Chris Toman

Two big men and Devin Booker represent Friday’s top NBA prop picks for the 10-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I trust Booker to get his outside shot going vs. the Sacramento Kings and like Evan Mobley and Rudy Gobert to produce in different ways.

Check out how I’m betting on these three in the best NBA prop bets for March 14.

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Best bet: Gobert 10+ rebounds (-127)

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This will mark Gobert’s third game since returning from a back injury that sidelined him for nearly a month. 

He corralled eight rebounds in 20 minutes before seeing a significant spike in minutes his last time out. 

Gobert is coming off a 10-rebound effort in 30 minutes, marking the seventh time in his last 10 games that he’s secured double-digit rebounds. 

That’s been a very achievable number for him to hit both this season and throughout his career. 

• Gobert has 10-plus rebounds in 60% of his games this season. The implied probability of this line is 55.95%. 

• The Minnesota Timberwolves big man is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, marking the 10th consecutive season he’s hit the double-figure mark. 

Minnesota has the rest advantage tonight against the Orlando Magic, who are below average in rebounding rate.

Key stat: Gobert had a 12-rebound double-double vs. Orlando in January.

Best NBA picks

Booker over 2.5 threes (-109): The Kings have allowed 130-plus points in consecutive games and were obliterated from long range in each outing (both losses). 

And one of those was last night, setting up a difficult back-to-back situation. The Phoenix Suns have been disappointing but are a top-10 offence in the NBA. 

Sacramento’s last two games defending the 3-ball: 

• Vs. NY: 22 threes, 56.4 3P%
• Vs. GS: 22 threes, 55.0 3P%

Booker has cleared this line in 10 of his last 18 and just over 50% of his games this season. 

The Kings allow the third-most triples per game and rank last in opponent 3-point percentage.

Booker should be firing from deep tonight. He’s averaging the most attempts from long range in his career and is fourth in the NBA in minutes. 

The all-star cleared this line on 10 attempts in an earlier meeting between these teams in November.

Mobley over 21.5 points (-110): Darius Garland is an obvious guy to step up without Donovan Mitchell.

But he’s also going to exert tremendous energy defending the Memphis Grizzlies’ dangerous backcourt duo of Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. 

I’m more interested in betting on Mobley to deliver an uptick in scoring in a matchup that features tonight’s biggest total (244.5). 

• Mobley has averaged an extra three minutes of playing time in five games without Mitchell this season, per StatMuse.

• His scoring average has gone up 4.5 points in those games to 23.0, and he’s hit the 20-point mark all five times. 

• These teams met in February and produced 252 points. Mobley scored 25 over a game-high 36 minutes.

NBA prop picks made at 11:37 a.m. ET on 03/14/2025.

Golden State Warriors star Jimmy Butler headlines Thursday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I like Butler to fill the stat sheet against the Sacramento Kings and am adding plays on Coby White and Trey Murphy.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 13.

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Best bet: Butler over 30.5 PRA (-127)

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The Warriors are 12-2 since acquiring Butler and sport the No. 5 offence in the NBA over that stretch.

They should have a great offensive night against the Kings, who are 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating since the start of February and are among the bottom 10 in both field goal and 3-point percentage. 

The latter area has been a particular concern all year. Sacramento’s defence ranks last in 3PT% and allows more triples per game than all but two teams.

Golden State is sure to be firing from long range, particularly Steph Curry, which will help Butler stack up some easy assists as one of the team’s top distributors.

Even without a 3-point shot himself, Butler should contribute as a scorer. 

• Over the last 30 days, Sacramento has allowed the fifth-most PPG to the small forward position (per Betting Pros).

• Butler is 7-6 vs. this line with the Warriors and had an efficient 17/7/3 outing when Golden State faced the Kings shortly after the trade.

He breezed past this number in an earlier matchup vs. Sacramento as a member of the Miami Heat (Nov. 4).

Key stat: Butler has cleared this line in three straight games, averaging 36.0 PRA.

Best NBA picks

White over 21.5 points (-125): White is taking more than 20 shots a game this month with 10 of them coming from long range. 

He’s doing it on 35.4 minutes a night, averaging 29 PPG. 

That’s propped up by a 44-point outburst against the Orlando Magic, but he’s cleared this line in three of his other four March games.

The Chicago Bulls guard is 8-8 vs. this number since Feb. 1, landing on 21 points once and 20 twice. An extra free throw or field goal in those games would make this pick look like a slam dunk.

• White is streaky but is averaging 23.4 points in 10 games out of the break and has big upside from the perimeter.

• The Brooklyn Nets are 25th in the NBA in opponent 3PT%.

• White nailed five triples when he faced Brooklyn in November, finishing with 21 points.

Murphy over 2.5 threes (-134): We’re used to seeing Murphy’s 3-point line set at 3.5 but a down stretch gives us a chance to buy in at a lighter number. And I’m all for it.

• The sharpshooting wing is averaging career highs of 3.1 made threes and 8.5 attempts per game.

• Murphy has cleared this line in 29 of 50 games.

• Even in his worst shooting month from distance, Murphy has cleared this at a 50% rate.

Orlando has been strong on the perimeter this season but vulnerable more recently, ranking 25th in opponent 3PT% since Feb. 1.

NBA prop picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 03/13/2025.

Ja Morant and Kevin Durant headline tonight’s top prop picks for Wednesday’s nine-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Both Western Conference stars are playing high-end ball and I expect that to continue. I also have a play on Miami Heat sharpshooter Tyler Herro.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 12.

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Best bet: Morant over 26.5 points (-112)

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This is a hefty number but Morant is on fire ahead of tonight’s matchup. 

Morant has been slowed by injuries once again this season, and it shows in his scoring average: 21.7 points per game. 

But he sure looks healthy now. Since February, Morant has dropped 24.5 PPG.

• Morant has scored 25-plus points eight times in those 13 contests, including five of his last six. 

• Over those six games, the point guard has taken 20+ shots five times. 

Everything points to another big scoring night. March has so far been Morant’s top month for scoring, minutes played and shot volume. 

And he gets a juicy matchup against the Utah Jazz, who are last in the Western Conference and rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Key stat: Utah allows the third-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros.

Best NBA picks

Durant over 35.5 PRA (-120): We need 36 combined points/rebounds/assists from Durant tonight, a number he has been smashing. 

• Durant is averaging 42.2 PRA in five March games on 40.1 minutes a night.

• He has cleared this line in all five games and almost did it on points alone his last time out — a 35-point effort vs. the Grizzlies. 

• The veteran is 7-4 against this line since the All-Star Game.

Durant dropped 37 points, nine assists and five rebounds in the game before the break against the Houston Rockets, who he sees tonight. 

The Phoenix Suns are desperate for wins in their attempt to get into the play-in round and will ride their leading scorer as long as they’re in the mix.

Herro over 21.5 points (-124): This isn’t a great matchup for Herro on the surface but he’ll get the Los Angeles Clippers on a back-to-back.

Los Angeles defends guards well, ranks fourth in defensive rating, and limits opponents from the outside.

But the Heat will have the rest advantage and the Clippers are sure to be undermanned. Kawhi Leonard will almost certainly sit.

Herro is slumping in what’s been a career year but this is still a light line and not a number we’re able to get him at often.

Despite a slow March (20.4 PPG), Herro has notched 21-plus points in four of five games.

The long-range assassin is 6-4 against this line since the ASG and can get dangerous from deep in a hurry, giving him big scoring upside every night.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 03/12/2025.

Monday’s basketball slate is loaded. There are 12 games in the NBA and I’m dialling up four prop picks for the busy night.

The pregame narrative: My best bet is on Kevin Durant and I’m expecting some other stars to deliver scoring, including De’Aaron Fox and Tyler Herro. I have a fourth play on Myles Turner.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 10.

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Best bet: Durant over 32.5 points/rebounds (-112)

The Memphis Grizzlies host the Phoenix Suns in a game that has the highest total of the night. 

Both teams are playing for the second consecutive day. Phoenix is last in defensive rating since Feb. 1 and desperate for wins, while the Grizzlies are No. 1 in the NBA in pace. 

These teams met in February and combined for 299 points in an overtime win for the Grizzlies.

Scoring should come easy tonight, as it has for Durant in three previous meetings vs. Memphis this season:

• Feb. 25: 26 points 
• Feb. 11: 34 points 
• Dec. 31: 29 points 

Durant has averaged 7.0 rebounds in those matchups and cleared this line every time. 

Getting heavy minutes and taking a high volume of shots from the outside, Durant should have another big showing against Memphis.

Key stat: Durant is averaging exactly 33.0 points/rebounds on the season.

Best NBA picks

Fox over 20.5 points (-107): This line was typically five points higher before Fox’s trade to the San Antonio Spurs. 

But since the blockbuster, he’s playing with a much weaker supporting cast. His volume and minutes have dropped, while his 3-point shot has cratered. 

Fox is 1-7 against this line over his last eight games. Sunday’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves was the lone time he eclipsed this mark, using an efficient night to drop 22 points. 

This matchup offers promise that Fox, who has three 25.0 PPG seasons under his belt, can do it again.

The Dallas Mavericks have allowed 120-plus points in five straight games.

Guards Damian Lillard (twice), Zach LaVine, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Devin Booker have all cleared this line vs. Dallas over that stretch.

Herro over 22.5 points (-122): Here’s another talented scoring guard who we can back on a lighter line tonight. 

Herro is having a career year and assuming a much larger piece of the Miami Heat offence. 

His scoring is up three PPG and he’s among the most dangerous 3-point shooters in the game.

The Heat get the Charlotte Hornets, who are No. 23 in the NBA in defensive rating since the all-star game.

• Herro dropped 27 on the Hornets the last time he faced them.

• He had a 22-point game against them earlier in the season.

• Herro combined for seven 3-pointers in the two games. 

• The 25-year-old is 0-4 vs. this line in March but scored 21, 22 and 22 points in three of the games.

Turner prop pick

Turner over 16.5 points (-117): The Indiana Pacers’ big man has at least 16 points in eight of his last nine, topping this number six times.

He’s 0-2 vs. this line against the Chicago Bulls (15 and 16 points), but they still represent a plus matchup.

Chicago allows the third-most points to centres, per Betting Pros, and surrenders an NBA-high 120.6 points per game.

Turner has an improved outside shot, giving him more scoring upside each night. His outlook would be even better if Tyrese Haliburton sits. The star guard has missed back-to-back games and is questionable.

NBA prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 03/10/2025.

De’Aaron Fox makes his return to Sacramento and I’m backing the star point guard to do damage against his former team.

The pregame narrative: The over on Fox’s point total is my favourite prop pick of the night. I also have plays on Kawhi Leonard and Jaden McDaniels.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 7.

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Best bet: Fox over 22.5 points (-117)

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Fox has been quiet with the San Antonio Spurs and has failed to top 20 points in any of his last six games. 

He’s been broke from beyond the arc and his lack of volume from the field has curbed his scoring upside. 

• With Kings: 19.6 FGA/game; 32.2 3P%
• With Spurs: 16.4 FGA/game; 26.4 3P%

But we know what he’s capable of. The 27-year-old guard averaged 25.0 PPG before the trade after hitting that number in two consecutive seasons. 

Fox is a gifted scorer who can contribute from the perimeter and often had point lines set well above this number. 

It’s only a matter of time before he starts reeling off 25-plus point games again, and I’m leaning into the revenge angle here. He’s the No. 1 scoring option on the Spurs and he’ll be hungry tonight.

This isn’t a narrative play, though. Fox can hurt teams in multiple ways.

He’s among the top guards once he gets into the paint, scoring the fifth-most points per game in that area (per NBA.com). 

Fox can get going from deep, too, even if he hasn’t shown that lately. And his former club is an ideal team to light up from the perimeter.

Key stat: Sacramento is tied for last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage and only two teams allow more triples per game.

Best NBA picks

Leonard over 22.5 points (-105): Leonard is coming on strong and there are several reasons to like him tonight.

• Norman Powell, the Los Angeles Clippers’ leading scorer, is once again out.

• Leonard is well rested, having not played since Tuesday after sitting out the second leg of a back-to-back.

• That was Wednesday, where James Harden had to do the heavy lifting without Powell and Leonard, logging 38 minutes for the second consecutive night and dropping 50 points.

• The New York Knicks are coming off a difficult overtime loss on Thursday and will be shorthanded on the B2B. Jalen Brunson will surely be out after spraining his ankle. OG Anunoby was questionable last night before suiting up, but his status is uncertain tonight, too.

Leonard is also doing his thing. He’s logged 30-plus minutes in each of his last eight contests (averaging 34.8/game).

Over that stretch, he’s averaging 21.4 points and shooting 41.3% from deep. He has scored 25-plus points three times in his last six games and landed on 21 in another two.

New York is tied with the Kings for the worst opponent 3-point percentage in the NBA and the club is 24th in defensive rating over the last month.

McDaniels over 18.5 points/rebounds (-121): The Minnesota Timberwolves injury report only lists Rudy Gobert as questionable tonight vs. the Miami Heat.

They are finally close to getting back to a fully healthy roster, which means McDaniels’ scorching run since the start of February is bound to slow.

But this line is quite light for a player who has done this since Feb. 1:

• 18.7 PPG
• 37.0 MPG
• 50.4 FG%
• 8.1 RPG

McDaniels has matched this number on points alone and reached double-digit rebounds six times over that 16-game stretch.

If Gobert sits, this play will be the steal of the night. But I like it regardless — McDaniels has cleared this line in nine straight.

Picks made at 11:52 a.m. ET on 03/07/2025.

Two all-stars and Myles Turner make up Thursday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I’m fading New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson in a tough matchup and am backing Jayson Tatum on the glass vs. the Philadelphia 76ers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 6.

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Best bet: Brunson under 26.5 points (-127)

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The Los Angeles Lakers have played eight games since the Luka Doncic trade and only two point guards have cleared 20 points on them. Kyrie Irving and LaMelo Ball.

They’ve held some solid PGs under the 20-point mark:

• Jamal Murray
• Anfernee Simons
• CJ McCollum
• James Harden

While that group might not be the level of scorer as Irving or Ball, or Brunson for that matter, Simons (19.2 PPG) is the only one of those four averaging fewer than 20 a game.

The Lakers are 13th in the NBA in defensive rating. But since the Doncic trade, Los Angeles ranks No. 1.  

New York was without Karl-Anthony Towns last game but he’ll be back tonight. He averages 24.5 points a night and cuts into Brunson’s production when he’s on the court.

Per StatMuse:

• Brunson without Towns: 30.7 PPG
• Brunson with Towns: 25.5 PPG

New York’s leading scorer will almost surely flirt with this number. He has scored more than 20 points in all seven contests since the All-Star Game but has only cleared this line twice. 

The Knicks are relatively healthy and well-balanced. Their starting unit is all averaging at least 14.0 points per game.

All five of them scored in double figures when these teams met in early February. Brunson was held to 17 points on 7-of-18 shooting.

Key stat: Brunson has gone under this number in 60% of his games.

Best NBA picks

Tatum 10+ boards (+123): Tatum (shoulder) was out for the Boston Celtics’ double-digit win over the Portland Trail Blazers last night and is questionable tonight.

Assuming he plays, he’ll be in a good spot against a battered Philadelphia 76ers team missing Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

Forwards have rebounded the ball well vs. the 76ers, who are generally weak on the glass. Philadelphia ranks last in the NBA in rebounding rate.

Tatum has played the Sixers three times this season, averaging 11.0 rebounds in those matchups and clearing this line twice. 

Post-ASG, Boston’s star has secured double-digit boards in four of six games. His 8.8 rebounds per game represent a career-high mark.

Turner over 2.5 threes (+116): Here’s another plus-money play to close out today’s recommendations.

Three seems like a lot of 3-pointers for Turner, but consider this:

• Turner has career highs in 3-pointers made (2.2) and attempts (5.5), and he’s shooting 40% from beyond the arc for the first time.

• The Indiana Pacers centre is 6-4 against this line over his last 10 games (excluding a game he got hurt and held to six minutes).

• Since Jan. 1, he has at least two threes in 18 of 20 games while averaging 6.4 attempts.

• The Atlanta Hawks are No. 28 in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Tonight’s Pacers vs. Hawks game has a total of 246.5. There should be plenty of scoring to go around.

After taking 15 attempts from deep over his last two games, Turner should be firing it up from long range tonight.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 03/06/2025.