Chris Toman

Two of my three MLB prop picks for Thursday come from the last game of the night between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The rivals collide in L.A. and I like two of the game’s biggest stars to do damage. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are sizzling ahead of tonight’s fourth meeting this season vs. Giants ace Logan Webb.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 18, featuring a prediction on Cincinnati Reds starter Hunter Greene.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Greene under 6.5 Ks (+115)

The flamethrowing righty could very well come out and punch out double-digit batters, something he’s done twice in six starts since coming off the injured list in mid-August.

But Greene’s upside is severely limited tonight against the Chicago Cubs, a difficult team to retire on strikes.

• Chicago sports the fifth-lowest K rate vs. righties and seventh-lowest in MLB in the second half.

• Greene faced the Cubs way back in May, striking out a season-low two batters over four innings of work.

The 26-year-old has thrown the ball well at home but facing a good lineup at Great American Ball Park is always a concern. It’s been the third-most hitter-friendly spot in MLB over the last three years, per Baseball Savant, and No. 2 in home runs.

Greene has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, too, allowing homers at an above-average rate.

Key stat: Greene started the year 6-1 vs. this number. Since then, he’s gone 4-6.

Embed: #118090

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+104): I keep playing Betts on this market and have no intentions of slowing down, not when it’s plus money.

• Betts is hitting .349/.377/.683 with five homers and 19 RBI in 15 games this month.

• He has a 1.007 OPS over his last 25 contests, averaging 2.4 total bases per game. Betts has topped this line in 15 of those games.

Webb’s a great pitcher but he’s been rocked twice by the Dodgers this season — including his last start — and Betts has had a lot of success vs. him in a fairly large sample.

Betts is slashing .381/.435/.571 with only four strikeouts in 46 career plate appearances against Webb.

Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-112): Ohtani hasn’t seen Webb as much as Betts but the numbers are still fantastic:

• .368/.478/.790 with a pair of bombs in 24 PAs.

That’s simply the icing on the cake. Ohtani especially demolishes righties, is having an even better September than Betts and is very rarely available at this price.

The reigning MVP blasted home run No. 51 last night, No. 50 the night before, and is hitting .333/.465/.737 this month.

Ohtani ranks No. 1 in MLB vs. RHPs in homers (38) and ISO (.376).

MLB prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 09/18/2025.

Two big-name starting pitchers highlight my top MLB prop picks for Wednesday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I have plays on American League starters Kevin Gausman and Jacob deGrom. Gausman has been dynamite and I expect him to continue his second-half surge, while I’m fading deGrom against a division rival.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 17, featuring a prediction on Mookie Betts.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-130)

The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander is coming off his best start of the season — a two-hit shutout against the Houston Astros. 

• It marked the ninth time in 10 second-half starts that Gausman has logged at least six innings. 

• He’s made good on this bet in six of those outings, and upped his K rate by more than 3% post-all-star-break. 

• Gausman has a sparkling 2.25 ERA over that stretch, holding opponents to a .161 batting average. 

Toronto’s bullpen has been worked hard and is shaky, so I’m optimistic Gausman will continue to give the Blue Jays length tonight. 

Read why Jordan Horrobin likes Gausman over 18.5 outs

Going deep would obviously help his chances of clearing this line, but the matchup is strong regardless. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have struck out more often than all but two teams in the second half. And they have the 10th-highest K rate vs. right-handers.

Key stat: Gausman fanned six Rays when he faced them earlier this season and has cleared this line in each of his last six non-injury-impacted starts vs. Tampa.

Embed: #118060

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+125): Betts’ teammate Shohei Ohtani is having a monster end to the season. Don’t let that take away from what Betts is doing.

• Betts is batting .373/.400/.729 in September.

• Ohtani is one of only six players with a higher OPS than Betts this month. But Betts is topping him in slugging and total bases, and has as many homers (five).

The Los Angeles Dodgers have another tough matchup against Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, but he’s been especially difficult on left-handed batters.

Betts is averaging 3.1 total bases per game this month, topping this number in 10 of 14 games. Over his last 30, he’s recorded two-plus bases 18 times.

deGrom under 17.5 outs (-125): The Texas Rangers righty has failed to clear 17.5 outs in five of his last seven starts. One of those games came against the same Astros he’ll see tonight.

He’s 50/50 against this line on the season and is coming off his longest start of the season. 

Texas is still in the wild-card hunt, and I don’t see the club running the oft-injured starter into the ground down the stretch. 

The Rangers have gotten good production from their bullpen all year (fifth in ERA this season, third in September), and the club is off tomorrow. 

Even if heavier usage is required out of the group today, it will have a day to rest on Thursday before closing out the season with a favourable nine-game stretch.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert is featured as the top MLB prop pick for Tuesday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert has been piling up strikeouts and I expect that to continue tonight despite a challenging matchup against the Kansas City Royals.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 16, featuring predictions on Eduardo Rodriguez and Mickey Moniak.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-121)

Gilbert has the No. 1 strikeout rate in MLB among pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings. He routinely blows past this line and is shattering his career-best K rate. 

Getting him on a 5.5 line is almost unheard of, but his opponent is the reason for that.

The Royals have the lowest K rate in MLB in the second half and are one of only three teams to strike out in fewer than 20% of their plate appearances vs. righties this season.

Still, it’s not like Gilbert is getting cakewalks every start. Kansas City is a difficult team to retire on strikes, but I expect one of MLB’s premier arms to once again reach this number. 

Here’s why: 

• Gilbert has topped this line in 19 of 22 starts, good for a dynamite 86% success rate. 

• He provides length, throwing six-plus innings in four of his last six outings, going 5-1 vs. this number over that stretch.

• Gilbert gets the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, a home run-suppressing park. The righty has struggled a bit with homers, so this is a plus that will ideally limit a big inning.

• The Royals aren’t a great offensive team, ranking 25th in on-base percentage and 26th in wRC+. 

This feels like another six-inning start for Gilbert. With that workload, I’ll play him at this number against any team.

Key stat: Gilbert struck out seven Royals over 4.2 innings in July.

Embed: #118017

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Rodriguez over 15.5 outs (-121): Rodriguez isn’t the most trustworthy arm going, but I like him at this line. 

He has seven-inning upside and gets the San Francisco Giants, whom he silenced in his last outing. 

The Giants have been swinging good sticks in the second half but hit right-handers significantly better. Against southpaws, they’re last in MLB in batting average and OBP, and rank 27th in wRC+.

• Rodriguez fired 6.1 scoreless innings against them last week, allowing two hits and striking out six. 

• It marked the third straight start Rodriguez has topped 15.5 outs, and the sixth time in seven outings.

• While Rodriguez has struggled at home this season (5.28 ERA), he has cleared this number in four consecutive starts at Arizona’s Chase Field.

Moniak over 0.5 runs (-105): Miami Marlins righty Eury Perez has had some nice moments in his sophomore season but is struggling to close out the year.

Perez has been terrible on the road (6.44 ERA) and faces the most daunting venue in the game tonight: Coors Field.

I like Moniak to take advantage of the platoon advantage and his home park, both of which he’s done this season.

• The left-handed hitting Moniak is slugging more than 200 points greater vs. righties, and he’s slashing .303/.349/.583 at home.

• He’s batting .317 this month, getting on base at a .364 clip.

Moniak, who has generally been in the No. 2 spot of the lineup, has pop, too. He’s slugging .509 with a career-best 46 extra-base hits.

Following Perez, Colorado will see Miami’s 26th-ranked bullpen in terms of second-half ERA.

MLB prop picks made at 11:55 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

I’m targeting three starting pitchers for Monday’s MLB player prop recommendations.

Today’s MLB props narrative: My best bet is on Carlos Rodon, who has been dealing and giving the New York Yankees innings. I expect him to do it again on the road against the Minnesota Twins.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 15, featuring predictions on Kyle Bradish and Ranger Suarez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rodon over 17.5 outs (-124)

Rodon doesn’t have his elite strikeout numbers from years past, but he’s doing a lot of things well and has stayed on the mound.

The lefty is two innings shy of setting a career-high mark for innings pitched, something he should easily clear tonight.

Rodon enters Monday’s start with strong numbers across the board. And make no mistake, he still misses plenty of bats.

• He has his highest ground-ball rate since 2017 and a .187 opponents’ batting average. The only year he was better was 2021 (.186).

• Rodon has had multiple seasons with a 30% K rate, but he’s still well above average at 26%.

• He’s top 15 among qualified starters in ERA and ranks eighth in xERA (3.29).

• Rodon has allowed two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, putting up a 2.38 ERA over that stretch.

The 32-year-old has topped this line in five of his last six outings, logging 5.2 innings the one time he fell short.

Key stat: Rodon has thrown six-plus innings in 18 of his 30 starts.

Embed: #117985

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-141) & 5.5 Ks (+155): Suarez’s strikeout upside is impossible to ignore. 

Make no mistake, he has one of his most challenging assignments of the season on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But there are harder teams to retire on strikes, and Suarez eats innings, too.

The Philadelphia Phillies southpaw has his best K rate since becoming a full-time starter in 2022 and has been lethal of late.

• Suarez has produced double-digit strikeout totals in three of his last five starts.

• He’s 11th in ERA and top 10 in FIP among starters who have thrown 140-plus innings. His consistency has allowed him to work into the sixth inning in 19 of his 23 starts.

The longer he’s out there, the more chances he has to pile up Ks.

Suarez has recorded five-plus Ks in 17 starts and notched at least six in 13.

Bradish over 5.5 Ks (-104): The Orioles right-hander is showing that he’ll be a huge piece in Baltimore’s rotation next year, assuming he’s healthy.

Bradish has been limited to three starts this season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The results have been super encouraging.

• Vs. PIT: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
• @ SD: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K
• Vs. BOS: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 10 K

That works out to an elite 32.3% K rate.

Before Bradish went down last year, he had a mark of 32.5% over eight starts. That came a year after posting a well-above-average 25.0 K% in the first 30-start year of his career.

Bradish can miss bats and should continue to tonight against the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox have the eighth-highest K rate this month and have struck out at a top-10 clip vs. right-handers this season.

MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Vinnie Pasquantino headlines Friday night’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I love tonight’s matchup for Pasquantino against Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler. Pasquantino is swinging a hot stick, leading to a pair of plus-money plays on him.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 12, featuring predictions on Jackson Holliday and Mookie Betts.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Pasquantino over 1.5 bases (+112) & 1+ RBI (+140)

Pasquantino will have the platoon advantage at a good hitter’s park against a pitcher who has struggled tremendously and was recently designated for assignment. There’s a lot to like here. 

As the No. 3 hitter, Pasquantino will, in all likelihood, hit behind Mike Yastrzemski and Bobby Witt Jr. 

Yastrzemski thrives with a platoon advantage (.363 on-base percentage vs. LHP), and Witt is a hitting machine who has gotten on base at least once in 84% of his games in the second half.

I like Pasquantino to have a shot at driving them in against Buehler, who put up a 5.45 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 23 games before getting cut by the Boston Red Sox.

The Kansas City Royals first baseman has pop, too, easily setting a career-high with 30 homers and counting, and he’s one of nine players with 100-plus RBI this season. 

• Pasquantino is batting .306/.350/.528 in September. He slugged .550+ in both July and August.

• His OPS is more than 200 points greater vs. right-handers, and he’s blasted 25 of his bombs against RHPs.

• Left-handed batters are hitting .317 with an .877 OPS vs. Buehler, and they torched him last year, too.

I see potential for a monster game at Citizens Bank Park.

Key stat: Pasquantino ranks 11th in second-half ISO.

Embed: #117881

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 bases (+128): I’m riding the Mookie train. I’ve played this all week, and this is the best price yet.

There’s reason for that: Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers run into a hot San Francisco Giants team at their pitcher-friendly venue, facing Justin Verlander, who has been throwing great.

On top of that, the Giants’ bullpen has been strong, and Verlander has owned Betts.

Betts has three hits in 32 career plate appearances vs. Verlander (.100/.156.133). But he has only struck out three times and is hitting the ball better than at any point this season.

• The Dodgers star is batting .337/.394/.582 over the last 30 days. He has a 1.221 OPS in September.

• Betts has been crushing it against this line, topping it in seven of nine games this month and 18 of his last 30 contests.

Holliday to score (+120): This is a great price for a leadoff hitter who’s ending the season strong.

Holliday is batting .355/.444/.581 in September, and he’s gotten on base in 12 consecutive games.

He’s scored eight runs over that stretch, including five of his last six contests.

Holliday and the Baltimore Orioles see Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has been great at home but has been hit much harder by lefty bats.

The Orioles’ second baseman has contributed most of his production against righties.

• Vs. RHPs: .267/.340/.422, 13 HR
• Vs. LHPs: .213/.272/.327, 4 HR

Behind Bassitt is a Blue Jays bullpen that’s 26th in ERA (5.17) since the all-star break.

MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

I’m targeting three players for Thursday’s light MLB slate, including San Diego Padres outfielder Ramon Laureano on two markets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Laureano is swinging a hot stick, hits in a run-producing spot, and will enjoy an excellent matchup against the Colorado Rockies.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 11, featuring predictions on Jose Soriano and Stephen Kolek.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kolek over 16.5 outs (-114)

There are several reasons why I like Kolek to hit the over on this prop tonight. Let’s start with his opponent, the Cleveland Guardians. 

• Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last seven games. 

• The Guardians are 28th in wRC+ vs. righties. They’re 27th in wRC+ in the second half. 

• St. Louis is the only team getting on base at a lower clip since the all-star break.

Kolek will enjoy this struggling offence at Progressive Field, a below-average offensive environment. 

While the wind isn’t expected to be strong in Cleveland, it’s expected to be blowing in, potentially weakening the ability to put the ball in the seats. 

And that’s not something that has plagued Kolek anyway.

The right-hander’s HR/9 rate is well below league average, and he doesn’t issue many free passes. Kolek isn’t a big strikeout arm, either. 

Those factors should theoretically allow him to keep his pitch counts down and work deep, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing. 

• Kolek is coming off a seven-inning gem, the longest he’s gone since pitching a shutout in May. 

• The righty has topped this line in four consecutive outings and has allowed a total of five runs over his last three starts.

• On top of that, the Royals used an all-hands-on-deck approach last night, deploying six arms vs. the Guardians.

Key stat: Kolek has worked into the sixth inning in 13 of his 16 starts, clearing this line 10 times.

Embed: #117858

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Soriano over 15.5 outs (-132): The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has thrown the ball really well in three of his last five starts.

In the other two, he was clobbered by the Athletics, including his last outing (eight runs and five walks over 2.1 innings).

Soriano now looks for a rebound at one of the most pitcher-friendly spots in MLB, T-Mobile Park.

The Seattle Mariners have been swinging the bats well, but this is a light line for Soriano, and the Angels went through a slew of bullpen arms in yesterday’s 4-3 win.

Soriano is 7-2. vs. this line over his last nine outings and cleared it in 19 of 29 starts on the season.

Laureano over 1.5 bases (+112) & 1+ RBI (+135): Laureano has been a beast since joining the Padres, batting .304/.360/.551 with 25 RBI in 37 games.

He has a career-best .893 OPS on the season and is one homer shy of the personal-best 24 he blasted back in 2019.

Laureano has hit fifth in every game this month, putting him behind the Padres’ most potent bats, including all-stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.

Getting Colorado’s pitching provides a good opportunity to do damage.

The Rockies are starting McCade Brown, who was demolished by San Diego for six runs on five hits over 1.2 innings last weekend. Brown has a 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP through his first three MLB starts.

Following Brown is a Rockies bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.13 ERA in the second half.

MLB prop picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 09/11/2025.