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MLB 2025 All-Star Game MVP odds: Superstars Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge favourites to win

The first half of the 2025 MLB season wraps up with the All-Star Game at Truist Park on Tuesday, July 15.

The latest: To no surprise, the game’s best players and biggest stars are the favourites to win MVP: Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. They have five combined regular-season MVPs but neither has won ASG MVP before.

Check out our MLB All-Star Game MVP odds board below for the other betting favourites at this year’s Midsummer Classic.

MLB All-Star Game MVP odds

Note: Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Top favourites	MVP betting odds
Shohei Ohtani	+550
Aaron Judge	+700
Ronald Acuna Jr.	+1,000
Cal Raleigh	+1,000
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+1,200
Fernando Tatis Jr.	+1,500
Bobby Witt Jr.	+1,800
Freddie Freeman	+2,500
Manny Machado	+2,500
Ketel Marte	+2,500
Kyle Tucker	+2,500
Pete Alonso	+3,000
Junior Caminero	+3,000
Elly De La Cruz	+3,000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	+3,000

MLB All-Star Game MVP odds as of 11:55 a.m. on 07/14/2025.

The favourites: Ohtani (+550) & Judge (+700)

The two mega-stars are the only players with odds inside of 10-to-1.

Each won MVP of their respective leagues last year and are enormous favourites to repeat.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how the studs performed in the first half:

Ohtani leads the NL in homers; Judge is 2nd in the AL.

Judge leads MLB in WAR, Ohtani is 2nd in the NL.

Ohtani leads the NL in slugging; Judge leads MLB.

Judge leads MLB in wRC+; Ohtani is 2nd in the NL.

Ohtani & Judge are 1-2 in MLB in runs scored.

The New York Yankees captain is flirting with a Triple Crown, trailing Cal Raleigh by three homers and one RBI, while leading MLB with a .355 average.

Ohtani is putting up historic numbers out of the leadoff spot for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he’s back pitching again.

He has allowed one run in five appearances, has a 10.0 K/9 rate and has touched 100 mph.

These two are in a league of their own.

All-Star Game MVP contenders

The contenders are plentiful. This is the All-Star Game after all.

The pitchers with the shortest odds are starters Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes at +4,000 apiece.

But keep in mind, pitchers don’t generally go deep enough to win this award. Only two pitchers since Pedro Martinez in 1999 have won ASG MVP.

There are two hometown stars to back in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson if you want to play that angle.

Acuna missed nearly two months but has been dynamite since his return in late May (.323 average, 1.025 OPS) and is starting in the outfield.

The power-hitting Olson is a reserve, but has big pop and is probably good for a couple of at-bats playing at home.

If you want to back the Toronto Blue Jays, your options are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.

Guerrero is the AL’s starting first baseman, which probably ensures him half the game, while Kirk is the backup to Raleigh, the MLB leader in homers.

If you want to target the starting position players, here are your options:

American League ASG starters

C: Raleigh (Mariners)
1B: Guerrero (Blue Jays)
2B: Gleyber Torres (Tigers)
3B: Junior Caminero (Rays)
SS: Jacob Wilson (Athletics)
OF: Judge (Yankees)
OF: Riley Greene (Tigers)
OF: Javier Baez (Tigers)
DH: Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles)

National League ASG starters

C: Will Smith (Dodgers)
1B: Freddie Freeman (Dodgers)
2B: Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks)
3B: Manny Machado (Padres)
SS: Francisco Lindor (Mets)
OF: Acuna (Braves)
OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs)
OF: Kyle Tucker (Cubs)
DH: Ohtani (Dodgers)

Best MLB prop bets July 11: Back Dustin May and Elly De La Cruz, fade Ryne Nelson

Two starting pitchers in the late window highlight the best MLB prop picks for Friday’s slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Dustin May is coming off his best performance of the season and I like him to keep the strikeouts coming despite the jump up in competition. On the other hand, I don’t expect Ryne Nelson to continue his run of deep outings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 11, featuring a prediction on Cincinnati Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: May over 4.5 strikeouts (-106)

This is a light line for a starter and a solid play at this price.

We’re almost getting even-money odds for a pitcher with a slightly above-average K/9 rate coming off a season-high nine-strikeout game in his longest outing of the year (vs. the White Sox).

The righty started the year 8-2 against this line.

He’s 3-3 since, but faced three of the five-hardest teams to K (Royals, Padres and Nationals).

May faced the Giants at home in that six-start stretch (fanning three), but now gets them on the road at their pitcher-friendly park.

San Francisco’s lineup has struggled over the last two weeks (83 wRC+) and has been a below-average offence at home.

May doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he misses enough. The Giants have cut down on Ks, but have the 10th-highest strikeout rate in MLB.

Key stat: Opposing starters have topped this line in seven of the Giants’ last 10 games.

Best MLB picks

Nelson under 17.5 outs (-134): Don’t overlook L.A. The club has a top-10 offence over the last two weeks and crushes bombs.

The Angels are fifth in MLB in homers and are getting good production out of the middle of their order.

July OPS:

Taylor Ward: .821
Jo Adell: .853
Jorge Soler: .863
Mike Trout: .967

Weather reports call for clear skies and light wind blowing out at Angel Stadium, consistently one of MLB’s top-hitting environments.

Nelson, who started the season in the bullpen, has been throwing great but has failed to touch 90 pitches in an outing.

He has cleared this line in consecutive starts after doing so once in his previous seven.

Jake Woodford kept Arizona’s bullpen in good shape yesterday, working three innings after Eduardo Rodriguez completed four frames.

In the three games before that, Diamondbacks starters went six, seven and eight innings.

Arizona’s bullpen will be in good shape tonight.

De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-134): German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies’ dreadful bullpen at Great American Ballpark… what could go wrong? Plenty.

I’d like a better price on this De La Cruz prop, but this is the cost of doing business.

De La Cruz’s home park is one of the game’s most hitter-friendly venues, which he takes full advantage of. And Marquez is one of the game’s most hitter-friendly pitchers.

The switch-hitting De La Cruz will start the game from the left side, which is where he primarily does damage.

De La Cruz’s OPS splits in his three seasons:

OPS vs. RHPs: .912, .876, .799
OPS vs. LHPs: .681, .661, .495

Lefty batters vs. Marquez: .312 average, .507 slugging, .882 OPS. Despite his home park being Coors Field, he’s been worse on the road (6.48 ERA vs. 5.03).

De La Cruz is batting .290 at home with an .858 OPS. He has multi-hit games in four of his last seven contests.

MLB prop picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 07/11/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 11: Back Dustin May and Elly De La Cruz, fade Ryne Nelson

Two starting pitchers in the late window highlight the best MLB prop picks for Friday’s slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Dustin May is coming off his best performance of the season and I like him to keep the strikeouts coming despite the jump up in competition. On the other hand, I don’t expect Ryne Nelson to continue his run of deep outings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 11, featuring a prediction on Cincinnati Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: May over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)

This is a light line for a starter and a solid play at this price.

We’re almost getting even-money odds for a pitcher with a slightly above-average K/9 rate coming off a season-high nine-strikeout game in his longest outing of the year (vs. the White Sox).

The righty started the year 8-2 against this line.

He’s 3-3 since, but faced three of the five-hardest teams to K (Royals, Padres and Nationals).

May faced the Giants at home in that six-start stretch (fanning three), but now gets them on the road at their pitcher-friendly park.

San Francisco’s lineup has struggled over the last two weeks (83 wRC+) and has been a below-average offence at home.

May doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he misses enough. The Giants have cut down on Ks, but have the 10th-highest strikeout rate in MLB.

Key stat: Opposing starters have topped this line in seven of the Giants’ last 10 games.

Embed: #115770

Best MLB picks

Nelson under 17.5 outs (-114): Don’t overlook L.A. The club has a top-10 offence over the last two weeks and crushes bombs.

The Angels are fifth in MLB in homers and are getting good production out of the middle of their order.

July OPS:

Taylor Ward: .821
Jo Adell: .853
Jorge Soler: .863
Mike Trout: .967

Weather reports call for clear skies and light wind blowing out at Angel Stadium, consistently one of MLB’s top-hitting environments.

Nelson, who started the season in the bullpen, has been throwing great but has failed to touch 90 pitches in an outing.

He has cleared this line in consecutive starts after doing so once in his previous seven.

Jake Woodford kept Arizona’s bullpen in good shape yesterday, working three innings after Eduardo Rodriguez completed four frames.

In the three games before that, Diamondbacks starters went six, seven and eight innings.

Arizona’s bullpen will be in good shape tonight.

De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-125): German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies’ dreadful bullpen at Great American Ballpark… what could go wrong? Plenty.

I’d like a better price on this De La Cruz prop, but this is the cost of doing business.

De La Cruz’s home park is one of the game’s most hitter-friendly venues, which he takes full advantage of. And Marquez is one of the game’s most hitter-friendly pitchers.

The switch-hitting De La Cruz will start the game from the left side, which is where he primarily does damage.

De La Cruz’s OPS splits in his three seasons:

OPS vs. RHPs: .912, .876, .799
OPS vs. LHPs: .681, .661, .495

Lefty batters vs. Marquez: .312 average, .507 slugging, .882 OPS. Despite his home park being Coors Field, he’s been worse on the road (6.48 ERA vs. 5.03).

De La Cruz is batting .290 at home with an .858 OPS. He has multi-hit games in four of his last seven contests.

MLB prop picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 07/11/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 10: Back Matt Olson and CJ Abrams, fade Walker Buehler vs. Rays

The best MLB prop picks for Thursday feature two hitters and a fade on a starting pitcher.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Matt Olson and CJ Abrams are hot and I expect them both to take advantage of strong matchups tonight.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 10, featuring a prediction on Walker Buehler.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Olson over 1.5 total bases (+100)

I’d like a right-handed hitter against the Athletics’ JP Sears but the prices on Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley — the Atlanta Braves’ two best hitters — are steep.

Sears has been walloped by righties and pitched poorly at his home stadium, Sutter Health Park, one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.

But I won’t let the left-on-left matchup cause me to ignore how dangerous Olson has been.

For starters, he has handled southpaws just fine over the last two seasons:

Situation	AVG	OBP	SLG
2025 vs. LHP	.290	.340	.495
2025 vs. RHP	.262	.380	.484
2024 vs. LHP	.263	.321	.515
2024 vs. RHP	.240	.337	.434

Further, he’s on a heater and can be had at good value.

Olson has a 1.041 OPS in July.

He has hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games, slashing .361/.426/.541 over that stretch.

Scoring is expected (the projected total is 10 runs as of Thursday morning), and the Braves are surely going to see some of the Athletics’ bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen, too (AL-worst 5.66 ERA).

Key stat: Olson is top 15 in MLB in average (.323) and wRC+ (168) since June 1.

Best MLB picks

Buehler under 15.5 outs (-150): The best offence in baseball, per wRC+, over the last 30 days belongs to the Houston Astros. The Tampa Bay Rays are No. 2.

Boston is on a heater, but the Rays are ahead of them in the standings. They hold a wild-card spot and are scoring the seventh-most runs per game.

Dynamite pitching performances from Brayan Bello (complete game) and Lucas Giolito (six scoreless) in consecutive games helped Boston preserve its bullpen ahead of this key final series before the break.

With fresh arms and plenty to play for, there’s no need to push Buehler, who has a difficult matchup at his offensive-minded home park.

Buehler has thrown well in two starts against Tampa but has gone under this number in four straight. He’s 2-7 vs. this line since May.

The veteran has an unsightly 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, allowing five-plus runs in four of his last seven outings.

Tampa is batting an MLB-best .268 vs. righties.

Abrams over 0.5 runs (-125): There are several starters worth targeting tonight, and St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas is one of them.

Lefty hitters are torching Mikolas, who has allowed 14 runs and eight homers in his last two outings. He has a 7.59 ERA since the start of June.

Mikolas will see two excellent left-handed hitters at the top of the Washington Nationals lineup, including Abrams.

Abrams has scored in 58.4% of the games he’s started, per Team Rankings, which is second in MLB to Aaron Judge.

The leadoff man has eight runs in as many games this month, scoring in all but one contest.

Abrams enters with career-best numbers in all three slash categories and is getting on base at a .355 clip in July.

Washington’s shortstop hits in front of one of the game’s best hitters, James Wood, who is worth a look on the prop market as well.

MLB prop picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 10: Back Matt Olson and CJ Abrams, fade Walker Buehler vs. Rays

The best MLB prop picks for Thursday feature two hitters and a fade on a starting pitcher.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Matt Olson and CJ Abrams are hot and I expect them both to take advantage of strong matchups tonight.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 10, featuring a prediction on Walker Buehler.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Olson over 1.5 total bases (-107)

I’d like a right-handed hitter against the Athletics’ JP Sears but the prices on Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley — the Atlanta Braves’ two best hitters — are steep.

Sears has been walloped by righties and pitched poorly at his home stadium, Sutter Health Park, one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.

But I won’t let the left-on-left matchup cause me to ignore how dangerous Olson has been.

For starters, he has handled southpaws just fine over the last two seasons:

Situation	AVG	OBP	SLG
2025 vs. LHP	.290	.340	.495
2025 vs. RHP	.262	.380	.484
2024 vs. LHP	.263	.321	.515
2024 vs. RHP	.240	.337	.434

Further, he’s on a heater and can be had at good value.

Olson has a 1.041 OPS in July.

He has hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games, slashing .361/.426/.541 over that stretch.

Scoring is expected (the projected total is 10 runs as of Thursday morning), and the Braves are surely going to see some of the Athletics’ bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen, too (AL-worst 5.66 ERA).

Key stat: Olson is top 15 in MLB in average (.323) and wRC+ (168) since June 1.

Embed: #115719

Best MLB picks

Buehler under 15.5 outs (-125): The best offence in baseball, per wRC+, over the last 30 days belongs to the Houston Astros. The Tampa Bay Rays are No. 2.

Boston is on a heater, but the Rays are ahead of them in the standings. They hold a wild-card spot and are scoring the seventh-most runs per game.

Dynamite pitching performances from Brayan Bello (complete game) and Lucas Giolito (six scoreless) in consecutive games helped Boston preserve its bullpen ahead of this key final series before the break.

With fresh arms and plenty to play for, there’s no need to push Buehler, who has a difficult matchup at his offensive-minded home park.

Buehler has thrown well in two starts against Tampa but has gone under this number in four straight. He’s 2-7 vs. this line since May.

The veteran has an unsightly 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, allowing five-plus runs in four of his last seven outings.

Tampa is batting an MLB-best .268 vs. righties.

Abrams over 0.5 runs (+102): There are several starters worth targeting tonight, and St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas is one of them.

Lefty hitters are torching Mikolas, who has allowed 14 runs and eight homers in his last two outings. He has a 7.59 ERA since the start of June.

Mikolas will see two excellent left-handed hitters at the top of the Washington Nationals lineup, including Abrams.

Abrams has scored in 58.4% of the games he’s started, per Team Rankings, which is second in MLB to Aaron Judge.

The leadoff man has eight runs in as many games this month, scoring in all but one contest.

Abrams enters with career-best numbers in all three slash categories and is getting on base at a .355 clip in July.

Washington’s shortstop hits in front of one of the game’s best hitters, James Wood, who is worth a look on the prop market as well.

MLB prop picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 9: Fade Alcantara, back Duran and Seager to do damage

Sandy Alcantara headlines the best MLB prop picks for Wednesday’s all-day baseball action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I don’t trust the struggling former Cy Young winner to pitch deep at a premium hitter’s park, making him a fade on his total outs prop.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 9, featuring predictions on Jarren Duran and Corey Seager.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Alcantara under 17.5 outs (+115)

The Miami Marlins right-hander has cleared this line in five of his last six outings, though he has allowed 12 runs over his last two starts and has a 4.89 ERA over that stretch.

It’s been a challenging first season back since undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Despite elite velocity, Alcantara has a career-low strikeout rate and career-high ERA (7.01).

Of 150 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings this season, his ERA is the highest of the bunch.

The Marlins are in Cincinnati, meaning Alcantara is pitching in a difficult environment.

Great American Ballpark has been the third-most hitter-friendly venue in baseball over the last three seasons and the second-best park to go deep at, according to Baseball Savant.

While Alcantara has never struggled much with the long ball, he does sport a career-high HR/9 rate.

Another layer I’m considering is that Miami has gotten decent length from its starters over the last three games. The Marlins play through to the all-star break, concluding a stretch of games in 13 straight days to close out the first half.

So their bullpen has been given a breather of sorts at an opportune time.

Key stat: Alcantara is 6-11 against this line and allowed four-plus runs 10 times this season.

Embed: #115662

Best MLB picks

Seager over 1.5 total bases (-115): The Texas Rangers star is heating up, recording a hit in 12 of his last 13 games and driving the ball with authority.

Seager has six bombs over that stretch.

He’s hitting .333 and slugging .771. His OPS is 1.247.

The shortstop has scored 15 times and driven in 12 runs.

Thanks to the tear, Seager’s season-long OPS has spiked from .710 to .830.

Seager does damage vs. righties and sees a hittable one tonight in the Los Angeles Angels’ Kyle Hendricks (4.68 ERA, bottom-10 K rate among qualifiers).

The 31-year-old Seager has an .860 OPS against right-handers. He had a .944 mark last season and 1.075 in 2023.

Seager has topped this line in five of seven July games.

Duran over 0.5 RBI (+128): Don’t look now, but the Boston Red Sox are hot. And so is Duran.

Duran has been a disappointment following his 2024 breakout, but here’s what he’s done over his last 15 games:

.273/.344/.545
9 extra-base hits
9 RBI

He was recently dropped out of the leadoff spot, hitting seventh last night and no higher than cleanup over his last four games.

That has made him a great look on the RBI market for Boston, which has won five straight, scoring nine-plus runs four times.

The Red Sox have scored 19 on the Rockies in the first two games of this series. Tonight, they see Colorado’s worst arm, Antonio Senzatela, and a bullpen that has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball.

Lefties are hitting .364 off Senzatela with a .937 OPS.

Duran is much better at home (.294 average, .866 OPS vs. .226/.620) and should have multiple chances to cash runners tonight.

MLB prop picks made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 07/09/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 8: Back Juan Soto, Jurickson Profar and Ryan Pepiot on Tuesday

New York Mets star Juan Soto highlights Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Soto is tearing the cover off the ball and has a plus matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Look for the all-star snub to do damage.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 8, featuring predictions on Ryan Pepiot and Jurickson Profar.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Soto over 1.5 total bases (+104)

Soto has taken plenty of flak in his debut season with the Mets after signing a mega contract, but he’s suddenly up to 21 homers, a .904 OPS, leads MLB in walk rate and is eighth in wRC+.

The 26-year-old stud has especially been raking of late. Here’s a look at his last 15 games:

.353/.450/.784
7 homers
13 runs
14 RBI

Soto doesn’t cash his total bases prop at the same rate as other star hitters due to his walk rate, but he has supreme power (.245 ISO, top 20 in MLB) and elite batted-ball metrics, ranking in the 99th percentile in expected slugging and average exit velocity.

The Mets will see Orioles starter Brandon Young, who has struggled (7.02 ERA) in all four of his MLB outings.

Young has yet to complete five innings, allowing three-plus runs each time out. Left-handed batters are hitting .333 off him with a 1.008 OPS.

Following Young will be an Orioles bullpen that ranks in the bottom third in MLB in home run rate and ERA.

There are some weather concerns tonight, but Camden Yards has been one of the best offensive environments and home run-hitting venues in baseball this season.

Key stat: Soto is slugging .685 since June 1, the second-best mark in baseball.

Embed: #115639

Best MLB picks

Profar over 0.5 RBI (+175): Profar is just five games back from his PED suspension, but he’s off to a good start.

Hits in 4 of the 5 games
Two multi-hit games
2 home runs

The sample is too small to take much from, but the veteran is coming off the best season of his career (24 homers, .839 OPS) and hits behind some excellent bats in the Atlanta Braves lineup.

Profar hit .300 and slugged .500 vs. lefties last year and sees one tonight (Jeffrey Springs) at a great hitter’s stadium.

The Athletics’ Sutter Health Park ranks tied for the top hitting environment in baseball, alongside Coors Field.

Profar hit leadoff last game but typical No. 1 hitter Ronald Acuna Jr. had the day off. He had been in the cleanup and No. 5 spots since his return.

Pepiot over 5.5 Ks (-114): The Tampa Bay Rays righty followed up one of his worst performances of the season with a nine-strikeout gem his last time out.

Pepiot is generally enjoying another strong season, his second with the Rays.

He can miss bats with several offerings, leading to an above-average K rate and more hits than misses on this prop lately.

Pepiot has cleared this line in five of his last six outings, including once vs. the Detroit Tigers, his opponent tonight.

The 27-year-old threw five innings of three-hit, one-run ball with seven Ks against the Tigers on June 21.

Detroit has the sixth-highest K rate in MLB vs. right-handers.

MLB prop picks made at 1:13 p.m. ET on 07/08/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 3: Back hot-hitters Jazz Chisholm and Joe Adell

Jazz Chisholm highlights the top prop picks for MLB’s lighter Thursday slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Chisholm has been raking and will enjoy a platoon advantage, giving me confidence he’ll stay hot for the reeling New York Yankees, who are looking to avoid a four-game sweep to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 3, featuring predictions on Joe Adell and Jake Irvin.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Chisholm over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-112)

The Yankees’ third baseman no doubt benefits from hitting at his home park (1.025 OPS at home, .578 on the road), but he’s been hammering the ball and slugs right-handed pitching.

At this gargantuan price, he’s a worthwhile play for me.

Vs. RHPs: 13 of 14 HR, .563 SLG, .909 OPS
Since June 1: 7 HR, .305/.380/.579

Chisholm has nine multi-hit contests over that 26-game stretch. He entered June (after missing all of May) with a .181 average and .714 OPS. Chisolm is up to .240 and .829, respectively.

The Yankees see righty Chris Bassitt, who was clobbered in his last start and surrendered a pair of bombs and four runs when he faced New York earlier this season.

Left-handed hitters are slugging nearly 100 points higher vs. Bassitt and are hitting him for a .287 average.

And it’s fair to wonder whether Toronto’s bullpen will be at its sharpest after the club used four high-leverage relievers each for an inning-plus last night after deploying five relief arms in both of the first two games of the series.

Key stat: Chisholm is 10-4 against this line over his last 14 games.

Best MLB picks

Irvin over 4.5 Ks (+105): Irvin’s K rate has tumbled this season, but the Washington Nationals righty has cleared this line in three straight outings.

He gets the Detroit Tigers, while a difficult matchup for any pitcher, who strike out at the fifth-highest K rate in MLB vs. right-handers.

Irvin will be at home, where he’s pitched significantly better this season (3.59 ERA vs. 5.79) — and he generally gives the Nationals innings.

The 28-year-old had a stretch earlier in the season where he worked into the sixth inning in nine straight outings. He’s 5-3 against this line over his last eight after starting the year on a 3-6 run.

Adell over 0.5 RBI (+155): It appears Adell, a 2017 first-round pick, is figuring things out.

The former top prospect struggled over parts of five seasons entering the year but heads into tonight two homers off the personal-best 20 he hit last year and has career-high marks in slugging (.494) and OPS (.811).

Adell has moved up to a run-producing spot in the Los Angeles Angels’ order, hitting behind a group of bats who can provide damage. And Adell is as hot as he’s been all season:

OPS by month: April (.514), May (.836), June (1.038).

.340/.421/.680 over a 13-game hit streak.

Five homers & 12 RBI over that stretch.

The Angels get Atlanta Braves righty Bryce Elder, who had an 8.25 ERA over five June starts.

Elder allowed a season-high 10 runs and three homers in his last outing and is coming off a brutal 2024. The softer-throwing righty is not a big swing-and-miss arm and is susceptible to blow-ups.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 07/03/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 3: Back hot-hitters Jazz Chisholm and Joe Adell

Jazz Chisholm highlights the top prop picks for MLB’s lighter Thursday slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Chisholm has been raking and will enjoy a platoon advantage, giving me confidence he’ll stay hot for the reeling New York Yankees, who are looking to avoid a four-game sweep to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 3, featuring predictions on Joe Adell and Jake Irvin.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Chisholm over 1.5 total bases (+160)

The Yankees’ third baseman no doubt benefits from hitting at his home park (1.025 OPS at home, .578 on the road), but he’s been hammering the ball and slugs right-handed pitching.

At this gargantuan price, he’s a worthwhile play for me.

Vs. RHPs: 13 of 14 HR, .563 SLG, .909 OPS
Since June 1: 7 HR, .305/.380/.579

Chisholm has nine multi-hit contests over that 26-game stretch. He entered June (after missing all of May) with a .181 average and .714 OPS. Chisolm is up to .240 and .829, respectively.

The Yankees see righty Chris Bassitt, who was clobbered in his last start and surrendered a pair of bombs and four runs when he faced New York earlier this season.

Left-handed hitters are slugging nearly 100 points higher vs. Bassitt and are hitting him for a .287 average.

And it’s fair to wonder whether Toronto’s bullpen will be at its sharpest after the club used four high-leverage relievers each for an inning-plus last night after deploying five relief arms in both of the first two games of the series.

Key stat: Chisholm is 9-6 against this line over his last 15 games.

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Best MLB picks

Irvin over 4.5 Ks (+117): Irvin’s K rate has tumbled this season, but the Washington Nationals righty has cleared this line in three straight outings.

He gets the Detroit Tigers, while a difficult matchup for any pitcher, who strike out at the fifth-highest K rate in MLB vs. right-handers.

Irvin will be at home, where he’s pitched significantly better this season (3.59 ERA vs. 5.79) — and he generally gives the Nationals innings.

The 28-year-old had a stretch earlier in the season where he worked into the sixth inning in nine straight outings. He’s 5-3 against this line over his last eight after starting the year on a 3-6 run.

Adell over 0.5 RBI (+180): It appears Adell, a 2017 first-round pick, is figuring things out.

The former top prospect struggled over parts of five seasons entering the year but heads into tonight two homers off the personal-best 20 he hit last year and has career-high marks in slugging (.494) and OPS (.811).

Adell has moved up to a run-producing spot in the Los Angeles Angels’ order, hitting behind a group of bats who can provide damage. And Adell is as hot as he’s been all season:

OPS by month: April (.514), May (.836), June (1.038).

.340/.421/.680 over a 13-game hit streak.

Five homers & 12 RBI over that stretch.

The Angels get Atlanta Braves righty Bryce Elder, who had an 8.25 ERA over five June starts.

Elder allowed a season-high 10 runs and three homers in his last outing and is coming off a brutal 2024. The softer-throwing righty is not a big swing-and-miss arm and is susceptible to blow-ups.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 07/03/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 2: Back Hunter Brown, Clayton Kershaw and Addison Barger for Wednesday’s 19-game slate

Two big-name starting pitchers highlight the best prop picks for Wednesday’s loaded MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: There are 19 games today! That provides us with all-day betting action and Houston Astros righty Hunter Brown tops the list as my No. 1 target. Brown has been dominating and gets one of his juiciest matchups yet: a date with the lowly Colorado Rockies.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for June 27, featuring predictions on Clayton Kershaw — who gets his own tasty opponent — and Toronto Blue Jays sophomore Addison Barger.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Brown over 6.5 Ks (-134)

This isn’t a huge line to clear but it’s big enough to warrant consideration. And the venue, Coors Field, adds its own level of risk.

But there are too many positives to ignore, making this a smash play as far as I’m concerned.

Brown has been one of the best pitchers in MLB by several metrics.

He leads all starters in ERA (1.84) and is third in strikeout rate (32.1 K%). Brown’s also top 10 in FIP, and is allowing homers and walks at below-average rates.

The 26-year-old has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts, handling opponents far more potent than this.

Colorado has the highest K rate vs. RHPs and is last in wRC+.

The Rockies are an MLB-worst 19-66 and are scoring the fourth-fewest runs per game.

Brown enters this salivating matchup having punched out nine-plus batters in three of his last four outings.

Key stat: Brown is 11-5 vs. a 6.5 strikeout line this season.

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Best MLB picks

Kershaw over 4.5 Ks (-121): The Los Angeles Dodgers veteran has generally been strong since making his season debut in mid-May, and he’s been particularly excellent over his last three outings.

June 26 @ COL: 6 IP, 2, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
June 20 vs. WSH: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K
June 14 vs. SF: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Kershaw had a season-high seven strikeouts before that three-start stretch, meaning he has cleared this line in three of his last four outings.

The 37-year-old will see the Chicago White Sox, who have the second-highest K rate in MLB vs. southpaws.

Chicago has been punched out more than all but two teams over the last 30 days, sporting the second-worst wRC+ over that time.

Barger over 0.5 runs (+123): Barger has slowed a bit but he’s still been productive and has lately been the No. 2 hitter in what’s been a potent lineup for the sizzling Jays.

That puts him directly in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk and George Springer, a trio of batters hitting the ball exceptionally well.

New York Yankees starter Will Warren has been dynamite against right-handers, but left-handers have handled him much better, giving Barger (.828 OPS vs. RHPs, .639 vs. LHPs) an excellent platoon advantage.

Since May 29, only 13 players have scored more runs than the 25-year-old Barger.

24 runs in 27 games
.265/.321/.551 slash line
7 HR, 142 wRC+

I like the bats behind Barger, but he’s more than capable of cashing this on his own. All 16 of his career home runs have come against righties.

MLB prop picks made at 11:01 a.m. ET on 07/02/2025.