Chris Toman

The ALCS shifts to Seattle on Wednesday when the Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays for Game 3 at T-Mobile Park.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has quickly fallen down 2-0 after dropping both games at home and will need its big trade deadline acquisition to come through to get back in this series.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks, featuring predictions on starting pitchers Shane Bieber and George Kirby.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks

Best bet: Bieber over 14.5 outs (-120)

Among the biggest reasons I like Bieber to clear this line has nothing to do with him.

• Max Scherzer is lined up to start Game 4 on Thursday and will most certainly be on a super short leash. 

• Scherzer had a rough end to the season and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 24. He has pitched simulated games to stay stretched out after being left off the ALDS roster, but nothing can replicate real action.

• In all likelihood, Thursday will be Scherzer as a quasi-opener in a bullpen-heavy game with a potential Game 5 on Friday. 

• The Blue Jays are entering must-win territory, but an early move to the bullpen in Game 3 seems unwise, if avoidable.

Of course, Bieber has to do his part. He isn’t going to eat innings unless he’s earned it through his performance. 

He didn’t do that in his lone postseason start vs. the New York Yankees, getting lifted after 2.2 innings of three-run ball and hard contact. 

But there’s reason for optimism:

• Bieber allowed two runs or fewer in five of seven regular-season starts and more than three runs once. 

• The right-hander had an excellent K/BB rate, doing a good job handling factors he has the most control over. 

• He struggled to keep the ball in the yard, but T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball and allows home runs at a below-average rate. 

The circumstances and venue are optimal for Bieber, despite the series deficit.

Key stat: Bieber went at least five innings in all seven regular-season starts.

Embed: #119489

Blue Jays best bet

Toronto ML (+110): With no significant starting pitching advantage for Game 3, even if Kirby is in better form than Bieber, the value is with Toronto. 

The Blue Jays had the best offence in the second half of the season and then dismantled the Yankees. Two bad games don’t rewrite the narrative. 

Toronto is a high-contact team that’s going to put the ball in play. That hasn’t mattered much this series, but good things can happen when defences are forced to accumulate the vast majority of outs.

• Four of the top five teams in contact rate made the playoffs. Three of the five with the lowest K rate made the postseason. 

• The Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers were two of those teams. Toronto was No. 1 in the majors in both categories. 

• Toronto has struck out just nine times this series. The Mariners have fanned 25 times. 

So it’s not just Tarik Skubal that’s been blowing smoke by Seattle, which had an LDS-high 27.8% K rate. 

Despite the Mariners’ big pop, the club was unsurprisingly a better offensive club on the road.

At their offensively challenged ballpark, it’s going to be tougher to win games when that pop isn’t playing up as much and the lineup is getting retired on strikes.

MLB pitching prop

Kirby under 4.5 strikeouts (-130): This line is light for good reason.

Starting pitchers are 0-6 against this number vs. Toronto this postseason:

• Luis Gil: 2 Ks
• Max Fried: 1 K
• Carlos Rodon: 2 Ks
• Cam Schlittler: 2 Ks
• Bryce Miller: 3 Ks
• Logan Gilbert: 2 Ks

Those are good strikeout arms, some even elite.

Kirby has been dealing and piling up Ks, hitting this in five straight. But context is important.

• He got a strikeout-prone Tigers team twice in the ALDS.

• His last start in the regular season was against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were sitting several regulars (10 Ks).

• Two starts before that, when he struck out a career-high 14 batters, it came against the Angels, who had the No. 1 K rate in MLB.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 10/15/2025.

Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headlines Wednesday’s postseason prop pick recommendations for MLB’s four-game playoff slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Guerrero has been tearing the cover off the ball and his Blue Jays can advance to the ALCS with a win over the New York Yankees. Three other teams can also punch their tickets to the next round.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for today’s playoff games, featuring a prediction on Freddie Freeman.

MLB prop bets

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB player stats
• MLB standings

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125) & 1+ RBI (+175)

Will the Yankees be more selective pitching to Guerrero tonight? You would think so. And they did intentionally walk him last night, but each situation is unique when it comes to those decisions. 

Here’s what we do know: Guerrero is hitting the ball as well as anyone on the planet. 

In three games this series, he’s batting .615, slugging 1.308 and has a 1.908 OPS. 

• Vladdy has 2+ hits each game.
• He has driven in 2+ runs each game.
• Guerrero has a HR in every game.

The Blue Jays star has mashed at Yankee Stadium throughout his career and he destroyed New York pitching this season. 

Guerrero hit .373/.439/.569 against the Yanks and the lack of meetings against New York starter Cam Schlittler should have no impact on the first baseman’s confidence.

Vladdy has four hits in five career at-bats against Schlittler, the rookie who punched out 12 over eight dominant innings in the wild-card series. 

Schlittler didn’t enjoy the same success against the Blue Jays, who handed him his shortest career start (1.2 innings, five hits, four runs) in September.

He went five innings vs. Toronto in July, allowing seven hits. Schlittler combined for five Ks in those two starts.

Vladdy will likely slot No. 3 in the order, with two capable bats ahead of him in George Springer and Nathan Lukes. 

The flame-throwing Schlittler relies heavily on his fastball-cutter combination, throwing the two pitches nearly 75% of the time. 

Key stat: Guerrero was fourth in MLB, minimum 200 pitches seen, in both expected batting average vs. four-seam fastballs and cutters (per Baseball Savant). 

MLB postseason player props

Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+100): No player in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has seen Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola more than Freeman. 

While the stats aren’t pretty (.237/.326/.368 over 86 plate appearances), I love how much familiarity Freeman will have in this matchup. And he’ll enjoy the platoon advantage. 

Nola started the year injured and had the worst season of his career. He struggled vs. left-handed hitters (.862 OPS), and Freeman is one of the best of them. 

The 2024 World Series MVP ended the year strong, too. 

• Freeman blasted 13 of his 24 homers in the final two months.

• He slugged .561 over that stretch, averaging 2.2 total bases per game.

Freeman will slot behind Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, providing him with a good chance to hit with runners on. Whether it’s Nola or Philadelphia’s relievers, pitchers will likely have to challenge him.

MLB prop picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 10/08/2025.

The ALDS shifts to New York when the Yankees host the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, October 7.

The pregame narrative: Toronto can sweep its way to the ALCS with a victory. The Blue Jays have manhandled their division rival this series, and while I’m not picking a side, I do expect Toronto’s offence to produce yet again.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 3 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Carlos Rodon, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB player stats
• MLB standings

Best bet: Toronto over 3.5 runs (-106)

The Blue Jays aren’t going to put up double digits every game, but this line is highly playable. 

In fact, it feels like a no-brainer.

It’s hard to ignore what Toronto has done to New York in the ALDS: 23 runs on 29 hits. Video game numbers to put the series-favoured Yankees on the brink. 

But it’s beyond those two blowout wins. Toronto was a well-oiled machine during the regular season.

• The Blue Jays were No. 1 in the majors in batting average and on-base percentage. 

• In the second half, the Blue Jays ranked first in wRC+ and runs scored.

Key stat: Toronto averaged 5.01 runs per game, third to the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Blue Jays best bets

Springer to score (-106): If the Blue Jays’ offence is going to continue humming, Springer and Guerrero are two players I want a piece of. Especially at these prices. 

• Springer is the leadoff hitter of this dangerous lineup, and scored 106 runs (tied for third in the AL) while setting a career-best .399 OBP. 

• He led MLB in wRC+ and OBP in the second half, and was second in average and slugging. 

The veteran has been as hot as any hitter for a long stretch now. 

Springer has delivered many postseason homers in his career (demonstrating an ability to cash this himself), and has scored three times through the two games. 

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Springer has faced Rodon more than any Blue Jay, but with mixed results. Guerrero’s performance is unquestioned. 

• Guerrero has faced Rodon 21 times and never struck out. He has four extra-base hits, batting .588 and slugging .941.

• This series, he’s 6-for-9 with six RBI and a home run each game. He hasn’t struck out.

Two more things: Vladdy’s punished southpaws this season (.326/.428/.519) and he’s been a beast at Yankee Stadium.

• Career at NYY (48 games): .308 with a 1.002 OPS and 16 homers. He’s hit more bombs at Yankee Stadium than any park outside of Rogers Centre.

Vladdy’s ability to not only put the ball in play but to do it with authority makes this a smash play.

MLB postseason predictions

Rodon under 4.5 Ks (-108): This is no doubt a light line for Rodon, but here’s why I’m playing it:

• Toronto finished the regular season with the lowest K rate in baseball. 

• The club struck out just twice in its Game 1 victory and then five times in Game 2. 

• Rodon faced the Blue Jays twice this season, falling short of this number both times. In each outing, he went five innings and punched out four batters. 

• Rodon is an above-average strikeout arm with upside, but his leash is going to be shorter than usual in an elimination game. 

Despite allowing 13 runs on Sunday, Luke Weaver only threw a pitch after Will Warren absorbed 4.2 innings following Max Fried’s departure. 

The Yankees’ bullpen will be in good shape on Tuesday.

Whether there’s a lot of trust in the group is another question, but manager Aaron Boone will have fresh arms to turn to and can play the matchups if Rodon exhibits signs of trouble. 

Additionally, Rodon’s K rate dipped considerably in the second half. 

The southpaw struck out 28.2% of the batters he faced in the first half, but was a measley 21.9% post-all-star break. 

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/06/2025.