Chris Toman

Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers SGP predictions Aug. 8: Back Toronto behind Scherzer in duel with Kershaw

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions

What a way to kick off tonight’s powerhouse Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers series: Max Scherzer vs. Clayton Kershaw.

The pregame narrative: This pitching matchup is the main storyline but we’re looking at a potential World Series preview. Toronto tops the American League, while the defending champs are first in the NL West.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Dodgers same-game parlay predictions for Friday, Aug. 8, featuring Scherzer and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Over 8.5 runs | Blue Jays to win | Scherzer over 4.5 Ks | Bichette over 0.5 hits (+480)

Over 8.5 runs (-136): The chances of the future Hall of Famers coming out of this game unscathed are unlikely. 

But I have more faith in Scherzer, who has been significantly better than Kershaw. That’s why I’m backing Toronto to win.

  • These teams are near the top of most offensive stats, including wRC+ (tied for second).
  • All but two of Scherzer’s eight starts have gone over this number and the over is 9-4 in Kershaw’s 13 outings.
  • Those O/U stats are imperfect, but they reinforce how difficult these offences are to contain regardless of how well the starters perform. These clubs are averaging more than 10 combined runs per game.

Kershaw’s 3.29 ERA doesn’t accurately tell his performance. He’s limited runs, but he’s below average in several meaningful categories.

He’s due for a clunker and has to contend with a dangerous club that’s coming off a 45-run series at Coors Field.

A throwback duel between two of the best pitchers of their era would be awesome, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

MLB SGP legs

Toronto ML (+123): This might be Toronto’s most winnable game of the series.

Los Angeles is sending out Blake Snell tomorrow before ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto closes out the series on Sunday. 

The AL-best Jays are 13-7 in the second half, and no team has been better against clubs with records above .500.

Kershaw’s lack of Ks and Toronto’s league-low strikeout rate lead me to believe the Blue Jays will strike early and often and work from a position of strength. 

Any pitcher is susceptible to the Dodgers’ potent Shohei Ohtani-led lineup, but Scherzer has largely been sharp and Toronto’s bullpen was revamped ahead of the deadline. 

It’s unlikely you’ll be able to get Toronto at this price many more times after this series.

Embed: #117117

Scherzer over 4.5 Ks (-220): Scherzer is 4-2 against this number over his last six starts with an 11-strikeout game mixed in.

He got up to 96 pitches that game and then came back with another gem his last time out: 6 IP, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 Ks.

Scherzer’s fastball is up to 95 mph and his advanced metrics are superb. It’s all encouraging ahead of tonight’s game.

Los Angeles has the seventh-highest K rate in the second half.

Bichette to record a hit (-345): This provides a modest bump from +410 to +480.

Bichette is worth a play at over 1.5 total bases, according to Jordan Horrobin. And I like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases as a single, too.

But I’m going with a safer leg. Not much explanation is needed here.

  • Bichette leads the majors in hits (145).
  • Toronto’s shortstop has recorded a hit in more than 75% of his games, per Team Rankings.
  • Among qualified hitters in the second half, he has the eighth-best wRC+, seventh-lowest K rate and ranks sixth with a .382 average.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions made at 2:40 p.m. ET on 08/08/2025

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 8: Back Kyle Stowers, Chase Burns and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on Friday

MLB prop bets

Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is among three players featured in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Guerrero has been one of the game’s hottest hitters and gets a plus matchup vs. aging Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 8, featuring predictions on Kyle Stowers and Chase Burns.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+135)

Stowers burned me on this prop last night, but I’m going right back to him for the same reasons as yesterday. 

He’s been punishing the ball for a long stretch and crushes right-handers. As with last night, when Atlanta deployed Carlos Carrasco, Stowers will face a prime right-handed fade candidate in the Braves’ Bryce Elder. 

Elder is well-below average in nearly every metric that matters — velocity, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate and run prevention — and he’s surrendered bombs at an alarming rate the last two seasons. 

Opponents are batting .322 off him at home and he enters with a 6.03 ERA. 

On top of that, Atlanta’s bullpen has been dreadful despite silencing the Marlins last night after they put up six runs on nine hits off Carrasco. 

The Braves have a 6.42 bullpen ERA in the second half, the second-worst mark in MLB. 

Back to Stowers. The left-hitting slugger has an excellent .300/.376/.610 slash line vs. righties. 

Though he’s had a slow start to August, Stowers is coming off a dominant July: .364 BA, .818 SLG, 10 homers.

Key stat: Stowers’ 153 wRC+ is the sixth-best mark in baseball.

Best MLB picks

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+105): The Blue Jays begin a marquee matchup vs. the Dodgers and I like Guerrero to strike in the series opener. 

Kershaw, who has good control, doesn’t miss bats and is serving up hard contact at his highest rate since Statcast started tracking in 2015. 

It’s hard to see Kershaw fooling many Blue Jays, who are the most difficult team in the majors to strike out. Among the players leading that charge is Guerrero, who has the lowest K rate of his career. 

Expect the Blue Jays slugger to put the ball in play and continue his second-half surge.

  • Guerrero has a 216 wRC+ since the all-star break, good for the fourth-best mark in MLB.
  • He’s clubbed six of his 18 homers in those 20 post-ASG contests. 

And he’s been punishing southpaws all season, batting .324 with a .935 OPS.

Burns over 15.5 outs (-120): The hard-throwing Cincinnati Reds rookie will be well-rested ahead of a plus matchup tonight. 

Burns logged one inning on Aug. 2 before the Reds’ game was suspended and hadn’t pitched since July 28 before that. He recorded his third consecutive 10-strikeout outing that game. 

Playing his Ks prop is certainly tempting, but betting the over on his 7.5-strikeout line at -143 isn’t appealing. 

Despite all the Ks, Burns cleared this outs prop in all of those double-digit strikeout performances. 

He has the benefit of facing the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road and not his hitter-friendly home park, and the Reds only got 3.2 innings out of starter Brady Singer last night. 

The Pirates rank 28th in MLB in wRC+ vs. right-handers and are second-last overall in the second half.

MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 08/08/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 8: Back Kyle Stowers, Chase Burns and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on Friday

MLB prop bets

Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is among three players featured in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Guerrero has been one of the game’s hottest hitters and gets a plus matchup vs. aging Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 8, featuring predictions on Kyle Stowers and Chase Burns.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+108)

Stowers burned me on this prop last night, but I’m going right back to him for the same reasons as yesterday. 

He’s been punishing the ball for a long stretch and crushes right-handers. As with last night, when Atlanta deployed Carlos Carrasco, Stowers will face a prime right-handed fade candidate in the Braves’ Bryce Elder. 

Elder is well-below average in nearly every metric that matters — velocity, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate and run prevention — and he’s surrendered bombs at an alarming rate the last two seasons. 

Opponents are batting .322 off him at home and he enters with a 6.03 ERA. 

On top of that, Atlanta’s bullpen has been dreadful despite silencing the Marlins last night after they put up six runs on nine hits off Carrasco. 

The Braves have a 6.42 bullpen ERA in the second half, the second-worst mark in MLB. 

Back to Stowers. The left-hitting slugger has an excellent .300/.376/.610 slash line vs. righties. 

Though he’s had a slow start to August, Stowers is coming off a dominant July: .364 BA, .818 SLG, 10 homers.

Key stat: Stowers’ 153 wRC+ is the sixth-best mark in baseball.

Embed: #117116

Best MLB picks

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-103): The Blue Jays begin a marquee matchup vs. the Dodgers and I like Guerrero to strike in the series opener. 

Kershaw, who has good control, doesn’t miss bats and is serving up hard contact at his highest rate since Statcast started tracking in 2015. 

It’s hard to see Kershaw fooling many Blue Jays, who are the most difficult team in the majors to strike out. Among the players leading that charge is Guerrero, who has the lowest K rate of his career. 

Expect the Blue Jays slugger to put the ball in play and continue his second-half surge.

  • Guerrero has a 216 wRC+ since the all-star break, good for the fourth-best mark in MLB.
  • He’s clubbed six of his 18 homers in those 20 post-ASG contests. 

And he’s been punishing southpaws all season, batting .324 with a .935 OPS.

Burns over 15.5 outs (-112): The hard-throwing Cincinnati Reds rookie will be well-rested ahead of a plus matchup tonight. 

Burns logged one inning on Aug. 2 before the Reds’ game was suspended and hadn’t pitched since July 28 before that. He recorded his third consecutive 10-strikeout outing that game. 

Playing his Ks prop is certainly tempting, but betting the over on his 7.5-strikeout line at -143 isn’t appealing. 

Despite all the Ks, Burns cleared this outs prop in all of those double-digit strikeout performances. 

He has the benefit of facing the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road and not his hitter-friendly home park, and the Reds only got 3.2 innings out of starter Brady Singer last night. 

The Pirates rank 28th in MLB in wRC+ vs. right-handers and are second-last overall in the second half.

MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 08/08/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 7: Back Marlins Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards and Seattle’s Josh Naylor

MLB prop bets

I’m targeting a pair of Miami Marlins players in Thursday’s top MLB prop picks. 

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Marlins have an excellent matchup against washed-up Carlos Carrasco and the struggling Atlanta Braves, making their top-of-the-order bats strong choices on the prop markets today.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 7, featuring predictions on Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards and Josh Naylor.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Stowers is destroying the ball, and he’ll enjoy a platoon advantage for however long Carrasco is on the mound. After that, he gets Atlanta’s sputtering bullpen. 

He has a prime opportunity to feast and is a hammer play at plus money. 

If you look beyond a small one-week sample, Stowers has been on a tear anyway you slice it. 

  • 2025 season: .935 OPS (career-high)
  • Last 30 days: 1.207 OPS
  • Last 15 days: .921 OPS
  • vs. RHPs: .993 OPS

He’s coming off a monster July, batting .364, slugging .818 and smashing 10 bombs. 

Carrasco is making his second start for the Braves, and he impressively turned in a quality start at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. 

But I’m not swayed by that. The 38-year-old had an ERA north of 6.00 over 41 starts the previous two seasons. 

Carrasco struggled in limited time with the New York Yankees before joining Atlanta and enters tonight’s start in the bottom 20th percentile in K rate, barrel rate and fastball velocity. 

Atlanta’s bullpen has a 6.72 ERA in the second half with an 8.0 K-BB%. Only the Colorado Rockies have been worse.

Key stat: Stowers is 12-8 vs. this line over his past 20 games.

Best MLB picks

Edwards over 0.5 runs (+110): The Marlins’ offence is not littered with household names, but the lineup has produced. 

  • The club has above-average marks in wRC+ in the second half (108) and vs. right-handed pitching (104) this season.
  • Miami is just outside the top 10 in homers and on-base percentage post-ASG, while ranking eighth in ISO.

This team isn’t a pushover and, in fact, is comfortably ahead of Atlanta in the NL East. 

Edwards is the club’s leadoff man and is pacing the team in hits, while ranking second to Stowers in runs and OBP. 

The 25-year-old (batting .298/.361/.369) has really picked things up since June. 

He’s got a .326/.382/.430 slash line over 54 games since then, scoring 36 times. That’s good for a 108-run pace over 162 games. 

For context, only nine players topped that number last season.

Naylor over 0.5 RBI (+155): I love Naylor’s spot in the Seattle Mariners’ revamped lineup, batting cleanup behind Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez.

The slugging first baseman is going to have a lot of opportunities to cash in and today’s matchup looks like a strong one for him.

Seattle faces Shane Smith and the Chicago White Sox. The rookie right-hander has hit a wall after posting a 2.68 ERA through 11 starts going into June.

Since then, he’s produced a 6.88 ERA in eight outings, allowing five-plus runs on four occasions.

Naylor is having a big start to the month, sporting a 1.011 OPS in August. Against righties, he’s batting .293/.376/.467 this season.

MLB prop picks made at 12 p.m. ET on 08/07/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 7: Back Marlins Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards and Seattle’s Josh Naylor

MLB prop bets

I’m targeting a pair of Miami Marlins players in Thursday’s top MLB prop picks. 

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Marlins have an excellent matchup against washed-up Carlos Carrasco and the struggling Atlanta Braves, making their top-of-the-order bats strong choices on the prop markets today.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 7, featuring predictions on Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards and Josh Naylor.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+112)

Stowers is destroying the ball, and he’ll enjoy a platoon advantage for however long Carrasco is on the mound. After that, he gets Atlanta’s sputtering bullpen. 

He has a prime opportunity to feast and is a hammer play at plus money. 

If you look beyond a small one-week sample, Stowers has been on a tear anyway you slice it. 

  • 2025 season: .935 OPS (career-high)
  • Last 30 days: 1.207 OPS
  • Last 15 days: .921 OPS
  • vs. RHPs: .993 OPS

He’s coming off a monster July, batting .364, slugging .818 and smashing 10 bombs. 

Carrasco is making his second start for the Braves, and he impressively turned in a quality start at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. 

But I’m not swayed by that. The 38-year-old had an ERA north of 6.00 over 41 starts the previous two seasons. 

Carrasco struggled in limited time with the New York Yankees before joining Atlanta and enters tonight’s start in the bottom 20th percentile in K rate, barrel rate and fastball velocity. 

Atlanta’s bullpen has a 6.72 ERA in the second half with an 8.0 K-BB%. Only the Colorado Rockies have been worse.

Key stat: Stowers is 12-8 vs. this line over his past 20 games.

Best MLB picks

Edwards over 0.5 runs (-108): The Marlins’ offence is not littered with household names, but the lineup has produced. 

  • The club has above-average marks in wRC+ in the second half (108) and vs. right-handed pitching (104) this season.
  • Miami is just outside the top 10 in homers and on-base percentage post-ASG, while ranking eighth in ISO.

This team isn’t a pushover and, in fact, is comfortably ahead of Atlanta in the NL East. 

Edwards is the club’s leadoff man and is pacing the team in hits, while ranking second to Stowers in runs and OBP. 

The 25-year-old (batting .298/.361/.369) has really picked things up since June. 

He’s got a .326/.382/.430 slash line over 54 games since then, scoring 36 times. That’s good for a 108-run pace over 162 games. 

For context, only nine players topped that number last season.

Naylor over 0.5 RBI (+155): I love Naylor’s spot in the Seattle Mariners’ revamped lineup, batting cleanup behind Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez.

The slugging first baseman is going to have a lot of opportunities to cash in and today’s matchup looks like a strong one for him.

Seattle faces Shane Smith and the Chicago White Sox. The rookie right-hander has hit a wall after posting a 2.68 ERA through 11 starts going into June.

Since then, he’s produced a 6.88 ERA in eight outings, allowing five-plus runs on four occasions.

Naylor is having a big start to the month, sporting a 1.011 OPS in August. Against righties, he’s batting .293/.376/.467 this season.

MLB prop picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on 08/07/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 5: Back Gunnar Henderson, Freddie Freeman and Jarren Duran on Tuesday

MLB prop bets

American League East stars Gunnar Henderson and Jarren Duran highlight the top MLB prop picks for Tuesday’s slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Henderson has an appealing matchup and has been hot for months, while Duran’s move into a more friendly run-producing spot has yielded strong results.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets on Aug. 5, featuring a prediction on Freddie Freeman.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 total bases (-118)

The Baltimore Orioles have been a colossal disappointment, but they’ve received some strong individual performances from several players. Henderson is one of them.

A slow start following a spring injury has long been an afterthought, as the shortstop has been a beast at the plate after putting up a 7.9 fWAR season a year ago.

  • Henderson is hitting .326/.398/.547 over the last 30 days.
  • Going back even more, he has an .896 OPS since June 1 (he posted a mark of .893 in his monster 2024 year).
  • The 24-year-old is hitting .316/.386/.536 with 10 of his 13 homers vs. right-handed pitching.

Henderson and the Orioles see a righty tonight, in the ultra-hittable Taijuan Walker of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Walker was serviceable in July in terms of run prevention, but he doesn’t miss bats and has allowed multiple homers in three consecutive starts.

He had an unsightly 7.10 ERA in 19 appearances last season and is a pitcher I’m looking to fade against good hitters.

Key stat: Tonight’s game is at Citizens Bank Park, where Walker has a 4.78 ERA in 12 appearances (six starts).

Embed: #116648

Best MLB picks

Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+104): I’m surprised Freeman can be had at plus money, so I’m all over this.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a juicy matchup at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are starting Miles Mikolas.

  • Mikolas has a 6.00 ERA on the road and has allowed 15 homers since the start of June.
  • Since that time, he’s turned in a 5.81 ERA.
  • Mikolas has faced Freeman more than any Dodgers hitter and the results haven’t been pretty: 1.426 OPS over 21 plate appearances.

Freeman hit a lull in June that dragged into July, but he’s long out of it.

The all-star first baseman is batting .385/.439/.615 over the last 15 days and has a team-best .993 OPS in the second half.

Freeman also smashes righties (.527 SLG) and has cleared this line in six straight games, making this a plus matchup.

Duran over 0.5 RBI (+145): The Boston Red Sox outfielder rakes at home, smashes righties and is coming off his best month of the season. There’s a lot to like here.

Duran has hit third or seventh in the lineup in eight consecutive games and either spot is fine. He has 10 extra-base hits and 10 RBI over that stretch.

As long as he’s out of the leadoff spot, where he’s spent a lot of time this season, Duran is worth a look on this market when the right conditions are present, as they are tonight.

  • Duran in July: .317/.411/.683
  • At home: .291/.362/.524
  • Vs. RHPs: .294/.370/.527

The Red Sox see Kansas City Royals deadline addition Ryan Bergert, a righty with control issues who will be pitching at Fenway Park’s favourable hitting environment.

MLB prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 08/05/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rockies SGP predictions Aug. 5: Back Varsho, Berrios, Guerrero Jr. at +460

Blue Jays vs. Rockies predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays kicked off their three-game set at Coors Field with an emphatic win over the Colorado Rockies and they should stay hot tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won last night’s series opener 15-1 to remain 3.0 games up on the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. Behind Jose Berrios on Tuesday, Toronto is a large betting favourite at Colorado’s launching pad.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rockies same-game parlay predictions for Aug. 5, featuring SGP legs on Berrios, Daulton Varsho and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Rockies predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays -1.5 | Guerrero over 1.5 bases | Varsho over 1.5 bases | Berrios over 3.5 Ks (+460)

Toronto -1.5 (-162): The Blue Jays are a -250 choice to win tonight’s game over the MLB-worst Rockies.

Toronto has 36 more wins than Colorado and, to no surprise, has a fairly large pitching advantage.

Berrios has his faults and will be pitching in an unkind environment but he generally keeps the Blue Jays in games.

The Jays are 10-2 in his last 12 starts and the offence should thrive again tonight against righty Anthony Molina and the Rockies’ porous bullpen (MLB-worst 7.56 ERA in the second half).

Molina has a career 6.85 ERA over two MLB seasons (40 appearances), has been a well-below-average strikeout arm and spent the last month in the minors.

MLB SGP legs

Berrios over 3.5 Ks (-200): We’re looking at a +285 SGP without this Berrios leg.

I thought about loading up on more offence but this play gives us a solid price spike. Colorado has been swinging it well and Berrios is coming off a disastrous month (5.83 ERA over six starts), so there’s more risk than usual here on a 3.5 K line.

That said, there’s also plenty of comfort:

  • Despite the rough July, Berrios cleared this in half of his starts. That brought his season record to 16-7 vs. this line.
  • The Rockies have MLB’s highest K rate and also rank No. 1 vs. right-handed pitching.
  • Their 81 wRC+ vs. righties is the worst mark in baseball.

Varsho over 1.5 total bases (-120): It’s hard to find good value at Coors but this certainly fits the bill.

Varsho has big pop, blasting nine homers to accompany his robust .330 ISO in 27 games. For context, only three qualified hitters, including Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, have a higher ISO this season.

He’ll have the platoon advantage for however long Molina is out there and will then get to feast on Colorado’s bullpen.

This is among the best single plays tonight, as far as I’m concerned.

Embed: #116639

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-152): I’m expecting the Blue Jays to produce plenty of offence again and getting Guerrero at this price isn’t terrible considering the conditions.

Vladdy has hit the under in three straight games but has been mashing in the second half. He’s hitting .343 and slugging .586.

He’s tied with Bo Bichette for a top-15 second-half mark in wRC+ (187).

Guerrero walks plenty, which hurts him some on this market, but he also doesn’t strike out. The Toronto slugger has fanned just three times in his last 10 games.

The all-star has elite batted ball metrics and should put the ball in play.

Blue Jays vs. Rockies predictions made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 08/05/2025

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 1: Back Pham, Caminero, Laureano and Leiter on Friday

MLB prop bets

Tommy Pham highlights the best MLB prop picks for the first day of August.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Pham has a dream matchup and can be had at a great price on his total bases prop, making him a slam-dunk play and my best bet tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Friday, Aug. 1, featuring predictions on Junior Caminero, Ramon Laureano and Jack Leiter.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Pham over 1.5 total bases (-114)

Pham is on fire and his Pittsburgh Pirates are at MLB’s most hitter-friendly venue, Coors Field. 

They face one of the sport’s worst starting pitchers, and the wind is expected to be blowing out. What more could you ask for?

  • Pham hit .388/.446/.597 last month. 
  • He finished July with three consecutive multi-hit games and cleared 1.5 bases in 11 of 18 starts.
  • In July, he raised his average from .228 to .273 and his OPS from .595 to .721. 
  • Since June 1, Pham has hit .355, slugged .555 and put up a .971 OPS. 

The Colorado Rockies are starting Antonio Senzatela, who has an MLB-high 6.68 ERA (minimum 100 innings pitched). 

Opponents are batting .349 off him, and only one pitcher who meets that innings threshold has a lower K rate. 

It won’t just be Senzatela that Pham has the luxury of facing. Colorado’s 7.67 bullpen ERA over the last 30 days is the worst mark in MLB.

Key stat: Pham is batting .400 and has never struck out in 17 career plate appearances against Senzatela.

Embed: #116527

Best MLB picks

Caminero over 1.5 total bases (+104): Clayton Kershaw can’t be trusted at this point in his career. 

Look past his respectable surface stats (3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP):

  • Kershaw’s expected ERA is 4.13 and he’s below the 10th percentile in K rate. 
  • The lefty finished July with 10 strikeouts in 21 innings. 
  • His hard-hit rate is by far the highest of his career (Statcast started tracking in 2015). 

Caminero wasn’t overly productive in July but he still hit for decent power (six homers, .444 SLG). That was his lowest slugging month of the season, though well above the MLB average. 

The first-time all-star has below-average walk and strikeout rates, too, so there should be an expectation that he’ll put the ball in play.

And when he does at home, where he’ll be tonight, good things usually happen. 

Caminero is batting a robust .327/.365/.627 with 17 of his 27 homers at Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ temporary home.

Laureano over 0.5 RBI (+190): There’s no confirmation at the time of this writing if the San Diego Padres’ new outfielder will play after getting traded from the Baltimore Orioles yesterday.

Assuming he’s a go, I love him at this price.

Laureano would likely slot just behind the middle of the lineup behind a collection of thumpers, including Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals, who are starting left-hander Matthew Liberatore (5.58 ERA since June). Laureano hits southpaws well (.802 career OPS) and is having a fantastic season.

He’s batting .313 with a .935 OPS since the start of May.

Friday’s best pitching prop

Leiter over 4.5 Ks (-139): I played Leiter’s teammate Kumar Rocker on this line yesterday and he didn’t come through. But I like Leiter for similar reasons.

The Seattle Mariners had the fifth-highest K rate in July and have the 10th-highest mark vs. right-handers this season.

Leiter was strong in July and has completed six innings in three of his last five starts. More importantly, the Texas Rangers righty has topped this number in five straight and is 7-3 vs. this line in his last 10 outings.

One of those starts came against Seattle in June when he twirled six innings of one-hit ball with seven Ks.

Leiter has elite velocity, was a big K arm in the minors and is finding his groove after a rough first go in the majors last year.

MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 08/01/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 31: Back Elly De La Cruz, Kumar Rocker and J.P. Crawford on Thursday

MLB prop bets

There are only two MLB games tonight, but I have three prop picks for the ultra-light slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Elly De La Cruz has a juicy matchup and I expect him to mash at home. I’m also backing a slumping J.P. Crawford, who has the luxury of hitting atop a suddenly stacked Seattle Mariners lineup.

Check out my best MLB prop bets for July 31, featuring a prediction on Kumar Rocker.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-112)

Carlos Carrasco at Great American Ball Park. What could go wrong? Plenty. 

Carrasco, recently acquired from the New York Yankees, is well past his best-before date and making his Atlanta Braves debut at one of the game’s most hitter-friendly venues. 

Wind is expected to be blowing out at the offensive-minded park, making this a terrible spot for the veteran 38-year-old. 

  • Carrasco turned in a 5.91 ERA over eight appearances with the Yankees.
  • He was even worse in the previous two seasons, putting up a 6.18 ERA with a sky-high home run rate and weak strikeout totals. 
  • Once the Cincinnati Reds knock the right-hander out of the game, the Braves will turn to a bullpen that has an MLB-worst 8.10 ERA in the second half.

As for De La Cruz, he’s worth a look in any matchup vs. a righty starter.

The all-star shortstop does most of his damage from the left side, batting .302/.394/.532 with 13 of his 18 homers vs. RHPs. 

To no surprise, the dynamic 23-year-old has been especially strong at home, too.

Key stat: De La Cruz is batting .307 and slugging .500 in Cincinnati.

Best MLB picks

Rocker over 4.5 Ks (-134): Rocker turned in an 8.10 ERA over his first five starts this season, leading to his demotion. 

The hyped prospect has left a lot to be desired, but he’s been better since returning in June. 

Rocker has a 4.54 ERA in his past eight starts, striking out nearly a batter per inning. 

He’s battled control issues and generally doesn’t work deep, so there’s some risk here at a price that’s not great. But the hard-throwing righty has upside.

  • Rocker has cleared this line in five of those eight starts and was a big strikeout arm in the minors.
  • When he faced the Mariners in June, he punched out six in 6.0 IP. 
  • Seattle has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the second half and 10th-highest mark vs. righties this season. 

The Mariners’ offence has also been anemic in the second half, posting an MLB-worst 79 wRC+, though their lineup looks much more powerful with the acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez.

Crawford over 0.5 runs (+100): Just because I like Rocker to clear a modest K total doesn’t mean I’m betting against the Mariners. 

Seattle should be able to get to him, especially if he’s handing out free passes. 

And this new-and-improved lineup is rich with thumpers slotting behind their leadoff man, Crawford. 

The outfielder has been abysmal this month, but he’s batting .293 with a strong .376 on-base percentage vs. righties. 

If Crawford gets on base, he’ll be providing these guys with a chance to cash him in:

  • Julio Rodriguez
  • Cal Raleigh
  • Randy Arozarena
  • Naylor
  • Suarez

At plus money, I’ll happily take my chances there.

MLB prop picks made at 4:40 p.m. ET on 07/31/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 31: Back Elly De La Cruz, Kumar Rocker and J.P. Crawford on Thursday

MLB prop bets

There are only two MLB games tonight, but I have three prop picks for the ultra-light slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Elly De La Cruz has a juicy matchup and I expect him to mash at home. I’m also backing a slumping J.P. Crawford, who has the luxury of hitting atop a suddenly stacked Seattle Mariners lineup.

Check out my best MLB prop bets for July 31, featuring a prediction on Kumar Rocker.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-115)

Carlos Carrasco at Great American Ball Park. What could go wrong? Plenty. 

Carrasco, recently acquired from the New York Yankees, is well past his best-before date and making his Atlanta Braves debut at one of the game’s most hitter-friendly venues. 

Wind is expected to be blowing out at the offensive-minded park, making this a terrible spot for the veteran 38-year-old. 

  • Carrasco turned in a 5.91 ERA over eight appearances with the Yankees.
  • He was even worse in the previous two seasons, putting up a 6.18 ERA with a sky-high home run rate and weak strikeout totals. 
  • Once the Cincinnati Reds knock the right-hander out of the game, the Braves will turn to a bullpen that has an MLB-worst 8.10 ERA in the second half.

As for De La Cruz, he’s worth a look in any matchup vs. a righty starter.

The all-star shortstop does most of his damage from the left side, batting .302/.394/.532 with 13 of his 18 homers vs. RHPs. 

To no surprise, the dynamic 23-year-old has been especially strong at home, too.

Key stat: De La Cruz is batting .307 and slugging .500 in Cincinnati.

Embed: #116494

Best MLB picks

Rocker over 4.5 Ks (-130): Rocker turned in an 8.10 ERA over his first five starts this season, leading to his demotion. 

The hyped prospect has left a lot to be desired, but he’s been better since returning in June. 

Rocker has a 4.54 ERA in his past eight starts, striking out nearly a batter per inning. 

He’s battled control issues and generally doesn’t work deep, so there’s some risk here at a price that’s not great. But the hard-throwing righty has upside.

  • Rocker has cleared this line in five of those eight starts and was a big strikeout arm in the minors.
  • When he faced the Mariners in June, he punched out six in 6.0 IP. 
  • Seattle has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the second half and 10th-highest mark vs. righties this season. 

The Mariners’ offence has also been anemic in the second half, posting an MLB-worst 79 wRC+, though their lineup looks much more powerful with the acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez.

Crawford over 0.5 runs (+106): Just because I like Rocker to clear a modest K total doesn’t mean I’m betting against the Mariners. 

Seattle should be able to get to him, especially if he’s handing out free passes. 

And this new-and-improved lineup is rich with thumpers slotting behind their leadoff man, Crawford. 

The outfielder has been abysmal this month, but he’s batting .293 with a strong .376 on-base percentage vs. righties. 

If Crawford gets on base, he’ll be providing these guys with a chance to cash him in:

  • Julio Rodriguez
  • Cal Raleigh
  • Randy Arozarena
  • Naylor
  • Suarez

At plus money, I’ll happily take my chances there.

MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07/31/2025.