Chris Toman

Monday’s NBA schedule features five games, all starting at 8 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: I’m recommending bets on Jalen Williams and Ivica Zubac, whose teams square off, as well as a play on point guard Jose Alvarado.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 11.

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Best bet: Williams over 19.5 points (-125)

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The Thunder have lost two of three since starting 7-0 and suffered a massive blow in their latest defeat. 

Sophomore star Chet Holmgren is expected to miss at least two months with a hip fracture. It’s an impossible hole for OKC to fill, though certain teammates can benefit from his absence. 

I like Williams to assume an even larger role on the offensive end, making him a worthy target at this line on a back-to-back against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

The 23-year-old averaged 19.1 points in 71 games last season. And his scoring output is identical through 10 contests this season. 

Every one of those games came alongside Holmgren, who combined with Williams to form the top secondary scoring options on the team behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

If Williams — a career 52.8% shooter from the field — gets even a couple of extra shots, it’s a safe bet that his PPG average can surpass the 20-point mark. 

Key stat: Williams has dropped 20-plus points in three of his last four games and in six of 10 on the season.

Quick picks

Zubac over 28.5 points/rebounds (-114): Sticking with the Thunder/Clippers game, I’m targeting Los Angeles’ big 7-foot centre. 

Zubac has been excellent to start the season and has career highs, through 10 games, in the following categories: 

• Minutes (35.0)
• Points (16.4)
• Rebounds (12.7)

He’s one of five players averaging at least 12 boards and only six centres are scoring more than him. 

An undersized Thunder team is even smaller without Holmgren, which could lead to a huge rebounding night for Zubac. He already has three games with 15-plus rebounds and had 12 when he faced OKC at the start of the month. 

Zubac only had a combined 21 points/rebounds that game but was held to a season-low 28 minutes in a 13-point loss. He’s 5-4 against this line in his other nine contests.

Look for a bounce-back effort against a tired and limited Thunder team, which is 29th in the NBA in rebounding rate. The Clippers are third.

Alvarado over 15.5 points (-114): The hobbled New Orleans Pelicans are without CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray.

And Brandon Ingram can’t provide all the scoring while they’re sidelined.

Alvarado’s minutes have gone from sub-20 a night to 30-plus since McCollum went down.

He has topped this line in four of six games since entering the starting rotation and has scored 18-plus points in three straight.

Alvarado has never been a huge scorer but he’s never had an opportunity like this. He’s been strong from the perimeter and should continue to produce out of necessity as long as he’s getting significant run.

The Pelicans get the Brooklyn Nets, who are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating and have not been particularly strong against point guards.

Picks made at 11:31 a.m. ET on 11/11/2024.

NBA fans are treated to a loaded 13-game slate on Friday.

The pregame narrative: My favourite prop picks for the busy evening centre on Mikal Bridges, LeBron James, Alperen Sengun and Jaden Ivey.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 8.

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Best bet: Bridges over 15.5 points (-112)

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Jalen Brunson is an obvious target against the Milwaukee Bucks’ porous defence versus guards. But his points line is a hefty 28.5. 

Even if he cooks, that’s a big number to hit when his scoring is down three points from last season thanks to the New York Knicks’ addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. 

So I’m turning my attention to Bridges, who’s scoring less in New York but has remained efficient from long range. And his shooting from the field is the best it has been since he was tasked with taking on a larger offensive role following his move to Brooklyn. 

Much was rightfully made about Bridges’ new-look shot ahead of the season but he’s shooting 49.5% from the field (his best mark since 2021-22) and 37.0% on 3s, matching his career mark. 

Bridges has scored at least 15 points in all but one game and I expect the Knicks to score plenty on Milwaukee, which is on a back-to-back.

Brunson and Towns may do the heavy lifting. But there should be enough shots to go around for Bridges, the team’s No. 3 scoring option.

Key stat: No team allows more points to guards than Milwaukee, according to Betting Pros.

Quick picks

James under 23.5 points (-114): LeBron’s shot volume is down to a career-low mark and so is his scoring production.

He’s still averaging an exceptional 24.0 points per game, which is particularly impressive considering he’ll turn 40 next month.

While his Los Angeles Lakers have a juicy matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, that’s part of the reason why I’m fading him. Philadelphia is down stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, creating huge blowout potential in this one.

The Lakers are at home and should pump the 76ers, which would give coach J.J. Redick an opportunity to find extra rest for his stars.

An obvious candidate would be James, who is 4-4 versus this line through eight games.

Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (+106): The Houston Rockets centre is averaging a career-best 11.4 rebounds despite logging his fewest minutes since his rookie season. 

Sengun has reached double figures in six of eight games and topped this line five times. 

Only six teams allow more rebounds to the centre position than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have a worse rebounding rate than every team outside of the Washington Wizards.

The only two games Sengun fell short of 10 boards came against the San Antonio Spurs, the No. 2-rebounding team in the NBA. 

We need more than 10 tonight, but he did clear that number in his last two games against OKC.

Ivey over 1.5 threes (-121): Ivey and the Detroit Pistons get the Atlanta Hawks, who are a mess defensively. 

Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive rating, 28th in PPG allowed and last in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Teams are converting 40.6% of their 3-point shots versus Atlanta on an astronomical 43.2 attempts per game. 

Ivey is shooting 41.3% from deep on a career-high 5.1 attempts a night. 

Expect the third-year guard, who is 6-3 versus this line, to unleash from long range.

Picks made at 12:54 p.m. ET on 11/08/2024.

After Tuesday’s night off, the NBA is back with a loaded 12-game slate tonight.

The pregame narrative: I’m targeting guards Jalen Suggs, Russell Westbrook and Jalen Brunson.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Wednesday, Nov. 6.

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Best bet: Suggs over 18.5 points (-113)

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Point guards have lit up the Indiana Pacers this season, including Suggs. 

Suggs is averaging a career-high 17.6 points — five points more than his previous best — and dropped 25 on Indiana at the end of October. 

He had a season-best 28 after that and has cleared this line in two of the three games star Paolo Banchero has been sidelined.

Suggs is getting major run for an Orlando Magic team that needs his production with Banchero (oblique) out indefinitely. The 23-year-old has played 35-plus minutes in four of his past five games. 

More minutes have led to increased shot volume, including from long range where he’s nailing 2.5 a night at a respectable 35.7% rate. 

Suggs has also been adding a few points a night from the line, where he’s shooting 90.0%. 

Five different point guards have scored more than 20 points on the Pacers over their seven games.

Key stat: Indiana is allowing the fourth-most points to PGs in the NBA, according to Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Westbrook over 20.5 points/rebounds (-112): The veteran guard has only cleared this line twice in seven games. But his situation and role with the Denver Nuggets has entirely changed. 

The Nuggets are without two-fifths of their starting rotation, including point guard Jamal Murray. 

Westbrook is coming off a season-high 34 minutes (his second straight 30-plus minute game), dropping 21 points with six boards. 

Getting to 20 against the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating) will be difficult, but Denver will need Westbrook to be aggressive offensively. 

Aaron Gordon is also out, meaning Denver is missing 30-plus points per night between him and Murray. 

Westbrook should also benefit from playing a team that’s weak on the glass. OKC ranks 27th in the NBA in rebounding rate and surrenders the most to opposing point guards. 

He had five rebounds against them in 21 minutes in his Nuggets debut.

Westbrook has largely been in a reserve role the last few seasons but averaged 21.1 points/rebounds, according to StatMuse, in the 32 games he started for the Los Angeles Clippers since 2023.

Brunson over 2.5 threes (+102): Brunson’s long-range volume is down but he’s shooting 50.0% from deep on five attempts per game.

He has cleared this line in half his games and gets an ultra-juicy matchup versus the Atlanta Hawks tonight:

• Atlanta ranks 28th in PPG allowed
• Last in opponent 3-point percentage
• 29th in PPG allowed to point guards

Opponents are averaging 42.8 threes against them per game, which is also the most in the NBA.

Brunson has the sixth-highest usage rate in the NBA, according to StatMuse, and gets a Hawks team playing at the third-fastest pace. He won’t be short on opportunities to carve them up on Wednesday.

Picks made at 1:16 p.m. ET on 11/06/2024.

Every NBA team is in action on Monday ahead of a league-wide night off on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: I’m targeting four players, including Paul George in his debut with the Philadelphia 76ers. I also have plays on Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton and Payton Pritchard.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 4.

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Best bet: Pritchard over 14.5 points (-114)

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Pritchard isn’t the biggest name among these four but I love the Boston Celtics guard to clear this line against the Atlanta Hawks.

Here’s why:

• No. 2 scoring option Jaylen Brown is out
• Atlanta allows the most PPG to point guards
• Pritchard is averaging career highs in minutes and points

On top of that, he gets a Hawks team that’s surrendering over 120 points per game (28th in the NBA) and plays at a top-five pace.

Atlanta controlling pace for chunks of this game will lead to a lot of scoring opportunities for the Celtics, who are No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating.

Pritchard’s volume is up considerably and Brown’s absence should keep the shots flowing.

Key stat: Powered by the long ball (4.1/game), Pritchard has dropped 15-plus points in five of seven contests.

Quick picks

George over 25.5 points/rebounds/assists (-114): The nine-time all-star has missed the 76ers’ first five games recovering from a knee injury.

It’s safe to assume he’ll be on a minutes restriction so there’s risk with betting on his player props. But I’ll take the risk on a light PRA line when he’s returning to a 76ers team that desperately needs him.

Philadelphia, without George and Joel Embiid, is 1-4 and fifth-worst in the NBA in scoring. The team only has three double-digit scorers and none of them have been efficient.

The 76ers should lean on George right away to help out Tyrese Maxey on the offensive end, and he thrived as a No. 2 scoring option during his time with the Los Angeles Clippers.

George averaged at least 21.0 PPG in all five seasons with the Clippers and 10-plus rebounds/assists. He can rebound and distribute and is a strong outside shooter.

His first game of the season comes on the road against the 5-1 Phoenix Suns.

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-129): Only four teams are allowing more points than the Charlotte Hornets, whom Edwards will see tonight.

The 23-year-old has been a menace from the perimeter, averaging an NBA-high 5.3 makes per game. He’s attempting 12.3, which puts him at the top alongside Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball.

Shooting 43.2% from deep — a career-best mark — we might not see Edwards’ long-range volume slow any time soon.

Edwards has topped this in five of six games and finished with three the one time he fell short. He should feast on Charlotte, which ranks last in the NBA in defensive rating.

Haliburton over 8.5 assists (-112): Tonight’s Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks game has the highest total of Monday’s loaded slate.

Dallas has been excellent defensively but is on a back-to-back against a Pacers team that hasn’t played since Friday.

Haliburton only had 11 total assists in his first three games. But has has dished out 10-plus dimes in three games since.

The Pacers point guard averaged 10-plus assists in back-to-back seasons and 9.6 the year before that.

He topped this number both times he played Dallas last season and had at least nine assists in 50 of his 69 games.

Picks made at 12:57 p.m. on 11/04/2024.

It’s a busy Friday night in the NBA and I’m serving up three prop picks for the nine-game slate.

The pregame narrative: The plays are on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, DeMar DeRozan and Evan Mobley.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 1.

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points (-110)

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Oklahoma City is scoring six fewer points per game than last season. 

Chet Holmgren is averaging five more points in his sophomore season. 

And the Thunder have only needed Gilgeous-Alexander for more than 30 minutes twice in four games. 

Gilgeous-Alexander has never been a great 3-point shooter, and certainly not a volume-based long-range chucker, but he’s averaging a whopping five more per game than last season.

The early returns haven’t been great: 27.3% on 8.3 attempts. That has sunk his field goal percentage to a career-low mark.

All of the above explains his early scoring dip.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage remains sky-high (sixth in the NBA). But poor efficiency over fewer minutes has predictably led to a scoring decline for the OKC guard who averaged 30-plus points in back-to-back seasons. 

He has one 30-plus point game under his belt and more are certainly coming for the gifted scorer who gets to the free-throw line at an elite rate. 

But I’m good to fade him on a 28.5 total in a game with blowout potential.

As of early Friday afternoon, the Thunder are 11.5-point favourites against the Portland Trail Blazers.

They have the best defensive rating in the NBA by far. This game could be over early, leading to a lot of fourth-quarter resting for Oklahoma City’s starters.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander is 1-3 against this line and point guards have gone under this number in all five games versus Portland.

Quick picks

DeRozan over 29.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120): The 35-year-old veteran remains a steady scorer, dropping 20-plus points through his first four games with the Sacramento Kings.

There are more mouths to feed on Sacramento than what DeRozan experienced with the Chicago Bulls last season but that hasn’t affected his scoring.

It might, especially if his shot volume doesn’t uptick, but DeRozan is getting major minutes (37.0 per night) and De’Aaron Fox has appeared to be fine taking on less offensively.

Fox’s scoring is down, leading to DeRozan dropping 23.0 points per game and Domantas Sabonis contributing a career-high mark.

DeRozan has topped this line in three of four games and has been well above it in each of the last nine seasons.

Friday’s matchup against the Atlanta Hawks has the highest projected total of the night.

Atlanta is allowing the third-most points per game and both teams are playing at a top-10 pace, according to StatMuse.

Mobley over 15.5 points (-118): The fourth-year forward is off to a strong start for the 5-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Mobley has topped this line in four of five games, averaging a career-best 19.2 PPG.

The Cavaliers have several offensive options but that hasn’t stopped Mobley’s usage rate from rising significantly this season.

He’s an efficient scorer who doesn’t need a ton of shots to get to this number and he’s been dynamite from the charity stripe.

The Orlando Magic are without star Paolo Banchero, who rebounds well and his absence could create some easy opportunities at the basket for Mobley.

Picks made at 12:45 p.m. on 11/01/2024.

There are several stars in action for tonight’s four-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: I’m targeting three of them, recommending plays on Ja Morant, Jalen Green and Kevin Durant.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 31.

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Best bet: Morant over 21.5 points (-107)

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My biggest worry is Morant’s availability on a back-to-back. But we’ll get our stake back if the Grizzlies elect to sit their star point guard. 

Morant is averaging 19.0 points through four games. He hasn’t topped 24 and scored a total of 30 in his last two games. 

A significant drop in minutes is hurting his scoring output (he’s been held under 30 each game), but his per-36-minute-scoring average is also down four points from his last two full seasons.

That dip can be chalked up to poor shooting. Morant is shooting a miserable 16.7% from long range and his field goal percentage is down 5% from his career average.

Now on to the good news.

Morant has been aggressive, getting to the line at a near-career-high rate on 83.3% shooting. And he did top this line in his first two games.

The talented 25-year-old is bound to start upping his production, and the Milwaukee Bucks represent a juicy matchup.

Milwaukee defends the point guard position poorly. That was the case last season as well. Replacing Jrue Holiday with Damian Lillard has tremendously impacted its ability on that side of the ball. 

The Bucks, according to Betting Pros, are allowing the most points per game to PGs. Last season, they ranked third-worst. 

Also helping Morant’s outlook: Fellow guard Desmond Bane left Wednesday’s game with an oblique injury, meaning he could be limited Thursday if he doesn’t outright sit.

Key stat: Morant averaged 25-plus points in each of the last three seasons.

Quick picks

Durant over 32.5 points/rebounds (-120): There’s risk that Bradley Beal sits, as he’s officially questionable with an elbow injury.

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This looks like a smash play if Beal is out but I still like it even if he does suit up.

Durant averaged 35.6 points/rebounds in 26 games without Beal last season, their first together as Phoenix Suns teammates.

He had season highs of 31 points and nine rebounds in the one game Beal missed this season.

Durant is playing great and gets the Los Angeles Clippers on a back-to-back. He’s dropping a team-leading 29.0 PPG and adding 7.0 rebounds, matching his career average.

The veteran forward had 32 points/rebounds in the Suns’ season opener against L.A. and has topped this line every game since.

Green over 3.5 threes (+112): The Dallas Mavericks have been torched by shooting guards and tonight they’ll be tasked with stopping one of the league’s hottest ones.

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Green is averaging 28.8 points, powered by his 4.8 threes per game. Only two players are averaging more triples and he’s attempting a whopping 11.5, topping all but four guys.

The 22-year-old Houston Rocket has beaten this line in three of four games and landed on three the one time he fell short.

No team allows more points to SGs than the Mavericks, per Betting Pros.

Picks made at 1:26 p.m. on 10/31/2024.