Christian Larsen

Rockets vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions Dec. 5: Back Houston to win, Hield from deep at +275

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

The Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets in Thursday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: I believe a short-handed Golden State team will lose its sixth straight game. Additional prop bets on Buddy Hield and Jalen Green round out this +275 wager.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 5.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Rockets moneyline + Buddy Hield over 2.5 threes + Jalen Green over 0.5 steals (+275)

Rockets moneyline (-162): This is a revenge spot for the Rockets, who suffered a 127-121 overtime loss to the Warriors earlier in the season.

Golden State is on a five-game losing streak. Without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, I believe their losing woes continue against an improving Rockets team.

Golden State is 87-148 all-time without Curry. The situation worsens without the presence of Green, whose versatility and defensive prowess would be the X-factor in this matchup.

Houston is winless in its last 14 games against the Warriors, so laying a juicy moneyline price could be discomforting. However, these two teams are trending in opposite directions.

The Rockets are 6-0 after a loss this season.

After a nine-point defeat to the Kings on Tuesday, Ime Udoka’s team will be determined to get back on track.

SGP legs

Hield over 2.5 threes (-190): In Curry’s absence, the Warriors will depend on Hield to produce from behind the arc.

In the four games without Curry, he has drained at least three shots from distance:

  • Oct. 29 vs. Pelicans: 7-for-11 from three.
  • Oct. 30 vs. Pelicans: 4-for-12 from three.
  • Nov. 2 at Rockets: 6-for-10 from three.
  • Nov. 27 vs. Thunder: 5-for-8 from three.

Houston’s strong defence doesn’t present the best matchup for the veteran guard, who has shown to be streaky. However, the heavy shot volume will make up for his inconsistencies.

This line feels like a layup.

Green over 0.5 steals (-190): Green is slowly evolving into a solid defender.

The 22-year-old guard has recorded a steal in seven of the last 10 games.

Curry is the Warriors’ primary ball handler. Without him and Draymond creating plays, the team is prone to a few more turnovers.

This opens up plenty of minutes for Brandin Podziemski, who has seen his turnover rate increase when tasked to create his own offence.

This is a favourable matchup for Green to rack up defensive stats.

Picks made at 12:08 p.m. on 12/04/24.

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Los Angeles Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls MLS Cup picks: Back L.A, goals in second-half

MLS Cup picks

The Los Angeles Galaxy will make their 10th MLS Cup Final appearance when they host the New York Red Bulls on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: The Galaxy have been dominant on their path to the Finals. I expect them to defeat the Red Bulls in 90 minutes with most of the scoring taking place in the second half.

Check out my MLS Cup picks.

MLS Cup picks

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Best Bet: Los Angeles Galaxy moneyline (-118)

The Galaxy enter the final in excellent form, scoring 16 goals and conceding just three. I expect them to take care of business against a side that has been fortunate just to get there.

Greg Vanney’s L.A. squad features a dangerous attacking trio in Dejan Joveljic, Gabriel Pec, and Joseph Paintsil. They combined for 41 goals in the regular season.

The Galaxy will be without Ricard Puig, who suffered a torn ACL in last week’s win. The former Barcelona player has been the driving force in Galaxy’s midfield, but his absence is already baked into this line.

In his place, Marco Reus brings a wealth of big-match experience. He spent several years with Bundesliga’s Borussia Dortmund and the German national team.

Elsewhere, Diego Fagundez can slot in the attacking midfielder role while defensive midfielders Gaston Brugman and Marco Delgado are solid options in positive gameplay.

As for New York, the Red Bulls arrive at the big dance thanks to their defence, and perhaps some good fortune, too.

In their 2-0 victory over NYCFC, they were outpossessed (71-to-29 percent) and allowed 2.80 expected goals against on 25 shots. Against Orlando City, they were limited to a single shot on target, which came from a set-piece header off Andres Reyes.

Key stat: The Galaxy own the best home record in MLS at 13-3-1. Their lone defeat came back in July against LAFC.

Quick pick

Over 1.5 total goals – 2nd half (-125): If the playoffs thus far are any indication, the Final could feature an action-packed second half:

  • 66 percent (10 of 15) of the Galaxy’s playoff goals have come in the second half.
  • 63 percent (five of eight) of the Red Bulls’ playoff goals have been after half-time.

This match-up has the makings of one packed with late drama as the pressure intensifies.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 12/04/24.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls MLS Cup picks: Back L.A, goals in second-half

MLS Cup picks

The Los Angeles Galaxy will make their 10th MLS Cup Final appearance when they host the New York Red Bulls on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: The Galaxy have been dominant on their path to the Finals. I expect them to defeat the Red Bulls in 90 minutes with most of the scoring taking place in the second half.

Check out my MLS Cup picks.

MLS Cup picks

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Best Bet: Los Angeles Galaxy moneyline (-122)

The Galaxy enter the final in excellent form, scoring 16 goals and conceding just three. I expect them to take care of business against a side that has been fortunate just to get there.

Greg Vanney’s L.A. squad features a dangerous attacking trio in Dejan Joveljic, Gabriel Pec, and Joseph Paintsil. They combined for 41 goals in the regular season.

The Galaxy will be without Ricard Puig, who suffered a torn ACL in last week’s win. The former Barcelona player has been the driving force in Galaxy’s midfield, but his absence is already baked into this line.

In his place, Marco Reus brings a wealth of big-match experience after several years with Bundesliga’s Borussia Dortmund and the German national team.

Elsewhere, Diego Fagundez can slot in the attacking midfielder role while defensive midfielders Gaston Brugman and Marco Delgado are solid options in positive gameplay.

As for New York, the Red Bulls arrive at the big dance thanks to their defence, and perhaps some good fortune, too.

In their 2-0 victory over NYCFC, they were outpossessed (71-to-29 percent) and allowed 2.80 expected goals against on 25 shots. Against Orlando City, they were limited to a single shot on target, which came from a set-piece header off Andres Reyes.

Key stat: The Galaxy own the best home record in MLS at 13-3-1, with their lone defeat coming back in July against LAFC.

Quick pick

Over 1.5 total goals – 2nd half (-121): If the playoffs thus far are any indication, the Final could feature an action-packed second half:

  • 66 percent (10 of 15) of the Galaxy’s playoff goals have come in the second half.
  • 63 percent (five of eight) of the Red Bulls’ playoff goals have been after half-time.

This match-up has the makings of one packed with late drama as the pressure intensifies.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 12/04/24.

Packers vs. Lions Week 14 TNF prop picks: Target Jayden Reed, Jameson Williams in primetime matchup

Packers vs. Lions prop picks.

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions clash in a crucial divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay will need to throw the ball to keep up with Detroit and I expect Jayden Reed to have a big game. On the opposite side, Jameson Williams has value to get catches.

Check out my Packers vs. Lions prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 6.

Packers vs. Lions prop picks

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Best Bet: Reed over 48.5 receiving yards (-120)

Reed has been quiet in recent games, but the Packers led for large chunks of them.

Green Bay is a 3.5-point underdog and Jordan Love has opted to sling the ball to his most reliable downfield threat in close games.

Reed is averaging above this mark in close games:

  • Final margin of 0-7 points: 3.3 rec, 64.6 yards per game.
  • Final margin of 8-14 points: 4 rec, 68.5 yards per game.
  • Final margin of 15+ points: 4.3 rec, 34.7 yards per game.

It’s also worth noting that Reed caught five passes for 113 yards against the Lions in Week 9.

It can be argued that Detroit hasn’t faced an explosive offence since it visited Green Bay in November when it allowed 273 yards through the air.

Opposing wide receivers have had their way against the Lions’ secondary. The unit is allowing 182.6 yards per game to WRs which is the second-most in the NFL, per CBS Sports.

Detroit’s pass rush took another blow with Malcolm Rodriguez now on the injured reverse, joining Alex Anzalone and Aidan Hutchison. This should give Love more time to scan and launch the ball downfield.

Weather also won’t be a factor as this game takes place indoors.

Key stat: Reed has 50-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games vs. teams in the bottom 10 for receiving yards allowed to WRs.

Quick pick

Jameson Williams over 3.5 receptions (-120): Williams has been a reliable weapon for Jared Goff all season.

He has caught four or more passes in his last three games and has seen a steady target share.

The wideout has flourished on home turf this season.

  • Home averages: 7.0 targets, 4.2 receptions, 86.4 receiving yards
  • Road averages: 4.0 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.6 receiving yards

Green Bay is above-average at stopping the run, allowing just 4.2 yards per rush (seventh-best in the NFL).

With the division at stake and a potential for a shootout, Goff should continue to target his best deep threat.

I like this play even more if Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander (knee, questionable) misses this game.

Picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 12/04/2024.

Packers vs. Lions Week 14 TNF prop picks: Target Jayden Reed, Jameson Williams in primetime matchup

Packers vs. Lions prop picks.

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions clash in a crucial divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay will need to throw the ball to keep up with Detroit and I expect Jayden Reed to have a big game. On the opposite side, Jameson Williams has value to get catches.

Check out my Packers vs. Lions prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 6.

Packers vs. Lions prop picks

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Best Bet: Reed over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)

Reed has been quiet in recent games, but the Packers led for large chunks of them.

Green Bay is a 3.5-point underdog and Jordan Love has opted to sling the ball to his most reliable downfield threat in close games.

Reed is averaging above this mark in close games:

  • Final margin of 0-7 points: 3.3 rec, 64.6 yards per game.
  • Final margin of 8-14 points: 4 rec, 68.5 yards per game.
  • Final margin of 15+ points: 4.3 rec, 34.7 yards per game.

It’s also worth noting that Reed caught five passes for 113 yards against the Lions in Week 9.

It can be argued that Detroit hasn’t faced an explosive offence since it visited Green Bay in November when it allowed 273 yards through the air.

Opposing wide receivers have had their way against the Lions’ secondary. The unit is allowing 182.6 yards per game to WRs which is the second-most in the NFL, per CBS Sports.

Detroit’s pass rush took another blow with Malcolm Rodriguez now on the injured reverse, joining Alex Anzalone and Aidan Hutchison. This should give Love more time to scan and launch the ball downfield.

Weather also won’t be a factor as this game takes place indoors.

Key stat: Reed has 50-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games vs. teams in the bottom 10 for receiving yards allowed to WRs.

Quick pick

Jameson Williams over 3.5 receptions (-103): Williams has been a reliable weapon for Jared Goff all season.

He has caught four or more passes in his last three games and has seen a steady target share.

The wideout has flourished on home turf this season.

  • Home averages: 7.0 targets, 4.2 receptions, 86.4 receiving yards
  • Road averages: 4.0 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.6 receiving yards

Green Bay is above-average at stopping the run, allowing just 4.2 yards per rush (seventh-best in the NFL).

With the division at stake and a potential for a shootout, Goff should continue to target his best deep threat.

I like this play even more if Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander (knee, questionable) misses this game.

Picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 12/04/2024.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls MLS Cup odds: L.A. is favoured to claim the title

MLS Cup odds

Two teams on opposite coastlines battle for the MLS Cup on Saturday.

The latest: The Los Angeles Galaxy dominated the Western Conference playoffs and now host the Eastern-champion New York Red Bulls in the MLS Cup Final. The Galaxy are heavy favourites at –335 to win the MLS Cup. Their opponents, the Red Bulls are +235 underdogs.

Here are the latest MLS Cup odds.

MLS Cup odds

Check out the latest odds to win the MLS Cup. Click linked odds to add selection to betslip.

TeamOdds (Dec. 3)
Los Angeles Galaxy-335
New York Red Bulls+235

MLS Cup odds as of 2:54 p.m. ET on 12/3/2024.

Best MLS Cup odds

The favourite: Los Angeles Galaxy (-335)

Los Angeles finished second in the Western Conference with 64 points and a 19-7-8 record.

Grey Vanney’s attacking trio is comprised of franchise players Dejan Joveljic, Joseph Paintsil and Gabriel Pec who combined for 41 goals in the regular season.

In the summer, the Galaxy signed former German international Marco Reus to give the club a set-piece specialist and an added veteran presence.

The 35-year-old midfielder led Borussia Dortmund to the Champions League final before his move to the MLS.

Another thing worth noting is the squad’s tremendous form at home. The Galaxy sports the league’s best home record at 13-3-1.

The squad has lost former Barcelona midfielder Ricard Puig to a ligament injury sustained in the Western Conference final.

If there’s any weakness here, it’s the defence. The Galaxy allowed a 53.43 non-penalty xG in the season which ranked 23rd in the league.

L.A. is an overwhelming favourite to capture a league-best sixth MLS Cup.

Other MLS Cup choices

The underdog: New York Red Bulls (+235)

New York is the Cinderella story coming out of Major League Soccer.

The Red Bulls finished seventh in the conference table at 47 points with an 11-14-9 record. That makes them the lowest seed ever to feature in the MLS Cup.

They defied the odds by eliminating the reigning champions Columbus Crew, 2-2, via penalty kicks, before recording back-to-back clean sheets over New York City FC and Orlando City to reach the Final.

Lewis Morgan is the club’s best attacking threat. The former Celtic attacker scored 13 goals in the regular season but is scoreless in the playoffs.

His striking partner Dante Vanzier is in great form with two goals in his last three matches. The Belgian forward led the club with 10 assists in the regular season.

Sandro Schwarz’s squad is stout on defence as it sported a 41.28 non-penalty xG in the season — good for second-best in the Eastern Conference.

The Red Bulls don’t travel particularly well as they posted a 4-7-6 record in away matches.

After three straight shocking results, New York cannot be overlooked at an intriguing underdog price.

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EPL Matchday 14 picks and predictions: Back Arsenal, fade Man City

EPL Matchday 14 Picks

Two matches with clubs from Manchester are featured in a rare mid-week matchday in the Premier League.

The pregame narrative: Arsenal is on a rampage and I expect them to continue rolling against Manchester United on Wednesday. Before that, I like Nottingham Forest to keep a struggling Manchester City side within striking distance.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 14 picks.

EPL Matchday 14 picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal -1.25 (-108)

Arsenal is in immaculate form and I want to continue riding the momentum.

The 5-2 stomping of West Ham saw five different Gunners score in the first half, including two penalties and a header from a corner kick.

Captain Martin Odegaard is fully healthy, and his reinsertion into the starting 11 has had a big impact on both ends of the pitch.

Since April, Arsenal has been undefeated when the Norwegian midfielder is in the lineup.

His presence gives Bukayo Saka the freedom to find spaces on the flanks and take on opposing backs in one-on-one situations.

This presents problems for a Manchester United team that is still adjusting to a new system.

Ruben Amorim’s former side, Sporting Lisbon, suffered a 5-1 beatdown to Arsenal in the Champions League just a few weeks ago. The Gunners ran circles all over the same 3-4-2-1 formation and scored five times on 3.89 expected goals while creating five big chances.

A 4-0 victory against Everton on Sunday was Amorim’s first at Old Trafford. Despite netting four goals, they generated just 1.07 expected goals — per FotMob — and benefitted from a couple of clumsy errors.

United be without key players Kobbie Mainoo and centre-back Lisandro Martinez for this match.

The Gunners are seemingly back in form and look to narrow the nine-point gap from the top spot with a comfortable victory over the Red Devils.

Key stat: Arsenal won its last three matches overall with a margin of three or more goals.

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest +1.5 (-130): Manchester City are winless in its last seven games in all competitions as the reigning English champions were lifeless in its 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Sunday.

The Citizens are getting exposed without Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, who was the driving force of the entire squad.

Without him, City’s midfield has looked disjointed and is susceptible to more final-third box entries and counterattacks.

Mateo Kovacic and John Stones, both with defensive midfield experience, are sidelined for Wednesday’s match with injuries.

In its last four league matches, City has conceded 10 goals while scoring just two.

Nottingham Forest, once a relegation contender, has since exceeded expectations by landing in the top half of the table with 22 points through 13 matches.

Earlier in the season, the Tricky Trees brought Liverpool to its lone defeat of the season and held formidable foes Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton to draws.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad is great at limiting chances by clogging the central areas of the pitch and disrupting the opposition.

Forest owns the second-lowest non-penalty xG in the Premier League (12.39), according to theanalyst.com.

With a respectable 3-2-1 away record this season, Forest can feel they can make it a competitive game at the Etihad.

Perhaps this is where City snaps its winless streak, but I don’t expect it to come by a multi-goal margin.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 12/03/24.

EPL Matchday 14 picks and predictions: Back Arsenal, fade Man City

EPL Matchday 14 Picks

Two matches with clubs from Manchester are featured in a rare mid-week matchday in the Premier League.

The pregame narrative: Arsenal is on a rampage and I expect them to continue rolling against Manchester United on Wednesday. Before that, I like Nottingham Forest to keep a struggling Manchester City side within striking distance.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 14 picks.

EPL Matchday 14 picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal -1.25 (-104)

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Arsenal is in immaculate form and I want to continue riding the momentum.

The 5-2 stomping of West Ham saw five different Gunners score in the first half, including two penalties and a header from a corner kick.

Captain Martin Odegaard is fully healthy, and his reinsertion into the starting 11 has had a big impact on both ends of the pitch.

Since April, Arsenal has been undefeated when the Norwegian midfielder is in the lineup.

His presence gives Bukayo Saka the freedom to find spaces on the flanks and take on opposing backs in one-on-one situations.

This presents problems for a Manchester United team that is still adjusting to a new system.

Ruben Amorim’s former side, Sporting Lisbon, suffered a 5-1 beatdown to Arsenal in the Champions League just a few weeks ago. The Gunners ran circles all over the same 3-4-2-1 formation and scored five times on 3.89 expected goals while creating five big chances.

A 4-0 victory against Everton on Sunday was Amorim’s first at Old Trafford. Despite netting four goals, they generated just 1.07 expected goals — per FotMob — and benefitted from a couple of clumsy errors.

United be without key players Kobbie Mainoo and centre-back Lisandro Martinez for this match.

The Gunners are seemingly back in form and look to narrow the nine-point gap from the top spot with a comfortable victory over the Red Devils.

Key stat: Arsenal won its last three matches overall with a margin of three or more goals.

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest +1.5 (-121): Manchester City are winless in its last seven games in all competitions as the reigning English champions were lifeless in its 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Sunday.

The Citizens are getting exposed without Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, who was the driving force of the entire squad.

Without him, City’s midfield has looked disjointed and is susceptible to more final-third box entries and counterattacks.

Mateo Kovacic and John Stones, both with defensive midfield experience, are sidelined for Wednesday’s match with injuries.

In its last four league matches, City has conceded 10 goals while scoring just two.

Nottingham Forest, once a relegation contender, has since exceeded expectations by landing in the top half of the table with 22 points through 13 matches.

Earlier in the season, the Tricky Trees brought Liverpool to its lone defeat of the season and held formidable foes Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton to draws.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad is great at limiting chances by clogging the central areas of the pitch and disrupting the opposition.

Forest owns the second-lowest non-penalty xG in the Premier League (12.39), according to theanalyst.com.

With a respectable 3-2-1 away record this season, Forest can feel they can make it a competitive game at the Etihad.

Perhaps this is where City snaps its winless streak, but I don’t expect it to come by a multi-goal margin.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 12/03/24.

Liverpool vs. Man City same-game parlay predictions Dec. 1: Bet on Foden to be effective, Salah to get on scoresheet in +270 ticket

Liverpool vs. Manchester City predictions

The top clubs in the Premier League clash in a mouth-watering contest on Sunday, as red-hot Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield.

The pregame narrative: Liverpool has scored multiple goals in each of its last seven matches, so I am confident in that happening against a shaky defence. To round out the ticket, I’m adding player props on Mohamed Salah and Phil Foden.

Check out my Liverpool vs. Manchester City same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 1.

Liverpool vs. Manchester City predictions

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Parlay: Liverpool over 1.5 goals + Salah to score or assist + Foden over 1.5 shots (+270)

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Liverpool over 1.5 goals (-136): Liverpool has the attacking firepower to puncture the best defences in Europe. It will be determined to keep the offence flowing against its arch-rival at home.

The Reds have scored multiple goals in 10 of 12 league matches. Meanwhile, Manchester City has conceded two or more in each of its last six games — including three to Feyenoord on Tuesday.

Pep Guardiola will be compelled to adjust his tactics to limit scoring chances, but without Rodri in midfield, there is little defensive stability in the central areas.

A multi-goal performance would help Liverpool secure a win and stifle its rival’s chances of defending the crown.

SGP legs

Salah to score or assist (-127): Mohamed Salah has been a thorn in the sides of Manchester City defenders in recent years and this match should be no different.

He’s scored or assisted in seven of his last eight matches against Manchester City, dating back to 2020.

Lately, City has struggled to contain speedy wingers like Salah from dribbling the ball into the 18-yard box.

Right-back Josko Gvardiol has been a defensive liability in City’s backline and will see plenty of the Egyptian winger.

Salah has the most goal contributions (16) in the Premier League, four ahead of Erling Haaland, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka who are all tied for second.

He will be eager to extend his scoring streak to six games while leaving the defending champs in the dust.

Foden over 1.5 shots (-180): The Citizens cannot rely on Erling Haaland to score all the goals so Phil Foden has to step up here.

Last season, Foden scored 19 goals for City but is still searching for his first this season.

Liverpool’s backline took a big hit as Ibrahima Konaté will miss several weeks with an injury. His absence should free up space for Foden to maneuver in the box.

With Manchester City trailing in recent matches, Foden’s shot tally has spiked to an average of 3.0 shots in his last four league matches.

I expect the British superstar to continue peppering goalies with City’s title hopes in danger.

Picks made at 1:04 p.m. on 11/29/24.

EPL Matchday 13 picks and predictions: Back Bournemouth, fade Man United

EPL Matchday 13 picks

Three clubs in the bottom half of the table are featured in my EPL Matchday 13 picks.

The pregame narrative: Bournemouth has lost its last two matches but I expect it to bounce back against Wolverhampton this Saturday. On Sunday, I like Everton to steal a point against a Manchester United side adapting to a new system.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 13 picks.

EPL Matchday 13 picks

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Best Bet: Bournemouth draw no bet (-127)

Embed: #101892

I believe there is value in picking the Cherries to take care of business at Wolverhampton.

Bournemouth suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat to red-hot Brighton in its recent fixture but pulled off stunning upsets against Arsenal and Manchester City at home to long ago.

Wolves, luckily, are nowhere near the same tier as those sides.

They come off an impressive 4-1 win at Fulham but were winless in their first 10 matches.

Wolves struggle to defend set pieces, conceding a league-worst nine goals on set-piece play. Bournemouth has whipped in the third-most crosses (274) and has scored four goals on set pieces.

Antoine Semenyo is suspended after picking up a fifth yellow card last weekend but the Cherries have quality forwards in Evanilson and Marcus Tavernier alongside Lewis Cook in the midfield.

Off consecutive losses, Andoni Iraola’s men should be heavily motivated to grab points.

Key stat: In its last meeting with Wolverhampton, Bournemouth secured a 1-0 victory at Molineaux Stadium despite falling to 10 men in the final 21 minutes.

Quick pick

Everton +1 (-107): I will step in front of the “new manager bump” and bet against Manchester United.

In Ruben Amorim’s debut as United manager, the team generated a measly 0.80 expected goals (xG) in the 1-1 draw against bottom-feeder Ipswich Town.

It lost the xG battle and was outshot 6-to-4.

The transition from Erik ten Hag’s 4-2-3-1 setup to Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 is a drastic one.

United do not possess the wing-backs capable of defending in a low block and carrying the ball out in transition.

Everton struggles to create scoring chances, but it often keeps its matches tight and low-scoring.

Everton has not lost by more than a goal since the 4-0 defeat at Tottenham on Aug. 24, drawing Newcastle, Fulham and Brentford in recent months.

Brentford to win first half (+116): The Bees are an ultra-aggressive squad who love to attack early.

Brentford owns the league’s best home record (5-1-0) and the full-time odds reflect that at -141, so I’ll take a different approach.

Its 14 first-half goals are tied with Manchester City for the league lead and Leicester sports the worst first-half goal differential (-8).

The Bees have scored 16 of their 22 goals from open play and Leicester has allowed the second-most open-play goals (17) in the Premiership

The Foxes sacked manager Steve Cooper on Sunday and appointed Ruud van Nisterooy on Wednesday. However, the club is rolling with first-team coach Ben Dawson for this match.

To fade a relegation-contending team without a manager at plus-odds, this seems too good to pass on.

Picks made at 11:24 p.m. on 11/28/24.