My top play for Game 1 of the World Series is on New York Yankees starter Gerrit Cole.
The pregame narrative: Cole will make his fourth start of the postseason and I like him to clear a line he’s struggled against. I have additional plays on New York’s Anthony Rizzo and Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Max Muncy.
Check out the best Yankees vs. Dodgers prop picks for Friday night’s Game 1 in Los Angeles.
Yankees vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best bet: Cole over 4.5 Ks (-129)
There’s a reason why we’re getting this line at a discounted price. Beyond lighter postseason workloads for pitchers, Cole is 0-3 versus this number in the playoffs.
Cole has recorded exactly four strikeouts in all of his outings. But his assignments came against two of the top five most difficult teams to retire on strikes.
The Dodgers haven’t been striking out much and have done a phenomenal job working counts to draw walks. They have 20 homers in 11 playoff games and a 122 wRC+ after pacing MLB in that category during the regular season (118).
Los Angeles’ success at drawing free passes could lead to a shorter outing for Cole, who walked four in his last start and two batters in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Cole has worked more than five innings once this postseason and a shorter outing means fewer chances to get strikeouts.
That said, this is a rare opportunity to get Cole at this price.
New York’s ace had his lowest K rate since 2017 but was still comfortably above the league-average mark.
Cole was much better throwing with extra rest this season, something he’ll be doing for Game 1. He last started on Oct. 15.
Additionally, his ERA was nearly two full runs better on the road, where his K rate spiked 4%.
Los Angeles has been hard to punch out but Shohei Ohtani has a K rate north of 30% this postseason. Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages (if he draws the start against a righty) have a lot of swing and miss in their games, too.
There will be opportunities for Cole, who I’ll take on a 4.5 line at this price against any team.
Key stat: Cole topped this in 12 of 17 starts in the regular season.
Quick picks
Rizzo over 0.5 hits (-114): The veteran first baseman returned for the ALCS and recorded a hit in all four starts.
He had multiple hits twice and has seen Dodgers Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty more than any Yankee.
Rizzo has 28 career plate appearances versus Flaherty, hitting .429 with a 1.476 OPS. What I like most is that he has struck out just twice.
The left-handed-hitting Rizzo is not a huge swing-and-miss bat and Flaherty has eight strikeouts over 15.1 postseason innings. That comes after a September that saw him post his lowest K% of any month this year.
Rizzo should be able to put the ball in play against Flaherty, making this -114 price attractive. He had a hit in 57% of his regular season games.
Muncy over 0.5 RBI (+175): Muncy was limited to 73 games this season but delivered excellent power production and drove in 48 runs.
Hitting behind the fearsome trio of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, Muncy is regularly getting opportunities to cash in if Hernandez hasn’t taken care of the damage first.
Muncy has hit in four different spots this postseason (not higher than fourth, not lower than seventh). The higher he hits, the better. But I like him at this number regardless.
He’s having a strong postseason with a 1.014 OPS, had four RBI in six NLCS games and hits right-handers well.
Picks made at 4:05 p.m. ET 10/23/2024.
