Christian Larsen

EPL Matchday 22 picks and predictions: Back Fulham to win, goals in Manchester City fixture

EPL Matchday 22 picks

I’ve got two bets for this action-packed weekend in the Premier League.

The pregame narrative: I spot value in backing Fulham to secure a road victory over bottom-feeding Leicester City. After that, Ipswich Town hosts Manchester City, and I expect both teams to get on the scoresheet.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 22 picks.

EPL Matchday 22 picks

Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Embed: #106376

Best Bet: Fulham to win (-107)

This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Cottagers.

Clumsy errors from their backline led to a 3-2 defeat against West Ham on Tuesday. Despite the loss, they held the Hammers to just four shots and six touches inside the box.

Unlike West Ham, Leicester is not an effective high-pressing side.

Since Ruud van Nistelrooy came over as manager, it’s allowing the second-most passes per defensive action (PPDA) at 15.41, per Understat.

Marco Silva’s side can expose the Foxes by dominating wide areas with overloads to stir up scoring chances.

Led by left-back Antonee Robinson, with nine assists to his ledger, Fulham has the highest number of crosses into the penalty area. Meanwhile, Leicester is 17th in allowing crosses into the penalty area.

The Cottagers won 2-1 in the reverse fixture, generating 1.78 expected goals (xG) to Leceister’s 0.61.

https://twitter.com/MenInBlazers/status/1827379572972617987

On the road, Fulham is 3-4-3 (seventh in EPL) with impressive wins over Chelsea and Nottingham Forest.

Although the Foxes have the advantage of playing a third straight home fixture, they’re no match against an angry Fulham squad.

Key stat: Before Wednesday, Leicester lost in five straight matches.

Quick pick

Ipswich Town/Manchester City – Both teams to score (-132): This is a juicy line, but I believe it’s worth playing.

There is no doubt that City can score off an Ipswich defence, averaging a woeful 2.09 xGA (second-worst in the EPL).

However, there are no signs of improvement in its defence — evident in the 2-2 thriller at Brentford on Tuesday.

Without Rodri in midfield and injuries to the backline, City lacks the pace to effectively counter-press its opponents. As a result, the side is leaving acres of open space for opponents to rip shots in defensive areas.

Despite sitting 18th in the table, Ipswich has shown flashes of brilliance in attack by bringing tons of speed on the counter.

The Citizens have kept just four clean sheets over 21 league matches.

Picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 01/15/25.

Coco Gauff vs. Leylah Fernandez Australian Open odds and best bet: Take the under in total games

Gauff vs. Fernandez odds

Leylah Fernandez takes on Coco Gauff in the third round of the Australian Open.

The pregame narrative: Fernandez is off to a flying start in 2025 but now faces one of the world’s best in Gauff. I expect the surging American to make quick work here.

Check out our Gauff vs. Fernandez odds and best bet for their Australian Open match on Jan. 16.

Gauff vs. Fernandez Australian Open odds

Go to full Gauff vs. Fernandez betting markets.

Betting marketsBetting odds
Gauff to win-700
Fernandez to win+400
Gauff -5.5 games-112
Fernandez +5.5 games-125
Over 19.5 games-118
Under 19.5 games-118

Best bet: Under 19.5 games (-118)

Fernandez has fared well against solid competition, but Gauff has been playing out her mind.

The No. 3-ranked American enters this match with victories in seven consecutive matches, defeating top-10 competitors Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula in straight sets.

Fernandez, also in great playing form, was resilient in her second-round win over Cristina Bucsa (3-6, 6-4, 6-4) but looked vulnerable in the service game.

Inconsistent serving has remained an issue for Fernandez in this tournament. The Montreal native has four aces versus 13 double faults.

This doesn’t bode well against one of the best returners in the sport. Last season, Gauff ranked 16th in return games won (45.7) and 39th in second return points won (58%).

The two competitors recently met at the United Cup, with Gauff defeating Fernandez in straight sets (6-3, 6-2).

Against left-handers like Fernandez, the American owns a solid 15-4 record while winning 73% of sets.

I anticipate another quick victory as Gauff’s athleticism and superb defensive skills should overwhelm Fernandez.

Key stat: In 2024, Fernandez ranked 145th in break points won (44.8%).

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.

Coco Gauff vs. Leylah Fernandez Australian Open odds and best bet: Take the under in total games

Gauff vs. Fernandez odds

Leylah Fernandez takes on Coco Gauff in the third round of the Australian Open.

The pregame narrative: Fernandez is off to a flying start in 2025 but now faces one of the world’s best in Gauff. I expect the surging American to make quick work here.

Check out our Gauff vs. Fernandez odds and best bet for their Australian Open match on Jan. 16.

Gauff vs. Fernandez Australian Open odds

Go to full Gauff vs. Fernandez betting markets.

Betting marketsBetting odds
Gauff to win-625
Fernandez to win+460
Gauff -5.5 games-110
Fernandez +5.5 games-115
Over 19.5 games-113
Under 19.5 games-113

Best bet: Under 19.5 games (-113)

Fernandez has fared well against solid competition, but Gauff has been playing out her mind.

The No. 3-ranked American enters this match with victories in seven consecutive matches, defeating top-10 competitors Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula in straight sets.

Fernandez, also in great playing form, was resilient in her second-round win over Cristina Bucsa (3-6, 6-4, 6-4) but looked vulnerable in the service game.

Inconsistent serving has remained an issue for Fernandez in this tournament. The Montreal native has four aces versus 13 double faults.

This doesn’t bode well against one of the best returners in the sport. Last season, Gauff ranked 16th in return games won (45.7) and 39th in second return points won (58%).

The two competitors recently met at the United Cup, with Gauff defeating Fernandez in straight sets (6-3, 6-2).

Against left-handers like Fernandez, the American owns a solid 15-4 record while winning 73% of sets.

I anticipate another quick victory as Gauff’s athleticism and superb defensive skills should overwhelm Fernandez.

Key stat: In 2024, Fernandez ranked 145th in break points won (44.8%).

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.

Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Thunder to cover alt-spread, fade Maxey

Thunder vs. Sixers predictions

The first-place Oklahoma City Thunder looks to take care of business against the struggling Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Oklahoma City is posting elite defensive numbers and I am backing their alt spread in this +340 SGP. Therefore, I believe Maxey is worth fading as a scorer while Isaiah Hartenstein should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 14.

Thunder vs. 76ers predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Thunder -9.5 + Maxey under 3.5 threes + Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (+320)

Thunder -9.5 (-200): It’s hard to imagine the Sixers finding any offensive success against an elite defence, especially with Joel Embiid out.

Oklahoma City is posting a league-best 102.9 defensive rating while carrying four of the top 10 qualified players in defensive rating.

Offensively, the Thunder are not world-beaters by any means. However, with the Sixers missing Embiid and Andre Drummond for this game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein can wreak havoc in the paint.

Atop the Western Conference standings, the Thunder are winning most of their games in blowout fashion. Seven of their last eight wins came by double-digits, including against the New York Knicks (117-107) and Boston Celtics (105-92).

Meanwhile, the Sixers are a woeful 4-13 ATS at home this season. Recent losses came against the Phoenix Suns (by 10 points) and an inferior New Orleans Pelicans team (by eight points).

SGP legs

Maxey under 3.5 threes (-138): Maxey is one the few shining lights in the Sixers lineup, but faces a tough matchup against a scrappy Thunder defence.

  • Best three-point defence (32%)
  • Allowing 12.4 3PTM per game (2nd)
  • Allowing 20.8 PPG to point guards (2nd)

The all-star point guard, being asked to attempt more three-point shots, is hitting at a career-worst 33.6 clip through 31 games.

He’s failed to exceed this mark in eight of his last 10 games, despite averaging 9.6 attempts during that stretch.

I expect an undersized Maxey to be held in check, with Paul George taking on a bigger shooting role.

Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (-150): If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Head coach Mark Daigneault is giving Hartenstein more reign to create plays, and it’s worked wonders thus far.

The seven-footer has cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 4.6 assists during that stretch.

Philly is the seventh-best team in preventing assists to centres. However, this doesn’t factor in the key absences in their paint protection.

The potential for a blowout does make it a tad worrisome. But there’s no reason this leg can’t cash before that becomes a factor.

Picks made at 2:33 p.m. on 01/14/25.

Davidovich Fokina vs. Felix Auger Aliassime Australian Open odds and predictions: Expect a hard-fought win for the Canadian

Davidovich Fokina vs. Auger Aliassime odds

Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime meets Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the Australian Open on Jan. 15.

The pregame narrative: Auger-Aliassime has been on a tear and now faces a familiar foe in Davidovich Fokina. He’s swept the Spaniard in their four meetings, and I expect a similar result when they play Wednesday.

Check out our Davidovich Fokina vs. Auger-Aliassime odds and best bet for their Australian Open second round match on Jan. 15.

Fokina vs. Auger-Aliassime odds

Go to full Davidovich Fokina vs. Auger-Aliassime betting markets.

Betting marketsBetting odds
Davidovich Fokina to win+240
Auger-Aliassime to win-334
Davidovich Fokina +5 games-112
Auger-Aliassime -5 games-125
Over 37 games-118
Under 37 games-118

Tennis odds as of 1:00 p.m. ET on 01/14/2025.

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime to win 3-1 sets (+260)

Auger-Aliassime enters this contest, and the first Grand Slam of the year, on an absolute heater.

The Canadian has won five straight matches and recently took home the Adelaide International title. During that span, he scored victories over Americans Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Sebastian Korda — each of whom rank within the Top 25.

Auger-Aliassime’s powerful serve, among the best on the ATP Tour, was on full display in his Australian Open first-round victory over Jan-Lennard Struff, launching 19 aces en route to winning 76% of his first serves.

The 66th-ranked Davidovich Fokina is 5-9 in his last 14 main-draw matches. His previous matches vs. Auger-Aliassime have produced just one set that lasted fewer than 10 games. Their 2022 Australian Open second-round match alone produced four tie-break sets.

I expect another hard-fought battle, with the red-hot Canadian winning in four sets at an intriguing plus-money price.

Key stat: Davidovich Fokina has won a set in 11 of his last 12 Grand Slam matches.

Picks made at 12:04 p.m. on 01/14/25

Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Thunder to cover alt-spread, fade Maxey

Thunder vs. Sixers predictions

The first-place Oklahoma City Thunder looks to take care of business against the struggling Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Oklahoma City is posting elite defensive numbers and I am backing their alt spread in this +340 SGP. Therefore, I believe Maxey is worth fading as a scorer while Isaiah Hartenstein should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 14.

Thunder vs. 76ers predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

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Parlay: Thunder -9.5 + Maxey under 3.5 threes + Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (+340)

Thunder -9.5 (-195): It’s hard to imagine the Sixers finding any offensive success against an elite defence, especially with Joel Embiid out.

Oklahoma City is posting a league-best 102.9 defensive rating while carrying four of the top 10 qualified players in defensive rating.

Offensively, the Thunder are not world-beaters by any means. However, with the Sixers missing Embiid and Andre Drummond for this game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein can wreak havoc in the paint.

Atop the Western Conference standings, the Thunder are winning most of their games in blowout fashion. Seven of their last eight wins came by double-digits, including against the New York Knicks (117-107) and Boston Celtics (105-92).

Meanwhile, the Sixers are a woeful 4-13 ATS at home this season. Recent losses came against the Phoenix Suns (by 10 points) and an inferior New Orleans Pelicans team (by eight points).

SGP legs

Maxey under 3.5 threes (-141): Maxey is one the few shining lights in the Sixers lineup, but faces a tough matchup against a scrappy Thunder defence.

  • Best three-point defence (32%)
  • Allowing 12.4 3PTM per game (2nd)
  • Allowing 20.8 PPG to point guards (2nd)

The all-star point guard, being asked to attempt more three-point shots, is hitting at a career-worst 33.6 clip through 31 games.

He’s failed to exceed this mark in eight of his last 10 games, despite averaging 9.6 attempts during that stretch.

I expect an undersized Maxey to be held in check, with Paul George taking on a bigger shooting role.

Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (-115): If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Head coach Mark Daigneault is giving Hartenstein more reign to create plays, and it’s worked wonders thus far.

The seven-footer has cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 4.6 assists during that stretch.

Philly is the seventh-best team in preventing assists to centres. However, this doesn’t factor in the key absences in their paint protection.

The potential for a blowout does make it a tad worrisome. But there’s no reason this leg can’t cash before that becomes a factor.

Picks made at 2:33 p.m. on 01/14/25.

Davidovich Fokina vs. Felix Auger Aliassime Australian Open odds and predictions: Expect a hard-fought win for the Canadian

Davidovich Fokina vs. Auger Aliassime odds

Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime meets Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the Australian Open on Jan. 15.

The pregame narrative: Auger-Aliassime has been on a tear and now faces a familiar foe in Davidovich Fokina. He’s swept the Spaniard in their four meetings, and I expect a similar result when they play Wednesday.

Check out our Davidovich Fokina vs. Auger-Aliassime odds and best bet for their Australian Open second round match on Jan. 15.

Fokina vs. Auger-Aliassime odds

Go to full Davidovich Fokina vs. Auger-Aliassime betting markets.

Betting marketsBetting odds
Davidovich Fokina to win+240
Auger-Aliassime to win-315
Davidovich Fokina +5.5 games-125
Auger-Aliassime -5.5 games-103
Over 37.5 games-108
Under 37.5 games-118

Tennis odds as of 1:00 p.m. ET on 01/14/2025.

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime over 20.5 games won (-107)

Auger-Aliassime enters this contest, and the first Grand Slam of the year, on an absolute heater.

The Canadian has won five straight matches and recently took home the Adelaide International title. During that span, he scored victories over Americans Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Sebastian Korda — each of whom rank within the Top 25.

Auger-Aliassime’s powerful serve, among the best on the ATP Tour, was on full display in his Australian Open first-round victory over Jan-Lennard Struff, launching 19 aces en route to winning 76% of his first serves.

The 66th-ranked Davidovich Fokina is 5-9 in his last 14 main-draw matches. His previous matches vs. Auger-Aliassime have produced just one set that lasted fewer than 10 games. Their 2022 Australian Open second-round match alone produced four tie-break sets.

I expect another hard-fought battle, with the red-hot Canadian needing at least 21 games to advance through the next round.

Key stat: Davidovich Fokina has won a set in 11 of his last 12 Grand Slam matches.

Picks made at 12:04 p.m. on 01/14/25

Cristina Bucsa vs. Leylah Fernandez Australian Open odds and best bet: Bet the over on total games

Bucsa vs. Fernandez odds

Leylah Fernandez faces Cristina Bucsa in the second round of the Australian Open.

The pregame narrative: Fernandez was dominant in her opening-round match but now faces a competitor in solid form. I expect this second-round clash to be hard-fought and go the distance.

Check out our Bucsa vs. Fernandez odds and best bet for their Australian Open match on Jan. 14.

Bucsa vs. Fernandez Australian Open odds

Go to full Bucsa vs. Fernandez betting markets.

Betting marketsBetting odds
Bucsa to win+400
Fernandez to win-700
Bucsa +5.5 games-125
Fernandez -5.5 games-112
Over 19.5 games-125
Under 19.5 games-112

Best bet: Over 19.5 games (-125)

Fernandez defeated Yuliia Starodutseva 7-5, 6-4 in the first round, which I predicted would exceed 19 games.

In the win, she struggled to develop a string of winning games together due to unforced errors. Fernandez committed six double faults to just two aces.

Bucsa’s strengths come from her baseline play and movement. The Spanish player is known for her solid court coverage and ability to dictate play from the backcourt.

Here’s how their stats from 2024 matchup:

  • Service games won, Fernandez : 69.1% vs. 58.3%
  • Return games won, Bucsa: 36.9% vs. 36.4%
  • Break points converted, Bucsa: 47.6% vs. 44.8%

With both players strong on the baseline and lacking consistency with their serves, a back-and-forth match is how I expect this one to play out.

Bucsa and Fernandez first met at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, with the Canadian winning 7-6(4), 6-3.

Both competitors will have the stamina to engage in a long battle after opening-round wins in straight sets — Bucsa needed only an hour and 26 minutes to defeat Chloe Paquet.

I believe Fernandez comes out with a victory, but it won’t come easy.

Key stat: All six of Fernandes’ matches in the Australian Open have exceeded 19.5 games.

Picks made at 3:04 p.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Cristina Bucsa vs. Leylah Fernandez Australian Open odds and best bet: Bet the over on total games

Bucsa vs. Fernandez odds

Leylah Fernandez faces Cristina Bucsa in the second round of the Australian Open.

The pregame narrative: Fernandez was dominant in her opening-round match but now faces a competitor in solid form. I expect this second-round clash to be hard-fought and go the distance.

Check out our Bucsa vs. Fernandez odds and best bet for their Australian Open match on Jan. 14.

Bucsa vs. Fernandez Australian Open odds

Go to full Bucsa vs. Fernandez betting markets.

Betting marketsBetting odds
Bucsa to win+440
Fernandez to win-625
Bucsa +5.5 games-121
Fernandez -5.5 games-106
Over 19.5 games-110
Under 19.5 games-115

Best bet: Over 19.5 games (-110)

Fernandez defeated Yuliia Starodutseva 7-5, 6-4 in the first round, which I predicted would exceed 19 games.

In the win, she struggled to develop a string of winning games together due to unforced errors. Fernandez committed six double faults to just two aces.

Bucsa’s strengths come from her baseline play and movement. The Spanish player is known for her solid court coverage and ability to dictate play from the backcourt.

Here’s how their stats from 2024 matchup:

  • Service games won, Fernandez : 69.1% vs. 58.3%
  • Return games won, Bucsa: 36.9% vs. 36.4%
  • Break points converted, Bucsa: 47.6% vs. 44.8%

With both players strong on the baseline and lacking consistency with their serves, a back-and-forth match is how I expect this one to play out.

Bucsa and Fernandez first met at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, with the Canadian winning 7-6(4), 6-3.

Both competitors will have the stamina to engage in a long battle after opening-round wins in straight sets — Bucsa needed only an hour and 26 minutes to defeat Chloe Paquet.

I believe Fernandez comes out with a victory, but it won’t come easy.

Key stat: All six of Fernandes’ matches in the Australian Open have exceeded 19.5 games.

Picks made at 3:04 p.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Vikings vs. Rams wild-card TD picks: Back Addison and Higbee at plus-money odds

Vikings vs. Rams TD picks.

I’ve got a wide receiver and tight end featured in my TD picks for the wild-card game between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams.

The pregame narrative: Jordan Addison has consistently scored in a pass-heavy attack and he gets a plus matchup. Secondly, I am taking a shot at Tyler Higbee to catch a touchdown pass at longshot odds.

Check out the best Vikings vs. Rams TD picks for the wild-card round.

Vikings vs. Rams TD picks

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Best bet: Addison anytime TD (+130)

Addison has emerged as Sam Darnold’s go-to target in the red zone, but the odds aren’t reflecting that.

Since Week 8, the second-year pro has been a scoring machine.

  • Addison caught eight touchdown passes, with scores in 6/10 games.
  • Targeted in the red zone in nine of 10 games.

Justin Jefferson (priced at -120) warrants plenty of attention from defensive backs, which allows Addison to find open spaces.

From looking at the underlying metrics, I cannot justify the gap in touchdown odds between the two wideouts. Despite missing two games to injury, Addison saw 19 red-zone targets to Jefferson’s 24.

Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings like to run passing plays near the goal line, throwing at a 58% clip from inside the 10-yard line (ranked sixth in the NFL), per Pro Football Focus.

This spells problems for a vulnerable Rams secondary that allowed 21 touchdowns to wide receivers, the third-most in the NFL.

They also use a high rate of zone coverage, a setup that Darnold has thrived against with a 108.5 passer rating (fifth-best).

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1865826866093056369

Key stat: This season, Addison converted 44.4% of his targets within the 10-yard line.

Quick picks

Higbee anytime TD (+400): Higbee has long served as a reliable end-zone target for Matthew Stafford.

The Rams tight end scored in 2/3 games since returning from an MCL and ACL injury.

In Week 18, Higbee received a healthy dose of red-zone looks with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.

Although the Vikings are a tough matchup against opposing tight ends, this price is just too good to ignore.

With an emphasis on covering Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp in the red zone, Stafford could seek out his trusted tight end with their season on the line.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.