Christian Larsen

I have two bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate, with one focused on the Arsenal and Manchester City rivalry.

The pregame narrative: The marquee match sees Arsenal host rivals Manchester City, and I say there’s value in backing the Gunners to win at plus-money odds. Before that, take Nottingham Forest to bounce back with a win over Brighton at home.

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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (+108)

Manchester City has slowly turned things around, with newly-added Omar Marmoush giving the attack a much-needed spark. But… let’s back up the hype train just a bit.

Defensive issues remain a big worry for this team.

• 8.06 xG in the last five league matches
• 26 shots allowed vs. PSG last week (4-2 loss)

Simply put, the Citizens are too slow to be effective in the counter-press, with opponents finding more success at creating scoring chances.

Arsenal doesn’t possess the same attacking punch without star winger Bukayo Saka but remains capable of exposing City’s defensive weaknesses.

A matchup advantage for the Gunners is in midfield, where they often control play with intelligent passes while baiting opponents into pressing them.

Counterattacking is not often a feature in Mikel Arteta’s game plan, but it could be a sneaky weapon in this fixture.

Arsenal have converted 30.8% of fast break shots (4-for-13). Meanwhile, City allows the fourth-most shots in transition.

In addition, the Gunners remain the only club to be unbeaten at home, with a 7-4-0 record this season.

At plus-money odds, backing Arsenal on the money line offers good value.

Key stat: Man City ranks 15th in big-scoring chances allowed (2.9 per 90).

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest draw no bet (-134): This is a bounce-back spot for Nottingham Forest to at least get a result.

The Tricky Trees saw their eight-game unbeaten streak end against a flying Bournemouth side. But the Seagulls don’t pose the same threat.

Brighton was shut out by Everton last week, registering just a single shot on target despite controlling possession.

The offence is ranked 12th in non-penalty xG (1.34 per 90) and 11th in big-scoring chances. Meanwhile, Forest is the second-best team in limiting big scoring chances.

Under Nuno Espiritu Santo, its plan in attack is to win the ball in defensive areas and create chances on the counter — something Brighton is vulnerable to.

Nuno’s side must get back on track to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. And I have trouble believing Brighton can find tons of scoring success off a staunch backline like Forest’s.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. on 01/30/25.

I have two player props for the final league-phase matches in the Champions League.

The pregame narrative: Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz faces a promising matchup against Sparta Praha, and I say there’s value in backing the youngster to score at plus-money odds. Also, bet on Atalanta’s Charles De Ketelaere to rip a couple of shots.

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Best Bet: Wirtz anytime goal scorer (+115)

Bayer Leverkusen’s talisman is among the brighter young stars in the German top flight.

The catalyst of the club’s historic season, Wirtz is making bigger strides in 2024-25.

• Nine goals on 7.1 expected goals (xG) in the Bundesliga.
• Averaging 3.3 shots per match.
• Made 13 carries leading to a chance, most in the Bundesliga.

He faces a favourable matchup against Czech side Sparta Prague, which has conceded 19 goals and the second-most shots in the competition.

Leverkusen is eighth in the table, with a single goal making the difference for Round-of-16 qualification. So, it will be crucial for Xabi Alonso’s side to keep its foot on the pedal and pile up goals.

Wirtz serving as the club’s main penalty taker is an added bonus for this prop.

Considering the markets are pricing Leverkusen to score at least three goals, I feel good about his chances of netting a goal.

Key stat: Wirtz leads the club with five goals in the Champions League.

Quick picks

De Ketelaere over 1.5 shots (-120): Charles De Ketelaere has been a standout figure for Atalanta.

The Belgian attacker has scored four goals in his last three Champions League fixtures, averaging 3.3 shots during that stretch.

Barcelona’s defence has been proven vulnerable to strong attacking sides, as exhibited by conceding four goals on 10 shots from Benfica last week.

De Ketelaere, standing at an imposing 6-foot-4, can also generate shots from set-piece plays.

With striker Ademola Lookman ruled out due to injury, he will become even more important to Gian Piero Gasperini’s gameplan and could play the full 90 minutes.

Picks made at 11:33 a.m. on 01/28/25.

My picks for the final league-phase matches in the Champions League feature two La Liga sides.

The pregame narrative: Barcelona has delivered plenty of high-scoring matches this season and I believe its clash against Atalanta will be no different. Also, back Atletico Madrid to win convincingly over inferior Austrian side Red Bull Salzburg on the road.

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Best Bet: Barcelona/Atalanta over 3.5 goals (-104)

This matchup has all the makings of a thrilling spectacle.

Time and time again, Barcelona has consistently produced barnburners that bring viewers to the edge of their seats. And last week’s 5-4 victory at Benfica could be the “Match of the Year” when all is said and done.

The Catalans have arguably the best attacking squad in Europe.

Led by the dangerous trio of Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, Barcelona is averaging a league-best 2.8 goals in La Liga.

Manager Hansi Flick likes to play a high-pressing defensive line to quickly regain possession in forward areas. The big downside to this strategy is it leaves acres of space for opponents to create fast-break opportunities.

After being hammered by Benfica’s counterattack, Barcelona’s defenders now face a tougher challenge against Atalanta’s striking duo of Ademola Lookman and Mateo Retegui, who’ve combined for 33 goals in all competitions.

Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta utilizes a similar Gegenpressing tactic, with a 3-5-2 structure. Its attacking production in the Serie A has been impressive.

• 2nd in expected goals (1.71 per 90)
• 3rd in shots on goal (5.5 per 90)
• 2nd in big scoring chances (3.5 per 90)
• 2nd in final-third entry conversion rate

It has carried over to the bigger stage, with the Italian side posting the highest non-penalty xG figure (18.54) in the Champions League.

A loss would push Atalanta outside the Top 8, so it must rely heavily on its counter-pressing to stay level with Barcelona to secure a spot in the round of 16.

Key stat: This bet is 4-2 in Barcelona’s Champions League matches, which have averaged 5.28 goals.

Quick picks

Atletico Madrid -1.5 (+100): It shouldn’t be too much to ask a title-contending squad like Atletico Madrid to defeat an inferior side by multiple goals.

• Diego Simeone’s side is second in La Liga, sporting a 16-3-2 record, and four points back of Real Madrid.

• Atletico is also fifth in the Champions League, with 15 points and a 5-0-2 record.

• It is coming off an impressive 2-1 home win over reigning German champs Bayer Leverkusen last week.

Salzburg, 34th in the table with a woeful -19 goal differential, is playing solely for pride at this stage. And its six defeats in this competition have all been lopsided.

The domestic form doesn’t look inspiring, either. The Red Bulls are fifth in Austria’s Bundesliga, with a lacklustre 7-5-4 record and is 10 points behind leader Sturm Graz.

Atletico only needs a win to guarantee Round of 16 qualification, but I am expecting a beatdown here.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/27/25.