Chris Toman

Two Denver Nuggets highlight Wednesday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on teammates Christian Braun and Michael Porter Jr., in addition to recommendations on Ausar Thompson and Khris Middleton.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 5.

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Best bet: Braun over 20.5 points/rebounds (-120)

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I’m pouncing on this. This line is way too light as far as I’m concerned.

The Nuggets guard has been balling and clearing this line with ease of late.

• Braun is coming off a 24-point, six-rebound effort in a loss to the Boston Celtics.

• In February, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.2 rebounds.

• He got 35 minutes a game last month and saw his largest shot volume from the field.

Braun is a solid contributor to Denver’s well-balanced offence and has been excellent on the glass.

For everyone, including the 23-year-old, there should be more rebounds available tonight with Domantas Sabonis on the sidelines for the Sacramento Kings.

Key stat: Since Feb. 1, Braun is 10-3 against this line.

Best NBA picks

Porter over 2.5 threes (+104): Sticking with the Nuggets, this is a good spot to get Porter at better than even money.

The sharpshooter is drilling 2.5 triples per game on 41.0% percent shooting. February was his best 3-point shooting month of the season and he faces a team that struggles to contain opponents from deep.

Sacramento is tied for last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage. Only two teams allow more threes on a nightly basis.

Porter fell short of this line the last time he faced Sacramento but got up eight shots from long range. He’s a great bet to clear this number if we see a repeat of that volume.

Thompson over 12.5 points (-110): The Detroit Pistons will be without Tobias Harris tonight, the team’s third-leading scorer post-all-star-break, and face the Los Angeles Clippers, who are on a back-to-back. 

Extra looks without Harris could go a long way for the efficient Thompson, a modest scorer who’s shooting 56.7% from the field on the season and averaging 13.1 points per game since the start of February.

Over that 14-game stretch, Thompson has cleared this line nine times. 

The second-year forward has dropped 13-plus points in three straight and will in all likelihood see an undermanned Clippers squad after the club played Tuesday night in Phoenix.

Back veteran Middleton in plus matchup

Middleton over 14.5 points (-118): The stage is set for one of the ugliest games of the season.

Both the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards are banged up and playing for nothing more than the lottery. But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is without betting opportunity.

Middleton will represent the biggest name on the floor and he’s the guy I’m targeting. 

The veteran is coming off his two best games with the Wizards, dropping 16 points on Monday and 17 over the weekend. 

His minutes have been curbed to around 25 a night, but the oft-injured forward faces a horrendous Jazz team.

• The Jazz are last in the NBA in defensive rating.
• They’ve allowed 130+ points in 5 of their last 12.
• No team allows more 3-point attempts/game.

While Middleton hasn’t shot well from long range with Washington, he’s historically been a strong 3-point shooter and will have a good opportunity to get going from deep Wednesday night.

Only the New Orleans Pelicans are surrendering more threes per game.

Picks made at 2:04 p.m. ET on 03/05/2025.

Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell headline Tuesday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: The two guards should take advantage of soft competition and have big offensive nights. I also like Naz Reid to stay active on the glass.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 4.

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Best bet: Lillard over 3.5 threes (-139)

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This isn’t a great price to convert four-plus 3-pointers but Lillard finds himself in a plus matchup. 

Lillard’s Milwaukee Bucks get the Atlanta Hawks, a poor defensive team playing for the second consecutive night.

Atlanta surrendered 130 points in Monday’s win and now faces a well-rested Bucks team that has been off since Saturday and won six of its last seven games.

Expect Milwaukee to run up the score and for Lillard to be providing a lot of the heavy lifting.

The Bucks point guard has feasted on Atlanta this season:

• Feb. 7: 23 points, 4 threes
• Dec. 14: 25 points, 5 threes
• Dec. 4: 25 points, 5 threes

Lillard has taken 10-plus attempts from 3-point land in three of his last four games, cashing this bet each time he reached double digits.

Volume should be there again tonight. The all-star has attempted 27 shots from beyond the arc in his last two games against the Hawks.

Key stat: Atlanta is 28th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Best NBA picks

Reid over 9.5 rebounds (+108): Don’t be fooled by Reid’s average of 6.1 rebounds per game.

The 25-year-old has cleared this line in five straight games and in seven of his last eight. 

Since Feb. 1, when he entered the starting rotation, he’s averaging 9.5 rebounds over 14 games, getting 35.8 minutes a night.

Rudy Gobert remains out for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who get the Philadelphia 76ers on a back-to-back. Gobert’s absence will keep Reid locked in the starting five. 

Julius Randle returned Sunday after missing a month but is questionable tonight. There could be a lot of rebounds available to Reid versus the 76ers, who will once again miss Joel Embiid’s presence at the rim. 

Philadelphia, which has the lowest rebounding rate in the NBA, was eaten alive on the glass in last night’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Mitchell over 26.5 points (-106): The Cleveland Cavaliers shooting guard is coming off a 41-point game and steps into a juicy matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago surrenders 120.4 points per game, trailing only the Washington Wizards for the most in the NBA.

The Bulls allowed 144 points the last time they played the Cavaliers and Mitchell has dismantled Chicago in both meetings this season.

• Nov. 15: 37 points, 7 threes
• Nov. 13: 36 points, 7 threes

Cleveland’s leading scorer has topped this line in three of five contests since the NBA All-Star Game.

He landed on 26 points in one of the games where he fell short and saw reduced minutes in a 40-point win in the other.

Mitchell is cooking ahead of tonight’s showdown vs. the Bulls, who allow the fifth-most points to shooting guards (per Betting Pros).

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET on 03/04/2025.

The new NBA week kicks off with seven games and I’m dialling up three prop picks for the evening’s slate.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped up his 3-point shooting and headlines the plays. Fellow star guard Ja Morant is also featured alongside Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 3.

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 threes (-122)

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Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for another big scoring night on a back-to-back against the Houston Rockets.

The Oklahoma City Thunder superstar’s points line is 31.5. He’s scored 30-plus points in well over half of his games and leads the NBA in PPG.

Assuming he can flirt with 30 again, I like him to can a couple of triples and believe there’s value on his 3-point prop.

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a long-range assassin but he’s been hitting deep shots with more frequency lately.

• He’s cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games.

• SGA is shooting 42.7% from the perimeter over that stretch.

• He’s 7-4 against this line on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Houston allows the fewest 3-pointers per game in the Western Conference, but that’s baked into this price. 

Gilgeous-Alexander was priced around -150 for yesterday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, whom he drilled three 3s against.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.4 threes per game since Feb. 1.

Best NBA picks

Duren over 24.5 pts/reb (-115): The Utah Jazz represent a plus scoring matchup for Duren, who’s coming off his best month of the season.

Duren averaged 13.6 points per game in February and cleaned up on the glass for the surging Pistons.

Detroit’s big man looks like a good bet to excel in both areas again tonight. Utah allows the sixth-most points per game to centres, per Betting Pros.

• Duren has double-digit boards in 12 of his last 15 games.

• He’s 9-6 vs. this line over that stretch.

• Since Jan. 1, he’s topped this mark in 17 of 29 games.

Morant over 23.5 points (-118): Morant (shoulder) is questionable but I expect him to feast if he’s out there.

Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks has an enormous total of 253.5 points. It’s by far the biggest of Monday’s slate.

The Atlanta Hawks are 27th in the NBA in points allowed per game and the Memphis Grizzlies are right behind them, ranking 25th.

These teams are No. 1 and 2 in the NBA in pace and Memphis is just outside the top five in offensive rating.

There should be a ton of scoring tonight and Atlanta has been getting torched by point guards.

Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham (twice) and Jalen Brunson are among the PGs who have dropped 30-plus points on Atlanta over the last month and several others have cleared this line.

Morant ended February with back-to-back 25-plus-point games and hit that number in five of nine contests last month.

Picks made at 12:37 p.m. ET on 03/03/2025.

Three prop picks are in play for Wednesday’s nine-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Veterans Paul George and DeMar DeRozan are tonight’s top targets. I also have a recommendation on Ivica Zubac.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 26.

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Best bet: George over 17.5 points (-109)

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Star centre Joel Embiid is out, likely for some time. Check out how George has fared against this line with and without Embiid in the lineup (per StatMuse): 

• With Embiid: 4-14 (14.2 PPG)
• Without Embiid: 10-10 (18.1 PPG)

George’s first year with the Philadelphia 76ers has been a disaster. His scoring output hasn’t been this low since his sophomore season (2011-12).

A recent tendon injury to his finger has limited George and forced him to play with a splint. He was injured earlier in the season, too.

That doesn’t let him off the hook completely, but it does help explain his lack of production. 

George said the all-star break provided some much-needed rest and he’s responded with 15-plus points in three straight games.

It’s hard to celebrate that for a player of George’s calibre, but it’s baby steps considering how badly his month started. 

The nine-time all-star averaged 10.2 points through his first five games of February. 

George is moving in the right direction and I like that to continue tonight with Embiid out.

Key stat: George has topped 25 points in both meetings against the New York Knicks, who have done a poor job defending wing players.

Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 21.5 points (-103): Sticking with scoring props, I’m taking the over on a reasonable DeRozan line.

The risk here is blowout potential against the depleted Utah Jazz, who are last in the Western Conference. But there’s plenty to like about this matchup.

• Utah ranks No. 28 in the NBA in opponent points per game.

• The Jazz get shredded by wings, allowing the fourth-most points to small forwards and second most to shooting guards (per Betting Pros).

• DeRozan is averaging 24.8 points in nine games since De’Aaron Fox was traded to the San Antonio Spurs.

The veteran, known more for his midrange game and ability from the line, has been propping up his point totals with his outside shot.

DeRozan has canned multiple triples in half of his games this month.

Zubac over 15.5 points (-132): If Kawhi Leonard is humming alongside guards James Harden and Norman Powell, it’s going to make Zubac’s nightly scoring projection difficult.

It’s easier to see the upside with one of them out. That’s the case tonight in a plus matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

Powell has missed three straight games and is out Wednesday. Zubac has averaged 18.3 points over those contests, hitting the 20-point mark twice.

He’s 8-3 against this number without Powell this season. Expect the Los Angeles Clippers’ big man to produce.

• The Bulls rank last in the NBA in points allowed in the paint.

• Zubac is fourth in paint touches per game and second in field goal attempts in the paint, per NBA.com.

• Chicago allows the second-most points to centres.

Picks made at 11:43 a.m. ET on 02/26/2025.

I have three prop bet recommendations for Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s picks are on guards De’Aaron Fox and Austin Reaves, and Boston Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 25.

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Best bet: Fox over 24.5 points (-112)

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Tonight’s San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans matchup has the second-highest projected total of the evening.

A shade under 240 points, scoring is expected and I want a piece of the player with the highest upside.

Fox has only played eight games with the Spurs since his trade from the Sacramento Kings. Of those eight, five came alongside superstar teammate Victor Wembanyama, who’s out for the season.

The star point guard has averaged 21.4 points over his brief Spurs tenure, but this new situation hasn’t really told us much and won’t until Wembanyama is (hopefully) back on the court next season.

Here’s why I like Fox to eat tonight:

• Fox has dropped 26-plus points in two of his last three games without Wembanyama.

• He has taken seven attempts from deep in three straight games.

• The Pelicans allow the 2nd-most threes per game and rank 23rd in opponent 3PT%.

The 6-foot-3 southpaw, who averaged 25.0 points with the Kings, should be active from long range, driving up his output.

Expect some huge games from Fox down the stretch. This looks like it will be one of them.

Key stat: New Orleans is 28th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Quick picks

Reaves over 28.5 PRA (-104): You’ll be paying a premium if you’re backing Luka Doncic on Tuesday night. 

The discount prices are officially over ahead of tonight’s game against his former team following his best game (32 points) as a Los Angeles Laker.

But there’s an opportunity to get his teammate at a light line.

Reaves has scored 20-plus points in two of the four games he’s played with Doncic. 

The 26-year-old guard is a strong No. 3 option on the Lakers and can benefit from playing alongside playmakers like Doncic and LeBron James, who draw extra defenders. 

Reaves is 8-1 against this line in February. The one game he fell short was when he was ejected.

The Dallas Mavericks have defended guards well, but they’re 24th in defensive rating this month and will surely be paying significant attention to Doncic.

Porzingis over 7.5 rebounds (+100): Centres tend to perform well against the Toronto Raptors, who may once again be without Jakob Poeltl tonight.

Poeltl is questionable as of Tuesday afternoon and has been out since early February. Even if he does play, he’ll likely have his minutes capped.

He’s the best rebounder (by far) on the Raptors, who allow the eighth-most rebounds to centres, according to Betting Pros.

Porzingis has hit this at a below-50% rate this season, but one of those times came against Toronto in January.

And he’s gotten to seven rebounds in 65% of his games, so he’s often living around this number.

Picks made at 12:57 p.m. ET on 02/25/2025.