies has 27 points in 41 games and is on pace to smash his points total from last season (35).

In his last four games, he’s scored five goals and tallied three assists. He also has a staggering 50.0% shooting percentage in that span.

The 22-year-old’s confidence seems to be growing exponentially with the more playing time he gets. His 22.2 SH% on the season exceeded his career average by more than nine percentage points.

Key stat: Vancouver accrues the eighth-most penalty minutes per game (9.4) and ranks 21st in goals allowed per game (3.15).

Quick picks

DeBrusk under 1.5 shots (+135): DeBrusk hasn’t been shooting the puck a ton despite his production this season.

He paces the Canucks in goals (17) but has been on a cold stretch lately, with just three in his last 13 games.

DeBrusk’s career-high 19.5 SH% plays a factor. He’s on track to break his single-season goals record (27) and is shooting the puck at an ultra-efficient rate.

Vancouver has the second-lowest shots on goal per game (25.4), ahead of only the Chicago Blackhawks.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Canucks are fifth-worst in high-danger chances per 60 (9.88).

DeBrusk has cashed this bet in four of the last five games.

Hughes over 0.5 power-play points (+150): Hughes has been Vancouver’s best player this year, and it’s not particularly close.

1st in points (45)
1st in assists (37)
1st in time on ice (25:19)
2nd in plus-minus (+12)

Despite the Canucks’ offensive woes, their 14th-ranked power play has been sufficient — and it’s led by the reigning Norris Trophy winner.

Hughes paces all Canucks in power-play points (18) and power-play ice time (3:47/game). He has eight more power-play points than the next Canucks player.

In his past seven games, Hughes has four power-play points.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions Jan. 11: Bet on Barnes, Duren in +500 SGP

Saturday night’s NBA slate features the Detroit Pistons hosting the Toronto Raptors.

The pregame narrative: Detroit has fared well against Toronto lately, and I expect that trend to continue in a win for the home team. Scottie Barnes and Jalen Duren props round out this +500 ticket.

Check out my Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.

Raptors vs. Pistons predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Pistons -1.5 + Barnes over 19.5 points + Duren over 11.5 points (+500)

Pistons -1.5 (-182): The Raptors might not be winning many games, but they know how to put on a good tank. And with this year’s draft class, who can blame them?

Toronto used to have one of the top ATS records in the league. The team’s current ATS record (21-16-1) is still nothing to sneeze at, but it’s tapered off since the start of the season.

First 16 games: 11-5-0 ATS
Past 14 games: 4-10-0 ATS

The Pistons have been one of this year’s pleasant surprises thus far. They currently sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a .500 record (19-19). Last season, no team was worse, as Detroit finished dead last in the NBA with a .171 winning percentage.

Detroit is 8-2 in its last 10 games with impressive victories over the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, covering the spread in all three.

The Raptors have gone four straight meetings versus the Pistons without victory, and with the current states of each team, I don’t see them snapping the streak tonight.

SGP legs

Duren over 11.5 points (-108): Duren’s production has dipped a touch from last season, but I still like him to have a good night in a plus matchup.

Toronto has struggled against opposing bigs all season, and its recent games have shown no improvement:

Jarrett Allen (Jan. 9): 18 points, 8-of-9 shooting
Karl-Anthony Towns (Jan. 8): 27 points, 9-of-14 shooting
Brook Lopez (Jan. 6): 16 points, 6-of-10 shooting

Duren has seen his minutes increase over the past three weeks, averaging north of 27 minutes per game, largely due to his quality of play on the court.

He’s also cleared this mark in his previous four games against Toronto, averaging 16.75 PPG over that stretch.

The Raptors allow the sixth-most points per game to opposing centres (23.5), per Betting Pros.

Barnes over 19.5 points (-106): Since returning from injury, Barnes has proven why he’s the face of the franchise.

The fourth-year forward has averaged 22.3 PPG over his last nine games, shooting 53.0% from the floor over that stretch.

In a rebuilding year for the Raps, it’s encouraging to see Barnes is still playing with confidence and aggression — even when the team results don’t follow.

Detroit allows the seventh-most points per game to opposing power forwards (23.4).

In Barnes’ previous two games versus the Pistons, he finished with 22 and 31 points, respectively, averaging 36.5 minutes per game.

Picks made at 11:44 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions Jan. 11: Bet on Barnes, Duren in +410 SGP

Saturday night’s NBA slate features the Detroit Pistons hosting the Toronto Raptors.

The pregame narrative: Detroit has fared well against Toronto lately, and I expect that trend to continue in a win for the home team. Scottie Barnes and Jalen Duren props round out this +410 ticket.

Check out my Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.

Raptors vs. Pistons predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #105955

Parlay: Pistons -1.5 + Barnes over 18.5 points + Duren over 10.5 points (+410)

Pistons -1.5 (-195): The Raptors might not be winning many games, but they know how to put on a good tank. And with this year’s draft class, who can blame them?

Toronto used to have one of the top ATS records in the league. The team’s current ATS record (21-16-1) is still nothing to sneeze at, but it’s tapered off since the start of the season.

First 16 games: 11-5-0 ATS
Past 14 games: 4-10-0 ATS

The Pistons have been one of this year’s pleasant surprises thus far. They currently sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a .500 record (19-19). Last season, no team was worse, as Detroit finished dead last in the NBA with a .171 winning percentage.

Detroit is 8-2 in its last 10 games with impressive victories over the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, covering the spread in all three.

The Raptors have gone four straight meetings versus the Pistons without victory, and with the current states of each team, I don’t see them snapping the streak tonight.

SGP legs

Duren over 10.5 points (-125): Duren’s production has dipped a touch from last season, but I still like him to have a good night in a plus matchup.

Toronto has struggled against opposing bigs all season, and its recent games have shown no improvement:

Jarrett Allen (Jan. 9): 18 points, 8-of-9 shooting
Karl-Anthony Towns (Jan. 8): 27 points, 9-of-14 shooting
Brook Lopez (Jan. 6): 16 points, 6-of-10 shooting

Duren has seen his minutes increase over the past three weeks, averaging north of 27 minutes per game, largely due to his quality of play on the court.

He’s also cleared this mark in his previous four games against Toronto, averaging 16.75 PPG over that stretch.

The Raptors allow the sixth-most points per game to opposing centres (23.5), per Betting Pros.

Barnes over 18.5 points (-134): Since returning from injury, Barnes has proven why he’s the face of the franchise.

The fourth-year forward has averaged 22.3 PPG over his last nine games, shooting 53.0% from the floor over that stretch.

In a rebuilding year for the Raps, it’s encouraging to see Barnes is still playing with confidence and aggression — even when the team results don’t follow.

Detroit allows the seventh-most points per game to opposing power forwards (23.4).

In Barnes’ previous two games versus the Pistons, he finished with 22 and 31 points, respectively, averaging 36.5 minutes per game.

Picks made at 10:07 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Steelers vs. Ravens wild-card prop picks: Bet on Jackson, Andrews and Warren to produce

For the second time in three weeks, the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The pregame narrative: The AFC North rivals square off in the wild-card round with plenty of ill will. I’m backing Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Jaylen Warren props on Saturday night.

Check out my Steelers vs. Ravens prop picks for the wild-card round.

Steelers vs. Ravens prop picks

Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.

Embed: #105928

Best bet: Jackson over 217.5 passing yards (-113)

There’ a lot at stake for Jackson and the Ravens.

The two-time NFL MVP is a regular season has been criticized for his lack of performance when it matters.

Jackson has a career regular season record of 70-24 as a starter but is 2-4 in the playoffs.

The closest he came to Super Bowl appearance was last year, when his Ravens (the No. 1 seed) lost, 17-10, to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game.

But the former Louisville Cardinal has looked different this year as he chases his third MVP.

Jackson put up an insane 41:4 TD-to-INT ratio.

That’s the fourth-best mark in a single season by quarterbacks with 10-plus starts, per Statmuse.

Jackson also rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns.

Pittsburgh has seen its fair share of Jackson and plays similarly against him nearly every time. The Steelers force him to stay in the pocket and make throws, rather than letting him run all over the field.

In the two games this year, the Steelers contained Jackson to 68 rush yards, but he threw for exactly 207 passing yards in each contest.

Jackson’s 4,172 yards through the air this season marked a career high and I anticipate this trend to continue in the playoffs.

Key stat: Jackson cleared this line in 11 of 17 games.

Quick picks

Warren over 21.5 receiving yards (-112): It’s pretty clear Pittsburgh has a power back and a receiving back. Warren fits the ladder.

The Steelers may find trouble running the ball as Baltimore owns the No. 1 rush defence in the NFL (80.1 yards/game). And if they fall behind early, that adds an extra layer of difficulty.

Aside from Russell Wilson’s moonball attempts, Pittsburgh will likely use short-yardage passing plays through the middle of the field, with Baltimore’s talented corners lining up on the outside.

That’s the dream scenario for Warren to make his mark.

The third-year running back has cashed this bet in six of his last nine games.

In his two meetings versus the Ravens, he combined for 71 receiving yards, clearing the line both times.

Andrews anytime touchdown scorer (+140): As the regular season rolled along, Andrews’ production rolled along with it.

His part in the offence increased every week. Andrews went scoreless through the first five games but finished the season with a career-high 11 touchdowns.

Andrews has found the back of the end zone in six straight games and leads all tight ends in red zone touchdowns (10) this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

The former third-round pick has yet to score a postseason TD, but I expect that streak to come to an end.

Picks made at 4:30 p.m. ET on 01/10/2025.

Chargers vs. Texans wild-card same-game parlay predictions: Bet on L.A.’s Herbert, McConkey in +265 SGP

Chargers vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions

The 2025 NFL playoffs have arrived as the Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Houston has struggled down the home stretch of the season, which is why I’m backing Los Angeles as the road favourite. Prop plays on Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey round out this +265 wager.

Check out my Chargers vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions.

Chargers vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions

Go to full NFL betting markets

Embed: #105902

Parlay: Chargers moneyline + Herbert 220+ passing yards + McConkey 75+ receiving yards (+265)

Chargers moneyline (-152): The Chargers won three straight games ahead of the playoffs, as head coach Jim Harbaugh seems to have his guys geared for a run in January.

The main focus Harbaugh brought this year was stability on defence, which was something former L.A. coach Brandon Staley lacked. Here’s how the 2024 Chargers defence ranks:

1st in scoring (17.7 PPG)
7th in passing (206.9 yards/game)
11th in total defence (324.4 yards/game)

Safety Derwin James is having another Pro-Bowl-calibre season, and 33-year-old Khalil Mack is turning back the clock by playing some of the best football of his career.

Another huge part of the Chargers’ success down the stretch has been the performance of Herbert, but I’ll get more into that in a bit.

With Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell’s season-ending injuries, I don’t believe the Texans have the weapons to beat Los Angeles.

Other parlay picks

Herbert over 220+ passing yards (-157): From Weeks 1-7, I nearly thought Herbert would get benched for Taylor Heinicke — he was that bad.

In those six games, Herbert threw just six touchdowns and posted a 53.8 QBR (on a 0-100 scale). His team went 3-3.

But like all great athletes, Herbert was able to flip a switch. Before long, the gunslinger quarterback we all saw earlier in his career started to show.

In the final 11 games of the season, he threw for 246.0 yards per game while posting a 17:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a 66.3 QBR.

Having a strong run game always helps, as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were a solid one-two punch in the backfield, amassing nearly 1,300 yards on the ground.

Herbert has cleared this mark in three straight games and eight of his last 13.

Houston’s pass defence has been susceptible to porous efforts down the stretch. The team has allowed 220-plus yards through the air in six of its last eight games.

McConkey 75+ receiving yards (-113): McConkey has been a dog this season, and I mean that in all the best ways possible.

The second-round pick out of Georgia may have been the steal of the 2024 draft class.

McConkey caught 82 passes for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season with the Chargers.

He’s cleared 75 receiving yards in five of the last seven contests, averaging over 93 yards per game during that stretch.

The aforementioned former Georgia Bulldog has ample big-game experience. Having won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022, I don’t suspect he’ll shy away when the lights get bright.

Picks made at 12:38 p.m. ET on 01/10/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 9: Back Werenski, Fowler and Brown to find the scoresheet on Thursday

Ten games are featured on Thursday night’s loaded NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Zach Werenski is one of the hottest players in the NHL, and the Columbus Blue Jackets have a plus matchup tonight, at home, against the Seattle Kraken. I like him to record a power-play point. Additionally, I’m backing Cam Fowler and Connor Brown to get on the score sheet.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 9.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #105825

Best bet: Werenski over 0.5 power-play points (+185)

Don’t look now, but the Blue Jackets hold the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference after finishing dead last a season ago.

They’ve won six of their last nine contests, averaging over four goals per game in that stretch. A large part of the recent success is their performance at home this season.

Home: 13-5-3, +17 goal differential
Away: 5-12-3, -24 goal differential

Columbus’ offence has been ranked in the top 10 for the bulk of the season, but the power play has caught fire recently, with Werenski leading the charge.

Werenski tallied 15 points in his last nine games. Seven of which have come on the man-advantage.

The former eighth-overall pick is on pace to smash his single-season points record (57) set last year and he’s averaging nearly three minutes per game on the power play.

Key stat: Werenski leads the Blue Jackets in points (46) and power-play points (19).

Quick picks

Fowler to score 1+ points (+123): Sticking to the scoring defenceman theme, I’m taking Fowler to produce against his old team.

Not exactly a pure revenge spot, as parting ways with Anaheim was mutual, but I still expect this one would be circled on Fowler’s calendar.

Fowler has thrived in his new home scoring nine points in 12 games with the Blues, after a measly four points in 17 games with the Ducks.

The Windsor native is pacing a point per game in his last nine with an astonishing 22.2 SH% over that stretch.

The Ducks allow the most high-danger chances per 60 in the league (14.1), according to Natural Stat Trick. They also own the 26th-ranked penalty kill (73.7%).

Brown to score 1+ points (+133): Connor Brown recently got the promotion to Edmonton’s first line, playing with Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

He’s taken advantage of the opportunity, recording six points in his last seven games. That comes after a supremely sluggish 13 points in 33 games to start the year.

It’s no secret the Pittsburgh Penguins have struggled defensively all season.

Last in goals allowed/game (3.62)
Last in high-danger goals/allowed per 60 (1.78)
29th in shots allowed/game (31.4)

I anticipate Brown to receive opulent opportunity to get on the scoresheet playing with a couple of the league’s premier playmakers.

Picks made at 2:32 p.m. ET on 01/09/2025.

Maple Leafs props vs. Hurricanes Jan. 9: Bet on Tavares, fade Rielly and Jarvis on Thursday night

Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference square off on Thursday as the Carolina Hurricanes host the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The pregame narrative: John Tavares has had success against Carolina in ample experience. I’m backing him to score a point while fading Seth Jarvis and Morgan Rielly in points and shots props, respectively.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Hurricanes for Jan. 9.

Maple Leafs props vs. Hurricanes

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Tavares to score 1+ points (-134)

This isn’t the ideal matchup for offensive output on either side.

Team	Goals allowed/game	Penalty kill %
Maple Leafs	2.74 (9th)	83.2% (7th)
Hurricanes	2.80 (11th)	84.9% (1st)

The last time these teams met, back in March, Carolina earned a 2-1 victory in insipid fashion.

Tavares has been on quite the run in his contract year with Toronto. He’s on a point-per-game pace, with 17 points in his last 12 games.

The 34-year-old plays on a line with two sharpshooters, William Nylander and Bobby McMann, who’ve combined for 35 goals this season.

Tavares is also featured on the No. 1 power play, which has cashed in on more than 20.0% of its chances.

Key stat: In 48 career games versus Carolina, Tavares has 29 goals and 27 assists.

Quick picks

Rielly under 1.5 shots (-130): Rielly has hit a bit of a lull offensively for the Buds.

Over his past 16 games, Rielly has just 21 shots and a 4.8% shooting percentage.

Compare that to his first 16 games of the season, when Rielly put up 29 shots with a 13.8% shooting percentage.

Rielly has cashed this bet in eight of the last 11 games, with just 12 shots total over that stretch.

This is a great spot for that trend to continue. Carolina allows the second-fewest shots in the NHL (25.2/game).

Jarvis under 0.5 points (+115): Jarvis is currently on a hot streak, but I believe that’ll come to an end tonight.

The fourth-year winger has never fared well against Toronto in his young career — posting just two points in seven games with a -4 rating.

The Leafs come into Raleigh on a five-game heater in which they’ve allowed more than two goals just once (a 6-4 win against Boston on Jan. 4).

Jarvis, known for his offence, isn’t the strongest defensive player. Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour might be more inclined to give his third or fourth-line guys more ice time to shut down the Leafs’ uber-talented forwards.

Picks made at 12:34 p.m. ET on 01/09/2025.