Jackson Kerbl

Raptors vs. Hawks predictions Jan. 23: Bet on Trae Young, fade Jalen Johnson on Thursday

Raptors vs. Hawks predictions

The Atlanta Hawks host the Toronto Raptors on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors travel to Atlanta on a hot stretch. I’m backing the Raptors to keep it close with a slightly teased-up spread. I’m also backing Trae Young while fading Jalen Johnson.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hawks predictions for Jan. 23.

Raptors vs. Hawks predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Best bet: Raptors +5.5 (-143)

Don’t look now, but the Raptors have won three of their last four contests, beating the Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.

Atlanta entered the new year with four straight victories but is 4-6 since then. The Hawks failed to cover the spread in seven of the previous 10 contests.

Despite an 11-32 record, Toronto still holds the sixth-best ATS record (24-18-1).

Zaccharie Risacher, the 2024 first-overall pick will still be sidelined with a thigh injury. Expect Vit Krejci to fill in the starting small forward role — averaging just 5.6 points per game.

Key stat: The Raps are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.

Quick picks

Young over 26.5 points (-130): Young has been a dog over the past six weeks, and I mean that in the best way possible.

In his past 15 games, Young has averaged 26.5 points while shooting over 41% from deep. He’s also added 10.7 assists over that stretch.

The former Oklahoma Sooner torched the Raps the last time they played on Dec. 29. He went 10-of-21 from the field, 7-of-13 from three, and made all seven free-throw attempts for 34 points.

Toronto also allows the fifth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.69), according to Betting Pros.

Johnson under 21.5 (-120): Johnson is averaging just 14 points in his last three games since missing time with a shoulder injury, shooting below 40.0% in each contest.

I’m surprised his points line is this high considering he hasn’t cleared this mark since Dec. 28 and is averaging 19.3 points on the year.

Toronto allows the seventh-most PPG to small forwards but has held Johnson under this mark in three straight games.

In those contests, he averaged just 14.6 points PPG.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

Raptors vs. Hawks predictions Jan. 23: Bet on Trae Young, fade Jalen Johnson on Thursday

Raptors vs. Hawks predictions

The Atlanta Hawks host the Toronto Raptors on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors travel to Atlanta on a hot stretch. I’m backing the Raptors to keep it close with a slightly teased-up spread. I’m also backing Trae Young while fading Jalen Johnson.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hawks predictions for Jan. 23.

Raptors vs. Hawks predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Embed: #107253

Best bet: Raptors +5.5 (-130)

Don’t look now, but the Raptors have won three of their last four contests, beating the Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.

Atlanta entered the new year with four straight victories but is 4-6 since then. The Hawks failed to cover the spread in seven of the previous 10 contests.

Despite an 11-32 record, Toronto still holds the sixth-best ATS record (24-18-1).

Zaccharie Risacher, the 2024 first-overall pick will still be sidelined with a thigh injury. Expect Vit Krejci to fill in the starting small forward role — averaging just 5.6 points per game.

Key stat: The Raps are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.

Quick picks

Young over 26.5 points (-129): Young has been a dog over the past six weeks, and I mean that in the best way possible.

In his past 15 games, Young has averaged 26.5 points while shooting over 41% from deep. He’s also added 10.7 assists over that stretch.

The former Oklahoma Sooner torched the Raps the last time they played on Dec. 29. He went 10-of-21 from the field, 7-of-13 from three, and made all seven free-throw attempts for 34 points.

Toronto also allows the fifth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.69), according to Betting Pros.

Johnson under 21.5 (-124): Johnson is averaging just 14 points in his last three games since missing time with a shoulder injury, shooting below 40.0% in each contest.

I’m surprised his points line is this high considering he hasn’t cleared this mark since Dec. 28 and is averaging 19.3 points on the year.

Toronto allows the seventh-most PPG to small forwards but has held Johnson under this mark in three straight games.

In those contests, he averaged just 14.6 points PPG.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Panthers vs. Kings picks and predictions Jan. 22: Bet on Fiala to put up shots, and fade Bennett

Panthers vs. Kings picks

The Los Angeles Kings host the Florida Panthers on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles aims for its first home win since Jan. 4 as it takes on the reigning Cup champion Florida Panthers. With these two strong defensive teams, I’m backing a low-scoring game. I also have prop plays on Kevin Fiala and Sam Bennett.

Check out my Panthers vs. Kings picks for Jan. 22.

Panthers vs. Kings picks

Go to full NHL betting markets

Best bet: Fiala over 2.5 shots (-130)

This was my best bet on Monday this week when the Kings faced the Penguins. Fiala delivered then, producing five shots in a 5-1 loss. And while the Panthers pose a bigger threat defensively than Pittsburgh, I’m still backing the Swiss native.

Fiala has cleared this mark in six straight games, including 15 shots over his last two games.

The Kings haven’t won at Crypto.com Arena in over two weeks so I expect them to come out firing in a big measuring stick game against the defending champs.

Key stat: Fiala is averaging five shots per game over his last six contests.

Quick picks

Under 5.5 goals (-109): Last season, these teams met twice and the under hit both times.

The Kings, once again, are one of the strongest defensive teams in the NHL:

  • No. 3 in goals allowed/game (2.48)
  • No. 1 in shots allowed/game (24.9)
  • T6th in penalty kill (82.6%)

Both Panthers goalies have looked sharp recently. Sergei Bobrovsky recorded a 28-save win against the Anaheim Ducks Tuesday. His backup Spencer Knight, who posted a 34-save shutout on Jan. 18 and has won his past three starts, is expected to be in the crease Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Kings goaltender Darcy Kuemper enters Wednesday’s contest with an impressive 2.10 goals against average and a .920 save percentage.

Bennett under 0.5 points (-148): Bennett snapped a 20-game goal drought in Anaheim Tuesday. Prior to that, Bennett had just one point in his past 14 games.

Since 2022, Bennett has recorded just one point in his five games versus the Kings.

Picks made at 4:20 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.

Maple Leafs props vs. Blue Jackets Jan. 22: Bet on Matthews to stay hot as a goalscorer

Maple Leafs props

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto aims to extend its win streak to four and Columbus hopes to get back on track after back-to-back losses. I’m backing Auston Matthews to light the lamp tonight while fading Mitch Marner’s shots prop.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Blue Jackets for Jan. 22.

Maple Leafs props vs. Blue Jackets

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Matthews to score (-130)

Matthews has been on a stellar run since returning from his upper body injury on Jan. 4.

He’s racked up eight goals and 14 points in nine games post-injury. He’s also posted an ungodly 29.6% shooting percentage over that stretch, which is something I’ve never seen before.

Obviously, that figure isn’t sustainable over time, but I’m getting behind the hot steak in this matchup.

Elvis Merzlikins is the confirmed starter for Columbus, and he’s struggling this season.

  • 42nd in GAA (3.06) minimum 16 starts
  • 43rd in SV % (.890) – minimum 16 starts

The Jackets allow the fifth-most goals per game in the NHL (3.34), and the Maple Leafs captain has had their number his whole career.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner has 22 points in 16 career games against Columbus.

Key stat: Since 2021, Matthews has scored 10 goals in eight matchups versus the Blue Jackets.

Quick pick

Marner under 2.5 shots (-150): Marner is on pace to surpass his career-best point total (99) from two seasons ago.

He’s also just for assists and seven points behind Nathan MacKinnon, who leads the NHL in both categories.

Marner’s shooting percentage is around his 13.0% career average, but the Markham native isn’t shooting as much overall.

He’s finished below 2.5 shots in eight straight games and 11 of the last 12 — despite 18 points over that stretch.

It’s clear he’s taken his playmaking to another level. Playing on a line with Matthews, I figure he’s primarily operating with a pass-first mindset.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.

Maple Leafs props vs. Blue Jackets Jan. 22: Bet on Matthews to stay hot as a goalscorer

Maple Leafs props

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto aims to extend its win streak to four and Columbus hopes to get back on track after back-to-back losses. I’m backing Auston Matthews to light the lamp tonight while fading Mitch Marner’s shots prop.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Blue Jackets for Jan. 22.

Maple Leafs props vs. Blue Jackets

Embed: #107147

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Matthews to score (-132)

Matthews has been on a stellar run since returning from his upper body injury on Jan. 4.

He’s racked up eight goals and 14 points in nine games post-injury. He’s also posted an ungodly 29.6% shooting percentage over that stretch, which is something I’ve never seen before.

Obviously, that figure isn’t sustainable over time, but I’m getting behind the hot steak in this matchup.

Elvis Merzlikins is the confirmed starter for Columbus, and he’s struggling this season.

  • 42nd in GAA (3.06) minimum 16 starts
  • 43rd in SV % (.890) – minimum 16 starts

The Jackets allow the fifth-most goals per game in the NHL (3.34), and the Maple Leafs captain has had their number his whole career.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner has 22 points in 16 career games against Columbus.

Key stat: Since 2021, Matthews has scored 10 goals in eight matchups versus the Blue Jackets.

Quick pick

Marner under 2.5 shots (-157): Marner is on pace to surpass his career-best point total (99) from two seasons ago.

He’s also just for assists and seven points behind Nathan MacKinnon, who leads the NHL in both categories.

Marner’s shooting percentage is around his 13.0% career average, but the Markham native isn’t shooting as much overall.

He’s finished below 2.5 shots in eight straight games and 11 of the last 12 — despite 18 points over that stretch.

It’s clear he’s taken his playmaking to another level. Playing on a line with Matthews, I figure he’s primarily operating with a pass-first mindset.

Picks made at 2:05 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 22: Bet on Ehlers, fade Hamilton

NHL prop picks

Four games are on tap for the NHL’s Wednesday night slate.

The pregame narrative: Two teams with Stanley Cup aspirations square off in Denver, where I’m backing Nikolaj Ehlers to notch a point for the Winnipeg Jets. I also have a fade on New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 22.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Hamilton under 2.5 shots (-125)

Hamilton’s offensive numbers are down across the board this season.

Two years removed from his 74-point campaign, Hamilton is on pace for just 50 points this year.

He’s taking fewer shots and his 4.3% shooting percentage is a career low, after back-to-back seasons with a shooting percentage of 8.0% or greater.

Hamilton’s regression is the backbone of this pick, but the matchup plays a role, too.

Boston still has a stifling defence that takes away time and space. Four of its six starting defencemen are 6-foot-3 or taller.

Key stat: This bet has cashed in six straight games.

Quick pick

Ehlers over 0.5 points (-154): Ehlers has been humming lately, and I want in on the fun.

The Great Dane has 13 points in his last 12 games and is averaging a point per game this season.

He’s also scoring on 14.0% of his shots, which is 2.2 percentage points above than his career average (11.8%).

Ehlers plays on the top unit of the league’s No. 1 power play, which has a 32.1% success rate.

Although Colorado’s goaltending issue has improved with the addition of Mackenzie Blackwood, it still ranks toward the bottom of the NHL at 3.1 goals allowed per game (19th).

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 22: Bet on Ehlers, fade Geekie and Hamilton

NHL prop picks

Four games are on tap for the NHL’s Wednesday night slate.

The pregame narrative: Two teams with Stanley Cup aspirations square off in Denver, where I’m backing Nikolaj Ehlers to notch a point for the Winnipeg Jets. I also have fades on Boston’s Morgan Geekie and New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 22.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #107110

Best bet: Geekie under 0.5 points (-155)

Geekie has been a nice depth piece for the Bruins’ forward group.

Since coming over from the Seattle Kraken, he’s recorded 61 points in 119 games for the B’s.

I mention those numbers because that isn’t top-line production, even though that’s where he currently plays in the lineup.

You can get this price on Geekie mainly because of his linemates, David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. But Geekie only plays a little over 15:00 a night and skates on Boston’s No. 2 power-play unit.

New Jersey ranks in the top 10 in nearly every defensive category. This isn’t exactly the slump-busting opponent Geekie is looking for:

  • 5th in goals allowed/game (2.53)
  • 3rd in shots allowed/game (25.6)
  • 8th in penalty kill (82.1%)

Key stat: Geekie has recorded just two points in seven career games versus the Devils.

Quick picks

Hamilton under 2.5 shots (-114): Hamilton’s offensive numbers are down across the board this season.

Two years removed from his 74-point campaign, Hamilton is on pace for just 50 points this year.

He’s taking fewer shots and his 4.3% shooting percentage is a career low, after back-to-back seasons with a shooting percentage of 8.0% or greater.

Hamilton’s regression is the backbone of this pick, but the matchup plays a role, too.

Boston still has a stifling defence that takes away time and space. Four of its six starting defencemen are 6-foot-3 or taller.

This bet has cashed in six straight games.

Ehlers over 0.5 points (-157): Ehlers has been humming lately, and I want in on the fun.

The Great Dane has 13 points in his last 12 games and is averaging a point per game this season.

He’s also scoring on 14.0% of his shots, which is 2.2 percentage points above than his career average (11.8%).

Ehlers plays on the top unit of the league’s No. 1 power play, which has a 32.1% success rate.

Although Colorado’s goaltending issue has improved with the addition of Mackenzie Blackwood, it still ranks toward the bottom of the NHL at 3.1 goals allowed per game (19th).

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 01/22/2025.

Capitals vs. Oilers prop picks Jan. 21: Expect Draisaitl to step up in McDavid’s absence

NHL team and player stats leaders at NorthStar Bets. See leaders in key categories including goals, points, assists, shots and PP%.

The Edmonton Oilers host the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Two powerhouses square off in Western Canada tonight, as Washington hopes to extend its win streak to five games. I’m backing Leon Draisaitl to score a point on the power play while fading Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael.

Check out my Capitals vs. Oilers props for Jan. 21.

Capitals vs. Oilers prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Draisaitl over 0.5 power-play points (+130)

Edmonton has been rolling in the new year, picking up seven wins in nine games. Draisaitl paces the Oilers with 13 points over that stretch.

After a sluggish start to the season, Edmonton’s offence has been one of the league’s best:

  • 7th in goals/game: 3.28
  • 2nd in shots/game: 31.9
  • 7th in power-play percentage: 24.6%

The two-headed monster runs the typical Oilers power play in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. With McDavid’s suspension, Draisaitl will be the focal point of Edmonton’s No. 1 unit.

The German scored on the man-advantage on Saturday’s 3-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks.

The Capitals have a bit of a chippy side to them this season. They average over eight penalty minutes per game.

Key stat: Draisaitl has 59 points in 57 career games without McDavid.

Quick picks

McMichael under 1.5 shots (-118): Dissimilarly to previous Oilers seasons, Kris Knoblauch has turned the Oilers into one of the league’s best defensive teams to go with their high-powered offence.

  • T6th goals allowed/game (2.74)
  • 5th in shots allowed/game (26.4)
  • 2nd in expected goals against per 60 (2.65), per Natural Stat Trick

Despite the Capitals’ offensive success this season, they only average 27.4 shots per game (T21st in NHL).

McMichael is having a breakout year, already setting a new career high in points (34) just over halfway through the campaign.

I imagine playing alongside one of the best goal-scorers of all time gives McMichael a more pass-first mindset, as opposed to feeling the urge to shoot for himself.

This bet has cashed in five straight games and in seven of the last eight.

Wilson under 0.5 points (-138): Washington’s spark plug might need to recharge tonight.

Wilson has just two points in his last six games despite leading all Caps forwards with 18:54 of ice time per game.

The Toronto native is having a solid bounce-back campaign from just 35 points and a -19 rating last year. But it’s not a great matchup for him to find the scoresheet.

I anticipate Wilson playing more of an enforcer role, as Edmonton should be playing with a little extra passion following the suspension of its captain.

Picks made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 01/21/2025.

Capitals vs. Oilers prop picks Jan. 21: Expect Draisaitl to step up in McDavid’s absence

NHL team and player stats leaders at NorthStar Bets. See leaders in key categories including goals, points, assists, shots and PP%.

The Edmonton Oilers host the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Two powerhouses square off in Western Canada tonight, as Washington hopes to extend its win streak to five games. I’m backing Leon Draisaitl to score a point on the power play while fading Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael.

Check out my Capitals vs. Oilers props for Jan. 21.

Capitals vs. Oilers prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #107071

Best bet: Draisaitl over 0.5 power-play points (+140)

Edmonton has been rolling in the new year, picking up seven wins in nine games. Draisaitl paces the Oilers with 13 points over that stretch.

After a sluggish start to the season, Edmonton’s offence has been one of the league’s best:

  • 7th in goals/game: 3.28
  • 2nd in shots/game: 31.9
  • 7th in power-play percentage: 24.6%

The two-headed monster runs the typical Oilers power play in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. With McDavid’s suspension, Draisaitl will be the focal point of Edmonton’s No. 1 unit.

The German scored on the man-advantage on Saturday’s 3-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks.

The Capitals have a bit of a chippy side to them this season. They average over eight penalty minutes per game.

Key stat: Draisaitl has 59 points in 57 career games without McDavid.

Quick picks

McMichael under 1.5 shots (-104): Dissimilarly to previous Oilers seasons, Kris Knoblauch has turned the Oilers into one of the league’s best defensive teams to go with their high-powered offence.

  • T6th goals allowed/game (2.74)
  • 5th in shots allowed/game (26.4)
  • 2nd in expected goals against per 60 (2.65), per Natural Stat Trick

Despite the Capitals’ offensive success this season, they only average 27.4 shots per game (T21st in NHL).

McMichael is having a breakout year, already setting a new career high in points (34) just over halfway through the campaign.

I imagine playing alongside one of the best goal-scorers of all time gives McMichael a more pass-first mindset, as opposed to feeling the urge to shoot for himself.

This bet has cashed in five straight games and in seven of the last eight.

Wilson under 0.5 points (-136): Washington’s spark plug might need to recharge tonight.

Wilson has just two points in his last six games despite leading all Caps forwards with 18:54 of ice time per game.

The Toronto native is having a solid bounce-back campaign from just 35 points and a -19 rating last year. But it’s not a great matchup for him to find the scoresheet.

I anticipate Wilson playing more of an enforcer role, as Edmonton should be playing with a little extra passion following the suspension of its captain.

Picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET on 01/21/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 21: Bet on Forsberg, Kucherov and Kane on Tuesday night

NHL prop picks

Eight games are on tap for Tuesday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: The San Jose Sharks head into Nashville as one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. I’m backing Predators forward Filip Forsberg’s shots prop along with Nikita Kucherov and Patrick Kane.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 21.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Forsberg over 3.5 shots (-134)

Forsberg has been a rock for Nashville since his rookie season.

He led the team in points last year (94) and is well on his way again this year, pacing the Preds with 42 points in 45 games.

One thing that’s decreased this season has been his shooting percentage.

Forsberg has only gone below 10.0% once in his career — back in 2020-21 (9.3%) — and is threatening to again this year (9.5%).

The percentage has dipped, but the amount of shots has not. He’s averaging 3.51 shots per game this year, which is well above his 3.14 career average from the 12 years prior.

The Swede has cleared this mark in four of the last five games, including 15 shots in his last two contests.

Key stat: The Sharks are tied for 31st in shots allowed per game (32.2).

Quick picks

Kucherov over 0.5 power-play points (+100): I’ve never seen a power-play point line at minus odds, but being that it’s Kucherov, it makes sense.

Kucherov is a wizard on the power play. In my opinion, he snaps the puck around with finesse and speed better than anyone in the NHL. It’s a pleasure to watch.

The Russian Rifle has picked three power-play points in the last three games and leads the Tampa Bay Lightning with 27 power-play points.

Montreal’s Sam Montembeault gets the start for the Habs, which is great news for the Lightning. Tampa avoids one of the hottest goaltenders in the NHL in Jakub Dobes (5-0-0, 1.55 GAA).

Kucherov has 43 career points against the Canadiens in 37 games.

Kane over 0.5 points (-125): After a slow start to the campaign Kane has come on strong.

Sixteen of his 30 points have come in the last 11 games. Before that, he suffered a nine-game pointless streak.

Kane plays on an all-American line with Andrew Copp and Alex DeBrincat that has picked up chemistry in the past few weeks.

The Red Wings take on the Philadelphia Flyers who allow the fifth-most goals per game (3.36) and own the 20th-ranked penalty kill.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 01/21/2025.