Chris Toman

I’m kicking off the new week with MLB prop picks on two starting pitchers and Athletics slugger Brent Rooker.

The pregame narrative: Bryce Elder and Nick Martinez are both struggling ahead of their starts and I expect that trend to continue. As for Rooker, he mashes lefties and gets a super hittable one tonight.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Monday, April 28.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rooker over 1.5 total bases (-115)

 A juicy matchup and a reasonable price make Rooker a no-brainer play. 

The Athletics face Texas Rangers starter Patrick Corbin, a left-handed arm who has been hit as hard as any pitcher over the last several years. 

Rooker makes his living punishing lefties and has upper-tier pop.

Corbin has a respectable 3.77 ERA through three starts, but don’t be fooled: His expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his FIP is an unsightly 5.42. 

The southpaw doesn’t miss enough bats, walks too many batters and his 5.71 ERA from 2021-24 was the highest mark among qualified starters. 

Corbin generally works deep and has gone five-plus innings in his last two starts. That’s a plus here, as that length would give Rooker at least a couple of cracks at him.

Rooker enters the day batting .308/.379/.692 against lefties. His OPS vs. LHPs over the last few seasons: 

• 2025: 1.072
• 2024: .949
• 2023: .874

The Athletics DH is 10th in ISO vs. southpaws over that stretch.

Key stat: Rooker has topped 1.5 bases in 59.3% of his starts, per Team Rankings. That’s third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Corbin Carroll.

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Elder under 4.5 Ks (-110): Elder gets hit often, doesn’t miss bats and he’s at Coors Field tonight. 

I debated whether to fade Elder on his outs or strikeout prop, but I’ve elected to go this route despite the Colorado Rockies having big swing-and-miss tendencies through the first month. 

You could talk yourself into Elder based on the fact that the Rockies have a 67 wRC+ vs. righties and the highest K rate in MLB.

And despite some added power from playing at Coors, their lineup hasn’t performed well at home. 

But I’ve talked myself out of Elder for these reasons: 

• He’s in the bottom 10th percentile among starters in strikeout and whiff rate. 

• Elder has worked 6.0 innings twice in four starts but hasn’t topped four Ks this season.

• Only eight pitchers among 138 who have thrown 20+ innings have a lower K% than Elder (13.0).

• Elder is posting a career-low K rate and has been below league average in all four seasons.

• He has a 5.57 ERA, a season after posting a mark of 6.52.

Martinez under 17.5 outs (-127): The Cincinnati Reds right-hander is 0-4 against this line since working 6.0 innings in his season-opening start.

He’s at home tonight at the unforgiving Great American Ball Park.

Martinez has surrendered four runs in both home outings, and his ERA was nearly two full runs higher at home last season (4.00 vs. 2.18).

The St. Louis Cardinals have had an above-average offence vs. righties (108 wRC+), are top 10 in walk rate and only two teams have struck out at a lower rate.

Cincinnati got 13 innings out of its starters the last two days and was off Thursday, so bullpen fatigue shouldn’t be a big concern here.

This is not the matchup to expect a deep outing from Martinez (5.40 ERA).

MLB prop picks made at 12:01 p.m. ET on 04/28/2025.

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer and Atlanta Braves starter Chris Sale highlight Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Springer should deliver in a juicy matchup vs. the New York Yankees and I’m not shying away from Sale, who faces a tough challenge against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I also have a play on Tyler Soderstrom.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 25.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Springer over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Toronto’s offence is abysmal. 

The Blue Jays were held to two runs over a three-game sweep to the Houston Astros in their most recent series and rank 25th in MLB in runs per game. 

Nearly every player is underperforming in the power department, but Springer isn’t one of them. 

The veteran is off to a sizzling start following the worst season of his career. 

He’s in the 80th percentile or better in several key hitting metrics, per Baseball Savant, and has been Toronto’s best hitter through the first month. 

The Blue Jays’ offence is presented with a good opportunity to bounce back in the Bronx against Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco. 

The 38-year-old has a 6.53 ERA through five appearances (four starts) after two horrific seasons. Carrasco put up a 6.18 ERA and 1.54 WHIP from 2023-24, a span of 41 starts. 

He doesn’t miss bats anymore, and his home park won’t do him any favours. 

While Springer hasn’t had great success against Carrasco (.589 OPS in 26 career plate appearances), he has seen him plenty and will be familiar with his diminished repertoire. 

At a good hitter’s park, Springer is a Blue Jay worth targeting. 

Key stat: Springer has topped 1.5 total bases in 63.2% of his starts, according to Team Rankings. That’s second in MLB to Aaron Judge.

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Sale over 5.5 Ks (-143): The Diamondbacks were the fourth-most difficult team in the majors to retire on strikes last year. 

This year, they have the second-lowest K rate and by far the lowest vs. left-handed pitchers. 

But Sale isn’t like most pitchers, and there won’t be many times this season to get him at this price on a 5.5 K line. 

• Sale led all starters with a 32.1 K% last season (10% better than league average). 

• The southpaw was at 29.4% in 2023 and comes into tonight with a 29.1% K rate. 

Sale is elite at missing bats and has cleared this line in three of five starts despite going no more than five innings. The two times he fell short were five-strikeout outings.

Soderstrom over 0.5 RBI (+138): The 23-year-old enters tonight with a .970 OPS and is tied for the MLB lead with nine homers.

Soderstrom plays at what’s been a hitter-friendly environment (Sutter Health Park) and bats third behind two good bats in Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker.

As of early Friday afternoon, Butler is -152 to score and Rooker is -162.

Soderstrom’s Athletics face righty Sean Burke and the Chicago White Sox tonight. Burke got the Athletics two starts ago, allowing six hits, five runs and a pair of homers.

One of those bombs was to Soderstrom, who’s demolishing right-handers: .319/.398/.694, eight HR.

MLB prop picks made at 1:14 p.m. ET on 04/25/2025.

Two starting pitchers and Dylan Crews make up Thursday’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Crews is getting hot and worth a play in a plus matchup. As for the SPs, I’m fading Corbin Burnes and backing Tyler Anderson.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 24.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Burnes under 5.5 Ks (-143)

The right-hander’s strikeout rate dropped off last season and it’s taken an even sharper dive through the first month of the season. 

Burnes isn’t far removed from a league-best 243 Ks in 2022, but he does seem far removed from being able to produce punchouts at that rate. 

His K% since that career-best mark isn’t pretty: 

• 2022: 30.5%
• 2023: 25.5%
• 2024: 23.1%
• 2025: 18.5% 

There’s time for the 30-year-old to turn things around, as he did in the final month last season, but this trend is far from encouraging.

Through four starts, 70% of the league has a better K rate than him, and 80% are producing more whiffs, per Baseball Savant. 

Tonight’s matchup is a tough one for Burnes, too.

The Tampa Bay Rays have struck out at a below-average rate versus right-handers, and they are punishing them. 

Only two teams have been better offensively against righties, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, and the Rays’ .275 batting average vs. RHPs is tops in MLB.

Key stat: Burnes punched out eight in his season debut, but has recorded exactly three strikeouts in each of his three starts since.

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Best MLB picks

Anderson over 17.5 outs (-106): The Los Angeles Angels southpaw has a favourable matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Anderson has allowed no runs with back-to-back six-strikeout performances over his last two starts. Taking him to get six again is enticing as a plus-money play against a team that struggles vs. LHPs. 

But taking the over on his outs prop is the way I’m going. Anderson is 1-3 against this line, but his two longest outings have come in his last two starts. 

He cleared this in just over 50% of his outings in 2024 (he topped 5.5 Ks in 26%, for context), and the Pirates rank last in the NL in ISO. 

Only five teams have been worse offensively vs. lefties, per wRC+, and Pittsburgh is near the bottom in walk rate.

That’s especially important as Anderson has walked multiple batters in all four starts.

Crews over 1.5 total bases (+112): Things are finally moving in the right direction for Crews.

The 2023 No. 2 overall pick and consensus top-end prospect got his first taste of the bigs last season and enters tonight as a .209/.264/.342 hitter over 52 MLB games.

He went hitless in his first five games this year and was slugging .106 just 10 days ago. While still rough, it’s up to .325 now.

Crews has hit safely in eight straight, batting .333/.355/.667 with three home runs over that stretch.

With a platoon advantage, he’ll see a juicy matchup when his Washington Nationals take on Cade Povich and the Baltimore Orioles.

Right-handers are hitting .397/.453/.632 vs. the southpaw, who has allowed 30 hits in four starts and sports a 6.38 ERA.

Povich’s splits weren’t as pronounced in his rookie 2024 year, but his OPS was still 100+ points higher vs. RHBs.

MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 04/24/2025.

Oneil Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. highlight Wednesday’s top MLB prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I like both to clear their total bases prop in juicy matchups, and I also have a play on Lawrence Butler to close out the 15-game slate.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 23.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Cruz over 1.5 total bases (+106)

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The 26-year-old has stark splits. If he’s facing a southpaw, I’m likely to look the other way. 

Against a right-hander, though, the Pittsburgh Pirates centrefielder has my attention. 

• 2025: .998 OPS vs. RHP; .441 vs. LHP
• Career: .829 OPS vs. RHP; .614 vs. LHP

Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has had no swing-and-miss ability at the MLB level. 

He has struck out 9.9% of the batters he’s faced over 15 starts since making his debut last year.

The league-average rate for starters was 22% in 2024 and is again this season. Cruz has K issues, so Kochanowicz’s lack of strikeouts helps offset contact concerns.

After Kochanowicz, the Pirates’ leadoff man will face an Angels bullpen that’s not formidable. 

Los Angeles relievers rank last in the AL with a 5.45 ERA and sport the third-highest HR/9 rate in MLB.

Key stat: Cruz has topped this line in five of his last eight games, raising his slugging from .391 to .486.

Best MLB picks

Butler over 0.5 runs (-117): Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home, has been the second-most hitter-friendly stadium in MLB (according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors) so far. 

Butler is hitting for average, drawing walks at a high clip and striking out at a well-below average rate. 

He’s the leadoff man for the Athletics and has some thump behind him, including Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom, who leads MLB with nine homers.

Here are Butler’s numbers compared to MLB’s league-average rates: 

• BB%: 13.1 (9.2)
• K%: 16.2 (21.8)
• AVG: .279 (.240)

Butler is a threat to run, too, and get into scoring position if he gets on base, swiping 18 bags in 2024 and five through 23 games this season. 

The Texas Rangers are deploying Kumar Rocker, who has been disappointing, particularly his inability to miss bats (14 Ks through four starts, eight of which came in his last outing). 

Rocker is a big prospect who excelled in his limited time in the minors, but the 25-year-old is far from a high-end big league arm at this stage.

Witt over 1.5 total bases (-132): This isn’t a price I venture into often on a total bases prop, but I love the matchup for Witt.

The Kansas City Royals line up with German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies, who are an MLB-worst 4-18 and allowing the second-most runs per game (5.59).

Colorado’s bullpen ranks 30th in MLB with a 5.16 FIP.

Marquez, who barely pitched the last two years, had a good first start but has proceeded to do this:

• April 5 vs. ATH: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 3 K
• April 11 vs. SD: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 3 K
• April 16 vs. LAD: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 1 K

Witt has cleared this line in more than half of his games — only seven players have done so more frequently — and he recorded two-plus bases at the second-best clip last season (per Team Rankings).

The Royals star has logged at least one hit in 22 of his 24 games this season.

MLB prop picks made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 04/23/2025.

Three power bats make up the top MLB prop picks for Tuesday’s 15-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I have total bases plays on sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Mike Trout, and am closing out the night with a recommendation on Brent Rooker.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 22.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+138)

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Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies will see New York starter Griffin Canning, who has pitched fine (3.43 ERA, 1.33 FIP, big K% spike) through four starts with the Mets. 

But keep this in mind before buying in: Canning had a 4.96 ERA over 70 games (66 starts) in his last three seasons with the Los Angeles Angels. 

He routinely got punished by the long ball and left-handed batters did a number on him last season, hitting .272/.352/.479. 

The lefty power-hitting Schwarber has fared better versus southpaws early on and did last year as well, but I’m not discounting the platoon advantage he’ll enjoy. 

And Schwarber has been bashing the ball to start the year: 

• .268/.417/.561
• 7 home runs
• 46 total bases 

The veteran leads the Phillies in slugging, OPS, homers and total bases. 

Weather reports have the ball blowing out to right field at Citi Field tonight, which means to Schwarber’s pull side. Against a pitcher prone to home runs, this looks like a nice spot to back the 32-year-old.

Key stat: Since 2023, only two hitters have pulled the ball more often than Schwarber, according to FanGraphs.

Best MLB picks

Rooker over 0.5 RBI (+116): I don’t love Rooker’s prices, but he’s a must-play for me in a plus matchup.

The Athletics will see Patrick Corbin, among the most hittable starters in baseball for years.

Corbin is coming off a strong performance against the Angels but pitched poorly in his Texas Rangers debut, and he entered the season with an ERA north of 5.00 in four consecutive years.

He posted below-average K rates over that stretch and struggled to keep the ball in the yard. The biggest value Corbin has supplied in recent years is his ability to eat innings, which is another plus here.

The longer Corbin is out there tonight, the better. Rooker punishes lefties: 

• 2025: .294/.333/.765
• 2024: .289/.362/.587
• 2023: .279/.354/.519

Hitting out of the No. 2 spot isn’t the most ideal position to cash runs, but Rooker can drive himself in (six homers after a career-best 39 last year) and has Lawrence Butler and his .372 OBP ahead of him. 

Trout over 1.5 total bases (+117): Trout has been disappointing, outside of his power. But power is what we’re counting on here.

The three-time MVP is batting .184 and striking out a lot, but is slugging .513 with a .329 ISO and eight home runs.

He’s top 10 in ISO, and only two players have hit more homers.

Trout will see a soft-tossing lefty who doesn’t miss bats in Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bailey Falter, who will then turn it over to a bullpen with one of the lowest K rates in MLB.

MLB prop picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET on 04/22/2025.

I have three prop picks for Monday night’s light MLB slate, which features seven games.

The pregame narrative: I expect Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer to stay hot and have plays on William Contreras and Robbie Ray for the last game of the night.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 21.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Meyer over 17.5 outs (-115)

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The Cincinnati Reds have scored five-plus runs in four straight and are coming off a 24-run game on Sunday. Their bats are unquestionably hot.

But so, too, is the starting pitcher they’ll be up against tonight.

Meyer has been dealing, and his last two starts have come against the first-place New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks (third in MLB in runs per game).

• Meyer has allowed three runs or fewer in all four starts.

• The righty has gone six-plus innings in three consecutive outings.

• He has career-best strikeout and walk rates.

Meyer has had the best slider in baseball, per Baseball Savant’s run value metric. He’s producing a 47.1% whiff rate on the pitch, a top-10 mark in baseball.

That pitch has been nearly unhittable and effective against both lefties and righties. Via FanGraphs’ Statcast leaderboard, Cincinnati has handled sliders at a bottom-10 rate.

Miami is in a stretch of games in nine consecutive days, and it hasn’t gotten more than five innings from a starter since Meyer’s last turn in the rotation.

The club’s bullpen could use a break and Meyer has the ability to deliver on that.

Key stat: Meyer has recorded at least 17 outs in seven of his last nine starts dating back to 2024.

Best MLB picks

Contreras to score (+140): The Brewers catcher is off to a slow start, but is getting on base at a strong clip. 

Contreras enters tonight’s matchup with a .341 on-base percentage and career-best 14.8% walk rate. 

At least to start tonight’s game, he’ll face an erratic Ray. 

The San Francisco Giants starter has struggled with control issues during his career, and this season is no different. 

Ray has walked 14 batters over his last three starts, issuing at least four free passes each time out. 

The southpaw can get by with his swing-and-miss stuff, so the worry is that he can carve up a struggling Brewers lineup (94 wRC+) and keep runs off the board. 

That’s why I’m targeting Contreras, Milwaukee’s No. 3 hitter, over other Brewers players. 

Contreras is a high OBP guy with pop who has hit lefties to the tune of a career 155 wRC+. He’s a good bet to get on base against Ray via hit or walk.

Ray under 16.5 outs (-120): Speaking of Ray, he’s a fade for me tonight.

The Giants haven’t had an off day since April 10, but their starters have been giving them innings.

Each starter over the club’s weekend three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels went at least six innings. And the game before that, Jordan Hicks went seven frames.

So I’m less concerned about an overworked bullpen the same way I am with Miami.

Ray is 1-3 against this number through four starts. He made seven starts last season and cleared it twice.

As mentioned, Ray can pile up Ks, but that also drives up pitch counts like his poor control does. And he’s always suffered from home run issues.

In his 11 starts with the Giants since last year, he has a 14% walk rate and 1.80 HR/9 rate. If he had enough innings to qualify, those would both be the highest marks in MLB over that stretch.

MLB prop picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 04/21/2025.