Chris Toman

Tonight’s seven-game NBA slate features Jayson Tatum, Paul George and Nikola Vucevic as compelling prop targets.

The pregame narrative: Vucevic has a smash spot, Tatum’s matchup looks like a plus, and the struggling George is a fade for me.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 10.

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Best bet: Vucevic over 30.5 points/rebounds (-117)

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Vucevic has double-doubled in both meetings versus the Washington Wizards this season (12 and 14; 19 and 12).

The Chicago Bulls centre enters tonight’s game against the Wizards with these averages: 

• 20.2 pts (17/36 vs. 19.5 line)
• 10.1 rebs (12/36 vs. 11.5 line) 
• 30.3 pts/rebs (17/36 vs. 30.5 line)

He also has multiple games landing on exactly 30 points/rebounds. 

In terms of price, the rebound prop is most enticing because it’s a slight plus-money offer (+102). 

But that’s for a reason, as Vucevic has only collected 12-plus boards in a third of his games — although he’s done it twice versus Washington. 

While he hasn’t topped a 19.5-point total against them, this still looks like a 20/10 game for him with room for upside.

Getting to 20/10 simply means hitting his season averages. But Washington is a plus matchup even if Vucevic didn’t exactly exploit it offensively in his previous two meetings. 

The Wizards allow the most points per game to centres, per Betting Pros, and are inside the top 10 for most rebounds allowed to the position. 

These are the bottom two teams in the NBA in opponent scoring, and Washington gets throttled in the paint, where Vucevic thrives. 

Going the combo route adds some cover in the event he explodes offensively or dominates the glass. 

But it’s entirely possible he does both and blows past this line. 

Key stat: Tonight’s projected total of 243 points is easily the highest of the night.

Quick picks

George under 21.5 points (-115): In terms of backcourt positions, the New Orleans Pelicans have struggled more with point guards and are tasked with stopping a good one tonight in Tyrese Maxey. 

Maxey will be the Philadelphia 76ers’ offensive catalyst and should continue to get huge volume with star Joel Embiid sidelined. 

Over the past two games without Embiid, Maxey has taken a combined 52 shots (including 28 threes). 

As for George, the scoring simply hasn’t been there this season — with or without Embiid. 

He scores more with the former MVP out, but is only 3-8 against this line in those 11 games (per StatMuse). 

Overall, George has cleared this line four times in 24 games in what has been a disappointing debut season with the Sixers.

Tatum over 26.5 points (-110): This is a big number for anyone, but it’s still below Tatum’s season average (28.1 PPG).

The Boston Celtics superstar has scored 30-plus points 16 times, topping this line in 20 of 34 contests overall. That’s good for a 58.8% success rate.

While imperfect, that alone has the odds working in our favour. The matchup is the cherry on top.

The Sacramento Kings allow the fourth-most points to power forwards and the most 3-pointers.

They’ve been crushed beyond the arc this season (27th in opponent 3-point percentage), and no team attempts more 3s than Boston.

Tatum should score and boost his output with work from beyond the arc.

The 26-year-old is averaging career highs in made 3s (3.8) and attempts (10.5).

Picks made at 12:19 p.m. ET on 01/10/2025.

Anthony Edwards and Bam Adebayo highlight Thursday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I expect both to do damage on the offensive end and also have a play on Dallas Mavericks guard Spencer Dinwiddie.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 9.

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Best bet: Adebayo over 17.5 points (-121)

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I’ve been playing Adebayo props lately, and I see no reason to stop in a juicy matchup against the Utah Jazz. 

The Jazz struggle to defend the paint, where Adebayo provides plenty of scoring, and are overall a dreadful defensive team:

• 30th in defensive rating
• 26th in points allowed/game
• 4th-most PPG allowed to centres

Adebayo has struggled offensively (16.2 PPG, his lowest total since 2019-20) but this line is light for me.

Miami’s big man has scored more lately, perhaps a result of positive regression and Jimmy Butler being sidelined.

Adebayo has cleared this line in four of his last five games. 

Interestingly, the one time he didn’t came against Utah — a complete clunker that was his worst game of the season (four points, 0-of-6 from the field).

No signs point to a repeat of that performance for a player who should be motivated tonight.

Key stat: Adebayo is 8-7 against this line since Dec. 1.

Quick picks

Dinwiddie over 20.5 points/assists (-125): Dinwiddie has played 15 games without superstar Luka Doncic this season.

• He’s gotten 25+ minutes in 10 of those games, going 7-3 against this line (per StatMuse). 

• Dinwiddie has logged 30+ minutes in four of his last six games (all without Doncic).

• One of those games was Dec. 28 against the Portland Trail Blazers, who get hammered by guards. Dinwiddie didn’t disappoint, dropping 17 points with four assists.

• In the Dallas Mavericks’ following game, he scored a season-high 30 and he’s coming off a 19-point effort. 

Without Doncic (and Kyrie Irving), there’s scoring upside here. And a closer matchup that keeps Dinwiddie on the court is certainly a more plausible outcome sans the two stars. 

Portland, on a back-to-back, is one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending guards.

The Blazers allow the most points to PGs and third-most to SGs, per Betting Pros.

Edwards is cooking

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-108): Edwards gets an Orlando Magic team that defends wings exceptionally well.

Orlando holds opponents to the fewest 3-pointers made and attempted per game in the NBA. And they have the No. 1 defensive rating in the Eastern Conference. 

I can’t ignore Edwards’ recent form, though. 

The Minnesota star recently aired out some frustrations to the media about having to distribute more amid a scoring slump for the underperforming Timberwolves.

He’s responded with a vengeance since then. 

• Jan. 4 vs. Pistons: Edwards scored a career-high 53 points on 31 attempts. Nearly half of those shots were 3-pointers (15) and he drilled 10 of them. 

• Jan. 6 vs. Clippers: Edwards followed with a 37-point performance on 14-of-29 shooting, going 6-of-13 from long range.

• Jan. 7 vs. Pelicans: He scored 32 in his most recent game, hitting 7-of-11 threes. 

Edwards had only attempted double-digit threes twice in 15 games before this outburst. 

It appears he’s back to the same ultra-aggressive mentality he had earlier in the season when he routinely chucked up 10-plus triples a game. Sign me up at this price for a 3.5 line any day.

Edwards is averaging 4.3 triples/game, third in the NBA.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 01/09/2025.

Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham is featured in Wednesday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Cunningham has been crushing it from long range and I like him to stay hot tonight. Additionally, my best bet is on Brook Lopez for tonight’s eight-game NBA slate.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 8.

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Editor’s note: Kawhi Leonard was ruled out after this story was published.

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Best bet: Lopez over 14.5 points/rebounds (-130)

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This is a light line for a starter who’s getting over 30 minutes a night.

Of course, there’s reason for that. Lopez plays alongside two high-usage scorers with huge volume: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. 

That eats into his scoring upside but Lopez’s production has significantly improved of late. 

Lopez has cashed this eight times in his last 10 games. It’s been powered by his scoring (14.7 points and 2.1 triples).

The Spurs surrender the fifth-most points to centres, per Betting Pros, making this an even more enticing play.

So if you’re looking for a better price, you could go Lopez over 10.5 points (-104).

But I think the combo market has a greater chance of hitting and the -130 price is more than playable. 

Key stat: Lopez is averaging 19.1 points/rebounds over his last 10.

Quick picks

Cunningham over 2.5 threes (-129): The Pistons guard came well short of his prop lines when he faced the Brooklyn Nets earlier this season but I expect him to feast tonight. 

The Nets are 25th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Cunningham has improved efficiency and volume this season and he’s more dangerous from the perimeter. 

The Pistons are also down an offensive weapon in guard Jaden Ivey and Cunningham has exploded in consecutive games without him. 

• Cunningham has scored 32 and 40 points, respectively, in his last two games.

• He nailed four triples in each outing and has reached that mark four times in his last six contests.

• The 23-year-old topped this line 11 times in his last 15. 

Leonard over 1.5 threes (+117): This is an excellent number to back Leonard in his third game of the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers’ oft-injured star has topped this in both games, taking five attempts from deep in each contest despite limited minutes.

He played 21 minutes last game following 19 in his season opener, taking a healthy 11 shots from the field in both outings.

Leonard has averaged at least 1.9 triples per game on good percentages in each of the last five seasons coming into this year.

He gets the Denver Nuggets on a back-to-back tonight.

Denver’s defence has struggled coming into the evening, ranking 23rd in defensive rating over its last 10 games and in the bottom half of opponent 3-pointers allowed.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 01/08/2025.

LaMelo Ball is featured as the best bet for Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Ball is cooking and I like him to stay hot versus the Phoenix Suns. I also have plays on centres Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 7.

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Best bet: Ball over 12.5 reb/ast (+100)

The Charlotte Hornets star gets a Phoenix Suns team that doesn’t rebound the ball well on a back-to-back.

Ball is a difficult player to contain on the best of nights, let alone on a rest disadvantage.

He has big scoring upside in this game, but I also like him to pile up assists and rebounds and think there’s better value playing him on this market.

He’s averaging this exact line on the season and has put up some monster numbers of late.

Ball fell short in his last contest and landed on 12 the game before that, but he cleared this in seven straight ahead of that.

For the season, he’s 14-9 against this number.

Key stat: Ball has averaged 13-plus rebounds/assists in each of the last three seasons.

Quick picks

Gobert over 21.5 points/rebounds (-124): Gobert’s production is sporadic and he’s not a heavy usage player on the offensive end. So there’s some risk here.

He’s turned in clunkers in three of his last five games, falling well short of this line. But he’s smashed it in the other two and has an appealing opponent tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans allow the most rebounds per game to centres, per Betting Pros, and surrender the sixth-most points to the position.

And one of the things Gobert does particularly well is rebound the ball.

He’s averaging 10.5 per game, the 10th consecutive season he’s been in double figures. The 7-foot-1 veteran is coming off an 18-rebound performance and had 15 four games before that.

On top of the rebounding upside, Gobert operates in high-scoring areas in the paint and is efficient. He’s contributing 10.1 points per game on 61.8% shooting from the field.

So all we’re asking is for him to just clear his season-long average in a plus matchup.

Adebayo over 15.5 points (-132): The Miami Heat are coming off a gruelling double overtime loss but the show must go on.

This is a tough spot for the team, though I like Adebayo to clear this modest number.

His scoring is way down this season (16.1/game) but Jimmy Butler is no longer someone he needs to share the ball with on offence, which should only help his scoring outlook for the rest of the season.

Adebayo averaged 19-plus points in three straight seasons coming into this year.

He has two ugly four-point games in his last 10, but has topped this line seven times over that stretch.

Getting this price on this line is not something you’ll see often for the all-star centre.

Picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET on 01/07/2025.

Stars Tyler Herro, Tyrese Haliburton and Anthony Edwards are featured in Monday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I like Herro and Haliburton to produce big offensive nights and am fading Edwards against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 6.

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Best bet: Herro over 3.5 threes (-117)

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This looks like a nice spot for Herro to do damage. 

Jimmy Butler is out of the equation and the Heat face a Sacramento Kings team that gets torched on the perimeter and is playing for the second consecutive night.

Herro already carved up the Kings once this season, dropping 27 points and five triples when he saw them in November. 

The 24-year-old, averaging a career-high 23.8 points per game, enters with personal-best numbers from beyond the arc. 

• 3.8 threes/game
• 9.5 attempts/game
• 40.3% shooting

Herro has cleared this line in just about half of his games and drilled at least three triples in all but nine of 33 contests. 

He has both efficiency and volume working on his side against the Kings.

Key stat: Sacramento ranks 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Quick picks

Haliburton over 27.5 points/assists (-108): The Indiana Pacers point guard has cleared this line in five of his last seven contests. 

He has blown past it in three of those games, including each of his last two. 

Haliburton dropped 33 and 15 against the Heat on Jan. 2 and responded with a 27-point, eight-assist outing versus the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night. 

The Brooklyn Nets are a bottom-of-the-barrel defensive unit and the Pacers aren’t much better. 

Haliburton is just shy of this line for the season (27.1 pts/ast) but is coming off two straight years in which he averaged at least 20 points and 10 assists. 

This line is more than manageable for him in a game where the Pacers should score plenty. 

Brooklyn does not guard the 3-point line well and Haliburton can burn teams from deep. 

He’s averaging career highs in made threes and attempts, burying a combined 11 in his last two games.

Edwards under 25.5 points (-120): After torching the league for a month-plus, Edwards’ scoring dipped considerably in December. 

He scored 20.4 points per game, bringing his season-long average down by more than two points. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves star recently discussed having to distribute more as a result of double teams and then went out and dropped a career-high 53 points on Saturday. 

But I’m not expecting another huge outburst tonight.

• Minnesota lost Edwards’ 53-point game by 14.

• The Clippers are fourth in the NBA in defensive rating.

• Edwards has played the Clippers twice this season, scoring 16 and 21 points.

• He’s 5-10 against this number in his last 15 games.

Picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 01/06/2025.