Chris Toman

I’m betting on three NL East hitters in Thursday’s best MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I love the matchup for Michael Harris, who I’m backing two ways during a hot run for the Atlanta Braves’ left-handed hitter.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 28, featuring predictions on J.T. Realmuto and Jakob Marsee.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Harris over 1.5 total bases (+115) & 1+ RBI (+190)

Harris is sitting on a sub-.700 OPS as a result of an abysmal start, but take a look at how he’s turned things around.

• Since July 1, a span of 49 games, Harris is batting .311 and slugging .571.

• The outfielder has hit 11 of his 17 homers since the all-star break and has a top-10 ISO (.303) over that stretch (it was .107 in the first half).

He’s generally slotted in the No. 4-6 range in Atlanta’s lineup, a good run-producing spot behind some strong hitters.

I especially like that lineup placement against struggling Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola at a good venue for hitters, Citizens Bank Park, with the wind expected to be blowing out.

Nola (6.52 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) has been hurt, limiting him to 11 starts, and has not been effective when he’s been on the mound.

The Braves have seen him plenty over the years, and opponents are batting .322 off him at home. On the season, left-handed hitters have compiled a .908 OPS.

Behind Nola is a Phillies bullpen that has struggled all year.

Key stat: Harris is slugging .600 off Nola in 32 career plate appearances.

Embed: #117319

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Realmuto 1+ RBI (+132): If I expect Nola to struggle at Citizens Bank Park, you’d better believe I feel the same about his counterpart, Cal Quantrill (5.51 ERA).

The Braves righty is a below-average arm by nearly every meaningful metric, struggles to get pitches by hitters, and has to contend with a top-10 offence in baseball.

Realmuto is having a productive August (.273/.341/.455) and has hit cleanup every game this month. Assuming that holds true tonight, he’ll be slotted behind Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

I’d expect that trio to do damage. But I’m not in love with several of their player prop prices, so this is a roundabout way to bet on them — and Realmuto, who’s in a great lineup spot — at plus money.

And if the Phillies’ bullpen has been bad, Atlanta’s has been horrific. The group’s 5.13 second-half ERA is the third-highest mark in MLB.

If you’re looking for another Phillies target, Avery Perri is betting on Turner to go deep tonight.

Marsee over 1.5 total bases (+170) & 1+ RBI (+245): I’m taking the same approach here as I did with Harris. While I don’t love the matchup the same way, these prices are robust.

The Miami Marlins rookie is obliterating the ball, and the forecast is calling for favourable hitting conditions at Citi Field in New York tonight.

• Marsee made his MLB debut this month and is hitting .356/.422/.667.

• His 1.088 OPS in August is the third-best mark in MLB.

• He’s driven in 24 runs in 26 games.

The Marlins get Clay Holmes, who has been solid but unspectacular. At these prices and with a platoon advantage, the only way I wouldn’t touch Marsee is against a stud.

Marsee, who has been hitting No. 2 or 3 for the last week, has cleared 1.5 bases seven times in his last 10 games.

MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 08/28/2025.

Houston Astros third baseman Carlos Correa highlights the top MLB prop picks for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Correa is on fire, and his Astros have a dream matchup at home against Tanner Gordon and the Colorado Rockies.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 26, featuring predictions on Kerry Carpenter, Patrick Corbin and Hurston Waldrep.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Correa to score (-130)

This is a steep price to pay on a runs scored prop, but this is a plus-plus matchup.

Correa has been on a tear since rejoining Houston at the trade deadline, and there’s little reason to believe he’ll slow down tonight.

Gordon is coming off a surprisingly good start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but has otherwise been terrible. 

• He has a 7.11 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through nine starts. In 2024, he was even worse (8.65, 1.72 in eight starts). 

• Gordon surrenders plenty of hard contact and struggles to miss bats (2nd percentile K rate). 

Houston should put balls in play, and Correa is as good a bet as any Astro to get on base and in position to score. 

Correa is batting .349/.407/.494 in 21 games with Houston. 

He’s reached base safely in all but three of those contests and enters with a nine-game hitting streak. 

Opponents are batting .333/.373/.516 off Gordon and Colorado’s bullpen has a 6.26 ERA in the second half, the worst mark in baseball.

On top of that, there’s a good chance Houston will get its top hitter, Yordan Alvarez, back in the lineup. Alvarez, who hasn’t played since May 2, would surely hit behind Correa.

Key stat: Correa has scored in four straight.

Embed: #117293

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Carpenter over 1.5 bases (-104): I’m turning back to this for a second straight day (Carpenter went 3-for-4 with a double last night).

• Sutter Health Park, home of the Athletics, is the top hitting environment in MLB outside of Coors Field, per Baseball Savant. And wind is expected to be blowing out.

• The Detroit Tigers’ middle-of-the-order bat is slugging .619 over the last 30 days, and .548 vs. righties.

Right-hander Osvaldo Bido will open for the Athletics and likely go multiple frames (he’s thrown three-plus innings of relief twice since Aug. 11).

Bido has a 5.37 ERA, has been rocked at home, and left-handed batters are slugging .550 off him.

Best pitching props

Corbin under 4.5 Ks (+100): Things are starting to catch up to the Texas Rangers lefty, who had an ERA of 5.20 or higher from 2021-24.

Corbin began August with a 3.78 ERA. After four starts this month, it’s ballooned to 4.61.

• He’s gone fewer than five innings in all four starts, walking multiple batters each time and striking out no more than three.

The Angels have the highest K rate in MLB, and Corbin has cleared this in all three starts vs. them.

But he’s not expected to work deep (his outs line is 14.5). And before Jacob deGrom last night, the Rangers got 7.0 innings out of their starters in three straight.

With an off day coming on Thursday, too, there should be no usage concerns for Texas’ bullpen.

Waldrep over 4.5 Ks (+108): The Atlanta Braves rookie has been sensational, recording at least 17 outs in all four of his starts and striking out six-plus batters in three consecutive.

He’ll see the Miami Marlins on Tuesday and stifled them earlier this month. Waldrep allowed one run on four hits, fanning six.

Teammate Spencer Strider failed to clear this line vs. Miami last night, but all three Blue Jays right-handers did over the weekend (Shane Bieber: 9; Jose Berrios: 8; Kevin Gausman: 7).

Waldrep has an elite swing-and-miss splitter, helping him generate a 27.0% K rate (MLB average for starters is 21.6%).

MLB prop picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 08/26/2025.

Starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Emmet Sheehan headline today’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Strider is having a horrific stretch, leading me to fade him against the Miami Marlins. As for Sheehan, I expect him to keep punching batters out.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 25, featuring a prediction on Kerry Carpenter.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Strider under 17.5 outs (-124)

Strider has been obliterated in all three August starts. 

• CHW: 3 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2
• NYM: 4 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 3 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• MIL: 4.2 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 6 K

That’s a 15.43 ERA. Opponents are batting .475 off him this month.

His swing and miss and strikeout numbers have still largely been strong. But even if he can pile up Ks, which he hasn’t been doing as well as previous seasons, that’s a good way to run up a pitch count and prevent him from completing six frames. 

The 26-year-old has struggled with his control, too, which will also hurt him from working deep. He’s walked multiple batters in five of his last seven outings. 

It all adds up to a pitcher who hasn’t been able to top this line consistently. Strider is 7-10 against this number in 2025.

The Marlins aren’t the most potent offence but they’ve been walking at an above-average clip in the second half and have a 103 wRC+ vs. righties. So they aren’t exactly a pushover, either. 

Atlanta’s rotation didn’t have a great weekend, but they were able to keep their reliever usage in check and got six innings out of Bryce Elder yesterday. 

Key stat: Strider has gone under 17.5 outs in five consecutive outings.

Embed: #117245

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Carpenter over 1.5 total bases (-107): Facing J.T. Ginn in his home park as a left-handed batter is a dream matchup, making Carpenter a worthwhile pick on Monday.

The Detroit Tigers’ middle-of-the-order threat is slugging .600 in the second half and .542 vs. right-handers this season.

Sutter Health Park, the No. 2 offensive environment, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors, has not been kind to Ginn.

• The Athletics righty has a 6.75 ERA at home. Opponents are batting .293 off him and he’s allowed nine of his 13 homers.

• Lefties have demolished him, putting up a 1.057 OPS (.339/.424/.633 slash line). In his first taste of the bigs last year, left-handed batters hit .319 off Ginn and slugged .507.

Sheehan over 5.5 Ks (+108): The hard-throwing Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander faces a slumping Cincinnati Reds offence tonight.

Cincinnati has an 80 wRC+ this month (28th in MLB), striking out at the 12th-highest rate. Against righties, the Reds have the seventh-highest K rate in MLB.

This provides some solid value on Sheehan.

• The 25-year-old has a well-above-average 25.8% strikeout rate in 101.1 career innings.

• Sheehan has five-plus Ks in five straight starts (including vs. the Reds), clearing this line in each of his last two.

• He’s in the 70th percentile or better in K, whiff and chase rates.

What I also like: Sheehan is coming off his longest outing of the season and has reached the 90-pitch mark in back-to-back starts. He failed to throw more than 80 pitches in each of his first seven outings.

MLB prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 08/25/2025.

I’m backing Ketel Marte and Brandon Lowe on the same market as part of my favourite MLB prop picks for Friday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I love Lowe’s matchup vs. Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals, making him a worthy play to clear the over on his total bases prop. As for Marte, he’s crushing the ball and provides solid plus-money value at home tonight.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 22, featuring a prediction on Jose Quintana.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lowe over 1.5 total bases (+107)

Lowe enters with his best numbers since 2021, thanks to the damage he’s inflicted against right-handed pitching. 

He has a .552 OPS vs. left-handers, but that soars to .888 with the platoon advantage, fuelled by a .542 slugging percentage. 

Lowe is walking at a career-low rate and facing a pitcher with excellent control and well-below-average strikeout numbers.

Mikolas has been a punching bag the past three seasons.

• His 5.30 expected ERA is the sixth-highest mark among 72 pitchers who have thrown 120-plus innings.

• Mikolas has a 5th-percentile K rate, 3rd-percentile whiff rate and a well-above-average HR/9 rate for the second straight year.

And as Jordan Horrobin writes in Friday’s top home run picks, Lowe hammers four-seamers from righties, a pitch of Mikolas’ that’s been getting destroyed by LHBs.

That sets Lowe up well to not only put the ball in play, but do it with authority.

The conditions are favourable, too.

Modest wind is expected to blow out at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a good hitting environment. We only have one year of data, but the stadium has been an above-average offensive spot and the third-most homer-friendly park in MLB, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Lowe has a top-20 ISO mark vs. righties.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Marte over 1.5 total bases (+112): Marte and the Arizona Diamondbacks get Reds righty Zack Littell, who has a solid 3.52 ERA with even better run-prevention numbers since joining Cincinnati (3.06 ERA in three starts). 

But his xERA is a full run higher and he doesn’t miss bats. That has led to one of the highest contact rates in MLB. Furthermore, he has the fourth-highest HR/9 rate among qualified starters.

Littell is unlikely to fool Marte, a power bat who’s slugging .583 vs. right-handers and ranks fifth in MLB in wRC+. 

Marte is hitting .319/.413/.551 in August, clearing this line in 10 of the 17 games he’s started this month.

Quintana over 4.5 Ks (-117): Quintana isn’t a big strikeout arm but I like this price more than his 17.5 outs line (-139), and I expect him to work deep. 

He’s facing a San Francisco Giants club that has been abysmal vs. southpaws.

• San Francisco’s 74 wRC+ vs. LHPs is the second-worst mark in MLB. The club ranks dead last in average (.210) and on-base percentage (.276).

• The Brewers will be counting on some length from Quintana. They received 4.1 innings out of their starter yesterday, using five relievers. On Wednesday, they got 4.0 innings and deployed four relievers. They had a doubleheader the day before that.

• Quintana has logged six-plus innings in three straight starts and five of his last seven. 

He has only topped this line twice in that stretch but he’s consistently flirting with this number, striking out four-plus batters in more than half his starts.

The Giants have the fourth-highest K rate vs. lefties and have struck out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball this month.

MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 08/22/2025.

Two starting pitchers and Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena are featured in my top MLB prop pick recommendations on Thursday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Pena and the Astros are slumping, but I like them to get on track against a pitcher who just dominated them. As for the starters, I like Sonny Gray‘s matchup and believe context is important when viewing Sean Manaea‘s outs line.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 21.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Manaea over 16.5 outs (-122)

The New York Mets are just at the beginning of a gruelling stretch that sees them play 16 consecutive days in a row. 

Unless they’re shuffling arms back and forth between the minors, they’re going to need their starters to step up to prevent overtaxing the bullpen. 

David Peterson did that against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, though Kodai Senga laboured through five innings last night. 

Peterson, a southpaw like Manaea, took advantage of his plus matchup: 8 IP, 1 R, 10 Ks.

Manaea is set up for a good showing, and I believe he can stay out longer than what we’ve seen from him since making his season debut mid-July. 

• The Nationals have a well-below-average offence vs. lefties, per wRC+, and they’ve struggled at the dish in the second half. 

• Washington ranks 25th in wRC+, 27th in on-base percentage and 27th in home runs.

They aren’t putting runners on and aren’t hitting for pop. And the forecast is calling for a decent amount of wind blowing in, creating favourable pitching conditions.

Manaea has been roughed up three starts in a row and has only cleared this line once. But he has delivered strong K numbers (10.41 K/9) and isn’t issuing free passes. 

Key stat: Manaea was excellent in five July starts, pitching to a 2.08 ERA with a 5.50 K/BB rate.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Gray over 6.5 Ks (+140): I see big value here.

• Gray has a well-above-average 26.9% K rate, ranking in the 81st percentile (per Baseball Savant). 

• He has cleared this line in three straight and gotten to at least six strikeouts in more than half his starts.

• The last three right-handed starters to face the Rays all cleared this number (Justin Verlander, Logan Webb, Cam Schlittler). 

• Tampa has the third-highest K rate in the second half, a sub-.300 OBP and ranks last in wRC+.

Gray can pile up Ks in short outings. But this looks like one where he can also provide length, giving him more strikeout opportunities. 

Pena over 0.5 runs (+105): Baltimore Orioles rookie Brandon Young is coming off the game of his life, taking a perfect game into the eighth inning against the very same Astros he’ll see tonight.

Young’s final line: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K.

He lowered his ERA a full run, but enters tonight’s start at Camden Yards in Baltimore with a mark of 5.68. At home, he’s sitting on an 8.10 ERA through six starts.

The Astros have been dreadful, scoring two runs over their last four games. In their last eight, they’ve been shut out four times and scored more than two runs in a game twice.

Pena, the club’s leadoff hitter, hasn’t provided much since missing all of July, but has stellar season-long splits: .310/.368/.479.

Despite Young’s brilliance last start and Houston’s team-wide slump, this is a great spot for the Astros to right the ship.

And at plus money, I’ll take the table setter in a friendly hitting environment (No. 4 for offence and No. 2 for homers, per Baseball Savant’s park factors).

Baltimore’s bullpen has a 4.93 ERA in the second half (25th in MLB).

MLB prop picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 08/21/2025.

Plays on two starting pitchers and Los Angeles Angels slugger Taylor Ward make up my MLB prop pick recommendations on Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I’m backing NL arms JP Sears, who has a juicy matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants, and red-hot Atlanta Braves rookie Hurston Waldrep.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 20.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Sears over 4.5 Ks (-132)

The southpaw is making his second start with the San Diego Padres since coming over in a blockbuster deal with the Athletics at the trade deadline.

His first start didn’t exactly go well:

• 5 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 K

But I can stomach that line with context. He faced a tough Arizona Diamondbacks offence that has the lowest K rate in MLB vs. lefties at hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Sears fell one K shy of this line and was allowed to stay out for 94 pitches.

That broke a streak of five consecutive outings topping this line (he punched out six-plus batters in four of them).

Sears has a much more favourable matchup tonight against the Giants, who have been putrid vs. left-handers and strike out at one of the highest rates in the game. He fanned six vs. them in July.

• San Francisco’s 75 wRC+ vs. lefties is the second-worst mark in MLB.

• The Giants have struck out in 25.6% of their plate appearances against LHPs. Only two teams have a higher K rate.

Lefty teammate Nestor Cortes cleared this vs. San Francisco on Monday, and righty Nick Pivetta fanned 11 Giants last night.

Key stat: Sears is 7-3 vs. this line over his last 10 starts.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Waldrep over 17.5 outs (-112): The 23-year-old is making his fourth appearance of the season, and the results have so far been excellent.

Waldrep pitched in relief in his season debut on Aug. 2 vs. the Cincinnati Reds before joining the rotation a week later.

• @ CLE: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K
• Vs. MIA: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K
• @ CIN: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K

He gets the last-place Chicago White Sox tonight, and perhaps they aren’t the most fadable bunch at the moment after destroying Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder on back-to-back nights.

But Strider appears lost at the moment and Elder is one of the game’s most hittable starters.

Chicago remains the third-worst offence in MLB vs. righties, per wRC+, and Waldrep — a 2023 first-round pick — was sizzling in the minors ahead of his promotion.

The matchup is right, and Atlanta has only gotten a combined 11.2 innings from its starters over its last three games. The bullpen could use a breather, having thrown the third-most innings in the second half.

Taylor Ward over 0.5 RBI (+145): Ward is entrenched as the Angels’ cleanup hitter, creating plenty of run-producing opportunities.

The big righty bat has cashed in on those in the second half and been one of the game’s most productive hitters.

• 27 RBI (3rd in MLB)
• 164 wRC+ (10th)
• .287 ISO (16th)

Ward is hitting .277 with an .899 OPS since the start of July. His 92 RBI are tied with Aaron Judge for fifth in MLB.

The Angels get Reds starter Nick Martinez, who isn’t a big bat misser (14th percentile) and enters with a 4.73 ERA. L.A. should get to him at home.

MLB prop picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 08/20/2025.