Christian Larsen, Author at The Boost

NFL Week 18 parlay picks: Bet on Bengals and Chargers to win in +304 ticket

Two moneyline picks and an alt-spread on an underdog make up my NFL Week 18 parlay picks.

The pregame narrative: The Cincinnati Bengals are smoking hot and I am backing them to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a must-win game. After that, I like the Los Angeles Chargers to win and the New York Jets to keep things close in Aaron Rodgers’ potential final NFL game.

Check out my NFL Week 18 parlay picks below.

NFL Week 18 parlay picks

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Parlay: Bengals moneyline + Chargers moneyline + Jets +3.5 (+304)

Bengals moneyline (-132): Winners of four straight, the Bengals need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Keep in mind, the Steelers will likely be eliminated from the AFC-North title race before kick-off, as the Baltimore Ravens are 20-point favourites in the early game.

It would be out of character for Mike Tomlin and his squad to back down from a fight. However, the competitive edge definitely goes to the Bengals here.

Quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level with career-highs in passing yards (4,641) and passing touchdowns (42).

Pittsburgh has faced tougher competition in its three-game losing skid, but the glaring issues with its offensive line cannot be ignored.

Russell Wilson was sacked 10 times in his last three games, which is a problem going up against the Bengals pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson, who leads the NFL with 14 sacks.

Cincinnati is a different team from its 44-38 loss to Pittsburgh several weeks ago. I expect it to get revenge.

Other parlay picks

Chargers moneyline (-215): A Bengals victory would motivate the Chargers to grab a win here, with playoff seedings yet to be determined.

The connection between Justin Herbert and rookie receiver Ladd McConkey is clicking, while the running attack got a much-needed boost with J.K. Dobbins’ return from injury.

Meanwhile, the bottom-feeding Las Vegas Raiders are playing for nothing but pride.

The running back room, which was poor to begin the season, is down to their third string. Defensively, the Raiders’ front seven no longer poses a threat without Pro Bowler Maxx Crosby.

Against the Chargers’ offensive line, which ranks first in quarterback hurries (1.4 per game), Herbert should have time in the pocket to deal.

Jets +3.5 (-180): This matchup has no shortage of storylines.

The Jets will look to wash the sour taste of their 32-26 overtime loss to the Dolphins on Dec. 8, where it led for most of the game.

Likely at quarterback for the Dolphins is Tyler Huntley. He lacks the throwing strength and accuracy to exploit a mediocre secondary.

In four games this season, Huntley has thrown for just two passing touchdowns along with a mediocre 36.7 quarterback rating.

One of the fewest bright spots for the Jets is Breece Hall, who should have success running the ball against the Dolphins, who ranks 21st in run defence DVOA.

In what could be his final NFL game, Rodgers will be highly motivated to put on a great performance.

NFL picks made at 4:30 p.m. on 1/03/25.

Magic vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 3: Expect Toronto to keep it close, Bitadze to grab rebounds at +335

The Toronto Raptors look to build off their New Year’s Day victory when they host the Orlando Magic on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: I expect a healthier Raptors team to cover their alt-spread at home against an injury-riddled Magic team. Props on Goga Bitadze and Jakob Poeltl round out this same-game parlay.

Check out my Magic vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 3.

Magic vs. Raptors predictions

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Embed: #105136

Parlay: Raptors +6.5 + Bitadze over 9.5 rebounds + Poeltl under 22.5 points & rebounds (+335)

Raptors +6.5 (-278): Toronto snapped an 11-game losing skid with a convincing 130-113 victory over the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday and is finally getting healthy.

With Immanuel Quickley back and taking over primary ball-handling duties, Barnes returned to his strengths as a play-finisher, recording 33 points while going 9-for-10 in the paint.

Meanwhile, Orlando’s offence has faltered since losing forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to injuries.

The Magic are 4-6 since Dec. 8, covering a -6.5 spread in just one of those victories.

Orlando is averaging a league-worst 101.4 PPG in their last 10 games.

Although the Raptors sit 13th in the Eastern Conference with a lacklustre 8-26 record, they typically keep games competitive at home with a 12-5-1 ATS record.

SGP legs

Bitadze over 9.5 rebounds (-190): Bitadze is enjoying a career season and has served as a solid rim protector for Orlando.

The Georgian centre has a favourable matchup against a Raptors team allowing 15.8 rebounds on average to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.

He’s seen his minutes and usage rate tick up since fellow big man Moritz Wagner sustained a season-ending knee injury on Dec. 21.

In great form, Bitadze has double-digit rebounds in eight of his last 10 games.

And given that he owns a team-best 18.1 rebound percentage, I say the “Go Go Gadget” continues to hold it down in the paint.

Poeltl under 22.5 points & rebounds (-127): The Magic poses a brutal matchup for Poeltl, whose season has been riddled with inconsistencies and injuries.

Orlando allows the second-fewest points in the paint (44.1), per Team Rankings. In addition, the Austrian centre has gone under this mark in his last six games.

In recent games against the Magic formidable centres Nic Claxton and Bam Adebayo have failed to surpass this total.

Picks made at 12:39 p.m. ET 01/03/2025

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EPL Matchday 20 picks and predictions: Bet the under in Wolves vs. Nottingham, back Brentford to score

I’ve got two bets for the first Premier League matchday of the calendar year.

The pregame narrative: Look for Brentford to score a couple on the road against relegation-contending Southampton. On Saturday, Wolverhampton hosts red-hot Nottingham Forest in what I expect to be a feisty and low-scoring matchup

Check out the best EPL Matchday 20 picks.

EPL Matchday 20 picks

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Best Bet: Brentford over 1.5 total goals (+105)

On record, Brentford is one of the league’s worst away sides, with just two points off nine matches. However, the strength of competition should be taken into consideration.

In their away fixtures, the Bees faced a gauntlet of top sides (Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham) and haven’t clashed against a bottom feeder — until this weekend.

Brentford is an aggressive attacking team, with Bryan Mbeumo controlling the right flank, Yoane Wissa wreaking havoc in the box and its best free-kicker Mathias Jensen returning from injury.

The attack should do damage off a Southampton side that averages a league-worst 2.25 expected goals allowed (xGA) per 90 minutes and has conceded 11 goals off set-pieces.

With hopes of escaping the relegation zone, Southampton hired experienced manager Ivan Juric in late December. However, the backline has continued to allow a flurry of chances.

In their recent 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, the Saints allowed both goals from set-piece plays and it’s a defensive flaw the Bees can exploit — and have before.

The reverse fixture in August saw Thomas Frank’s side thump Southampton for three goals, including one from a long throw-in.

Brentford’s road form is due for positive regression, and I say there’s value in backing it to score a couple off a poor defensive side.

Key stat: Brentford has scored multiple goals in four straight matches against Southampton.

Quick pick

Wolves/Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals (-118): Wolves were a porous defensive team before sacking former manager Gary O’Neil in mid-December.

In comes Vitor Pereira, whose coaching tactics emphasize flexibility and solidity on defence. In three games under management, Wolves recorded two clean sheets en route to convincing victories.

Their attack takes a major hit with the suspension of forward Matheus Cunha, who leads the club in goals (10), shots, and chances created.

Sitting third in the league table at 37 points, Nottingham Forest could be destined for Champions League play next season, largely due to its impenetrable defence.

Nuno Espiritu Santo’s side ranks first in final-third entry conversion rate (averaging 1.6 percent) and is joint leader in clean sheets with Liverpool, at eight.

Offensively, the Tricky Trees are lethal when sitting deep and inviting pressure before attacking on the counter.

Wolves, however, are less resistant to quick counters and have allowed just a single goal on 16 fast break shots.