Chris Toman

Gerrit Cole gets the ball in another must-win World Series game for the New York Yankees tonight.

The pregame narrative: I expect Cole to deal against the Los Angeles Dodgers, like he did in Game 1. I’m also backing Aaron Judge and have a play on L.A. starter Jack Flaherty.

Check out the best Dodgers vs. Yankees picks for Game 5 on Wednesday night.

Dodgers vs. Yankees picks

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Best bet: Cole over 16.5 outs (-127)

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These teams are off tomorrow as Game 6 would be in Los Angeles on Friday, so Aaron Boone could unleash his bullpen again. 

But he used four key relievers in consecutive games, including closer Luke Weaver. If Cole is throwing well, I have difficulty seeing Boone taking out his horse. 

Cole might not be pre-2024-level Cole, but he’s still the best starting pitcher in this series as far as I’m concerned. 

The 2023 Cy Young winner was sharp over six innings in Game 1. While the lack of strikeouts was there again, Cole had superb control against a lineup with exceptional plate discipline. 

Cole struck out four (the fourth time this postseason he landed on that number) and walked none. He allowed one run and four hits over 88 pitches. 

While New York’s ace isn’t getting a lot of swing and miss, his nine whiffs were his most this postseason.

Key stat: Cole has topped this line in two of his last three outings (12 of his last 17) and has a 2.82 ERA this postseason.

Quick picks

Judge over 1.5 total bases (-109): Judge’s struggles have been well-documented this postseason, though that’s over a small sample size.

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The soon-to-be AL MVP is in a slump but last night’s game offered some encouraging signs. Perhaps the biggest one: Judge didn’t strike out for the first time in six games. 

Over that stretch, Judge had been retired on strikes in 50% of his plate appearances. His K rate has spiked nearly 10% this postseason and he has a 76 wRC+. 

Judge has not topped this line in six consecutive contests. 

But that’s over 13 games. In 158 regular season games, Judge had an MLB-leading 218 wRC+. You don’t do that by accident. 

He also looked great in an eight-pitch first-inning walk and ripped a 107.8 mph single in a pivotal eighth for New York. It was the fourth-hardest-hit ball of the night. 

Judge has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but he’s not an all-or-nothing power hitter, either. The centre fielder was third in the majors with a .322 batting average.

He topped 1.5 total bases at the fourth-highest rate in MLB, according to Team Rankings.

Flaherty under 15.5 outs (-136): Despite a bullpen game last night, the Dodgers’ bullpen is actually in better shape than New York’s.

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Los Angeles burned Landon Knack for four innings and only two others after opener Ben Casparius.

Their best high-leverage arms got the night off, including both lefty relievers and Blake Treinen.

Because of that availability, I don’t believe Dave Roberts will send Flaherty back out for the sixth inning at Yankee Stadium.

This play is more about who Roberts has at his disposal, but Flaherty has been a mixed bag this postseason with a diminishing K rate over the last two months.

He did clear this in Game 1 but got pulled after allowing a sixth-inning homer to Giancarlo Stanton.

Picks made at 9:59 a.m. ET 10/30/2024.

Four players are featured in tonight’s Game 4 World Series prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I’m fading New York Yankees starter Luis Gil and have plays on Gleyber Torres, as well as Los Angeles Dodgers Mookie Betts and Max Muncy.

Check out the best Dodgers vs. Yankees picks for Game 4.

Dodgers vs. Yankees picks

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Best bet: Gil under 3.5 Ks (+123)

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Without Aaron Boone explicitly revealing his plans, we’re left wondering about Gil’s workload.

I’m guessing it’s going to be on the light side. Gil can change that by pitching a gem but that’s a tall order against the Dodgers.

The righty has made one appearance since Sept. 28 — a four-inning, 79-pitch start versus the Cleveland Guardians in Game 4 of the ALCS 11 days ago. 

He was decent in the Yankees win but struggled with control (three walks), which was an issue all season. 

Playing three days in a row (yesterday and again tomorrow, if necessary), the Yankees would love to save their bullpen.

But they must win tonight to see tomorrow and can pin their hopes on letting ace Gerrit Cole ride in Game 5 if they get there. 

As a result, if not forced by Gil, I think Boone will strategically choose to unleash his ‘pen early. That way, he can set up the best possible matchups against a lineup that features lefty and righty mashers, little swing and miss, and excellent plate discipline. 

Gil can rack up strikeouts but his K rate dipped 4% in the second half and he cooled following an electric May. 

Cole had four Ks in Game 1 and Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt both had three in the next two games.

Key stat: Starting pitchers are 4-10 against this line versus the Dodgers in the playoffs.

Quick picks

Torres over 0.5 runs (-118): New York’s second baseman got on base another two times yesterday and carries a .390 playoff on-base percentage into tonight.

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While Torres didn’t cash last night, he still has nine runs in 12 playoff games. He’s consistently putting the ball in play and drawing free passes, striking out just six times in 59 plate appearances.

While Aaron Judge has been ice-cold, Torres is in a tremendous spot to score in front of the soon-to-be MVP and Juan Soto.

Giancarlo Stanton follows that trio and has a team-leading 14 RBI and 1.110 OPS this postseason.

Since assuming the leadoff role on Aug. 16, Torres has scored 40 runs in 51 games.

Muncy over 0.5 RBI (+188): Muncy has been quiet this series but remains in an excellent position to drive in runs.

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He’s 0-for-9 against the Yankees and hasn’t recorded a hit since Game 4 of the NLCS.

That said, he occupies a key spot in the lineup (primarily No. 5 this postseason). And his teammates’ ability to reach base in front of him means he’ll likely get an opportunity to deliver.

That could come early against Gil, who had MLB’s highest walk rate (minimum 150 innings pitched).

Betts over 0.5 runs (+110): Betts didn’t score last night but he got on base twice and drove in a key run.

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He’s been a force this postseason with a .394 OBP and a team-leading 32 total bases.

Betts has 12 runs in 14 games, crossing the plate in nine different contests.

As the No. 2 hitter, Betts is followed by a collection of thumpers, including Freddie Freeman.

Picks made at 12:38 p.m. ET 10/29/2024.

The World Series heads to New York with the Yankees trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-0.

The pregame narrative: I expect the stars to shine tonight and am taking the over on Juan Soto’s total bases line as my top prop pick for this game. I’m also recommending plays on Gleyber Torres and Mookie Betts.

Check out the best Dodgers vs. Yankees picks for Game 3.

Dodgers vs. Yankees picks

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Best bet: Soto over 1.5 total bases (+135)

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The risk with Soto on a total bases prop is that he’s elite at drawing free passes.

Soto walked at the second-highest clip in the regular season and has an identical 18% walk rate in the playoffs. 

His plate approach is a reason why he can often be had at larger plus-money prices compared to similar sluggers. 

Soto only cashed this prop in 42.3% of his games this season (Shohei Ohtani led MLB at 57%, according to Team Rankings). 

This postseason, Soto is 5-6 against this line. 

But he’s also demolishing the ball when he makes contact (leading the postseason in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per FanGraphs) and the Dodgers are sending their weakest starter to the mound tonight. 

Walker Buehler has big blow-up potential and I like the Yankees to do damage against him to get back in this series. At this price, I’ll gladly back New York’s best hitter.

Key stat: Soto is hitting .350 and slugging .700 with four homers in 11 playoff games.

Quick picks

Torres over 0.5 runs (-112): I would love this at plus money but am fine with this price for New York’s top-of-the-order bat. 

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Torres is having a great postseason, slashing .289/.389/.422. He has nine runs in 11 games, has walked eight times, and only struck out in five of his 54 plate appearances. 

The second baseman is doing a great job getting on base via his bat and eye, and the lack of Ks is appealing. He’s consistently putting the ball in play. 

Torres hits in front of Soto and Aaron Judge, who’s having a miserable postseason but remains dangerous and led MLB with 144 RBI.

Buehler threw well in his lone NLCS start but was rocked in the NLDS. He had his worst big-league season, with a career-high walk rate and career-low K rate.

Torres has scored 40 runs in 50 games since moving into the leadoff spot on Aug. 16.

Betts over 0.5 runs (+116): Here’s a runs-scored prop we can get at plus money. 

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The Dodgers right fielder has been a beast this postseason, entering tonight with a .393 on-base percentage and 1.001 OPS. 

Betts has scored in both World Series contests and in 12 of Los Angeles’ 13 playoff games. 

Freddie Freeman has homered in consecutive games, alleviating any concern about his production while he fights through an ankle injury. 

That makes Betts more attractive on this market, as Freeman hits behind him alongside sluggers Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy.

If Betts gets on base, something he’s done in eight straight playoff games, I like his chances to cross the plate.

Picks made at 9:57 a.m. ET 10/28/2024.