Chris Toman

Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert highlights a chunky five-pack of pick recommendations for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert has an excellent matchup and is at home, a great pitcher’s park where he’s thrived this year. I expect him to work deep and carve up the St. Louis Cardinals.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 10, featuring predictions on Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, Logan Allen and Bobby Witt Jr.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gilbert over 17.5 outs (-150)

I don’t blame you if you don’t like the price, but it’s a lot worse elsewhere.

Gilbert has a dynamite matchup vs. the Cardinals, who are dead last in MLB in wRC+ since the all-star break.

St. Louis has gotten on base at a sub-.300 clip in the second half, which also ranks 30th among the MLB clubs.

Now factor in this game is at T-Mobile Park, arguably the No. 1 pitching environment in baseball, and I’m not expecting this to be a night where the Cardinals’ offence gets going.

• Gilbert has been dominant at home in Seattle, pitching to a 2.15 ERA and holding opponents to a .141 batting average.

• Since getting obliterated Aug. 18, Gilbert has thrown six innings in three consecutive starts, allowing five total runs while striking out 26 and walking four.

Key stat: Gilbert is 5-2 vs. this line since the start of August.

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Betts over 1.5 total bases (-105): This marks the third straight night I’ve been in on this prop. Until I’m given good reason not to touch Betts around even money, I’ll keep playing him on this market. 

And Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland is not good enough reason. 

Freeland is coming off a dominant start against the San Diego Padres (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K). And he has handled Betts well over a large sample (.205 BA in 41 career plate appearances) in the past. 

But Betts is cooking and I’m all aboard the Mookie train. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers star is having his best stretch of the season, batting .300/.364/.580 over the last 15 days.

Going back a bit further, Betts has cleared this line 18 times in his last 30 games.

Witt to score (-104): The Kansas City Royals star has been slow to start the month but is coming off an excellent August and remains one of the most dynamic hitters in the sport.

I like his chances against Allen, the Cleveland Guardians southpaw who has been hit significantly harder by righties over his three-year career.

Witt has thrived with the platoon advantage (.325 BA, .391 OBP) and has consistently done his part to be a scoring threat on a nightly basis.

The shortstop has recorded two-plus bases more frequently than any player this season, per Team Rankings, and is getting on base at a .368 clip in the second half.

MLB prop bets: Wednesday’s best pitching props

Allen under 17.5 outs (-115): A good pitcher’s park against a weak offence works in Allen’s favour tonight.

But the factors working against him are why I’m on this under.

• Allen has made six starts since August, clearing this line once.

• He has a 5.87 ERA over that six-game stretch and has allowed 17 runs over his last three outings.

• Allen has gone under this total in 17 of his 26 starts.

On top of that, Cleveland has a strong bullpen (No. 5 in second-half ERA) and is in the wild-card hunt.

The Guardians have gotten eight innings out of their starters in consecutive games, so that excellent bullpen should be well-rested and ready to be deployed.

Sale over 6.5 Ks (-118): This is all about Sale, not his opponent, the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago is a difficult matchup on K props, but I’m focusing on Sale’s upside here.

The veteran lefty has made two starts since coming off the injured list and dominated both:

• Vs. SEA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 9 K
• @ PHI: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K

• Sale vs. a 6.5 K line: 6-0 over his last six and 13-4 on the season.

• He’s hovering or above the 90th percentile in chase, whiff and K rates.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings, the only arms with a higher K% are Gilbert, Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal.

MLB prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

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For the second consecutive day, Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts headlines Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts is hot and has a juicy matchup against Colorado Rockies righty German Marquez, who also finds himself in today’s recommendations.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 9, featuring predictions on Daulton Varsho and Spencer Strider.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts over 1.5 total bases (-105)

Los Angeles was quiet last night (three runs, four hits) against righty Chase Dollander and the Rockies’ bullpen, but that’s no reason to shy away from Tuesday’s matchup.

• Marquez has a 6.19 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 22 starts. 

• He’s predictably been awful at home (6.45 ERA, .321 opponents’ batting average), but has been nearly as bad on the road (5.95, .315). 

• Marquez has been crushed by both lefty (.532 slugging) and righty hitters (.521).

Colorado’s bullpen has by far the worst ERA (6.02) in the majors, and it’s been even worse in the second half. 

As for Betts, he’s enjoying his best stretch of the season. 

The eight-time all-star is batting .328 and slugging .504 over his last 30 games.

He’s seen Marquez a good amount, batting .308 in 29 career plate appearances.

Key stat: Betts has topped this line 18 times over his 30-game heater.

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Varsho 1+ RBI (+170): The Toronto Blue Jays see Houston Astros righty Luis Garcia, who threw well in his season debut and is making his second start of the year. 

I’m going to keep the focus here on Varsho, who’s hitting the ball with authority and punishing right-handers.

• Varsho has an incredible 18 homers in 150 at-bats vs. righties, slugging a robust .693. 

• Batting primarily out of the No. 5 spot for MLB’s No. 2 team in second-half wRC+, Varsho has 47 RBI in 54 games. 

Varsho has started September on a tear, hitting three homers with a 1.210 OPS. 

Looking for more Astros vs. Blue Jays recommendations? See Jordan Horrobin’s best Blue Jays picks.

Best MLB pitching props

Marquez under 3.5 strikeouts (-117): There’s big blowup potential against the Dodgers, who returned Max Muncy last night and are supposed to have Will Smith back in the lineup today. 

Add that pair to Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, and this lineup is a nightmare for even the best of pitchers.

Marquez is averaging under five innings per start and has one of the lowest strikeout rates among starters.

Only six of 116 pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings have a lower K% than Marquez. 

The Rockies veteran has gone under this light line in 14 of 22 starts.

Strider under 17.5 outs (-130): The Atlanta Braves’ power arm hasn’t been right in his comeback season from Tommy John.

Strider has shown flashes but has been far too inconsistent, and his fastball velocity has diminished considerably. So has his K rate (24.2% compared to 36%+ in 2022/23).

His first start out of the all-star break was a gem, continuing a strong finish to the first half. But it’s been downhill since then.

• Strider has a 7.75 ERA (7.09 FIP) over his last seven starts.

• He has allowed 10 homers over those outings, striking out just 24 in 33.2 innings.

While the lack of Ks can theoretically allow him to work deeper by keeping his pitch count down, it simply hasn’t mattered. He’s 1-6 vs. this line since July 23.

Strider has been hit harder than ever before and is coming off a five-inning start vs. the same Chicago Cubs he’ll see tonight.

His line last time out: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

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Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts headlines Monday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts is having a down year but is currently enjoying one of his best stretches of the season. I expect him to stay hot against the weak pitching he’ll see from the Colorado Rockies tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 8, featuring predictions on Ryan Bergert, Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts over 1.5 total bases (+106)

Betts has awoken at a critical time for the Dodgers, who are clinging to a one-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West. 

This will go down as the worst season of Betts’ fantastic career, but he’s been hitting well for the last month and is poised to end the year in good form. 

Since going 0-for-20 over a five-game stretch into early August, Betts has done this: 

• .330/.395/.513 in 29 games 
• 5 of his 16 homers 
• Averaging 2 total bases/game 

Betts is 18-11 vs. this line over that stretch and has cleared it in five of six games this month. 

His Dodgers see Chase Dollander and the Colorado Rockies tonight. 

The rookie Dollander has elite velocity, but his fastball has been clobbered. He’s been far better outside of his home park, Coors Field, but still enters with several below-average metrics and a 6.77 ERA. 

Dollander has pitched poorly in two starts vs. Los Angeles, which will also get a crack at MLB’s worst bullpen by second-half ERA (6.02).

Key stat: Betts has a 1.011 OPS over the last 15 days.

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Bergert over 15.5 outs (+104): The right-hander has been rolling since joining the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline. 

And tonight he’ll get a weak offence at a pitcher’s park, providing good value on a light line at plus money. 

• Bergert has a 2.43 ERA in six starts with Kansas City, allowing two runs or fewer in every outing. 

• Over those six outings, he’s 5-1 against this line with a 0.99 WHIP and above-average K rate. 

Bergert gets the Cleveland Guardians, who are 28th in MLB in wRC+ (29th in the second half).

Progressive Field is a friendly pitching environment that’s been unkind to the Guardians. No team has scored fewer runs at home this year than Cleveland.

Rodriguez over 1.5 total bases (+100): I’m ending today’s selections with picks on two Seattle Mariners, who see Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

• Rodriguez has been on a tear, hitting .333/.348/.634 since the start of August.

• He has 11 homers and 33 RBI, averaging 2.5 total bases per game over that stretch.

Mikolas is among the most hittable starters in the game. He rarely walks batters and has bottom-of-the-barrel whiff/K numbers.

Rodriguez is 8-3 vs. this line over his last 11 games.

Naylor 1+ RBI (+165): Left-handed batters are hitting .280 and slugging .507 off Mikolas, who gets a great pitcher’s venue tonight (T-Mobile Park) but has been terrible on the road.

Mikolas has a 6.79 ERA in 13 road starts, and opponents are hitting .327 off him.

Naylor hits for average, doesn’t strike out much, has a platoon advantage, and occupies a middle-of-the-order spot.

He’s slugging .625 to start the month. I like his chances of driving one in hitting behind bats like Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena.

MLB prop picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

A play on southpaw Robbie Ray is my top MLB prop pick recommendation on Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ray pitches at Coors Field, but I see value on a light line that he’s done well against this season. I’m also backing a pair of hitters who have solid matchups tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 3, featuring predictions on Ian Happ and Yordan Alvarez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Ray over 15.5 outs (-115)

The left-hander is having his worst month of the season in terms of ERA, and his K rate has plummeted in the second half. 

Add in an unforgiving venue, and tonight’s assignment is not the easiest one he’s had this season.

That said, Ray has generally beaten this line, and he’ll attempt to do it against one of the sport’s weakest offences. 

• Ray has failed to clear 15.5 outs in his last two starts. But he was 9-1 against this number in his 10 outings before that. 

• The Colorado Rockies’ offence has been 25% below league average over the last 30 days, ranking second-last in the majors in wRC+.

• On the season, they’re dead last in wRC+ and second from the bottom in K rate and on-base percentage. 

Coors Field presents its challenges, but the Rockies are an excellent matchup for nearly any pitcher. 

Ray is having a strong year, sporting the second-lowest HR/9 rate of his career, an above-average K rate and a 3.18 ERA. 

While a blowup at Coors is always a possibility, Ray could just as easily dominate the Rockies. This line just calls for him to be competent.

Key stat: Ray is 20-8 vs. this line in 2025.

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Happ over 1.5 total bases (+135) & 1+ RBI (+195): The weather in Chicago is expected to be on the uglier side. But the matchup is excellent, and Happ is on a heater. 

Happ and the Cubs get Atlanta Braves righty Bryce Elder, who sports a 5.85 ERA and below-average metrics across the board.

Elder has been hammered in consecutive seasons, and Atlanta’s bullpen has been demolished in the second half (5.28 ERA, 27th in MLB). 

As for Happ, he’s responded in a big way after a dreadful July. 

• Happ has a .900 OPS over the last 30 days (.284/.400/.500 line).

• He has a 1.014 OPS over the last 15 days (.320/.414/.600). 

• Over the last week, the switch-hitter is batting a blistering .440/.481/.920. 

Happ generally slots in the No. 4-6 spots in the Cubs’ lineup, providing him with great opportunities to drive in runs.

He has an RBI in six consecutive games and has recorded two-plus bases five times in his last seven contests.

Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+100): Alvarez and the Houston Astros get New York Yankees right-hander Will Warren on Wednesday.

Warren has been a productive member of the Yanks’ rotation. But left-handed batters have hit him well, and he’s slowed down in the second half.

• Lefties are batting .270 with an .806 OPS vs. Warren compared to .222 and .630 for righties.

• Warren’s home run rate has soared in the second half. His sparkling K rate from the first half (26.7%) has been below league average post-all-star break (20.6%).

Alvarez has missed nearly the entire season, but the multi-time all-star is batting .333/.519/.500 in seven games since returning in late August.

MLB prop picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 09/03/2025.

Starting pitchers Dean Kremer and German Marquez headline Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Kremer has been ultra-consistent for the Baltimore Orioles and I’m expecting another solid outing from him tonight vs. the San Francisco Giants. As for Marquez, he’s a fade at Coors Field in his first start back from the injured list.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 29, featuring a prediction on Carlos Correa.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kremer over 4.5 Ks (-132)

Kremer has been eating innings for the Orioles and gets a pretty soft landing in San Francisco tonight.

The Giants have been a league-average offence in the second half but their home stadium, Oracle Park, is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. 

Kremer should be able to work deep, giving him plenty of chances to clear this modest total. 

San Francisco has the sixth-highest K rate in the second half and has struck out at an above-average clip vs. righties this season.

Kremer’s K rate has ticked up in the second half and he’s consistently been beating this number.

Key stat: Kremer has five-plus strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts.

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Marquez under 14.5 outs (-113): The Rockies got surprisingly good length out of their starters during this week’s three-game series vs. the Houston Astros. 

All three starters worked six innings apiece, giving Colorado’s overworked and underperforming bullpen some additional rest following Monday’s off day. 

Marquez will make his first start in over a month after landing on the injured list with a biceps injury. 

He did make two rehab assignments, working three innings in his first outing and going 4.1 frames on Aug. 24. 

• The Chicago Cubs’ lineup has sputtered in the second half, but this is still a top-10 offence on the season (sixth in wRC+, seventh in homers) that will enjoy Coors Field. 

• Marquez misses bats at a well-below-average rate, so he’ll be playing a dangerous game allowing balls in play at MLB’s most hitter-friendly spot.

• The righty has a 5.67 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in just under 100 innings this season.

Correa over 1.5 total bases (+110): The Astros third baseman is coming off a disappointing series. He enjoyed some plus matchups vs. the Rockies and came out of it with one hit in 11 at-bats.

That said, he’s been hitting the ball significantly better since rejoining the Astros from the Minnesota Twins.

And he’ll enjoy a platoon advantage, which has served him well this season, especially in the power department (.481 SLG vs. LHPs; .373 vs. RHPs).

• Correa is batting .319/.385/.447 in August.

• His OPS, over 24 games with the Astros, is .831 compared to a .704 mark with the Twins.

Houston gets Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson, who has actually fared much better against right-handed bats but has been dreadful on the road.

Anderson has a 5.74 ERA in 12 road starts and has allowed four-plus runs in five of his last seven outings. Over that stretch, he’s surrendered 12 homers.

MLB prop picks made at 12:45 p.m. ET on 08/29/2025.