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Best 2025 MLB Opening Day prop bets: Back Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger, fade Sandy Alcantara in return

Fourteen games, 28 teams, with the action starting just after 3 p.m. ET. Opening Day is here, and so is the first 2025 installment of our daily MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: How about a big name to get us going early? I like Mike Trout to do damage in his first game of the season, and have plays on pitchers Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara. Lastly, I love the value on a Cody Bellinger prop for his New York Yankees debut.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Thursday, March 27.

MLB prop bets

MLB Opening Day Boost: Jays to win & Santander to homer. Bet now (+578)

Best bet: Trout over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Embed: #111786

Trout, the three-time MVP, needs little introduction.

As long as he’s healthy, which he is to start the season as the Los Angeles Angels’ new right fielder, I’ll look to pounce on his plus-money props early on.

Trout doesn’t need to be old Trout to provide value.

He’s been limited to 111 games over the last two seasons, and while he didn’t post MVP numbers, the power was still there when he was on the field.

Homers: 28
Slugging: .504
OPS: .860

Most players would sign up for that over 162 games.

The Angels face the Chicago White Sox, projected by FanGraphs to be the worst team in MLB with the least valuable pitching staff.

Chicago is starting Sean Burke, who had a good September in his first taste of the bigs last year after posting good minor league strikeout numbers.

But he’s been erratic and struggled to keep the ball in the yard, which was the case in spring training this year, too.

Key stat: Trout hit three homers with a 1.026 OPS in 39 spring at-bats.

Best MLB picks

Alcantara under 4.5 Ks (+125): So many stars go down with arm injuries every year, so it’s always good to get one back.

The 2022 NL Cy Young winner will make his first start since September 2023 after missing all of last season to Tommy John surgery.

Alcantara’s raw strikeout totals have been good (multiple 200-plus K seasons), but his K rates haven’t been anything special. Pre-injury, he was an innings-eater, which allowed him to accumulate.

And workload, I have to imagine, will be working against him on Thursday vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates.

According to MLB.com, the Miami Marlins ace threw fewer than 60 pitches in all five of his Grapefruit League outings. He never fanned more than three batters.

Most projection systems peg him as a below-average strikeout arm this season and this feels like a good value spot to fade him in what should be a lighter outing.

Lopez over 5.5 Ks (+115): This is a hard line to ignore at this price.

The Minnesota Twins right-hander cleared this in 19 of 32 starts last season on his way to 198 strikeouts and a top-15 K rate.

He made six starts in March/April last year, topping this line five times and hitting 85-plus pitches in four of those outings.

Lopez got up to 87 pitches in a spring start 10 days ago (and 78 the one before that). So I’m not really worried about his leash as long as he’s effective.

And he has a solid matchup to start the year off right against the St. Louis Cardinals. FanGraphs projects St. Louis to be a below-average team with a poor offence.

MLB prop bets: Top Bellinger pick

Bellinger over 1.5 total bases (+175): Scouring the markets has its benefits. This price makes absolutely no sense to me.

In pinstripes for the first time Thursday, Bellinger is coming off a solid two-year run with the Chicago Cubs (44 homers, .475 SLG%).

Now he gets to attack the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium after doing this in spring training:

.423/.464/.750
4 homers
14 runs
213 wRC+

That’s quite the first impression.

Bellinger and the Yankees get Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. At +175, you would think Peralta had Bellinger’s number. Not quite.

The left-handed masher owns a .417/.462/.750 line vs. Peralta in 13 plate appearances.

While I don’t put much stock into that, it does further cement the value on Bellinger, who has a career .837 OPS vs. righties.

MLB prop picks made at 3:48 p.m. ET on 03/26/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 21: Expect Leonard to stay hot and back Vassell, Herro

Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard is the headliner of today’s top NBA prop picks for Friday’s 10-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Leonard is on fire and I expect his tear to continue against the Memphis Grizzlies. Rounding out today’s plays are recommendations on Devin Vassell and Tyler Herro.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 21.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Leonard over 28.5 points/rebounds (-107)

Embed: #111538

I love the value on this prop. The way Leonard is going right now, he could top this line on points alone.

Leonard is playing his best basketball of the season. As long as he’s healthy and not restricted on minutes, he remains a force.

The veteran star is averaging 25.1 points and 6.5 rebounds this month.

He has scored 25-plus points in three of his last four games and cleared this line when he faced Memphis last month.

Leonard scored 25 points and added five boards in that win over the Grizzlies on Feb. 12.

Memphis plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and is No. 25 in points allowed per game since the all-star break.

Key stat: Including that February game vs. the Grizzlies, Leonard is 7-5 against this line over his last 12.

Best NBA picks

Vassell over 17.5 points (-122): This should be a high-scoring game with a total of 235.5, the biggest of today’s slate.

The hobbled and tanking Philadelphia 76ers are allowing the most points in the NBA since the break, surrendering an average of 123.6 per game.

Vassell’s San Antonio Spurs are not far behind at third. Expect a lot of buckets and for Vassell to be among the top players involved.

March has been Vassell’s best-scoring month of the season. Coming off a down 10-point game against the New York Knicks, Vassell is averaging 18.7 points this month.

He’s topped the 20-point mark three times in his past six and dropped a career-high 37 earlier in the month.

Vassell leads the Spurs in minutes in March and rookie Stephon Castle is the only teammate taking more shots.

Herro over 2.5 threes (-141): I’m not sure Herro has been available at this price more than a handful of times this season.

The sharpshooter’s 3-point line is typically set at 3.5, so this number certainly caught my eye.

Herro has slumped from beyond the arc since the break, though he’s 8-7 vs. this line since then.

And he gets a difficult matchup against the Houston Rockets, who defend the perimeter well and are fourth in the NBA in defensive rating.

But Herro remains a long-range threat and is a volume shooter, averaging 3.4 triples per game (a top-10 mark in the NBA).

NBA prop picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 03/21/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 20: Back Immanuel Quickley and Mark Williams on Thursday night

Mark Williams and Immanuel Quickley are the two guys I’m targeting for Thursday’s light five-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Both have difficult matchups but I expect that to affect their teams more than their individual performances. Williams’ Charlotte Hornets get the New York Knicks, while Quickley and the Toronto Raptors collide with the Golden State Warriors.

Check out how I’m betting on the pair in the best NBA prop bets for March 20.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Williams over 23.5 points/rebounds (-130)

The Hornets’ big man is coming off a dud but it came in a 30-point loss without Charlotte’s top two scorers (LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges).

Both are expected back tonight, which should theoretically lead to a more competitive game against the Knicks.

Charlotte is a 7.5-point home underdog but there are some things to like about Williams going into the matchup.

New York is 22nd in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, an area where Williams is extremely active.

Williams is third in the NBA in paint touches per game, taking more shots in that area than all players outside of Ivica Zubac.

The 23-year-old is averaging 25.4 points/rebounds this season, which includes a quiet first month. Since Jan. 1, he’s averaging 16.7 points and 11.1 rebounds.

Williams is a steady scorer with big rebounding upside, securing a double-double in eight of his last 10 games.

Key stat: Williams is 8-2 vs. this line in his last 10 games.

Best NBA picks

Quickley over 17.5 points (-108): The Raptors don’t stand much of a chance vs. the Warriors, sitting as a 14-point underdog as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday.

But with RJ Barrett out and Scottie Barnes’ production stalling in March, Quickley should be looking at another solid scoring night.

Toronto’s point guard has scored 15-plus points in 12 of his last 14 games. While 15 doesn’t cash this, he hits that benchmark often and it demonstrates his level of consistency.

Over that stretch, Quickey is 9-5 against this line while averaging 19.9 PPG.

The 25-year-old isn’t trigger-shy and should unload plenty from deep for the tanking Raptors, giving him a shot to put up points in bunches.

Quickley is averaging 2.8 threes/game on 8.0 attempts in March.

NBA prop picks made at 1:59 p.m. ET on 03/20/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 20: Back Immanuel Quickley and Mark Williams on Thursday night

Mark Williams and Immanuel Quickley are the two guys I’m targeting for Thursday’s light five-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Both have difficult matchups but I expect that to affect their teams more than their individual performances. Williams’ Charlotte Hornets get the New York Knicks, while Quickley and the Toronto Raptors collide with the Golden State Warriors.

Check out how I’m betting on the pair in the best NBA prop bets for March 20.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Williams over 24.5 points/rebounds (-103)

Embed: #111508

The Hornets’ big man is coming off a dud but it came in a 30-point loss without Charlotte’s top two scorers (LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges).

Both are expected back tonight, which should theoretically lead to a more competitive game against the Knicks.

Charlotte is a 7.5-point home underdog but there are some things to like about Williams going into the matchup.

New York is 22nd in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, an area where Williams is extremely active.

Williams is third in the NBA in paint touches per game, taking more shots in that area than all players outside of Ivica Zubac.

The 23-year-old is averaging 25.4 points/rebounds this season, which includes a quiet first month. Since Jan. 1, he’s averaging 16.7 points and 11.1 rebounds.

Williams is a steady scorer with big rebounding upside, securing a double-double in eight of his last 10 games.

Key stat: Williams is 6-4 vs. this line over his last 10 games, landing on 24 points/rebounds twice.

Best NBA picks

Quickley over 16.5 points (-121): The Raptors don’t stand much of a chance vs. the Warriors, sitting as a 14-point underdog as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday.

But with RJ Barrett out and Scottie Barnes’ production stalling in March, Quickley should be looking at another solid scoring night.

Toronto’s point guard has scored 15-plus points in 12 of his last 14 games. While 15 doesn’t cash this, he hits that benchmark often and it demonstrates his level of consistency.

Over that stretch, Quickey is 9-5 against this line while averaging 19.9 PPG.

The 25-year-old isn’t trigger-shy and should unload plenty from deep for the tanking Raptors, giving him a shot to put up points in bunches.

Quickley is averaging 2.8 threes/game on 8.0 attempts in March.

NBA prop picks made at 1:59 p.m. ET on 03/20/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 19: Back stars Devin Booker and Luka Doncic on Wednesday night

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker highlights the top NBA prop picks for Wednesday’s busy 11-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Booker has a great matchup against the Chicago Bulls and I expect him to score plenty. I also have plays on Luka Doncic and Devin Vassell.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 19.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Booker over 26.5 points (-125)

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This is a big number and there’s blowout concern.

Phoenix is a 6.5-point favourite, has a pair of 15-plus point wins in its last three games and the Bulls allow the third-most points per game in the NBA.

That said, the Suns give a lot back on the defensive end and have been maddeningly inconsistent this season.

Bradley Beal is also out, taking away the team’s No. 3 scoring option. And when Beal sits, Booker produces more.

Booker is averaging 25.7 PPG, a number that spikes to 28.6, per StatMuse, with Beal on the sidelines (over 20 games).

The Bulls play at the NBA’s third-fastest pace, which could lead to a lot of bucket exchanges between two teams that aren’t great defensively. Tonight’s total (234.5) is among the highest of the slate.

Booker is likely staring down roughly 40 minutes and 20 shot attempts. Several of those jumpers are sure to be from the perimeter (Booker is averaging a career-high 7.6 attempts/game).

The Suns all-star dropped 29 on the Bulls last month, canning four triples.

There’s huge scoring upside here. He’s hit the 35-point mark six times without Beal and all three of his 40-plus-point games have come with his teammate inactive.

Key stat: Booker is 12-8 vs. this line when Beal is out.

Best NBA picks

Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (+108): There’s some solid value here as a plus-money play against the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers star has cleared this line in three of his last four games — the only four he’s played without LeBron James since joining Los Angeles.

Doncic is averaging 10.8 rebounds per game over that stretch and reached the 40-minute mark twice.

He played the Nuggets in his fourth game as a Laker and corralled 10 boards, one of seven times he’s done so in his last 13 games.

Doncic had nine rebounds in a pre-trade meeting against Denver in November and was 3-0 vs. this line in this matchup last season.

Vassell over 2.5 threes (-117): How good has Vassell’s March been?

Take a look:

Stat	2024-25	March
PPG	16.1	19.6
3PM	2.3	3.1
3P%	35.3%	38.7%
FG%	43.7%	47.5%

With Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox both out for the season, the touches and scoring opportunity should remain there for the San Antonio Spurs’ fifth-year guard.

Vassell has attempted at least seven shots from deep in all but one of his 10 March games, clearing this line six times.

There’s little reason to believe he won’t be uncorking against the New York Knicks, who are 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

NBA prop picks made at 12:36 p.m. ET on 03/19/2025.

Dodgers vs. Cubs Tokyo Series prop picks March 19: Back Kyle Tucker in Roki Sasaki’s MLB debut

Tuesday officially kicked off the 2025 baseball season and Wednesday will kick off Roki Sasaki’s MLB career.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers rookie sensation makes his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs to wrap up the Tokyo Series. I don’t have a play on him, but am fading his counterpart Justin Steele. I have a pick on Cubs star outfielder Kyle Tucker, too.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Cubs prop picks for the Wednesday, March 19 game at Tokyo Dome.

Dodgers vs. Cubs prop picks

Best bet: Tucker 1+ RBI (+195)

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Tucker’s debut with the Cubs was a dud. But in fairness, this lineup didn’t perform against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and four Dodgers relievers.

Chicago was held to three hits and none of them came off the bat of Tucker, the Cubs’ prized offseason acquisition.

Tucker is a worthy play as far as I’m concerned to get a hit at -159 (61.39% implied probability).

He hit .289 in a limited 78-game sample last season and had a hit in 68.5% of his games in 2023.

But if you’re not willing to pay that price, this is a great alternative that offers much bigger payout potential.

A +195 price for a No. 3 hitter as talented as Tucker to get an RBI is exceptional value. He’ll have to face Sasaki to start, but the phenom is likely on a super short pitch count and Tucker punishes right-handers.

Forget about his horrible spring (1-for-23), Tucker was third in the majors in RBI from 2021-23, and he had 49 in 78 games last season.

Assuming the Cubs stick with the same lineup against another righty on Wednesday, Tucker will hit behind two solid OBP guys in Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki.

Tucker is one of the best hitters in the game, and you won’t be able to get him anywhere near this price when he’s inevitably clicking during the season.

Key stat: Before last year’s injury-shortened season, Tucker had back-to-back 100-plus RBI seasons for the Houston Astros.

Prop prediction

Steele under 4.5 Ks (-132): The Cubs lefty will have the luxury of avoiding star Mookie Betts but that didn’t help teammate Shota Imanaga on Tuesday.

Imanaga had two Ks over four innings, getting lifted after 69 pitches. He also didn’t face Freddie Freeman (ribs), who indicated he expected to play Wednesday.

In terms of workload, I’d imagine that’s about what we can expect from Steele, who made three spring appearances.

MLB.com lists his pitch counts as follows:

Feb. 22: 2 IP, 28 pitches
Feb. 28: 3 IP, 33 pitches
March 11: 3.2 IP, 62 pitches

That last start, which I’m not putting much stock into, was a 10-hit, seven-run disaster in which he allowed three homers.

It’s super early, the teams have been afforded extra roster spots, leading to greater bullpen resources. And these clubs won’t play another meaningful game for over a week.

Steele is an above-average strikeout arm but he’s unlikely to last long and becomes fade-worthy for me as a result.

Dodgers vs. Cubs prop picks made at 4:55 p.m. ET on 03/18/2025.

Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions March 18: Back Milwaukee on road, Lillard in +300 ticket

We have a marquee showdown between the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: There won’t be a shortage of stars in this one and I’m betting on one of them — Damian Lillard — to deliver. A moneyline pick and an alternative total recommendation round out this same-game parlay.

Check out my +300 Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions for March 18.

Bucks vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Lillard over 21.5 points | Under 233.5 points | Bucks moneyline (+300)

Lillard over 21.5 points (-143): This leg will cash even if Lillard comes in well below his season-scoring average.

The all-star point guard is averaging 25.1 points per game and has 30-plus-point upside on any given night.

When these teams met in February, Lillard dropped 38 points on the Warriors. Mind you, that was with teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo on the sidelines.

Antetokounmpo is probable tonight (as is Lillard), but they’ll catch the Warriors on a back-to-back.

Golden State has been excellent at defending point guards this season, which is why we can get Lillard at a lighter number.

Lillard is 7-2 against this line in March and 9-4 since the break.

NBA SGP legs

Under 233.5 points (-195): This is the longest leg of the ticket, and for good reason.

Since the break, both teams have wielded top-10 defences. Golden State is No. 3 in defensive rating and the Bucks rank seventh.

While this is an imperfect way to assess things, it provides a snapshot of how well each team has limited scoring: The Warriors and Bucks are allowing a combined 220.0 PPG over that stretch.

Only one of Milwaukee’s last six games has cleared this total.

Golden State’s offence has taken off since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, but the Bucks have been comfortably average all season.

Both teams are playing for positioning and the Warriors are trying to avoid the play-in tournament.

I expect the defensive effort to reflect that in what’s a great pre-playoff test for both clubs.

Bucks ML (-143): We could very likely see a key Golden State piece or two sit this one out.

Even if the Warriors deploy a full roster, this is the team’s fourth game in six nights and it’s a difficult second leg of a back-to-back after facing the Denver Nuggets on Monday.

The Bucks have not been a great road team and have struggled against teams over .500.

But they’re 11-6 with a rest advantage, per Team Rankings, and their past 15 games (since losing to the Warriors on Feb. 10) paint a compelling story.

Milwaukee is 10-5 straight up over that stretch.

Among the wins were victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.

Three of the five losses were by three points or fewer. The other two were against the No. 1 seeds in each conference.

The Bucks are playing good ball at a pivotal time in the season.

Bucks vs. Warriors predictions made at 1:44 p.m. ET 03/18/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 18: Back Kawhi Leonard and fade LaMelo Ball on Tuesday night

Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard headlines the top prop picks for Tuesday’s light four-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Leonard is heating up for the surging Clippers and I expect him to stay hot vs. the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers. I also have plays on LaMelo Ball and Cameron Johnson.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 18.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Leonard over 21.5 points (-124)

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The Cavaliers have one of the best defences in the NBA (No. 7 on the season, No. 2 since the break), making this a difficult assignment.

Additionally, Norman Powell, the Clippers’ leading scorer, is back after a month-long absence.

Those two things are worth highlighting but aren’t of great concern to me.

Powell (seven points in 23 minutes in his return Sunday) had a great run while Leonard was injured earlier this season. But I don’t think anyone expects him to pace the Clippers in scoring moving forward.

Leonard is healthy and James Harden is having his best offensive month of the season. Powell’s days of averaging 23.4 PPG are probably over.

That means more for others, and I think Leonard is an obvious beneficiary.

If the oft-injured Leonard didn’t miss two months to start the season, we’re not having a conversation about who the top dog on this team is.

Here’s what matters: Leonard is logging heavy minutes and balling.

Leonard has played 35+ minutes in seven of his last eight games. The one time he came under was in a blowout 35-point win.

He has scored 23+ points in three consecutive and reached the 20-point mark nine times in 11 games out of the break.

The veteran’s two highest-scoring games of the season (33 points, 29 points) have come in March.

Key stat: Leonard is averaging 23.1 points and 2.4 threes over his last 10 games.

Best NBA picks

Ball under 27.5 points (-120): This is a juicy matchup for Ball.

The Atlanta Hawks allow the fourth-most points in the NBA and are 29th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Ball likes to shoot and fires from long range as much as anyone in the league. On top of that, teammate Miles Bridges (25.1 PPG since the break) is out tonight.

The Charlotte Hornets star guard should perform, but this is a huge number I can’t bite on.

With the caveat that he’s been battling injuries, Ball is 1-19 vs. this line over his last 20 games.

He cleared this line in four of his first six games this season, but only four times since the end of December.

Johnson over 16.5 points (-129): Tonight’s matchup against the Boston Celtics won’t do Johnson any favours, but he’ll benefit from the absence of Brooklyn Nets teammate Cam Thomas.

Johnson’s scoring goes up by 3.0 PPG with Thomas out of the lineup, per StatMuse.

He’s 7-1 against this line in his last eight games without Thomas, which includes a 23-point effort vs. the Celtics on March 15.

Johnson has cleared this number in 12 of 17 games since the start of February.

The sharpshooter should be expected to carry a heavy load tonight.

He has logged 35-plus minutes in each of his last three games and takes more than half his shots from distance, converting at a 40.1% clip.

NBA prop picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 03/18/2025.

Grizzlies vs. Kings SGP predictions March 17: Expect Desmond Bane, Domantas Sabonis to deliver offence

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings collide as part of a busy late-night slate in the NBA on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is slipping and should have a hard time slowing Memphis’ offence, which averages an NBA-best 122.7 points per game. Desmond Bane and Domantas Sabonis are featured in this same-game parlay recommendation.

Check out my +335 Grizzlies vs. Kings SGP predictions for March 17.

Grizzlies vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Grizzlies over 117.5 points | Bane 3+ threes | Sabonis 15+ points (+335)

Embed: #111332

Grizzlies over 117.5 points (-121): Memphis is 8-2 against this number in its last 10 games without star point guard Ja Morant, who is out tonight.

The only times the Grizzlies fell short were against the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors, two teams in the top 10 in defensive rating.

Sacramento is 19th in defensive rating and 23rd this month.

Memphis scored 133 points on the Kings the last time these teams played (a 138-133 loss).

Morant’s absence cuts into some upside but the fast-tempo Grizzlies have done well without him and play at the top pace in the NBA.

Memphis has scored 120-plus points in four straight games, while the Kings have allowed 120-plus in three consecutive.

This game has the second-highest total of the night.

NBA SGP legs

Bane 3+ threes (-118): The Grizzlies guard failed to hit this number in the two games he played against the Kings earlier this season but this is a great matchup.

Bane will need to shoulder a bigger load on offence without Morant and the Kings are dreadful at containing the 3-ball.

Sacramento ranks last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Each of the last three teams to face the Kings made 20-plus threes and shot better than 50% from the outside.

Bane has hit this number in three straight games without Morant.

The 26-year-old’s production is down this season and so is his 3-point volume, but Bane is still shooting a solid 38.0% from downtown.

Sabonis 15+ points (-195): Sabonis played on Friday for the first time in two weeks. And while he fell short of this number, it was encouraging to see him log 30 minutes.

The Kings big man scored 17 points in each game against Memphis this season and is averaging 19.4 PPG.

This is a very achievable number for him despite a dip in scoring since De’Aaron Fox was traded.

Excluding a game he was limited to one minute, Sabonis has hit the 15-point mark in 46 of 56 contests.

Grizzlies vs. Kings predictions made at 12:41 p.m. ET 03/17/2025.

Kings vs. Suns SGP predictions March 14: Expect Durant and Beal to deliver in high-scoring game

Friday’s NBA slate ends with a high-stakes game between the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are fighting for a play-in spot in the West and I expect them to deliver scoring in this tilt. I also have plays on Phoenix stars Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.

Check out my Kings vs. Suns +340 SGP predictions for March 14.

Kings vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Over 229.5 points | Durant 2+ threes | Booker 2+ threes | Beal 2+ threes (+340)

Over 232.5 points (-143): Both teams hit overs at a greater than 50% rate.

On no rest, which is what the Kings are facing after surrendering 130 points last night, Sacramento is 8-4 to the over. That 66.7% rate is among the highest in the NBA.

We’re mixing two top-10 offences and one of the worst defences in the NBA (Phoenix is 27th in defensive rating).

The Kings are on the second half of a back-to-back and the Suns have their three leading scorers healthy.

I expect the buckets to flow freely tonight.

The over on this total has hit in three of each team’s last four games.

These teams have played twice this season. The first game saw a total of 245 points and the second game landed on 231.

NBA SGP legs

Durant 2+ threes (-385): The veteran has nailed three-plus threes nine times in his last 15 games.

You could play that at -115 but I’m electing to go a safer route.

Durant is 13-2 vs. this line over that same 15-game stretch, including a 10-2 mark coming out of the break.

The 36-year-old forward is shooting more threes than ever and converting at a 41.2% clip this season.

Against the worst 3-point-defending team in the NBA, Durant should have little trouble getting to this number again.

Booker 2+ threes (-375): I recommended Booker over 2.5 threes in my top prop picks for Friday’s NBA action, but am electing to drop it down one for this SGP.

Like Durant, Booker has gotten to three often lately, which means two has been quite achievable for him.

Booker has canned two-plus threes in 16 of his last 20 games and 72% of his contests this season.

Beal 2+ threes (-134): You notice a theme here?

Beal isn’t as automatic as his teammates but we can get good value here in a plus 3-point-shooting matchup.

When Beal faced the Kings in November, he took double-digit attempts from deep and nailed three.

He has drilled two-plus in more than half of his games and only two teams allow more 3-point attempts than the Kings.

I expect Phoenix, the fourth-best 3-point-shooting team in the NBA, to exploit this tonight and be chucking from long range.

And no players on the Suns are going to have the ball as much — or take more shots — than these three.

Kings vs. Suns predictions made at 3:43 p.m. ET on 03/14/2025.