Chris Toman

Two starting pitchers and Jackson Holliday headline Tuesday’s best MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Holliday is scuffling but has a great matchup against Walker Buehler and the Boston Red Sox. I expect him to contribute at the top of the lineup for his last-place Baltimore Orioles.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 19, featuring a best bet on Tanner Bibee and a prediction on Jacob Lopez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bibee under 17.5 outs (-129)

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup was left with two massive holes after unloading power bats Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, but the group has still been competent.

• Arizona has above-average offence in the second half, sporting a 104 wRC+. 

• The Diamondbacks have a top-10 slugging mark over that stretch and are 10th in batting average. 

Any lineup featuring Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte near the top has big potential on any given night (both are top 15 in wRC+ this season), especially in Arizona.

Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, making this a tough venue for Bibee to put a rough stretch behind him. 

Cleveland has been asking a lot out of its bullpen of late, but Bibee simply hasn’t been delivering. 

The right-hander has allowed four-plus runs in seven of his last eight starts. He has a 6.00 ERA over that span. 

Bibee’s homer rate has spiked this season, and his K rate has plummeted to a below-league-average number. He hasn’t cleared this line with any sort of consistency this season and is a strong fade candidate at this price.

Key stat: Bibee is 10-14 vs. this line, topping it once since the start of July.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Lopez over 5.5 strikeouts (-120): The Athletics left-hander is impossible to ignore at this number. 

In the second half, the Minnesota Twins have been a below-average offence with an above-average strikeout rate and they’ve struggled to hit southpaws all season. 

Not only are those conditions favourable to Lopez, but he comes in on fire. 

• The 24-year-old hasn’t allowed a run in his last four starts.

• He has gone seven-plus innings in consecutive outings. He struck out nine batters in his last start and 10 in the one before that. 

Lopez has been limited to 84.2 innings but has been one of the game’s best strikeout artists (87th percentile K rate). 

Only eight pitchers who have thrown 80-plus innings have a greater K rate than his 28.9% mark.

Holliday over 0.5 runs (-105): Let’s get this out of the way: Holliday is batting .161 with a .504 OPS this month.

But the second baseman is firmly entrenched as the club’s leadoff man and will bat at a great hitter’s park against a pitcher I don’t trust.

Buehler (5.43 ERA) has been better since July, but still walks way too many, doesn’t strike out enough batters, and has been clobbered by lefties.

Left-handed batters are hitting .317/.402/.458 off Buehler. Holliday will have a platoon advantage and has fared much better vs. righties (.734 OPS vs. .585).

Despite his struggles, Holliday has reached base safely in nine straight, scoring in five consecutive games.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 08/19/2025.

I’m fading two starting pitchers as part of my top MLB prop pick recommendations for Friday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I don’t like the matchups for Clayton Kershaw or Brandon Pfaadt tonight and am not expecting either to deliver length.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 15, featuring a prediction on Matt Chapman.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kershaw under 15.5 outs (-103)

Kershaw’s underlying stats don’t match his 6-2 record and 3.14 ERA. And he runs into a dangerous San Diego Padres club, which has taken over first place in the NL West. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have their big dogs lined up after this: Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are scheduled to start the next three games. 

They were off yesterday, giving their bullpen a breather following heavy workload in their shocking sweep to the Angels. 

The Toronto Blue Jays had Kershaw on the ropes in his last start but he escaped with one run allowed over six innings, marking the second consecutive start he recorded 18 outs. 

Kershaw doesn’t miss bats, isn’t getting hitters to chase and generally pitches in the zone. It leads to plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play.

• The Padres are fourth in the majors in contact rate, per FanGraphs.

• They get punched out at the lowest clip in the NL.

• The club is third in MLB in wRC+ in the second half. 

I don’t like this matchup for Kershaw at all.

Key stat: Kershaw is sporting his highest hard-hit rate since Statcast started tracking in 2015.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Pfaadt under 17.5 outs (-125): I’m rolling with another under on an outs prop in what should be a difficult number for Pfaadt to hit.

• The Arizona Diamondbacks are at Coors Field, the No. 1 offensive environment in MLB.

• They should have some rested bullpen arms after Eduardo Rodriguez gave them seven innings yesterday.

• Pfaadt is 10-14 vs. this number in 2025 despite clearing it in five of his first six outings.

• He has failed to record 18 outs in four consecutive starts and 11 times in his last 14 trips to the mound.

A pair of those unders came against these Colorado Rockies, too.

Pdaadt is struggling this year. He’s been plagued by the long ball, his K rate is down and he enters tonight’s start with a 5.03 ERA.

Top MLB hitting prop

Chapman over 0.5 RBI (+210): Tampa Bay Rays starter Joe Boyle has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher this season and the conditions don’t set up favourably for him, even in a good pitcher’s park.

The 26-year-old’s fly-ball rate is 2% more than the qualified MLB leader, and wind is expected to be blowing out heavily at Oracle Park in San Francisco tonight. 

Boyle served up three bombs in his last start and has severely struggled with control over the last two seasons. 

The Giants have walked at the second-highest clip vs. righties this season, so I’m expecting them to put baserunners on against Boyle.

Based on the weather outlook and Boyle’s fly-ball tendencies, I’m looking for a Giant who has pop and puts the ball in the air. That provides a greater chance at a home run or even a sacrifice fly to help cash this bet. 

There aren’t perfect options, as this isn’t a great-hitting club. But Chapman fits the criteria I’m looking for and comes at a big number. 

• Chapman is a middle-of-the-order bat who has a team-high-tying 13 RBI since the all-star break.

• The third baseman leads the club in slugging and sports an above-average fly-ball rate. 

• He has gone yard 16 times this season, 15 of them vs. righties.

MLB prop picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 08/15/2025.

New York Mets stars Pete Alonso and Juan Soto highlight today’s top MLB prop pick recommendations.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Mets have a plus matchup against Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder and I expect the two sluggers from the Big Apple to do damage.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 14, featuring a prediction on Brenton Doyle.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+104)

I played Alonso on this prop last night in a matchup vs. Braves starter Carlos Carrasco and he delivered. 

Alonso went 3-for-4 with two RBI in a game that the top of the Mets’ lineup produced, despite an 11-6 loss.

I’m back on the Alonso train again and adding Soto to the mix.

New York coughed up what should have been a cakewalk win, hammering Carrasco for six runs and six hits before blowing a 6-0 lead. 

But the Mets have another favourable outlook and a chance at redemption against Elder on Thursday. And Alonso is a man worth targeting right now.

• He’s slugging .556 vs. right-handed pitching and is batting a career-high .272 on the season.

• Alonso has been especially lethal in August, hitting an absurd .386/.408/.886, good for a 1.295 OPS. He’s gone deep six times in 11 games.

Elder has a 6.12 ERA and a whopping 1.62 HR/9 rate. It’s basically what he turned in last year, too, following a strong 2023. The righty posted a 6.52 ERA and a 1.45 HR/9 rate in 2024.

His last 150 innings have been dreadful, and he has allowed five-plus runs in four of his last eight outings.

New York should hit him hard tonight.

Key stat: Alonso has cashed this in four straight and is 7-4 vs. this line in August.

Embed: #117141

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Soto over 1.5 total bases (+110): We know Elder is a plus matchup for opposing hitters. And after Carassco lasted two innings, following a brief four-inning start from Spencer Strider the night before, Elder might have to eat some innings.

That’s great — more looks at an unimposing arm with no swing and miss and below-average metrics across the board sounds appealing. And whenever the Braves bullpen enters, there will be a lot to like there as well.

Atlanta’s bullpen has been worked heavily in the second half, throwing the fifth-most innings and logging the fifth-highest ERA (5.47).

Soto has underwhelmed this season and walks a lot, hurting him on this market, but he has elite batted-ball stats and serious power.

• The star outfielder has gone deep four times this month and is slugging .558 in August.

• He capitalizes on the platoon advantage and punishes righties: 23 of his 29 homers, .547 slugging, .950 OPS.

• Soto has at least one hit in all but one game this month, cashing this prop in six of his last eight contests.

Doyle over 1.5 total bases (+104): Doyle has disappointed following a near-4.0 WAR (FanGraphs) season in 2024, but I like his chances tonight.

The reasons are simple: He’s facing a lefty and will be at home.

Doyle is batting a measly .231/.279/.360, but take a look at his numbers vs. southpaws and when he’s at Coors Field, the top-offensive environment in MLB.

• Vs. LHP: .326/.390/.526
• At home: .309/.344/.509

Doyle and the Rockies get Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 5.68 ERA and was tattooed at home by Colorado in his last start.

Opponents are batting .306 against Rodriguez, who has the highest HR/9 rate of his career.

MLB prop picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 08/14/2025.

I’m backing two sluggers and have a play on Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams as part of my MLB prop pick recommendations for Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Pete Alonso and Max Muncy are on tears and have juicy matchups tonight against a pair of aging arms. I expect them to stay hot.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 13 to see why I’m fading Williams following the best start of his career.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Williams under 17.5 outs (-105)

Williams took a no-hitter into the ninth his last time out. He threw a career-high 126 pitches over 8.2 innings, marking the fourth straight start he cleared this outs total. 

That enormous workload gives me pause, and I don’t trust him to clear a number he fails to top more often than not.

On the season, he’s just below a 50% hit rate vs. a 17.5-out line (11-12).

Williams has an impressive 3.17 ERA, a strong whiff rate and excellent velocity. But until he gets his walks under control, I’m not expecting six-plus innings on the regular.

• The right-hander issued four walks in the near-no-hitter and has walked multiple batters in all but three starts. 

• His 12.6 BB% is the highest mark among qualified starters and he’s been well above the league-average mark in each of his three seasons. 

The Miami Marlins don’t draw a lot of free passes (21st in MLB), but they’ve been a better-than-league-average offence vs. righties. 

Cleveland’s bullpen worked four innings yesterday but was off Monday, so the group shouldn’t be overly taxed ahead of tonight.

Key stat: Since Williams’ debut in 2023, only three pitchers have a higher walk rate (minimum 250 innings).

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+108): I’m endorsing Alonso as one way to fade Atlanta Braves starter Carlos Carrasco.

The veteran right-hander, making his third start for the Braves, was pummeled his last time out: nine hits and six runs over 5.2 innings.

He has a 6.18 ERA in 10 appearances between the Braves and New York Yankees. Last year, his ERA was 5.64, and the year before that, 6.80.

Atlanta’s bullpen hasn’t been good, either, sporting a 5.88 ERA in the second half (27th in MLB).

Carrasco isn’t fooling anyone at this point in his career and is a good bet to surrender plenty of contact.

A red-hot Alonso is among the Mets who can deliver big contact.

• The first baseman (.925 OPS vs. RHPs) is batting .350 and slugging .900 this month.

• His .267 average is the second-best mark of his career and he’s always a big power threat. Alonso has six homers this month and 28 on the season.

Muncy over 1.5 total bases (+120) & 1+ RBI (+133): Like Carrasco, Kyle Hendricks is well past his best-before date.

The righty has pitched much better vs. left-handed batters this year but that hasn’t always been the case, and Muncy is a no-doubter play with a platoon advantage.

Hendricks doesn’t miss bats and doesn’t issue many walks, meaning Dodgers hitters should be challenged in the zone. They’re tied for first in wRC+, and they’ll be at a great hitter’s park, making this a terrible spot for Hendricks at home.

• Muncy has a .983 OPS vs. righties, blasting 15 of his 17 homers off them.

• He’s been a beast in August, batting .348 and slugging .870. He has four homers and eight RBI in nine games, hitting behind the Dodgers’ collection of former MVPs.

MLB prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 08/13/2025.

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Daulton Varsho and two starting pitchers are featured in Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Varsho has pounded righties and finds himself in a favourable situation tonight as the Blue Jays begin a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 12, featuring predictions on Spencer Strider and Robbie Ray.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+148) & 1+ RBI (+160)

I’m double-dipping on Varsho at these plus-money payouts. He has big power and can cash both props with a bomb.

The Blue Jays are back at home and facing a right-hander with a 6.04 ERA. These are the times when Varsho is a Grade-A target. 

• Toronto ranks first in MLB in average and second in wRC+, with its best production coming at home. Rogers Centre has been a top-10 park for offence this season and top five for homers, per Baseball Savant. 

• Cubs starter Ben Brown has been hammered by the long ball this season and has allowed five-plus runs in seven of 19 appearances. Left-handed batters are hitting .299 off him with an .899 OPS.

• Varsho is punishing righties. He’s missed significant time, so we’re only working with a 90 at-bat sample, but the numbers are impressive: all 11 of his homers and slugging .700.

The Blue Jays outfielder is hitting .333/.448/.750 in August. Even if he’s slotted in the lower-third of the lineup, that would still put him behind the club’s best bats: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger.

I’m confident Varsho will come up with runners on base, putting himself in a position to drive runners in.

Key stat: Varsho has cleared 1.5 bases in 47% of his starts. That would be good for a top-20 mark in MLB if qualified.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Ray over 5.5 Ks (+117): Only the Blue Jays have a lower K rate than the San Diego Padres, who are sixth in wRC+ in the second half, leading to this light line for the left-handed strikeout artist.

But getting Ray at plus money on a 5.5 line is nearly unheard of, and it’s enough for me to bite.

• Ray punches out batters at a well-above-average rate, outperforming three-quarters of pitchers in K rate and whiff rate.

• He’s 15-9 against this line on the season and fanned nine Padres when he faced them in June.

The San Francisco Giants’ southpaw will be at his pitcher-friendly home park (2.58 ERA in 12 outings) and generally works deep.

It’s a tough matchup for Ray, but a highly valuable play.

Strider over 6.5 Ks (-113): The bad news: Strider’s K rate is way down from his peak, as is his velocity. And he’s walking too many batters after missing nearly all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. 

But there’s good news ahead of tonight’s start vs. the New York Mets, and it’s this:

• Strider is still missing bats at a near-elite level. He’s in the 85th percentile with a 28.0 K% that ranks 13th among starters (minimum 80 innings). 

• The righty has a near-90th percentile whiff rate with upside, evidenced by a pair of double-digit strikeout games this season. 

And the Braves are letting him routinely hit the 100-pitch mark. If the walks are down and he’s able to contain New York’s offence, he should be able to get the sixth inning. 

With the amount of K opportunities that would create for Strider, I’ll take my chances with him at this number every time. 

The Mets have an elevated K rate in the second half (12th in MLB), and Strider has 16 Ks against them in two starts, clearing this number both times.

MLB prop picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.