Chris Toman

It’s a point guard-heavy night for Friday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on Coby White, Tyrese Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox, covering three different betting markets.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 22.

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Best bet: White over 20.5 points (-114)

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White didn’t capitalize on a plus matchup in his last game but he gets another tonight. 

He was held to 14 points against the Milwaukee Bucks, one of the worst teams in the NBA at containing point guards. 

On Friday, his Chicago Bulls get the Atlanta Hawks, who allow the third-most points and 3-pointers to the position, according to Betting Pros. 

White faced the Hawks earlier this month and dropped 18 points on 6-of-14 shooting but enters the night averaging a career-high 19.5 PPG.

He’s averaging 3.5 threes on 8.9 attempts (both career highs) and should excel from long range.

The Hawks are 30th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage and allow the most attempts per night.

Several point guards this month have topped 20 points against Atlanta, which ranks 28th in the NBA in PPG allowed.

• Nov. 20: Steph Curry (23)
• Nov. 18: Fox (28) 
• Nov. 15: Jordan Poole (22) 
• Nov. 8: Cade Cunningham (22)
• Nov. 6: Jalen Brunson (21)
• Nov. 1: Fox (21)

Key stat: White has cleared this line in 50% of his games, also finishing with 20 points twice.

Quick picks

Haliburton over 26.5 points/assists (-107): Haliburton isn’t playing well. But that doesn’t make him an auto-fade, especially on this combo market when he remains an upper-tier distributor. 

He’s averaging 8.5 assists, eighth in the NBA, and has dished out 10-plus dimes in seven of 15 games. 

That’s down from the double-digit totals he averaged the last two seasons, and his scoring dip is even more pronounced. 

Haliburton enters the night with dreadful percentages from the field (37.5%) and long range (28.4%). Both represent career-low marks and his scoring average is down five points from a season ago.

But his struggles have been accounted for in this light line, which hovered around 30 earlier in the season. 

Against Milwaukee, this is a good spot for Haliburton to get his scoring back on track.

• The Bucks are 23rd in opponent 3PT%
• They give up the fourth-most points to PGs
• This game is tied for Friday’s second-highest total (236)

Haliburton averaged 27.0 points and 11.0 assists in five regular-season games against Milwaukee last season, clearing this line every time.

Fox over 5.5 assists (+108): There’s solid value here as Fox’s Sacramento Kings welcome back two of their best players.

Neither DeMar DeRozan nor Domantas Sabonis are listed on Friday’s injury report. DeRozan (22.9 PPG) has missed Sacramento’s last three games, where Fox went off for 60, 49 and 28 points.

That scoring production won’t continue with DeRozan and Sabonis returning. Sabonis, another 20-point scorer, has missed the last two.

As the point guard, it will be Fox’s job to get those two the ball against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

Fox is more of a scorer than a distributor but he’s topped this line in four straight and more than half his games this season.

Picks made at 12:19 p.m. ET on 11/22/2024.

Coby White and Devin Booker are featured in tonight’s top prop picks for the eight-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: White has a tasty matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks and I’m fading Booker, whose injured Phoenix Suns are reeling. I also have a play on Draymond Green.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 20.

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Best bet: White over 20.5 points (-121)

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Through 15 games, the Chicago Bulls point guard is averaging a career-high 19.9 points.

Tonight, he gets a juicy matchup that he exploited earlier this season. The 24-year-old torched the Bucks for a season-high 35 points in Chicago’s second game. 

Targeting opposing PGs versus the Bucks has been a strategy of mine and there’s no reason to shy away from it tonight. 

• Milwaukee is surrendering the second-most points to PGs, per Betting Pros.

• The Bucks have a -9.4 net rating when Damian Lillard is on the court, per Basketball Reference’s on/off numbers. Lillard averages a team-high 35.8 minutes per game.

• Only five teams are allowing opponents to shoot better from 3-point range. 

This all bodes well for White, who has two 25-plus-point games in his last three and has been excellent from deep. 

White is drilling 3.6 threes per game on 9.0 attempts. Both are career-high marks. 

He has nailed at least five triples in more than a third of his games and had a season-high seven when he lit up Lillard and the Bucks last month.

Key stat: White is 8-7 versus this line, landing on 20 points two of the times he fell short.

Quick picks

Booker under 38.5 pts/reb/ast (-109): Phoenix is built around a three-headed monster and two-thirds of it is on the sidelines tonight.

Wednesday marks the fifth consecutive game the Suns will play without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. They’ve lost all four of the previous matchups. 

Phoenix is 1-5 since Durant went down with a calf injury. 

With those two out, Booker becomes an easy target for opposing defences. The gifted scorer hasn’t upped his production without Durant. 

His PRA stats are essentially flat, which doesn’t come close to this line. 

• Booker is averaging 33.4 PRA without Durant
• He’s 1-5 vs. this line without Durant
• The all-star is 3-12 vs. this line on the season

Booker would need to feast on a New York Knicks team that is sure to double-team him and throw excellent defenders his way, such as OG Anunoby.

Green over 22.5 PRA (-104): There’s value here ahead of what’s sure to be a high-scoring game. 

As of early Wednesday afternoon, the over/under for Wednesday’s Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors matchup is 239 points. That’s the highest total of the night.

The Hawks are a mess defensively and play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA, which should lead to an excellent night for the Warriors. 

• Golden State is 5th in pace and 5th in offensive rating
• Atlanta is surrendering 119.5 PPG (28th in the NBA)
• Warriors have scored 120-plus points in 3 of their last 4

This projects to be a strong environment for Green, the team’s second-leading rebounder, to produce across the board.

With Steph Curry probable, the assists should be there for Green. He has six-plus dimes in five straight.

Green is averaging 24.0 PRA in November, topping this line in six of eight games.

Picks made at 1:38 p.m. ET on 11/20/2024.

Luka Doncic, Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday make up my prop pick recommendations for tonight’s NBA Cup games.

The pregame narrative: Doncic on a combo market is my favourite play on Tuesday. I like Paul to contribute across the board and am backing Holiday to get points versus the 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 19.

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Best bet: Doncic over 15.5 assists/rebounds (-127)

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The biggest concern with this play is Doncic’s availability. 

He’s officially questionable after missing the Dallas Mavericks’ last game with a knee issue. Assuming Doncic does play, this is a light line for the Dallas superstar. 

Doncic’s numbers are down this season but we know his upside is as big as nearly anyone’s on this market. 

• 2019-20 RPG/APG: 18.2
• 2020-21 RPG/APG: 16.6
• 2021-22 RPG/APG: 17.8
• 2022-23 RPG/APG: 16.6
• 2023-24 RPG/APG: 19.0

The nightly triple-double threat is down to 15.6 through 13 games, but that number is at 16.5 in November.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a mess and facing a likely blowout situation. But Doncic can put up monster lines in reduced minutes. 

This situation doesn’t require a deep dive into the numbers for me. It’s a plus matchup against a bad team. 

Doncic’s assist/rebound line has largely been set at 16.5 or 17.5, so I’m happy to jump in on the dip.

Key stat: Doncic is 5-3 against this line in November. 

Quick picks

Paul over 20.5 points/rebounds/assists (-118): Sticking with the combo markets, I like Paul to fill the stat sheet versus the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Victor Wembanyama is doubtful with a knee injury, so there’s risk the San Antonio Spurs get run out of the building against OKC (11-3, first in the West). 

But Paul has a great opportunity on the glass and ranks seventh in the NBA in assists per game (8.4). 

The Thunder are last in the NBA in rebounding rate and surrender the most boards to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros.

Paul faced them in October, scoring 14 points while adding another 14 assists/rebounds. 

The veteran point guard is 7-4 against this number in his last 11 games and is averaging 22.5 PRA on the season.

Holiday over 12.5 points (-106): The highest-profile game of the night has a robust 234.5 total as of early Tuesday afternoon.

There are big scoring options on both sides but one player who shouldn’t be slept on is the Boston Celtics’ Holiday.

Point guards have shredded the Cavaliers and Holiday has been clearing this number with regularity this month.

Surprisingly, considering their record and No. 7 defensive rating, no team allows more points or 3-pointers to opposing PGs.

Holiday might not be a big scorer on this Celtics team, but he averaged 19.1 per game over six seasons before joining Boston, demonstrating his ability to put the ball in the net.

He’s just shy of two triples per game and is 6-2 against this line in November.

Picks made at 11:58 a.m. ET on 11/19/2024.

De’Aaron Fox is scorching and is my top target on the NBA prop market on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Fox has scored over 100 points in his last two games and sets up well for another massive night. I also have plays on Franz Wagner and Fred VanVleet.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 18.

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Best bet: Fox over 2.5 threes (+120)

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Backing Fox seems prudent and this is the best way to do it as far as I’m concerned. 

The Kings guard is coming off a 49-point game after dropping a career-high 60. 

DeMar DeRozan remains out and Domantas Sabonis is doubtful, meaning Fox’s volume should remain huge. He’s taken 65 combined shots over his last two games and 30 attempts from the line.

To guard against a potentially poor shooting night, I’m shying away from his enormous 33.5 points line to target this big value play. 

What’s to love about it? How about this: 

• Atlanta has the worst opponent 3-point percentage (39.4%) in the NBA.

• No team allows more attempts from beyond the arc (41.9/game).

• Fox has cleared this in two straight and went 4-of-6 from distance earlier this season vs. ATL.

This is a plus matchup for the 26-year-old against the NBA’s 22nd-ranked defence. 

Atlanta has particularly handled point guards poorly, surrendering the fourth-most points to the position and the most 3-pointers, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: The game total is 236.5, the highest of tonight’s eight NBA games.

Quick picks

Wagner over 32.5 points/assists (-118): The Orlando Magic forward has been going off since star Paolo Banchero went down with an oblique injury. 

Wagner’s scoring is up (30.6 PPG over his last three) and he’s been a big distributor, too. He has at least six assists in all but one game without Banchero. 

The 23-year-old has cleared this in five of his last six games. He landed on 30 the one contest he fell short, but was kept to 29 minutes in a blowout win. 

Orlando is a road favourite against the Phoenix Suns, who are down Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and on a back-to-back. 

This is a great opportunity for Wagner to beat up on Phoenix, which has allowed 120-plus points in three of its last five games.

VanVleet over 14.5 points (-130): Damian Lillard (concussion) is expected back for the Milwaukee Bucks, which is great news for opposing point guards.

Only two teams allow PGs to score more than the Bucks, who are a disappointing 4-9 and even worse with Lillard in the lineup (2-8).

Lillard makes the Bucks’ offence better, no question, but he’s not a net positive because of what he gives back on defence.

Milwaukee is -8.4 points worse per 100 possessions with Lillard on the court, according to Basketball Reference’s on/off numbers.

The Houston Rockets play for the second consecutive night but were able to limit workloads in a 36-point win.

VanVleet struggled badly to start the season but has picked things up.

• Season-high 28 points last night
• 15-plus points in three straight
• 5-2 vs. this line in last seven
• 16.3 PPG in Nov. (12.6 in Oct.)

He’s a volume 3-point shooter and threat from deep, and Atlanta is the only team that allows opponents to shoot better from long range.

Picks made at 12:37 p.m. ET on 11/18/2024.

Friday night in the NBA features 12 games and plenty of stars.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on two of the biggest names in the game: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama. To close out the slate, I’m backing Draymond Green against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 15.

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points (-121)

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The Suns were without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal on Wednesday night and lost by 23 to the Sacramento Kings. 

Phoenix remains on the road and faces another difficult task tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

OKC is without its own star in Chet Holmgren but has won both games since he suffered a hip fracture. 

• The Thunder pace the Western Conference with a 10-2 record.

• They have the best defensive rating in the NBA.

• Their +12.6 point differential also ranks No. 1.

What does this all mean? There’s blowout potential here for the 7.5-point favourites. 

And if that occurs, Thunder starters are looking at reduced minutes. 

Gilgeous-Alexander has been plenty good by traditional and advanced metrics, but his scoring is down and he’s been dreadful from long range.

He topped this line in 44% of his games last season but enters tonight with a 16% hit rate.

Three-pointers are a low-percentage shot for him and he’s taking more than ever, converting 30.9% of his shots from long range.

That’s the second-lowest mark of his career and a nice way to keep his scoring down.

Key stat: The Thunder PG is 2-10 against this line this season.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 36.5 points/rebounds (-120): The Los Angeles Lakers have gotten killed on the glass by centres this season.

Here’s a sample of how some have done: 

• Jarrett Allen: 17
• Jalen Duren: 14
• Rudy Gobert: 14
• Andre Drummond: 12
• Domantas Sabonis: 12
• Jakob Poeltl: 10-plus boards twice

Wembanyama only had six rebounds last game but he can be forgiven after scoring a career-high 50 points. 

He totalled 58 points and 30 rebounds in the two games before that.

The San Antonio Spurs phenom is on a heater and uncorking from long range, averaging a robust 3.7 makes on 9.3 attempts this month. 

Wembanyama is averaging 10.2 boards despite having more single-digit rebounding games than double digits (though one was a 20-rebound effort).

Only two teams allow more rebounds per game to centres than the Lakers, according to Betting Pros.

Green over 12.5 rebounds/assists (+107): The Golden State Warriors’ veteran forward has topped this number in four of six games this month.

His November has been significantly better than his October across the board. He was 0-5 against this line in October, averaging 8.8 rebounds/assists.

Green is averaging 12.1 in November and has been above this 12.5 line in each of the last four seasons.

This game has the third-highest projected total of the night. Plenty of scoring should help the Warriors’ second-best rebounder pile up assists.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 11/15/2024.

Tonight’s top NBA prop picks feature Trey Murphy, Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham.

The pregame narrative: Edwards and Cunningham have juicy matchups and Murphy should be active for the hobbled New Orleans Pelicans.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 13.

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Best bet: Murphy over 4.5 rebounds (-129)

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This will be Murphy’s second game of the season and it couldn’t come at a better time. 

The Pelicans, decimated by injuries, are without the following players: 

• Starting PF Zion Williamson
• Starting G CJ McCollum
• Starting G Dejounte Murray
• Starting F Herbert Jones
• Backup PG Jose Alvarado

They haven’t been competing, much less winning games with their skeleton crew. Murray, the team’s prized offseason acquisition, was injured in his first game and it has been downhill from there. 

The Pelicans have dropped five in a row, losing three of them by 15-plus points. 

There’s big blowout potential again against the Thunder (9-2), who are 13.5-point favourites as of Wednesday afternoon. 

The bottom line is that the Pelicans need bodies and Murphy needs run. He got 26 minutes on Monday, grabbing five rebounds and scoring 12 points. 

I think his points/rebounds prop is a viable play but I also worry about his shooting rust (he shot 28.6% on 14 shots in his debut) and the fact that the Thunder can really hone in on him and Brandon Ingram defensively. 

OKC ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating but 29th in rebounding rate. So I’m targeting Murphy on the glass. 

With an uptick in minutes, the 24-year-old balled out in the second half last season.

• Pre-ASG: 12.7 points, 3.7 rebounds
• Post-ASG: 17.1 points, 6.2 rebounds

He then went and topped this line in four of six playoff/play-in games, including three of four against the Thunder.

Key stat: Murphy grabbed five-plus rebounds in 19 of his final 25 regular season games last year.

Quick picks

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-143): The Minnesota Timberwolves star gets the Portland Trail Blazers for the second night in a row and third time in a week.

Here’s what he did:

• Nov. 8: 37 points & nine 3s in 30 minutes
• Nov. 12: 26 points & four 3s in 37 minutes

That first game was also on a back-to-back and he hoisted a season-high 15 attempts from deep.

His volume and efficiency (45.3% on an NBA-best 5.3 threes/game) make a 3.5 line at a reasonable price a near-auto play at the moment.

Edwards has topped this number in 10 of 11 games.

Cunningham over 14.5 assists/rebounds (-132): The Detroit Pistons guard is lighting it up and faces the Milwaukee Bucks on a back-to-back.

Milwaukee held the Toronto Raptors to 85 points last night but this is a 3-8 team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating.

And it has been torched by guards all season, which can’t all be Damian Lillard’s fault. Lillard is in concussion protocol and missed last night. His status for tonight doesn’t impact this pick for me.

Cunningham is averaging career highs in both assists (8.3) and rebounds (7.3) and has topped this line in five straight.

He’s one of the highest-usage players in the NBA and should perform well on the glass against a Bucks team that is 20th in rebounding rate.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 11/13/2024.

Tonight marks the start of the NBA Cup, the league’s in-season tournament that debuted last year.

The pregame narrative: I have three prop pick recommendations for the eight-game slate, including a best bet on Tyler Herro. Anthony Edwards and Jusuf Nurkic are also featured plays.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 12.

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Best bet: Herro over 22.5 points (-109)

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The Miami Heat offence is without Jimmy Butler, meaning there’s more opportunity for others to shine. 

And that’s exactly what Herro has been doing all season. 

The sharpshooter is averaging career highs in the following categories: 

• Points (23.2)
• Made 3s (4.0)
• FG% (50.7)
• FT attempts (3.7)

He’s also dishing out a career-best 5.0 assists and hauling in 5.2 boards. Herro has been fantastic and has the ball in his hands a ton for this Heat team. 

The guard has never been shy to unleash and the early efficiency has helped him blow past this line several times. 

His worst shooting night of the season came against these Detroit Pistons in October (19 points), but Miami also got a team-leading 23 out of Butler that game.

Key stat: Herro has scored 24-plus points in four straight.

Quick picks

Edwards over 26.5 points (-110): The Minnesota Timberwolves star just dropped a season-high 37 on the Portland Trail Blazers two games ago and gets them again tonight.

This is a big number for any player to clear but Edwards has officially morphed into an upper-echelon scorer.

He’s averaging a career-best 28.3 points, almost 2.5 more than his previous best last season.

That number places him in a tie with Luka Doncic and behind only five guys in the NBA.

He’s taking an absurd amount of 3-point shots but has remained ultra-efficient from deep, converting 5.4/game on 45.8% shooting.

Edwards is 6-4 against this line ahead of tonight’s juicy matchup versus the Blazers, who allow the most points in the NBA to shooting guards (according to Betting Pros).

Nurkic over 21.5 points/rebounds (-121): The big caveat is that Nurkic is questionable with an ankle injury that limited him to 15 minutes — and zero points — last game. 

But if he does play, I want a piece of the Phoenix Suns’ 7-footer. 

Here’s what he did in his last three games before the injury: 

• 15 points, 10 rebounds vs. Dallas
• 20 points, 18 rebounds vs. Miami 
• 15 points, 15 rebounds vs. Philadelphia

His minutes have gone up to 27.0 per game this month and he has topped this line all four times he has played at least 25 minutes. 

The Suns are down a key starter in Kevin Durant, so that number seems attainable for Nurkic tonight.

Durant’s absence could also free up extra looks down low for Nurkic against a Utah Jazz team that centres have pummeled. 

Utah allows the most points per game to the position and the fourth-most rebounds.

Picks made at 3:07 p.m. ET on 11/12/2024.