Managing Editor

Best MLB prop bets May 30: Back Pete Alonso and Casey Mize, fade Lucas Giolito vs. Braves

A fade on Lucas Giolito highlights the best prop picks for Friday’s MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Boston Red Sox right-hander runs into a strong Atlanta Braves team that’s especially dangerous now that Ronald Acuna Jr. has returned to the lineup. And Giolito was already pounded once by the Braves this season.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 30, featuring predictions on Casey Mize and Pete Alonso.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Giolito under 17.5 outs (-127)

I’m surprised to see a 17.5 line on Giolito, whose rested Red Sox face the dangerous Braves on the road.

The rest component is big when dealing with pitcher out props.

Boston was off yesterday, giving its bullpen a full day of recovery. That’s huge in a long season with few days off, especially following back-to-back extra-inning games.

Walker Buehler and Garrett Crochet are projected to start the remaining games of the series, so we’re not looking at a bullpen day on the horizon.

You can find things to like about Giolito’s debut season with the Red Sox, but the overall body of work leaves a lot to be desired.

5.27 ERA in 5 starts
Below-average K%
.295 batting average against

The Braves grinded down all-stars Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler in a doubleheader yesterday, forcing both out before completing six frames.

Atlanta pumped Wheeler for a season-high six runs and is third in MLB in wRC+ over the last two weeks.

On the year, the Braves rank seventh in batting average and on-base percentage vs. righties.

Acuna, back atop the lineup, has a 1.082 OPS through his first six games.

Key stat: Giolito faced Atlanta two starts ago, allowing six runs on eight hits in four innings.

Embed: #114303

Best MLB picks

Mize over 3.5 Ks (-137): Mize has a league-average K rate, though his whiff rate is in the 73rd percentile thanks to an excellent splitter he throws often.

Mize has recorded at least three strikeouts in every start.

He’s 6-2 against this line on the season.

The right-hander fell short of this line when he faced the Royals in April, but tonight he’ll get them at Kauffman Stadium, which has been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball this season.

That, and Kansas City’s non-potent offence (last in MLB in homers, fifth-worst wRC+), will hopefully help keep Mize on the mound.

Mize (2.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) has done a good job of that this season, working into the sixth inning in seven of his eight starts.

The reasoning behind this light line is simple: Kansas City is second in MLB in contact rate and has the lowest K% in baseball vs. righties.

But that’s not a big enough deterrent for me against a pitcher who has been sharp and generally works deep.

Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+110): With Kyle Freeland on the mound for the Colorado Rockies, there are quite a few props I like for tonight’s game against the New York Mets.

But I’ve landed on this. Here’s why:

Alonso is third in the majors with 17 doubles.

Only 10 players have more total bases.

He leads the Mets with 11 homers and is batting a career-high .290.

The power-hitting first baseman has a .937 OPS at home, and the wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at Citi Field tonight.

Alonso has been quiet in May, but Freeland represents a great spot.

The southpaw struggles to keep runners off the bases and from crossing the plate, entering with a 5.86 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.

Right-handed hitters are batting .360 off him and slugging .505.

MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 05/30/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 29: Back Nats stud James Wood and Tampa’s Jonathan Aranda

It’s a light Thursday on the MLB schedule, but I still have three player prop recommendations for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Washington Nationals stud James Wood has been on fire and enjoys a plus matchup during the final MLB game of the night. Two picks from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros series opener round out my plays.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 29, featuring predictions on Jonathan Aranda and Shane Baz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Wood over 1.5 total bases (+110)

There’s clear value here on the 22-year-old, who’s been raking for the Nats.

The left fielder enters tonight’s game at T-Mobile Park with 15 homers and a .950 OPS.

He’s top 10 in the majors in wRC+ and ISO, and he’s one of 11 players to drive in 40-plus runs.

Wood, who will see Seattle Mariners righty Emerson Hancock, is batting .295/.396/.590 with 10 homers vs. RHPs.

Hancock (5.95 ERA) has been roughed up repeatedly, allowing opposing batters to hit a scorching .325/.376/.528 off him.

He doesn’t miss bats and has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, leading to bottom-10 percentile ranks in K% and expected ERA.

Over his last 10 games, Wood has a 1.238 OPS and is 8-2 against this line.

Key stat: Wood has topped 1.5 bases in 50.9% of his starts, the eighth-best mark in MLB (per Team Rankings).

Best MLB picks

Aranda over 0.5 RBI (+162): Six qualified hitters are batting at least .300 with a .900 OPS. Aranda is one of them.

The 27-year-old has exploded this season, entering tonight with a team-leading 30 RBI. He has done damage against right-handers and will see one tonight.

With the platoon advantage, Aranda is batting .333/.399/.568 with all seven of his homers.

Houston’s Ryan Gusto has struggled against lefty hitters, sporting a .284/.377/.582 slash line. His opponent OPS vs. LHHs is more than 300 points higher, and he’s surrendered all six of his homers to them.

Aranda generally hits in a run-producing spot, batting cleanup or No. 5 in the Rays’ lineup in all but three games this month.

Baz under 17.5 outs (-106): Sticking with Rays/Astros, I don’t like Baz’s ability to work deep.

The right-hander has made five starts in May, clearing this line once. The two times he pitched effectively both came against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Baz allowed five-plus runs in each of his other three starts and has walked multiple batters in every outing this month.

He hasn’t been missing bats, either, after recording two double-digit strikeout games in April.

Rays starters have gone six-plus innings in four consecutive games, so Tampa shouldn’t have fatigue concerns about its bullpen.

Houston’s 118 wRC+ over the last two weeks is tops in the AL (second in MLB). The Astros have won four straight and have the second-most home wins (20) in baseball.

This is a tough assignment for the 25-year-old Baz.

MLB prop picks made at 2:55 p.m. ET on 05/29/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 29: Back Nats stud James Wood and Tampa’s Jonathan Aranda

It’s a light Thursday on the MLB schedule, but I still have three player prop recommendations for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Washington Nationals stud James Wood has been on fire and enjoys a plus matchup during the final MLB game of the night. Two picks from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros series opener round out my plays.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 29, featuring predictions on Jonathan Aranda and Shane Baz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Wood over 1.5 total bases (+108)

There’s clear value here on the 22-year-old, who’s been raking for the Nats.

The left fielder enters tonight’s game at T-Mobile Park with 15 homers and a .950 OPS.

He’s top 10 in the majors in wRC+ and ISO, and he’s one of 11 players to drive in 40-plus runs.

Wood, who will see Seattle Mariners righty Emerson Hancock, is batting .295/.396/.590 with 10 homers vs. RHPs.

Hancock (5.95 ERA) has been roughed up repeatedly, allowing opposing batters to hit a scorching .325/.376/.528 off him.

He doesn’t miss bats and has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, leading to bottom-10 percentile ranks in K% and expected ERA.

Over his last 10 games, Wood has a 1.238 OPS and is 8-2 against this line.

Key stat: Wood has topped 1.5 bases in 50.9% of his starts, the eighth-best mark in MLB (per Team Rankings).

Best MLB picks

Aranda over 0.5 RBI (+180): Six qualified hitters are batting at least .300 with a .900 OPS. Aranda is one of them.

The 27-year-old has exploded this season, entering tonight with a team-leading 30 RBI. He has done damage against right-handers and will see one tonight.

With the platoon advantage, Aranda is batting .333/.399/.568 with all seven of his homers.

Houston’s Ryan Gusto has struggled against lefty hitters, sporting a .284/.377/.582 slash line. His opponent OPS vs. LHHs is more than 300 points higher, and he’s surrendered all six of his homers to them.

Aranda generally hits in a run-producing spot, batting cleanup or No. 5 in the Rays’ lineup in all but three games this month.

Baz under 17.5 outs (-114): Sticking with Rays/Astros, I don’t like Baz’s ability to work deep.

The right-hander has made five starts in May, clearing this line once. The two times he pitched effectively both came against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Baz allowed five-plus runs in each of his other three starts and has walked multiple batters in every outing this month.

He hasn’t been missing bats, either, after recording two double-digit strikeout games in April.

Rays starters have gone six-plus innings in four consecutive games, so Tampa shouldn’t have fatigue concerns about its bullpen.

Houston’s 118 wRC+ over the last two weeks is tops in the AL (second in MLB). The Astros have won four straight and have the second-most home wins (20) in baseball.

This is a tough assignment for the 25-year-old Baz.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 05/29/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 28: Back Cal Raleigh and Clarke Schmidt, fade Yusei Kikuchi

Power-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh headlines Wednesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Raleigh is torching pitchers, as he’s elevated his game to new heights and is among the most feared hitters in the sport through two months. He has a juicy matchup tonight, and I expect the damage to continue.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 28, featuring predictions on Yusei Kikuchi and Clarke Schmidt.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Raleigh over 1.5 total bases (+104)

It’s impossible to see this matchup and not sniff out Raleigh’s props.

Raleigh leads the American League with 19 homers and is well on his way to his third straight 30-homer season.

He’s slugging .603 and has a .975 OPS, numbers that far exceed his career-best marks.

In May, Raleigh has nine homers, is slugging .692 and has a 1.109 OPS.

By wRC+, the only player who has been better this month is Aaron Judge.

Raleigh is crushing both lefties and righties and his Seattle Mariners get the struggling Washington Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams.

Williams has allowed four-plus runs in five straight starts, entering with an unsightly 6.39 ERA.

The switch-hitting Raleigh will at least start the game from the left side, and left-handed batters have demolished Williams (.379 average, 1.018 OPS).

Williams will be followed by a Nats bullpen that has the worst ERA (6.22) in the National League.

Key stat: Raleigh is coming off a two-homer game and has cleared this line in five of his last seven contests.

Embed: #114247

Best MLB picks

Kikuchi under 17.5 outs (-113): Among my many misses last night was a fade on Kikuchi’s teammate and fellow left-hander Tyler Anderson, who worked six frames.

Anderson held his own against the powerful New York Yankees and Kikuchi is an objectively better pitcher who has the stuff to carve up a lineup when he’s on.

But he’s also wild, has a diminished K rate and faces the best left-handed hitting team in MLB.

New York has terrorized southpaws this season:

No. 1 in wRC (145)
No. 1 in SLG (.502)
No. 1 homers (26)
No. 1 in BB% (11.1%)

Asking any lefty to record six-plus innings against the Bronx Bombers is a big request, let alone one who has walked four batters in four of his last seven starts.

Over that stretch, Kikuchi is 2-5 against this line after clearing 17.5 outs in four straight outings to begin the season.

The Angels are off tomorrow and their bullpen has been used lightly considering they’re playing for the 13th straight day. So we shouldn’t expect the club to shy away from the group over fatigue concerns.

Schmidt over 6.5 Ks (+115): This is a big line but a number that’s worth biting on.

Three straight starters have cleared this vs. the Angels, including Schmidt’s teammates Ryan Yarbrough and Carlos Rodon.

Schmidt is only 2-5 vs. this line but has a 65th-percentile K rate and a more impressive 79th-percentile whiff rate.

The righty’s K/9 rate is not far off from 2024, when he ranked 30th among 157 pitchers in that category (minimum 80 innings pitched).

Los Angeles strikes out more than any team in baseball.

The 29-year-old Schmidt struck out eight in a brief outing his last time out after going six innings in three straight starts.

He has struggled with control but should benefit against an Angels club that has the second-lowest walk rate in MLB.

MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 05/28/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Williams

It’s do or die for the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota needs to win or its season is over. And it will have to do it on the road against the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 at home this postseason. I’m not picking a side, but I have combined four player props into a +440 same-game parlay recommendation.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals on May 28, featuring plays on Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Williams.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Gobert 8+ rebounds | Edwards 25+ points | Williams 2+ threes & 4+ assists (+440)

Gobert 8+ rebounds (-175): These teams have split the battle of the boards 2-2.

The Thunder outrebounded the Timberwolves in the first two games before Minnesota won the war in Games 3 and 4, its two best contests of the series.

Minnesota was fifth in the NBA in rebounding rate, while the Thunder ranked 24th. With capable bodies on the glass, this should be an area of advantage for the T-wolves.

And it’s Gobert who provides the biggest edge.

Gobert is coming off his best game of the series, scoring 13 points and corralling nine rebounds. He finished around the rim and buried 3-of-6 free-throw attempts.

The 7-foot-1 centre also guarded MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for large stretches, either picking him up past half court or helping in switches, and he proved competent doing so.

His all-around effort led to a series-high 32 minutes.

Gobert’s minutes will partially depend on how the Thunder deploy their own bigs, but I think he’s likely to see a similar amount of floor time.

With that amount of run, Gobert should be able to crack this number. He averaged 10.9 rebounds in the regular season and is 8-3 against this milestone in his last 11 playoff games.

Embed: #114242

NBA SGP legs

Edwards 25+ points (-190): If the Timberwolves go down, I don’t see how it happens without Edwards chucking.

The star shooting guard was held in check in Game 4, facing constant double teams and pressure that led to a series-worst performance (16 points, 5-of-13 from the field, 1-of-7 on threes).

Oklahoma City played him spectacularly, but that excuse can’t fly again in an elimination game. Edwards has to find a way and I expect to see a much more aggressive version of him tonight.

An aggressive Edwards is getting to the line and firing from long range, a combination we’ve seen deployed frequently with good efficiency.

The 23-year-old entered the Game 4 dud off back-to-back 30-plus-point performances and is averaging 25.8 PPG in the playoffs.

Jalen Williams Game 4 props

Williams 2+ threes (-134): This might be the leg I’m most worried about because Williams isn’t a volume 3-point shooter.

But he’s been efficient from the perimeter this series (50.0% shooting) and dismantled the Timberwolves in Game 4.

Minnesota had no answer for Williams, who dropped a playoff-high 34 points on 13-of-24 shooting.

He nailed 6-of-9 shots from deep, marking the third straight game he’s hit multiple triples.

The first-time all-star is 10-5 against this line this postseason.

Williams 4+ assists (-335): This leg is an easy sell for me. It drives a +325 SGP to +440, and it has hit at a 93% rate in the playoffs.

The Thunder’s 42-point Game 3 loss was the only time this postseason Williams failed to dish out four-plus assists. He was held to a playoff-low 25 minutes in the blowout.

That means he’s 14-1 against this line in the playoffs after averaging a career-high 5.1 assists in the regular season.

No more explanation is needed.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions made at 10:56 a.m. ET 05/28/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 27: Picks on Rafael Devers, Max Meyer and Ranger Suarez

Boston Red Sox star Rafael Devers headlines Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Devers is on a tear this month and will enjoy a platoon advantage tonight, making his hits/runs/RBI prop a juicy play against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 27, featuring predictions on Ranger Suarez and Max Meyer.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Devers over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-106)

Devers and the Red Sox see the Brewers’ Aaron Civale on the road Tuesday night.

The right-handed Civale is making his third start after beginning the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain.

Civale doesn’t have big platoon splits, but Devers does, making him an ideal target for me.

Devers’ career stats against righties and lefties:

Vs. RHPs: .286/.359/.554
Vs. LHPs: .268/.325/.421

The designated hitter’s early-season slump is well behind him, too.

Devers is up to a .943 OPS, which includes a robust .375/.486/.670 slash line in May.

Also, he has cashed this bet in 19 of his past 32 games.

The 28-year-old isn’t hitting nearly as well on the road, but I like the spot against a high-contact pitcher and a Brewers bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA.

Key stat: Devers’ .312 ISO vs. RHPs is the fifth-best mark in MLB.

Best MLB picks

Meyer over 4.5 Ks (-118): The Miami Marlins right-hander has a tough assignment against the San Diego Padres, but this is a light line that Meyer has regularly hit.

Meyer’s ability to soak innings helps, too.

The 26-year-old is 7-3 against this number, working at least 5.2 innings seven times.

He has 75th-percentile K and whiff rates, striking out batters at a well-above-average clip.

Meyer has been hit hard in May, yet still averaged 5.3 Ks in his last three starts.

San Diego will be a challenge, as the club has the third-lowest K rate in MLB.

But the Padres have been susceptible to striking out lately, posting the 10th-highest K% over the last two weeks.

The last four starters to face the Padres have cleared this number.

Suarez under 17.5 outs (+110): The Philadelphia Phillies’ southpaw has been sharp but is worth fading against a dangerous Atlanta Braves team.

Atlanta recently got back Ronald Acuna Jr., who leads a powerful foursome in Atlanta’s lineup, hitting in front of Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson.

Suarez has topped this line in three straight, but the last two were against the inept Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates.

And he failed to hit the 50% mark a season ago.

The Braves enter with a 119 wRC+ over the last two weeks (sixth in MLB).

Getting this at plus money screams value.

MLB prop picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 05/27/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 27: Picks on Rafael Devers, Max Meyer, Tyler Anderson and Ranger Suarez

Boston Red Sox star Rafael Devers headlines Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Devers is on a tear this month and will enjoy a platoon advantage tonight, making his plus-money total bases prop a juicy play against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 27, featuring predictions on Ranger Suarez, Tyler Anderson and Max Meyer.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Devers over 1.5 total bases (+130)

Devers and the Red Sox see the Brewers’ Aaron Civale on the road Tuesday night.

The right-handed Civale is making his third start after beginning the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain.

Civale doesn’t have big platoon splits, but Devers does, making him an ideal target for me.

Devers’ career stats against righties and lefties:

Vs. RHPs: .286/.359/.554
Vs. LHPs: .268/.325/.421

The designated hitter’s early-season slump is well behind him, too.

Devers is up to a .943 OPS, which includes a robust .375/.486/.670 slash line in May.

The 28-year-old isn’t hitting nearly as well on the road, but I like the spot against a high-contact pitcher and a Brewers bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA.

Key stat: Devers’ .312 ISO vs. RHPs is the fifth-best mark in MLB.

Embed: #114221

Best MLB picks

Meyer over 4.5 Ks (-117): The Miami Marlins right-hander has a tough assignment against the San Diego Padres, but this is a light line that Meyer has regularly hit.

Meyer’s ability to soak innings helps, too.

The 26-year-old is 7-3 against this number, working at least 5.2 innings seven times.

He has 75th-percentile K and whiff rates, striking out batters at a well-above-average clip.

Meyer has been hit hard in May, yet still averaged 5.3 Ks in his last three starts.

San Diego will be a challenge, as the club has the third-lowest K rate in MLB.

But the Padres have been susceptible to striking out lately, posting the 10th-highest K% over the last two weeks.

The last four starters to face the Padres have cleared this number.

Top MLB pitcher props

Anderson under 17.5 outs (-124): The southpaw is coming off his worst outing of the season (4.2 IP, five runs, six walks) and has a 5.06 ERA over four May starts.

To get back on track, he’ll have to handle the New York Yankees.

New York’s 150 wRC+ vs. lefties is the best mark in MLB.

The Yankees are averaging an AL-best 5.68 runs per game.

Behind Aaron Judge’s AL-leading 18 homers, the Yankees lead the majors with 86 bombs.

The Los Angeles Angels have gotten six-plus innings from their starters in back-to-back games and only needed two relievers in the game before that.

Considering they’re set to play for the 12th straight day, their bullpen is in good shape.

Anderson is 4-6 against this line, going under in three straight starts.

Suarez under 17.5 outs (+110): The Philadelphia Phillies’ southpaw has been sharp but is worth fading against a dangerous Atlanta Braves team.

Atlanta recently got back Ronald Acuna Jr., who leads a powerful foursome in Atlanta’s lineup, hitting in front of Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson.

Suarez has topped this line in three straight, but the last two were against the inept Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates.

And he failed to hit the 50% mark a season ago.

The Braves enter with a 119 wRC+ over the last two weeks (sixth in MLB).

Getting this at plus money screams value.

MLB prop picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 05/27/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 3: Bet on Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle in +425 same-game parlay

We’ll find out what the Minnesota Timberwolves are made of when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday for Game 3 of the Western Conference finals.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota barely put up a fight in Oklahoma and heads home trailing this series 2-0. The NBA-best Thunder have looked the part behind MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and can take a commanding lead with a road victory at Target Center.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Game 3 on May 24, featuring plays on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves to win | Edwards 3+ threes | Randle over 17.5 points (+425)

Timberwolves moneyline (+120): My confidence in the Timberwolves winning this series has gone from moderate to non-existent.

The Thunder handled business at home. But more than the two wins, it was the way they did it.

They won Game 1 by 26 points and Game 2 by 15.

Oklahoma City won the rebounding and turnover battle in both games.

OKC, the NBA’s No. 1 defence, held the T-wolves to 38.2% shooting.

The Thunder held Edwards to a combined 14-for-39 from the field (4-of-17 from long range).

Edwards was especially quiet in Game 1, and Randle was a ghost in Game 2.

The potential edge Rudy Gobert can provide as the biggest player on the court hasn’t been there, as he’s been held to seven points and 12 rebounds.

That said, I don’t think the Timberwolves are getting swept. Game 3 is the one to back them in straight up, and we’re getting excellent value here as a home underdog.

Minnesota is no slouch, it has just run into its toughest opponent.

The No. 6-seeded Timberwolves finished 16 games over .500 and fourth in net rating (top 10 in both offence/defence).

They then dispatched a flawed, yet dangerous, Los Angeles Lakers team in five games before wiping the floor with the Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors.

The Thunder can be beaten — the Denver Nuggets took them to seven games. And while the T-wolves don’t have a Nikola Jokic-like X-factor, I do expect their biggest stars to power a Game 3 victory.

Minnesota is 4-1 at home in the playoffs and 9-1 at Target Center over its last 10 games.

Embed: #114108

NBA SGP legs

Edwards 3+ threes (-200): There’s little doubt that Edwards will be chucking in Game 3.

His 26 attempts from the field in Game 2 were tied for the second-most he’s taken this postseason. That led to 32 points (he scored 18 in Game 1) despite shooting 1-of-9 from distance.

Edwards has taken eight-plus shots from the perimeter in all but two playoff games (Games 1 and 2 vs. Golden State).

While he’s no guarantee for three triples at that volume, he’s a good bet.

The 23-year-old star is 7-5 against this line in the postseason and averaged 4.1 threes in the regular season, second in the NBA to Curry.

Randle over 17.5 points (-113): This leg feels more risky than Edwards, but I’m not sure it should be.

Randle’s scoring is up considerably in the playoffs.

He’s averaging 22.6 PPG after dropping 18.7 in the regular season.

Randle is coming off his worst postseason performance (six points), but lit up the Thunder for 28 in Game 1.

The power forward is 10-2 against this line and shooting 50.3% from the field. That includes a stellar 37.5% clip from long range.

Randle only took 11 shots last game, matching his lowest mark this postseason. The Game 2 loss was also the second time he failed to take more than three 3-point attempts.

Give the Thunder defence credit, but Randle has earned the benefit of doubt that a rebound is likely. He’s scored 20-plus points nine times this postseason.

Expect Randle to be more involved and efficient in this must-win game for Minnesota, which will desperately need offence outside of Edwards.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 2:45 p.m. ET 05/23/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 23: Back Freddie Freeman, Jeremy Pena and Josh Naylor on Friday

I’m targeting three hitters in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Freddie Freeman is as hot as any non-Aaron Judge player in the game and his total bases prop comes at a price too good to pass up. My other two plays look to take advantage of soft matchups.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 23, featuring predictions on Jeremy Pena and Josh Naylor.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+115)

New York Mets starter Griffin Canning has an elite groundball rate and enters tonight’s start against the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers with a stellar 2.47 ERA.

He has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of nine outings.

But his expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his K and BB rates are in line with his career marks. His pitch repertoire is largely unchanged, too.

Canning had ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00 in two of the last three years, and there’s almost certainly some regression on the way.

The great start by New York’s righty has created excellent value on Freeman.

Freeman is hitting .377/.438/.698 vs. RHPs.

He leads the NL in batting average, slugging and wRC+.

The weather in New York isn’t expected to be a concern and, if anything, would aid hitters with wind blowing out to right field, Freeman’s pull side.

Citi Field skews more to a pitcher’s park, but it’s not nearly as extreme as other stadiums. Getting Freeman at this price is a steal.

Consider this: MVP teammate Shohei Ohtani is -152 to top 1.5 bases. Yet Freeman has cleared this mark more often than Ohtani this season (per Team Rankings).

Key stat: Freeman has topped 1.5 bases in 55.3% of his starts, the third-best mark in MLB.

Best MLB picks

Pena over 0.5 runs (-106): Pena’s going to need help, but he should put himself in a position to succeed.

The Houston Astros’ shortstop moved into the club’s leadoff spot on April 27 and hasn’t looked back. Since then, he’s done this:

BA: .347
OBP: .400
SLG: .516

Pena has only crossed the plate 11 times in those 24 games, but he has a juicy matchup against the divisional rival Seattle Mariners.

Emerson Hancock gets the ball and has walked multiple batters in four of his last five starts, entering with a 6.21 ERA.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings:

Hancock has a top 15 HR/9 rate
Top 10 highest WHIPs

Hancock lacks swing and miss ability and will likely be expected to provide some length after George Kirby lasted 3.2 innings in his season debut last night.

That should set Pena up for two to three plate appearances against the struggling righty.

Naylor over 0.5 RBI (+155): Let’s end with a bigger swing.

Naylor and the Arizona Diamondbacks get St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who’s suppressing runs at his best rate in three years.

But Mikolas, never a big strikeout arm, is missing bats at a career-low rate and walking batters at a career-worst rate. A stat correction to his ERA is surely on the way.

Mikolas has a 2.20 ERA in May, but he has benefited from facing three below-average offences (by wRC+) in the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals.

Arizona is a clear step above them, ranking fourth by that metric and No. 1 in ISO vs. right-handers.

Naylor will hit behind some all-star bats in Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, and he primarily does his damage against righties.

Since the start of 2024, the lefty-swinging power bat has hit 30 of his 36 homers vs. right-handers. And he has big lefty/righty career splits, which are on full display this season:

Vs. RHP: .317/.389/.508
Vs. LHP: .233/.281/.283

Left-handed hitters are batting .292 off Mikolas (RHBs: .171), and his OPS against is 250 points higher vs. LHBs.

MLB prop picks made at 12:57 p.m. ET on 05/23/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 23: Back Freddie Freeman, Jeremy Pena and Josh Naylor on Friday

I’m targeting three hitters in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Freddie Freeman is as hot as any non-Aaron Judge player in the game and his total bases prop comes at a price too good to pass up. My other two plays look to take advantage of soft matchups.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 23, featuring predictions on Jeremy Pena and Josh Naylor.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+130)

New York Mets starter Griffin Canning has an elite groundball rate and enters tonight’s start against the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers with a stellar 2.47 ERA.

He has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of nine outings.

But his expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his K and BB rates are in line with his career marks. His pitch repertoire is largely unchanged, too.

Canning had ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00 in two of the last three years, and there’s almost certainly some regression on the way.

The great start by New York’s righty has created excellent value on Freeman.

Freeman is hitting .377/.438/.698 vs. RHPs.

He leads the NL in batting average, slugging and wRC+.

The weather in New York isn’t expected to be a concern and, if anything, would aid hitters with wind blowing out to right field, Freeman’s pull side.

Citi Field skews more to a pitcher’s park, but it’s not nearly as extreme as other stadiums. Getting Freeman at this price is a steal.

Consider this: MVP teammate Shohei Ohtani is -152 to top 1.5 bases. Yet Freeman has cleared this mark more often than Ohtani this season (per Team Rankings).

Key stat: Freeman has topped 1.5 bases in 55.3% of his starts, the third-best mark in MLB.

Embed: #114098

Best MLB picks

Pena over 0.5 runs (-104): Pena’s going to need help, but he should put himself in a position to succeed.

The Houston Astros’ shortstop moved into the club’s leadoff spot on April 27 and hasn’t looked back. Since then, he’s done this:

BA: .347
OBP: .400
SLG: .516

Pena has only crossed the plate 11 times in those 24 games, but he has a juicy matchup against the divisional rival Seattle Mariners.

Emerson Hancock gets the ball and has walked multiple batters in four of his last five starts, entering with a 6.21 ERA.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings:

Hancock has a top 15 HR/9 rate
Top 10 highest WHIPs

Hancock lacks swing and miss ability and will likely be expected to provide some length after George Kirby lasted 3.2 innings in his season debut last night.

That should set Pena up for two to three plate appearances against the struggling righty.

Naylor over 0.5 RBI (+163): Let’s end with a bigger swing.

Naylor and the Arizona Diamondbacks get St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who’s suppressing runs at his best rate in three years.

But Mikolas, never a big strikeout arm, is missing bats at a career-low rate and walking batters at a career-worst rate. A stat correction to his ERA is surely on the way.

Mikolas has a 2.20 ERA in May, but he has benefited from facing three below-average offences (by wRC+) in the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals.

Arizona is a clear step above them, ranking fourth by that metric and No. 1 in ISO vs. right-handers.

Naylor will hit behind some all-star bats in Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, and he primarily does his damage against righties.

Since the start of 2024, the lefty-swinging power bat has hit 30 of his 36 homers vs. right-handers. And he has big lefty/righty career splits, which are on full display this season:

Vs. RHP: .317/.389/.508
Vs. LHP: .233/.281/.283

Left-handed hitters are batting .292 off Mikolas (RHBs: .171), and his OPS against is 250 points higher vs. LHBs.

MLB prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 05/23/2025.