Chris Toman

Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.

Best MLB prop bets May 7: Back Rangers Smith, Mahle and Detroit’s Torkelson and McKinstry

MLB prop bets

We’re treated to all-day baseball on Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: You can find excellent prices on Detroit Tigers hitters for tonight’s game at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. I’m targeting a pair of them and also have picks on two Texas Rangers.

My best MLB prop bets for May 7 feature plays on Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry, Josh Smith and Tyler Mahle.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Torkelson over 1.5 total bases (+125)

I recommended this play yesterday, but the game was postponed. The reasoning today, though, remains the same.

Torkelson enters this plus matchup as the team leader in: 

  • Home runs: 10
  • Total bases: 67
  • OPS: .889 
  • ISO: .306 (7th in MLB)

Torkelson has topped this line in 50% of his starts this season, according to Team Rankings. Like most, he thrives with a platoon advantage, but he has handled right-handed pitching well (five homers, .825 OPS).

Rookie Chase Dollander gets the ball for the Rockies. The right-hander has a 6.48 ERA through five starts, allowing four-plus runs in three of those outings.

Dollander has surrendered eight homers, six of which have come at Coors.

Key stat: Only 11 players have more extra-base hits than Torkelson’s 18.

Best MLB picks

McKinstry over 0.5 runs (-112): McKinstry leads the Tigers with a .375 on-base percentage. He’s bounced around the lineup a bit but has settled in at No. 2/3 in a lot of recent games.

That would obviously be a terrific spot for him and put him in front of Torkelson and Riley Greene, two of Detroit’s best power bats. 

Regardless of where he slots, McKinstry should be surrounded by good bats in a run-producing environment.

Following Dollander, who has walked two-plus batters in four straight outings, is an erratic Rockies bullpen that lacks swing and miss.

McKinstry has crossed the plate in 53.1% of his games, a top-15 mark in MLB. 

Rangers MLB prop picks

Smith over 0.5 runs (-125): Smith, the team leader in runs, is batting leadoff for the Rangers, who face Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox tonight.

Houck has thrown well in both home starts this season but has otherwise been obliterated, including his first outing of the season vs. Texas.

The righty has especially pitched poorly vs. left-handed batters, which Smith is.

Smith has particularly punished right-handers and hits in front of the club’s best bat — fellow LHB Corey Seager.

  • Houck vs. LHBs: .342/.418/.608
  • Smith vs. RHPs: .352/.418/.563

Six of the seven homers Houck has allowed have been to lefties.

Mahle over 4.5 Ks (-143): The right-hander only has 196.2 innings on his arm since 2022, but his numbers have generally been impressive:

  • 3.66 ERA (3.64 FIP)
  • 1.16 WHIP
  • .221 BA
  • 24.3 K% (8.97 K/9)

Mahle has given the Rangers surprising innings early on, working six-plus frames in four of his last five starts.

He turned in a clunker vs. Boston in his season debut but topped this line in three of six starts since. The 30-year-old had four Ks two of the times he fell short.

Boston has hit right-handers for power, but that’s come with a lot of swing and miss, too. The Red Sox have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB vs. RHPs.

MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 05/07/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 7: Back Rangers Smith, Mahle and Detroit’s Torkelson and McKinstry

MLB prop bets

We’re treated to all-day baseball on Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: You can find excellent prices on Detroit Tigers hitters for tonight’s game at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. I’m targeting a pair of them and also have picks on two Texas Rangers.

My best MLB prop bets for May 7 feature plays on Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry, Josh Smith and Tyler Mahle.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Torkelson over 1.5 total bases (+128)

I recommended this play yesterday, but the game was postponed. The reasoning today, though, remains the same.

Torkelson enters this plus matchup as the team leader in: 

  • Home runs: 10
  • Total bases: 67
  • OPS: .889 
  • ISO: .306 (7th in MLB)

Torkelson has topped this line in 50% of his starts this season, according to Team Rankings. Like most, he thrives with a platoon advantage, but he has handled right-handed pitching well (five homers, .825 OPS).

Rookie Chase Dollander gets the ball for the Rockies. The right-hander has a 6.48 ERA through five starts, allowing four-plus runs in three of those outings.

Dollander has surrendered eight homers, six of which have come at Coors.

Key stat: Only 11 players have more extra-base hits than Torkelson’s 18.

Embed: #113528

Best MLB picks

McKinstry over 0.5 runs (-113): The value was slightly better at -106 yesterday, but this is still highly playable.

McKinstry leads the Tigers with a .375 on-base percentage. He’s bounced around the lineup a bit but has settled in at No. 2/3 in a lot of recent games.

That would obviously be a terrific spot for him and put him in front of Torkelson and Riley Greene, two of Detroit’s best power bats. 

Regardless of where he slots, McKinstry should be surrounded by good bats in a run-producing environment.

Following Dollander, who has walked two-plus batters in four straight outings, is an erratic Rockies bullpen that lacks swing and miss.

McKinstry has crossed the plate in 53.1% of his games, a top-15 mark in MLB. 

Rangers MLB prop picks

Smith over 0.5 runs (+102): This is a great number that’s unlikely to stay plus money the way it’s being priced elsewhere.

Smith, the team leader in runs, is batting leadoff for the Rangers, who face Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox tonight.

Houck has thrown well in both home starts this season but has otherwise been obliterated, including his first outing of the season vs. Texas.

The righty has especially pitched poorly vs. left-handed batters, which Smith is.

Smith has particularly punished right-handers and hits in front of the club’s best bat — fellow LHB Corey Seager.

  • Houck vs. LHBs: .342/.418/.608
  • Smith vs. RHPs: .352/.418/.563

Six of the seven homers Houck has allowed have been to lefties.

Mahle over 4.5 Ks (-129): The right-hander only has 196.2 innings on his arm since 2022, but his numbers have generally been impressive:

  • 3.66 ERA (3.64 FIP)
  • 1.16 WHIP
  • .221 BA
  • 24.3 K% (8.97 K/9)

Mahle has given the Rangers surprising innings early on, working six-plus frames in four of his last five starts.

He turned in a clunker vs. Boston in his season debut but topped this line in three of six starts since. The 30-year-old had four Ks two of the times he fell short.

Boston has hit right-handers for power, but that’s come with a lot of swing and miss, too. The Red Sox have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB vs. RHPs.

MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 05/07/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 6: Back slugger Tyler Soderstrom and Detroit’s Torkelson, McKinstry

MLB prop bets

It’s a busy Tuesday in MLB, with 16 games on the loaded schedule.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Some poor weather conditions are expected in Colorado tonight, but that’s not enough for me to pass on good prices on good hitters at Coors Field. I’m also targeting Athletics slugger Tyler Soderstrom.

Check out the best May 6 MLB prop bets on Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry and Soderstrom.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Torkelson over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Rain is in the forecast all day, but the heavier stuff is supposed to take place ahead of the game, which projects to have a first-pitch temperature below 10 degrees Celsius. 

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s focus on the good.

Detroit’s Torkelson enters tonight’s game as the team leader in: 

  • Home runs: 10
  • Total bases: 67
  • OPS: .889 
  • ISO: .306 (6th in MLB)

Torkelson has topped this line in 50% of his starts this season, according to Team Rankings, and is handling right-handed pitching just fine despite better production with the platoon advantage. 

Colorado is starting right-hander Chase Dollander. The rookie has a 6.48 ERA over five starts, allowing four-plus runs in three of those outings and a total of eight homers. 

Six of those bombs have been surrendered at home, where he’ll be tonight at the most hitter-friendly park in the bigs. 

Key stat: Only 10 players have more extra-base hits than Torkelson’s 18.

Embed: #113477

Best MLB picks

McKinstry over 0.5 runs (-106): Sticking with the Tigers, I really like the value on this one tonight. 

There are other intriguing plus-money options, as this game has several viable plays. But I like McKinstry to score just as much as the Torkelson best bet. 

McKinstry leads the Tigers with a .375 on-base percentage and projects to bat No. 3 in Detroit’s lineup, per Rotowire. 

That likely puts him ahead of Torkelson and Riley Greene, two of Detroit’s best power bats. 

Dollander has struggled with control, walking two-plus batters in four straight outings, giving McKinstry a good scoring outlook.

Even if the Tigers can’t solve Dollander, they’ll get a Rockies bullpen that has the third-highest walk rate in MLB and sixth-lowest K rate. 

Detroit should have plenty of scoring chances tonight, and McKinstry has crossed the plate in 53.1% of his games, a top-12 mark in MLB. 

Soderstrom over 1.5 total bases (+120): Soderstrom’s massive power outburst has slowed down, as he hasn’t hit a home run since April 17.

But he still enters the night with an .859 OPS and terrific numbers against right-handed pitching.

  • The left-handed hitting Soderstrom has hit eight of his nine homers vs. RHPs.
  • Soderstrom is slugging .549 vs. righties with a .917 OPS compared to marks of .412/.676 vs. LHPs.

The Athletics are at their hitter-friendly home park and will see Seattle Mariners righty Emerson Hancock to start tonight’s game.

Hancock has been demolished this season. Lefty batters are hitting .353 against him, and overall, opponents enter with a .347/.388/.520 line.

The Athletics’ Sutter Health Park has been the No. 1 offensive environment in baseball this season, per Baseball Savant.

MLB prop picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 05/06/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 1: Bet on Minnesota bigs Gobert and Randle

Warriors vs. Timberwolves picks

The Golden State Warriors survived the Houston Rockets in seven games to set up a daunting showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota handled business in the opening round, taking down Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers in five games. Golden State almost let a 3-1 lead slip away and enters this second-round matchup as a +155 underdog to advance.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 1 prop picks for Tuesday, May 6, featuring plays on Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Gobert over 10.5 rebounds (-118)

Gobert’s first round was interesting to say the least. He turned in four duds before playing the role of hero in Game 5. 

  • The veteran torched the Lakers for 27 points and 24 rebounds.
  • His point production was more than he’d had in the previous four games combined. He grabbed a total of 25 rebounds in Games 1-4 of that series.
  • Gobert never touched the 30-minute mark in Games 1-4 before logging 39 in the closeout game. 

So what can we expect from him in Game 1? It’s hard not to believe Gobert bought himself some goodwill with his series-clinching performance. 

The Warriors are an interesting matchup for Gobert and the Timberwolves, as any Golden State lineup will be undersized.

Golden State’s most common five-man lineups in the opening round saw the 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre. So the Warriors will give up plenty of size with the 7-foot-1 Gobert on the court. 

Minnesota can either go big with Gobert and achieve a likely edge on the boards or go a smaller, more athletic route to match up better with Golden State.

My best guess is the Timberwolves go somewhere in the middle, ensuring enough minutes for Gobert to have a big game on the glass. 

While Gobert doesn’t have the offensive upside to secure the same minutes as Alperen Sengun, we just saw the Rockets centre torch the Warriors in the first round. 

  • Sengun averaged 11.9 boards in the series, hauling in 14+ three times. 
  • Gobert is the best rebounder in this series, averaging 10.9/game in the regular season.

Key stat: Gobert had 10-plus rebounds in three of four games vs. Golden State this season (averaging 10.5 in the head-to-head).

Game 1 prop prediction

Randle over 27.5 points/rebounds (-112): Randle is another player who can benefit from Golden State’s small-ball lineups.

He doesn’t have the same size as Gobert. But at 6-foot-9, there will likely be stretches when he’s the tallest player on the court.

Randle only averaged 5.2 boards in the Lakers series, but he was a beast offensively and has more rebounding upside than that.

  • The 30-year-old averaged 7.1 RPG in the regular season.
  • Randle averaged 8.3 rebounds in four games vs. Golden State this season.
  • He averaged at least 9.0 RPG in five straight seasons coming into this year.

After a 16-point, five-rebound Game 1 against Los Angeles, Randle cleared this line in four straight. He averaged 38.0 minutes in the series, scoring 25-plus points twice.

Randle’s 22.6 PPG scoring average in the Lakers series was second on Minnesota to Anthony Edwards (26.8).

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 11:58 a.m. ET 05/06/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 1: Bet on Minnesota bigs Gobert and Randle

Warriors vs. Timberwolves picks

The Golden State Warriors survived the Houston Rockets in seven games to set up a daunting showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota handled business in the opening round, taking down Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers in five games. Golden State almost let a 3-1 lead slip away and enters this second-round matchup as a +155 underdog to advance.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 1 prop picks for Tuesday, May 6, featuring plays on Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Gobert over 10.5 rebounds (-120)

Gobert’s first round was interesting to say the least. He turned in four duds before playing the role of hero in Game 5. 

  • The veteran torched the Lakers for 27 points and 24 rebounds.
  • His point production was more than he’d had in the previous four games combined. He grabbed a total of 25 rebounds in Games 1-4 of that series.
  • Gobert never touched the 30-minute mark in Games 1-4 before logging 39 in the closeout game. 

So what can we expect from him in Game 1? It’s hard not to believe Gobert bought himself some goodwill with his series-clinching performance. 

The Warriors are an interesting matchup for Gobert and the Timberwolves, as any Golden State lineup will be undersized.

Golden State’s most common five-man lineups in the opening round saw the 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre. So the Warriors will give up plenty of size with the 7-foot-1 Gobert on the court. 

Minnesota can either go big with Gobert and achieve a likely edge on the boards or go a smaller, more athletic route to match up better with Golden State.

My best guess is the Timberwolves go somewhere in the middle, ensuring enough minutes for Gobert to have a big game on the glass. 

While Gobert doesn’t have the offensive upside to secure the same minutes as Alperen Sengun, we just saw the Rockets centre torch the Warriors in the first round. 

  • Sengun averaged 11.9 boards in the series, hauling in 14+ three times. 
  • Gobert is the best rebounder in this series, averaging 10.9/game in the regular season.

Key stat: Gobert had 10-plus rebounds in three of four games vs. Golden State this season (averaging 10.5 in the head-to-head).

Embed: #113463

Game 1 prop prediction

Randle over 27.5 points/rebounds (-113): Randle is another player who can benefit from Golden State’s small-ball lineups.

He doesn’t have the same size as Gobert. But at 6-foot-9, there will likely be stretches when he’s the tallest player on the court.

Randle only averaged 5.2 boards in the Lakers series, but he was a beast offensively and has more rebounding upside than that.

  • The 30-year-old averaged 7.1 RPG in the regular season.
  • Randle averaged 8.3 rebounds in four games vs. Golden State this season.
  • He averaged at least 9.0 RPG in five straight seasons coming into this year.

After a 16-point, five-rebound Game 1 against Los Angeles, Randle cleared this line in four straight. He averaged 38.0 minutes in the series, scoring 25-plus points twice.

Randle’s 22.6 PPG scoring average in the Lakers series was second on Minnesota to Anthony Edwards (26.8).

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 11:58 a.m. ET 05/06/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 5: Fade Seattle’s Bryce Miller, back sluggers James Wood and Oneil Cruz

MLB prop bets

I’m kicking off the new MLB week with two prop picks for the 10-game slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Pittsburgh Pirates stud Oneil Cruz rakes with a platoon advantage and has one tonight against Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 5, which includes a best bet on Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Miller under 15.5 outs (-108)

Miller had minuscule walk rates in his first two seasons, but he’s been unable to find the zone this year. 

Only two pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings have a higher walk rate than Miller (14.7%), whose BB% was 5.7 from 2023-24. 

The righty has walked multiple batters every start this season and nine over his last two outings. 

He’s been able to limit damage via strikeouts and by keeping the ball in the yard, but Miller’s tightrope act is sure to lead to more blowups until he corrects his control.

Tonight’s matchup isn’t a great one for him.

  • The Athletics have been a top 10 offence by wRC+.
  • Their home stadium has been the second-most hitter-friendly venue, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
  • Seattle’s division rival has been walking at a respectable clip and striking out well-below average, sporting the fifth-lowest K rate in MLB. 

The Mariners are off this Thursday and were off last Thursday. Since then, they got six-plus innings in back-to-back starts and only needed two relievers yesterday. 

Their bullpen should start this series in good shape. 

Key stat: Miller has gone under this line in four consecutive starts. 

Best MLB picks

Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-110): The price is a bit steep, but this is a perfect matchup to target Cruz in. 

He faces St. Louis Cardinals starter Mikolas, an arm prone to contact who doesn’t miss bats. 

Mikolas has 17 Ks over six starts. He has the top contact rate among pitchers over the last three seasons, meaning a well-above average number of balls are put in play against him.

Cruz ambushes right-handers, clobbering seven of his eight homers against them.

Check out Cruz’s MLB ranks, via FanGraphs, vs. RHPs: 

  • Hard-hit rate: 54.7% (1st)
  • ISO: .338 (8th) 
  • OPS: 1.028 (11th) 

MLB prop picks made at 12:58 p.m. ET on 05/05/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 5: Fade Seattle’s Bryce Miller, back sluggers James Wood and Oneil Cruz

MLB prop bets

I’m kicking off the new MLB week with three prop picks for the 10-game slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Washington Nationals stud James Wood comes into Monday on fire and there’s big value on the 22-year-old to continue mashing. Oneil Cruz rakes with a platoon advantage and has one tonight.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 5, which includes a best bet on Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Miller under 15.5 outs (-103)

Miller had minuscule walk rates in his first two seasons, but he’s been unable to find the zone this year. 

Only two pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings have a higher walk rate than Miller (14.7%), whose BB% was 5.7 from 2023-24. 

The righty has walked multiple batters every start this season and nine over his last two outings. 

He’s been able to limit damage via strikeouts and by keeping the ball in the yard, but Miller’s tightrope act is sure to lead to more blowups until he corrects his control.

Tonight’s matchup isn’t a great one for him.

  • The Athletics have been a top 10 offence by wRC+.
  • Their home stadium has been the second-most hitter-friendly venue, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
  • Seattle’s division rival has been walking at a respectable clip and striking out well-below average, sporting the fifth-lowest K rate in MLB. 

The Mariners are off this Thursday and were off last Thursday. Since then, they got six-plus innings in back-to-back starts and only needed two relievers yesterday. 

Their bullpen should start this series in good shape. 

Key stat: Miller has gone under this line in four consecutive starts. 

Embed: #113436

Best MLB picks

Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-125): The price is a bit steep, but this is a perfect matchup to target Cruz in. 

He faces St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, an arm prone to contact who doesn’t miss bats. 

Mikolas has 17 Ks over six starts. He has the top contact rate among pitchers over the last three seasons, meaning a well-above average number of balls are put in play against him.

Cruz ambushes right-handers, clobbering seven of his eight homers against them.

Check out Cruz’s MLB ranks, via FanGraphs, vs. RHPs: 

  • Hard-hit rate: 54.7% (1st)
  • ISO: .338 (8th) 
  • OPS: 1.028 (11th) 

Wood over 1.5 total bases (+132): The sophomore slugger has been tearing the cover off the ball but can still be had at big plus-money prices on this prop most nights. 

Wood enters the day with nine homers and a .273/.381/.545 batting line. 

He’s top 15 in the majors in home runs and OPS, producing well-above-average offence (157 wRC+) primarily out of the No. 2/3 spots in Washington’s lineup. 

Wood has been particularly dangerous at home with a 1.027 OPS.

Wood’s Nationals host Luis Ortiz and the Cleveland Guardians, whose bullpen has thrown the third-most innings in MLB over the last two weeks. 

Cleveland has played 10 days in a row, including a doubleheader, so fatigue is a concern with this group tonight.

MLB prop picks made at 12:58 p.m. ET on 05/05/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 29: Back hitters Raleigh and Albies, fade Boston’s Crochet

MLB prop bets

It’s a busy Tuesday night in MLB with all 30 teams scheduled to play, and I have three prop picks for the action.

The pregame narrative: Cal Raleigh leads MLB in homers and is in a great spot to continue his damage tonight. Garrett Crochet has a juicy matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, but I think he’s fade-worthy on a certain prop.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 29, which includes a play on Ozzie Albies.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Raleigh over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Raleigh is top 10 in the majors in total bases and slugging to accompany his MLB-best 10 homers. 

The switch-hitting catcher is a power bat with a lot of swing and miss who does his damage vs. right-handed pitching. 

And that’s exactly why I like him to deliver on this prop tonight. 

Raleigh’s Seattle Mariners get Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, a righty with a 5.47 ERA and 13 Ks over five starts. 

Kochanowicz’s 11.4 K% is the third-lowest mark among pitchers (minimum 20 innings).

Lefties are hitting him hard, and Kochanowicz has pitched extra poorly on the road, where he’ll be tonight (though at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park). 

  • LHBs vs. Kochanowicz: .321/.351/.566
  • Raleigh vs. RHPs: .247/.375/.603

Kochanowicz’s OPS against is nearly 200 points higher vs. LHBs, while Raleigh’s OPS is nearly 300 points higher vs. righties.

Key stat: Raleigh is 6-4 against this line in his last 10 games.

Best MLB picks

Albies over 0.5 RBI (+110): Good luck finding many playable prices for Atlanta Braves hitters. 

Atlanta gets German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

The righty carries a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP into the outing. Here’s what he’s done after spinning six scoreless frames in his season debut: 

  • April 24 vs. KC: 4 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 3 K
  • April 16 vs. LAD: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 1 K
  • April 11 vs. SD: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 3 K
  • April 5 vs. ATH: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 3 K 

Marquez runs into an Atlanta team that’s hot following a horrific 0-7 start.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10, scoring more than five runs six times over that stretch. 

Albies has been hitting fifth behind threats Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson.

The switch-hitter has been a disappointment but has been putting the ball in play (career-low K rate) and should have chances to deliver with those guys in front of him.

Crochet under 17.5 outs (+110): I think we’re staring down strong value here.

I like the matchup for Crochet and don’t expect the Toronto Blue Jays to bash him, but I do expect them to make things difficult.

Toronto hasn’t been hitting and ranks 26th in runs per game, but it has strong numbers vs. left-handers and Crochet has been wild.

Toronto’s MLB ranks vs. LHPs:

  • OBP: 1st
  • wRC+: 3rd
  • BB%: 4th
  • K%: 26th

The Jays are a tough team to K but Crochet is elite at missing bats. If he does have success in that department, it’s liable to drive up his pitch count.

His control problems could, too. Crochet walked four over 5.2 innings when he saw Toronto earlier this month and issued five walks in his last start.

Boston was off Monday and needed little work out of its bullpen over the weekend, so the group should be well-rested.

MLB prop picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 29: Back hitters Raleigh and Albies, fade Boston’s Crochet

MLB prop bets

It’s a busy Tuesday night in MLB with all 30 teams scheduled to play, and I have three prop picks for the action.

The pregame narrative: Cal Raleigh leads MLB in homers and is in a great spot to continue his damage tonight. Garrett Crochet has a juicy matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, but I think he’s fade-worthy on a certain prop.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 29, which includes a play on Ozzie Albies.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Raleigh over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Raleigh is top 10 in the majors in total bases and slugging to accompany his MLB-best 10 homers. 

The switch-hitting catcher is a power bat with a lot of swing and miss who does his damage vs. right-handed pitching. 

And that’s exactly why I like him to deliver on this prop tonight. 

Raleigh’s Seattle Mariners get Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, a righty with a 5.47 ERA and 13 Ks over five starts. 

Kochanowicz’s 11.4 K% is the third-lowest mark among pitchers (minimum 20 innings).

Lefties are hitting him hard, and Kochanowicz has pitched extra poorly on the road, where he’ll be tonight (though at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park). 

  • LHBs vs. Kochanowicz: .321/.351/.566
  • Raleigh vs. RHPs: .247/.375/.603

Kochanowicz’s OPS against is nearly 200 points higher vs. LHBs, while Raleigh’s OPS is nearly 300 points higher vs. righties.

Key stat: Raleigh is 6-4 against this line in his last 10 games.

Embed: #113227

Best MLB picks

Albies over 0.5 RBI (+118): Good luck finding many playable prices for Atlanta Braves hitters. 

Atlanta gets German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

The righty carries a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP into the outing. Here’s what he’s done after spinning six scoreless frames in his season debut: 

  • April 24 vs. KC: 4 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 3 K
  • April 16 vs. LAD: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 1 K
  • April 11 vs. SD: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 3 K
  • April 5 vs. ATH: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 3 K 

Marquez runs into an Atlanta team that’s hot following a horrific 0-7 start.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10, scoring more than five runs six times over that stretch. 

Albies has been hitting fifth behind threats Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson.

The switch-hitter has been a disappointment but has been putting the ball in play (career-low K rate) and should have chances to deliver with those guys in front of him.

Crochet under 17.5 outs (+114): I think we’re staring down strong value here.

I like the matchup for Crochet and don’t expect the Toronto Blue Jays to bash him, but I do expect them to make things difficult.

Toronto hasn’t been hitting and ranks 26th in runs per game, but it has strong numbers vs. left-handers and Crochet has been wild.

Toronto’s MLB ranks vs. LHPs:

  • OBP: 1st
  • wRC+: 3rd
  • BB%: 4th
  • K%: 26th

The Jays are a tough team to K but Crochet is elite at missing bats. If he does have success in that department, it’s liable to drive up his pitch count.

His control problems could, too. Crochet walked four over 5.2 innings when he saw Toronto earlier this month and issued five walks in his last start.

Boston was off Monday and needed little work out of its bullpen over the weekend, so the group should be well-rested.

MLB prop picks made at 12:39 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 28: Back Brent Rooker, fade starters Bryce Elder and Nick Martinez

MLB prop bets

I’m kicking off the new week with MLB prop picks on two starting pitchers and Athletics slugger Brent Rooker.

The pregame narrative: Bryce Elder and Nick Martinez are both struggling ahead of their starts and I expect that trend to continue. As for Rooker, he mashes lefties and gets a super hittable one tonight.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Monday, April 28.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rooker over 1.5 total bases (-130)

 A juicy matchup and a reasonable price make Rooker a no-brainer play. 

The Athletics face Texas Rangers starter Patrick Corbin, a left-handed arm who has been hit as hard as any pitcher over the last several years. 

Rooker makes his living punishing lefties and has upper-tier pop.

Corbin has a respectable 3.77 ERA through three starts, but don’t be fooled: His expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his FIP is an unsightly 5.42. 

The southpaw doesn’t miss enough bats, walks too many batters and his 5.71 ERA from 2021-24 was the highest mark among qualified starters. 

Corbin generally works deep and has gone five-plus innings in his last two starts. That’s a plus here, as that length would give Rooker at least a couple of cracks at him.

Rooker enters the day batting .308/.379/.692 against lefties. His OPS vs. LHPs over the last few seasons: 

  • 2025: 1.072
  • 2024: .949
  • 2023: .874

The Athletics DH is 10th in ISO vs. southpaws over that stretch.

Key stat: Rooker has topped 1.5 bases in 59.3% of his starts, per Team Rankings. That’s third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Corbin Carroll.

Best MLB picks

Elder under 4.5 Ks (-118): Elder gets hit often, doesn’t miss bats and he’s at Coors Field tonight. 

I debated whether to fade Elder on his outs or strikeout prop, but I’ve elected to go this route despite the Colorado Rockies having big swing-and-miss tendencies through the first month. 

You could talk yourself into Elder based on the fact that the Rockies have a 67 wRC+ vs. righties and the highest K rate in MLB.

And despite some added power from playing at Coors, their lineup hasn’t performed well at home. 

But I’ve talked myself out of Elder for these reasons: 

  • He’s in the bottom 10th percentile among starters in strikeout and whiff rate. 
  • Elder has worked 6.0 innings twice in four starts but hasn’t topped four Ks this season.
  • Only eight pitchers among 138 who have thrown 20+ innings have a lower K% than Elder (13.0).
  • Elder is posting a career-low K rate and has been below league average in all four seasons.
  • He has a 5.57 ERA, a season after posting a mark of 6.52.

Martinez under 17.5 outs (-125): The Cincinnati Reds right-hander is 0-4 against this line since working 6.0 innings in his season-opening start.

He’s at home tonight at the unforgiving Great American Ball Park.

Martinez has surrendered four runs in both home outings, and his ERA was nearly two full runs higher at home last season (4.00 vs. 2.18).

The St. Louis Cardinals have had an above-average offence vs. righties (108 wRC+), are top 10 in walk rate and only two teams have struck out at a lower rate.

Cincinnati got 13 innings out of its starters the last two days and was off Thursday, so bullpen fatigue shouldn’t be a big concern here.

This is not the matchup to expect a deep outing from Martinez (5.40 ERA).

MLB prop picks made at 12:01 p.m. ET on 04/28/2025.