Chris Toman

Two New York Yankees hitters highlight the best MLB prop picks for Friday’s 15-game slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm both rake at home and get a juicy matchup against Mitch Spence and the Athletics’ weak bullpen. I’m targeting both Bronx Bombers tonight.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 27, featuring Los Angeles Angels starter Jose Soriano.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bellinger over 1.5 total bases (+125)

The lefty-swinging Bellinger is a preferable play at home, and Spence has big platoon splits that I expect the Yankee power hitter to take advantage of.

• Home: .286 average, .517 SLG, .852 OPS
• Road: .230 average, .310 SLG, .667 OPS

Bellinger has hit eight of his 10 bombs at Yankee Stadium, which is among the top home run-hitting parks for left-handed batters. 

While Spence hasn’t been homer-prone since making his debut last season, he’ll be pitching in a tough offensive environment, providing Bellinger with some added upside on this market. 

Spence has held RHBs to a .251/.317/.390 career batting line. 

Lefties, however, have fared significantly better against the sophomore arm: .296/.341/.503.

And for the Yankees, the big damage could come later in the game. Relieving Spence will be an Athletics bullpen that ranks last in MLB in ERA and walk rate.

Key stat: Following a brutal first month in pinstripes, Bellinger is hitting .291/.349/.491 since the start of May.

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Chisholm over 0.5 RBI (+175): I’m doubling down on left-handed hitting Yankees batters.

Projected by RotoWire to hit sixth tonight, this is still a great run-producing spot for Chisholm behind a dangerous Yankees lineup that’s second in wRC+ and fourth in runs per game. 

Chisholm has obliterated the ball at home and is sizzling in June. 

• Home: .317 BA, 9 of 11 homers, 1.010 OPS
• June: .329/.390/.548 

I’d also give Chisholm a look at over 1.5 bases, priced at +150 as of noon.

He’s slugging 170 points better against righties this season.

Soriano over 5.5 Ks (+106): This is a tough number to hit against the Washington Nationals but Soriano is on a heater.

The Angels’ righty has been brilliant in his last three starts:

• Vs. HOU: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 10 K
• @ NYY: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K
• Vs. ATH: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 12 K

He generated 19 swinging strikes against Houston. That came two starts after inducing a career-best 20 swings/misses vs. the Athletics.

The other thing working in Soriano’s favour is his ability to work deep, leading to more chances to pile up Ks against a team that doesn’t go down on strikes easily (seventh-lowest K rate in MLB).

Soriano’s outs prop is set at 18.5. That’s a big line, but he feels like a good bet to work at least six frames against a struggling Nats offence. 

Washington has the fifth-worst offence in baseball this month, per wRC+, and is getting on base at the lowest clip (.287) in the National League. 

Soriano has completed six innings in nine of 16 outings this season. 

MLB prop picks made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 06/27/2025.

Atlanta Braves stars Matt Olson and starting pitcher Spencer Strider headline Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Strider carved up the rival New York Mets in his last start and I expect the strikeout artist to have success again tonight. He should get help from the hot-hitting Olson, who will enjoy a plus matchup against Strider’s counterpart.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 24, featuring multiple predictions on Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Max Muncy.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Olson over 1.5 total bases (+108)

The power-hitting Braves first baseman has been on a tear and has a juicy matchup at Citi Field. 

Frankie Montas makes his first start of the season for the Mets and is impossible to trust after a disastrous rehab assignment. 

Montas, recovering from a lat injury, made six starts in the minors, pitching to a 12.05 ERA. 

• He only generated 10 strikeouts in 18.2 innings while walking 10.

• Montas’ last two Triple-A outings were particularly brutal, allowing 13 runs on 14 hits.

Olson is batting .296/.427/.535 in June with three homers and eight doubles.

Recently hitting out of the No. 2 spot, Olson’s runs scored prop (-130) has soared and he’s no longer in the best run-producing spot. 

Getting plus money on his total bases prop is the way to go.

Key stat: Olson has a 1.003 OPS over the last 15 days. 

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Muncy over 1.5 total bases (+106) & 0.5 RBI (+120): Colorado Rockies righty German Marquez has thrown well in recent outings, recovering from a horrific start to the season.

But he still has a 6.11 ERA and .315 opponents’ batting average, and he encounters one of the worst possible matchups tonight: the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field.

As expected, prices on Dodgers props aren’t friendly. There’s a huge markup to pay for anything involving Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman. 

But Muncy’s prices are playable, and he’ll be hitting behind that trio and most likely a couple of other dangerous bats (Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez).

That should lead to run-producing opportunities. And the way Muncy has been hitting the ball makes him a great target. 

I don’t generally double up, but think it’s warranted here.

• Muncy in June: .310/.461/.621, 5 HR, 14 RBI. He had 26 RBI in May.

• Muncy’s splits: .276/.413/.508 vs. RHPs; .120/.211/.200 vs. LHPs. The veteran has clubbed 10 of his 11 homers against right-handers.

• The icing on the cake: Muncy is slugging .625 with four homers in 39 career plate appearances vs. Marquez.

Strider over 6.5 Ks (+100): The Braves ace is coming off back-to-back dominant outings, shaking a bumpy and injury-impacted start to his season.

He silenced the Mets over six innings in his last start, allowing one run on five hits with eight strikeouts.

The start before that: 13 Ks vs. the Rockies over six scoreless frames.

• Strider generated a whopping 40 swinging strikes over the two starts.

• Fourteen of his fastest 20 pitches this season came in those outings.

Strider missed nearly all of 2024 due to Tommy John, but had far and away the best K rate (37.4%) among starters from 2022-23.

He’s not quite at that level yet, but is in the 87th percentile with a 94th-percentile whiff rate.

Strider is too good to pass up on this line.

MLB prop picks made at 12:03 p.m. ET on 06/24/2025.

Friday’s top MLB prop recommendation features a play on hot-hitting Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Neto and the Angels travel to Baltimore in a game that has the highest total of the evening. I expect him to produce in a juicy matchup at the hitter-friendly venue.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 13, featuring predictions on Houston Astros starter Colton Gordon and the Atlanta Braves’ Ozzie Albies.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Neto over 0.5 runs (-114)

This is the only double-digit total (10.5) of the day. Runs are expected to be plentiful in a starting pitching matchup featuring Jack Kochanowicz (5.61 ERA) and Charlie Morton (6.59 ERA). 

Morton has bounced between the rotation and bullpen, pitching much better as a reliever. But the Orioles have him starting again and his last outing was a disaster after two solid turns in the rotation. 

• The veteran righty got lit for four runs on six hits, walking four over 2.1 innings.

• His walk rate is the highest since his debut season and his HR/9 rate is among the highest of his career. Baltimore’s Camden Yards is the No. 1 home run-hitting park in MLB this season (per Baseball Savant).

As for Neto, he’s having a career year and hitting at the top of an Angels lineup that has pop (fourth in homers, sixth in ISO). 

Neto has been especially strong in June, slashing .326/.356/.488 and scoring nine times in 10 games. 

Only three players (Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber) have scored more frequently than Neto, per Team Rankings.

Key stat: Neto has crossed the plate in nearly 60% of his starts.

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Albies over 0.5 RBI (+165): Albies’ success vs. Colorado Rockies starter German Marquez doesn’t matter much to me (the sample is only 14 at-bats).

But it doesn’t hurt that he’s batting .429 with two homers and only two strikeouts.

What’s most appealing is Marquez’s struggles — he gets hit often and hard and doesn’t miss bats — and who Albies is hitting behind. 

• Marquez has allowed 4+ runs in 9 of his 13 starts. 

• Among pitchers who have thrown 60+ IP: His 7.00 ERA is third-worst in MLB and his .315 opponents’ batting average is second-worst.

• He allowed 11 hits and seven runs vs. the Braves in April.

Albies has been a disappointment (.646 OPS), but he’ll have some big bats (Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson) in front of him.

That’s likely to create run-producing spots against Marquez or Colorado’s bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen (28th in FIP).

Friday’s best pitcher prop

Gordon over 4.5 Ks (+123): The Minnesota Twins haven’t seen many southpaws recently, but they’ve been carved up when they do.

That makes this light line an attractive plus-money play.

Over the last month, only one left-hander has failed to clear this line against them. Note: The Athletics used openers before turning to lefties for bulk innings in their recent series vs. Minnesota.

• Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 6 Ks
• Jeffrey Springs (Athletics): 7 Ks
• Jacob Lopez (Athletics): 9 Ks
• Kris Bubic (Royals): 9 Ks
• Noah Cameron (Royals): 8 Ks

The 26-year-old rookie has cleared this line in three of his five starts and landed on four in another outing.

He has an above-average 23.6% K rate and had solid strikeout totals in the minors.

Gordon will look to build on those numbers against a Twins team that has the fifth-highest K rate vs. LHPs.

MLB prop picks made at 12:45 p.m. ET on 06/13/2025.

Three players are featured in Thursday’s top prop picks for the light eight-game MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon should carve up the Pittsburgh Pirates and continue to work deep, which I expect will help him clear his strikeout line. I have additional plays on one hot hitter and another who punishes with a platoon advantage.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 12, featuring predictions on Jeremy Pena and Riley Greene.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Taillon over 4.5 Ks (-127)

The Cubs righty has been working deep and the weather is expected to be on his side tonight. Taillon’s opponent is a favourable one, too, setting him up for a strong start at home. 

The 33-year-old has worked six-plus innings in all but one of his seven starts since the beginning of May. 

With the wind expected to be blowing in at Wrigley Field against a weak Pirates lineup, offence should be hard to come by for Pittsburgh.

That would set up Taillon for another deep outing, increasing his opportunities to pile up punchouts. 

Pittsburgh ranks 27th in MLB in wRC+ vs. righties and has the fifth-highest K rate in the majors. 

Taillon isn’t a big strikeout arm but is 7-6 against this line on the season and has pitched particularly well at his home park.

Key stat: Taillon has a 2.70 ERA in six home starts.

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Greene over 1.5 total bases (+100): The Detroit Tigers slugger might face a platoon disadvantage to start this game with lefty Keegan Akin opening for the Baltimore Orioles.

But righty Dean Kremer is expected to get the bulk of the innings for Baltimore and he’s been hammered by left-handed hitters.

• Kremer vs. LHBs: .331/.357/.550
• Greene vs. RHPs: .304/.340/.560

Greene should hopefully get a couple of opportunities against Kremer in favourable hitting conditions in Baltimore.

Of Greene’s 13 homers, 12 have come against right-handers.

Camden Yards has been the best home run-hitting park in MLB this season, per Baseball Savant, and is generally one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.

Pena over 1.5 total bases (-105): Pena is having a monster season and has been crushing the ball in June. And he’s been excellent at home all year.

• June: .421/.436/.553
• Home: .368/.425/.566

The Houston Astros’ shortstop is having a career year at the plate (146 wRC+) and has multi-hit games in six of nine contests this month.

Pena, sporting a career-low K rate, has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games.

His Astros see Chicago White Sox starter Davis Martin, who is having a respectable season, but the unimposing arm struggles to miss bats and has a 5.56 xERA.

MLB prop picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 06/12/2025.

Two starting pitchers and J.P. Crawford make up today’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Atlanta Braves righty Grant Holmes has consistently been clearing his outs line and I expect him to do it again against the Milwaukee Brewers. Dylan Cease, meanwhile, is fade-worthy in a challenging matchup vs. the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers.

Check out my best MLB prop bets for Tuesday, June 10.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Crawford over 0.5 runs (+100)

Crawford sits atop the Seattle Mariners’ lineup with a team-leading .285 average and .402 on-base percentage.

Those marks are even a little better vs. righties (.314, .411), and he’ll see a struggling one tonight.

The Mariners run into the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt, who’s having a forgettable season following a strong sophomore year.

• Pfaadt’s Ks are way down, his homers are up and his hard-hit rate has soared, leading to a 5.51 ERA (6.95 xERA).

• He has allowed 14 runs over his last two starts and punched out two or fewer in three of his last four.

The Diamondbacks had to use seven relievers in yesterday’s extra-inning win, so they probably won’t be quick to turn to their bullpen unless Pfaadt is getting rocked.

Either way, we’re looking at a good scenario. If Pfaadt is getting lit, that’s good news for this play. And if not, it will give Crawford and the Mariners more opportunities against a scuffling arm.

Crawford will bat in front of Julio Rodriguez (.323 BA in June) and Cal Raleigh, the MLB leader in homers.

Key stat: Crawford is slashing .400/.500/.500 in June.

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Best MLB picks

Cease under 16.5 outs (-105): Not only has Cease struggled to top this line, but he’s up against the best right-handed hitting team in the majors.

The Dodgers pace MLB with a 128 wRC+ vs. RHPs.

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are both slugging over .600 against righties with an OPS north of 1.000. That has helped power the Dodgers to top MLB ranks in these categories as well: 

• BB rate (10.5%)
• AVG (.269)
• OBP (.349)

A league-averageish walk rate and high volume of strikeouts run up Cease’s pitch counts, leading to a 5-8 mark against this line.

Holmes over 16.5 outs (-106): Holmes is coming off his shortest start of the season (3.1 innings), but is still 8-2 against this line over his last 10 outings. 

Holmes gets the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 25th in MLB in wRC+ vs. right-handers and 28th in slugging. 

They have a putrid 77 wRC+ (27th in MLB) at their pitcher-friendly home park, making this a good bounce-back spot for Holmes. 

Before the clunker in his last start, Holmes put up a 3.22 ERA with a 9.41 K/9 rate in six May outings.

MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 06/10/2025.