Chris Toman

Two starting pitchers and Mike Trout make up Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I’m continuing to ride with the slumping Trout and have strikeout plays on Jesus Luzardo and Brandon Pfaadt.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 4.

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Best bet: Luzardo over 5.5 Ks (+102)

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Any pause here would be warranted. The Philadelphia Phillies’ southpaw is up against the MLB-best 8-0 Los Angeles Dodgers, after all.

But here’s why I’m on the over today:

• Luzardo fanned 11 batters in his season debut.

• That followed his final two spring starts in which he punched out six in each outing.

• Luzardo threw 80 pitches in his last spring start and got up to 95 in his Phillies debut. Workload shouldn’t be a concern (though I’m not exactly calling for a deep outing vs. Shohei Ohtani and Co.).

• The Dodgers have an elite lineup but they’ve struck out at close to a league-average rate since the start of last season. There are more difficult assignments on the strikeout market.

Luzardo was hurt last year, limiting him to 66.2 innings, but he appears to be just fine. His average fastball velocity in his dominant victory over the Washington Nationals was 97 mph (per FanGraphs).

That’s elite territory and represents a 1.5 mph jump from last season.

And don’t forget, Luzardo was a big strikeout arm on the rise before his rough 2024 and is just 27 years old.

Key stat: From 2022-23, Luzardo ranked eighth among starters (minimum 250 innings) in K rate at 28.7%.

Best MLB picks

Pfaadt over 5.5 Ks (+100): The Arizona Diamondbacks righty gets the same Nationals team that Luzardo carved up.

Washington was one of the hardest teams in MLB to K last year. So far this season, it is one of the easiest, striking out at the second-highest clip in baseball through six games.

Time will tell whether that’s strictly small-sample noise, but the reality is the Nats are going down on strikes often, and Pfaadt is a good strikeout arm.

He had a solid 24.3 K% in his sophomore 2024 season and fanned five over six strong innings in his 2025 debut.

But there’s also big upside here:

• Pfaadt had four double-digit K games last season.

• He had 12 starts with seven-plus Ks.

• The 26-year-old topped this line in more than 50% of his outings.

Trout over 1.5 total bases (+132): If you’ve been reading our MLB prop piece since the start of the season, you’ll be familiar with this pick and logic.

As long as Trout’s market is priced like this, I’m playing this prop.

Trout is off to a slow start following a scorching spring. And once you get past the decline realization, you can see the former MVP is still a productive power hitter.

As long as Trout is on the field, he should perform. He slugged over .500 the last two seasons, hitting a combined 28 homers in 111 games.

Trout hit a dinger in his last game, his first extra-base hit of the season, and will see Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams to begin tonight’s contest.

There are things to like about Williams — big velocity, solid K numbers, lack of homers — but it’s certainly not enough for me to pass on Trout at this price.

MLB prop picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 04/04/2025.

I have two plays for Thursday’s light MLB slate, including an MLB prop pick on Canadian Josh Naylor.

The pregame narrative: Naylor is set up for a plus matchup at Yankee Stadium tonight. I also like southpaw Nick Lodolo to get his swing-and-miss stuff back on track.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 3.

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Best bet: Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+132)

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The ball has been getting hammered at Yankee Stadium and there’s every reason to believe the Arizona Diamondbacks will do their part to keep that trend alive tonight. 

New York is starting veteran Carlos Carrasco, who has been a punching bag the last two seasons.

• 41 starts
• 6.18 ERA
• 1.54 WHIP
• 1.72 HR/9 rate 

This is a terrible spot for Carrasco to make his Yankee debut. Not only will he be pitching at home, but he’ll be facing the sixth-best offence, by wRC+. 

Carrasco has been clobbered by hitters from both sides of the plate over that abysmal two-year stretch, but Naylor will enjoy the platoon advantage. 

And the slugging first baseman handles right-handed pitching much better. 

Naylor’s OPS vs. RHPs the last three seasons:

.800 | .852 | .856.

He’s swatted 56 of his 68 homers against righties since 2022.

The 27-year-old Canadian is coming off his first 30-homer season and has hit either cleanup or in the No. 5 spot for Arizona. 

Hitting behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte makes Naylor’s RBI prop (+148) a viable play, too.

Key stat: Naylor’s career OPS is 125 points better vs. righties.

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Lodolo over 5.5 Ks (-114): The Cincinnati Reds southpaw has a career 26.8 K% and has fanned batters at a well-above-average rate in each of his three seasons.

He worked six innings in his 2025 debut but came away with a disappointing one strikeout.

The 26-year-old will look for a bounce back tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB through six games.

Milwaukee, which didn’t undergo much roster turnover, struck out above the league-average rate in 2024.

Lodolo, who cleared this line in 12 of 21 starts last season, has shown a good ability to get batters from both sides of the plate out.

He ended spring strong, striking out 13 over his final two outings, and got up to 86 pitches in his season debut. All positives, as was his velocity, which was right in line with his 2024 average.

MLB prop picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 04/03/2025.

Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout headlines Monday’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Trout has been quiet to start the 2025 season, but he’s healthy and enjoys a plus matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. In addition to Trout, I have a play on Fernando Tatis Jr.

Check out how I’m betting on the duo in the best MLB prop bets for Monday, March 31.

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Best bet: Trout over 1.5 total bases (+123)

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I’ve recommended Trout on this market this season and that obviously didn’t cash, evidenced by his one hit (none for extra bases) through three games. 

Two things: I’m not making any overreactions this early. That said, I’ve accepted he’s no longer MVP Trout. 

But Trout remains a huge power threat, leading to great early value on his props. 

He’s been plus money on this market every game of the season. 

I don’t believe Trout should be priced anywhere near this high against a low-strikeout arm in Miles Mikolas, who gave up more contact than any qualified pitcher last season (per FanGraphs). 

Trout tore the cover off the ball in spring (three homers, 1.026 OPS) and hit for power in the limited time he was on the field over the last two seasons (.504 slugging).

Key stat: Mikolas had a 5.35 ERA and bottom 10th percentile K rate over 32 starts last season.

Best MLB picks

Tatis over 0.5 runs (-112): This isn’t the same plus-money value like the Trout recommendation, but consider this a good price for an ultra-dangerous hitter.

Tatis has five runs in four games, hitting .467/.529/.733 over the San Diego Padres’ four-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves. He struck out just once.

The dynamic outfielder is coming off an electric postseason (four homers, 1.500 OPS) and hits leadoff for a deep Padres team.

San Diego has big weapons that follow Tatis, whose Padres see Luis Ortiz of the Cleveland Guardians.

Ortiz had a 3.32 ERA with the Pittsburgh Pirates last season, but his xERA was a full run higher and he’s had below-average K rates over the last two seasons.

The 26-year-old was repeatedly pounded in spring training.

MLB prop picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 03/31/25.

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman and two position players make up Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Gausman makes his 2025 debut and I like him to pitch well against the team that drafted him. I also have plays on Jurickson Profar and Alex Bregman.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Friday, March 28.

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Best bet: Profar over 0.5 runs (+133)

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There’s big value here on Profar, who began his Atlanta Braves career with a 1-for-5 performance and three strikeouts.

He did cross the plate, though, and hit behind some serious mashers. Here’s how the Braves drew up their top-five lineup spots yesterday:

• No. 1: Profar
• No. 2: Austin Riley
• No. 3: Matt Olson
• No. 4: Marcell Ozuna
• No. 5: Ozzie Albies

Riley and Albies homered, and all five recorded a hit.

Profar is coming off the best season of his career (.280/.380/.459) with 24 homers and 94 runs scored.

While he never lived up to his super-hyped prospect billing, Profar has generally always had solid on-base skills, drawing walks at a well-above-average rate and posting a .354 OBP over the last two seasons.

Atlanta sees the San Diego Padres’ Dylan Cease, who has the stuff to shut down a lineup but can be his own worst enemy with free passes.

This is a dangerous Braves lineup, even down Ronald Acuna, that should find itself in hitter’s counts against the Padres right-hander.

Key stat: Atlanta drew six walks yesterday and was eighth in BB% in the second half last season.

Best MLB picks

Bregman 1+ RBI (+160): Bregman is used to hitting in production spots from his time in Houston and this season is no different in Boston. 

The veteran third baseman hit third in his Red Sox debut, slotting behind Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, two high-OBP guys who combined for 198 runs last season. 

Duran’s 111 runs were eighth in the majors. 

The Texas Rangers are starting Jack Leiter, who has struggled with control issues throughout his pro career.

I’m expecting baserunners and for Bregman to find himself in run-producing situations. 

Leiter, one of the club’s top prospects, made the rotation thanks to injuries and a good spring. His second turn in a big league rotation comes after a forgettable 2024. 

• Nine games (six starts)
• 8.83 ERA
• 1.71 WHIP

Gausman over 5.5 Ks (+108): From a velocity and feel-good standpoint, Gausman had a good spring. 

All the right things were said following a down 2024 year that saw him lose ticks on his fastball and suffer a sharp decline in his strikeout rate. 

He pitched through a shoulder issue and said his mechanics were out of whack. Gausman isn’t the first pitcher to experience that or chalk up a bad season to similar factors, but I’m buying into a bounce-back campaign. 

In his first start, Gausman likely isn’t working too deep vs. the Baltimore Orioles, but I’m sure the Blue Jays would love five innings after using five relievers on Opening Day and playing seven straight days to begin the season. 

I like his chances to get to this number with that workload, as Gausman was one of the elite strikeout arms ahead of last season.

• Gausman had the 11th-best K rate among qualified starters from 2021-23.

• Jose Berrios got punished yesterday, but still managed five Ks and 12 swinging strikes over five frames.

This is not a plus-money offering later in the season.

MLB prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 03/28/2025.