Chris Toman

It’s another doubleheader of postseason baseball tonight.

The pregame narrative: Michael King is coming off a dominant playoff performance and I expect him to thrive in Game 3. I also have plays on Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo.

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 8.

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Best bet: King over 5.5 Ks (+102)

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King carved up the Atlanta Braves in the wild-card series, working seven innings and striking out 12.

The San Diego Padres right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season and his swing-and-miss ability is a big reason why.

King had 15 swinging strikes in that 12-punchout game, matching a season high. He faced the Los Angeles Dodgers four times this year, posting a 3.10 ERA and producing double-digit whiffs twice — including a whopping 17 in May.

He only cleared this number once, but one of those outings was a relief role during the Seoul Series in March.

King still managed a 10.2 K/9 rate versus Los Angeles, propped up by that May outing against a near-identical lineup he’ll see at home tonight.

The first-year Padre had a sensational 32.5 K% in 14 starts at Petco Park compared to a 23.5% mark on the road, propelling him to a top-10 strikeout rate in MLB.

Even in what could be a shorter outing in a high-stakes game with the series tied, King has provided more reasons than not to trust him against this number.

Key stat: King had six-plus strikeouts in 21 of his 30 starts.

Quick picks

Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+165) & Tatis over 1.5 bases (-117): I’m all aboard the fade Walker Buehler train tonight.

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Los Angeles’ Game 3 starter had a miserable season (5.54 FIP, career-low K rate) and cannot be trusted.

Buehler faced the Padres twice this year, recording three strikeouts and allowing 10 hits over 8.1 innings. His lowest whiff total of the campaign came against the Padres in his last start of the season.

As a team, the Padres had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. They are going to put the ball in play and should cash in against Buehler. That likely leads to a long night for Los Angeles’ bullpen, which San Diego tagged for eight hits and five runs in Game 2.

Merrill is hitting .429/.500/.857 in the playoffs and hits fifth behind some dangerous bats with good on-base skills. The rookie batted .311 with an .891 OPS versus righties in the regular season.

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Tatis has been even better in the postseason, hitting an insane .643/.722/1.429 with three homers. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in all four of his games.

Over 29 career plate appearances against Buehler, Tatis has taken him deep four times and is slugging .724.

Phillies vs. Mets prop pick

Nimmo over 0.5 runs (+143): The left fielder has been terrific in October, scoring in four of five games while hitting .333 with a .391 OBP.

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Nimmo’s ability to get on base is appealing, though I do think he has value on his RBI and total bases props, too.

The left fielder also has pop, going deep once this postseason and 23 times during the regular season.

Nimmo has seen Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola plenty, getting on base 25 times in 64 career plate appearances (.391 OBP).

New York is averaging a robust 5.4 runs per game in the playoffs.

Picks made at 11:48 a.m. ET on 10/08/2024.

The ALDS resumes Monday after fireworks in both NLDS games last night.

The pregame narrative: A play on Cleveland Guardians starter Matthew Boyd is my top prop pick of the day. I also have recommendations on Kansas City Royals teammates Salvador Perez and Boby Witt Jr.

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 7.

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Best bet: Boyd over 4.5 Ks (-152)

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Boyd should not be expected to work deep based on his regular season workload and how starting pitchers are handled in the postseason.

Cleveland pulled No. 1 starter Tanner Bibee with two outs and a man on in the fifth inning of Game 1, up 5-0. There’s no reason to expect the club will deploy its bullpen any differently today.

The Guardians bullpen had an MLB-best 2.57 ERA and 3.30 FIP in the regular season, ranking third in K%.

That said, this is a play on Boyd’s strikeout line, not his outs prop, and he can pile up punchouts in short outings. He’s been doing it all year.

Boyd made eight starts this season and hit the 90-pitch mark twice. He failed to go five innings in each of his last three outings but struck out five-plus batters in all of them.

The Detroit Tigers are a juicy matchup for any starting pitcher, let alone one with a 27.7% K rate who held opponents to a .212 batting average.

Detroit had the seventh-highest K rate versus lefties this season and was third in all situations in the second half. The swing-and-miss issues have continued in the playoffs, too:

G1 vs. Astros: 10 Ks
G2 vs. Astros: 13 Ks
G1 vs. Guardians: 13 Ks

The Tigers have struck out in 31.9% of their postseason plate appearances. 

Key stat: Boyd was 6-2 versus this line during the regular season.

Quick picks

Perez over 0.5 RBI (+145): Kansas City’s all-star catcher has hit cleanup in all four Royals postseason games, which is where he was primarily slotted during the regular season. 

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In a key run-producing spot, Perez delivered 100-plus RBI for the second time in his career.

He has yet to drive in a run in the playoffs but has a hit in three straight games and was strong versus left-handers this season.

Perez hit .297 and slugged .510 versus southpaws, producing an OPS nearly 100 points greater than his mark against righties.

The veteran has also enjoyed success against the lefty the New York Yankees are deploying tonight, Carlos Rodon.

In 27 career plate appearances against Rodon, Perez is hitting .462/.481/.846 with three home runs.

Witt over 0.5 runs (+100): Witt is coming off an 0-for-5 game and is sitting on a .214 on-base percentage across his three postseason games.

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But he’s only struck out twice and reached base in 22 of 24 September games.

Witt is too good of a hitter (MLB-best .332 average, fourth in OPS) to hold down for an entire series and Rodon is much tougher against left-handed hitters.

Righties posted an OPS 130-plus points better against the southpaw and he surrendered 28 of his 31 homers to RHBs. 

Witt is a good bet to get on base and put himself in a position to score.

He scored the third most runs (125) in the regular season and also has the pop (career-high 32 bombs) to cash this on his own.

Picks made at 11:59 a.m. ET on 10/07/2024.

The MLB playoffs resume Saturday with all four LDS matchups getting underway.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani makes his postseason debut but it’s two San Diego Padres players who I’m targeting on the prop market. I also have a play on New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 5.

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Best bet: Cease over 4.5 Ks (-143)

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On the surface, I don’t love the price. But I do like it on this especially light number.

The Padres right-hander never sees a line this low. This is the postseason, of course, against the best offence in MLB (No. 1 in wRC+) and Cease struggles with control.

With a fully rested bullpen, it’s unlikely he works too deep against this powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. But Cease can punch out a side and clear this number in a short outing.

Cease is an elite strikeout artist. He finished fifth in total punchouts and tied for third in strikeout rate (29.4 K%).

In his debut season with the Padres, he topped 200-plus strikeouts for the fourth consecutive year.

As rested as the Padres’ bullpen will be, it won’t be as rested as Cease, who hasn’t pitched since Sept. 25. He has thrown well throughout his career with longer layoffs.

On six-plus days of rest: 

• 3.55 ERA
• .215 BA
• 1.19 WHIP
• 11.2 K/9 rate

Those are all better numbers than what he’s produced on normal rest and five days off between starts.

He was a mixed bag in two starts versus the Dodgers this season but averaged five Ks per outing.

Key stat: Cease recorded five-plus strikeouts in 28 of his 33 starts.

Quick picks

Arraez over 0.5 runs (+135): This is big value for a leadoff hitter who doesn’t strike out and hits in front of several potent bats.

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Arraez scored in both games of the wild-card series and 11 of 21 starts in September when he batted .340 and got on base at a .367 clip.

The Dodgers are starting righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and have a bullpen that will primarily feature right-handers.

Arraez fares significantly better versus righties. The left-handed hitter batted .333 with a .362 OBP against RHPs compared to marks of .271 and .310 versus southpaws.

The four players likely to hit directly behind Arraez (Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill) all posted an OPS greater than .815 since the start of September.

Cole over 5.5 Ks (-114): The Kansas City Royals are notoriously hard to retire on strikes and both Baltimore Orioles starters went under this number in the wild-card series.

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As for Cole, he posted his lowest K rate since 2017 when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates. That all points to fading him, but this is a low enough bar that I’m willing to bite.

Cole was 10-7 against this line in 17 starts, finishing with a 25.4 K% that was comfortably above the league-average strikeout rate for starters.

He missed two-plus months to start the season and struggled through July before coming on strong.

June/July (7 starts): 5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .277 BA, 2.31 HR/9, 24.5 K%
Aug/Sept: (10 starts): 2.25 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .182 BA, 0.30 HR/9, 26.0 K%

The big-game pitcher worked six-plus innings in six of his final eight outings. He has topped this number in 12 of 14 playoff starts since 2018.

Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 10/04/2024.

I’m going back to a San Diego Padres starter for today’s best playoff prop pick.

The pregame narrative: Michael King successfully blew past the over on his strikeout line Tuesday and I’m expecting Joe Musgrove to do the same. I’m also riding Francisco Lindor for the second straight day and have a play on Gunnar Henderson.

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 2.

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Best bet: Musgrove over 5.5 Ks (-112)

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We just watched King absolutely carve up the Braves with 12 strikeouts. Padres pitchers collectively fanned 15 batters. 

Musgrove had a disappointing start to the year following recovery from a shoulder injury that cut short his 2023 season, but he’s been every bit as good as King in the second half:

That’s over a nine-game sample for Musgrove after missing two months and he was cooking before that, too, posting a 2.51 ERA in three May outings.

Atlanta has multiple regulars with above-average K rates and the team was top 10 in the majors in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.

The Padres have a rested bullpen after getting seven frames from King and don’t need to push Musgrove, but they don’t need to be ultra-conservative with him either up 1-0 in this series.

Key stat: Musgrove has cleared this line in seven of his last eight starts.

Quick picks

Lindor over 0.5 runs (+105): Frankie Montas turned his season around with the Milwaukee Brewers but I don’t trust him in an elimination game against a strong lineup. 

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The Mets are dangerous, evident to anyone watching baseball the last two days. They scored eight runs in a come-from-behind win over Atlanta on Monday to clinch a playoff spot and then put up another eight yesterday to steal Game 1 on the road.

Montas is not a good bet to stay in the game long, meaning the Brewers will deploy their elite bullpen (NL-best 3.11 ERA).

New York tagged Aaron Ashby, who was fantastic out of the bullpen since August, and higher-leverage reliever Joel Payamps yesterday.

All that to say, I don’t expect Milwaukee’s pitching to be at its best today.

I like this pick because Montas has struggled versus lefties (.866 OPS, 16 of his 24 homers allowed). Also, Lindor has pop and got on base at a good clip (.344) this season.

He hits well from both sides and scored a team-leading 107 runs. Lindor scored in 56.2% of his games, according to Team Rankings, good for the fourth-best mark in MLB.

This play allows us to tap into some of the powerful bats that follow the Mets’ leadoff man. 

Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+125): Henderson is hitless in his last 12 at-bats but this is solid value.

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He only has two strikeouts over that stretch and will see a non-elite swing-and-miss arm in Kansas City Royals RHP Seth Lugo to start Game 2.

The shortstop hit .349/.418/.593 over 21 September games before this mini-cold stretch.

Henderson cleared this in just shy of 50% of his games (fifth in MLB) and obliterates right-handed pitching. The 23-year-old was eighth in MLB in wRC+ versus RHPs, clubbing 29 of his 37 homers.

He raked at home (.909 OPS) and is the most trustworthy bat in the Baltimore Orioles lineup.

Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 10/02/2024.

Playoff baseball is here! A quadruple-header of wild-card games kicks off the MLB postseason on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: I like red-hot New York Mets star Francisco Lindor to continue mashing and also have plays on starters Michael King and Cole Ragans.

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 1.

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Best bet: King over 5.5 Ks (-113)

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This line feels light, even for a playoff game.

The San Diego Padres right-hander gets an Atlanta Braves team that finished ninth in the majors in strikeout rate and 10th versus righties. 

Multiple bats in their lineup (Matt Olson, Jorge Soler, Ramon Laureano and Travis d’Arnaud) had above-average K rates versus right-handed pitching.

King posted a 27.7 K% in the regular season, a top-10 mark among starting pitchers.

He had a 29.5% rate in a split role last season and fanned 33.2% of the batters he faced in 2022 when he was exclusively a reliever. The point: King is an elite strikeout arm (No. 4 in K% since 2022, minimum 300 innings).

He was 9-2 versus this line in the second half and went at least six innings in more than half of those starts.

Even if King can’t get to that six-inning mark, he has the swing-and-miss ability to blow past this line.

Key stat: King recorded six-plus Ks in 21 of 30 starts.

Quick picks

Lindor over 1.5 bases (+135)

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New York’s dynamic shortstop, who powered the Mets to a playoff spot with a dramatic ninth-inning homer yesterday, posted a .933 OPS in the second half. 

He’s hitting as well as ever before (his 136 wRC+ was a career-high mark) and has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 starts. 

Lindor managed two-plus bases in 47.4% of his games this season, according to Team Rankings, which was the 12th-best mark in MLB.

The 30-year-old has hit 22 of his 33 homers versus right-handers, and he’ll start by seeing what hasn’t been the best version of Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta (his 4.19 FIP is his highest mark since 2019).

Milwaukee’s bullpen is great (NL-best 2.72 ERA, sixth in K%). But this number screams value for the switch-hitter who bats well from both sides of the plate.

Ragans over 16.5 outs (-117): With clear action coming in on the over, this number has gone from -110 to -117 to -125 (still playable for me) by 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday morning.

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The Orioles are a deep and powerful lineup but Ragans has shut down plenty of good teams this season. He finished with a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts.

Ragans ranked top five among starters in FIP and WAR, sixth in K% and eighth in innings pitched.

Leashes are rightfully going to be shorter this time of year, but Ragans is Kansas City’s ace and this isn’t a must-win game even though it probably feels like it.

These teams play again tomorrow and Thursday, if necessary. That means this is all the Royals are getting from Ragans this series.

The left-hander has to deliver, but he’s probably not getting yanked at the first sign of trouble. And he has delivered on this line more often than not, topping 16.5 outs in 24 of 32 starts. 

Picks made at 9:41 a.m. ET on 10/01/2024.

Minnesota Twins righty Pablo Lopez is featured in today’s top prop picks as we kick off the final weekend of the MLB season.

The pregame narrative: Lopez’s Twins have collapsed but he still has an opportunity to end his year strong. So does Wyatt Langford, who has been hot and has an excellent matchup Friday night.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 27.

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Best bet: Lopez over 5.5 Ks (-127)

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Lopez’s outs line is 18.5 tonight, which is what you’d expect but I’m staying away from picking a side. I think he has a good chance to get to six innings, though, and make good on this prop.

The right-hander is 13-5 versus this line when he completes at least six frames. 

His strikeout rate is down this season but it’s still a healthy 25.5%, ranking as a top-20 mark among pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 150 innings. 

Lopez was walloped in his last start but came into it in good form, allowing five earned runs over the previous six starts while reaching the nine-strikeout mark three different times.

The Twins’ bullpen situation can also work to Lopez’s advantage. It’s a mess. 

Minnesota used eight relievers over 8.2 innings of work in last night’s 13-inning loss. The game before that, it got one inning out of starter Simeon Woods-Richardson (using six relievers) and the club is not far removed from a doubleheader on Sunday.

Lopez likely has a long leash despite the Twins still technically alive in the wild-card race. 

The matchup is difficult, but after the Baltimore Orioles’ chances of winning the AL East officially ended last night, they’ve all but locked up the first wild-card spot and home field for the best-of-three series. 

As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them finally rest some players. 

Key stat: Lopez has cleared this line in 18 of 31 starts.

Quick pick

Langford over 1.5 total bases (+128): The Texas Rangers rookie has the platoon advantage in a juicy matchup versus the Los Angeles Angels.

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Texas will see lefty Reid Detmers, who has had a horrible season and been rocked in back-to-back outings.

Detmers has flashed promise a couple of times (multiple 10-strikeout games) but he has career-high walk and home runs rates, leading to a 6.67 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

Going back to April, Detmers has allowed five-plus runs in eight of his last 11 outings.

As for Langford, he’s slugging .511 versus left-handers and is ending his season on a high note.

The 22-year-old is hitting .310/.400/.598 in September with six homers. He has a 1.041 OPS over the last 15 days.

Langford has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games.

Picks made at 3:31 p.m. ET on 09/27/2024.

Most of Thursday’s MLB action is starting early but I have two prop picks for tonight’s games.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota Twins righty David Festa is featured in the top play, and I’m targeting Manny Machado in the NL West showdown between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 26.

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Best bet: Festa over 5.5 Ks (+106)

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There’s risk with this play but the upside and situation outweigh that for me. 

The risk is this: Festa has made 12 starts in his rookie season and has gone more than five innings once. His Minnesota Twins are fighting for their playoff lives, which could certainly work against him. But I actually think it works in his favour. 

While the Twins would ideally keep a super short leash on their starters for every remaining game, it’s not that simple considering how overworked a bullpen can quickly become. 

The Twins only got one inning from starter Simeon Woods-Richardson last night, using six relievers in their 8-3 win. 

On Tuesday, Bailey Ober delivered five frames and four relievers were deployed. They were off Monday but had a doubleheader on Sunday. There are no more off days as they close out the season trying to secure a wild-card spot. 

With a pivotal series against the Baltimore Orioles looming this weekend, the Twins need to keep some fresh arms in their bullpen. And Festa has a great matchup to deliver on that.

The Miami Marlins are 28th in MLB in wRC+ and have been retired on strikes at the ninth-highest clip over the last 30 days. They’ve lost 11 of their last 15 games.

Minnesota, a -265 favourite, should win this game, affording it the luxury to let Festa run his pitch count up after he threw 100-plus pitches for the first time in his career last start.

Festa had huge strikeout numbers in the minors and his swing-and-miss ability has translated to the majors. He has a 28.1% K rate that would be good for a top-10 mark among starters if he had enough innings to qualify.

Key stat: The righty has recorded six-plus strikeouts in eight of 13 appearances (one relief outing).

Quick pick

Machado over 0.5. RBI (+140): Getting the Padres’ red-hot cleanup hitter at this number feels like great value.

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Machado has 21 RBI this month, trailing only soon-to-be NL MVP Shohei Ohtani for the MLB lead.

The third baseman started the season rough but September is his fourth straight month slugging .500-plus, upping his OPS to .803.

Machado has high OBP guys hitting ahead of him, including offensive machine Fernando Tatis Jr. You have to like this matchup for the Padres, who see struggling Dodgers righty Walker Buehler.

Buehler has a 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, allowing four-plus runs in seven of his last 11 starts. His strikeouts have ticked up recently but are at a career-low rate, coupled with a career-high walk rate.

This is a terrible matchup for him, as the Padres rank second in wRC+ versus righties and have the lowest K rate in MLB.

Picks made at 2:11 p.m. ET on 09/26/2024.

It’s difficult to navigate the prop market during the last week of the MLB season, but I have three plays I like tonight.

The pregame narrative: Wednesday’s top pick features Texas Rangers left-hander Cody Bradford. I have additional plays on Juan Soto and Davis Martin.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 25.

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Best bet: Bradford over 5.5 Ks (-115)

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The second-year lefty has made nine starts since rejoining the Rangers’ rotation in August, allowing two runs or fewer in six of those outings and more than three just once.

That one blowup came against MLB’s No. 3 offence by wRC+ (Arizona Diamondbacks), ending a run of five straight starts of logging six or more innings.

Bradford then bounced back against the Toronto Blue Jays with his best start of the season (seven scoreless).

This is a strikeout prop but the innings are key here, as Bradford’s ability to work deeper into games gives him more opportunity to pile up Ks. And in what will be his last start of the season, there’s no reason to expect a short leash with the Rangers out of contention.

Part of that ability to work deep is elite control. Bradford’s 3.4 BB% since the start of August is the sixth-best mark among starting pitchers.

As for the strikeouts, Bradford has topped this line in 50% of his outings but heads into an excellent matchup against the Oakland A’s.

Bradford has faced the A’s twice this season, working six-plus innings and topping this line both times. He fanned seven A’s in April and punched out a season-high eight batters versus Oakland on Aug. 31.

Key stat: The A’s have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB (sixth this month).

Quick picks

Soto over 1.5 bases (+150): This is wild value for a player hitting .286/.417/.569 with 40 homers.

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The caveat with Soto, of course, is that he walks a ton, which is why his prices aren’t often similar to comparable sluggers. Soto’s 125 walks are second to teammate Aaron Judge for the MLB lead.

That said, this is too big a number to pass up.

Soto will have the platoon advantage tonight versus Baltimore Orioles starter Zach Eflin, who has struggled mightily in this head-to-head matchup.

The New York Yankees star is batting .500/.550/.794 with two homers and four doubles in 40 career plate appearances against Eflin.

Those are good enough numbers and a big enough sample for me to pay attention.

Martin under 5.5 Ks (-132): Martin’s ability to generate swinging strikes in recent starts is impressive but it has not led to Ks.

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Even when he had a whopping 18 swinging strikes versus the New York Mets at the end of August, he only finished with six Ks.

That was the only time in nine starts this season that he has topped this 5.5 line due to a lack of a putaway pitch. His slider has been great, but he’s not getting enough Ks with it for me to like the over on this prop.

The matchup is juicy against the Los Angeles Angels but it was in his last start, too. Martin faced the Angels last week, fanning four over five innings.

He has only hit the six-inning mark twice this season, so the shorter outings make it more difficult to rack up strikeouts.

Picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET on 09/25/2024.

Friday’s MLB prop picks are jammed with big-name players.

The pregame narrative: My favourite play is on New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge, and I have additional recommendations on Houston Astros teammates Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 20.

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Best bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+102)

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September has been Judge’s worst statistical month since April but he’s ending strong. 

The soon-to-be AL MVP winner is batting .368 and slugging .789 over the last seven days. Over the last 15, he has a .966 OPS.

Only Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani have a greater percentage of games with two-plus total bases this season, according to Team Rankings.

Judge is hard to get at plus/even money on this prop, so I’m always tempted to bite when I see him in this price range.

The star outfielder leads the majors with 53 homers, is second to Ohtani with 89 extra-base hits and is third in batting average.

Judge will start his night by seeing unspectacular Athletics righty JT Ginn before presumably getting at-bats against an Oakland bullpen that has a 4.93 ERA this month.

Key stat: Opponents are hitting .317/.356/.500 off Ginn over his four MLB starts.

Quick picks

Altuve over 1.5 total bases (+108): I was in on this Altuve prop last night but he was out of the Astros’ lineup.

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I’m going back to it tonight and actually like it even more. Altuve is hitting .323 with an .834 OPS this month, recording 20 hits in 15 games.

His Astros see Los Angeles Angels lefty Tyler Anderson, who has allowed four-plus runs in four of his last six starts to drive up his ERA to a season-high 3.60.

Altuve has done well in this matchup before. The second baseman is batting .391 and slugging .565 in his career versus Anderson.

What I like most, though, is that he’s only struck out once over 25 plate appearances and should be able to put the ball in play.

Bregman over 0.5 RBI (+155): I love a lot of Astros props tonight so it’s about sifting through for value.

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I’m leaving Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker props on the chopping block because they encounter the lefty-lefty matchup and Anderson is holding LHBs to a .211 average.

But they are far from fade candidates for me and I believe Alvarez, at least, can help Bregman cash this. Same with Altuve.

Bregman will likely bat behind the two in a run-producing spot. The third baseman has hit No. 4 or 5 in the order in 10 of 13 games this month.

Like Altuve, Bregman has enjoyed success against Anderson, hitting .294/.458/.765 with two homers and one strikeout in 24 plate appearances.

Picks made at 1:46 p.m. ET on 09/20/2024.

It’s a light Thursday in the MLB world and the latest game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels.

The pregame narrative: I have a play from that game on Jose Altuve and also have a recommendation on Chicago Cubs starter Javier Assad.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 19.

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Best bet: Altuve over 1.5 total bases (-104)

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I’d love to back Altuve on his runs scored prop in what looks like an excellent matchup for his Astros. 

But that’s priced at -137 and his total bases prop offers significantly better value. 

Altuve is having a fantastic month down the stretch, hitting .323 with an .834 OPS and 20 hits in 15 September games.

As the leadoff man, he’ll get more opportunities than anyone else on the Astros, who see Los Angeles Angels lefty Jose Suarez (at least in a bulk role).

Suarez faced the Astros his last time out, throwing four innings following an opener and another reliever. He held Houston off the board and struck out five but he’s not a trustworthy arm.

The southpaw has a 7.46 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over the last two seasons (76 innings), and Altuve has more plate appearances against Suarez than anyone on the Angels.

Key stat: Altuve is batting .412 and slugging .588 in 19 career at-bats versus Suarez.

Quick pick

Assad over 16.5 outs (-125): The Cubs righty is enjoying a strong stretch as far as this play is concerned, clearing this line in five consecutive starts. 

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He has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of those outings. Assad’s last start, which came at Coors Field, was the lone time he fell short. 

Chicago only got 2.2 innings out of starter Justin Steele yesterday, forcing six relievers into action. The game before that, the Cubs used three relievers for four frames following Jordan Wicks’ five-inning outing.

An overworked bullpen can go a long way in helping a pitcher clear his outs prop. But Assad will also benefit from his opponent.

He gets the Washington Nationals, who are 28th in wRC+ and OBP this month, getting on base at a paltry .279 clip. Assad went six innings against them on Aug. 31.

Picks made at 2:18 p.m. ET on 09/19/2024.