Two starting pitchers and Juan Soto are featured in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Spencer Schwellenbach enters in top form, sporting a 2.16 ERA over his last five starts with some big swing and miss. He’s set up well again tonight against the San Francisco Giants at their pitcher-friendly home park.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 6, featuring a prediction on Los Angeles Angels righty Kyle Hendricks.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Schwellebach over 5.5 Ks (-143)
I’m surprised this price is available, but don’t anticipate that being the case by first pitch at Oracle Park.
Schwellenbach has big strikeout upside: He has punched out 11 batters in back-to-back starts and has another 10-K outing this season.
The sophomore had a pair of double-digit strikeout games in his 2024 rookie year, finishing with a well-above-average 25.4 K%.
His Ks are down a bit this season, but he’s still above average at missing bats and generally works deep into ballgames.
Schwellenbach has gone six-plus innings in five straight starts and 10 of 12 on the season.
At a run-suppressing park against a team with the 12th-highest K rate in the majors — and below-average power vs. righties — this is an attractive play to me.
Key stat: Schwellenbach’s 11-K performance two starts ago came against the San Diego Padres, the most difficult team in the NL to strike out.
Best MLB picks
Hendricks under 17.5 outs (-118): The veteran has recorded 17-plus outs in five of his last six starts, clearing this line in half of them.
But his performances haven’t exactly been pretty. The 12th-year veteran has allowed three-plus runs in five straight outings and is vulnerable to a blowup each time he takes the mound.
- Lowest K/9 rate of his career
- Highest HR/9 rate of his career
- 2nd-highest BB/9 rate of his career
Hendricks enters tonight’s start against the Seattle Mariners with a bottom-of-the-barrel whiff rate and a 5.34 ERA. Getting this many outs from an arm that struggles to miss bats is asking a lot.
The Angels were off Thursday, so the bullpen comes in with more rest than usual.
Seattle has the seventh-best offence in baseball by wRC+ and is top 10 in homers.
Soto over 1.5 total bases (-120): This price on Soto at Coors Field? The superstar’s struggles and high walk rate lead to this number, but this still feels like a steal.
That’s especially the case when you consider Colorado’s starter: Antonio Senzatela.
The Rockies right-hander has allowed four-plus runs in nine of 12 starts, including seven straight.
- Senzatela has a 7.14 ERA (the highest among qualified starters is 5.51).
- The New York Mets pounded him for seven runs and eight hits (two homers) in his last start. One of those home runs was hit by Soto.
- Left-handed batters are hitting .409 off Senzatela with a 1.022 OPS.
Soto is hitting .229 with a disappointing .797 OPS, but perhaps a breakout is coming. His batted ball metrics are elite, and he’s slugging .773 with a 1.257 OPS over the past week.
MLB prop picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET on 06/06/2025.