Chris Toman

Sonny Gray has a plus matchup and is featured in today’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Gray has been racking up strikeouts and faces a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates team tonight. In addition to Gray, I have plays on Freddy Peralta and Bryce Miller.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 18.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Gray over 6.5. Ks (-113)

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This is a big line but Gray lives around this number nearly every start.

And the St. Louis Cardinals right-hander eats innings, working seven frames nine different times this season and throwing at least six in 11 of his last 16 outings.

It’s a strikeout prop I’m after tonight, but the innings hypothetically help us out, too.

Gray has a perfect matchup to deliver on both, facing a Pirates team that’s playing at a .418 win percentage in the second half.

Pittsburgh’s 87 wRC+ since the All-Star Game is the fourth-worst mark in the majors, and the team has the seventh-highest strikeout rate over that stretch.

Against righties this season, the Pirates have a top-10 K rate and Gray blew past this number when he faced them earlier in the season.

The veteran threw seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts against them in June. He has recorded at least six strikeouts in 13 of 15 starts since.

Gray is rocking a 30% K rate for the second time in his career.

Key stat: Gray is 7-3 against this line over his last 10 starts.

Quick picks

Peralta under 17.5 outs (-105): Last start, Peralta’s outs line was 15.5 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I recommended the over and he fell short.

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Now I’m in on the under against another difficult opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia ranks fourth in the majors in wRC+ this month and is third in ISO.

The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander can’t be trusted to go deep against this lineup. His K rate is below 20% in his last eight starts, and he has a 5.13 FIP over that span.

Peralta has cleared this line five times in 13 outings since the beginning of June and has gone under 17.5 outs in each of his last three starts.

Miller over 16.5 outs (-105): The Seattle Mariners righty is 8-3 versus this line over his last 11 starts.

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Two of the games he fell short were against the powerful Phillies and the even more powerful Los Angeles Dodgers. And two of the three games were on the road — away from his ultra-pitcher-friendly ballpark.

The New York Yankees certainly represent a challenge tonight, as the AL East leaders rank first in MLB in wRC+. But Miller will get the ball at T-Mobile Park, where he sports a 1.99 ERA over 15 starts.

He’s holding opponents to a measly .184 batting average and 0.86 WHIP at home. His K rate is an elite 30% at home compared to a well-below-average mark of 17.6% on the road.

Seattle got 4.2 innings out of Bryan Woo last night and isn’t off again until Sept. 26.

This is as good a spot as Miller will find against the Yankees.

Picks made at 2:58 p.m. ET on 09/18/2024.

Three starting pitchers are featured in today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: A play on Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Landon Knack is my favourite pick, while Freddy Peralta and Bailey Ober make up the remaining recommendations.

Check out these MLB prop bets for September 13.

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Best bet: Knack over 4.5 Ks (-114)

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I have a hard time seeing this light line staying at this price throughout the day. 

Knack has a 28.1% K rate at Triple-A Oklahoma City this season and a 24.0 K% across 11 MLB appearances (nine starts).

His strikeout numbers weren’t impressive at Triple-A last season, but he fanned more than 27% of the batters he faced in Double-A last year and 2022.

While those aren’t elite numbers, they are well above average and provide a good outlook ahead of tonight’s start versus the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta hitters get punched out often, ranking top 10 in K rate on the season and during the second half, while fanning at the sixth-highest clip against right-handers.

Knack struck out eight batters last week against the Cleveland Guardians, a club with significantly less swing and miss than the Braves.

The 27-year-old recorded five-plus Ks in five of his eight MLB starts before that.

Key stat: Across MLB and Triple-A, Knack has topped this line in each of his last seven starts.

Quick picks

Peralta over 15.5 outs (-106): This line required a double-take despite Peralta’s pedestrian stretch.

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The Milwaukee Brewers’ ace, known for his high strikeout upside, has not been missing bats.

He has a measly 18.9% K rate since the start of August, a span of seven starts in which he’s issued multiple walks each outing and has a 5.33 FIP.

Not only are the walks and lack of Ks concerning (though the latter could help keep his pitch count down), but he’ll be facing an elite offence.

The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in MLB in wRC+ (143) in the second half, and recently returned all-star Ketel Marte. 

That said, this is not a play on his K prop. Peralta has topped this line in 18 of 29 starts, including seven of his last 10.

Ober over 5.5 Ks (-137): This is an excellent price to back Ober on a 5.5 line.

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The righty has a career-high K rate (26.5%) and gives the playoff-hopeful Minnesota Twins innings.

Ober has worked at least six frames in 13 of his last 14 starts, but you’re not going to find any 17.5 lines out there at a playable price. But the innings mean more opportunity to rack up Ks.

Over that 14-start stretch, Ober has cleared this 10 times. He faced two teams that are difficult to retire on strikes in his last outings, punching out seven Royals and eight Blue Jays.

The Cincinnati Reds are not like those clubs. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the majors in K rate and fourth against right-handers.

Perhaps I’d give pause if this game was being played in Cincinnati’s homer-happy park. But it’s in Minnesota where Ober has a 10.18 K/9 rate.

Picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 09/13/2024.

There are only eight baseball games today but that still leaves us plenty of MLB prop options.

The pregame narrative: My favourite bet is a play on Milwaukee Brewers starter Frankie Montas. I’m also backing Washington Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker, as well as Seattle Mariners outfielder Victor Robles.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 12.

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Best bet: Montas over 5.5 Ks (-117)

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I thought Colin Rea could take advantage of a light line and prime matchup last night but he was instead rocked for 10 runs on 11 hits and came away with one strikeout. 

But tonight, I like Montas to top his K line for many of the reasons I liked Rea. 

Getting out of Cincinnati appears to have done Montas some good. And perhaps more reps have helped him shake some rust after he missed all of last season outside of one September appearance due to shoulder surgery. 

Here’s a look at Montas’ numbers with the Reds vs. the Brewers:

• With CIN: 5.01 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.5 K/9
• With MIL: 3.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.7. K/9

Montas has a 25.6 K% over his seven starts with Milwaukee and has cleared this line in four of his last six outings. He recorded a season-high 10 punchouts in his last start.

The right-hander has also been eating innings, working at least six frames in four consecutive starts. And tonight he’ll be throwing in a great pitcher’s venue at Oracle Park in San Francisco.

Key stat: The Giants have the second-highest K rate in MLB in the second half.

Quick picks

Parker over 16.5 outs (-107): The Nationals left-hander has a plus matchup against the division-rival Miami Marlins tonight.

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Miami is second-last in MLB in wRC+ versus left-handers. And the club ranks bottom five in ISO, batting average and on-base percentage.

Parker threw well when he faced the Marlins in June, spinning six innings of one-run ball. He also faced them in April when he made his third career start. Although he logged only four innings, Parker limited Miami’s offence to a run.

The southpaw has enjoyed a solid first year in the bigs. His K rate is hovering around league average, his walk rate is better than league average and he has a 3.89 FIP (better than average and an improvement from his 4.43 ERA).

Against a bottom-of-the-barrel lineup, that package should allow him to work deep (which this line doesn’t even ask for). Parker has topped this number in 14 of 26 starts. 

Robles over 0.5 runs (+125): Robles has eight runs in as many games this month, and is hitting a blistering .400/.515/.560 in September.

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Seattle’s leadoff hitter has been strong in the second half, leading the Mariners with a .305 average and .369 OBP.

The big storyline for tonight’s game is the debut of top Texas Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker, who has been dominating in the minors (43 Ks over his last 26.2 innings, a span of six starts).

Rocker hasn’t gone more than five innings once, though, so he’ll likely be limited. Following him will be a Rangers bullpen that has been dreadful this season.

Picks made at 2:14 p.m. ET on 09/12/2024.

It’s a Wednesday featuring all-day baseball and I have multiple MLB prop picks for the late window.

The pregame narrative: I’m targeting two starters from the same matchup — Blake Snell and Colin Rea — and backing Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 11.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Snell over 17.5 outs (-113)

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This isn’t a price we’ve been able to get Snell at in his recent outings thanks to arguably the most dominant stretch of any starting pitcher this season.

From the middle of July to mid-August, the lefty posted a 1.14 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 39.6% strikeout rate over seven starts.

Snell threw a no-hitter in one of those games, had a one-hitter in another and a pair of two-hit games. He was as unhittable as it gets.

Now he enters tonight coming off a one-inning performance, but that doesn’t bother me, especially since the ultra-abbreviated start wasn’t injury-related.

The 2023 Cy Young winner needed 42 pitches to get out of the first inning and that early strain was enough for the San Francisco Giants to turn to their bullpen and not push Snell any further.

Frustrating, but entirely reasonable. On Wednesday, I expect a huge bounce back from the southpaw against a Milwaukee Brewers club that has been a below-average offence over the last month.

Key stat: Before his last start, Snell had cleared this line in eight of his previous nine outings.

Quick picks

Rea over 4.5 Ks (-118): Rea isn’t a huge strikeout arm but this line isn’t asking for a ton.

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And if there was ever a time to back him on a 4.5 line, tonight’s start is it.

The Giants have the highest K rate in the majors over the last 30 days. Everyone in their projected lineup tonight, via Rotowire, has a league-average K rate or higher.

Rea has notched five-plus strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts and has a 24.7% K rate in the second half.

Betts over 1.5 total bases (-108): The Dodgers No. 2 hitter is on fire and comes at a price that can be stomached.

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This opened as a plus-money play when I jumped on it, but -108 is more than reasonable if you weren’t able to get to it earlier.

Betts is hitting a blistering .406/.472/.844 in September with as many home runs as strikeouts (three).

He’ll start tonight facing Chicago Cubs lefty Jordan Wicks, who has four Ks in two starts since returning from a two-month-plus absence.

The Dodgers are facing a surprise sweep at home and I expect their offence to come out clicking tonight.

Betts is 9-6 vs. this line over his last 15 games.

Picks made at 2:44 p.m. ET on 09/11/2024.

We’re in for a light Monday of MLB action but there are still several prop picks I like.

The pregame narrative: Charlie Morton is the headliner of the slate, and I have additional plays on Freddie Freeman, Carlos Rodon and Elly De La Cruz.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 9.

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Best bet: Morton over 5.5 Ks (-113)

This line feels light. I particularly like it because Morton has been piling up Ks and the Cincinnati Reds are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the majors.

Let’s start with Morton, whose K rate has hit a nine-year low but is still comfortably above league average.

Morton has struck out 24.5% of the batters he’s faced, a number helped by his 28% K rate since August 1. The league average K rate for starting pitchers this season, per FanGraphs, is 21.9%.

Morton, since the start of August: 

• Aug. 1 vs. Marlins: 6 Ks
• Aug. 8 vs. Brewers: 3 Ks
• Aug. 13 @ Giants: 8 Ks
• Aug. 18 @ Angels: 7 Ks
• Aug. 24 vs. Nationals: 6 Ks
• Aug. 29 @ Phillies: 7 Ks
• Sept. 4 vs. Rockies: 8 Ks

He’s 6-1 against this line over that stretch heading into tonight’s start versus the Reds, who have the seventh-highest K rate in MLB.

Against righties, they strike out at the fourth-highest clip and ninth-highest over the last 30 days. Cincinnati has been a good team to target on K props all season.

Key stat: Morton has six-plus Ks in 15 of 26 starts.

Quick picks

Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+100): Getting Freeman at even money versus a righty, and one that has been clobbered all season? Sign me up.

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Freeman punishes right-handers and his Los Angeles Dodgers see Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs tonight.

Hendricks has a 6.60 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and he doesn’t strike out many batters. Left-handed hitters are batting .319 off him with a .921 OPS.

Freeman is hitting .305 with a .932 OPS against RHPs. No need to overthink this one.

Rodon under 6.5 Ks (+105): The New York Yankees left-hander was dominant in his last start: Six innings of one-hit, one-run ball with 11 strikeouts versus the Texas Rangers.

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But he was lit up in two of three starts before that. And that’s really a tale of how his season has gone. There’s been enough to like but he’s been blown up plenty.

The strikeouts have been there, especially of late (32.6 K% post-ASG). But Rodon has a 5.06 ERA and 4.20 FIP (the same number as his season-long ERA) since the start of June.

Tonight, he faces a dangerous Kansas City Royals offence that doesn’t strike out often. The game is also at Kauffman Stadium, which has been one of MLB’s best hitter’s parks.

Kansas City has the second-lowest K rate versus lefties and the second-lowest in MLB since the All-Star Game.

De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (+145): This number is juicy.

De La Cruz is slumping and is streaky, but he does his damage against righties (.283/.360/.535 with 17 of his 23 homers).

I endorsed Morton on his K prop, but he isn’t bulletproof.

The veteran righty’s xSLG% is at its highest mark since 2015 (as far back as Baseball Savant data goes) and his HR/FB rate is the highest since 2010.

De La Cruz has hit the over on 1.5 total bases in 44% of his starts, per Team Rankings, creating some value here at +145.

Picks made at 1:07 p.m. ET on 09/09/2024.

After a light Thursday, we’re back to a loaded MLB slate on Friday.

The pregame narrative: I like two Colorado Rockies on the prop market and I have additional plays on stars Zack Wheeler and Shohei Ohtani.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 6.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Brenton Doyle over 0.5 hits (-132)

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You’d be forgiven when looking at today’s Rockies prop lines if you came away thinking they’re facing Cy Young. 

The prices are astronomical, creating tremendous value in a matchup against Frankie Montas and the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Colorado is last in the National League (and only ahead of the White Sox) in wRC+ in the second half and Montas had a solid August, posting a 3.82 ERA in six starts with his new team.

But this is still Frankie Montas, who carries a 4.70 ERA and 1.39 WHIP into tonight’s start. His expected ERA is the same and he has lacklustre strikeout and walk numbers.

While Montas is certainly capable of a good start against the Rockies, he’s allowed three-plus runs in eight of his last nine outings.

I’m targeting multiple Rockies against him at these prices.

Brenton Doyle is priced at +215 to go over 1.5 total bases. While I think that’s worthy of a play, my official recommendation is Doyle to record a hit at -132.

Doyle has at least one hit in 18 of his last 20 games.

I also think it’s worth backing Charlie Blackmon, who should hit leadoff and will have the platoon advantage for as long as Montas is on the mound.

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Blackmon has been abysmal of late but he has some capable hitters behind him and an optimal spot in the lineup.

Left-handed batters have hit Montas well this year (.278/.370/.480) and Blackmon can be had at +175 to score.

Key stat: Doyle is batting .296 with a .955 OPS since July 1.

Quick picks

Wheeler over 18.5 outs (-118): I don’t typically take the over on this line and when I do it’s usually a plus-money play. But nothing is absolute and this is an excellent matchup for Wheeler.

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The Philadelphia Phillies ace faces the Miami Marlins, who have lost 16 of their last 25 games and have an 88 wRC+ versus righties (which Wheeler is, and an elite one).

Wheeler is nearly automatic for six innings a game, doing so in 10 of his last 12 starts. Six frames wouldn’t cash this for us, but it demonstrates the workhorse’s ability to go deep.

Over that 12-start stretch, Wheeler has cleared this line five times. He’s top 10 in the majors in innings pitched.

Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (+108): This is priced like this because Ohtani is facing a lefty and will not have the platoon advantage early on, which he routinely exploits.

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The NL MVP favourite has 1.100 OPS versus RHPs compared to a mark of .786 against LHPs. That’s a drastic difference and generally falls in line with his career splits.

But tonight’s lefty starter for the Cleveland Guardians is Matthew Boyd. He’s been solid in four starts but is not someone I’m shying away from.

Getting Ohtani at plus money versus a non-elite arm is a no-brainer, especially when he may very well see right-handed relievers later in the game.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 09/06/2024.

It’s a light Thursday with no games starting past 8:40 p.m. ET, but we’re still serving up MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I like a pair of San Diego Padres tonight (Martin Perez and Jackson Merrill) and have an earlier play on Colorado Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 5.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Perez over 15.5 outs (-124)

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This isn’t really an endorsement of Perez, who has failed to top this line in three consecutive starts.

But to his credit, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in five of six outings since joining the Padres, leading to a respectable 3.41 ERA with his new club (his 5.33 FIP does paint a clearer picture, though).

Perez doesn’t miss many bats, so he gets hit often, increasing his chances of surrendering damage. He’s allowed a home run in every start with the Padres and runs into a Detroit Tigers team that’s playing well.

That all screams fade. But San Diego’s bullpen had to work overtime last night, which should give Perez some added length.

Yu Darvish made his return from the restricted list and lasted 2.2 innings, forcing the Padres to use seven relievers yesterday in a game that went to extra innings.

While the team was off Tuesday, it did play 18 straight before that and begins a new series tomorrow.

It doesn’t hurt that San Diego’s offence gets an appealing matchup against righty Casey Mize, who has made one start in the past two months. He doesn’t miss bats and faces a team that doesn’t get punched out (lowest K rate in MLB).

The Padres should put the ball in play and building an early lead could work in Perez’s favour, helping him stay out a bit longer.

Key stat: Perez cleared this line in each of his first three starts with San Diego.

Quick picks

Merrill over 1.5 bases (+118): I love this price for the National League Rookie of the Year favourite.

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Merrill has been mashing and does nearly all his damage against right-handed pitching.

The 21-year-old is hitting .319 and slugging .556 versus RHPs (.907 OPS) with 17 of his 22 homers.

He’s been the Padres’ best hitter in the second half, posting a robust .329/.357/.645 slash line and ranking top 10 in MLB in wRC+ (173).

Merrill has topped this line in eight of his last 10 games.

Gomber over 15.5 outs (-103): The Rockies generally let Gomber work and things are set up fairly well for him tonight.

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The last time the Rockies got more than five innings from a starter was Gomber’s last turn through the rotation. That’s a lot of work on the bullpen.

Gomber is 8-3 vs. this line since the start of July and has cleared it in 17 of his 26 starts this season. That’s despite his 4.69 ERA, so bad starts have not necessarily translated to short outings.

The matchup against the Atlanta Braves (eighth in wRC+ versus LHPs) does him no favours, but Gomber is coming off his best month since May.

Picks made at 2:01 p.m. ET on 09/05/2024.

Three pitchers plus Max Muncy make up today’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I’m fading starters Marcus Stroman, Yu Darvish and George Kirby while backing Muncy on his total bases prop.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 4.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Stroman under 17.5 outs (-109)

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Yesterday was an 0-for-4 night on prop recommendations. Tonight’s bounce back starts with Stroman, who’s having the worst season of his career.

Stroman is coming off his longest start since May 31, working seven innings with five strikeouts and no walks in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals. 

And while he logged six innings two starts before that, this is not a number he typically gets to. Those were the only two outings in his last 10 starts where he cleared 17.5 outs.

Texas’ offence has been disappointing but Stroman doesn’t have overpowering stuff and has had control issues.

The free passes (career-high BB rate) and lack of swing-and-miss (career-low K rate) leave him susceptible to a big inning, increasing his chances of a shorter outing.

Key stat: Stroman has failed to complete six innings in 17 of 26 starts.

Quick picks

Darvish under 4.5 Ks (+106): The San Diego Padres right-hander has two things working against him: He hasn’t made an MLB start since May 29 and returns without going on a rehab assignment. 

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Darvish made 11 starts before leaving the team and going on the restricted list, falling under this number in five of those outings.

His strikeout rate has dropped in five consecutive seasons, reaching its lowest point this year (23.1 K%).

Without a rehab outing, there’s reason to suspect the 38-year-old will be rusty. And because he didn’t tune up in the minors before rejoining the Padres, he certainly won’t be working deep.

On top of all that, the Detroit Tigers are playing well. They’ve won 15 of their last 21 games and are 18-12 since August 1. Over the last two weeks, they’re 11th in wRC+.

Kirby under 6.5 Ks (-124): The Seattle Mariners righty isn’t a huge strikeout arm on a rate level but he typically works enough innings that he’s able to pile up Ks. 

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That hasn’t been the case lately. Kirby has completed six innings once over his last six starts after doing so in nine consecutive before that. And the strikeouts haven’t been there.

Over this six-start stretch, Kirby has topped 6.5 Ks once. He had a season-low two strikeouts in his last start and three Ks two starts ago.

While the Oakland A’s have MLB’s sixth-highest K rate, they’re 21st since the All-Star Game and have won at a .585 clip.

Muncy over 1.5 bases (+125): Muncy makes his money punishing righties and he’ll see a hittable one tonight.

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The Los Angeles Angels are starting Griffin Canning, who has a 5.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 1.56 HR/9 rate. He’s bottom five in all three categories among qualified starters.

Muncy is batting .250/.372/.528 over 43 plate appearances since returning from an oblique injury toward the end of August.

The L.A. Dodgers slugger has a .908 OPS versus righties this season and a mark of .572 against lefties. His splits were drastic last season, too (.881/.642).

Left-handers are batting .275 against Canning with an .831 OPS.

Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 09/04/2024.