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Best MLB prop bets July 30: Back Kyle Stowers and Randy Arozarena, fade Jose Soriano

Two hot power bats and a starting pitcher are featured in today’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I’m backing Kyle Stowers and Randy Arozarena on their total bases props. Both enter Wednesday swinging well and have favourable matchups tonight.

Check out my best MLB prop bets for July 30, which includes a prediction on Los Angeles Angels starter Jose Soriano.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+130)

This is an enticing price for one of baseball’s most productive hitters in July.

Stowers is destroying the baseball and faces a low-strikeout arm who’s among the most homer-prone pitchers in the game.

St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas has the 14th-worst HR/9 rate and the 11th-worst K/9 among pitchers who have thrown 100 innings this season.

He’s pitched better at his home park, Busch Stadium, where tonight’s game is taking place, but he also has a 6.17 ERA over his last nine starts.

Mikolas has allowed 14 homers over that stretch.

The left-handed hitting Stowers has a robust 1.334 OPS this month. Here’s his July production, with MLB ranks in parentheses:

.384 average (3rd)
.471 OBP (2nd)
.863 SLG (2nd)
256 wRC+ (2nd)
10 homers (3rd)

Stowers also punishes righties. He’s batting .305 off them with 23 homers.

Against RHPs, only MVP favourites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have a better slugging percentage than Stowers’ mark of .632.

Key stat: Stowers is 8-2 vs. this line over his last 10 games.

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Best MLB picks

Arozarena over 1.5 total bases (+100): I’m going back to a play that didn’t hit for me the other night. But I’m betting on Arozarena for the same reasons.

He has the platoon advantage and hits left-handed pitching well.

Tonight’s game is at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB.

Arozarena is enjoying his best month of the season.

The Athletics are trotting out southpaw Jeffrey Springs at their home stadium, Sutter Health Park. It’s the No. 2 offensive environment in MLB (next to Coors Field), according to Baseball Savant.

Arozarena has hit lefties for average and power, batting .284 and slugging .532, and will see one of MLB’s worst bullpens following Springs.

The Seattle Mariners outfielder is slugging .622 in July with 10 home runs, by far his best marks of any month.

Soriano under 17.5 outs (-110): The Angels haven’t gotten much length from their starters this series but they can breathe with an off day tomorrow.

Soriano has thrown seven-plus innings an impressive seven times this season and cleared this line in 12 of 22 starts.

But he’s failed to go more than five frames in three of his last four home starts, and has pitched poorly at Angel Stadium this season.

With an elite ground ball rate and fastball velocity, Soriano is capable of dominant outings. Yet he’s extremely inconsistent, walking too many batters with a below-average strikeout rate.

Soriano has a 5.37 ERA at his hitter-friendly home park and has struggled in both outings vs. the Texas Rangers this season.

The righty has allowed eight runs to Texas, failing to top 17.5 outs both times.

MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 07/30/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles SGP predictions July 30: Back Toronto and Vladdy at +525

The Toronto Blue Jays enter Wednesday’s series finale against the Baltimore Orioles on their longest losing streak since early May.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has cooled down, dropping four straight and is at risk of getting swept by the last-place Orioles. With Jose Berrios on the mound, I expect the Jays to end the skid in today’s matinee at Camden Yards.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Orioles same-game parlay predictions for July 30, featuring Gunnar Henderson and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero over 1.5 bases | Henderson over 1.5 bases (+525)

Toronto moneyline (-108): Today’s starting pitching matchup is Berrios vs. Dean Kremer.

That’s about a wash as far as I’m concerned, meaning we’re getting a first-place team — the best in the American League — at an excellent price.

Baltimore has taken it to the Blue Jays this series, but these types of swings are common in a 162-game season. Just like Toronto isn’t as good as the team that won 19 of 23 games, it isn’t as bad as the club that’s been outscored 30-10 this series.

Berrios generally gives the Jays a shot, and then some.

The Jays are 14-8 over Berrios’ 22 starts.

In his last 11 outings, they’ve reeled off a 9-2 mark.

Berrios has a 3.43 ERA over that stretch, a bit lower than his season-long mark (3.83).

Berrios has been hit around this month but he’s also allowed one or zero runs in five of 10 starts since June.

He’s capable of a big outing, and Toronto should have all its high-leverage relievers available today. Also, George Springer (head) could be back in the lineup.

Kremer has delivered similar results but Toronto has the better bullpen and lineup. As a pick’em play, Toronto moneyline is an overwhelmingly clear choice for me.

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MLB SGP legs

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-127): The all-star first baseman was quiet in yesterday’s doubleheader but has been on a second-half tear.

He’s hitting .400 with an 1.152 OPS and is barely striking out. The power has been there (three homers, four doubles), and he has multi-hit games in more than half his post-ASG contests.

Guerrero has seen Kremer a decent amount and punished him, swatting five homers and 11 hits (.903 SLG) in 33 career plate appearances.

Henderson over 1.5 total bases (-112): The 24-year-old Orioles star has been horrific vs. left-handed pitching but has mashed righties and thumped at home.

This is a good spot for him against Berrios, who isn’t a huge strikeout arm.

Henderson vs. RHP: .315 BA, .543 SLG, 10 of his 12 homers.

Henderson at home: .312 BA, .534 SLG, eight homers.

Baltimore’s shortstop has heated up following a cold start to the season. He’s hitting .308 with an .864 OPS over the last two months.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions made at 9 a.m. ET on 07/30/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 29: Predictions on starters Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin

Tuesday’s MLB prop picks feature four recommendations, including a best bet on New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Manaea has been great but I still think he’s fade-worthy on a certain market, while I’m finally ready to back Patrick Corbin.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for July 29, including predictions on Vinnie Pasquantino and Alec Burleson.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Manaea under 17.5 outs (-120)

Manaea missed the first three months of the season but he hasn’t been affected by rust whatsoever.

The Mets veteran has done this over three July outings:

Vs. LAA: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K
Vs. CIN: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
@ KC: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K

It adds up to a stellar 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

This pick isn’t betting against Manaea’s ability, but rather how much length he can realistically provide New York against a dangerous San Diego Padres club.

Manaea has built up his pitch count in each outing but topped out at a season-high 82 pitches last start after failing to touch 70 in his first two.

He’s an above-average strikeout arm who issues his fair share of walks, a combination that will drive up a pitch count.

Key stat: The Padres are eighth in MLB in wRC+ and on-base percentage in the second half.

Best MLB picks

Corbin over 4.5 Ks (-108): I’m not generally one to back Corbin but he’s been better than serviceable after some truly dreadful seasons. And this strikeout line is appealing.

Corbin remains extremely hittable and doesn’t have a great matchup against a powerful Los Angeles Angels team on the road.

Angel Stadium is a good hitter’s park and L.A. has some right-handed thumpers who will enjoy a platoon advantage.

That said, Corbin often gets to the sixth, meaning we have inning and opportunity upside working in our favour.

While he’s not a big strikeout arm, he’s been topping this number of late and the Angels K more than any club vs. southpaws.

Corbin has cleared this line in three straight outings and five of his last six.

One of those starts includes an outing vs. the Angels. Corbin fanned six over five innings, and he punched out six Angels when he saw them earlier this season.

Best MLB hitter props

Pasquantino over 0.5 RBI (+135): I’m ending with two RBI props.

Pasquantino is slugging a monthly-best .524 in July and should slot No. 3 in the lineup behind Kansas City Royals leadoff man Jonathan India and the club’s best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr.

Against Atlanta Braves righty Erick Fedde, Pasquantino is likely to find himself in a run-producing position.

Fedde has allowed six-plus runs in three of his last five starts and left-handed batters are hitting .290 off him with an .865 OPS.

Pasquantino has 16 RBI in 21 games this month and provides nearly all his damage vs. RHPs.

Burleson over 0.5 RBI (+137): Burleson should be pencilled into a run-producing spot and faces a struggling arm.

The St. Louis Cardinals get the Miami Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara, who was strong in his last outing but allowed 22 runs in his four starts before that.

Alcantara’s 6.66 ERA is the second-highest in MLB (minimum 100 innings) and he’s been even worse on the road. He has a 10.06 ERA in eight road starts ahead of tonight’s outing at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

Burleson has pounded right-handers, hitting .305 and slugging .510.

MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 29: Predictions on starters Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin

Tuesday’s MLB prop picks feature four recommendations, including a best bet on New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Manaea has been great but I still think he’s fade-worthy on a certain market, while I’m finally ready to back Patrick Corbin.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for July 29, including predictions on Vinnie Pasquantino and Alec Burleson.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Manaea under 17.5 outs (-127)

Manaea missed the first three months of the season but he hasn’t been affected by rust whatsoever.

The Mets veteran has done this over three July outings:

Vs. LAA: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K
Vs. CIN: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
@ KC: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K

It adds up to a stellar 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

This pick isn’t betting against Manaea’s ability, but rather how much length he can realistically provide New York against a dangerous San Diego Padres club.

Manaea has built up his pitch count in each outing but topped out at a season-high 82 pitches last start after failing to touch 70 in his first two.

He’s an above-average strikeout arm who issues his fair share of walks, a combination that will drive up a pitch count.

Key stat: The Padres are eighth in MLB in wRC+ and on-base percentage in the second half.

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Best MLB picks

Corbin over 4.5 Ks (+104): I’m not generally one to back Corbin but he’s been better than serviceable after some truly dreadful seasons. And this strikeout line is appealing.

Corbin remains extremely hittable and doesn’t have a great matchup against a powerful Los Angeles Angels team on the road.

Angel Stadium is a good hitter’s park and L.A. has some right-handed thumpers who will enjoy a platoon advantage.

That said, Corbin often gets to the sixth, meaning we have inning and opportunity upside working in our favour.

While he’s not a big strikeout arm, he’s been topping this number of late and the Angels K more than any club vs. southpaws.

Corbin has cleared this line in three straight outings and five of his last six.

One of those starts includes an outing vs. the Angels. Corbin fanned six over five innings, and he punched out six Angels when he saw them earlier this season.

Best MLB hitter props

Pasquantino over 0.5 RBI (+140): I’m ending with two RBI props.

Pasquantino is slugging a monthly-best .524 in July and should slot No. 3 in the lineup behind Kansas City Royals leadoff man Jonathan India and the club’s best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr.

Against Atlanta Braves righty Erick Fedde, Pasquantino is likely to find himself in a run-producing position.

Fedde has allowed six-plus runs in three of his last five starts and left-handed batters are hitting .290 off him with an .865 OPS.

Pasquantino has 16 RBI in 21 games this month and provides nearly all his damage vs. RHPs.

Burleson over 0.5 RBI (+138): Burleson should be pencilled into a run-producing spot and faces a struggling arm.

The St. Louis Cardinals get the Miami Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara, who was strong in his last outing but allowed 22 runs in his four starts before that.

Alcantara’s 6.66 ERA is the second-highest in MLB (minimum 100 innings) and he’s been even worse on the road. He has a 10.06 ERA in eight road starts ahead of tonight’s outing at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

Burleson has pounded right-handers, hitting .305 and slugging .510.

MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 28: Back Randy Arozarena, pitchers Matthew Boyd and Edward Cabrera

A starting pitcher and Seattle Mariners slugger Randy Arozarena highlight Monday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Arozarena is scorching and lines up well again tonight, making the over on his total bases prop my best bet of the night. As for the pitcher, I’m looking to strike on a light line.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for July 28, featuring a prediction on Edward Cabrera.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Arozarena over 1.5 total bases (-108)

This is a great matchup for Arozarena, who has been providing the Mariners with big middle-of-the-order production.

He’s enjoying his best month of the season, has the platoon advantage, and is hitting at one of the game’s best offensive environments.

Arozarena is slugging .659 with a .985 OPS this month. His 10 July homers are tied for second in MLB and he’s fifth in ISO.

The Athletics will deploy southpaw J.P. Sears (5.61 ERA at home) and a bullpen that’s been battered. A’s relievers have the worst ERA in the American League.

Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ home stadium, has been MLB’s best offensive venue next to Coors Field, according to Baseball Savant.

Arozarena has fanned five times in eight career at-bats vs. Sears, but that sample doesn’t sway me. The veteran hitter has a career-best 136 wRC+ and does his best damage against left-handed pitching.

Key stat: Arozarena is hitting .292 and slugging .547 vs. LHPs.

Best MLB picks

Cabrera over 4.5 Ks (-125): The St. Louis Cardinals are among the game’s most difficult teams to retire on strikes, but Cabrera consistently clears this number.

The Miami Marlins righty has recorded five-plus strikeouts in 11 consecutive outings and is 14-3 against this line on the season.

He has a lifetime 9.9 K/9 rate and enters this outing with well-above average strikeout, whiff and chase rates.

Cabrera is worth a play against any team at a line this light.

MLB prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 07/28/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 28: Back Randy Arozarena, pitchers Matthew Boyd and Edward Cabrera

Two starting pitchers and Seattle Mariners slugger Randy Arozarena highlight Monday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Arozarena is scorching and lines up well again tonight, making the over on his total bases prop my best bet of the night. As for the pitchers, I’m looking to strike on light lines.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for July 28, featuring predictions on Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Arozarena over 1.5 total bases (-107)

This is a great matchup for Arozarena, who has been providing the Mariners with big middle-of-the-order production.

He’s enjoying his best month of the season, has the platoon advantage, and is hitting at one of the game’s best offensive environments.

Arozarena is slugging .659 with a .985 OPS this month. His 10 July homers are tied for second in MLB and he’s fifth in ISO.

The Athletics will deploy southpaw J.P. Sears (5.61 ERA at home) and a bullpen that’s been battered. A’s relievers have the worst ERA in the American League.

Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ home stadium, has been MLB’s best offensive venue next to Coors Field, according to Baseball Savant.

Arozarena has fanned five times in eight career at-bats vs. Sears, but that sample doesn’t sway me. The veteran hitter has a career-best 136 wRC+ and does his best damage against left-handed pitching.

Key stat: Arozarena is hitting .292 and slugging .547 vs. LHPs.

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Best MLB picks

Cabrera over 4.5 Ks (-130): The St. Louis Cardinals are among the game’s most difficult teams to retire on strikes, but Cabrera consistently clears this number.

The Miami Marlins righty has recorded five-plus strikeouts in 11 consecutive outings and is 14-3 against this line on the season.

He has a lifetime 9.9 K/9 rate and enters this outing with well-above average strikeout, whiff and chase rates.

Cabrera is worth a play against any team at a line this light.

Boyd over 4.5 Ks (-129): Similar to Cabrera, Boyd’s upside is too big to ignore here. Plus, the matchup isn’t as daunting in some respects.

While the Chicago Cubs lefty is up against one of the sport’s hottest teams in the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, they’re more susceptible to strikeouts than St. Louis.

The Brewers are 19th in the majors in K rate, though they’ve been getting punched out at the 12th-highest clip in baseball since the all-star break.

They’ve been tougher on lefties, but Boyd has been tough on everyone.

The southpaw has the third-lowest ERA (2.20) in MLB, an above-average K rate, and he regularly works deep.

Boyd has cleared this number in 14 of his 20 starts.

MLB prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 07/28/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers SGP predictions July 25: Bet on Barger, Berrios and Toronto to win at +540

The surging Toronto Blue Jays turn to Jose Berrios as they continue their four-game set against the Detroit Tigers on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is coming off an 11-4 series-opening victory over Detroit, and I’m expecting Berrios and Addison Barger to power the AL East leaders to another win tonight.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Tigers same-game parlay predictions for the July 25 game at Comerica Park.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays to win | Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts | Barger over 1.5 total bases (+540)

Toronto moneyline (-107): I like all three legs as singles, and you could certainly play them that way with no odds shorter than Toronto moneyline at -107.

Let’s start there.

The Blue Jays steamrolled into the all-star break, taking over first place in the AL East, and they’ve come out of it just as hot.

Toronto is 6-1 since the break, sweeping the Giants, taking two of three from the Yankees, and winning its series opener vs. the Tigers.

The Blue Jays are hitting .309 in those seven games. Post-ASG, they’re No. 1 in wRC+ and fifth in ERA (3.14).

These results aren’t sustainable, but tonight isn’t the game I’m betting on things to turn sideways.

A win tonight guarantees Toronto at least a split against the AL Central-leading Tigers, and this is the game to get with Detroit’s top arms, Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, lined up for the weekend.

On Friday, the Blue Jays see Keider Montero, a second-year pro who serves up bombs and lacks swing and miss.

It’s a terrible combo against the Blue Jays, who are the most difficult team in baseball to strike out and lead in contact rate.

Expect Toronto to consistently put balls in play against Montero, which often leads to good outcomes.

Berrios has been inconsistent but provides Toronto with a starting pitching advantage against a slumping Tigers squad.

Toronto is 8-2 in Berrios’ last 10 starts.

Detroit is last in the majors in wRC+ over the last two weeks.

The Tigers have a 6.03 bullpen ERA in July (fifth-worst in MLB).

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MLB SGP legs

Berrios over 4.5 Ks (+100): This looks like a great price, even though Berrios has been slightly below average punching batters out this season.

Detroit has a lot of swing and miss in its game and Berrios still possesses some K upside, striking out eight-plus batters five times this year.

But we don’t even need that upside tonight. An average outing cashes this bet.

Berrios has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 11 of his 21 starts.

Even last season, when he produced a career-low K rate, he cleared this line in 20 of 32 starts.

The Tigers have the fifth-highest K rate in MLB over the last 30 days. Only two teams this season have struck out more vs. righties.

Barger over 1.5 total bases (+128): Let’s tie this off with a juicy plus-money play.

Barger has been sensational in July and smashes right-handed pitching.

Montero, a righty, has struggled vs. lefty hitters, making Barger a clear target of mine.

Barger in July: .328/.357/.642 (.999 OPS).

Barger vs. RHPs: .548 SLG, 13 of his 14 homers.

LHHs vs. Montero: .292/.384/.558

Barger has topped this line in 10 of his 15 starts this month.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions made at 11:58 a.m. ET on 07/25/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 22: Back Zach Neto and Corey Seager, fade Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Astros

A fade on Arizona Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez highlights Tuesday’s top MLB prop selections.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Rodriguez has been shaky and has a challenging matchup at home against the AL West-leading Houston Astros. He’s tough to count on tonight, but I am banking on production from two hot bats.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 22, featuring predictions on Corey Seager and Zach Neto.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rodriguez under 5.5 strikeouts (-124)

Good luck figuring out which version of Rodriguez will show up.

The left-hander has been wildly inconsistent and runs into an Astros team that punishes the ball.

This looks like a terrible matchup for the 32-year-old veteran.

The Astros are No. 2 in the majors in wRC+ vs. lefties.

Houston is No. 8 in wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Only six teams have a lower K rate vs. LHPs.

Vs. LHPs, Houston ranks second in batting average and first in slugging.

If those trends continue, Rodriguez is staring down a short outing, limiting his ability to pile up strikeouts.

And we’ve seen plenty of short outings from him, as he’s failed to complete five innings in three of his last five starts.

While the strikeouts have been there — Rodriguez has three double-digit K games and his best strikeout rate since 2021 — he also has a 5.94 ERA, propelled by a career-high home run rate.

Key stat: Rodriguez has gone under this number in 10 of his 16 starts.

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Best MLB picks

Seager over 1.5 total bases (+100): The Texas Rangers star has the luxury of facing J.T. Ginn and the Athletics’ terrible bullpen tonight.

Ginn’s likely looking at a few frames after pitching out of the bullpen since June, but that assures the Rangers’ No. 2 hitter one plate appearance against him at minimum.

And it will be a plus matchup with the platoon advantage. Ginn’s career numbers vs. lefty batters: .336/.402/.588.

Seager is batting a blistering .350/.451/.617 in July, clearing this number in 11 of 16 games.

He pounds righties (.875 OPS this year; .944 in 2024; 1.075 in 2023) and will see one of MLB’s worst bullpens following Ginn.

Athletics relievers sport the second-worst ERA (5.43) in baseball and the fourth-highest opponent’s batting average.

Neto over 0.5 runs (+114): I love this line for Neto, the Los Angeles Angels’ leadoff hitter who’s on a heater and tied for fourth in the AL in runs scored.

The Angels are smashing the ball (first in wRC+ the last 30 days), putting the 24-year-old in front of all of the club’s dangerous power bats.

Neto has scored 19 runs in 17 games this month, crossing the plate in 11 different contests.

Even more impressive: Shohei Ohtani is the only player in baseball to score in a greater percentage of his starts this season.

Neto is batting .307 this month and getting on base at a .373 clip — his best marks of the season.

His Angels see the New York Mets’ Frankie Montas, who has made four starts, pitching well in two and awful in the others.

Montas will have his moments, but he’s far from a pitcher to shy away from on this plus-money offering.

MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 07/22/2025.

MLB All-Star Game home run odds: Blue Jays’ Guerrero Jr. is 10-to-1, Judge tops board

The 95th MLB All-Star Game takes place in Atlanta tonight, featuring the sport’s two greatest stars: Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The pregame narrative: The two MVP favourites unsurprisingly top the home run odds board, but there are several betting options to choose from, including Home Run Derby champ Cal Raleigh, runner-up Junior Caminero and Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Check out our MLB All-Star Game home run odds for the July 15 showcase at Truist Park.

MLB All-Star Game home run odds

Note: Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Player	Betting odds
Aaron Judge	+550
Shohei Ohtani	+575
Cal Raleigh	+650
Ronald Acuna Jr.	+750
Junior Caminero	+800
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+850
Will Smith	+900
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	+1,000
Freddie Freeman	+1,000
Manny Machado	+1,000
Francisco Lindor	+1,000
Riley Greene	+1,000
Ryan O’Hearn	+1,000

MLB All-Star Game home run odds as of 11:30 a.m. on 07/15/25.

The favourites: Judge (+550) & Ohtani (+575)

They’re the favourites to win AL and NL MVP. They’re the favourites to win All-Star Game MVP. And, you guessed it, they have the shortest odds to hit a bomb on Tuesday night.

Not only are Judge and Ohtani the two best players in baseball, they’re the sport’s top home run hitters.

Since 2023, they are tied for the MLB lead with exactly 130 homers apiece.

Judge ranks second in MLB with 35 home runs this season, while Ohtani is third and paces the National League (32).

Ohtani is leading off for the NL, setting up a first-inning clash with Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Judge, on the other hand, is batting third and will see Pittsburgh Pirates fireballer Paul Skenes in his first plate appearance.

Beyond that, there’s no way of telling how many trips to the plate they’ll make or which pitchers they’ll face. But they should both get at least two cracks at sending one out.

Ohtani crushed a homer off Boston Red Sox righty Tanner Houck in last year’s ASG. Judge, meanwhile, went yard in the 2018 Midsummer Classic.

Truist Park has been a neutral stadium for offence over the last few seasons. But it’s been homer-friendly to lefty hitters, ranking No. 7 on Baseball Savant’s home run park factors leaderboard.

You can always bet Ohtani to record a hit at even money as well.

HR odds notes

Raleigh, fresh off a somewhat controversial win in last night’s Home Run Derby, is batting cleanup for the AL. That puts the MLB home run leader (38) right behind Judge. The switch-hitting Raleigh is slugging 300 points greater vs. lefties this season, hitting 16 bombs in 102 plate appearances compared to 22 in 307 PAs vs. righties. If he gets up in the first inning, he’s all but certain to see the right-handed Skenes.

Behind the two home run leaders and starting at first base for the American League is the Blue Jays’ Guerrero. Vladdy homered in the 2021 event, winning MVP of the ASG, and he was the winner of the 2023 derby. But he only has 12 home runs this season, and most projection systems, via FanGraphs, expect his lowest output since his rookie year.

Hometown star Ronald Acuna Jr. is batting second behind Ohtani and has the fourth-shortest odds to go deep. Acuna (12 homers) didn’t play his first game until May 23, but he has been a beast. He sports a career-best 1.035 OPS and has two 40-homer seasons under his belt.

Caminero, who put on a great show in the derby, headlines the remaining group of players with odds shorter than 10-to-1. Though lefty-batting No. 9 hitter Pete Crow-Armstrong might have more home run upside, especially if he can set himself up against a righty. Crow-Armstrong has demolished righties this season, hitting 19 of his 25 homers vs. them while slugging .613.

Only the starting players are priced up as of Tuesday morning. But the player with the longest odds to hit a bomb is Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson, who’s batting No. 9 for the AL. The 23-year-old Rookie of the Year favourite is hitting .332 with nine homers.

MLB 2025 All-Star Game MVP odds: Superstars Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge favoured to win

The first half of the 2025 MLB season wraps up with the All-Star Game at Truist Park on Tuesday, July 15.

The latest: To no surprise, the game’s best players and biggest stars are the favourites to win MVP: Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. They have five combined regular-season MVPs but neither has won ASG MVP before.

Check out our MLB All-Star Game MVP odds board below for the other betting favourites at this year’s Midsummer Classic.

MLB All-Star Game MVP odds

Top favourites	MVP betting odds
Shohei Ohtani	+500
Aaron Judge	+600
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+900
Ronald Acuna Jr.	+1,000
Cal Raleigh	+1,100
Bobby Witt Jr.	+1,600
Kyle Tucker	+1,800
James Wood	+2,000
Elly De La Cruz	+2,500
Francisco Lindor	+2,500
Tarik Skubal	+2,500
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	+2,500

MLB All-Star Game MVP odds as of 4:15 p.m. on 07/14/2025.

The favourites: Ohtani (+500) & Judge (+600)

Only one other player outside of the two mega-stars has odds inside of 10-to-1.

Each won MVP of their respective leagues last year and are enormous favourites to repeat.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how the studs performed in the first half:

Ohtani leads the NL in homers; Judge is 2nd in the AL.

Judge leads MLB in WAR, Ohtani is 2nd in the NL.

Ohtani leads the NL in slugging; Judge leads MLB.

Judge leads MLB in wRC+; Ohtani is 2nd in the NL.

Ohtani & Judge are 1-2 in MLB in runs scored.

The New York Yankees captain is flirting with a Triple Crown, trailing Cal Raleigh by three homers and one RBI, while leading MLB with a .355 average.

Ohtani is putting up historic numbers out of the leadoff spot for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he’s back pitching again.

He has allowed one run in five appearances, has a 10.0 K/9 rate and has touched 100 mph.

These two are in a league of their own.

All-Star Game MVP contenders

The contenders are plentiful. This is the All-Star Game after all.

The pitchers with the shortest odds are starters Tarik Skubal (+2,500) and Paul Skenes at (+4,500).

But keep in mind, pitchers don’t generally go deep enough to win this award. Only two pitchers since Pedro Martinez in 1999 have won ASG MVP.

There are two hometown stars to back in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson if you want to play that angle.

Acuna missed nearly two months but has been dynamite since his return in late May (.323 average, 1.025 OPS) and is starting in the outfield.

The power-hitting Olson is a reserve, but has big pop and is probably good for a couple of at-bats playing at home.

If you want to back the Toronto Blue Jays, your options are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.

Guerrero is the AL’s starting first baseman, which probably ensures him half the game, while Kirk is the backup to Raleigh, the MLB leader in homers.

If you want to target the starting position players, here are your options:

American League ASG starters

C: Raleigh (Mariners)
1B: Guerrero (Blue Jays)
2B: Gleyber Torres (Tigers)
3B: Junior Caminero (Rays)
SS: Jacob Wilson (Athletics)
OF: Judge (Yankees)
OF: Riley Greene (Tigers)
OF: Javier Baez (Tigers)
DH: Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles)

National League ASG starters

C: Will Smith (Dodgers)
1B: Freddie Freeman (Dodgers)
2B: Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks)
3B: Manny Machado (Padres)
SS: Francisco Lindor (Mets)
OF: Acuna (Braves)
OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs)
OF: Kyle Tucker (Cubs)
DH: Ohtani (Dodgers)