Chris Toman

I have three NBA player prop predictions for Monday’s busy nine-game slate.

Today’s NBA props narrative: A best bet on Anthony Davis headlines the recommendations. Davis was on a heater before getting injured yet again, and I like him to pick things back up now that he has a game under his belt.

Find out why in my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 1, featuring predictions on Myles Turner and Tyler Herro.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Dec. 1

Best bet: Davis 30+ points/rebounds (+104)

The Dallas Mavericks have a difficult road matchup against Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets, the No. 1 offensive team in the NBA.

Down several frontcourt bodies, this game has blowout potential. Denver is an 11-point favourite as of early Monday afternoon.

But those injuries could help the injury-prone Davis accumulate tonight. And it’s not like the star needs much extra help anyway.

• Davis averaged 25.1 points and 12.3 rebounds over the last three seasons.

• AD will be Dallas’ clear-cut No. 1 option on offence tonight and started the season on a tear while assuming that role.

-> Bet on tonight’s 9-game NBA slate

Davis is averaging 19.3 points and 9.3 rebounds this season but has only played six times. An injury-shortened game and a minutes restriction impact those numbers.

He was on a tear before suffering an injury Oct. 29, smashing this number in four straight games.

There’s clear downside on this play (the matchup, rust and a potential minutes cap). But the upside is enormous.

Key stat: Davis averaged 25.0 points and 11.8 rebounds over four games to start the season.

Best NBA picks

Turner over 6.5 rebounds (-103): Turner isn’t a great rebounder, considering he’s a 6-foot-11 centre, but the Washington Wizards are terrible on the glass.

And getting to seven boards doesn’t require Turner to be great tonight. He’s averaging 6.3 rebounds per game, so he can clear this line without doing anything out of the ordinary.

-> Bet on moneylines, spreads & more at NorthStar Bets!

Turner’s Milwaukee Bucks played the Wizards to kick off the season and the veteran corralled eight rebounds in that outing. For the season, he’s 12-9 against this line.

He’s been held to three rebounds in each of his past two contests, but here’s why I like him to get back on track tonight:

• Washington is last in the NBA in rebounding rate.

• The Wizards particularly get rocked by the bigger positions. They allow the most rebounds per game to centres, per Betting Pros, and the second-most to the two forward positions.

• Washington is an NBA-worst 2-16, but the Bucks have dropped seven of eight and are 21st in defensive rating. If Washington can stick around for most of the game, it should help Turner stay on the court and accrue more opportunities on the glass.

NBA player prop predictions

Herro over 2.5 threes (-105): Herro has played three times since undergoing offseason ankle surgery and has delivered in a big way.

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

• 24 points vs. Dallas
• 29 points vs. Milwaukee
• 24 points vs. Detroit

He has cleared this number twice, including a 6-for-11 effort from 3-point range last time out.

Herro established career-high marks in made 3s (3.3) and attempts (8.7) last season and is a career 38.3% shooter from beyond the arc.

There’s reason to think he’ll continue unloading tonight vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 27th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage and allow more triples than all but three teams.

NBA prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among three players featured in Wednesday’s top NBA prop picks.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are on a heater, but I believe that will work against SGA on a certain prop market tonight.

Find out why in my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 19, featuring predictions on PJ Washington and Rudy Gobert.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Nov. 19

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points (-121)

Gilgeous-Alexander has a plus matchup and it’s completely in the realm of possibilities that he drops a 40-piece on the Sacramento Kings. 

But I think it’s more likely that the reigning MVP’s minutes are limited once again as a result of another Thunder blowout. 

Gilgeous-Alexander is having a fantastic season, ranking third in the NBA in scoring (31.9 per game) despite logging fewer than 30 minutes in more than half of his games. That includes each of his last four. 

The 14-1 Thunder haven’t needed to push him hard in many fourth quarters thanks to 10 double-digit victories.

-> Bet on tonight’s 9-game NBA slate

Their opponent is on the opposite end. Sacramento has been getting chewed apart. The Kings’ last six games, all losses, have been ugly: 

• Nov. 16 @ SA: 123-110
• Nov. 14 @ MIN: 124-110
• Nov. 12 vs. ATL: 133-100
• Nov. 11 vs. DEN: 122-108
• Nov. 9 vs. MIN: 144-117
• Nov. 7 Vs. OKC: 132-101

Oklahoma City — the No. 1 team in defensive rating — also beat the Kings in October. Gilgeous-Alexander hit the 30-point mark in both games but fell short of this total each time. 

Key stat: SGA has failed to top 31.5 points in 10 of his 15 games.

Embed: #121244

Best NBA picks

Washington over 6.5 rebounds (-110): Washington has three double-digit rebounding games and is regularly topping this number. 

He’s 10-3 vs. this line (excluding an injury-shortened five-minute game last week) and starts for the Dallas Mavericks, who are missing top rebounder Anthony Davis.

-> Bet on Knicks vs. Mavericks at NorthStar Bets!

Washington has cleared this line in four straight and is coming off a career-best rebounding campaign (7.8 boards/game). He’s at 7.5 this season. 

Dallas is a 5.5-point home underdog vs. the New York Knicks, who are without OG Anunoby, while Jalen Brunson is questionable after missing two straight. 

Those two being out would give Dallas a much better chance to keep this close, leading to more minutes and opportunities for Washington.

NBA player prop predictions

Gobert over 11.5 points (-110): The Minnesota Timberwolves’ big man should have a game tonight against the lowly Washington Wizards.

• Washington has one win this season and enters on an 11-game skid. 

• The Wizards surrender the most rebounds to opposing centres in the NBA and the fourth-most points, per Betting Pros. 

• Only three teams allow more points in the paint, which is where Gobert does all his scoring. 

• The Wizards have the second-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA.

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

Gobert (10.7 PPG) isn’t a big scorer but he can contribute in the right matchups. He’s topped this number six times in 14 games.

Washington’s lack of rebounding should help Gobert clean up on the offensive glass, leading to some easy putback opportunities.

Gobert is converting at a near-90% rate in the paint, per NBA.com. That’s the top field goal percentage in the NBA among players taking more than two shots per game in that area.

NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on Nov. 19, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

I’m backing some big-name guards on Friday night in a loaded, nine-game NBA slate.

Today’s NBA props narrative: De’Aaron Fox will see the Golden State Warriors for the second consecutive game, and I’m confident he’ll be more involved this time around. I like him to pile up points and expect the same from Los Angeles Lakers superstar Luka Doncic.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 14, featuring a prediction on Karl-Anthony Towns.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Nov. 14

Best bet: Fox to score 20+ points (-130)

These teams played on Wednesday and Fox fell well below this line for the first time this season.

The point guard has been limited to three games, but he kicked off his return from a hamstring injury with back-to-back 20-plus-point contests.

Golden State held Fox to 13 points in a high-scoring game that saw Victor Wembanyama (31 points) and Steph Curry (46) steal the show.

Even if those stars deliver an encore performance, Fox looks like a good bounce-back candidate to me. Here’s why:

• Volume hasn’t been a concern. In the loss to Golden State, Fox put up 14 shots for the third straight game.

• He played 36 minutes after logging 37 in his previous game, so he’s not dealing with a minutes restriction.

• Fox has big scoring upside, averaging more than 20.0 PPG in six straight seasons and topping the 25-point mark three times.

-> Bet on tonight’s 9-game NBA slate

Key stat: Golden State allows the fourth-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros, and has surrendered 120-plus points in four of its last five games.

Embed: #120988

Best NBA picks

Doncic over 31.5 points (-110): This is a huge number, but it’s going to be the norm as long as LeBron James is out and Doncic keeps chucking up an enormous volume of shots.

Tyrese Maxey leads all qualified players with an average of 22.6 shot attempts per game. Doncic is averaging 23.9.

The only other time he’s been above 22.0 was the 2023-24 season, when he averaged a career-high 33.9 PPG. Through eight games, Doncic is at 34.9.

-> Bet on Luka Doncic & the Lakers!

• Doncic has scored 35-plus points five times.

• He’s taken 10-plus shots from deep in all but one game, averaging a career-high 11.4 attempts.

• The Lakers face the New Orleans Pelicans, who are 25th in the NBA in points allowed per game (121.6).

Opposing teams have been letting it fly from beyond the arc vs. New Orleans. Expect Doncic to keep firing triples, helping lead to another huge scoring night against the Western Conference-worst Pelicans.

NBA player prop predictions

Towns over 38.5 points/rebounds (-117): The Miami Heat are without rim protector Bam Adebayo and are a bottom-10 team in the NBA in points allowed in the paint.

Adebayo got hurt on Nov. 5 vs. the Denver Nuggets. Miami allowed 122 points that game and has surrendered at least 130 in three of four since.

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

Towns should feast as the primary option for the New York Knicks tonight.

While his scoring is down (20.2 PPG), expect him to get well past that number with team-leading scorer Jalen Brunson on the sidelines.

• Towns averaged 25.3 PPG in 15 games without Brunson last season, per StatMuse.

• In addition to the scoring upside, Towns is a beast on the glass. He’s averaging 12.6 rebounds per game (third in the NBA).

NBA prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 14, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Two players from tonight’s Indiana Pacers and Phoenix Suns game are featured in Thursday’s best NBA prop picks.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Dillon Brooks has been steady in the scoring department and a good matchup should allow him to keep things rolling tonight. Pascal Siakam might do damage in that game, too, but I don’t expect big production from him on the glass.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 13, featuring a best bet prediction on Canadian Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA today!

NBA prop picks Nov. 13

Best bet: Alexander-Walker over 20.5 points/assists (-112)

Alexander-Walker is flirting with this number every game and flashing 20-point upside.

His Atlanta Hawks will be on a back-to-back tonight, but their fifth-ranked defence should keep this game close, giving Alexander-Walker a good chance to get 30-plus minutes of run.

Against one of the league’s worst defensive teams, that should lead to another night of steady production.

The Utah Jazz rank 25th in the NBA in defensive rating, surrendering more than 120 points a game.

-> Check out full betting markets for tonight’s NBA slate

Alexander-Walker is coming off a 14-point, four-assist game but was limited to a season-low 22 minutes in last night’s blowout 33-point win. 

Before that, he had reached 20 points/assists in six consecutive games.

• Nov. 7 vs. TOR: 30 min, 20 pts, 3 ast
• Nov. 4 vs. ORL: 32 min, 20 pts, 2 ast
• Nov. 2 @ CLE: 34 min, 16 pts, 5 ast 
• Oct. 31 @ IND: 32 min, 21 pts, 3 ast
• Oct. 29 @ BKN: 32 min, 18 pts, 3 ast 
• Oct. 27 @ CHI: 30 min, 17 pts, 3 ast

Key stat: Alexander-Walker is 6-4 vs. this line and is averaging a career-high 17.2 points per game.

Embed: #120961

Best NBA picks

Brooks over 16.5 points (-115): It’s still early, but Brooks is off to his best scoring season since 2021-22. 

The 1-10 Pacers have been a mess defensively and just gave up 152 points to the Jazz on Tuesday.

-> Bet on Pacers vs. Suns on Thursday night!

Efficiency has remained a problem for Brooks, but he’s getting plenty of volume and uncorking a career-high 8.0 threes per game.

His 2.5 triples and extra work at the line have helped him chip in 18.3 PPG in his first season with the Phoenix Suns. 

Brooks has scored at least 16 points in all six of his games. He’s likely to be guarded by a combination of undersized Pacers and Siakam, who carries the load for Indiana on the offensive end.

NBA player prop predictions

Siakam under 6.5 rebounds (+110): Speaking of Siakam, I’m ending today’s selections with this plus-money play. 

-> See all Pascal Siakam prop markets

The veteran is averaging 7.6 rebounds, but that number is propped up by a few outlier games, most notably the season opener when he corralled 15 boards in double overtime.

• Siakam has failed to reach seven rebounds in six consecutive games. 

• He’s 3-7 vs. this line and has never been a proficient rebounder (6.7/game for his career).

The Suns have yet to submit an injury report as of 2:30 p.m. ET, but Siakam will face an even greater uphill battle if he’s forced to compete on the glass with Phoenix’s Mark Williams.

NBA prop picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on Nov. 13, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

It’s a busy Wednesday night in the NBA, featuring 12 games and loads of player prop options.

Today’s NBA props narrative: I’m dialling up three recommendations, including a best bet on De’Aaron Fox. The San Antonio Spurs point guard has been strong since returning from injury and should keep up his production in a favourable matchup.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 12, featuring predictions on Paolo Banchero and Trey Murphy.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA today!

NBA prop picks Nov. 12

Best bet: Fox over 20.5 points (-112)

The Spurs have wasted no time unleashing Fox, which has paid immediate dividends.

Fox, who missed the first few weeks of the season recovering from a hamstring strain, has been sharp in two performances to kick off his 2025-26 campaign.

• Oct. 11 @ CHI: 37 mins, 8-of-14 shooting, 21 points.

• Oct. 8 vs. NO: 31 mins, 9-of-14 shooting, 24 points.

Both games resulted in wins for the Spurs.

Fox has big scoring upside, averaging 25-plus points three times in his career as the No. 1 option with the Sacramento Kings.

-> Check out full prop markets on Fox, Wembanyama & more!

His circumstances are different now, playing alongside Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio, but the high-usage guard will have every opportunity to form a potent 1-2 scoring punch with the French phenom.

Fox has an excellent matchup against the Golden State Warriors, who are on a back-to-back and got torched last night.

Beyond the fatigue factor, the Warriors have been horrific at defending point guards, allowing the third-most points to the position (per Betting Pros).

Key stat: Golden State has given up 120-plus points in three of its last four games.

Embed: #120914

Best NBA picks

Banchero over 7.5 rebounds (-127): The New York Knicks are an excellent rebounding team, fuelled by starting centre Karl-Anthony Towns’ 12.7 per game (fourth in the NBA).

But New York is on a back-to-back, which means we might not see the best version of this team tonight.

And Banchero has been putting in work on the glass. 

-> Bet on tonight’s Magic vs. Knicks Eastern Conference clash

The young Orlando Magic star is averaging a career-best 9.1 rebounds per game, a significant jump from the 7.5 he averaged in an injury-shortened campaign last season. 

• Banchero has five double-digit rebounding games and is 8-3 vs. this line on the season.

• The 23-year-old has gobbled up nine-plus boards in six of his last seven contests.

NBA player prop predictions

Murphy over 27.5 points/rebounds (-115): The fifth-year forward has turned in some big duds early on but he’s also blown past this line multiple times, including each of his last two games.

• Murphy dropped 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in Monday’s loss to the Phoenix Suns.

• The game before that, he scored a career-high 41 points and added nine rebounds.

With Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole out, Murphy is competing with no one on this New Orleans Pelicans team for shots.

-> Bet on tonight’s 12-game NBA slate at NorthStar Bets!

And plenty of the volume we see from him tonight should come from long range, allowing Murphy to pile up points if he can get into a rhythm.

Murphy has attempted 10-plus shots from distance in four of his last six games. He’s buried five-plus triples in each of those contests.

Averaging a career-high 7.0 rebounds, Murphy faces a Portland Trail Blazers team that’s surrendering just shy of 120 points a night.

NBA prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, 2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

I’m dialling up four NBA prop picks for Friday’s packed 11-game slate.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: There’s plenty to choose from, but I’ve landed on two plus-money plays, dependable Canadian Andrew Wiggins, and Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren, who’s my best bet in a juicy matchup vs. the dreadful Brooklyn Nets.

Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 7, featuring predictions on Dallas Mavericks teammates Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA today!

NBA prop picks Nov. 7

Best bet: Duren over 28.5 points/rebounds (-125)

The Nets are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 1-7 record. 

Detroit is a 10.5-point road favourite, so this game isn’t expected to be competitive. But Duren should feast while he’s on the court and power the Pistons to a comfortable victory.

• Brooklyn is giving up 124.5 points per game, ranking last in the NBA in defensive rating.

• Only two teams are getting scored on more in the paint, and only two have a lower rebounding rate, making Brooklyn susceptible to big men who crash the boards and can finish. 

• The Nets surrender the fifth-most points to centres, per Betting Pros.

-> Full prop markets for tonight’s NBA action

Duren enters averaging a career-best 17.9 points. He does his damage close to the basket, ranking just outside the top 10 in PPG in the paint.

His high-efficiency shots have led to a 61.9% mark from the field, and he’s been excellent from the line (83%).

The 6-foot-10 centre is coming off a monster 22-point, 22-rebound effort, propelling him to seventh in the NBA in RPG.

Key stat: Duren has topped this line in four of his last six games.

Embed: #120733

NBA player prop predictions

Wiggins over 1.5 threes (-137): The Charlotte Hornets are getting killed on the outside, allowing 15 triples per game on nearly 40% shooting. 

They are among the worst perimeter defenders in the league. A strong 3-point shooting team like the Miami Heat should tee up from long range.

-> Check out Friday’s NBA betting lines

Norman Powell is the best of the bunch, but Wiggins is another threat who’s shooting efficiently.

• The Canadian has nailed multiple triples in four of his last five games.

• Wiggins has never been a high-volume shooter from deep, but he’s dependable, converting at a 38.1% clip since the 2020-21 season. 

• Through eight games, he’s connected on 38.9% of his 3-balls.

Miami will be without starting centre and second-leading scorer Bam Adebayo (foot), which should create more usage for Wiggins.

Mavericks predictions vs. Grizzlies

Flagg over 7.5 rebounds (+110): The Memphis Grizzlies are a mess, but the Mavericks are down Anthony Davis, creating potential for a close game and heavy minutes for the starters. 

Flagg has been getting plenty of run, logging 34-plus minutes in four straight. The more he’s out there, the more chances he’ll have to contribute on the glass.

-> Bet on No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg on Friday night

He has cleared this line three times in his last four games and also corralled 10 rebounds in his NBA debut. 

Dallas has the worst rebounding rate in the NBA, but someone has to pick up the slack sans Davis, and Flagg and Washington have been doing just that.

Washington to double-double (+117): The 27-year-old has double-doubled in two straight games, both without Davis. 

And he has several other near-misses this season.

-> Bet on NBA props, SGPs & more at NorthStar Bets!

• Oct. 29 vs. Pacers: 9 pts, 11 rebs
• Oct. 27 vs. Thunder: 15 pts, 9 rebs
• Oct. 24 vs. Wizards: 18 pts, 9 rebs

In three games without Davis, Washington has logged 36-38 minutes, averaging 16.7 points and 9.3 rebounds. 

The Grizzlies are allowing the third-most points per game in the NBA, leading to scoring upside for Washington, who has dropped 15-plus in six of his eight contests. 

Washington is averaging career highs in points and rebounds and getting to the line more than ever before (4.9 attempts/game).

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!