Chris Toman

Star point guards Trae Young and Kyrie Irving highlight Friday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Young has turned his season around and I like him to stay hot against the Los Angeles Lakers. Plays on Irving and Desmond Bane round out the recommendations.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 3.

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Best bet: Young over 23.5 points (-115)

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Young’s scoring is way down but he’s heating up and gets the Lakers on a back-to-back. 

The Atlanta Hawks aren’t strong defensively and will need to score plenty to keep up. Tonight’s total is 232.5, the third-highest of the nine-game slate. 

These teams blew past that number when they met in December, a 134-132 overtime win for Atlanta.

Young dropped 31 points with five triples that game. 

More recently, the star point guard is coming off back-to-back 30-point contests. He’s reached the 30-point mark four times in his last 10 games, averaging 25.7 points over that stretch.

Plenty of those buckets have come from beyond the arc, where the Lakers struggle (20th in opponent 3-point rate), providing Young an excellent opportunity to continue his big scoring output. 

Key stat: Young has scored 23-plus points in six of his last seven games.

Quick picks

Irving over 2.5 threes (-155): I’m not confident this price is getting any better throughout the day and am getting in now.

Per StatMuse:

• Irving is 7-3 against this number in 10 games this season without star teammate Luka Doncic. 

• He’s taken double-digit 3-point attempts in half of those games.

• Irving is shooting a career-best 44.1% from the perimeter. 

The NBA-best Cavaliers (29-4) pose a significant challenge for the undermanned Dallas Mavericks, but Cleveland has been carved up by point guards. 

And Dallas, without Doncic, will need Irving firing on all cylinders. 

Cleveland allows the fourth-most points and 3-pointers to PGs, according to Betting Pros. 

Bane over 21.5 points (-121): The Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard averaged 23.7 points per game last season. That number has plummeted to 16.3 this year.

But Bane cleared this number in back-to-back games with teammate Ja Morant sidelined and is coming off a season-best 31-point effort.

Bane has topped this line in three of his last six games, averaging 22.3 points and scoring no fewer than 18.

We’re working with a small sample here but Bane is moving in the right direction and is a gifted scorer who can shoot from long range.

He was due for positive regression and Morant’s absence should only help that, as Bane will need to assume a larger offensive footprint.

Tonight, he’ll go to work against a Sacramento Kings defence that’s allowing the second-most points in the NBA to shooting guards.

Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 01/03/2025.

Two guards and Bam Adebayo make up tonight’s top prop picks for Thursday’s six-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: An Austin Reaves play is the best bet and I’m also backing his former teammate D’Angelo Russell. Lastly, I like the Miami Heat’s Adebayo on a combo market.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 2.

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Best bet: Reaves over 30.5 PRA (-118)

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Reaves is on a heater and his Los Angeles Lakers get a favourable matchup to close out tonight’s NBA action. 

The fourth-year guard is having a career-best season, averaging 18.3 points per game as a full-time starter. 

Reaves averaged 22.1 PPG in eight December games, contributing 7.8 assists and 6.3 rebounds. 

Even surrounded by Anthony Davis and LeBron James, there’s clearly room for Reaves — the team’s most active 3-point shooter who’s getting 34.5 minutes a night. 

Thursday’s assignment comes against the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been torched by opposing backcourts this season. 

• Portland surrenders the third-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros. 

• The Blazers allow the fourth-most points to shooting guards.

• The team is 29th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

That all bodes well for Reaves, who’s coming off a monster 35-point, 10-assist, nine-rebound effort.

Key stat: The 26-year-old is averaging 29.0 points, 12.0 assists and 8.3 rebounds over his last three games.

Quick picks

Russell over 15.5 points (-115): There’s big blowout potential here, but that might not impact Russell as much as others, like Milwaukee Bucks stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.

Milwaukee is a 13-point home favourite as of Thursday afternoon and should dismantle the Brooklyn Nets, who are 2-8 over their last 10 and 25th in the NBA in defensive rating. 

Russell’s second game with the Nets following a trade from the Lakers will come on a back-to-back after excelling in a loss to the Toronto Raptors last night.

• 22 points in 25 minutes
• 9-of-13 from the field
• 2-of-6 from deep

Russell was wildly inconsistent with the Lakers, seeing his role reduced in what turned into a poor fit.

But he’s always been a scorer and threat from the outside, averaging at least 15.5 points a season in every year outside of his rookie campaign.

Russell should have more rope and opportunity in Brooklyn, and volume alone will have him flirt with this number most nights. 

The veteran should have the ball in his hands a lot and tonight he’ll do it against a Bucks team that has struggled to defend guards. 

Adebayo over 29.5 points/rebounds (-120): The Heat face the Indiana Pacers and Adebayo has punished them twice already this season.

• Nov. 15: 30 points, 11 boards
• Nov. 17: 28 points, 8 boards

Adebayo’s scoring has been inconsistent, as he’s averaging his lowest output (16.4/game) since the 2019-20 season.

But he’s been a strong rebounder (9.9/game) and centres have had their way on the glass with the undersized Pacers.

Indiana allows the fifth-most boards to the position and is 24th in points allowed in the paint.

The Heat are on a back-to-back but this is a good matchup for the three-time all-star.

Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 01/02/2025.

Monday’s NBA schedule features seven games and I have three prop picks for the slate.

The pregame narrative: My favourite bet is a play on Canadian Jamal Murray, while wagers on Josh Giddey and Karl-Anthony Towns round out the recommendations.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 30.

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Best bet: Murray over 22.5 points (-125)

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Russell Westbrook has started the last two games for the Denver Nuggets and it appears he’ll remain in the starting five while Aaron Gordon is sidelined. 

That shifts Murray into even more of a scoring role and he’s responded emphatically in the last two games. 

• Murray is coming off a season-high 34-point contest.

• He had 27 points in the game before that.

• In three games alongside Westbrook in the starting unit, Murray is averaging 29.7 points and shooting above 50% from the perimeter.

The small sample is encouraging and will hopefully unlock more out of Murray, whose numbers are down this season. 

In addition to the lineup bump, Murray has a favourable matchup on Monday against the Utah Jazz. 

Utah is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, surrendering just shy of 120 points per game. 

The team has been punished by guards, allowing the fourth-most points to point guards and the third-most to shooting guards (per Betting Pros). 

Murray dropped 22 on 10-of-18 shooting versus the Jazz last month, and tonight’s game has the highest total of the evening (240 points).

Key stat: December has been Murray’s highest-scoring month and he’s topped this line in five of his last six games.

Quick picks

Giddey over 13.5 assists/rebounds (-122): Giddey returned from a near-two-week absence on Saturday, recording a massive triple-double against the Milwaukee Bucks in 29 minutes.

The first-year Chicago Bull had season-highs of 23 points and 15 rebounds while adding 10 assists. 

It brought his assist/rebound average for the month up to 17.0 per game. 

He’s 5-2 versus this line in December and had 16 assists/rebounds when he faced the Charlotte Hornets on Dec. 13. 

Giddey has always been a solid rebounder (7.2/game for his career) and he enters the night averaging a career-best 7.0 assists per game.

Towns over 24.5 points (-124): The New York Knicks get the Washington Wizards for the second time in three nights.

Jalen Brunson stole the show with a 55-point performance on Saturday. But Towns did damage, too, dropping a 30-piece with 14 rebounds.

It was another example of the Wizards getting shredded by a centre (they allow the most PPG to the position) and Towns taking advantage of a plus matchup.

Here’s how Towns has done versus the six teams that allow the most points to centres:

• Vs. Wizards: 30 pts, 24 pts
• Vs. Suns: 34 pts
• Vs. Jazz: 16 pts
• Vs. Bulls: 46 pts
• Vs. Hawks: 34 pts, 19 pts
• Vs. Raptors: 31 pts, 24 pts

That works out to an average of 28.6 points, a nice bump from his season average (24.5).

Brunson is questionable as of Monday’s early afternoon NBA injury report. Towns’ outlook would be even better if his all-star teammate were unavailable.

Picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET on 12/30/2024.

Friday features a light, three-game slate but I’m still targeting a trio of players on the quiet NBA night.

The pregame narrative: I expect Darius Garland to eat against the Milwaukee Bucks and am backing Miami Heat teammates Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo in their matchup versus the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 20.

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Best bet: Garland over 25.5 points/assists (-107)

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Milwaukee star Damian Lillard is out but I still think a competitive game is in play here, which should keep Garland on the court. 

The NBA Cup-winning Bucks are playing really good basketball, going 8-2 in their last 10. Cleveland, meanwhile, has an NBA-best 23-4 record. 

These teams played twice in three nights in November and Cleveland won by a point and followed it with a two-point win.

Since then, the Bucks are 14-5. They’ve only lost two of those games by more than six points.

Garland was productive in both outings versus Milwaukee, putting up an 11/10 double-double and then blowing past this line with a 39-point, eight-assist effort. 

Point guards have shredded Milwaukee this season and Garland has already proven capable of that, so I’m happy to back him at this number. 

He’s averaging 26.8 points/assists through 26 games and putting up career-best shooting splits (48/41/93). 

With fresh legs (Cleveland hasn’t played since Monday), look for Garland to torch the Bucks tonight.

Key stat: Milwaukee allows the most points per game to point guards, per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Herro over 21.5 points (-120): The Thunder play great defence and shut down the guard positions, but I’ll jump on this line nearly any time I see it.

Herro is having the best season of his career and is the Heat’s top scorer.

• Herro is averaging 24.1 PPG
• Cleared this line in 7 of last 9
• Scored 20+ points in 66% of games

The sharpshooter lives around this number on a nightly basis and has been extra efficient (47.6% from the field, 41.3% from deep). 

His 3-point volume can help offset poor shooting nights, too.

Only three players attempt more threes than Herro (10.1) and only two (LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards) make more than his 4.2 per game.

Adebayo over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-118): The Heat centre has been wildly disappointing from a scoring perspective, averaging 16.2 points on a career-low 44.3% rate from the field.

But he’s been productive on the glass and as a distributor, bringing in averages of 10.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists into tonight’s matchup. Both are just off his career-best marks.

Adebayo is staring down a plus matchup in that regard, as the Thunder rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most assists per game to centres.

The three-time all-star has cleared this line in seven of his last nine contests and is averaging 12.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists in seven December games.

Picks made at 11:42 a.m. ET on 12/20/2024.

The NBA Cup final takes place Tuesday night in Las Vegas and I’m backing two guards on the prop market for the big game.

The pregame narrative: I expect Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go off and also like Gary Trent Jr. of the Milwaukee Bucks to contribute from the perimeter.

Check out my Thunder vs. Bucks prop picks for the NBA Cup championship game on Dec. 17.

Thunder vs. Bucks prop picks

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Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-124)

This is a huge number but I’ll bite.

Not only is this a plus matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander, but the OKC star enters on fire.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been torched by point guards all season and SGA is the best-scoring PG in the NBA.

And he’s been dialling it up of late for the 20-5 Thunder, who have the best record in the Western Conference.

• SGA is 9-6 vs. this line over his last 15 games.

• He’s dropped 35-plus points five times over that stretch.

• December represents his highest-scoring month of the season.

• He’s averaging 30-plus PPG for the third straight year.

Gilgeous-Alexander generally lives around this number, scoring 30-plus points in 12 of 21 games since the start of November.

He’s shooting more from long range than ever before and is an elite free throw shooter who gets to the line at the third-highest rate in the NBA (converting at an 86.4% clip).

Even in a game with a relatively low total (216), Gilgeous-Alexander should be able to eat the same way recent PGs have versus Milwaukee.

The Bucks have allowed opposing point guards to drop more than 30 points in each of their last three games (Trae Young, Jalen Suggs, Dennis Schroder).

Key stat: No team in the NBA allows point guards to score more than the Bucks, per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Trent over 1.5 threes (-113): Trent isn’t scoring much and faces a tough assignment tonight.

The Thunder are No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating and are holding opponents to the lowest 3-point shooting percentage.

But asking for a pair of threes, a number he’s routinely hit, isn’t much.

Trent is 15-8 versus this line and averaged at least 2.5 triples per game in each of the last four seasons. Nearly 70% of the shots he’s taking from the field are from beyond the arc.

He’s in a different situation with Milwaukee now and is playing in a reduced role, but remains a big threat from deep and this is a great price to get him at.

Trent is shooting 38.8% from distance, clearing this line in five of six games in December.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 12/17/2024.