Christian Larsen, Author at The Boost

Champions League playoff schedule and odds Feb. 11-12: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid meet in knockout phase

The knockout phase playoffs feature several intriguing matchups, with a rematch of last season’s quarterfinal between Manchester City and Real Madrid.

The latest: Manchester City hosts an injury-riddled Madrid side, missing three of its top centre-backs. Afterwards, Celtic puts its undefeated home record at stake against Bayern Munich.

Check out the latest Champions League schedule for Feb. 11-12.

Champions League schedule: Knockout phase playoffs

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Brest vs. PSG

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Juventus vs. PSV

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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

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Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund

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Club Brugge vs. Atalanta

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AS Monaco vs. Benfica

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Celtic vs. Bayern Munich

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Feyenoord vs. AC Milan

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Betting insights

Brest finished 18th in the table with 13 points and a -1 goal differential. History doesn’t favour the home team, who’s winless in 20 matches against Ligue 1 foes PSG (0-2-18). The Parisians secured a dominant 5-2 victory in the previous matchup on Feb. 1.

Manchester City holds a lacklustre 1-2-3 record and a -5 goal differential versus clubs in the Top 24. New additions Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov and Nico Gonzalez will be eligible to compete in the playoff round. Real Madrid has scored 3+ goals in each of its last three matches in the competition. The two European powerhouses clashed in the 2024 Champions League quarter-final, with Real Madrid advancing in a penalty shootout.

Sporting CP has an 8-4-6 record in all competitions since Ruben Amorim’s departure in November. The Portuguese club hosts Borussia Dortmund, under newly-appointed manager Niko Kovac. The Black and Yellows have failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 matches.

Club Brugge is the lowest-scoring side to finish in the Top 24, netting just seven goals. Meanwhile, Atalanta posted the second-highest expected goals figure (21.2) in the competition. This is the first-ever meeting between the two clubs.

Celtic remain unbeaten and have scored in every home fixture this season. However, they’re sizable underdogs to a Bayern Munich side that recorded the highest xG figure (24.5) in the league phase. The German giants sport a +43 goal differential in the Bundesliga this season, too.

Rockets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Feb. 6: Bet on Brooks, T-Wolves on the alt-spread

The Houston Rockets, on a four-game losing skid, face the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at the Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is gradually climbing up the Western Conference standings, and I like its chances to make things competitive against a struggling Rockets team. My +350 SGP also includes player props on Dillon Brooks and Naz Reid.

Check out my Rockets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 6.

Rockets vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +7.5 | Brooks over 14.5 points/rebounds | Reid 3+ threes (+350)

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Timberwolves +7.5 (-315): These two teams are trending in opposite directions.

After a hot start to the New Year, the Rockets look to be running out of fuel, losing their last four games, including two to the mediocre Brooklyn Nets.

The Timberwolves are 6-2 SU in their last eight games, with their offence, led by superstar Anthony Edwards, firing on all cylinders in 2025.

5th in offensive rating (119.1)
7th in net rating (+5.9)
1st in 3PT% (40.5)

Minnesota has covered this number in 17 straight games. Meanwhile, the Rockets haven’t won by eight-plus points since Jan. 15.

Chris Finch’s team operates at a slow tempo, and the Rockets lack the elite shooters needed to defeat a defensively sound team by a wide margin.

That’s why I am confident the T-Wolves will keep this game close.

SGP legs

Brooks over 14.5 points/rebounds (-132): Brooks is quietly on a heater, I want to back him while the iron is still hot.

The savvy Canadian continues to play a greater role on the offensive end, especially with Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith sidelined due to injury.

He’s not the most efficient shooter, but his ability to score in various ways makes him dangerous.

Although the T-Wolves are solid defensively, they allow the fourth-most rebounds to small forwards like Brooks. The last time he faced Houston in November, he grabbed 22 points and 3 rebounds.

Plus, Brooks has cashed this prop in six of his last seven games.

Reid 3+ threes (-107): With Julius Randle (groin) out, Reid has been taking full advantage of his opportunity as a starter.

In three starts this season, he’s averaging 3.7 made three-pointers on 8.3 attempts.

The reigning Sixth Man of the Year buried four triples en route to a 22-point performance last night.

Reid has improved his shooting efficiency over the years, hitting at a career-high 42.2 clip from three. Even if the efficiency drops, Reid should hit this on just volume alone.

He has reached this mark in 10 of his past 13 games.

Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET 02/06/2025

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Grizzlies vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 5: Bet on Edey to dominate the paint in a win

The surging Memphis Grizzlies visit the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors have been profitable as home underdogs, but they welcome a buzzsaw in the Grizzlies, who I expect to win by a few possessions. To round out the +310 SGP, I am backing Toronto native Zach Edey to have a big game, while fading Gradey Dick.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 5.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Grizzlies -5.5 | Edey over 18.5 points/rebounds | Dicks under 2.5 threes (+310)

Grizzlies -5.5 (-210): The Raptors have flourished at home this season, but the Grizzlies present a bad matchup.

It’s worth noting that centre Jakob Poeltl left Tuesday’s game against the New York Knicks due to a right hip pointer issue. That’s not an injury any player can recover from overnight.

Without the big man, the Raps could get destroyed on the boards — an area the Grizzlies have exploited before.

The first matchup on Boxing Day saw Memphis explode for 155 points against an under-sized Raptors squad.

Led by a menacing front court of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, the Grizzlies are near the top in several big-man stats.

2nd in offensive rebounds (13.1 per game)
3rd in defensive rebounds (31.2 per game)
2nd in points in paint (57.6 per game)
2nd in second-chance points (16.9 per game)

Memphis is 9-1 SU over its last 10 games, with the lone defeat against the Knicks. Plus, the side is 7-3 ATS during that stretch.

With the Raptors entering the second game of a back-to-back and likely missing a few key players, I am not optimistic about their chances tonight.

Other SGP legs

Edey over 18.5 points/rebounds (-109): It wasn’t long since Edey posted a career-high 16 rebounds against the Raptors.

Standing at an imposing 7-foot-4, the rookie centre is evolving into one of the league’s better rim protectors.

Edey has eclipsed this mark in five of his past six games, highlighted by a stellar performance against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.

The hometown boy will be eager to ball out in front of family and friends, and he’s got a favourable matchup to do it tonight.

Centres like Karl-Anthony Towns, Ivica Zubac, and Nikola Vucevic have put up big numbers against the Raptors in recent games.

Dick under 2.5 threes (-165): While he’s had flashes of brilliance, Dick hasn’t been letting it fly from distance recently.

Dick has failed to exceed this mark in each of his last 10 games, attempting 4.7 3s per game in that stretch.

I don’t expect that streak to snap against the Grizzlies, who are ranked sixth at defending the three-point shot (35.1%).

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. on 02/05/25.

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Liverpool vs. Tottenham same-game parlay predictions Feb. 6: Back the Reds in EFL semi-final clash

Liverpool head back to Anfield down 1-0 to Tottenham in the Carabao Cup semi-final on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Liverpool will need to attack aggressively to keep its treble hopes alive, and I expect they’ll pile up goals against an injury-riddled Spurs team. Player props on Mohamed Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai round out the +335 SGP.

Check out my Liverpool vs. Tottenham same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 6.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham predictions

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Parlay: Liverpool over 2.5 total goals | Salah to score | Szoboszlai over 0.5 shots on target (+335)

Liverpool over 2.5 total goals (-175): Liverpool was caught napping in the first leg, but I expect the Premier League leaders to attack aggressively from the outset.

Although three goals seem a lot on paper, the Reds have the attacking firepower to get the job done. Here are their attacking stats in league play:

1st in expected goals (2.37 per 90)
1st in shots on target (6.91 per 90)
1st in big chances
2nd in touches inside the box

On the flip side, Tottenham’s backline is battered by injuries and leaking goals at will.

Although centre-back Mickey van de Ven is back from injury, a torn ACL to Radu Dragusin further stretches the list.

In their last two league matches, the Reds smoked the Spurs for 10 combined goals on 9.0 expected goals.

With Arne Slot likely planning for an aggressive attack, I fancy their chances to score a flurry of goals.

SGP legs

Salah to score (-124): If Liverpool runs up the goals tally, you can expect one will come from the Egyptian King.

Salah is arguably the best attacker in the Premier League, and the stats are telling.

Top scorer in the EPL with 21 goals
1st in xG per 90 (0.81)
2nd in shots on target (43)

His best performance of the season came against the Spurs in December, scoring twice in the 6-3 victory.

The Liverpool captain is also tasked as the main penalty-taker, adding further value bonus to this prop.

In most circumstances, you won’t get rich laying a -124 price for anyone to score. But it makes sense here.

Szoboszlai over 0.5 shots on target (-120): Szoboszlai is a key component to Liverpool’s high-octane attack.

Although the surface stats aren’t eye-popping, the Hungarian midfielder possesses a cannon for a leg.

One of the standout skills is his ability to deliver dangerous balls into the box or on goal from free-kicks. And I predict he gets a few chances here, given the likelihood that Liverpool dominates possession.

Szoboszlai has cashed this prop in seven of his past eight league starts, averaging 4.25 shots during that stretch.

Picks made at 2:24 p.m. on 2/04/25.

Knicks vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 4: Back Towns, Raptors on alt-spread

The New York Knicks play the second game of a back-to-back when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Knicks haven’t fared well on a rest disadvantage, so I am playing the surging Raptors on the alt-spread. To round out the +375 SGP, I have player props on Karl-Anthony Towns and Immanuel Quickley.

Check out my Knicks vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 4.

Knicks vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +8.5 | Towns over 23.5 points | Quickley 2+ threes (+325)

Raptors +8.5 (-188): Toronto dropped all three matchups to the Knicks this season, but several factors have me leaning toward them tonight.

Raptors are 16-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

They are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.

Toronto is second in defensive rating (105.6) over the last three weeks.

The Raps are playing their best basketball now that Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Quickley are reunited on the court.

This a tough spot for the Knicks, whose starters averaged 37.8 minutes in the comeback victory over the Houston Rockets (124-118) last night.

New York are 1-5 ATS on no rest, largely due to their lack of bench depth, which will be further tested if O.G. Anunoby (foot sprain) doesn’t play.

Other SGP legs

Towns over 23.5 points (-120): Towns is going through a mid-season slump, but he has feasted on the Raptors this season.

The five-time All-Star exceeded the 23.5-point mark in all three games vs. Toronto.

Although the Raps have made notable strides with their perimeter defence, KAT’s seven-foot frame and shooting range pose a daunting challenge for any team.

Big men like Nikola Vucevic and Ivica Zubac have had success against them in recent games.

This is a good time to buy low on the Knicks all-star.

Quickley 2+ threes (-163): Quickley will be determined to ball out against his former team.

Since joining the Raps, he has cashed this prop in both games played against the Knicks. In addition, Quickley drained two-plus threes in five of his last eight games, averaging 6.2 attempts during that stretch.

The Knicks, meanwhile, are rock-bottom at defending the three-point shot (37.8%) and could be without their best defender in Anunoby.

Quickley has struggled to stay on the court this season, but when healthy, the 25-year-old point guard has proven to be a consistent scoring threat.

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. on 02/04/25.

Knicks vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 4: Back Towns, Raptors on alt-spread

The New York Knicks play the second game of a back-to-back when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Knicks haven’t fared well on a rest disadvantage, so I am playing the surging Raptors on the alt-spread. To round out the +325 SGP, I have player props on Karl-Anthony Towns and Immanuel Quickley.

Check out my Knicks vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 4.

Knicks vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +8.5 | Towns over 23.5 points | Quickley 2+ threes (+325)

Raptors +8.5 (-240): Toronto dropped all three matchups to the Knicks this season, but several factors have me leaning toward them tonight.

Raptors are 16-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

They are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.

Toronto is second in defensive rating (105.6) over the last three weeks.

The Raps are playing their best basketball now that Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Quickley are reunited on the court.

This a tough spot for the Knicks, whose starters averaged 37.8 minutes in the comeback victory over the Houston Rockets (124-118) last night.

New York are 1-5 ATS on no rest, largely due to their lack of bench depth, which will be further tested if O.G. Anunoby (foot sprain) doesn’t play.

Other SGP legs

Towns over 23.5 points (-117): Towns is going through a mid-season slump, but he has feasted on the Raptors this season.

The five-time All-Star exceeded the 23.5-point mark in all three games vs. Toronto.

Although the Raps have made notable strides with their perimeter defence, KAT’s seven-foot frame and shooting range pose a daunting challenge for any team.

Big men like Nikola Vucevic and Ivica Zubac have had success against them in recent games.

This is a good time to buy low on the Knicks all-star.

Quickley 2+ threes (-167): Quickley will be determined to ball out against his former team.

Since joining the Raps, he has cashed this prop in both games played against the Knicks. In addition, Quickley drained two-plus threes in five of his last eight games, averaging 6.2 attempts during that stretch.

The Knicks, meanwhile, are rock-bottom at defending the three-point shot (37.8%) and could be without their best defender in Anunoby.

Quickley has struggled to stay on the court this season, but when healthy, the 25-year-old point guard has proven to be a consistent scoring threat.

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. on 02/04/25.

Suns vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 3: Bet on Booker, Portland to cover alt-spread

The Portland Trail Blazers welcome back the Phoenix Suns in a rematch from Saturday’s showdown.

The pregame narrative: Portland has been a tough challenge for Phoenix, and I expect that to continue on Monday night. This +330 SGP also features player props on Devin Booker and Toumani Camara.

Check out my Suns vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 3.

Suns vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Trail Blazers +7.5 | Booker 25+ points | Camara over 16.5 points/rebounds (+330)

Trail Blazers +7.5 (-190): If you’ve been backing the Blazers over the last few weeks, you’ve been cashing in big.

Eight straight ATS victories.

7-1 SU in their last eight … with every win coming as an underdog. The lone defeat came against Oklahoma City.

Portland dominated Phoenix 127-108 on Saturday, in which they led for nearly the entire game. Plus, the Blazers covered the spread in all three head-to-head contests this season.

Although the Suns are a star-packed squad, they struggle to produce on the road, holding a lacklustre 10-14 record away from Arizona.

Phoenix needs to respond to stay within the Western Conference playoff chase, but I see this as a competitive matchup.

SGP legs

Booker 25+ points (-200): This pick from Saturday’s SGP piece cashed with ease, and I see no reason why he can’t do it again.

Booker just dropped 37 points against these Blazers over the weekend. Also, he’s reached this mark in 10 of his past 12 games, averaging 29.8 points during that stretch.

Tonight, the star guard could etch his name in the history books.

A 23+ point performance will move him past the late Walter Davis (15,666 points) to become the Suns’ all-time leading scorer.

You can almost always bank on Booker to put up points, no matter the matchup.

Camara over 16.5 points/rebounds (-104): Camara is developing into a promising player for Portland, and I believe he’s still flying under the radar.

In the last 10 games, the 24-year-old Belgian is shooting 54.9% from the field and 38.5% from behind the arc.

Against a below-average defensive team like the Suns, Camara can use his 7-foot wingspan to dominate the boards and collect rebounds.

He’s eclipsed this mark in five of his last six games, averaging 21.8 points/rebounds during that stretch. And he comes off a double-double performance over the Blazers on Saturday.

Picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET 02/03/2025

AC Milan vs. Inter SGP predictions Feb. 2: Back Inter to win Serie A Milan derby

A highly anticipated Serie A match on Sunday sees AC Milan take on their intercity rivals Inter Milan.

The pregame narrative: Inter is aiming to defend the Scudetto for a second consecutive season and I expect the club to defeat battered arch-rivals AC Milan. To round out the same-game parlay, I added player props on Lautaro Martinez and Tijjani Reijnders.

Check out my AC Milan vs. Inter SGP predictions for the Milan derby on Feb. 2.

AC Milan vs. Inter predictions

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Parlay: Inter to win | Martinez over 0.5 shots on target | Reijnders over 1.5 shots (+310)

Inter to win (+100): These two rivals are trending in opposite directions and I believe there’s value in backing Inter to win.

This is a double revenge spot for the Nerazzurri, who’ve fallen twice to AC Milan this season.

The most recent clash on Jan. 6 saw Sergio Conceicao’s side recover from a 2-0 deficit. But it hasn’t been all smooth sailing since then.

Opponents — including lower-tier sides like Parma and Dinamo Zagreb — are easily creating scoring chances against Milan’s backline, which has kept just one clean sheet in its last eight overall matches.

It has sparked many reports, indicating that many of Milan’s players are unhappy with the new manager and his coaching methods.

The downturn comes at a bad time, as the club faces an Inter side that tops the league in several key attacking metrics.

1st in expected goals (1.97 per 90)
1st in shots on goal (5.8 per 90)
1st in big scoring chances (3.8 per 90)
1st in box entries (31.3 per 90)

In addition, Simone Inzaghi’s side boasts one of the strongest defences in Europe.

Against the 3-5-2 formation, opponents often find difficulty penetrating the backline led by Italian internationals Federico Dimarco and Alessandro Bastoni.

Inter has an impressive 19 clean sheets in all competitions.

SGP legs

Martinez 0.5 shots on target (-200): The Milan Derby wouldn’t be complete without Inter’s top striker balling out.

Martinez is one of the most clinical finishers in the sport and continues to prove it.

15 goals in all competitions this season
Team-high 3.4 shots per 90
Shot on target in his last 6 league matches

The Argentine striker has flourished in past derbies.

A goal here would push Martinez to double digits against AC Milan, joining an exclusive group of Inter legends Guiseppe Meazza (12) and Stefano Nyers (11).

Martinez also serves as the club’s main penalty-taker, adding further value to this prop.

Reijnders over 1.5 shots (-175): Reijnders has developed into a legit scoring threat for AC Milan.

With Rafael Leao struggling to find consistency, the Dutch international has risen to the occasion in key moments.

Tied for team lead in goals (6)
Averaging 2.2 shots per 90

Inter’s backline sees 66% of shot attempts from the middle, an area where Reijnders inflicts damage.

The last derby match saw the Dutchman rip four shots in the 77 minutes he was on the pitch.

Picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 01/31/25.

Bulls vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 31: Back the Raptors to defeat the Bulls on Friday

The Toronto Raptors look to grab a six-game win streak on Friday when they host the Chicago Bulls.

The pregame narrative: The surging Raptors are playing like a playoff-calibre team, and I say they keep their win streak alive with a home victory. To round out the SGP, I have props on Scottie Barnes and Josh Giddey.

Check out my Bulls vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 31.

Bulls vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Raptors moneyline + Barnes over 19.5 points + Giddey under 12.5 points (+285)

Raptors moneyline (-167): As hard as it is to believe, the Raptors are currently the hottest team in the league, largely thanks to their stellar defensive play.

Here are their stats in the last three weeks:

2nd in defensive rating (105.2)
2nd in opponent FG% (43.9)
6th in plus-minus (+7.1)

Meanwhile, the Bulls are enduring their roughest stretch of the season, having won just three of their last 12 games. And they’ll be without Zach Lavine due to personal matters.

This is a revenge spot for the Raps, who fell 122-121 in the first matchup in December while missing Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley.

They also play their best ball at home, with an 11-13 record, compared to a 4-19 record on the road.

Other SGP legs

Barnes over 19.5 points (-215): Barnes is the driving force behind the Raptors’ surprising turnaround.

I don’t expect the star forward to slow down against a below-average Bulls defence.

Chicago allows a league-worst 55.9 PPG in the paint, an area where Barnes thrives.
Power forwards are averaging 24.6 PPG against the Bulls, per Fantasy Pros.

He’s scored 20+ points in each of his last four games. And the potential return of Quickley in the lineup only gives Barnes more scoring opportunities.

Giddey under 12.5 points (-105): Even with LaVine out in the last game, Giddey barely saw an increase in his shooting rate.

Although the Aussie guard has elevated his game as a playmaker, he remains an inefficient shooter and isn’t trusted to take on a bigger scoring role.

Giddey is averaging a career-low 9.9 shot attempts per game in his first season with Chicago.

On the road, he is averaging just 10.4 PPG in 21 games.

Giddey remains the fourth or fifth scoring option, behind Nikola Vucevic, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu.

Moreover, he’s failed to exceed 12.5 points in 11 of his last 13 games.

Picks made at 10:54 a.m. on 01/31/25.

EPL Matchday 24 picks and predictions: Bet on Arsenal to defeat rival Manchester City

I have two bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate, with one focused on the Arsenal and Manchester City rivalry.

The pregame narrative: The marquee match sees Arsenal host rivals Manchester City, and I say there’s value in backing the Gunners to win at plus-money odds. Before that, take Nottingham Forest to bounce back with a win over Brighton at home.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 24 picks.

EPL Matchday 24 picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (+110)

Manchester City has slowly turned things around, with newly-added Omar Marmoush giving the attack a much-needed spark. But… let’s back up the hype train just a bit.

Defensive issues remain a big worry for this team.

8.06 xG in the last five league matches
26 shots allowed vs. PSG last week (4-2 loss)

Simply put, the Citizens are too slow to be effective in the counter-press, with opponents finding more success at creating scoring chances.

Arsenal doesn’t possess the same attacking punch without star winger Bukayo Saka but remains capable of exposing City’s defensive weaknesses.

A matchup advantage for the Gunners is in midfield, where they often control play with intelligent passes while baiting opponents into pressing them.

Counterattacking is not often a feature in Mikel Arteta’s game plan, but it could be a sneaky weapon in this fixture.

Arsenal have converted 30.8% of fast break shots (4-for-13). Meanwhile, City allows the fourth-most shots in transition.

In addition, the Gunners remain the only club to be unbeaten at home, with a 7-4-0 record this season.

At plus-money odds, backing Arsenal on the money line offers good value.

Key stat: Man City ranks 15th in big-scoring chances allowed (2.9 per 90).

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest draw no bet (-138): This is a bounce-back spot for Nottingham Forest to at least get a result.

The Tricky Trees saw their eight-game unbeaten streak end against a flying Bournemouth side. But the Seagulls don’t pose the same threat.

Brighton was shut out by Everton last week, registering just a single shot on target despite controlling possession.

The offence is ranked 12th in non-penalty xG (1.34 per 90) and 11th in big-scoring chances. Meanwhile, Forest is the second-best team in limiting big scoring chances.

Under Nuno Espiritu Santo, its plan in attack is to win the ball in defensive areas and create chances on the counter — something Brighton is vulnerable to.

Nuno’s side must get back on track to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. And I have trouble believing Brighton can find tons of scoring success off a staunch backline like Forest’s.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. on 01/30/25.