Christian Larsen, Author at The Boost

EPL Matchday 16 picks and predictions: Bet on Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth to win

I am backing two sides in solid form for this week’s Premier League selections.

The pregame narrative: Crystal Palace is primed to pick up a result when it visits Brighton in a tasty matchup. After that, I expect Bournemouth to push its winning streak at home against under-performers West Ham.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 16 picks.

EPL Matchday 16 picks

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Best Bet: Crystal Palace or tie (-118)

Crystal Palace has found its stride and I like it to pick up a result away to Brighton.

After a troublesome start to the campaign, the Eagles are unbeaten in their last four matches with impressive draws off Manchester City (2-2), Newcastle (1-1), and Aston Villa (2-2).

Manager Oliver Glasner has found stability with a squad that added several new pieces in the summer transfer window.

Trevor Chalobah and Maxence Lacroix have emerged as staples in Palace’s backline, building rapport with captain Marc Guehi.

Crystal Palace averages 44% possession and likes to park in a low defensive block, limit spaces and wait for chances to attack in transition.

This hasn’t favoured Brighton, a ball-dominant side that’s struggled to penetrate defences that sit deep:

Brighton possession	Record
50% or more	W1 D5 L3
49% or less	W5 D1 L0

Amid a first managerial campaign with Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler has struggled to gameplan against the counter-attack, allowing 16 shots and four goals from fast breaks (tied for most in the league).

The Seagulls only have won two of their last eight matches in all competitions, which includes dropping points to relegation contenders Wolves (2-2), Southampton (1-1) and Leicester (2-2).

After Glasner took over in February, Crystal Palace ascended from 16th to 10th in the table with a 7-4-3 run and a +15 goal differential.

The Eagles are flying under the radar and there’s value to back them on the double-result market.

Key stat: Brighton hasn’t kept a clean sheet in its last eight matches.

Quick pick

Bournemouth to win (-138): Don’t look now, but Bournemouth have won three straight matches and are soaring up the Premier League table.

A big reason for its recent success is its ultra-aggressive attack.

Bournemouth is generating the second-highest xG (2.06) per game.

It is whipping in the most crosses into the penalty area (averaging 2.53 per game).

This plays in its favour since West Ham is struggling defensively, allowing 1.80 xG per game. The Hammers also allow the third-most crosses into the penalty area (2.40 per game).

Offensively, West Ham is lacking at the striker position with Niclas Fullkurg not in full health and Michail Antonio (broken leg) out for an extended period.

Bournemouth plays better at home, to the tune of a 4-2-1 record, including astonishing wins over Arsenal and Manchester City.

It’s worth noting it has the rest advantage, with West Ham having last played on Monday.

I say pick the Cherries to extend their winning streak at home.

Picks made at 10:53 a.m. on 12/12/24.

EPL Matchday 16 picks and predictions: Bet on Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth to win

I am backing two sides in solid form for this week’s Premier League selections.

The pregame narrative: Crystal Palace is primed to pick up a result when it visits Brighton in a tasty matchup. After that, I expect Bournemouth to extend its winning streak at home against under-performers West Ham.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 16 picks.

EPL Matchday 16 picks

Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Best Bet: Crystal Palace or tie (-107)

Embed: #103324

Crystal Palace has found its stride and I like it to pick up a result away to Brighton.

After a troublesome start to the campaign, the Eagles are unbeaten in their last four matches with impressive draws off Manchester City (2-2), Newcastle (1-1), and Aston Villa (2-2).

Manager Oliver Glasner has found stability with a squad that added several new pieces in the summer transfer window.

Trevor Chalobah and Maxence Lacroix have emerged as staples in Palace’s backline, building rapport with captain Marc Guehi.

Crystal Palace averages 44% possession and likes to park in a low defensive block, limit spaces and wait for chances to attack in transition.

This hasn’t favoured Brighton, a ball-dominant side that’s struggled to penetrate defences that sit deep:

Brighton possession	Record
50% or more	W1 D5 L3
49% or less	W5 D1 L0

Amid a first managerial campaign with Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler has struggled to gameplan against the counter-attack, allowing 16 shots and four goals from fast breaks (tied for most in the league).

The Seagulls only have won two of their last eight matches in all competitions, which includes dropping points to relegation contenders Wolves (2-2), Southampton (1-1) and Leicester (2-2).

After Glasner took over in February, Crystal Palace ascended from 16th to 10th in the table with a 7-4-3 run and a +15 goal differential.

The Eagles are flying under the radar and there’s value to back them on the double-result market.

Key stat: Brighton hasn’t kept a clean sheet in its last eight matches.

Quick pick

Bournemouth to win (-129): Don’t look now, but Bournemouth have won three straight matches and are soaring up the Premier League table.

A big reason for its recent success is its ultra-aggressive attack.

Bournemouth is generating the second-highest xG (2.06) per game.

It is whipping in the most crosses into the penalty area (averaging 2.53 per game).

This plays in its favour since West Ham is struggling defensively, allowing 1.80 xG per game. The Hammers also allow the third-most crosses into the penalty area (2.40 per game).

Offensively, West Ham is lacking at the striker position with Niclas Fullkurg not in full health and Michail Antonio (broken leg) out for an extended period.

Bournemouth plays better at home, to the tune of a 4-2-1 record, including astonishing wins over Arsenal and Manchester City.

It’s worth noting it has the rest advantage, with West Ham having last played on Monday.

I say pick the Cherries to extend their winning streak at home.

Picks made at 10:53 a.m. on 12/12/24.

NFL Week 15 parlay picks: Bet on Texans and Falcons to win in +265 ticket

This week’s NFL parlay features two moneyline picks and an alternate spread.

The pregame narrative: Houston hosts the surging Miami Dolphins, and I like the home side coming off a late-week bye. I am also backing the Atlanta Falcons to snap their losing streak against an inferior foe and for the Indianapolis Colts to cover an alt spread in a high-stakes matchup.

Check out my NFL Week 15 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 15 parlay picks

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Parlay: Texans moneyline + Colts +7.5 + Falcons moneyline (+265)

Texans moneyline (-150): Coming off a much-needed bye week, I believe this is a great spot to back the Texans at home.

Houston hasn’t seen much downtime since starting training camp back in July and has been hit hard by injuries, but the long rest should benefit the Texans well in this matchup.

Miami’s offence has clicked since Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injury but has feasted on poor defences and now faces its toughest test of the season.

Houston’s ferocious pass rush and above-average secondary have given really good quarterbacks a hard time:

Limited Josh Allen to a season-worst 30 percent completion rate on 131 passing yards.

Held Jared Goff to a season-worst 50 percent completion rate and a career-high five interceptions.

Houston has won six of its last eight games at home. Meanwhile, Miami has lost three of its last four away games.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Nico Collins should thrive against a Dolphins’ secondary that just allowed an aging Aaron Rodgers to throw for 339 passing yards.

Other parlay picks

Colts +7.5 (-209): The Broncos have far exceeded expectations this year, but I’ll sell high on them against an improving Colts squad.

Quarterback Anthony Richardson has performed better since returning from a benching earlier in the season and will get some reinforcements for this game.

Breakout receiver Josh Downs returns from injury. His imposing presence will divert the attention away from Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce downfield.

The Broncos’ elite defence blitzes at a 31.3 percent rate — tied for fourth-most — but Richardson has the mobility to avert pressure and scramble outside the pocket.

Indianapolis is 4-1-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.

The Colts are fighting for a playoff spot and I expect they keep this game close.

Falcons moneyline (-209): The Falcons are winless in their last four games but face the perfect opponent to get back on track.

A recent 42-21 loss to the Vikings looks bad on paper. However, the Falcons racked up 496 total yards, including 158 rushing yards off the league’s best run-stopping unit.

Defensively, the front seven stepped up by pressuring Sam Darnold for four sacks.

On the other side, the Raiders (2-11) have lost nine straight games. They also allow a league-worst 27.8 points per game.

Head coach Antonio Pierce is likely rolling with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, who was benched by the Falcons last season.

The former third-round pick has a woeful 31.0 QB rating in limited action this season.

This is a must-win game for the Falcons who sit a game back of the vulnerable New Orleans Saints in the NFC South division.

I expect a big game from Kirk Cousins, who is under the microscope after back-to-back subpar performances.

NFL picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 12/11/24.

NFL Week 15 parlay picks: Bet on Texans and Falcons to win in +283 ticket

This week’s NFL parlay features two moneyline picks and an alternate spread.

The pregame narrative: Houston hosts the surging Miami Dolphins, and I like the home side coming off a late-week bye. I am also backing the Atlanta Falcons to snap their losing streak against an inferior foe and for the Indianapolis Colts to cover an alt spread in a high-stakes matchup.

Check out my NFL Week 15 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 15 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 15 betting markets.

Parlay: Texans moneyline + Colts +7.5 + Falcons moneyline (+283)

Embed: #103184

Texans moneyline (-150): Coming off a much-needed bye week, I believe this is a great spot to back the Texans at home.

Houston hasn’t seen much downtime since starting training camp back in July and has been hit hard by injuries, but the long rest should benefit the Texans well in this matchup.

Miami’s offence has clicked since Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injury but has feasted on poor defences and now faces its toughest test of the season.

Houston’s ferocious pass rush and above-average secondary have given really good quarterbacks a hard time:

Limited Josh Allen to a season-worst 30 percent completion rate on 131 passing yards.

Held Jared Goff to a season-worst 50 percent completion rate and a career-high five interceptions.

Houston has won six of its last eight games at home. Meanwhile, Miami has lost three of its last four away games.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Nico Collins should thrive against a Dolphins’ secondary that just allowed an aging Aaron Rodgers to throw for 339 passing yards.

Other parlay picks

Colts +7.5 (-186): The Broncos have far exceeded expectations this year, but I’ll sell high on them against an improving Colts squad.

Quarterback Anthony Richardson has performed better since returning from a benching earlier in the season and will get some reinforcements for this game.

Breakout receiver Josh Downs returns from injury. His imposing presence will divert the attention away from Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce downfield.

The Broncos’ elite defence blitzes at a 31.3 percent rate — tied for fourth-most — but Richardson has the mobility to avert pressure and scramble outside the pocket.

Indianapolis is 4-1-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.

The Colts are fighting for a playoff spot and I expect they keep this game close.

Falcons moneyline (-205): The Falcons are winless in their last four games but face the perfect opponent to get back on track.

A recent 42-21 loss to the Vikings looks bad on paper. However, the Falcons racked up 496 total yards, including 158 rushing yards off the league’s best run-stopping unit.

Defensively, the front seven stepped up by pressuring Sam Darnold for four sacks.

On the other side, the Raiders (2-11) have lost nine straight games. They also allow a league-worst 27.8 points per game.

Head coach Antonio Pierce is likely rolling with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, who was benched by the Falcons last season.

The former third-round pick has a woeful 31.0 QB rating in limited action this season.

This is a must-win game for the Falcons who sit a game back of the vulnerable New Orleans Saints in the NFC South division.

I expect a big game from Kirk Cousins, who is under the microscope after back-to-back subpar performances.

NFL picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 12/11/24.

Premier League schedule, odds and betting lines Matchday 16: Manchester derby headlines weekend’s slate

A new Premier League slate features many exciting matchups, including the highly-anticipated Manchester derby.

The latest: First-place Liverpool takes on Fulham at Anfield. After that, Manchester City looks to find its footing at home against local rival Manchester United.

Check out the latest Premier League schedule for Matchday 16.

Premier League schedule: Matchday 16

Go to full Premier League betting markets

Arsenal vs. Everton

Embed: #103074

Liverpool vs. Fulham

Embed: #103075

Newcastle United vs. Leicester City

Embed: #103076

Wolverhampton vs. Ipswich Town

Embed: #103077

Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa

Embed: #103078

Brighton vs. Crystal Palace

Embed: #103079

Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Embed: #103080

Chelsea vs. Brentford

Embed: #103081

Southampton vs. Tottenham

Embed: #103082

Bournemouth vs. West Ham

Embed: #103083

Betting insights

Arsenal has scored 11 goals in its last four league matches. The Gunners’ 15.1 non-penalty expected goals against is the lowest in the league, per whoscored.com. They host an Everton side that has failed to score in its last three away matches.

Liverpool has multiple goals in each of its last seven league matches, including a 2-2 draw at Arsenal on Matchday 9. Mohamed Salah leads the league in goal contributions (21) and has scored in seven straight league matches. Fulham has conceded just seven goals in seven away matches.

Manchester City has one win in its last six league matches. It has scored multiple goals in five of its last six league matches against Manchester United. Ruben Amorim is 1-1-2 since appointed as United manager.

Chelsea has scored 14 goals in its last four league matches. The Blues are winless in their last five contests against Brentford (2 D, 3 L) but the Bees sport a poor 0-1-6 record in away matches this season.

Southampton has the highest non-penalty xGA of 36.4. Tottenham has scored three or more goals in seven league matches. The Spurs’ team total is set at 2.5 goals for this match.

Juventus vs. Man City same-game parlay predictions Dec. 11: Back Vlahovic and De Bruyne in Champions League match

Juventus vs. Manchester City predictions

A crucial Champions League fixture on Matchday 6 sees Juventus host Manchester City on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Juventus hasn’t lost in nine games, and I expect a result here against a slumping City squad. To round out the parlay, I added player props on Dusan Vlahovic and Kevin De Bruyne.

Check out my Juventus vs. Manchester City same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 11.

Juventus vs. Manchester City predictions

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Parlay: Juventus to win or tie + Vlahovic over 0.5 shots on target + De Bruyne over 1.5 shots (+310)

Embed: #103058

Juventus to win or tie (-122): Juventus has struggled with consistency this season but is more than capable of taking points at home against Man City.

Despite not tasting victory in over a month, Juventus has only a single loss — a 1-0 defeat to Stuttgart on Oct. 22 — to its overall record.

Thiago Motta’s squad has shown character against big opposition, with away draws to Inter Milan (4-4), AC Milan (0-0), and Aston Villa (0-0).

A matchup advantage for Juventus is in midfield, which is a glaring weakness for City in recent months and an area Motta can easily exploit.

Juventus is great at playing through the middle and creating numerical advantages in central areas.

The midfield also gets a boost with Weston McKennie and Douglas Luiz returning to link up with Manuel Locatelli.

Pep Guardiola’s side has been in dreadful form in recent months:

Man City has just one win in its last nine matches across all competitions.

Its last road win came against Wolverhampton on Oct. 20 with a go-ahead goal in added time.

City’s defensive struggles have been heavily documented since losing Rodri to a season-ending injury. Without the holding midfielder, the team is conceding more big chances from open play and counter-attacks.

Josko Gvardiol and Kyle Walker are defensive liabilities in the wide areas. Juventus has speedy wingers in Chico Conceicao and Kenan Yildaz, who can fly along the flanks and find crossing lanes for Vlahovic in the box.

I say City shouldn’t be priced as a decent-sized road favourite against a world-class side.

SGP legs

Vlahovic over 0.5 shots on target (-159): Vlahovic is back in the Juventus starting lineup, where his finishing prowess will be vital for this matchup.

When healthy, the Serbian international is firing plenty of shots.

The striker is averaging 3.88 shots and 1.52 shots on target per 90 in the Serie A.

He has recorded a shot on target in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Vlahovic is also great at generating shots through the air. His physical presence allows him to find spaces in the box to take headers off set-piece kicks.

City has allowed a woeful 1.96 expected goals against (xGA) per game in the Premier League since Sept. 23, per understat.com.

It’s also worth noting that Vlahovic serves as the team’s penalty taker.

De Bruyne over 1.5 shots (-195): De Bruyne’s workload has increased in recent games since missing time due to injury.

The City captain started in its last match at Crystal Palace, where he played for 86 minutes.

This season, De Bruyne is averaging 3.69 shots per 90 in the Premier League, ranked 92th percentile per Fotmob.

Juventus’ backline has allowed more shots since losing its best defender Gleison Bremer to an ACL injury.

City cannot rely solely on Haaland to score. With Phil Foden in poor form, De Bruyne has acted as the second attacking threat in midfield.

Picks made at 12:45 p.m. on 12/10/24.

Champions League Matchday 6 picks and predictions: Bet under on Leverkusen’s goal total against Inter

Three goal totals are featured for this week’s Champions League predictions.

The pregame narrative: Bayer Leverkusen should have trouble scoring when they host reigning Italian champions Inter Milan in an eye-popping match. Elsewhere, back the overs in matches involving PSV and AC Milan.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for Matchday 6.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 total goals (-138)

Bayer Leverkusen has struggled to score against sturdy defences. I expect goals will be hard to come by when facing Inter Milan’s compact backline.

Slowly but surely, the reigning German champions have regressed from their historic campaign with cracks appearing in their armour.

In the competition, Leverkusen has failed to score multiple goals in three of five matches — including a 1-0 victory to AC Milan and a 1-1 draw to Brest.

Its recent domestic form hasn’t been convincing either. Last week, Leverkusen mustered just 1.07 expected goals in the 1-0 win at Bayern Munich despite playing with a man advantage for 76 minutes.

With top goalscorer Victor Boniface sidelined through injury and Patrik Schick on potential time constraints, Leverkusen won’t pose much of an attacking threat to Inter’s defence.

Simone Inzaghi’s squad is loaded with savvy veterans with the likes of Federico Dimarco, Matteo Darmian and Alessandro Bastoni. They can defend in a low-back setup and win back possession in the final third.

So far, Champions League opponents have yet to score off the Black and Blues, with clean sheets over British giants Manchester City and Arsenal.

Playing at home in front of an energetic crowd could see Leverkusen deliver a result, but scoring twice off Inter is a tall task.

Key stat: Inter Milan remains the only team in the Champions League to not allow a goal.

Quick picks

Brest/PSV over 2.5 goals (-138): I believe this matchup has the potential for plenty of goals.

It’s worth highlighting that PSV has scored 56 goals in the Eredivisie campaign. They have the highest mark from a team after 15 matches in 37 seasons, per OptaJohan on X.

Peter Bosz’s squad has the perfect blend of young and experienced attackers that can outwit opposing defences.

The American duo of Ricardo Pepi and Malik Tillman has taken the Dutch league by storm. They combined for 16 goals in the Eredivisie.

Offensively, Brest is rated below average in Ligue 1. But the squad has delivered on the grandest stage by scoring in four of its five matches in the competition.

PSV has just one UCL clean sheet and recently allowed two goals to an offensively-weak Shakhtar Donetsk side.

AC Milan/Red Star Belgrade over 3 (-125): This line is awfully low for a contest between two sides with explosive attacks and suspect defences.

For Milan, Christian Pulisic is expected to miss this match after sustaining an injury during the weekend. However, the attack is still packed with dangerous forwards Rafael Leao and Alvaro Morata.

In midfield, Dutch international Tijjani Reijnders has enjoyed a breakout campaign by scoring six goals in all competitions.

Paulo Moresca’s attack is more than capable of racking up goals off a Red Star Belgrade club that’s allowed the second-most goals (17) in the tournament.

Red Star recorded a goal in four of its five matches, most notably two off Spanish giants Barcelona.

With a goal total set at three, I say this is an overreaction to the loss of a star player.

Picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 12/09/24.