Chris Toman

Three prop bet recommendations are coming your way for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Today’s plays are on starting pitchers Gavin Williams and Tobias Myers, as well as Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith.

Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for August 27.

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Best bet: Williams over 15.5 outs (-120)

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Williams has a tough matchup and has struggled to clear this line in recent outings. 

He’ll see the Kansas City Royals, who are one back of the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead and rank fifth in wRC+ since the All-Star Game.

Williams has failed to complete five innings in three of four outings this month and is 3-7 against this line in 10 starts. 

But I’m choosing to focus on this: The right-hander has elite fastball velocity, pairing that with an exceptional cutter and curveball that has not been touched up.

He has a true starter’s arsenal. And he was a top 20 prospect, per MLB pipeline, ahead of his debut last June. 

Williams has a good K rate (24.4%) and has not been hurt badly by the long ball. His 3.74 FIP looks significantly better than his 5.13 ERA.

That said, the biggest reason I like this play is the state of the Guardians’ bullpen. 

These teams played in a doubleheader yesterday and Cleveland deployed 11 different pitchers over the two games.

Key stat: Guardians relievers, including an opener, threw 13 innings on Monday.

Quick picks

Smith over 0.5 RBI (+143): Smith has been in a deep slump but still has great numbers versus left-handers: .279/.392/.538.

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He had an .800 OPS against lefties last season and a mark of .908 in 2022. On top of that, Smith hits in a run-producing spot, making this an excellent matchup to cash in. 

Smith was hitting cleanup for a good chunk of the season but I’m still in on this if he bats fifth or sixth, which he’s done in five straight games.

That would mean he’s hitting behind high-OBP guys in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. And slugger Teoscar Hernandez, who has raked against southpaws.

The Baltimore Orioles are trotting out lefty Cole Irvin, who has a 4.82 ERA, career-high 1.41 WHIP and misses bats at a below-average rate.

Irvin has allowed 15 homers this season and 14 of them have been to righties, who are slashing .316/.364/.552 off him.

Myers over 15.5 outs (-109): The Milwaukee Brewers’ rookie right-hander is 9-4 against this line since the start of June.

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Over that stretch, his numbers look like this:

• 2.00 ERA
• 3.36 FIP
• 1.03 WHIP
• 5.6 BB%

Among 104 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings since then, only a dominant Blake Snell has a lower ERA.

Myers doesn’t miss a ton of bats but he’s not giving up bombs, either, and he’s done a great job at limiting free passes.

He’d probably go deeper more often if he wasn’t a rookie. The Brewers have only allowed Myers to hit the 95-pitch mark in four of his 19 starts.

But I like him to log more than five innings against a San Francisco Giants club that is 21st in MLB in wRC+ versus righties and 10 games below .500 on the road.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 08/27/2024.

For Friday’s MLB slate, I have three player prop recommendations.

The pregame narrative: My first play is a fade on Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Martinez. Later, I’m backing Freddie Freeman and Jose Soriano.

Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 16.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Martinez under 17.5 outs (-121)

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This feels like a big line for the Reds right-hander.

Martinez is coming off a tremendous outing: seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball with seven strikeouts and no walks versus the Milwaukee Brewers.

That was the second time in seven starts he’s cleared this line. He has pitched well, but the bulk of his work has come as a reliever and he just rejoined the Reds’ rotation this month after getting torched as a starter earlier this season.

There’s a lot to like about him this season (and even last), such as his ability to limit hard contact and get batters to chase. And this year, he’s not walking anyone or giving up homers. But that success has come in a relief role.

Martinez has not fared well as a starter and tonight he’ll pitch in his unforgiving stadium — the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park — against a top-10 offence since the All-Star Game.

The Kansas City Royals’ offence has been 15% better than league average (per wRC+) in 24 games post-ASG, and the club ranks fifth in batting average during that stretch.

Key stat: Martinez has a 4.41 ERA at home this year and opponents are hitting .301 off him (compared to 1.71 and .163 on the road).

Quick picks

Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+130): Full disclosure: I’ve recommended this play twice this week and it didn’t cash either time. But I’m just as bullish on it today.

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The premise for this play earlier in the week was this: The Los Angeles Dodgers were facing a subpar righty and Freeman was slotted No. 3 in the lineup behind Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.

Well, we get that scenario again today. Los Angeles will see St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who generally gives up plenty of hits and doesn’t miss many bats.

Ohtani obliterates right-handed pitching (.303/.404/.681) and Betts has a .405 on-base percentage.

Those two get on often, creating a very real scenario where Freeman comes to the plate with both runners on base, guaranteeing someone in scoring position.

Freeman is hitting .314/.417/.527 versus righties. He has eight hits in 18 career plate appearances against Mikolas, homering three times and striking out just twice.

Soriano over 15.5 outs (-129): The Los Angeles Angels righty has gone at least six innings and allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts.

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His one blemish over that stretch came in a plus matchup against the Oakland A’s, where he allowed six runs and was yanked after 2.2 innings.

Soriano has been spectacular at times and more than serviceable for the bulk of the season. He has a 3.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and has done an exceptional job at keeping the ball in the yard.

The K/BB numbers could be better, but he generally gives the Angels innings. Since the start of May, in a span of 15 starts, he’s 11-4 against this line.

Atlanta has a respectable 106 wRC+ post-ASG but it’s a far cry from the MLB-best 124 it put up in 2023. That’s no surprise without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.

Picks made at 1:41 p.m. ET on 08/16/2024.

It’s a light Thursday MLB slate and I’m focusing my attention on the later games.

The pregame narrative: Gunnar Henderson has excellent value in a matchup versus the Boston Red Sox, and I’m tailing Cody Bradford in a difficult assignment versus the Minnesota Twins.

Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for August 15.

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Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 bases (+135)

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Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is flirting with an elite 30% K rate for the second consecutive season but he’s still prone to blow-ups due to his struggles with the long ball.

Pivetta has allowed multiple homers in three straight outings and has the second-highest HR/9 rate among pitchers who have thrown 90-plus innings.

He faces MLB’s best home run-hitting team tonight in the Baltimore Orioles, who are second in wRC+ and fifth in batting average. This team can hit and is led by its all-star shortstop.

Henderson has 30 homers and a .925 OPS and provides most of his power against righties.

He’s hit 23 of his homers versus RHPs, accompanying a .575 slugging mark.

The 23-year-old has five multi-hit contests in 12 games this month. His strong average/power combination makes this play especially valuable.

Key stat: Henderson has topped this line at the eighth-most frequent rate in MLB, per Team Rankings.

Quick pick

Bradford over 4.5 Ks (-105): The Texas Rangers left-hander was exceptional in his last outing. He held the New York Yankees to one run and struck out seven over five innings.

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It was Bradford’s third start since April and his 92 pitches were easily the most he’s thrown since then. That’s an encouraging sign ahead of tonight.

The 26-year-old began the season with three great starts before a rib/back injury sidelined him for over three months.

With the caveat that he has a limited body of work this season, Bradford’s results have been sparkling: a 26.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 3.24 FIP.

Those strikeout/walk rates are superb. For context: Only six qualified starters have a better K-BB% than Bradford’s 22.7% mark.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 08/15/2024.

Wednesday features all-day baseball action, leading to four MLB prop recommendations.

The pregame narrative: I have picks on hitters Brendan Rodgers, Freddie Freeman and Bryan Reynolds, as well as starter Kyle Gibson.

Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for August 14.

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Best bet: Rodgers over 1.5 total bases (+105)

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Arizona Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery has been clobbered at home and by right-handers this season.

Rodgers is raking against southpaws and is on a heater. At plus money, I’m happy to lean into these trends.

It’s hard to call Montgomery the worst deal of the offseason when he only signed for one year, but he has been a colossal disappointment.

One of the anchors of the Texas Rangers’ World Series title, Montgomery has a 6.37 ERA (8.14 at home) and the lowest K/9 rate of his career.

Righties have obliterated him to the tune of a .326/.382/.530 slash line. He has surrendered all 10 of his homers to them.

Rodgers’ modest stats benefit, like most teammates, from playing his home games at Coors Field. But he’s put up a .319/.379/.500 line (134 wRC+) versus lefties.

And he enters on a tear. The Colorado Rockies second baseman is hitting .345/.396/.540 since the All-Star Game, aided by a 211 wRC+ in August.

Key stat: Rodgers’ .429 average this month trails only Aaron Judge.

Quick picks

Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+145): I recommended this play yesterday, unsuccessfully, but am going back to it.

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The same logic applies: Freeman, who demolishes righties, sees a subpar arm (the Milwaukee Brewers’ Frankie Montas, 5.10 ERA) and hits behind two of the game’s best in Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.

Betts has multi-hit games in both contests since returning from a broken hand. Ohtani has a 1.104 OPS versus right-handers, and a .407 average and five homers in 27 career at-bats versus Montas.

Freeman, meanwhile, is hitting .311/.417/.530 against RHPs, with an OPS nearly .200 points greater than his mark against southpaws.

Gibson over 4.5 Ks (-141): The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams all season.

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And while the St. Louis Cardinals’ Gibson isn’t a huge swing-and-miss arm, he has been hitting this modest total consistently and generally eats innings.

Gibson is pitching in an unfriendly environment at Great American Ball Park but gets a Reds team with the fourth-highest K rate versus righties.

The Cardinals starter is 7-3 vs. a 4.5 line over his last 10 starts. He went under this number in three of his first four outings of the year but has cleared it in 12 of his last 18.

Reynolds over 1.5 total bases (+125): I love this value. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder sees former teammate and San Diego Padres starter Martin Perez today.

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Perez is a soft-tossing lefty who doesn’t punch out many batters. He’s had below-average K numbers his entire career, leading to plenty of balls in play and often sky-high ERAs.

This season, he’s sporting a 4.78 ERA and 4.92 FIP. Righties are doing a lot of the damage: .293/.361/.503 line with 13 homers (Perez has given up three to LHBs).

Reynolds hit .330 in June, then .325 in July and is at .319 in August. He has an .831 OPS in 11 games this month, clearing this line six times.

Picks made at 11:43 a.m. ET on 08/14/2024.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers game is heavily featured in today’s prop recommendations.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on sluggers Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and am fading Brewers starter Colin Rea. Later, I’m also fading Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.

Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 13.

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Best bet: Betts over 1.5 bases (+110)

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The bet on Betts is a simple one for me: Enjoy the former MVP at plus money while you can.

Betts returned last night after missing two months and produced two hits, including a bomb.

Despite slumping in June and into July, he was putting up all-star numbers before he went down with a broken hand, with an average north of .300 and a .900-plus OPS.

Betts is an elite hitter who should get a couple of cracks at an average (at best) starter in Rea.

Key stat: Betts’ 157 wRC+ is 11th among players with 300-plus plate appearances.

Quick picks

Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+150): The Dodgers first baseman is once again hitting behind Betts and MVP favourite Shohei Ohtani, creating tremendous value on his RBI props.

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It’s especially attractive tonight based on his and Ohtani’s production versus right-handers, and Betts’ ability to get on base at a high clip.

Betts has a .406 OBP on the season and Ohtani has a mark of .411 versus righties.

Freeman is slashing a blistering .309/.417/.532 against RHPs with 12 of his 17 homers, and he has routinely pounded them throughout his career.

Against Rea, a soft-tossing righty who doesn’t miss many bats, I like the top three of this order to capitalize tonight.

Rea under 16.5 outs (-117): There may have been a little blip with Betts and Freeman both out where the Dodgers offence didn’t look spectacular. But it’s back to being scary.

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Los Angeles has the best top three in the game and the trio is followed by power hitter Teoscar Hernandez, who may finish his age-31 season with the best year of his career.

This group presents a nightmare for opposing starters, particularly righties who don’t get the platoon advantage versus Ohtani and Freeman.

Rea’s 3.38 ERA is a career-best mark but his xERA, per Baseball Savant, is significantly worse (4.75).

The right-hander has made 22 appearances (three as the bulk guy following an opener) and has a 50% success rate against this line.

Rodriguez under 5.5 Ks (-104): This is a plus matchup versus the Colorado Rockies, who have MLB’s second-highest K rate.

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But Rodriguez is making just his second start of the season and had a subpar fastball with no swing-and-miss ability in his season debut.

The caveat: It was against the Cleveland Guardians, a difficult team to retire on strikes. But Rodriguez’s outing was still uninspiring:

• 1 strikeout
• 2 walks
• 2 homers
• 3 swinging strikes over 5.2 innings.

Getting to six Ks is a large leap and this feels like good value after he threw just 65 pitches versus Cleveland.

Picks made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 08/13/2024.

Expect more offence tonight between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants after Monday’s series opener was one of the best pitching duels of the season.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta won 1-0 in extra innings in a game that saw starters Chris Sale and Blake Snell combine for 23 strikeouts. On Tuesday, I expect a couple of bats to be the stars: Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley.

Check out my Braves vs. Giants prop picks for August 13.

Braves vs. Giants prop picks

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Best Bet: Ozuna over 1.5 bases (+104)

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Venue plays a part in pricing. And San Francisco’s Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the game.

That’s why Ozuna, one of the top bats in baseball this season, can be had at plus money when he’s routinely around -115/-120 on this prop at other venues.

Well, that’s enough for me to see value coming back his way.

Ozuna has been a monster. He’s hitting over .300 and slugging .591. He’s one home run behind MVP favourite Shohei Ohtani for the National League lead.

The Giants are deploying Kyle Harrison, a lefty who has surrendered 11 of his 14 homers to right-handed hitters.

Against southpaws, Ozuna is hitting .343/.432/.569. He’s one of eight players with an OPS greater than 1.000 versus left-handers.

Harrison has been more than serviceable in his first full season but he does nothing spectacular. He’s allowed 11 hits over his last two outings and didn’t get out of the fifth in either of them.

The 23-year-old is bottom 10 among starters (minimum 100 innings pitched) in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Ozuna, meanwhile, is ninth among batters in hard-hit rate.

Key stat: Ozuna has cleared 1.5 total bases in 50% of his games (tied for seventh in MLB), per Team Rankings.

Quick pick

Riley over 1.5 total bases (+108): Atlanta’s third baseman is back to being a problem for opposing pitchers.

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Riley started the season painfully slow, hitting .228/.295/.353 with three homers through the end of May (42 games).

Since, over 62 games, he’s done this: .285/349/.553 with 15 bombs.

He slugged greater than .520 in both June and July and is at .644 in August.

Riley is a premium bat who had a .941 OPS versus lefties last season and 1.084 the year before. He has cleared this line in six of 11 games this month.

Picks made at 2:39 p.m. ET 08/13/2024.

Today’s recommendations feature the over on three hitter props.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Rafael Devers, Marcus Semien and Manny Machado. All have favourable matchups and I expect them to deliver.

Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 12.

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Best bet: Devers over 1.5 total bases (-103)

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Tonight’s Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers game has slugfest potential.

I don’t trust either starting pitcher to be effective at Fenway Park, the most hitter-friendly stadium in the American League (according to Baseball Savant). 

The 9.5 total is the highest of the day in a matchup featuring Tyler Mahle (making his second appearance since last April) and Brayan Bello, who’s fresh off the paternity list. 

Mahle was serviceable in his season debut last week against a strong Houston Astros team but struggled to miss bats and his max fastball velocity was down three mph from its peak a few seasons ago.

Bello, meanwhile, has one of the highest hard-hit rates among starters and has been demolished at home. 

This is a good spot to back some hitters, and I’ll start with Devers. The 27-year-old star has raked at Fenway all year and punished right-handed pitching. 

He enters with a .327/.413/.686 line versus righties. That 1.095 OPS trails only MVP favourites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. 

At home, Devers’ numbers are nearly as strong: .314/.395/.623.

Key stat: The Red Sox third baseman has cleared this line in 11 of his last 15 games.

Quick picks

Semien over 0.5 RBI (+160): Bello, Semien’s spot in the order, and the teammates hitting in front of him are all reasons why I like this play.

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The Rangers second baseman has hit No. 3 for 12 straight games after batting leadoff the entire season. That puts him behind left-handed hitters Josh Smith and Corey Seager.

Bello has surrendered a .277/.352/.509 slash line to lefty hitters and has a 5.71 ERA at home (10 starts).

Smith has a team-best .363 on-base percentage and Seager is getting on at a .389 clip versus righties.

Those are strong tablesetters for Semien, who has slumped in August following his best month of the season (.287 BA, .853 OPS in July).

Machado over 1.5 total bases (+108): I don’t think this will stay plus money through the afternoon.

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The San Diego Padres have a juicy matchup versus soft-tossing lefty Marco Gonzales and the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Gonzales has allowed four-plus runs in back-to-back starts and six-plus hits in each of his last five outings. There’s little upside here outside of potentially eating some innings (though he has failed to log five frames in three straight). 

Full disclosure: I took Gonzales under 17.5 outs (-125) this morning. His outs market is unavailable at NorthStar at the time of this writing but this would probably be my top play (I would take under 16.5 as well). 

Now to Machado. He has an .847 OPS since the All-Star Game and has slugged better than .500 in three consecutive months. 

The sample is small, but over 11 career at-bats versus Gonzales, Machado has six hits (.545 BA, 1.273 OPS) and no strikeouts.

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 08/12/2024.