Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.
The 22-year-old is coming off his two best-scoring games of the season and I’m all in for him to stay hot on what’s been an achievable line this month.
Giddey scored 24 points in his last game following a season-best 27-point performance.
His efficiency and volume have spiked since Zach LaVine was shipped out of town and Giddey has been strong from long range.
Take a look at what the Chicago Bulls guard has done this month:
48.1 FG% on 16.3 attempts
3+ 3s in 5/8 games
48.8% from deep
Giddey’s improved 3-point stroke isn’t sustainable (he’s a 32.2% shooter from long range) but he’s been firing it up and should contribute from the perimeter again tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philadelphia is 26th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Key stat: Giddey is 6-2 against this line in February.
Quick picks
Reid over 26.5 points/rebounds (-122): Reid is on a heater and has taken it to the Oklahoma City Thunder twice this month.
The 25-year-old double-doubled against the Thunder last night and on Thursday, scoring 22 and 27 points, respectively, in the two outings.
In December, Reid scored 19 versus OKC. He’s averaged 11.0 rebounds in those three games.
Frontcourt injuries have opened up more playing time for Reid, who’s averaging 34.9 minutes in February and taking five more shots per game than his season average.
Reid is averaging 20.1 pts in Feb.
Last 4 games: 22.1 pts, 11.5 reb.
Topped this line in 7/10 Feb. games
DeRozan over 22.5 points (+104): In eight games since star point guard De’Aaron Fox was traded to the San Antonio Spurs, DeRozan’s scoring has unsurprisingly soared.
The veteran wing has morphed into the Kings’ top option on offence, averaging 25.6 points over those eight games.
LaVine is averaging 20.3 points with his new team and Domantas Sabonis’ scoring has gone down without Fox.
Sacramento’s starting unit is all capable of scoring in double figures but DeRozan is the most consistent and arguably has the highest ceiling.
DeRozan has three 30-plus scoring games in his last 15, in addition to a 42-point outburst.
The Kings have the rest advantage against the Charlotte Hornets, who have been crushed by double digits in their last two games and are coming off a 53-point loss.
For the second consecutive night, the Sacramento Kings’ stat-stuffing centre gets the New Orleans Pelicans.
Last night’s result was a 16-point, 15-rebound performance. Four days before that, he went off on them for 27 and 16.
Back in December, he dominated New Orleans with a 32-and-20 effort.
Sabonis is averaging 34.2 points/rebounds, the best mark of his career.
The Pelicans have been horrific guarding centres. Per Betting Pros, they surrender the most rebounds per game to the position and the fifth-most points.
Sabonis is 2-5 against this line in February, but that’s allowing us to buy in tonight at a discount.
I expect the all-star snub to make the most of this plus matchup versus the Pelicans, who have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Key stat: Sabonis leads the NBA in paint touches and the Pelicans allow the second-most points/game in the paint (per Team Rankings).
Quick picks
Murphy over 22.5 points (-121): Sticking with the Pelicans/Kings matchup, I’m riding New Orleans’ breakout star.
I also view this as a good buy-low spot.
Murphy is 0-3 versus this line in three matchups against the Kings, but I’m happy to overlook that. Here’s why:
Murphy has averaged 25-plus points in back-to-back months.
Sacramento has not been great at defending wings, ranking bottom 10 in points allowed to both shooting guards and small forwards.
The 24-year-old is 9-6 against this line over his last 15 games.
Murphy is top 20 in the NBA in PPG and top 10 in 3-pointers made since Jan. 1.
Murphy’s long-range stroke can hurt any team and the Kings are 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Count on big production from the bigs
Adebayo over 17.5 points (-134): I played this last night at a 16.5 line and see no reason not to turn back to it.
Adebayo is scoring at his best clip of the season, averaging 23.0 points in six February games.
He has cleared this line in all of those contests and eight straight overall.
Jimmy Butler is out of the equation, leading to an uptick in volume for the Miami Heat centre. Adebayo is averaging 17.3 field goal attempts in February compared to 12.3 in January.
The Dallas Mavericks have been vulnerable against centres and are down multiple bigs for tonight’s contest. Adebayo dropped 20 on them in November.
Kessler to double-double (+112): Kessler isn’t the biggest name on the Utah Jazz but he might be the most productive.
Here’s why I like him tonight:
12 double-doubles in last 20 games
22 double-doubles in 42 games
Feb. averages: 13.3 pts, 14.3 reb
He’s shooting 71.8% from the field thanks to his work in the high-percentage paint area.
On a per-game level in the paint, Kessler is top five in the NBA in touches and field goals made.
The 7-footer is seventh in the NBA in rebounding and is up to nearly 35 minutes a night in February.
Wednesday is a monster slate in the NBA with all 30 teams in action.
The pregame narrative: There are several prop bets I like, none more so than Bam Adebayo to clear his points line. I also have plays on fellow big men Nikola Jokic and Jarrett Allen, as well as guard Coby White.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best record in the NBA and are the No. 1 defence.
They’re on a six-game winning streak, blowing each team out by double digits over that stretch.
They guard multiple positions well, including centres, which OKC holds to the third-lowest scoring average per game (according to Betting Pros).
That might signal a fade on Adebayo and other Miami Heat players, but I think we can take advantage of a light line.
Through five February games, this is by far Adebayo’s best-scoring month.
He’s played 50 games, exactly half of those without former disgruntled teammate Jimmy Butler. Adebayo’s per-game scoring is up two points without Butler.
His February usage rate is up more than 3% compared to any month this season.
Key stat: Adebayo has cleared this number in seven straight games.
NBA prop picks: Back the bigs
Jokic over 29.5 points (-108): One big concern here is blowout potential.
The Denver Nuggets played the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, winning by 29. But that didn’t stop Jokic from producing his seventh 40-plus point game of the season.
He has smoked the Blazers in recent years, including a 34-point effort earlier this season.
Jokic has deployed his improved three-point stroke versus Portland, which ranks 20th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Jokic has drilled a combined six triples on 13 attempts in the two meetings this season. That type of volume would go a long way tonight.
The three-time MVP is averaging 31.2 points in February.
Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-130): The Cleveland Cavaliers big man gets a tasty matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who are on a back-to-back.
Toronto’s starting centre and best rebounder Jakob Poeltl missed his fourth straight game Tuesday and appears to be out again tonight.
Joel Embiid took advantage of the assignment, scoring 27 points with 12 rebounds.
Allen isn’t the scorer Embiid is but he’s a better rebounder and torched Toronto twice already this season.
Jan. 9: 18 points, 15 rebounds
Nov. 24: 23 points, 13 rebounds
Allen is averaging 25.6 points/rebounds this month ahead of tonight’s game against the Raptors, who allow the eighth-most boards to centres.
Quick pick
White over 20.5 points (-120): Tuesday was a forgettable night for the Chicago Bulls.
They got dismantled by the Detroit Pistons, losing by 40 after scoring 29 points in the first half. Chicago gets the Pistons again and a better effort feels all but guaranteed.
White was among the duds (five points, 2-of-13 from the field). But he went into last night hot and had previously lit up Detroit this season.
I expect a bounce-back outing.
White is a big threat from long range, where the Pistons struggle (No. 28 in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage).
He’s 4-3 against this line since Zach LaVine played his last game for Chicago with one 20-point game.
White scored 22 vs. the Pistons at the start of the month and 25 in November.
Wednesday is a monster slate in the NBA with all 30 teams in action.
The pregame narrative: There are several prop bets I like, none more so than Bam Adebayo to clear his points line. I also have plays on fellow big men Nikola Jokic and Jarrett Allen, as well as guard Coby White.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best record in the NBA and are the No. 1 defence.
They’re on a six-game winning streak, blowing each team out by double digits over that stretch.
They guard multiple positions well, including centres, which OKC holds to the third-lowest scoring average per game (according to Betting Pros).
That might signal a fade on Adebayo and other Miami Heat players, but I think we can take advantage of a light line.
Through five February games, this is by far Adebayo’s best-scoring month.
He’s played 50 games, exactly half of those without former disgruntled teammate Jimmy Butler. Adebayo’s per-game scoring is up two points without Butler.
His February usage rate is up more than 3% compared to any month this season.
Key stat: Adebayo has cleared this number in eight straight and scored 17 versus OKC in December.
NBA prop picks: Back the bigs
Jokic over 28.5 points (-118): One big concern here is blowout potential.
The Denver Nuggets played the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, winning by 29. But that didn’t stop Jokic from producing his seventh 40-plus point game of the season.
He has smoked the Blazers in recent years, including a 34-point effort earlier this season.
Jokic has deployed his improved three-point stroke versus Portland, which ranks 20th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Jokic has drilled a combined six triples on 13 attempts in the two meetings this season. That type of volume would go a long way tonight.
The three-time MVP is averaging 31.2 points in February.
Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-108): The Cleveland Cavaliers big man gets a tasty matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who are on a back-to-back.
Toronto’s starting centre and best rebounder Jakob Poeltl missed his fourth straight game Tuesday and appears to be out again tonight.
Joel Embiid took advantage of the assignment, scoring 27 points with 12 rebounds.
Allen isn’t the scorer Embiid is but he’s a better rebounder and torched Toronto twice already this season.
Jan. 9: 18 points, 15 rebounds
Nov. 24: 23 points, 13 rebounds
Allen is averaging 25.6 points/rebounds this month ahead of tonight’s game against the Raptors, who allow the eighth-most boards to centres.
Quick pick
White to score 20+ points (-136): Tuesday was a forgettable night for the Chicago Bulls.
They got dismantled by the Detroit Pistons, losing by 40 after scoring 29 points in the first half. Chicago gets the Pistons again and a better effort feels all but guaranteed.
White was among the duds (five points, 2-of-13 from the field). But he went into last night hot and had previously lit up Detroit this season.
I expect a bounce-back outing.
White is a big threat from long range, where the Pistons struggle (No. 28 in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage).
He’s 5-2 against this line since Zach LaVine played his last game for Chicago.
White scored 22 vs. the Pistons at the start of the month and 25 in November.
Two all-star centres and a second-year forward make up today’s top prop pick recommendations.
The pregame narrative: Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns highlight Tuesday’s plays, which also feature Ausar Thompson. I like all three of them to be active on the glass.
Check out how I’m backing them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 11.
The Toronto Raptors are without their best rebounder tonight, starting centre Jakob Poeltl.
Their third-best rebounder, RJ Barrett, is also out, leaving Scottie Barnes as the only player on the team averaging more than 5.0 boards per game.
Embiid is questionable but should have his way on the glass if he plays.
The oft-injured Philadelphia 76ers star has not been the rebounding beast he has been in previous seasons, averaging 8.3 per game. But he’s had his minutes managed and played sporadically.
He’s a double-digit rebounding threat any time he’s on the court and has corralled 10-plus rebounds in four of his last five games.
Key stat: Toronto gives up the eighth-most rebounds to the centre position, per Betting Pros.
Quick picks
Towns over 38.5 points/rebounds (-112): Towns is averaging 37.5 points/rebounds on the season (a career-best mark) but this is a big number for any player.
That said, he’s cleared it once already this season against the Indiana Pacers, who may be down starting centre Myles Turner (questionable, neck).
Turner’s absence would leave a small Pacers lineup even more undersized, but Towns has performed in two matchups versus Indiana with Turner in the lineup.
Towns went off for 30 points and nine rebounds against Indiana in November and had a 21 and 15 game when the teams met in October.
The New York Knicks’ 7-footer is two games removed from a 27/20 effort and is second in the NBA in rebounds per game.
Indiana allows the fourth-most boards to centres.
Thompson over 16.5 points/rebounds (-120): Thompson began his nice stretch of play this month against the Chicago Bulls, whom the second-year forward will see again tonight.
The Detroit Pistons’ 22-year-old has scored in double figures in five consecutive games, the longest such stretch of his young career. He’s averaging 13.4 points in February, coinciding with an uptick in minutes.
Chicago has not defended forwards well this season and, in general, struggles on the defensive end. The Bulls allow the second-most points per game in the NBA.
On top of that, Thompson is averaging 7.0 rebounds in February, hauling in eight in three straight.
He had seven boards versus the Bulls on Feb. 2 and is a perfect 5-0 against this line this month.
The Toronto Raptors are without their best rebounder tonight, starting centre Jakob Poeltl.
Their third-best rebounder, RJ Barrett, is also out, leaving Scottie Barnes as the only player on the team averaging more than 5.0 boards per game.
Embiid is questionable but should have his way on the glass if he plays.
The oft-injured Philadelphia 76ers star has not been the rebounding beast he has been in previous seasons, averaging 8.3 per game. But he’s had his minutes managed and played sporadically.
He’s a double-digit rebounding threat any time he’s on the court and has corralled 10-plus rebounds in four of his last five games.
Key stat: Toronto gives up the eighth-most rebounds to the centre position, per Betting Pros.
Quick picks
Towns over 37.5 points/rebounds (-117): Towns is averaging 37.5 points/rebounds on the season (a career-best mark) but this is a big number for any player.
That said, he’s cleared it once already this season against the Indiana Pacers, who may be down starting centre Myles Turner (questionable, neck).
Turner’s absence would leave a small Pacers lineup even more undersized, but Towns has performed in two matchups versus Indiana with Turner in the lineup.
Towns went off for 30 points and nine rebounds against Indiana in November and had a 21 and 15 game when the teams met in October.
The New York Knicks’ 7-footer is two games removed from a 27/20 effort and is second in the NBA in rebounds per game.
Indiana allows the fourth-most boards to centres.
Thompson over 16.5 points/rebounds (-129): Thompson began his nice stretch of play this month against the Chicago Bulls, whom the second-year forward will see again tonight.
The Detroit Pistons’ 22-year-old has scored in double figures in five consecutive games, the longest such stretch of his young career. He’s averaging 13.4 points in February, coinciding with an uptick in minutes.
Chicago has not defended forwards well this season and, in general, struggles on the defensive end. The Bulls allow the second-most points per game in the NBA.
On top of that, Thompson is averaging 7.0 rebounds in February, hauling in eight in three straight.
He had seven boards versus the Bulls on Feb. 2 and is a perfect 5-0 against this line this month.
Monday’s double-digit NBA slate features four prop bet recommendations.
The pregame narrative: I have picks on Chris Paul, Christian Braun and a pair of Dallas Mavericks (Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington) who should feast in a good matchup with star Anthony Davis sidelined.
Paul has played three games with new San Antonio Spurs star De’Aaron Fox, clearing this number twice.
Fox gives the pass-first point guard another strong scoring option alongside Victor Wembanyama and that duo should feast against the Washington Wizards tonight.
Washington allows an NBA-high 121.6 PPG.
Only 2 teams allow more assists/game to PGs.
Paul had 11 assists vs. the Wizards in Nov.
The Spurs scored 139 points in that prior meeting against Washington. That’s a lot to ask for again but tonight’s total of 237 points is the second-highest of the 10-game slate.
There should be plenty of scoring, giving Paul a great opportunity to pile up dimes against Washington, which gets torched both in the paint and the perimeter.
Key stat: Paul is 9-1 against the line over his last 10 games.
Quick picks
Braun over 5.5 rebounds (-130): The 23-year-old is having a solid season as he’s transitioned into a starting role with the Denver Nuggets.
Braun is scoring 14.7 points per game with excellent efficiency and he’s been strong on the glass lately.
He’s cleared this number in all five games this month (averaging 8.2 boards) and landed on exactly five in four straight before that.
Braun is seeing plenty of run, averaging 36.4 minutes per game in February. Russell Westbrook remains out and Michael Porter Jr. (hamstring) is questionable.
The minutes should be there again against a Portland Trail Blazers team that is bottom 10 in the NBA in rebounding rate.
Back Mavericks duo
Irving over 2.5 threes (-150): With Davis out, Irving goes back to assuming the alpha role in Dallas.
Prior to Davis’ arrival, Irving cleared this mark in 14 of 21 games without Luka Doncic this season, according to StatMuse.
He faces a Sacramento Kings team that allows opponents to shoot 37.7% from deep, the second-worst mark in the NBA.
Irving is drilling threes at a 40.7% clip this season, averaging 2.9 per game.
He’s gotten 40-plus minutes in three straight contests and is a good bet to get up at least 20 shots tonight. A healthy number of those should come from long-range.
Washington over 26.5 points/rebounds (-112): Washington was quiet over 16 minutes in Davis’ Mavericks debut before leaving with a right ankle sprain.
The injury has him questionable tonight and it could certainly limit him if he plays. But I’m expecting strong production if he’s a go.
Washington had a big January, his best month of the season. He averaged 17.1 points and 9.7 rebounds.
The 26-year-old topped this line in five of six games ahead of Davis’ debut:
Jan. 31 vs. DET: 22 pts, 13 reb
Jan. 29 vs NO: 25, 14 reb
Jan. 27 vs. WSH: 19 pts, 9 reb
Jan. 25 vs. BOS: 17 pts, 8 reb
Jan. 23 vs. OKC: 22 pts, 19 reb
Jan. 22 vs. MIN: 30 pts, 7 reb
Washington is averaging a career-high 8.2 rebounds per contest and has some three-point upside, converting 37.8% of his triples.
Like Irving, Sacramento’s poor perimeter defence could lead to a nice night for him beyond the arc.
Paul has played three games with new San Antonio Spurs star De’Aaron Fox, clearing this number twice.
Fox gives the pass-first point guard another strong scoring option alongside Victor Wembanyama and that duo should feast against the Washington Wizards tonight.
Washington allows an NBA-high 121.6 PPG.
Only 2 teams allow more assists/game to PGs.
Paul had 11 assists vs. the Wizards in Nov.
The Spurs scored 139 points in that prior meeting against Washington. That’s a lot to ask for again but tonight’s total of 237 points is the second-highest of the 10-game slate.
There should be plenty of scoring, giving Paul a great opportunity to pile up dimes against Washington, which gets torched both in the paint and the perimeter.
Key stat: Paul is 9-1 against the line over his last 10 games.
Quick picks
Braun over 5.5 rebounds (-109): The 23-year-old is having a solid season as he’s transitioned into a starting role with the Denver Nuggets.
Braun is scoring 14.7 points per game with excellent efficiency and he’s been strong on the glass lately.
He’s cleared this number in all five games this month (averaging 8.2 boards) and landed on exactly five in four straight before that.
Braun is seeing plenty of run, averaging 36.4 minutes per game in February. Russell Westbrook remains out and Michael Porter Jr. (hamstring) is questionable.
The minutes should be there again against a Portland Trail Blazers team that is bottom 10 in the NBA in rebounding rate.
Back Mavericks duo
Irving over 2.5 threes (-136): With Davis out, Irving goes back to assuming the alpha role in Dallas.
Prior to Davis’ arrival, Irving cleared this mark in 14 of 21 games without Luka Doncic this season, according to StatMuse.
He faces a Sacramento Kings team that allows opponents to shoot 37.7% from deep, the second-worst mark in the NBA.
Irving is drilling threes at a 40.7% clip this season, averaging 2.9 per game.
He’s gotten 40-plus minutes in three straight contests and is a good bet to get up at least 20 shots tonight. A healthy number of those should come from long-range.
Washington over 25.5 points/rebounds (-115): Washington was quiet over 16 minutes in Davis’ Mavericks debut before leaving with a right ankle sprain.
The injury has him questionable tonight and it could certainly limit him if he plays. But I’m expecting strong production if he’s a go.
Washington had a big January, his best month of the season. He averaged 17.1 points and 9.7 rebounds.
The 26-year-old topped this line in five of six games ahead of Davis’ debut:
Jan. 31 vs. DET: 22 pts, 13 reb
Jan. 29 vs NO: 25, 14 reb
Jan. 27 vs. WSH: 19 pts, 9 reb
Jan. 25 vs. BOS: 17 pts, 8 reb
Jan. 23 vs. OKC: 22 pts, 19 reb
Jan. 22 vs. MIN: 30 pts, 7 reb
Washington is averaging a career-high 8.2 rebounds per contest and has some three-point upside, converting 37.8% of his triples.
Like Irving, Sacramento’s poor perimeter defence could lead to a nice night for him beyond the arc.
I’m cooking up a +1,000 Super Bowl SGP for the final game of the NFL season.
The pregame narrative: Star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are featured in this five-leg play. A side and total pick also factor into this same-game parlay recommendation.
Here’s my suggestion on how to turn $10 into $100 in this long shot Super Bowl SGP for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
Under 51.5 points (-167): Both teams cleared this big number in their conference championship victories. And with so much star power, it’s not hard to talk yourself into a shootout.
But clearing this total has been rare for both teams.
16/19 Chiefs games went under 51.5
16/20 Eagles games went under 51.5
Philadelphia allowed an NFL-low 17.9 points per game this season. Kansas City was fourth at 19.4.
Every matchup is different, but the O/U record on this number is 6-14 over the last 20 Super Bowls.
Count on the quarterbacks
Hurts anytime TD (-134): Hurts rushed for three TDs last game and one the game before that.
He found the end zone in 12 of 18 contests this season.
Hurts will call his own number and get a crack at scoring if the Eagles are in short-yardage situations by the goal line.
Propelling Hurts forward might not be the most aesthetically pleasing football play but it’s effective. And the Eagles do it often.
Opportunity is important here and Hurts will have his chances in the red zone.
Hurts 30+ rushing yards (-230): Sticking with Hurts, he only managed to turn double-digit carries into 16 yards against the Washington Commanders in the NFC championship game.
But he reached this mark in two playoff games before that and three straight regular season games to close the year. In all, Hurts is 13-5 against this number this season.
He’s known for his one-yard TD scores, but Hurts was third in the NFL among quarterbacks in rushing yards per attempt.
Kansas City has had a strong season against the run. Slowing Saquon Barkley at any point could open up the door more for Hurts.
Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-230): Mahomes had more than five rushing attempts in three of 16 regular season games.
He’s had six-plus carries in five consecutive playoff games, including a career-high 11 in Kansas City’s AFC championship victory over the Buffalo Bills.
No one should expect 43 yards and two scores again. But Mahomes can scramble when needed and the Chiefs’ running back situation isn’t exactly oozing with confidence.
Mahomes has averaged 29 rushing yards per game over 20 career playoff contests.
Eagles ML (+104): I’ve written about liking the Eagles to win and backing them as a favourite on an alternate spread.
The addition of Eagles on the moneyline has the longest odds of any leg in this parlay, driving the SGP from +600 to +1,000.
It’s a significant jump in payout potential for a pick I’m bullish on.
The Eagles are 15-1 since their Week 5 bye, Barkley has been as good as any offensive player and they’ve been the better team in several key areas.
No sport in North America is bet on more than the NFL. And no event sees more wagers than the Super Bowl, which caps off the league’s season in February each year.
The NFL is king when it comes to betting, creating action throughout the week with games on Monday and Thursday in addition to the leadup to the big Sunday slate.
-> New to NFL wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.
-> New to NFL wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.
There are many ways to bet on the NFL. The point spread is the most common, but there are several other markets, including player props, that attract a high volume of wagers.
How to bet on the NFL
For those new or in need of a refresher, this NFL betting guide will run you through the markets that football-loving bettors like to wager on.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and weekly NFL markets.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets accountto explore live odds and weekly NFL markets.
Moneyline betting
Wagering on the moneyline isn’t as popular among NFL bettors as it is for leagues like the NHL and MLB, but it’s still part of the NFL betting experience.
A moneyline bet is straightforward: It requires you to pick the team you think will win the game. If you like the Bills to beat the Patriots and place a wager on it, that’s a moneyline bet.
Each team will come with its own set of odds based on its probability of winning that specific contest. The odds will ultimately determine the potential payout.
A team that is favoured will have a minus (-) sign before its odds, while the underdog will have a plus (+) sign.
Team success of course plays a major role in determining which club is assigned as the favourite.
Other factors include which team is home and the health of the roster. Missing key players will have an impact on the odds.
Quarterbacks, specifically, can swing the lines considerably.
Let’s say QB Josh Allen was unable to play in that hypothetical Bills/Patriots matchup, Buffalo would likely go from a short favourite to an underdog.
-> Want to see current NFL moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
-> Want to see current NFL moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
With a healthy Allen at home, the Bills might be -140 favourites. But without him, they could flip to a +200 underdog. A swing like that is monumental for bettors.
Moneyline odds vary considerably between matchups and every week there are large favourites that see odds of -600 or higher. At those odds, a team would have an 85 percent implied probability of winning that matchup.
Here’s an example of the return you would make depending on the odds:
Odds
Wager
To win
-140
$140
$100
-600
$600
$100
+130
$100
$130
Unless you’re backing an underdog to win straight up — a low-probability outcome — there’s bigger payout potential by betting the spread.
Note: You will also see the moneyline referred to as ML for short.
Point spread betting
Betting on the point spread is the most common wager made by NFL gamblers.
A point spread is a number assigned by sportsbooks that a team either has to win by or can lose by. These numbers vary depending on the matchup, whether a team is at home and if a key player is injured.
Let’s go back to that hypothetical Bills and Patriots matchup and say Buffalo is at home and Allen is healthy. It would be reasonable to assume that the Bills would be favoured by 3.5 points. If you selected them to cover that spread, it would mean that they would have to win by at least four points.
If you backed the Patriots on the spread, however, they could lose and you would win your bet as long as they weren’t defeated by more than three points.
Under this scenario, you would see the Bills listed at -3.5 and the Patriots at +3.5. Most lines are set at odds of -110 for both sides of the spread, which creates action on both teams.
One thing to note about the point spread is that it often changes throughout the week. Opening lines come out early (typically Sunday night once the majority of games that week have been played) but it can look much different by the time the game starts at the end of the week.
-> Ready to try spread betting?Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines all week long.
-> Ready to try spread betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines all week long.
This can be a result of player availability. But it also could change depending on how many bettors are favouring a particular side. If a majority backs New England +3.5, it could move to Bills -3 or -2.5 to create more action on Buffalo.
Like other sports, there are alternative spreads as well.
You can buy more points, meaning you could take the Bills at -6.5 and see your odds change to something like +120. You could pay more and pick them to only have to cover a -2.5 spread at say -160.
How to bet on the NFL: Totals
Totals are also highly popular among NFL bettors. When you wager on the total, you are betting on how many points will be scored in a game.
Sportsbooks will set a number and you decide whether the two teams will score more or fewer points. You will also see totals referred to as the over/under or O/U. All three terms are interchangeable.
Most totals for a game are between 40-50 points. Some, like a game involving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against another high-powered offence, will approach the mid-50s.
Photo by Charlie Riedel/AP.
Like point spreads, -110 odds are the standard on totals for both the over and under.
Also like point spreads, you can bet on alternative totals as well.
You can wager on team-specific totals and place a bet on how many points you think each team will score. The total would be lower than the game total because only one team’s output would matter for this bet type.
Player props involve betting on individual outcomes in a game. The prop market is robust, giving bettors plenty of ways to wager on a game in addition to the spread, total and moneyline.
Let’s use the Bills again as an example and run through some common props that are available each game.
There are a number of different quarterback props listed every week. You can wager on a QB’s touchdowns, completions and yards. You’ll be offered a total and you can select whether he will go over or under that number.
These types of over/under props are also available for running backs and receivers. Common props you will see for these players centre around their yards totals, receptions, and rushing attempts.
Anytime touchdown props are also popular, where you can wager on a player scoring a TD for that particular game.
There are also markets for team and game props. These can include over/unders on the total amount of touchdowns or field goals for the contest.
-> Check out the latest player props each week at NorthStar Bets – from TD scorers to passing yards and more.
-> Check out the latest player props each week at NorthStar Bets – from TD scorers to passing yards and more.
How to bet on NFL futures
The futures market involves betting on outcomes that will happen at a later time. This is a great way to bet if you’re willing to play the long game and find good value.
Among the more popular NFL futures markets is picking the Super Bowl champion. You can do this well before the season starts or enter the market in-season.
Super Bowl odds are constantly changing due to team performance and injuries. They will change once again when the playoff field is set and there are only a select amount of teams that even have a chance to win.
A team could open at +1,500 to win the Super Bowl but be +750 once the playoffs start. There’s obviously risk betting far away from the Super Bowl, as the team you select may not even make it. But it’s when you will find the most value and increase your chances for a larger payout.
Betting on season-long awards is another way to enter the futures market. You can wager on the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and so on.
Parlays
A parlay consists of making multiple bets on a single ticket. You make one wager and every bet on that parlay must win in order for a bettor to cash their ticket. You could predict the correct outcome of four different games but if the fifth was incorrect, you would lose the parlay.
Parlays can be a combination of moneylines, spreads, totals and player props. Each bet is called a leg.
An example of an NFL parlay looks like this:
•Buffalo -3.5 (-110) •Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions (-118) •Bears vs. Packers under 50.5 (-110)
Combined odds = +574. If you predicted all three outcomes correctly, you would win $574 (a total payout of $674) on a $100 bet.
A parlay has to have at least two bets attached to the same ticket but can have many more. Keep in mind: The more bets you add to a single ticket decreases your likelihood of winning. But parlays are attractive to some because the payouts are bigger than a single-game wager.
At NorthStar Bets, you can also make a same-game parlay bet. This means you can combine a moneyline, over/under and player prop from the same game.
For example, you could bet on Buffalo to win, the total to go over 45.5 points and for Allen to throw for 300-plus yards.
Live betting provides users with options to bet on games after they start as they play out in real time. Among the markets you can bet on are the moneyline, over/under and point spread. You can also make in-game bets on player props.
Once the game starts, these lines can quickly look different from what they were set at before play started.
The Bills, for example, may have closed as a -3.5, -145 favourite against New England with an over/under set at 44.5. But those lines could move fast if either team got out to a quick lead.
Let’s say it was New England that got ahead early, going up 10-0 within the first few minutes of the game. The Patriots would then surely become the favourite on the moneyline and spread and the O/U would soar past that 44.5 mark because of the amount of early scoring.
-> Experience live NFL betting as it happens – sign up with NorthStar Bets and get in on every drive
-> Experience live NFL betting as it happens – sign up with NorthStar Bets and get in on every drive
If you still liked the Bills to win, you would then be able to bet on them as an underdog.
That’s just one example. Odds are constantly changing throughout the game — certainly after a score and even a change of possession. Buffalo could quickly become the favourite again and end your chance to get them as a plus-money underdog.
While markets remain open throughout a game, they will close from time to time based on a number of factors. These include timeouts and injuries, or a team increasing its odds of scoring by entering the red zone.
-> Ready to put your NFL knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long
-> Ready to put your NFL knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long
