Jackson Kerbl

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto hopes to end its homestand on a positive note and avoid a four-game skid. I’m backing Jack Hughes in the shots department while fading Auston Matthews in the same category. I also have a play on Timo Meier.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Devils for Jan. 16.

Maple Leafs props vs. Devils

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Best bet: Meier under 0.5 points (-129)

The Craig Berube experience has been as advertised.

Not the most exciting hockey, but it gets results with a stout defence night in and night out.

• 2023-24 Leafs goals allowed per game: 3.06
• 2024-25 Leafs goals allowed per game: 2.84

Joseph Woll is the confirmed starter for the Leafs, and the fourth-year netminder has not disappointed. Woll’s play has been good enough for a 14-8-0 record with a 2.65 goals against average.

Meier has lost a step offensively since coming over from the San Jose Sharks to the Devils.

During his last two years in San Jose, Meier was nearly a point-per-game player (0.95), but his numbers have dropped in New Jersey.

Key stat: Meier has been limited to three points in his last nine games.

Quick picks

Matthews under 3.5 shots (-124): If you’ve been tracking my plays lately, you would notice a lot of material on players going under their shots total.

My next play goes against this, but it’s been working for Leafs’ players so I’ll keep backing down.

Matthews was a demon in the shots-on-goal department in December and early January but has cooled off since:

• Matthews cleared this line in 7/8 games between Dec. 7 and Jan. 4.
  
• Since then, he’s gone under this in five straight despite producing six points.

The Devils allow the third-least amount of shots per game in the league (25.6).

Hughes over 3.5 shots (-130): To borrow a phrase from Charles Barkley, Hughes has recently been “shooting that thang” at a high rate.

And with the Devils in second place in the East, I don’t see any reason for him to steer away.

The young superstar has cleared this line in eight of the last nine games, with 41 total shots over that span.

According to Natural Stat Trick, New Jersey has the highest expected goals rate per 60 (3.55). Toronto also ranks 24th in the NHL in shots allowed/game (29.1).

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/16/2025.

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The Vancouver Canucks head east to face the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Winnipeg looks to stay atop the Western Conference standings as they welcome the struggling Canucks into town. I’m backing Joshua Morrissey and Quinn Hughes to get on the scoresheet tonight. I also have a play on Jake DeBrusk.

Check out my Canucks vs. Jets prop picks for Jan. 14.

Canucks vs. Jets prop picks

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Best bet: Morrissey to score 1+ points (-150)

Winnipeg enters Tuesday’s contest as one of the best home teams in the league.

• 16-4-3 record
• +35 goal differential

Home vs away splits aside, the Jets offence has been historically good this season.

• 3rd in goals/game: 3.55
• 1st in power-play percentage: 32.3%
• 3rd in shooting percentage: 12.7%

Whenever these teams square off against each other, you can expect goals.

In the previous eight meetings, they’ve combined for nearly seven goals per game.

The Calgary native leads all Jets players in time on ice (24:11) and power play time (2:55) per game.

Key stat: Morrissey is 5-0 against this line in his past five games.

Quick picks

Hughes over 0.5 power-play points (+150): Vancouver’s season hasn’t exactly gone to plan.

The 2023-24 Pacific Division champs find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to playoff seeding this year.

One thing that has remained consistent is Hughes’ play. Here are his ranks among Canucks players:

• 1st in points (47)
• 1st in assists (38)
• 1st in time in ice (25:16)
• 1st in plus-minus (+15)

Despite Vancouver’s woes, their 14th-ranked power play has been sufficient — and it’s led by the reigning Norris Trophy winner.

Hughes paces all Canucks in power-play points (19) and power-play ice time (3:41/game). He has eight more power-play points than the next Canucks player.

The 2018 seventh-overall pick has three power-play points in his last five games.

DeBrusk under 1.5 shots (+115): DeBrusk has been productive in his first season with Vancouver. The former Boston Bruin has picked up 17 goals and 29 points in 42 games this season.

However, he’s been on a cold stretch lately, scoring just three goals in his last 14 games, with only 21 shots on goal over that stretch.

Vancouver ranks 31st in shots/game (25.2), and per Natural Stat Trick, fifth-worst in high-danger chances per 60 (9.88).

DeBrusk has failed to record two-plus shots in five of the last six games.

Picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 01/14/2025.

A loaded 13-game NHL slate on Tuesday includes the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Dallas Stars.

The pregame narrative: Toronto aims to avoid a three-game skid as it squares off against one of the strongest defensive-minded teams in the NHL. I’m fading Morgan Rielly’s and John Tavares’ shots props, while backing Evgenii Dadonov to score 1+ points.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Stars for Jan. 14.

Maple Leafs props vs. Stars

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Best bet: Rielly under 1.5 shots (-114)

I took this same pick on Jan. 9 when the Leafs faced the Hurricanes. Rielly had one shot on goal with less than 19 minutes of ice time.

The 12-year veteran has averaged 22:10 time-on-ice throughout his career. However, he’s played fewer than 20 minutes eight times this season. Perhaps the highest-paid Leafs defenceman’s lack of offence and -14 rating isn’t going over well with Leafs first-year head coach Craig Berube.

• Over his past 18 games, Rielly has just 22 total shots and a 4.5% shooting percentage.
  
• Compare that to his first 18 games of the season when Rielly put up 35 shots with a 14.4% shooting percentage.

These two teams squared off Dec. 18. On that night Rielly recorded zero shots on goals in a winning Leafs effort.

Key stat: Rielly has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 13 games, including five straight heading into tonight’s matchup.

Quick picks

Tavares under 2.5 shots (-124): Tavares is proving he wants to remain a Maple Leaf when his contract expires at the end of this season.

The 34-year-old has 42 points in 43 games this year while playing some of his best hockey in years.

Since the start of December, he’s been pacing a point per game but choosing quality of shot over quantity.

In his past 20 games, he’s averaging just 2.2 shots/game while putting up 20 points on a 20.5 shooting percentage. To put that in perspective, his career shooting percentage is 13.0%.

Dallas is also one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.

• 3rd in goals allowed/game: 2.48
• 5th in shots allowed/game: 26.4
• T1st in penalty kill percentage: 85%

Tavares has cashed this bet in six of the last seven contests.

Dadonov to record 1+ points (+116): For a team struggling to find offence, Dadonov has been a bright spot for the Stars.

Despite Dallas’ lack of production on the power play, Dadonov has two goals on the man advantage in the last four games. The Russian winger has 12 points in his past 12 games, including a two-point night against Toronto on Dec. 18.

Dallas is third in the NHL in expected goals per 60 (3.43), per Natural Stat Trick.

Picks made at 11:24 ET on 01/14/2025.

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There are just three games in the NHL on Monday night, and I have a prop bet for each.

The pregame narrative: Two teams struggling offensively square off in Chicago when the Blackhawks host the Calgary Flames. I’m taking the under on Tyler Bertuzzi’s point prop. I also have plays on Connor McDavid and Carter Verhaeghe’s shots props.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 13.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Bertuzzi under 0.5 points (-127)

The Flames and Blackhawks are two of the worst offensive teams in the NHL, and it’s not particularly close.

In the previous four meetings, the average goals per game was 4.75, with Chicago only scoring six out of 19.

Bertuzzi hasn’t fared well in his career against the Flames. In 11 games, the Sudbury native has just eight points and owns a -4 rating.

Key stat: The Blackhawks have the lowest expected goals per 60 (2.49), per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick picks

Verhaeghe over 2.5 shots (-130): Veraeghe’s scoring production is down this season, and has resulted in a third-line demotion.

He’s on pace for just 20 goals this year, after 42 and 34 goals, respectively, in the past two years. And his shooting percentage is a career-low 7.8%.

What hasn’t faltered has been the amount of shots he’s taking. In 2023-24 Verhaeghe had 500 shots attempted, and so far through this season, he’s reached 270 shot attempts.

The Toronto native has cleared this line in four of the five games, including a six-shot performance on Saturday against the Boston Bruins.

McDavid over 2.5 shots (-143): Edmonton is one of the hottest teams in the NHL, scoring at will.

The Oilers have 15 goals in their last four games, with McDavid racking up four points and 15 shots over that stretch.

I’m anticipating a close game tonight, with Edmonton and the Los Angeles Kings being separated by just two points in the Western Conference standings.

The Kings’ goaltending has been terrific this season, leading the NHL with a 2.45 team goals-against average.

Edmonton will have to pepper whoever’s in the net for Los Angeles, and McDavid should be leading the charge.

Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 01/13/2025.